Pakistan’s Foreign Policy seeks to protect, promote and advance Pakistan’s national

interests in the external domain. The Foreign Ministry contributes towards safeguarding
Pakistan’s security and advancing Pakistan’s development agenda for progress and
prosperity following the guiding principles laid out by our founding fathers.

Quaid-e-Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah, the Founder of Pakistan and its first Governor
General, in a broadcast talk to the people of the USA in February 1948, outlined the
following goals of Pakistan’s foreign policy:

“Our foreign policy is one of friendliness and goodwill towards all the nations of the world.
We do not cherish aggressive designs against any country or nation. We believe in the
principle of honesty and fair play in national and international dealings and are prepared to
make our utmost contribution to the promotion of peace and prosperity among the nations of
the world. Pakistan will never be found lacking in extending its material and moral support to
the oppressed and suppressed peoples of the world, and in upholding the principles of the
United Nations Charter.”

The Constitution of Pakistan also lays down guidelines for the conduct of foreign policy of
the country. Article 40 of the constitution provides that:
“The State shall endeavour to preserve and strengthen fraternal relations among Muslim
countries based on Islamic unity, support the common interests of the peoples of Asia, Africa
and Latin America, promote international peace and security, foster goodwill and friendly
relations among all nations and encourage the settlement of international disputes by
peaceful means.”
The foreign policy of Pakistan is primarily directed to the pursuit of national goals of seeking
peace and stability through international cooperation. Special emphasis is laid on economic
diplomacy to take advantages offered by the process of globalization as also to face the
challenges of the 21st century. Our foreign policy is also geared to project the image of the
country as a dynamic and moderate society. The foreign policy of Pakistan seeks to promote
the internationally recognized norms of interstate relations, i.e. respect for sovereignty and
territorial integrity of all States, non-interference in the internal affairs of other State; non-
aggression and peaceful settlement of disputes. Pakistan has therefore always sought to
develop friendly and cordial relations with all countries of the world.
o Promotion of Pakistan as a dynamic, progressive, moderate, and democratic Islamic
country.
o Developing friendly relations with all countries of the world, especially major powers
and immediate neighbors.
o Safeguarding national security and geo-strategic interests, including Kashmir.
o Consolidating our commercial and economic cooperation with international
community.
o Safeguarding the interests of Pakistani Diaspora abroad.
o Ensuring optimal utilization of national resources for regional and international
cooperation.
For the past 76 years Pakistan has adopted an India centric and west oriented approach in
defining its foreign engagements. Where it has rather neglected its immediate neighbors in
quest of finding security by reaching out to West vis a vis India. With Afghanistan there is a
persistent struggle to have a friendly government in Kabul and with Iran the tenure of
relationship has been rather short and less than even. The only consistent friendly relations
that country has enjoyed are with China throughout all these years

However, in all these years the world has changed in many ways and it is time that Pakistan
should shift its foreign Policy approach from security to economic development to release
itself from the shekels of IMF loans. It would rather be prudent for a nuclear power to have
confidence in developing its relations with not only its immediate neighbors but also with far
neighbors and brotherly countries in its best interests.

The surge in global geopolitical tensions, the US-China rivalry, two ongoing wars and an
unravelling world order with a global economic volatility has put a new dimension to
international stability. Therefore, at a time where the world is already unsettled and in a flux,
Country’s new foreign minister Ishaq Dar has to deal with a lot of complex issues at hand but
the first step should be to take a broad review of foreign policy and adopt necessary
flexibility in formulating a more robust foreign policy that seeks to revive economic
development at its priority.

Pakistan’s foreign policy has been a series of ad hoc responses to regional and global
developments rather than a well-considered and coherent approach, which requires a
neighbors-first approach in which repair relations with India and other neighbors is a must. In
doing so Kashmir policy and India policy should become two distinct streaks as a favorable
solution to the Kashmir dispute is not possible in the current circumstances but this should
not impede the process of normalizing ties with India.

A neighbors-first approach would also require a reversal of the downward course of relations
with Afghanistan where Pakistan should be ready to understand Afghan dependency on
Pakistani ports for trade. Pakistan needs to follow a principled approach towards
Afghanistan with a possible consideration of extending the Taliban government diplomatic
recognition and extending the infrastructure of railroads and highways toward Afghanistan
under CPEC to boost mutual dependency and economic activity between the two immediate
neighbors.

With Iran, the relationship needs to be further strengthened to reap the benefits of the Iran-
Pakistan pipeline project. The Gwadar and Chabahar ports need to be developed as sister
ports. The Late Iranian President’s visit aimed to boost trade and resolve border issues
proving that countries in the new world order are ready to let go of their traditional approach
to make space for better engagements and mend ties.

However, Pakistan also needs to crest a balance while engaging with Iran and Saudi Arabia
as under Saudi Vision 2030 Pakistan is ready to welcome an investment package of $5
billion from Saudi Arabia in different projects, the profitability of which is estimated in the
range of 14% to 15% with some falling in the profitability of 19-20%.

Whereas, at the global level Pakistan will have to navigate its way through US-China rivalry
to strike a balance between reaping the benefits of the Chinese mega project CPEC and
ensuring long-term strategic ties with the US. Pak Relations with China will no doubt remain
Islamabad’s overriding strategic priority but in future, it will need consistent reinforcement to
keep them on a positive track as past terrorist attacks on Chinese nationals working on
CPEC projects put a serious question mark on the safety of thousands of Chinese citizens
working on the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Whereas ties with the US
continue to be Pakistan’s most critical bilateral relationship the context has diversely
changed after the US military withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021. Pakistan needs to find a
space between the Pakistan-China strategic relationship and the growing US-India
partnership to foster cooperation and redefine and restructure its ties with the US.

With a need to extend the neighbors-first policy, there is also a need to put efforts to revive
the SAARC process to let the world know that South Asia has the potential to emerge as a
rising economic market. In a multipolar world, it is high time that Pakistan revive its
traditional foreign policy paradigm and engage with more countries and actors beyond
governments to accomplish foreign policy goals and have a strong diplomatic strategy for
future challenges.

Pakistan's foreign policy has been marked by a complex balancing process--the result of its
history, religious heritage, and geographic position. The primary objective of that policy has
been to preserve Pakistan's territorial integrity and security, which have been in jeopardy
since the state's inception.
A new era began with the partition of British India in 1947 and the formation of two
independent, sovereign states--India and Pakistan. Both nations searched for their place in the
world order and aspired to leadership roles beyond the subcontinent.
India and Pakistan became adversaries at independence and have so remained. The two
countries fought each other shortly after partition, in 1965, and in 1971, causing the
dismemberment of Pakistan and the creation of still another new sovereign entity--
Bangladesh. India-Pakistan rivalry intensified rather than diminished after the Cold War, and
the Kashmir territorial dispute remains dangerous and recurrent.
Pakistan sought security through outside alliances. The new nation painstakingly worked on
building a relationship with the United States, in which the obligations of both sides were
clearly defined. The Western-oriented, anticommunist treaties and alliances Pakistan joined
became an important part of its foreign policy. Pakistan also saw itself as a vanguard of
independent Muslim states.
The 'Foreign policy of Pakistan', Sets out in the way it interacts with foreign nations and to
determine its standard of interactions for its organizations, corporations and individual
citizens

Historical overview
Since its establishment in 1947, Pakistan's foreign policy has encompassed difficult relations
with the Soviet Union (USSR) who maintained a close military and ideological interaction
with the neighboring countries such as Afghanistan (in the West) and India (in East) as well
as East-Pakistan. During most of 1947–1991, the USSR support was given to India;
especially on the core-issue of Kashmir, over which it has fought three wars.During 1960s,
Pakistan's relations with East Pakistan and the neighboring Afghanistan have also been
extremely difficult due to the two latter's contest over the Durand Line. The relations with
Iran, Saudi Arabia and China remains extremely important and based on the extensive
cooperation in national security and economical interests in the Persian Gulf and wide-
ranging bilateral relations with the United States and other Western countries. With the
growing influence of USSR in the region, Pakistan cemented close security relations with
China in Asia and Poland in Europe during most of the Cold war. While Pakistan's had "on-
off relations" with the United States, Pakistan assisted President Nixon reapproach with
China and other East Asian countries.

Pakistan is an active member of the United Nations. It was a member of the CENTO and
SEATO military alliances. Its alliance with the United States was especially close after the
Soviets invaded the neighboring country of Afghanistan. In 1964, Pakistan signed the
Regional Cooperation for Development (RCD) Pact with Turkey and Iran, when all three
countries were closely allied with the U.S., and as neighbors of the Soviet Union, wary of
perceived Soviet expansionism. To this day, Pakistan has a close relationship with Turkey.
RCD became defunct after the Iranian Revolution, and a Pakistani-Turkish initiative led to
the founding of the Economic Cooperation Organisation (ECO) in 1985.

What are the main objectives of Pakistan’s foreign policy?

Following are the main objectives of Pakistan's Foreign Policy:

1. The Maintenance of Pakistan's Sovereignty

The sovereignty means the supreme power which is eternal, universal, indivisible,
imperceptible and the most supreme in its existence.
The foreign policy is formulated by the head of the government and foreign minister of the
country. In some countries, the legislature has considerable oversight as well. These policy
makers, in Pakistan, have strove to maintain the sovereignty of Pakistan in the document of
Foreign Policy excessively. The policy makers have preserved the sovereignty and
independence of Pakistan in international milieu in connection with its economic,
technological, industrial and also the its cosmopolitan civilization.

2. The Regional Integrity

The regional integrity is the objective of every country's foreign policy. Pakistan's foreign
policy makers and decision makers have safeguarded the regional integrity of Pakistan as
well. It discusses its concern over Afghanistan alternatively in different stances, but clearly
calls it important for the existence of Pakistan, and being an Islamic country it shares a
amicable stance with Afghanistan.

3. Energy Security
With almost concerning the neighbor Afghanistan, Pakistan has tried to secure her energy
interests as well through the different treaties as ECO. Pakistan is involved with Central
Asian and Middle Eastern countries for her energy interests. Saudi Arabia is the largest
exporter of Petroleum to Pakistan.

Pakistan in terms of population statistics is the second largest Muslim Country after
Indonesia; it is also the only Muslim country with the status of being a nuclear power and
hence plays an important part in International Politics. Pakistan has a direct, independent
foreign policy specifically when it comes to developing nuclear weapons, military purchases
from foreign countries and other issues which are important to its national interests. Pakistan
has a great advantage of having a strategic geo-political location in the center of the world's
major maritime oil supply lines, and is located near the oil rich central Asian states. Pakistan
is also an essential member of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation and a vital non NATO
ally in the War against terrorism. The state also has a highly orderly military; in fact it is the
world's eighth largest military force.

In history Pakistan has had difficult relations with India, specifically because of the central
issue of Kashmir; it has even fought two wars because of this reason. Conversely it has had
strong allied relationships with its other neighboring countries like Afghanistan, Iran and
China; it has also had solid security and economic interests in the Persian Gulf and long
stretching two-sided relations with US and other Western states.

Because of the suspicion of Soviet expansion, Pakistan has had strong relations with both
United States of America and China during most of the Cold-War. Even today they are close
friends of the nation. Coming to the Foreign policy of Pakistan well it is centered on the
peace and security objectives at regional and global levels; its main purpose is socio-
economic progress of the state. In affirmation with the UN charter and international duties
Pakistan seeks alliance and tries to cooperate in its foreign relations on the grounds of
sovereignty, respect and benefit, noninterference and peaceable settling of conflicts.

Pakistan's foreign policy is guided by its colorful history, its strategic location and the aims of
its people. It has a proactive foreign policy, due to the challenges it faces, even though there
is little continuity, change at times is also given importance. The policy at times is reactive to
international happenings. The main objectives on the foreign policy include development of
good relations with Muslim states, superpowers and neighbors as well, to protect the security
and strategic interests of the nation, to aid the resolution of the key conflict of Jammu and
Kashmir according to the needs of the Kashmiri people and the UN resolution, to promote a
progressive, democratic image of Pakistan and finally to promote the state's economic and
commercial interests.

Historically the country has had friendly relations with all Arab and Muslim countries under
the OIC organization. Other than Muslim and Arab countries China and US area also allies of
Pakistan. Coming to its Rivals, Pakistan has fought 3 wars with India, while Pakistan an
Israel have no diplomatic relations. The continuing conflict of Kashmir is what creates
diversity of opinion and makes alliance very difficult in both these rival states.

Pakistan's Strategic and Foreign Policy Objectives

Key Points
Pakistan’s foreign policy initiatives are an attempt to preserve the state’s legitimacy,
stability and security, by:
 • Attempting to secure access to new sources of energy, both domestically and
regionally with Iran and Central Asia.
• Viewing Iran as an important source of energy, a counterweight to Balochi
secessionists, and a strategically important land corridor to access western
Afghanistan and the western Central Asian region through Turkmenistan, the
Caucasus region, Asia Minor and the Middle East.
• Seeing its relations with China as critical to its future strategic security, internal
stability and economic prosperity.
• Seeking to prevent India from being a perceived threat to its regional strategic
interests. It is likely to contest, limit and possibly even prevent Indian influence, where
possible.
• Trying to position itself to influence any future Afghan government and to prevent the
Taliban from further destabilising Pakistan.
• Recognising the need for continued US financial assistance and diplomatic support,
which is vitally important for Pakistan’s economic security and stability, and also
offers a means to influence India’s foreign policy.

Summary
In recent years Pakistan’s foreign policy has steadily transformed from one that was limited
in regional scope, largely towards the Middle East and South Asia, to a policy that is moving
towards developing and strengthening relations with China, Iran, Central Asia and Russia.
The changing priorities behind Pakistan’s strategic interests haveemphasisedthe need to
secure: new sources of energy; new markets for its products, services and labour; a
favourable balance of power in the region; a way to contain and limit India’s expanding
regional influence; and the necessity to retain an amicable relationship with the US.

Analysis
Energy Security
In addition to concerns over Afghanistan, increasingly on the minds of senior Pakistani
decision makers, is a growing awareness about meeting the nation’s escalating energy
demands. For example, with demand reportedly three times greater than supply, the energy
shortfall has had a major impact on industry and has regularly forced businesses to cease
operations. Pakistan imports 85 per cent of its oil and has relied heavily upon Middle Eastern
countries to acquire energy; such as Saudi Arabia, which is Pakistan’s largest supplier of
petroleum. Given these considerations, the need to secure new energy sources will also
remain a fundamental goal of Pakistan’s foreign policy.

Currently, Pakistan has been aggressively seeking to exploit new petroleum and gas reserves
both domestically and regionally. The Pakistani state-owned Oil and Gas Development,
which extracts and produces 60 per cent of Pakistan’s domestic oil, is actively prospecting for
new reserves in the resource-rich but restive Balochistan Province. ‘We are following a very
aggressive exploration policy,’ said the company’s Chief Executive Shah Mehboob Alam.
The low intensity insurgency being waged by Balochi secessionists, however, has slowed the
pace of exploration operations.

Similarly, in its quest to secure energy Pakistan has also looked towards Iran, which is also
strategically important to Pakistan as a land corridor to the Middle East, Asia Minor, the
Caucasus and the western Central Asian region. It has accordingly sought to upgrade
relations significantly. For some time, both Iran and Pakistan have been engaged in
improving communications and transport links to strengthen relations. For example, in 2009
Iran provided US$72.3 million to lay a 170 kilometre transmission line to export 1000 MW
of electricity to Pakistan. More recently, in 2010, Pakistan signed a deal with Iran worth
US$7.6 billion, to build the long-delayed pipeline project to pump 750 million cubic feet of
natural gas daily from the South Fars field to Pakistan by mid-2015. The initiative was hailed
by Pakistan's Petroleum and Natural Resources Minister Naveed Qmar, who regarded it as ‘a
milestone toward meeting energy needs of the country.’ Bilateral trade between the two
countries has also grown from around US$500 million in 2005 to approximately US$2.3
billion in 2009.

A by-product of stronger relations has been enhanced bilateral security cooperation,

especially in relation to countering Balochi secessionists, who present an intractable problem
for both countries

Given the instability in southern Afghanistan, Iran is also increasingly important to Pakistan
as a land route to the countries of western Central Asia, namely, Turkmenistan,Kazakhstan
and Uzbekistan. Through this link, Pakistan has been able to access Turkmenistan’s market
more readily than it has in the cases of Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. ‘Presently
these relations are being restrained by the absence of fast, smooth and cheap transport
system. At present trade is being handled by air which is not a cheap way,’ said a senior
Pakistani trade official. Yet Pakistan has demonstrated a strong interest in importing
electricity from Turkmenistan and in joint-venture partnerships to develop Turkmenistan’s
South Yolotan-Osman gas field.

In addition to Iran, Pakistan has also looked to Central Asia to secure energy and access to
new markets. Since 2010, Pakistan has embarked on a diplomatic offensive to enhance its
relations with such Central Asian countries as Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan,
Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. It has signed a number of bilateral and multilateral
agreements. ‘The process is underway to boost relations with Russia and Central Asian
Republics,’ said Shah Mahmood Qureshi, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister.

In the same year Pakistan’s Central Asian ambitions were given greater impetus when it
joined the 10 member Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation. Pakistan is increasingly
interested in expanding relations with the Central Asian states to exploit its geo-strategic
position as a corridor to the Indian Ocean. This has particularly become the case with the new
Chinese-built port facility at Gwadar.

For Pakistan to access Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, it requires the cooperation of Afghanistan
to use the Wakhan Corridor, a narrow strip of land belonging to Afghanistan that borders
Tajikistan, western China and Pakistan. In recent times both Pakistan and Tajikistan have
moved upon their longstanding interest to build the 1306 km long Pakistan-Tajikistan
Highway, to link the Tajik capital of Dushanbe to the Karakoram Highway in Pakistan. There
are also indications that Tajikistan remains eager to export energy. One example is the
CASA-1000 power project signed in March 2011, which aims to transmit 1000 MW of
surplus electricity from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to Pakistan, by a 750 km transmission line.
As seen in April 2011, Tajikistan has similarly offered to help Pakistan fund and build 600
MW and 220 MW hydro plants.

As part of its Central Asia focus, Pakistan is also looking towards expanding trade relations
with Russia, which is also reportedly seeking to expand trade and access routes to new
markets throughout the region. As reported in Dawn late last year, the Chairman of the
Pakistan-Russia Business Council, Muhammad Farooq Afzal, affirmed: ‘Russia is keen on
funding infrastructure projects such as roads, rail and energy in Tajikistan, Afghanistan and
Pakistan. The positive results of the meeting will give access to Tajikistan and Russia for
Pakistani ports and in return Pakistan will get access to the Central Asian markets and rich
Siberian regions through road and rail. With a population of 145 million, and a consumer
market of 1.27 trillion dollars, the Russian Federation is an enormous market. Together with
the neighbouring countries, Russia and is a potential market in the field of textile and
garments, rice, leather, sport goods, surgical equipment and pharmaceuticals. If an aggressive
export strategy is adopted, Pakistan can raise its consumer goods export to Russia up to one
billion dollars within a year.’ Since then efforts to improve relations have led both countries
to establish an inter-governmental commission to examine the potential to enhance trade and
economic ties.

China-Pakistan Relations
Over the last decade Pakistan’s strategic partnership with China has become increasingly
important to its future security, stability and prosperity. ‘The Pakistan-China relationship is
much more than a strategic confluence of interests between two countries,’ affirmed Pakistani
President Asif Ali Zardari in early 2009. Similarly, in February 2010 Pakistan’s Foreign
Minister, Makhdoom Shah Mahmood Qureshi, told an audience at the Shanghai Institute of
International Studies: ‘Pakistan-China relationship has three constituents: strategic
partnership; economic cooperation, and people to people contacts. In this calculus, the
security dimension has been the strongest; but now the two sides are making conscious
efforts to underpin this relationship with strengthened economic cooperation, and deepened
cultural interaction at the level of the people.’
Although modern bilateral relations with China and Pakistan have fluctuated since they
officially began in 1951, there has been a notable strengthening of relations after the US
intervention in Afghanistan in 2001. Spanning the period from 1999 to 2009, there have been
a number of key examples of Chinese investment and support such as: assistance with the
construction of a 300-MW nuclear power plant in Punjab Province; a joint-venture
partnership in developing and producing the Al-Khalid-2000 Main Battle Tank and the JF-17
Thunder multi-role fighter aircraft; provision of $198 million out of $248 million to build
Gwadar port; signing of a bilateral free trade agreement; co-operation in civil-nuclear
technology as demonstrated by the Khusab Nuclear Programme; acquisition of modern
Chinese-built F-22P frigates; initiatives to build a fibre-optic line, an oil and gas pipeline, and
a rail track connecting Gwadar to China; and the provision of an EXIM Bank loan of US$105
million for Pakistan Railways to purchase 75 Chinese-made locomotives.

By 2010 bilateral trade had increased to US$7 billion, up from US$2 billion in 2002, and
both countries have since announced plans to increase this further to US$15 billion by late
2011. Since 2010, over sixty Chinese companies have been operating in Pakistan on 122
projects, involving some 11,000 Chinese businessmen, engineers, technicians and workers.

In the same year China offered to invest US$10 billion in Pakistan for two hydro-power
projects to generate 7,000 and 12,000 MW. Similarly, in December 2010, China again signed
22 new agreements with Pakistan as part of its agenda to further expand trade and
cooperation. They covered agriculture and livestock, banking and finance, civil aviation,
culture, diplomacy, electronics, energy, mining, politics and space technology.

India-Pakistan Rivalry
Although it is now more than six decades since both countries attained independence, India
and Pakistan have not achieved a satisfactory relationship, despite several attempts to do so.
Instead, there have been tensions from the Cold War era, three major wars, a nuclear arms
race, the perennial dispute over Kashmir and strains over water sharing rights. Conversely,
although both countries have engaged in posturing over Kashmir and issues of national
security such as terrorism, it remains to be seen whether either Pakistan or India would want
a major conventional conflict. Indeed, there are proponents in both countries who advocate
reconciliation, and although the prospects of normalising relations appear remote at this
stage, such an outcome in future may not be completely unrealistic.

Currently, trade relations between India and Pakistan are small but have shown signs of
growth over the last decade; in 2000 trade was an estimated US$500 million, but by 2008 it
was reportedly over US$2 billion. As suggested by a report published by the Washington-
based Peterson Institute for International Economics, this figure does not include indirect
trade to Pakistan via other countries, such as Dubai, Oman and Iran. Clearly, the likely
benefits for both countries of normalising relations are substantial, as the trade flows under
optimum conditions reportedly have the potential to reach over US$40 billion annually.
Similarly, the normalisation of relations also has the potential to benefit both countries from
the standpoint of energy initiatives, such as the proposed Iran-Pakistan-India and the
Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline projects.

But for dialogue to succeed, both countries need to harmonise their conflicting strategic
interests and also find means to engage in dialogue without serious domestic political fallout.
For example, Pakistan has grown uneasy about India’s growing presence in Central Asia; for
example: the use of an air base in Tajikistan since 2002; defence cooperation programmes
with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan;and India’s initiatives to access and exploit mineral and
energy reserves in the region.

Some Pakistani officials are also concerned with other Indian initiatives in the region,
namely: the provision of concessional loans to Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, such as the US$17
million loan to Tajikistan for the modernisation of hydroelectric infrastructure; the provision
of financial aid to develop a trans-Afghan highway and railroad; a highway linking
Turkmenistan, Afghanistan and Iran to the Persian Gulf port of Chah Bahar, which is also
being upgraded and expanded with significant Indian aid. But, while India’s presence in
Central Asia is of increasing concern, Pakistan appears to be most alarmed by India’s
expanding inroads in Afghanistan.

Afghanistan-Pakistan Relations
Due to Afghanistan’s location, the outcome of the US-led intervention in shaping the current
and future political and security environment is of critical importance to Pakistan. In line with
this, Pakistan has traditionally sought to retain a zone of influence, or buffer, which it has
done historically with elements of the ethnic-Pashtun population. It would appear that such a
policy was pursued with a view to sustaining Pakistan’s internal security and stability.
Similarly, Pakistan would also be looking to influence an Afghan government to ensure that it
does not support any dissident elements that are detrimental to Pakistan’s security.

In this sense, Pakistan could possibly adopt a number of strategies that are intended to shape
Afghanistan’s security environment in a manner that aligns with its core interests: co-opt or
accommodate key Taliban factions by supporting the movement generally; restrict the
movement’s influence to the Afghan side of the border; or to militarily confront the Taliban.
At this stage it would appear that the second option is the most likely, with the last option the
least likely.

In today’s context Pakistan’s economic interests in Afghanistan remain modest. There are
reportedly over 100,000 Pakistani professionals and skilled workers who reside and work
there. Two-way trade between the countries is estimated at US$1.5 billion and, in 2010, both
Pakistan and Afghanistan showed serious interest in improving transport infrastructure by
jointly constructing the Chaman-Kandahar and the Peshawar-Jalalabad rail links. Similarly,
for some time now Pakistan has granted Afghanistan transit rights to India for its exports.
Recently, Pakistan has also demonstrated serious interest in seeking transit rights through
Afghanistan to Tajikistan, by building a highway and railway through the Wakhan Corridor.

These Pakistani initiatives, however, appear to be partly a reaction to counter India’s growing
influence in Afghanistan. Since the US-led intervention first began in 2001, India is known to
have opened four consulates throughout Afghanistan, in Herat, Jalalabad, Kandahar and
Mazar-e-Sharif. Today, as emphasised by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in
Washington, India’s presence can be summarised by the following examples: growth of
bilateral trade, which in early 2008 was worth US$358 million; the provision of US$1.2
billion to fund infrastructure development projects, such as the Zaranj-Delaram highway,
Salma Dam power project in Heart Province, and Afghanistan’s new parliament; the presence
of over 4,000 Indian engineers, labourers and security personnel (reportedly including 500
Indian policemen), working on various development projects; involvement in training Afghan
police, civil servants and diplomatic staff; and further assistance in the spheres of education,
health, energy, telecommunications and transport.

Such a large Indian presence has also invited Taliban hostility, given India’s traditional
support to the Northern Alliance, which has resulted in numerous attacks against Indian
nationals engaged in development and reconstruction work. To complicate matters further,
India has also accused Pakistan’s covert intelligence agency, Inter-Services Intelligence, of
encouraging Taliban hostility. Some US reports have gone as far as to suggest that Pakistan
and India are engaged in a “shadow war” in Afghanistan, but these allegations appear to be
unsubstantiated. Nonetheless, what remains evident and appears to be intensifying, is the
India-Pakistan rivalry, which, if left unaddressed, could have major and destabilising
implications for the region’s future.

US-Pakistan Relations
Despite the huge investment of financial, material and human resources the US has provided
to Pakistan, the strain in relations has steadily grown with each passing year of the war in
Afghanistan. This was exemplified in early 2010 by Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Qureshi,
who reportedly stated on two separate occasions: ‘We have already done too much …
Pakistan has done its bit, we have delivered.’ Similarly, after a meeting with US officials,
Qureshi affirmed: ‘A very strong perception in Pakistan that, despite our very good relations,
the United States has not paid sufficient attention to Pakistan’s concerns, security concerns
vis-à-vis India.’

Such sentiment has persisted even though the US provides Pakistan with more foreign aid
than it does most other countries. According to a US congressional report published in June
2010, titled: Pakistan: Key Current Issues and Developments, by mid-2010 Pakistan had
received nearly US$10.5 billion in aid since 2001, and an additional US8.5 billion in
“reimbursements” for counter-terrorism operations.
Efforts by the US to enhance bilateral relations by engaging in a number of strategic
initiatives and dialogues, such as: the United States-Pakistan Trade and Investment Council,
under the US-Pakistan Trade and Investment Agreement signed in 2003; and, more recently,
the US-Pakistan Joint Trade Study Group; the US-Pakistan Strategic Dialogue; and the yet to
be formed US-Pakistan Bilateral Investment Treaty, have had mixed results. This can
particularly be seen by the trade figures for 2010, which stand at US$5.4 billion and remain
well short of Pakistan’s rapidly growing trade with China.

Nonetheless, Pakistan is likely to be concerned over the long-term status of US financial

support, especially after the US seeks to withdraw from Afghanistan. It will, therefore,
continue to impress on the US the need to ensure Pakistani stability; recognising Pakistan’s
nuclear capability and its potential as a haven for radical groups. Indeed, the US withdrawal
from Afghanistan could be detrimental to Pakistan, given that it is dependent on significant
US economic aid, and also on revenue generated as a major supply route for US
expeditionary forces in Afghanistan.

In the event of a US withdrawal from Afghanistan, it is possible that Pakistan will still seek to
maintain amicable relations with the US, however strained they may be. Hence, this would be
partly to ensure continued US aid, but also to diminish the probability of the US strongly
aligning itself with India.

Pakistan is part of a rapidly changing region that is characterized by political instability,

insurgency and serious acts of terrorism. It also has significant energy, population, and food
and water challenges. Whether it is able to achieve its strategic and foreign policy objectives
remains to be seen. What is clear, however, is that Pakistan is increasingly embracing new
allies other than the West.