Prob-Stat(MA20205)/CT/1

Fill in the blanks (Numerical)

Date of Exam : 04th Sep, 2022
Time : SLOT A
Duration : 40min
No of questions: 5 out of 10 questions
Type: Random-sequential (navigation allowed)
Each question carries 2 marks

September 2, 2022

A Q41. A box contains 2 white balls and 1 red ball. A person draws 2 balls at random with replacement.
What is the probability that both the drawn balls are white given that at least one them is white?
(Answer should be correct up to three decimal places. error range: 0.005)

ANSWER: 0.5
ERROR RANGE: 0.005
2
3 ⇥ 23 1
ANS: Conditional probability is = .
( 23 )2 + 2 ⇥ 23 ⇥ 1
3
2
A Q43. In a penalty shoot-out of a football match, suppose 5 penalties will be taken independently. If the
probability of shooting successfully is 0.4, then what is the probability that at least 3 shootings will
be successful? (Answer should be correct up to three decimal places. error range: 0.005)

ANSWER: 0.31744
ERROR RANGE: 0.005
5 5
The probability is 3 ⇥ (.4)3 ⇥ (.6)2 + 4 ⇥ (.4)4 ⇥ .6 + (.4)5
= (.4)3 ⇥ 4.96
= .317

A Q46. Suppose a person is at a bus stand at 10 p.m., waiting for the last bus. Let the amount of time (in
minutes) the person has to wait for bus, be a random variable with the probability density function as
follows

1
 8 x
< e ,
>
0 < x < 3,
3
f (x) = e 1
>
:0, otherwise .
What is the expected amount of waiting time (in minutes) the person has to wait? (Answer should be
correct up to three decimal places. error range: 0.005)

ANS: 2.157187
ERROR RANGE: 0.005
2e3 + 1
ANSWER: 3 = (2 ⇤ exp(3) + 1)/(exp(3) 1) = 2.157187
e 1

A Q47. Two integers are chosen at random from 1, 2, . . . , 6 without replacement. Let X be the absolute value
of the di↵erence of those two numbers. What is the expected value of X? (Answer should be correct
up to three decimal places. error range: 0.005)

ANSWER: 2.3333
ERROR RANGE: 0.005
ANS: P (X = 1) = 10 8
30 , P (X = 2) = 30 , P (X = 3) =
6
30 , P (X = 4) = 4
30 , P (X = 5) = 2
30 .
P5
Then EX = i=1 iP (X = i) = 37 = 2.3333.

A Q62. Suppose there are four letters and four labelled envelopes. If someone randomly assigns letters to the
envelopes, such that each envelop contains only one letter. Then what is the probability of getting all
letters into wrong envelopes?(answer should be correct up to three decimal places, error range: 0.005)

ANSWER : 0.375
ERROR RANGE: 0.005
ANS: Let Ai denotes the match at ith envelop. Then the required probability is
1 P ([4i=1 Ai ) = 1 1/1! + 1/2! 1/3! + 1/4! = 3/8 = 0.375

A Q65. Let f (x) = cx2 for 0 < x < 3 and f (x) = 0 otherwise be the p.d.f. of a random variable X. Then find
the value of V ar(X). (answer should be correct up to three decimal places, error range: 0.005)

ANSWER : 0.3375
ERROR RANGE: 0.005
ANS: c = 1/9. (33 )/5 (34 )/42 = 0.3375

A Q71. Let Xu2 + Y u + Z = 0 be a an equation in u with random coefficients X, Y, Z which are independently
and identically distributed random variables taking the face value of a die with equal probability for

2
 each side. Find the the probability that the equation will have no common roots. (answer should be
correct up to three decimal places, error range: 0.005)

ANSWER : 0.9768519
ERROR RANGE: 0.005

ANS: Non-favourable cases $(Y,X,Z)=\{(2,1,1), (4,4,1), (4,1,4),(4,2,2),(6,3,3)\} $

and count of all possible cases is $6^3$. Hence, the probability is $(1-5/6^3)= 0.9768519$

A Q73. Let the probability density function of X is given by

8
>
<ax + bx2 if 0 < x < 1
f (x) =
>
:0 otherwise

If E(X) = 1/9, find 6a 5b. (answer should be correct up to three decimal places, error range: 0.005)

ANSWER : 192
ERROR RANGE: 0.005

ANS: Solve for a/2+b/3=1 and a/3+b/4=1/9 to get a=46/3 and b=-20. Hence 6a-5b=192

3
 Prob-Stat(MA20205)/CT/1

Fill in the blanks (Numerical)

Date of Exam : 04th Sep, 2022
Time : SLOT B
Duration : 40min
No of questions: 5 out of 10 questions
Type: Random-sequential (navigation allowed)
Each question carries 2 marks

September 2, 2022

B Q44. Suppose A and B are two independent events and P denotes the probability function. If P (A) = 0.6
and P (B) = 0.5, then what is P (B|Ac )? (Here Ac is the complement of the event A and P (B|Ac )
is the conditional probability of B given Ac ). (Answer should be correct up to three decimal places.
Error range 0.005)

ANSWER: .5
ERROR RANGE: .005
A and B are indepemdent means Ac and B are independent. Then

P (B \ Ac )
P (B|Ac ) = = P (B) = .5
P (Ac )

B Q68. Let the number of customers arriving at a grocery store in an hour be a random variable X with p.m.f.
8
>
< e 10 10x
x! if x = 0, 1, 2, . . .
f (x) =
>
:0 otherwise

Find the value of E(X 2 X). (answer should be correct up to three decimal places, error range: 0.005)

ANS: 100
ERROR RANGE: 0.005
2
ANSWER: E(X(X 1)) =

1
B Q72. Suppose a random number N is chosen between 1, 2, . . . 20 with P (N = n) = C 0.2(0.8)n for n =
1, 2, . . . 20. If it is given that the chosen number is divisible by 4, compute the probability that the
number is either divisible by 3 or divisible by 5 too. (answer should be correct up to three decimal
places, error range: 0.005)

ANSWER : 0.1170201
ERROR RANGE: 0.005

ANS:(0.2*0.8^12+0.2*0.8^20)/(0.2*0.8^4+0.2*0.8^8+0.2*0.8^12+0.2*0.8^16+0.2*0.8^20)=0.1170201

B Q74. Consider a random variable X with c.d.f. F (x), where

8
>
<1 e x xe x if 0 < x < 1,
F (x) =
>
:0 otherwise

If M = E(X), find the value of F (M ). (answer should be correct up to three decimal places, error
range: 0.005)

ANSWER : 0.5939942
ERROR RANGE: 0.005

ANS: Note that M=2 , Hence F(M)=1-3*exp(-2)= 0.5939942

B Q75. Let the lifetime of an electric bulb is denoted by a random variable X with p.d.f. f (x). If the mean of
the lifetime is M1 and P (X  M2 ) = 0.5, find M1 M2 , where

8
>
<1e x/4
4 if 0 < x < 1,
f (x) =
>
:0 otherwise

(answer should be correct up to three decimal places, error range: 0.005)

ANSWER : 1.227411
ERROR RANGE: 0.005

ANS: Note that M_1=4 and M_2= 4 log(2). Hence 4-4*log(2)=1.227411

2
B Q76. Let A5⇥5 = ((aij )) be a random matrix. Each aij independently takes value 1 or 0 with equal prob-
ability 0.5. What is the probability that both the row-sum of the second row and column-sum of the
third column of A5⇥5 are 2 ?(answer should be correct up to three decimal places, error range: 0.005)

ANSWER: 0.1015625
ERROR RANGE: 0.005

ANS: Given a_{23}=0 then prob is ( 4 choose 2)*(1/2)^4 for the rest row or column
Given a_{23}=1 then prob is ( 4 choose 1)*(1/2)^4 for the rest row and column
dbinom(2,4,0.5)^2*0.5+dbinom(1,4,0.5)^2*0.5=0.1015625

B Q78. Let X be the face value of a fair die when rolled first time. If X = k where k 2 {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} the
the die rolled k times more independently. Find the probability that the first roll will have face value
greater than or equal to the face values observed in all subsequent roll(s).
(answer should be correct up to three decimal places, error range: 0.005)

ANSWER : 0.3336977
ERROR RANGE: ⌥0.005
ANS: 1/6 ⇤ (1/6 + (2/6)2 + (3/6)3 + (4/6)4 + (5/6)5 + 1) = 0.3336977

2|x|
B: Q79. Consider a continuous random variable X with the probability density function f (x) = ae ,
1 < x < 1, where a is a positive constant. Find the variance of X.

(answer should be correct up to three decimal places, error range: 0.005)

Answer: 0.5
ERROR RANGE: 0.005

3
 Prob-Stat/Question

SLOT C

CT1

CQ31. Let Z is the set of integers. For what value of k ∈ R

k
f (x) = for x ∈ Z \ {0}
|x|2
will be a probability mass function?
(Answer should be correct up to three decimal places, error range: 0.005)

ANSWER : 0.3040
ERROR RANGE: 0.005
ANS:
∞
! 1 π2
= 2×
|x|2 6
=0
x=−∞,x̸
3
⇒k =
π2

CQ32. The probability of choosing an odd prime number is three times the probability of choosing an even
prime number. Let five prime numbers P1 , P2 , P3 , P4 , P5 are chosen independently. What is the prob-
ability that the number N = P1 × P2 × P3 × P4 × P5 is odd?
(Answer should be correct up to three decimal places, error range: 0.005)

ANSWER : 0.2373
ERROR RANGE: 0.005
ANS: Let q be the probability of choosing an even prime, then the probability of choosing
" #5
1 3
an odd prime is 3q. Hence q = 4 . Therefore the required probability is = 0.2373
4

1
CQ33. Let f : R → R be a function defined as follows. For i = 0, 2, 4, 6, 8,
⎧
⎨ k(x − i) for i ! x ! i + 1,
f (x) =
⎩ k(i + 2 − x) for i + 1 ! x ! i + 2.

Determine the value of k for which the function f (x) is a probability density function.
(Answer should be correct up to three decimal places, error range: 0.005)

ANSWER : 0.2
ERROR RANGE: 0.005
ANS: Note that for i = 0 the graph of f (x) is a triangle with vertices (0, 0), (2, 0) and
(1, k). The area of this triangle is k. Up to i = 8, there are five such triangles placed
one after the other. The total area is 5k. In order that f (x) is the pdf, we require
5k = 1 implying k = 0.2

CQ21. Let the probability of finishing the examination in less than p hours is p/2 in an one-hour long exami-
nation, where 0 ≤ p ≤ 1. Suppose a student is appearing the exam and continues still after 0.75 hours.
Then find the probability that the student will use the full hour to finish the exam.
(answer should be correct up to three decimal places, error range: 0.005)

ANSWER : 0.8
ERROR RANGE: 0.005
ANS: Let Ap denote the event that the student finishes the exam in less than p hours,
0 ≤ p ≤ 1, and B be the event that the student uses full one hour for the exam. Then

P (B) = P (Ac1 ) = 1 − P (A1 ) = 0.5.

The desired probability is then

B ∩ Ac.75 P (B .5
P (B|Ac.75 ) = = = = 0.8
P (Ac.75 ) 1 − P (A.75 ) .625

2
CQ23. Let X and Y be two independent events of a random experiment such that P (X) = 2P (Y ) and
P (X ∩ Y ) = 0.15. Then what is the value of P (X c ∩ Y c ).

(Answer should be correct up to three decimal places, error range: 0.005)

ANSWER : 0.33
ERROR RANGE: 0.005
ANS: Since X and Y are independent, 0.15 = P (X ∩ Y ) = P (X)P (Y ) = 2P (Y )2 , so P (Y ) =
√
0.075 = 0.273, and P (X) = 2P (Y ) = 0.546 Hence

P (X c ∩ Y c ) = P (X c )P (Y c ) = (1 − 0.546)(1 − 0.273) = 0.454 × 0.727 = 0.33

CQ25. Let a diagnostic test has probability 0.5 for giving correct test result. Let the probability of getting
the disease is 0.005 in a population. Then determine the probability that a person with positive test
result has the disease.

(Answer should be correct up to three decimal places, error range: 0.005)

ANSWER : 0.0545
ERROR RANGE: 0.005
ANS: let D be the event such that the person has the disease, and R denotes the event
positive test. Then note that

P (R|D) = 0.95, P (D) = .005

Then the required probability is

P (R|D)P (D)
P (D|R) = .
P (R)

Note that P (R) = P (R ∩ D) + P (R ∩ D′ ) = P (R|D)P (D) + P (R|Dc )P (Dc ) = (0.95 × 0.005) + (0.05 ×
19
0.995) = 218 = 0.087 Then the required probability is
.95 × .005
P (D|R) = = 0.0545
.087

3
CQ52. Rakesh can solve 90 percent of the problems given in the book and Rohit can solve 75 percent. Then
calculate the probability that atleast one of them will solve a problem selected at random from the
book.

(Answer should be correct up to three decimal places, error range: 0.005)

ANSWER : 0.975
ERROR RANGE: 0.005

Solution: Let A be the event that Rakesh can solve a problem and B the event that Rohit can solve
a problem. Then we need to find probability of A ∪ B. So P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B). Since
A and B are independent, P (A ∩ B) = P (A)P (B). Note that P (A) = 0.9 and P (B) = 0.75. Therefore
P (A ∪ B) = 0.975

CQ54. Consider the word SUCCESS. Let A be the event that the word is rearranged so that the three S’s
come consecutively. Then what is the probability of the event A?

(Answer should be correct up to three decimal places, error range: 0.005)

ANSWER : 1/7 = 0.14286

ERROR RANGE: 0.005

7!
Solution: The word can be rearranged in 3!2! = 420 ways. The three S can come together in 5
4! 60
possible ways. Each case can be arranged in 2! = 12 ways. So P (A) = 5 ∗ 12/420 = 420 = 0.1429

4
 Prob-Stat/Question

SLOT D

CT1

DQ22. Suppose 50% of the emails that we receive in Gmail are spam emails. Let IIT Kgp have discovered
a software which can detect 99% of the spam emails, however the probability that a non-spam email
is detected as a spam email by the software is 5%. Assume that an email is detected as spam by the
software, then calculate the probability that it is not a spam email.
(Answer should be correct up to three decimal places, error range: 0.005)

ANSWER : 0.048
ERROR RANGE: 0.005
ANS: Let A be the event that an email is detected as spam by the software, and B is the
event that an email is spam. Then P (B) = P (B c = 0.5), P (A|B) = .99, P (A|B c ) = 0.05 The
by Bayes formula the desired probability is
P (A|B c )P (B c ) 0.05 × 0.5 5
P (B c |A) = c c
= = = 0.048
P (A|B)P (B) + P (A|B )B(B ) (0.05 × 0.5) + (0.99 × 0.5) 104

DQ24. Let us assume that 3 components are needed to pick randomly (all components are equally likely)
from a collection of 100 components in order to build a machine. However, it is known that there are
some defective components in that collection. The machine works if all 3 of the components should be
non-defective. Determine the probability to build a working machine when it is known that there are
10 defective components in the collection.
(Answer should be correct up to three decimal places, error range: 0.005)

ANSWER : 0.726
ERROR RANGE: 0.005
ANS: Let Ai be the event that occur when component i is among those that are fully functional
i = 1, 2, 3. Then the probability that the machine works = P (A1 ∩A2 ∩A3 ) = P (A1 )P (A2 |A1 )P (A3 |A1 ∩
10 90 89
A2 ). Now, P (Ac1 ) = which implies P (A) = . Then P (A2 |A1 ) = , and hence P (A3 |A1 ∩
100 100 99
88
A2 ) = . Hence the desired probability is
98
90 89 88 704880
= × × = = 0.726
100 99 98 970200

1
DQ34. Let X be a random variable with the probability density function
⎧
⎨ 2 x−3 for x ! 31
9
f (x) =
⎩ 0 otherwise

Let α ! 0 be a given real number. Determine the maximum number a > 0 such that E(X α ) exists for
every real number in the interval [0, a) and further E(X α ) does not exist for any real number greater
than or equal to a. Hence compute E(X a/2 ).
(Answer should be correct up to three decimal places, error range: 0.005)

ANSWER : 0.6667
ERROR RANGE: 0.005
ANS: E(xα ) = 29 1/3 xα−3 dx.
$∞
For this improper integral to be convergent, we know that
α − 3 < 1 implying α < 2. Thus, a = 2. Further, E(X) = 0.6667

DQ51. An insurance company believes that people can be divided into two classes. Those that are accident
prone and those that are not.Their statistics show that an accident-prone person will have an accident
within a fixed one year period with probability 0.4 whereas this probability decreases to 0.2 for non-
accident-prone person.If we assume that 30 percent of the population is accident prone, then what is
the probability that a new policy holder will have an accident within a year of purchasing a policy?

(Answer should be correct up to three decimal places, error range: 0.005)

ANSWER : 0.26
ERROR RANGE: 0.005

Solution: Let A be the event that a new policy holder will have an accident within a year of purchasing
a policy.

A1 denotes the accident prone person

A2 denotes the non-accident prone person.

So P (A) = P (A|A1 )P (A1 ) + P (A|A2 )P (A2 ) = 0.4 × o.3 + 0.2 × 0.7 = 0.12 + 0.14 = 0.26

2
DQ36. Denote by X the length of congruent sides in an isosceles right angle triangle. Let X follow the fol-
lowing probability mass function.

X=x 1 2 3 4 5 6

1 1 1 1 1 1
P (X = x)
24 3 24 12 6 3

What is the expected value of the length of the hypotenuse of this right angle triangle?
(Answer should be correct up to three decimal places, error range: 0.005)

ANSWER : 5.6569
ERROR RANGE: 0.005
ANS: Here the pmf of the length (Y ) of the hypotenuse is as follows.
√ √ √ √ √ √
Y =y 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 2 6 2

1 1 1 1 1 1
P (Y = y)
24 3 24 12 6 3

Hence the required expected value is

√ 1 √ 1 √ 1 √ 1 √ 1 √ 1 √
2× +2 2× +3 2× +4 2× +5 2× +6 2× = 4 2
24 3 24 12 6 3
x
DQ55. Let X be a discrete random variable and the probability mass function of X is f (x) = 6 where
x = 1, 2, 3. Calculate the standard deviation of X.

(Answer should be correct up to three decimal places, error range: 0.005)

ANSWER : 0.745
ERROR RANGE: 0.005

1 2 3
Solution: Mean = µ = 1 ∗ 6 +2∗ 6 +3∗ 6 = 37 .
1 2 3
E(X 2 ) = 12 ∗ 6 + 22 ∗ 6 + 32 ∗ 6 =6

Variance= 6 − ( 37 )2 = 5/9.
%
Therefore the standard deviation is 5/9 = 0.745.

3
DQ56. Let c > 0 be a constant and ⎧
⎨cx(1 − x); 0 < x < 1
⎪
f (x) =
⎩0; otherwise.
⎪

Assume that the f (x) is the probability density function with respect to the random variable X.
Calculate P {X > 0.4}.

(Answer should be correct up to three decimal places, error range: 0.005)

ANSWER: 0.648
ERROR RANGE: 0.005

$1
Solution: 0 cx(1 − x)dx = c/6. Since f (x) is a pdf, we have c/6 = 1 ⇒ c = 6. P (X > 0.4) =
$ 0.4
1 − P (X ≤ 0.4) = 1 − 6[ 0 x(1 − x)dx] = 81/125 = 0.648

DQ57. Let X be a continuous random variable with the probability density function
⎧
⎨e(−1−x) ; − 1 < x < ∞
⎪
f (x) =
⎩0; otherwise.
⎪

Calculate P {X ≥ 1}.

(Answer should be correct up to three decimal places, error range: 0.005)

ANSWER: 0.135
ERROR RANGE: 0.005

$∞
Solution: P (X ≥ 1) = 1
e−x−1 dx = e−2 = 0.135.