Owen Presidential Election Game
Owen Presidential Election Game
Owen Presidential Election Game
GUILLERMO OWEN
Rice University
frequently had to the multilinear extension (MLE) Electoral College after the 1950 and 1960 census
of the game. Essentially, the MLE of game (N; v) reapportionments.
is the function f(xi, • • • , xn) denned by As against this exact method, we may approxi-
mate the Shapley value by the method of MLE's.
J(XU • • • , Xn) In fact, the partial derivative f&cu • • • , xn) can
be expressed as
2-2 = E 11^11(1 - *MS).
scN >es as
3.2 /,(*i, • • • , « . ) = E[v(SV {i}) - v(S)},
It is shown in an earlier paper by the author4 that,
if / i s the MLE of v, then where 5 is a random coalition, such that player
j(jf*i) has probability Xj of belonging to S, and
2.3 di[v] = f fi(t, / , - • - , that these probabilities are independent. (Here, S
J
o is assumed not to contain Q Now, in 3.2, each of
the terms v(SKJ {«}) and e(S) equals either 0 or 1,
where ft is the i-th partial derivative i and P(5)<I>C?VJ{2"}), so that the variable
The advantage of using the MLE is that it can D ( J U { I ' } ) - P ( S ) can have only the two values 0
be given a probabilistic interpretation. Thus, or 1. Its expectation, then, is the probability that
f(xi, • • • , xn) is the mathematical expectation it equal 1, and this happens only if D(5) = 0 but
o(S(J{i})=l. By (3.1), this happens if
E[v(S)],
j < 269
where S is a random coalition, determined
probabilistically by saying that there is prob- and
ability Xi that player i will belong to 5, and that
the probabilities of different players belonging 270.
are independent. This interpretation will allow us
to give approximations based on the central limit
theorem. Thus,
fi(Xi, • • • , Xn)
3. The State Game
If we disregard the process by which the elec- 3.3
tors are themselves chosen, we can think of the = Prob J27O - Wi < £ u>j < 269>
electoral college as itself representing a game.
By assumption l(b) above, all the electors from a Let, now, y=X)s w i- Then Y is a random vari-
given state will vote for the same candidate, and able, equal to the sum of 50 variables Zj, where
so each state can be thought of as a single player.
We have, then, here, a weighted majority game
(M; c), where M is the set of all states (plus the
District of Columbia), and, for any T<ZM, \wj
The righthand side of (3.7) can now be evalu- where 5 is the number of players in 5.
ated (for given values of t) by means of a table of It is, of course trivial—by symmetry—to com-
the normal distribution; it is then necessary to pute the Shapley value for each of the games «,-.
integrate this (numerically), to obtain the power Unfortunately, composition of games does not
of state i. generally give rise to a composition of values, and
In Table 1, values are given both by the exact so it is not possible to obtain exact values for the
method and by the MLE approximation, for the composed game.
1970 apportionment. The approximation, while Turning to the MLE's, we find, however, that
not exact, is really not bad. (Maximum error 0.367 MLE's do compose when the games compose.
per cent.) Thus, if the game v has MLE /, while the games
« ] , • • • , M61 have MLE's g,, • • • , g a respec-
4. The Composed Game tively, then the compound game v[u\, • • • , uw]
We proceed now to the presidential election has the MLE h, where
Table 1
Value
Electoral Total Per Inh. Banzhaf
Population Votes Value *i/m, Ratio Ratio
m< (X10-9) U./Pd.c. P>
1960
Alabama 3,266,740 10 .013971 4.2767 1.615 1.632
Alaska 226,167 3 .0011068 4.8937 1.845 1.838
Arizona 1,302,161 5 .0044025 3.3809 1.275 1.281
Arkansas 1,786,272 6 .0062101 3.4766 1.313 1.315
California 15,717,204 40 .130848 8.3251 3.143 3.162
Colorado 1,753,947 6 .0061309 3.4955 1.321 1.327
Connecticut 2,535,234 8 .0098302 3.8774 1.464 1.477
Delaware 446,292 3 .0015535 3.4809 1.313 1.308
Dist. of Columbia 763,956 3 .0020251 2.6508 1.000 1.000
Florida 4,951,560 14 .024200 4.8873 1.845 1.870
Georgia 3,943,116 12 .018404 4.6674 1.762 1.789
Hawaii 632,772 4 .0024692 3.9022 .472 1.468
Idaho 667,191 4 .0025366 3.8019 .434 1.429
Illinois 10,081,158 26 .065190 6.4665 2.430 2.491
Indiana 4,662,498 13 .021761 4.6672 .762 1.786
Iowa 2,757,537 9 .011564 4.1936 1.581 1.596
Kansas 2,178,611 7 .0079966 3.6705 .385 .392
Kentucky 3,038,156 9 .012143 3.9968 .509 .521
Louisiana 3,257,022 10 .013967 4.2882 .619 .635
Maine 969,265 4 .0030605 3.1575 .192 .186
Maryland 3,100,689 10 .013609 4.3890 1.657 .675
Massachusetts 5,148,578 14 .024652 4.7881 1.808 .834
Michigan 7,823,194 21 .046039 5.8849 2.223 2.262
Minnesota 3,413,864 10 .014300 4.1888 1.581 1.597
Mississippi 2,178,141 7 .0079966 3.6712 1.385 1.392
Missouri 4,319,813 12 .019273 4.4615 1.683 1.710
Montana 674,767 4 .0025455 3.7724 1.423 1.421
Nebraska 1,411,330 5 .0045350 3.2133 1.211 1.231
Nevada 285,278 3 .0012467 4.3701 1.649 1.636
New Hampshire 606,921 4 .0024238 3.9936 1.506 1.499
New Jersey 6,066,782 17 .032595 5.3727 2.026 2.063
New Mexico 951,023 4 .0030342 3.1905 1.204 1.197
New York 16,782,304 43 .146181 8.7104 3.287 3.312
North Carolina 4,556,155 13 .021538 4.7272 1.781 1.807
North Dakota 632,446 4 .0024692 3.9024 1.472 1.468
Ohio 9,706,397 26 .064013 6.5949 2.487 2.539
Oklahoma 2,328,284 8 .0094188 4.0454 1.528 1.541
Oregon 1,768,687 6 .0061779 3.4929 1.317 1.321
Pennsylvania 11,319,366 29 .078088 6.8986 2.604 2.638
Rhode Island 859,488 4 .0028828 3.3541 1.264 1.259
South Carolina 2,382,594 8 .0095422 4.0050 1.509 1.524
South Dakota 680,514 4 .0025588 3.7601 1.419 1.415
Tennessee 3,567,089 11 .016093 4.5115 1.702 1.721
Texas 9,579,677 25 .061003 6.3680 2.404 2.452
Utah 890,627 4 .0029358 3.2963 1.245 1.237
Vermont 389,881 3 .0014597 3.7440 1.415 1.400
Virginia 3,966,949 12 .018454 4.6519 1.755 1.784
Washington 2,853,214 9 .011754 4.1196 1.555 1.569
West Virginia 1,860,421 7 .0073532 3.9524 1.491 1.506
Wisconsin 3,951,777 12 .018415 4.6599 1.758 1.788
Wyoming 330,066 3 .0013411 4.0631 1.532 1.521
1975 Evaluation of a Presidential Election Game 951
Table 2. (Continued)
Value
Electoral Total Per Inh. Banzhaf
Population Votes Value Ratio Ratio
mi Wi
(xio-») Di/Cd.0. ft
1970
Alabama 3,444,165 9 .012003 3.4849 1.406 .421
Alaska 302,173 3 .001186 3.9253 1.584 1.582
Arizona 1,772,482 6 .005740 3.2385 1.307 .314
Arkansas 1,923,295 6 .005977 3.1079 1.254 1.261
California 19,953,134 45 .156584 7.8476 3.166 5.177
Colorado 2,207,259 7 .007474 3.3861 1.366 .376
Connecticut 3,032,217 9 .011271 3.7171 1.500 .515
Delaware 548,104 3 .001597 2.9131 1.175 .175
Dist. of Columbia 756,510 3 .001875 2.4783 1.000 1.000
Florida 6,789,443 17 .032070 4.7326 1.906 .941
Georgia 4,589,575 12 .018515 4.0341 1.628 .651
Hawaii 769,913 4 .002521 3.2804 1.324 .325
Idaho 713,008 4 .002428 3.4073 1.375 .376
Illinois 11,113,976 26 .063718 5.7332 2.313 '.361
Indiana 5,193,669 13 .021349 4.1106 1.659 .684
Iowa 2,825,041 8 .009662 3.4202 1.380 .392
Kansas 2,249,071 7 .007544 3.3542 1.353 .363
Kentucky 3,219,311 9 .011609 3.6062 1.455 .470
Louisiana 3,643,180 10 .013730 3.7686 1.521 .538
Maine 993,663 4 .002863 2.8860 1.164 .166
Maryland 3,922,399 10 .014238 3.6300 1.464 1.482
Massachusetts 5,689,170 14 .024084 4.2333 1.708 1.736
Michigan 8,875,083 21 .045549 5.1322 2.071 2.113
Minnesota 3,805,069 10 .014027 3.6864 1.487 1.505
Mississippi 2,216,912 7 .007490 3.3787 1.363 1.373
Missouri 4,677,399 12 .018688 3.9954 1.612 1.635
Montana 694,409 4 .002397 3.4516 1.393 1.394
Nebraska 1,483,791 5 .004375 2.9488 1.190 1.194
Nevada 488,738 3 .001508 3.0854 1.245 1.244
New Hampshire 737,681 4 .002470 3.3486 1.351 1.353
New Jersey 7,168,164 17 .032935 4.5946 1.854 1.889
New Mexico 1,016,000 4 .002897 2.8516 1.151 1.153
New York 18,190,740 41 .134168 7.3756 2.976 3.004
North Carolina 5,082,059 13 .021122 4.1563 1.677 1.702
North Dakota 617,761 3 .001695 2.7435 1.107 1.107
Ohio 10,652,017 25 .059855 5.6191 2.267 2.314
Oklahoma 2,559,253 7 .008042 3.1423 1.268 1.278
Oregon 2,091,385 5 .006231 2.9793 1.202 1.209
Pennsylvania 11,793,909 27 .068299 5.7910 2.337 2.385
Rhode Island 949,723 4 .002802 2.9498 1.190 1.192
South Carolina 2,590,516 8 .009257 3.5734 1.442 1.454
South Dakota 666,257 4 .002347 3.5260 1.423 1.424
Tennessee 3,924,164 10 .014242 3.6292 1.464 1.482
Texas 11,196,730 26 .063950 5.7115 2.305 2.352
Utah 1,059,273 4 .002958 2.7924 1.127 1.129
Vermont 444,732 3 .001438 3.2362 1.306 1.305
Virginia 4,648,494 12 .018631 4.0080 1.617 1.640
Washington 3,409,169 9 .011942 3.5030 1.413 1.428
West Virginia 1,744,237 6 .005695 3.2648 1.317 1.324
Wisconsin 4,417,933 11 .016631 3.7645 1.519 1.539
Wyoming 332,416 3 .001244 3.7423 1.510 1.509
952 The American Political Science Review Vol. 69