May 2024 Paper 2 (TZ 1) 3
May 2024 Paper 2 (TZ 1) 3
May 2024 Paper 2 (TZ 1) 3
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Economics
Higher level and standard level
Paper 2
15 May 2024
1 hour 45 minutes
Instructions to candidates
y Do not open this paper until instructed to do so.
y You are permitted access to a calculator for this paper.
y Unless otherwise stated in the question, all numerical answers must be given exactly or correct
to two decimal places.
y You must show all your working.
y Answer one question.
y Use fully labelled diagrams and references to the text/data where appropriate.
y The maximum mark for this examination paper is [40 marks].
2224 – 5104
9 pages © International Baccalaureate Organization 2024
–2– 2224 – 5104
*
1. Read the extracts and answer the questions that follow.
1 The United Kingdom (UK) is a country in Europe. By early 2022, its economy had recovered
from a deep recession. However, there were significant risks ahead. Inflation was rising and, as
demand management policies to reduce inflation took effect, the growth rate of gross domestic
product (GDP) began to slow again.
2 Inflationary pressures were due to rising energy prices, shortages of labour and high
government spending. The central bank raised interest rates several times during 2021 and
2022 because inflation rose above the target rate of 2 %. At the same time, the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) recommended that government spending on infrastructure, skills and
innovation should be increased.
3 Since 2020, the deficit on the current account of the balance of payments has increased. Higher
expenditure on imports of manufactured goods, oils and other fuels added to the deficit on the
balance of trade in goods.
4 Fluctuations in the exchange rate for the pound (UK£, the UK’s currency) are considerable
(Figure 1). The overall trend since 2014 has been for export prices (measured in foreign
currencies) to decrease. However, the UK export market share in world trade has been
gradually declining.
5 Currency depreciation is expected to increase inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) and
portfolio investment. However, the effect on the trade balance is less predictable, partly
because imported raw materials and components are a large proportion of the cost of exported
goods. The demand for UK exports of services, including banking, insurance, and business
services, is price inelastic. Other factors such as quality and reputation are usually more
important than price in determining demand.
6 In addition, UK manufacturing exports are mainly high technology goods, which are less
sensitive to price changes than to other demand factors. For example, the long-run price
elasticity of demand (PED) for pharmaceuticals exported from the UK has been estimated to be
0.6, whereas for machinery it is 1.1. In the short run, the PED is lower for all exported goods,
averaging 0.15.
7 Changes in the incomes of people overseas are usually more significant in determining export
demand than changes in prices. The income elasticity of demand (YED) for most UK exports
is positive and can be quite high. For example, the YED is 2.6 for exports of pharmaceuticals.
However, the YED is only 0.07 for exports of shoes.
1 The UK exited the European Union (EU) in 2020. Since then, free trade agreements (FTAs)
have been negotiated with Australia and New Zealand. These FTAs will result in the gradual
elimination of almost all tariffs. Therefore, some export sectors in the UK economy are predicted
to grow, particularly in the areas of “green” technologies and digital services.
(Question 1 continued)
2 However, it is estimated that the effect of these agreements will increase UK GDP by
only 0.11 % per year. While the overall benefit will be small, the negative effect on some
industries will be significant. UK farmers are concerned that these FTAs could damage their
competitiveness and cause UK agricultural output to fall.
The UK plans to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. By 2035, emissions of carbon should be
reduced to 22 % of the 1990 levels. The net zero strategy includes measures to encourage firms
to invest in the development, production and use of low-carbon goods. For example, subsidies
are provided for the production of solar panels because when they are used to generate
electricity, there is less need for fossil fuels. Consequently, the output of fossil fuels moves
closer to the social optimum. Innovative “green” goods that benefit the environment can also
be exported.
2011 2021
2011 2021
Income 6 12
FDI 34 58
Reserve assets 5 18
Turn over
–4– 2224 – 5104
Blank page
–5– 2224 – 5104
(Question 1 continued)
Figure 1: Exchange rate from 2011 to 2022 (US$ per UK£)
1.70
1.60
1.50
US$ per UK£
1.40
1.30
1.20
1.10
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Year
(a) (i) Define the term recession indicated in bold in the text (Text A, paragraph 1). [2]
(ii) Define the term portfolio investment indicated in bold in the text (Text A,
paragraph 5). [2]
(b) A pharmaceutical good is priced at UK£5 per unit and the exported quantity is
1000 units. The price decreases to UK£4.
(i) Using the price elasticity of demand figure for pharmaceuticals exported from
the UK (Text A, paragraph 6), calculate the revenue earned in UK£ after the
price change. [3]
(ii) Using information from Table 2, calculate the balance of trade in goods
(UK£ billion) for the UK in 2021. [2]
(c) Using an AD/AS diagram, explain the likely effect on the UK’s real GDP of higher
interest rates (Text A, paragraph 2). decrease in AD [4]
(d) Using an exchange rate diagram, explain the likely effect on the exchange rate for the
pound (UK£) of increased international demand for “green” goods produced in the UK
(Text C). increase in demand of currency [4]
(e) Using an international trade diagram, explain how imports of agricultural goods to the
UK are likely to change as a result of the free trade agreements with Australia and New
Zealand (Text B, paragraph 2). decrease in turigy [4]
(f) Using an externalities diagram, explain why the output of fossil fuels moves closer
to the social optimum when subsidies are provided for the production of solar panels
(Text C). negative consumption externality [4]
(g) Using information from the text/data and your knowledge of economics, discuss the
likely effects of the exchange rate trend from 2011 to 2022 (shown in Figure 1) on the
UK balance of payments and the UK economy. [15]
Turn over
28/10/24
1. Recession refers to a negative gdp growth and the period occurs when the economy is in a decline for 2
consecutive quarters of a year which is usually for 6 months.
2. Portfolio investment is the purchase of financial assets like stocks and bonds in another country, aiming
for returns without control over the asset, typically short-term and more liquid than direct investment
3. Revenue = 5*1000 = 5000 pounds, 4*1000 = 4000 pounds. Difference = -1000 pounds
4. Balance of trade in goods = - 60 = x + 127 - 19 - 12, x = -156
YM
54 Average
Price
As
level
(S)
PL
- PLz
AD ,
ADL
7
O
Real GDP
Y Y
Yn
67
S
exchange
rate
n22
21
Dr
P
,
O 7
X
&I O2
>
Quantity of currency
y n
7) So
Price
Prott Sw + t
Pur Su
W
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O
as
As
, Odi
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-
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Yn
87 S= Mpc= mS(
&
.
Price
Negative consumption externality
Pm
Popt
L
D = mpB
MSB
X
O dopt 02 Om Quantity
Exchange rate refers to the value of a currency being expressed in terms of another currency. The
al exchange rate in the UK is becoming weaker from 2011 to 2022 as seen in figure 1. In 2011 the exchange
rate was 1.6$ per pound decreasing to approximately a little less than 1.3$ per pound which is showing
the depreciation of the UK pound over these 11 years. Balance of payments is a record of financial
transactions of the residents of a country with the rest of the world, it records the inflows and outflows of
a country which are through the current account, capital account and the financial account.
The current account of the balance of payments in the UK since 2020 have increased due to the higher
expenditure on imports of manufactured goods, oils and other fuels which significantly raised this deficit,
thus affecting the deficit of the balance of trade in goods (paragraph 3). Imports prices have risen since
they are inelastic in nature and the UK is unable to cut out their import expenditure which therefore
worsens their deficit. This is also further worsened because the export prices and their export market
share have been gradually decreasing in the UK since 2014 because the demand for UK’s exports of
services, banking, insurance and business services is price inelastic and it hasn’t led to further buying
from foreigners even though their prices have decreased (paragraph 4) (paragraph 5). Moreover, the
financial account is also affected by the currency depreciation over the period because the net foreign
direct investment as seen in table 2 from 34 to 58 and the portfolio investment would be expected to
increase from -10 to -25 (paragraph 5). As foreigners would find British assets cheaper to purchase, there
would be higher investments coming into the country thus supporting the deficit. Thus this does not meet
the Marshall Lerner condition because the joint PED’s are not elastic, this is seen in the J-curve below.
Y N
current
account
-
Het S
The J-curve above shows the UK being in the deficit which is when the PED of exports and the PED of
imports is greater than 0 and less than 1 and the deficit has not improved and the Marshall Lerner
condition is not meant.
The other impact of the economy of the UK in general which is meeting the objectives of economic
growth, keeping inflation steady, unemployment and equity. There would be an increase in the
economic growth because the demand for UK’s exports of services, banking, insurance and other
services has lower prices and their manufacturing exports are manly high technology goods which are
less sensitive to price and changes to prices which is therefore price inelastic with an average PED of
-0.15 (paragraph 5) (paragraph 6). This will increase the aggregate demand as well because the export
is rising which is increasing the net exports thus shifting AD to the right. This would also increase UK’s
GDP since there is growth in the economy due to the cheaper prices which attracts investment and
consumption and higher net exports.
Furthermore, inflation would increase due to the rising energy prices, shortages of labour and the high
government spending which also adds to inflationary pressures on consumers and firms (paragraph 2).
The central bank by using demand management polices like contractionary monetary policy to raise
interest rates multiple times between 2021 and 2022 because inflation rose above their target rate of
2% and subsequently the International Monetary Fund suggested that government spending on
infrastructure, skills and innovation should be increased (paragraph 2). Depreciation is contributing to
the cost push inflation which is mentioned in paragraph 2 as high energy prices. The diagram below
shows the cost push inflation diagram arising from the high prices of energy in the UK.
ya SRAS 2
Average
Price
evel PLz SRAS I
M
PLI
AB
7
O X Real GDP
Y2 YI
j
The unemployment is also affected in the UK because there are availability of jobs but there are no
people who are willing and able to work in the labour force since there are labour shortages as seen in
paragraph 2. The export industry is also not performing so therefore there may be job losses, the
imported raw materials which are part of the industry are raising cost of production and may not be able
to compete from foreign firms potentially shutting down due to higher imported raw material costs. Lastly,
the equity in the UK would also worsen due to the high levels of inflation and unstable income levels
which would affect their distribution of income. This is also because the basic necessities like fuel which
is essential for heating purposes is on the rise therefore decreasing their purchasing power. In conclusion,
the deprecation of the UK pound has not led to the expected benefits on their balance of payements or
their economy affecting their current and financial account with higher unemployment, higher inflation,
worsened equity in the country and low rates of economic growth or economic slowdown.
–6– 2224 – 5104
~
2. Read the extracts and answer the questions that follow.
1 The Philippines is a country in the Asia–Pacific region. Growth rates of gross domestic product
(GDP) in the 2020s are expected to average 5 % per year. With increasing urbanization, a
growing middle class and a large, young population, the Philippines’ economic growth is based
on strong consumer demand.
2 Although the primary sector is still important, there is stronger growth in the services sector,
including tourism and insurance. Remittances from overseas workers also contribute a lot to
national income.
3 The government has made progress in reducing poverty, partly due to policies that encourage
workers to leave agriculture for higher wage jobs in other sectors. However, poverty reduction
is proceeding slowly, with more than 70 % of the labour force still working in low-wage jobs in
the informal economy. The Philippines is vulnerable to natural disasters, such as earthquakes
and droughts, which damage the economy and most severely affect the poor who work in
farming and fishing. Fish stocks are falling due to illegal fishing and climate change. Agricultural
productivity is low and unsustainable practices have caused deforestation.
4 Infrastructure and public services, including health care and education, are inadequate in many
rural areas and there is poor nutrition in low-income households. Rising food and fuel prices
will further reduce real incomes. For the lowest income earners, food amounts to 60 % of total
expenditure, while the highest income earners spend only 28 % on food. This can be explained
by the low-income elasticity of demand (YED) for food.
5 An expansionary fiscal policy has caused a persistent budget deficit. Higher global energy
prices and the depreciation of the peso (₱HP, the Philippine currency) have added to inflationary
pressures. In response, the central bank raised its interest rate several times, from 2 % in 2021
to 5.5 % in 2022.
6 The Philippines has experienced more free trade in agricultural goods following its membership
of the ASEAN economic community (a free trade area). For example, a quota on pork imports
into the Philippines has been removed.
7 However, to help local farmers, a 35 % tariff has been placed on rice imported into the
Philippines, even though rice and other cereals account for a large proportion of imports. Tariff
revenues are used to provide subsidies for modern farm equipment, seeds and training for rice
farmers. The aim is to create a more efficient and competitive agricultural sector.
1 In order to achieve the first Sustainable Development Goal (SDG), the government of the
Philippines aims to eliminate extreme poverty by 2040. In 2019, taxes were increased on
tobacco, alcohol and e-cigarettes, partly to fund an expansion of the public health care system.
(Question 2 continued)
2 Another programme provides regular cash payments to mothers, conditional on their children
regularly attending school and receiving preventive health check-ups. Therefore, it is reducing
poverty, improving human capital and increasing gender equality. According to a World Bank
study, the Philippines’ programme is one of the most efficient social support systems in the
world: it costs only 0.4 % of GDP, yet covers nearly 20 million people.
3 The government gives fuel subsidies to private bus drivers who provide transport in rural areas.
In addition, the bus drivers are asking for an increase in the legal minimum price that they
charge passengers, although the minimum (floor) price is already above the equilibrium price.
2012 2021
Real gross national income (GNI) per capita (₱HP) 141 000 168 000
2012 2021
Turn over
–8– 2224 – 5104
(Question 2 continued)
₱HP billion
Consumption 14 600
Investment 3780
GDP 19 700
GNI 20 500
* estimate
1 600
1 400
1 200
US$ million
1 000
800
600
400
200
0
2017 2018 2019 2020
Year
(Question 2 continued)
(a) (i) Define the term remittances indicated in bold in the text (Text D, paragraph 2). [2]
(ii) Define the term expansionary fiscal policy indicated in bold in the text (Text D,
paragraph 5). [2]
(b) (i) Using information from Table 5, calculate the value of imports of goods and
services (₱HP billion) into the Philippines in 2022. [2]
(ii) Using information from Table 5, calculate the value of net income from abroad
(₱HP billion) in the Philippines in 2022. [1]
A middle-income household in the Philippines earned ₱HP 4000 weekly in 2021. Its
weekly income increased to ₱HP 4200 in 2022. Its weekly demand for rice decreased
from 4 kilograms (kg) to 3.9 kg between 2021 and 2022.
(iii) Calculate the income elasticity of demand for rice for this household. [2]
(c) Using an AD/AS diagram, explain the likely effect on the Philippines’ real GDP as a
result of higher global energy prices (Text D, paragraph 5). increase in SRASCAS) [4]
(d) Using an international trade diagram, explain how the government of the Philippines
gains revenue by imposing a tariff on rice imports (Text D, paragraph 7). increase in [4]
twinf
(e) Using a demand and supply diagram, explain what is likely to happen to the consumer
surplus if the minimum (floor) price charged by private bus drivers is raised further
above the equilibrium price (Text E, paragraph 3). increase in price floor [4]
(f) Using a poverty cycle diagram, explain the likely effect of official development
assistance (ODA) on incomes in the Philippines (Figure 2 and Text F). [4]
low investment
(g) Using information from the text/data and your knowledge of economics, evaluate the
policies used in the Philippines to reduce poverty and income inequality. [15]
1. Remittances is the funds that are sent back to their home country by relatives who are working
abroad, these are sent to their families to support them with their needs and required essentials.
2. Expansionary fiscal policy refers to the increase in government spending on public goods such as
healthcare and education while subsequently reducing taxes in order to promote economic growth
and increase aggregate demand.
3. Value of imported goods and services = C + I + G (X-M) = GDP, 14600 + 3780 + 3700 + (5400 - M) =
19700, x = 7780
4. Net income from abroad = GNI - GDP, 20500 - 19700 = 800
5. income elasticity of demand = demand - 3.9 - 4 / 4 *100 = -2.5, income - 4200 - 4000 / 4000 * 100 =
5, -2.5 / 5 = -0.5
6.
YN SRAS2
Average
SRAS ,
Price
level
nPLZ
PL
AD
> X
O Yz YI
J Real GDP
74 PriceYn So
Prott
Pu
O
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>
Government
Sw + t
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Da
Tantity
revenue
2
32
.
7
90 S]
.
y
8)
Price a
S
Price floor
2
Price floor
1
Pe
% a as
D
an Quantity
al Poverty cycle
S low income
low investments T
ODA
[15]
Disclaimer:
Content used in IB assessments is taken from authentic, third-party sources. The views expressed within them belong to their
individual authors and/or publishers and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IB.
References:
Text A International Monetary Fund, 2022. IMF Country Report No.22/56. [pdf online] Washington: International
Monetary Fund. Available at: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2022/02/22/United-Kingdom-2021-
Article-IV-Consultation-Press-Release-Staff-Report-and-Statement-by-the-513439 [Accessed July 2022]. Source
adapted.
Office for National Statistics, 2022. Balance of Payments, UK: January to March 2022. [online] 30 June. Available
at: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/balanceofpayments/
januarytomarch2022 [Accessed July 2022]. Source adapted. Contains public sector information licensed under
the Open Government Licence v3.0.
Office for National Statistics, 2017. Economic Review. [online] 13 July. Available at: https://www.ons.gov.uk/
releases/ukeconomicreviewjuly2017 [Accessed July 2022]. Source adapted. Contains public sector information
licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
Delis, A., Ioannidis, C. and Stamatogiannis, M., 2020. Determinants and Trade Elasticities for UK Exports across
Different Sectors and Destinations. [pdf online] Birmingham: Aston Business School. Available at: https://www.
lbpresearch.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Determinants-and-Trade-Elasticities-for-UK-Exports-across-
Different-Sectors-and-Destinations-Full.pdf [Accessed July 2022]. Source adapted.
Text B Gov.UK, 2022. New Bill to enable implementation of Australia and New Zealand trade deals. [online] 11 May.
Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-bill-to-enable-implementation-of-australia-and-new-
zealand-trade-deals#:~:text=The%20UK%2DAustralia%20Agreement%20is,economy%20by%20%C2%A3800-
%20million [Accessed July 2022]. Source adapted. Contains public sector information licensed under the Open
Government Licence v3.0.
Partington, R., 2021. UK-Australia trade deal is more golden duck than golden goose. The Guardian, [online]
17 December. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/dec/17/uk-australia-trade-deal-is-more-
golden-duck-than-golden-goose [Accessed July 2022]. Source adapted. Courtesy of Guardian News & Media Ltd.
Text C Gov.UK, 2021. Net Zero Strategy: Build Back Greener. [pdf online] Available at: https://assets.publishing.service.
gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1033990/net-zero-strategy-beis.pdf [Accessed
August 2022]. Source adapted. Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence
v3.0.
Table 1 Office for National Statistics, 2023. Understanding the UK economy. [online] Available at: https://www.ons.gov.uk/
economy/nationalaccounts/articles/dashboardunderstandingtheukeconomy/2017-02-22 [Accessed August 2022].
Source adapted. Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
Table 2 Office for National Statistics, 2022. Data Set Balance of Payments. [online] 30 June. Available at:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/datasets/
balanceofpaymentsstatisticalbulletintables [Accessed August 2022]. Source adapted. Contains public sector
information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
Figure 1 World Bank Group, 2023. Official exchange rate (LCU per US$, period average) - United Kingdom. Available
at: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/PA.NUS.FCRF?locations=GB [Accessed August 2022]. Source adapted.
Public domain.
Text D Bertelsmann Stiftung, BTI 2022 Country Report — Philippines. Gütersloh: Bertelsmann Stiftung, 2022. This work
is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
World Bank. 2022. Philippines Economic Update, June 2022: Strengthening the Digital Economy to Boost
Domestic Recovery. Philippines Economic Update. © Washington, DC. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/37915
License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Philippine Statistics Authority, 2022. Revised Annual 2021 to 2022 National Accounts of the Philippines. [online]
Available at: https://psa.gov.ph/statistics/national-accounts?gl=1*1um2olc*_ga*NTkxODU3MjE1LjE3MTcwMDE0OTg.*_
gaEGEWF45N3M*MTcxNzAwMTQ5Ny4xLjEuMTcxNzAwMTU4MC41Ni4wLjA. [Accessed June 2024].
World Bank Group, 2019. Philippines – Country Partnership Framework for the Period July 2019 –
December 2023 (English). [pdf online] Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group. Available at: https://documents.
worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/891661574699296055/philippines-country-
partnership-framework-for-the-period-july-2019-december-2023 [Accessed August 2022]. Source adapted.
Text E Acosta, P.A., Posarac, A. and Velarde, R.B., 2016. Philippines – Completion report for the technical assistance :
impact evaluation of the Philippines CCT program (English). [pdf online] Washington, D.C.: World
Bank Group. Available at: https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/
documentdetail/490961479823019354/philippines-completion-report-for-the-technical-assistance-impact-
evaluation-of-the-philippines-cct-program [Accessed February 2023]. Source adapted.
Nichols, Z., 2022. Combating Poverty in the Philippines. [online] Available at: https://borgenproject.org/tag/
poverty-in-the-philippines/#:~:text=From%202015%20to%202020%2C%20the,eradicate%20extreme%20
poverty%20by%202040 [Access July 2022]. Source adapted.
Text F World Bank Group, 2019. World Bank Philippines - Country Partnership Framework for the Period July 2019 -
December 2023 (English). [pdf online] Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group. Available at: https://documents.
worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/891661574699296055/philippines-country-
partnership-framework-for-the-period-july-2019-december-2023 [Accessed August 2022]. Source adapted.
Table 3 World Bank Group, 2023. Inflation, consumer prices (annual %) – Philippines. [online] Available at:
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG?locations=PH [ Accessed February 2023]. Source adapted.
CC BY-4.0.
Table 4 World Bank Group, 2023. Inflation, consumer prices (annual %) – Philippines. [online] Available at:
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG?locations=PH [ Accessed February 2023]. Source adapted.
CC BY-4.0.
United Nations Development Programme, 2022. Philippines. [online] Available at: https://hdr.undp.org/data-center/
specific-country-data#/countries/PHL [Accessed February 2023]. Source adapted. CC BY-3.0 IGO.
Table 5 Philippine Statistics Authority, 2022. Revised Annual 2021 to 2022 National Accounts of the Philippines. [online]
Available at: https://psa.gov.ph/statistics/national-accounts?gl=1*1um2olc*_ga*NTkxODU3MjE1LjE3MTcwMDE0OTg.*_
gaEGEWF45N3M*MTcxNzAwMTQ5Ny4xLjEuMTcxNzAwMTU4MC41Ni4wLjA. [Accessed June 2024]. Source
adapted.
Figure 2 World Bank Group, 2023. Net official development assistance and official aid received (current US$) –
Philippines. [online] Available at: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/DT.ODA.ALLD.CD?locations=PH
[Accessed August 2022]. Source adapted. Public domain.