MATH 22

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS

© https://uccs.edu/dase/

MODULE 2: PROBABILITY

For educational purposes only

This module has the following sections and corresponding icons:

COVER PAGE
It shows the course code and title and
the specific topic discussed in this
module.

OVERVIEW
A general introduction of the specific topic
presented in the title, as well as the learning
outcomes and the time frame is included in this
section.

LECTURE
This section focuses on the discussion of the topic
which may include graphs, tables, and pictures to
help the student/reader in understanding the lesson.

PRACTICE PROBLEMS
It involves questions or follow-up problems about the
topic to evaluate how much you understand in this
module.
 ASSESSEMENT
To further assess your understanding, this section will
contain more challenging problems and real-life
situations in which you can apply what you have
learned throughout this module

SUPPLEMENTARY KNOWLEDGE
This section will help you in exploring the lesson by
providing tips, techniques, and other relevant information
to support your knowledge.

ANSWER KEY
This contains answers to all the problems included in
this module.

REFERENCES
This includes the list of all the reference books used
in creating this module.
 Overview
INTRODUCTION:
The term probability refers to the study of randomness and uncertainty.
In any situation in which one of a number of possible outcomes may occur, the
discipline of probability provides methods for quantifying the chances, or
likelihoods, associated with the various outcomes. The language of probability
is constantly used in an informal manner in both written and spoken contexts.
Examples include such statements as “It is likely that the Dow Jones average
will increase by the end of the year,” “There is a 50–50 chance that the
incumbent will seek reelection,” “There will probably be at least one section of
that course offered next year,” “The odds favor a quick settlement of the strike,”
and “It is expected that at least 20,000 concert tickets will be sold.” In this
chapter, we introduce some elementary probability concepts, indicate how
probabilities can be interpreted, and show how the rules of probability can be
applied to compute the probabilities of many interesting events. The
methodology of probability will then permit us to express in precise language
such informal statements as those given above.
The study of probability as a branch of mathematics goes back over 300
years, where it had its genesis in connection with questions involving games of
chance. Many books are devoted exclusively to probability, but our objective
here is to cover only that part of the subject that has the most direct bearing on
problems of statistical inference.

COURSE OUTCOMES:
At the end of this module, students will be able to:
Apply statistical methods in the analysis of data and designing experiments.

INTENDED LEARNING OUTCOMES:

At the end of this module, the students will be able to:
Apply different rules of probability in determining the probability of events

PROGRAM OUTCOMES:
Apply knowledge of mathematics and science to solve complex
mechanical engineering problems;
Design and conduct experiments, as well as to analyze and interpret data;
Identify, formulate, and solve complex mechanical engineering problems;

TIME FRAME:
• 1 week
 LECTURE 1:
SAMPLE SPACE AND RELATIONSHIP
AMONG EVENTS

A sample space is a set of all possible outcomes of a random process.

The sample space is generally denoted using the letter S. We can also think about a
sample space as a set of all possible outcomes for a random selection from a specified
population. The outcomes listed in a sample space do not overlap, and no outcome is
omitted from the list.
For example, the sample space associated with a die toss can be written as
S= {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
On the other hand, if we are only interested in acknowledging the occurrence of odd
or even numbers in a die toss, we can write the sample space as S= {even, odd}.
However, the former sample space provides all the necessary details, whereas some
information is lost in the latter way of writing the sample space.

Example 2.1
Suppose an inspector is measuring the length of a machined rod; a sample
space could be listed as S = {1, 2, 3, …, 50, 51, …, 75, 76, …} if the length is rounded
to the closest integer. On the other hand, an appropriate sample space could be S =
{x | x ∈ I , x > 0}, which is read as “the set of all integers numbers x such that x > 0.”
Explanation:
As seen from these examples, sample spaces for a particular process are not
unique; they must be selected so as to provide all pertinent information for a given
situation. How to define the sample space depends on the nature of the measurement
process and identified goal(s) of the experiment.

An event is any subset of a sample space. An event is a collection of elements

from a sample space. Typically, events are denoted using capital letters such as A, B,
C, or E1, E2, E3. To further understand events, carefully study the list of examples
below.

Example 2.2
• In the process of checking the quality of manufactured items, a supervisor
inspects one item and classifies it as defective or non-defective. Then the
sample space is
S = {defective, non-defective}
One event in this experiment can be defined as A = Observing a
defective item
 • In the process of checking quality of a lot of incoming material, a supervisor
inspects a sample of 25 items and classifies each as defective or non-
defective. Then he counts the number of defective items in this sample. This
experiment results in a sample space of

S = {1, 2, 3, 4, …25}

One event in this experiment can be defined as A = Observing at most 2

defective items. Then A = {0, 1, 2}. Another event can be defined as B =
Observing at least 2 but no more than 7 defective items. Then B = {2, 3, 4,
5, 6, 7}.

• A machine is set to cut rods of length 12 inches. An inspector is measuring

the length of a machined rod and recording the deviation from the required
length. The deviations are recorded to the nearest tenth of an inch. The
machine arm extends only 2 inches on either side of the set length. Then
the sample space is

S = {-2.0, -1.9, … -0.3, -0.2, -0.1, 0, 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, …, 1.9, 2.0}
where the negative measurement indicates a rod shorter than the required length
and a positive measurement indicates a rod longer than the required length. If x =
the deviation from the required length, then the sample space could be described
as
S = { x | x = -2.0 (0.1) 2.0}
and it is read as “the set of all numbers between -2.0 and 2.0 inclusive with an
increment of 0.1.” Some possible events can be defined as follows:
E1 = Cutting rods of shorter than the required length
E2 = Cutting rods of longer than the required length
E3 = Cutting rods within of an inch of the required length

We can write the sample spaces for these events as,

E1 = { -2.0, -1.9,…, -0.2, -0.1}
E2 = {0.1, 0.2, …, 1.9, 2.0}
E3 = { -0.5, -0.4, -0.3, -0.2, -0.1, 0, 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5}

Now the question that comes to mind is, “Are all possible outcomes listed in the sample
space S equally likely to occur?”
• Consider the experiment of tossing a 6-sided fair die. The associated
sample space is the list of numbers on six faces of this die, in other words,
S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. We refer to this die as a fair die because the likelihood
of each face when thrown is the same.
• Consider the experiment of measuring rod lengths described above. Are all
deviations, -2.0 to 2.0 (in 0.10 inch increments) equally likely to occur? In
 other words, is the machine likely to cut about same number of rods with
each possible deviation? Hopefully not. The machine is likely to cut more
rods with smaller deviations and comparatively fewer rods with larger
deviations from the required length. In other words, too large and too small
rods are less likely to be cut than the rods of lengths closer to 12 inches.

• Consider the process of classifying items as defective or non-defective. Any

acceptable process is much more likely to produce non-defective items than
defective items.

Two events are said to be equally likely events if one does not occur more often than the
other. For example, the six possible outcomes for a fair die are equally likely, whereas possible
deviations in rod lengths are not. In the process of classifying items as defective and non-
defective, are the events A= defective item and B = non-defective item equally likely?
A tree diagram representation is useful in determining a sample space for an experiment.

Example 2.3
Suppose a firm is deciding to build two new plants, one in the east and one in the west.
Four eastern cities (A, B, C, D) and two western cities (E, F) are being considered.
Thus, there are 8 possibilities for locating the two plants as shown by the tree diagram
in Figure 2.1:

Figure 2.1 A Tree Diagram

Adapted from Probability

and Statistics for Engineers
by Scheaffer, Mulekar,
McClave, 5th ed.

From the tree diagram in Figure 2.1, we can easily write the sample space as
S = {AE, AF, BE, BF, CE, CF, DF, DF}
where A, B, C, D are four eastern cities, and E and F are two western cities under
consideration.
Venn diagrams are often convenient and effective for displaying sample spaces,
events, and relations among different events. A Venn diagram is a pictorial
representation of events and a sample space that makes use of circles.
Example 2.4
For the experiment of throwing a 6-sided die, let us define the following events:
A = An even number shows up
B = An odd number shows up
C = A number greater than 4 shows up
E3 = Observing face with number 3

Then the sample space S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}, and events A = {2, 4, 6}, B = {1, 3, 5}, C
= {5, 6}, and E3 = {3} can be displayed using a Venn diagram, as shown in Figure 2.2

Figure 2.2 Venn diagram for

a die toss

Adapted from Probability

and Statistics for Engineers
by Scheaffer, Mulekar,
McClave, 5th ed.

Example 2.5
Suppose there are 100 majors in the department of Electrical Engineering at
one university. Define events as follows:
A = Students enrolled in a calculus course
B = Students enrolled in a signal processing course
Of these 100 students, suppose 30 are enrolled in the calculus course, 25 are
enrolled in the signal processing course, and 10 in both. Then, the sample space S is
the list of all 100 students. Event A lists 30 students in the calculus course, and event
B lists 25 students in the signal processing class. The figure below shows a Venn
diagram representation of sample space and events.

Figure 2.3 Venn diagram of

student enrollment

Adapted from Probability

and Statistics for Engineers
by Scheaffer, Mulekar,
McClave, 5th ed.

Events A and B are not equally likely. There are more students enrolled in the
calculus course than the signal processing course. If a student is selected at
random, then he/she is more likely to be enrolled in the calculus class than in the
signal processing class.
RELATIONSHIPS AMONG EVENTS
In addition to the occurrence of events A and B, the Dean of the College of Engineering
might also be interested in determining the likelihood of events that
• The student is not enrolled in a signal processing course.
• The student is enrolled in both calculus and signal processing.
• The student is enrolled in at least one of the two courses (calculus and signal
processing).
• The student is enrolled in neither calculus nor signal processing.

Such events are determined by the complement of an event or by combining the

events, using union and intersection.

Figure 2.4 Venn diagram of

set relations

Adapted from Probability

and Statistics for Engineers
by Scheaffer, Mulekar,
McClave, 5th ed.

• The complement of an event is the set of all possible outcomes in a sample space
that do not belong to the event. In other words, the complement of A with respect to A
is the set of all points in S that are not in A. The complement of an event A is denoted
by A. In Figure 2.3a, the shaded area shows the complement of event A.
• The union of events A and B is a set of all possible outcomes that belong to at least
one of two events A and B. The union of events A and B is denoted by (A Ս B) or (A
or B). In Figure 2.3b, the shaded area shows the union of events A and B.
• The intersection of events A and B is a set of all possible outcomes that belong to
both events A and B. The intersection of events A and B is denoted by (A Ո B) or (A
and B) or AB. In Figure 2.3c, the area overlapped by both the circles shows the
intersection of events A and B.
• The disjoint or mutually exclusive events are events that have no outcome in
common. Disjoint or mutually exclusive events cannot occur together. Figure 2.3d
shows such events.
Figure 2.3 shows that
• A Ս Ā = S for any set A.
• AB = Φ if events A and B are mutually exclusive. Here Φ denotes the null set or the
set consisting of no points.
Other important relationships among events are as follows:

• Distributive laws:

• De Morgan’s laws:

It is important to be able to relate descriptions of sets to their symbolic notation and to

be able to list correctly or count the elements in sets of interest, as illustrated by the
following examples.

Example 2.6
Suppose there are 100 majors in the department of electrical engineering at one
university. A student is randomly selected from these 100 majors, then let us define
events as follows:
A = Student is enrolled in a calculus course.
B = Student is enrolled in a signal processing course.
Of these 100 students, suppose 30 are enrolled in the calculus course, 25 are enrolled
in the signal processing course, and 10 in both. Figure 2.4 shows the Venn diagram
representation of the situation.

Figure 2.5 Venn diagram

with counts of student
enrollment

Adapted from Probability

and Statistics for Engineers
by Scheaffer, Mulekar,
McClave, 5th ed.

Then some of the events and their portions of the sample spaces are as follows:
• Ā: Student is not enrolled in the Calculus course = {…list of 70 students not enrolled
in the calculus course…}
• A Ո B: Student is enrolled in both the calculus and the signal processing course =
{…list of 10 students enrolled in both the courses …}
• A Ս B: Student is enrolled in at least one of two courses (calculus and signal
processing) = {…list of 20 10 15 45 students enrolled in either calculus, or signal
processing or both…}
• ̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
𝑨 Ս 𝑩 = Student is enrolled in neither course = {…list of 55 students not enrolled in
either course…}
Example 2.6
Twenty electric motors are pulled from an assembly line and inspected for defects.
Eleven of the motors are free of defects, eight have defects on the exterior finish, and
three have defects in their assembly and will not run. Let A denote the set of motors
having assembly defects and F the set having defects on their finish. Using A and F,
write a symbolic notation for the following:
a the set of motors having both types of defects
b the set of motors having at least one type of defect
c the set of motors having no defects
d the set of motors having exactly one type of defect

Then give the number of motors in each set.

a. The motors with both types of defects must be in A and F; thus, this event
can be written AF. Because only nine motors have defects, whereas A
contains three and F contains eight motors, two motors must be in AF. (See
Figure 2.5.)
b. The motors having at least one type of defect must have either an assembly
defect or a finish defect. Hence, this set can be written A Ս F. Because 11
motors have no defects, 9 must have at least one defect.
c. The set of motors having no defects is the complement of the set having at
least one defect and is written ̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
𝑨∪𝑭=𝑨 ̅𝑭̅ (by De Morgan’s Law). Clearly,
11 motors fall into this set.
d. d The set of motors having exactly one type of defect must be either in A
̅ 𝑭 Ս 𝑨𝑭
and not in F on in F and not in A. This set can be written 𝑨 ̅ and seven
motors fall into the set.
 PRACTICE PROBLEMS

2.1P Of the 2.7 million engineers in a state, 65.5% are male. In addition, 40.6% are
civil engineers, 15.7% are electrical engineers, 10.5% are Petroleum, 33.2% are on
the other engineering fields. Construct a meaningful table to compare number of
engineers by sex and by the field of specialization.

2.2P Of 25 microcomputers available in a supply room, 10 have circuit boards for a

printer, 5 have circuit boards for a modem, and 13 have neither type of board. Using
P to denote those that have printer boards and M to denote those that have modem
boards, symbolically denote the following sets, and give the number of
microcomputers in each set. Construct a table to display these data.
a Those that have both boards.
b Those that have neither board.
c Those that have printer boards only.
d Those that have exactly one of the boards.
 LECTURE 2:
COUNTING RULES USEFUL IN
PROBABILITY

Before we proceed to the counting rules, we must first define and understand what is
Probability. Consider the situation below:
At the start of a football game, a balanced coin is flipped to decide who will receive the
ball first. What is the chance that the coin will land heads up?
At the start of a football game, a balanced coin is flipped to decide who will receive the
ball first. Because the coin is balanced, there is an equal chance of the coin landing
on heads or tails. So, we could say that the chance, or the probability, of this coin
landing on heads is 0.5. What does that mean? If the coin is tossed 10 times, will it
land exactly 5 times on heads? Not necessarily. Each run of 10 tosses will result in a
different number of heads. However, in repeated flipping, the coin should land heads
up approximately 50% of the time. Will 1,000 tosses result in exactly 500 heads? Not
necessarily, but the fraction of heads should be close to 0.5 after many flips of a coin.
Words like “probably,” “likely,” and “chances” convey similar ideas. They convey some
uncertainty about the happening of an event. In statistics, a numerical statement about
the uncertainty is made using probability with reference to the conditions under which
such a statement is true. For example, in the manufacturing business, the quality
inspectors are uncertain about the quality of incoming lots, managers are uncertain
about the demand for different items being manufactured, and the system manager is
uncertain about exactly how long it will be before the next interruption in the
communication system will occur.
Probability is a measure of the likelihood of an event. The probability of an event
is generally denoted by P(event). If the events in a sample space are equally likely,
then the intuitive idea of probability is related to the concept of relative frequency as
Number of outcomes favorable to the event
𝑃(event) =
Total number of possible outcomes
In the earlier example of engineering students (Example 2.6), a student is randomly
selected from the 100 majors, and events A and B are defined as follows: A = Student
is enrolled in a calculus course, and B = Student is enrolled in a signal processing
course. Therefore,
30 25
𝑃 (𝐴) = and 𝑃 (𝐵 ) =
100 100

Using similar logic, we can find

• The probability that a student is enrolled in both courses as 10/100
• The probability that a student is enrolled in neither course as 55/100
 Suppose S is a sample space associated with a random process. A probability is a
numerically valued function that assigns a number P(A) to every event A such that
P(A) ≥ 0
P(S) = 1
If A1, A2, …, is a series of mutually exclusive events, then
∞ ∞

𝑃 (⋃ 𝐴𝑖 ) = ∑ 𝑃 (𝐴𝑖 )
𝑖=1 𝑖=1

Probabilities are determined by constructing a theoretical model for a sample space

or by collecting data from the random processes being studied. Probabilities of events
can be estimated from the observed data or simulated chance experiments.

Example 2.7
In the year 2002, was a randomly selected employed person more likely to be a man? Was a
randomly selected employed person more likely to be a government employee? To answer
these questions, consider the estimates the Bureau of Labor Statistics provides on the
employment rates during the year 2002, by gender and type of industry.
If a person employed in 2002 was selected at random, then
• P (selected person was a woman) = 0.46
• P (selected person was working for the government) = 0.53

Table 4.2 shows that, in the year 2002,

• The probability of being employed was higher for men (0.54) than women (0.46).
• About 53% of those employed were in the government compared to 38% in manufacturing
and only 9% in information. In other words, the probability of being employed in the
government was higher than the probability of being employed in the fields of manufacturing
or information.

Table 2.1

Adapted from Probability

and Statistics for Engineers
by Scheaffer, Mulekar,
McClave, 5th ed.

When no such data is available to assist us in estimating probabilities of events, we can

sometimes simulate the events a large number of times and compute the relative frequencies
of events. The following example shows the association between the probability of an event
and the relative frequency of experimental outcomes.
Example 2.8
Take a standard paper cup, with the open end slightly larger than the closed end. Toss it in
the air and allow it to land on the floor. What is the likelihood that it will land on its open end?
On its side? We don’t know. So let us experiment. The goal is to approximate the probability
that the cup would land on the open end and the probability that it would land on its side.
• Toss the cup 100 times.
• Record the sequence of outcome (lands on open end, closed end, or side).
• Estimate the probability of landing on the open end as

Number of times cup landed on the open end

𝑃 (Landing on the open end) =
Total number of tosses

• Plot this probability against the number of tosses.

• What do you observe about this probability from your graph?

When some students did this experiment in class, the sample paths of two of the trials
came out as shown in Figure 2.6a (labeled as sample 1 and sample 2). Notice two important
features of the graph:
• Both sample paths oscillate greatly for small numbers of observations and then settle
down around a value close to 0.20.
• The variation between the two sample fractions is quite great for small sample sizes and
quite small for larger sample sizes. From the Figure 2.6a, we conclude that the probability of
a tossed cup landing on its open end is approximately 0.20.

Figure 2.6 Proportions of cup landings

Adapted from Probability and Statistics for Engineers by Scheaffer, Mulekar, McClave, 5th ed.

Now look at Figure 2.6b. It includes two sample paths for the outcome “landed on the side.”
Both paths seem to stabilize around 0.60. Using the notion of probability as a long-run relative
frequency, we can say that the probability of a tossed cup landing on its side is about 0.6.
Because three events–landing on the open end, landing on the side, and landing on the
closed end–make up the sample space, using these two results we can say that the probability
of a tossed cup landing on its closed end is approximately 0.20.
 Now that we know what Probability is, we can now prceed to studying the counting rules
or techniques used in probability.
Let’s look at the die toss from a slightly different perspective. Because there are six
outcomes that should be equally likely for a balanced die, the probability of A, observe an even
number, is

3 Number of outcomes favorable to 𝐴

𝑃 (A) = =
6 Total number of eqially likely outcomes

This “definition” of probability will work for any random phenomenon resulting in a finite
sample space with equally likely outcomes. Thus, it is important to be able to count the number
of possible outcomes for a random selection. The number of outcomes can easily become
quite large, and counting them is difficult without a few counting rules. Four such rules are
presented in this section.

1. Product Rule - If the first task of an experiment can result in possible outcomes and
for each such outcome, the second task can result in possible outcomes, then there
are possible outcomes for the two tasks together.

Example 2.9

Suppose a quality control inspector examines two manufactured items selected from a
production line. Item 1 can be defective or non-defective, as can item 2. How many
possible outcomes are possible for this experiment? In this case, listing the possible
outcomes is easy. Using Di to denote that the ith item is defective and Ni to denote that
the ith item is non-defective, the possible outcomes are
D1D2 D1N2 N1D2 N1N2
These four outcomes could be placed in a two-way table as in Figure 4.12(a) or a tree
diagram in Figure 4.12(b). This table helps us see that the four outcomes arise from the
fact that the first item has two possible outcomes and the second item has two possible
outcomes, and hence the experiment of looking at both items has 2 2 4 outcomes. This
is an example of the product rule.

Figure 2.7 Possible Outcomes for inspecting two items

Adapted from Probability and Statistics for Engineers by Scheaffer, Mulekar, McClave, 5 th ed.

The product rule extends to more than two tasks in a sequence. If, for example, three items
were inspected and each could be defective or non-defective, then there would be 2 x 2 x 2 =
8 possible outcomes. The product rule helps only in finding the number of elements in a
sample space. We must still assign probabilities to these elements to complete our
probabilistic model.
Example 2.10
Tree diagrams are also helpful in verifying the product rule and in listing possible
outcomes. Suppose a firm is deciding where to build two new plants, one in the east
and one in the west. Four eastern cities and two western cities are possibilities. Thus,
there are n1n2 = 4 x 2 = 8 possibilities for locating the two plants. Figure 2.8 shows the
listing of these possibilities on a tree diagram.

Figure 2.8 Possible

outcomes for locating two
plants

Adapted from Probability

and Statistics for Engineers
by Scheaffer, Mulekar,
McClave, 5th ed.

2. Permutation is the number of ordered arrangements, or permutations, of r objects

selected from n distinct objects (r ≤ n). It is given by

𝑛!
𝑃𝑟𝑛 = 𝑛(𝑛 − 1). . . (𝑛 − 𝑟 + 1) =
(𝑛 − 𝑟 ) !
Each separate arrangement of all or part of a set of items is called a
permutation. The number of permutations is the number of different arrangements in
which items can be placed. Notice that if the order of the items is changed, the
arrangement is different, so we have a different permutation. Say we have a total of n
items to be arranged, and we can choose r of those items at a time, where r ≤ n. The
number of permutations of n items chosen r at a time is written nPr. For permutations
we consider both the identity of the items and their order.
Let us think for a minute about the number of choices we have at each step
along the way. If there are n distinguishable items, we have n choices for the first item.
Having made that choice, we have (n–1) choices for the second item, then (n – 2)
choices for the third item, and so on until we come to the rth item, for which we have
(n – r + 1) choices. Then the total number of choices is given by the product (n) (n – 1)
(n – 2) (n – 3) ... (n – r + 1). But remember that we have a short-hand notation for a
related product, (n) (n – 1) (n – 2) (n – 3) ... (3) (2) (1) = n!, which is called n factorial
or factorial n. Similarly, r! = (r)(r – 1)(r – 2)(r – 3)... (3)(2)(1), and (n – r)! = (n – r)(n – r
– 1) ((n – r – 2)...(3)(2)(1). Then the total number of choices, which is called the number
of permutations of n items taken r at a time, is
𝑛! 𝑛(𝑛 − 1)(𝑛 − 2) … (2)(1)
𝒏𝑷𝒓 = =
( 𝑛 − 𝑟) ! (𝑛 − 𝑟)(𝑛 − 𝑟 − 1) … (3)(2)(1)
By definition, 0! = 1. Then the number of choices of n items taken n at a time is
𝒏𝑷𝒓 = 𝒏
 Example 2.11
From among 10 employees, three are to be selected for travel to three out-of-town plants, A,
B, and C, with one employee traveling to each plant. Because the plants are in different cities,
the order of assigning the employees to the plants is an important consideration. The first
person selected might, for instance, go to plant A and the second to plant B. In how many
ways can the assignments be made?
Solution:
Because order is important, the number of possible distinct assignments is
𝟏𝟎!
𝒏𝑷𝒓 = 𝑷𝟏𝟎
𝟑 = = (𝟏𝟎)(𝟗)(𝟖) = 𝟕𝟐𝟎
𝟕!

In other words, there are 10 choices for plant Abut only nine for plant Band eight for
plant C. This gives a total of 10(9)(8) ways of assigning employees to the plants.

3. Combination is the number of distinct subsets, or combinations, of size r that can be

selected from n distinct objects (r ≤ n). It is given by

𝑛 𝑛!
( )=
𝑟 𝑟! (𝑛 − 𝑟)!

Combinations are similar to permutations, but with the important difference that
combinations take no account of order. Thus, AB and BA are different permutations but
the same combination of letters. Then the number of permutations must be larger than the
number of combinations, and the ratio between them must be the number of ways the
chosen items can be arranged. Say on an examination we have to do any eight questions
10!
out of ten. The number of permutations of questions would be 10P8 = . Remember 2! that
2!
the number of ways in which eight items can be arranged is 8!, so the number of
1
combinations must be reduced by the factor . . Then the number of combinations of 10
8!
10! 1
distinguishable items taken 8 at a time is ( )( ) general, the number of combinations of
2! 8!
n items taken r at a time is

𝒏𝑷𝒓 𝒏!
𝒏𝑪𝒓 = (𝑛𝑟) = = (𝒏−𝒓)!𝒓!
𝒓!

𝒏𝑪𝒓 gives the number of equally likely ways of choosing r items from a group of n
distinguishable items. That can be used with the classical approach to probability.
Example 2.12
Suppose that three employees are to be selected from ten to visit a new plant. (a) In how many
ways can the selection be made? (b) If two of the ten employees are female and eight are
male, what is probability that exactly one female gets selected among the three?
Solution:
(a) Here, order is not important; we merely want to know how many subsets of size r = 3
can be selected from n = 10 people. The results is

10 𝟏𝟎! (𝟏𝟎)(𝟗)(𝟖)
( )= = = 𝟏𝟐𝟎
3 (𝟑!)! 𝟕! (𝟑)(𝟐)(𝟏)
(b) We have seen that there are ways to select three employees from 10. Similarly, there
are ways to select one female from the two available and ways to select two males
from the eight available. If selections are made at random (that is, if all subsets of three
employees are equally likely to be chosen), then the probability of selecting exactly
one female is
(21)(82) (2)(28) 7
10 = =
( ) 120 15
3

4. The number of ways of partitioning n distinct objects into k groups containing n1, n2,
…, nk objects, respectively, is
𝑛!
𝑛1 ! 𝑛2 ! … 𝑛𝑘 !
Where
𝑘

∑ 𝑛𝑖 = 𝑛
𝑖=1

The partitioning of n objects into k groups can be done by first selecting a subset of size n 1
from the n objects, then selecting a subset of size n2 from the n – n1 objects that remain, and
so on until all groups are filled. The number of ways of doing this is
𝑛 𝑛 − 𝑛1 𝑛 − 𝑛1 − ⋯ − 𝑛𝑘−1
( )( )…( )
𝑛1 𝑛2 𝑛𝑘
𝑛! (𝑛 − 𝑛1 )! (𝑛 − 𝑛1 − ⋯ 𝑛𝑘−1 )!
= ∙ ∙… ∙
𝑛1 ! (𝑛 − 𝑛1 )! 𝑛2 ! (𝑛 − 𝑛1 − 𝑛2 )! 𝑛𝑘 ! 0!
𝑛!
=
𝑛1 ! 𝑛2 ! … 𝑛𝑘 !
Example 2.13
Suppose that 10 employees are to be divided among three jobs, with three employees going
to job I, four to job II, and three to job III. (a) In how many ways can the job assignment be
made? (b) Suppose the only three employees of a certain ethnic group all get assigned to job
I. What is the probability of this happening under a random assignment of employees to jobs?
Solution:
(a) This problem involves a partitioning of the n = 10 employees into groups of size n1 =
3, n2 = 4, and n3 = 3, and it can be accomplished in ways.

𝑛! (10)! (10 ∙ 9 ∙ 8 ∙ 7 ∙ 6 ∙ 5)
= = = = 4,200
𝑛1 ! 𝑛2 ! 𝑛3 ! 3! 4! 3! (3 ∙ 2 ∙ 1)(3 ∙ 2 ∙ 1)
Notice the number of ways this task can be accomplished.

(b) As seen in part (a) there are 4,200 ways of assigning the 10 workers to three jobs.
The event of interest assigns three specified employees to job I. It remains to be
determined how many ways the other seven employees can be assigned to jobs II and
III, which is

(7)! (7 ∙ 6 ∙ 5)
= = 35
4! 3! (3 ∙ 2 ∙ 1)
Thus, the chance of assigning three specific workers to job I is
35 1
=
4,200 120

PRACTICE PROBLEMS

2.3P A commercial building is designed with two entrances, door I and door II. Two customers
arrive and enter the building.
(a) List the elements of a sample space for this observational experiment.
(b) If all elements in part (a) are equally likely, find the probability that both customers
use door I; then find the probability that both customers use the same door.

2.4P Five employees of a firm are ranked from 1 to 5 based on their ability to program a
computer. Three of these employees are selected to fill equivalent programming jobs. If all
possible choices of three (out of the five) are equally likely, find the following probabilities
a The employee ranked number 1 is selected.
b The highest-ranked employee among those selected has rank 2 or lower.
c The employees ranked 4 and 5 are selected.
 LECTURE 3:
RULES OF PROBABILITY

Earlier we discussed relationships among different events. How can we use these
relationships to determine the probabilities of required events? Rules that aid in the calculation
of probabilities will now be developed.
Categories like “women” and “men” are complementary in the sense that a worker must be in
one or the other. Because the percentage of women among new workers is 65% (see Table
4.17), the percentage of men must be 35%; the two together must add to 100%.

Table 2.2 Table 2.3

Adapted from Probability and Statistics for Engineers by Scheaffer, Mulekar, McClave, 5th ed.

When we add percentages (or relative frequencies), we must take care to preserve the
mutually exclusive character of the events. The percentage of whites, both men and women,
is clearly 42% 15% 57% (see Table 2.2). However, the percentage of new workers that are
either white or women is not 65% 57%. To find the fraction of those who are white or women,
the 42% that are both white and women must be subtracted from the above total. Otherwise,
they will be counted twice, once with white workers and once with women workers. So, the
total percentage of white or women can be obtained using information from Table 2.3 as
65% + 57% - 42% = 80%
which is same as accumulating the percentages among the appropriate mutually exclusive
categories:
9% + 14% + 42% + 15% = 80%

What about the 15% that are both men and white? Another way to view this type of question
is to use the conditional percentages (see Table 2.3). If we know that 35% of the workers are
men and 43% of men are white, then 43% of the 35%, that is, 15%, must represent the
percentage of white men among the new workers.
 1. Complementary Events

If Ā is the complement of an event A in a sample space S, then

𝑃(𝐴̅) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴) ⋯

In probabilistic terms, recall that the complement Ā of an event A is the set of all
outcomes in a sample space S that are not in A. Thus, A and A are mutually exclusive,
and their union is S. That is, A Ս Ā. It follows that

𝑃 (𝐴 Ս 𝐴̅) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐴̅) = 𝑃(𝑆) = 1 𝑜𝑟 𝑃(𝐴̅) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴)

Example 2.14
A quality-control inspector has ten assembly lines from which to choose products for
testing. Each morning of a five-day week, she randomly selects one of the lines to work on for
the day. Find the probability that a line is chosen more than once during the week.

Solution:
It is easier here to think in terms of complements and first find the probability that no
line is chosen more than once. If no line is repeated, five different lines must be chosen on
successive days, which can be done in 𝑃510 ways. The total number of possible outcomes for
the selection of five lines without restriction is 105, by an extension of the multiplication rule.
Thus,
𝑃510 10 (9)(8)(7)(6)
𝑃(no line is chosen more than once) = 5 = = 0.30
10 105
And,
P (a line is chosen more than once) = 1.0 – 0.30 = 0.70

2. Additive Rule

This can be divided into two parts, depending upon whether there is overlap between
the events being combined.
(a) If the events are mutually exclusive, there is no overlap: if one event occurs, other
events cannot occur. In that case the probability of occurrence of one or another
of more than one event is the sum of the probabilities of the separate events.

If A and B are mutually exclusive, then

𝑃 (𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵)

(b) If the events are not mutually exclusive, there can be overlap between them. This
can be visualized using a Venn diagram. The probability of overlap must be
subtracted from the sum of probabilities of the separate events (i.e., we must not
count the same area on the Venn Diagram twice).
 A B

AB

If A and B are any two events, then

𝑃 (𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴𝐵)

The additive rule is useful in determining the probability of union of events. By

extending this logic to more than two events, the formula for the probability of the union
of k events A1, A2,…,Ak is given by

𝑃(𝐴1 ∪ 𝐴2 ∪ ⋯ ∪ 𝐴𝑘 )
𝑘

= ∑ 𝑃(𝐴𝑖 ) − ∑ ∑ 𝑃(𝐴𝑖 𝐴𝑗 ) + ∑ ∑ 𝑃(𝐴𝑖 𝐴𝑗 𝐴𝑙 ) − ⋯ + ⋯ − (〖−1)〗𝑘 𝑃(𝐴1 𝐴2 ⋯ 𝐴𝑘 )

𝑖−1 𝑖<𝑗 𝑖<𝑗<𝑙

Example 2.15
Suppose there are 50 students enrolled in the calculus course, 45 students enrolled in
the signal processing course, and 10 in both. Select one student at random from this group of
100 students.
A = Student is enrolled in a calculus course
B = Student is enrolled in a signal processing course
The probability that the selected student is enrolled in a calculus class is P(A) = 0.50,
the probability that the selected student is enrolled in a signal processing class is 0.45, and
the probability that the selected student is enrolled in both the classes is 0.10. Then the
probability that the student is enrolled in at least one of two classes is
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵),
= 0.50 + 0.45 – 0.10 = 0.85
Note that two events A and B are not mutually exclusive because there are 10 students
enrolled in both the courses. If we just add the probabilities of two events, then we’ll be
counting those 10 students twice, once in event A and once with event B. Therefore, we have
to subtract it once. The probability that the student is enrolled in none of these classes is

𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 1 − 0.85 = 0.15

3. Multiplicative Rule

(a) The basic idea for calculating the number of choices can be described as follows: Say
there are n1 possible results from one operation. For each one of these, there are n2
possible results from a second operation. Then there are (n 1 × n2) possible outcomes
of the two operations together. In general, the numbers of possible results are given
by products of the number of choices at each step. Probabilities can be found by taking
ratios of possible results.

(b) The simplest form of the Multiplication Rule for probabilities is as follows: If the events
are independent, then the occurrence of one event does not affect the probability
of occurrence of another event. In that case the probability of occurrence of more
than one event together is the product of the probabilities of the separate events. (This
is consistent with the basic idea of counting stated above.) If A and B are two separate
events that are independent of one another, the probability of occurrence of both A
and B together is given by:

If A and B are independent, then

𝑃(𝐴𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴)𝑃(𝐵)
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵)

(c) If the events are not independent, one event affects the probability for the other
event. In this case conditional probability must be used. The conditional probability
of B given that A occurs, or on condition that A occurs, is written P [B | A]. This is read
as the probability of B given A, or the probability of B on condition that A occurs.
Conditional probability can be found by considering only those events which meet the
condition, which in this case is that A occurs. Among these events, the probability that
B occurs is given by the conditional probability, P [B | A]. In the reduced sample space
consisting of outcomes for which A occurs, the probability of event B is P [B | A].

If A and B are any two events, then

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴)
= 𝑃(𝐵) × 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵)
This implies that conditional probability can be obtained by:
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
𝑃(𝐵 |𝐴) = 𝑜𝑟 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) =
𝑃(𝐴) 𝑃(𝐵)
The multiplication rule is useful to determine the probability of intersection of events.
This rule is actually just a rearrangement of the definition of conditional probability for
the case in which a conditional probability may be known and we want to find the
probability of an intersection.
Example 2.16
Records indicate that for the parts coming out of a hydraulic repair shop at an airplane
rework facility, 20% will have a shaft defect, 10% will have a bushing defect, and 75% will be
defect-free. For an item chosen at random from this output, find the probability of the following:
A: The item has at least one type of defect.
B: The item has only a shaft defect.
Solution:
The percentages given imply that 5% of the items have both a shaft defect and a
bushing defect. Let D1 denote the event that an item has a shaft defect and D2 the event that
it has a bushing defect. Then 𝐴 = 𝐷1 ∪ 𝐷2 and
𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐷1 ) + 𝑃(𝐷2 ) − 𝑃(𝐷1 𝐷2 )
= 0.20 + 0.10 – 0.05 = 0.25
Another possible solution is to observe that the complement of A is the event that an
item has no defects. Thus,

𝑃(𝐴) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴) = 1 − 0.75 = 0.25

To find P(B), note that the event D1 that the item has a shaft defect is the union of the
event that it has only a shaft defect (B) and the event that it has both defect (D1D2). That is,
𝐷1 = 𝐵 ∪ 𝐷1 𝐷2 where B and D1D2 are mutually exclusive. Therefore,
𝑃(𝐷1 ) = 𝑃(𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐷1 𝐷2 )
Or,
𝑃(𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐷1 ) − 𝑃(𝐷1 𝐷2 ) = 0.20 − 0.05 = 0.15
You should sketch these events on a Venn diagram and verify the results
derived above.
 4. Baye’s Rule

The fourth rule we present in this section is based on the notion of a partition
of a sample space. Events B1, B2, …, Bk are said to partition a sample space S
if two conditions exist:
1. 𝐵𝑖 𝐵𝑗 = ∅ for any pair 𝑖 and 𝑗 (∅ denotes the null set)
2. 𝐵1 ∪ 𝐵2 ∪ ⋯ ∪ 𝐵𝑘 = 𝑆

Figure 2.9 A Partition of S

into B 1 and B 2

Adapted from Probability

and Statistics for Engineers
by Scheaffer, Mulekar,
McClave, 5th ed.

For example, the set of tires in an auto assembly warehouse might be partitioned
according to suppliers, or employees of a firm might be partitioned according to level
of education. We illustrate a partition for the case k = 2 in Figure 2.9. The key idea
involving a partition is the observation that an event A can be written as the union of
mutually exclusive events AB1 and AB2. That is,

𝐴 = 𝐴𝐵1 ∪ 𝐴𝐵2 and thus 𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐴𝐵1 ) + 𝑃(𝐴𝐵2 )

If conditional probabilities 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵1 ) and 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵2 ) are known, then P(A) can be found by
writing

𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐵1 )𝑃(𝐴|𝐵1 ) + 𝑃(𝐵2 )𝑃(𝐴|𝐵2 )

In problems dealing with partitions, it is frequently of interest to find probabilities of the form
𝑃(𝐵1 |𝐴), which can be written

𝑃(𝐵1 𝐴) 𝑃(𝐵1 )𝑃(𝐴|𝐵1 )

𝑃(𝐵1 |𝐴) = =
𝑃(𝐴) 𝑃(𝐵1 )𝑃(𝐴|𝐵1 ) + 𝑃(𝐵2 )𝑃(𝐴|𝐵2 )

This result is a special case of Bayes’ Rule.

Baye’s Rule
If B1, B2, . . . , Bk form a partition of S, and if A is any event in S then

𝑃(𝐵𝑗 )𝑃(𝐴|𝐵𝑗 )
𝑃(𝐵𝑗 |𝐴) = 𝑘
∑𝑖=1 𝑃(𝐵𝑖 )𝑃(𝐴|𝐵𝑖 )
Example 2.17

A company buys tires from two suppliers, 1 and 2. Supplier 1 has a record of delivering tires
containing 10% defectives, whereas supplier 2 has a defective rate of only 5%. Suppose 40%
of the current supply came from supplier 1. If a tire is selected randomly from this supply and
observed to be defective, find the probability that it came from supplier 1.

Solution:

Let Bi denote the event that a tire comes from supplier i(i = 1,2), and note that B1 and B2 form
a partition of the sample space for the experiment of selecting one tire. Let A denote the event that
the selected tire is defective. Then

𝑃(𝐵1 )𝑃(𝐴|𝐵1 )
𝑃(𝐵1 |𝐴) =
𝑃(𝐵1 )𝑃(𝐴|𝐵1 ) + 𝑃(𝐵2 )𝑃(𝐴|𝐵2 )

0.40(0.10)
= = 0.5714
0.40(0.10) + 0.60(0.05)

Supplier 1 has a greater probability of being the party supplying the defective tire than does
supplier 2.
 PRACTICE PROBLEMS

2.5P Resistors produced by a certain firm are marketed as 10-ohm resistors. However,
the actual number of ohms of resistance produced by the resistors may vary.It is
observed that 5% of the values are below 9.5 ohms and 10% are above 10.5 ohms.If
two of these resistors, randomly selected, are used in a system, find the probability
that a Both have actual values between 9.5 and 10.5. b At least one has an actual
value in excess of 10.5.

2.6P A purchasing office is to assign a contract for computer paper and a contract for
microcomputer disks to any one of three firms bidding for these contracts. (Any one
firm could receive both contracts.) Find the probability that a Firm I receives a contract
given that both contracts do not go to the same firm. b Firm I receives both contracts.
c Firm I receives the contract for paper given that it does not receive the contract for
disks. What assumptions have you made?

ASSESSMENT
From your previous assessment on Module 1: Obtaining Data, apply the
counting techniques and rules used in probability in gathering information about
the survey conducted. Provide tree diagrams or Venn diagrams to verify these
results.
 SUPPLEMENTARY KNOWLEDGE

For additional information, you may view the following videos below:
1. Introduction to Probability, Basic Overview – Sample Space and Tree
Diagrams (https://youtu.be/SkidyDQuupA)
2. Probability Lesson 4 Part 1: Counting Techniques
(https://youtu.be/Yuho4Fc21pY)
3. Probability Lesson 4 Part 2: Counting Techniques
(https://youtu.be/56DRrzk0XZU)
4. Multiplication & Addition Rule – Probability – Mutually Exclusive &
Independent Events ((https://youtu.be/94AmzeR9n2w)

ANSWER KEY
Answers to Practice Problems:
2.1P

Sex Male Female

Engineers 1,768,500 931,500

Field Civil Electrical Petroleum Others

1,096,200 423,900 283,500 891,000

2.2P

2.3P

6 4 3
2.4P a. b. c.
10 10 10

2.5P
2.6P
 References

1. R. Scheaffer, M. MuleKar and J. McClave, 2010, Probability and Statistics for

Engineering Students, 5th Edition
2. D. Montgomery and G. Runger, 2014, Applied Statistics and Probability for
Engineers, 6th Edition
3. W.J. DeCoursey, 2003, Statistics and Probability for Engineering Applications
With Microsoft® Excel
4. Jay L. Devore, 2010, Probability and Statistics for Engineering and the
Sciences, 8th Edition