19-26 Oct
19-26 Oct
19-26 Oct
Management
A risk cannot be
managed unless it is first
identified.
Identify
Risks After risk management
plan has been
developed, the next
process is to identify
all the knowable risks
to project objectives.
Considers both individual project risks and sources of overall
Identify Risk project risk
Project Risk
Project Team
Project Manager Specialist (if
Participants Members
assigned)
Stakeholders
Other project Operations Management
managers managers Experts within the
While these personnel are often key participants
organization
for risk identification, all project stakeholders
should be encouraged to identify individual project
Risk Management
risks. It is particularly important to involve the Experts within the
project team so they can develop and maintain a organization.
sense of ownership and responsibility for identified
individual project risks, the level of overall project
risk, and associated risk response actions.
Identify Risk Format
Risk owners for individual project risks may be nominated as part of the
Identify Risks process and will be confirmed during the Perform Qualitative
Risk Analysis process.
Preliminary risk responses may also be identified and recorded and will be
reviewed and confirmed as part of the Plan Risk Responses process.
Identify Risks is an iterative process
Process
Level of overall project risk will also change
Due to the team not being co-located, communication might take a long time, which may lead to
milestone being missed
The system backup/ disaster recovery mechanism may not work, which could lead to a loss of
programming code or data structures and test data developed to date
There have been three instances in this company where the system backup/ disaster recovery
mechanism has not work. Though that system is being investigated, no changes will occur before the
project is completed which means the system backup/ disaster recovery mechanism may not work
which could lead to a loss of programming code or data structures and test data developed to date
Tools for Defining Risks
Forms Checklists Sticky Notes Prompt List Historic Records
Delphi Technique
Tools for • Consensus of experts
Defining • Anonymity
• Time consuming
Risks Cause & effect diagram
The most significant Project Risks are those associated with its
Scope.
Reasons for
Difficulty in Inexperienced
project manager
Difference in
language and
Requirements /team cultures
Gathering Determining
First solution is
requirements
the most obvious
seem to take too
solution mind set
much time
Lack of support
from
management
Reasons for Difficulty in Requirements
Gathering
Lack of historic records
Bureaucratic problems required to start the work before finalization of objectives of project
Fast tracking
Stakeholder issues like keeping the option open for them and not considering the consequences of
unclear requirements
Sources of Scope Risk
While the categories of Scope Risk are many, two important ones are: Change and Defect
Highest Care should be taken in defining
the Deliverables.
Risks Defining the Deliverables for the Project gives the Project
Manager and the team the first indications of the risks in the
proposed project
Consider the Project over its
Perspectives Entire Life-Cycle
to include in
Defining the
Identifying people who will get
Deliverables involved in the various stages of,
or functions within, the Project
Design
Procurement
Contracting
Planning
Perspectives
Defect Liability Certificate
to include in
Defining the Documentation
Deliverables Construction
Billing
Acceptance
From the participants collect a list of Topics (or get the list off a
boilerplate).
Required
Staffing Requirements (in terms of skill and experience)
Additional
Information Cost (rough order-of-magnitude)
Risk Framework
Tangible Deliverables
Risk Complexity Index
• Manpower
• Information
• Machinery, Equipment, Software, Components
Examples of • Money
Resources • Time
• Establishment (Physical and Organizational
Frameworks)
• Services (Communication, Transportation,
Legal)
• Access to Consumables (Power, Fuel, Food,
etc.)
Sources of Resource
Risk
Non-dedicated staff
Internal politics
Different Types of
OUTSOURCING Risks
Late Delivery
Protracted Negotiations
Change in Government
This type of risk does not happen often, but when it does, the effects are drastic.
ITTO Model
ITTO Flow
Outputs: Risk Register
• Each individual project risk is given a unique identifier in the risk register. Identified risks are described in as much
detail as required to ensure unambiguous understanding
• A structured risk statement may be used to distinguish risks from their cause(s) and their effect(s).
• Where a potential risk owner has been identified during the Identify Risks process, the risk owner is recorded in
the risk register
• This will be confirmed during the Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis process
• Where a potential risk response has been identified during the Identify Risks process, it is recorded in the risk
register
• This will be confirmed during the Plan Risk Responses process.
Output: Risk Register
Additional data may be recorded for each identified risk, depending on
the risk register format specified in the risk management plan
• a short risk title
• risk category
• current risk status
• one or more causes
• one or more effects on objectives
• risk triggers (events or conditions that indicate that a risk is about to occur)
• WBS reference of affected activities
• timing information (when was the risk identified, when might the risk occur, when might it
no longer be relevant, and what is the deadline for taking action).
Risk Register
The risk register captures details of identified individual project risks
The results of Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis, Plan Risk Responses, Implement Risk Responses, and Monitor
Risks are recorded in the risk register as those processes are conducted throughout the project
The risk register is updated with new information generated during the Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
process
The risk report presents information on sources of overall project risk, together with summary information on
identified individual project risks
The risk report is developed progressively throughout the Project Risk Management process
The results of Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis, Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis, Plan Risk Responses,
Implement Risk Responses, and Monitor Risks are also included in the risk report as those processes are completed
On completion of the Identify Risks process, information in the risk report may include but is not limited to:
• Sources of overall project risk, indicating which are the most important drivers of overall project risk exposure; and
• Summary information on identified individual project risks, such as number of identified threats and opportunities, distribution of risks across risk
categories, metrics and trends, etc.
Additional information may be included in the risk report, depending on the reporting requirements specified in
the risk management plan.
Risk
Report
• Risk Report contains
summary information of
overall project risk,
opportunities exposure
and trends
Outputs: Project Document Updates
• During the Identify Risks • The issue log should be • The lessons learned register
process, new assumptions updated to capture any new can be updated with
may be made, new issues uncovered or changes information on techniques
constraints may be identified, in currently logged issues. that were effective in
and existing assumptions or identifying risks to improve
constraints may be revisited performance in later phases
and changed. or other projects.
• The assumption log should
be updated with this new
information.
Requirements management plan
• The requirements management plan may indicate project objectives that are
particularly at risk.
• The schedule management plan may identify areas that are subject to uncertainty or
ambiguity.
Management • The cost management plan may identify areas that are subject to uncertainty or
ambiguity.
• The quality management plan may identify areas that are subject to uncertainty or
ambiguity, or where key assumptions have been made that might give rise to risk.
• The resource management plan may identify areas that are subject to uncertainty or
ambiguity, or where key assumptions have been made that might give rise to risk.
Risk management plan.
Scope baseline
Input: Project • The scope baseline includes deliverables and criteria for their acceptance,
some of which might give rise to risk. It also contains the WBS, which can be
used as a framework to structure risk identification techniques.
Management Schedule baseline
Plan • The schedule baseline may be reviewed to identify milestones and deliverable
due dates that are subject to uncertainty or ambiguity, or where key
assumptions have been made that might give rise to risk.
Cost baseline
• Assumptions and constraints recorded in the assumption log may give rise to
individual project risks and may also influence the level of overall project risk.
Cost estimates
Inputs: expressed as a range, indicating the degree of risk, where a structured review
of the documents may indicate that the current estimate is insufficient and
poses a risk to the project.
Issue log
• Issues recorded in the issue log may give rise to individual project risks and
may also influence the level of overall project risk.
Lessons learned register
• Lessons learned about risk identified from earlier phases of the project are
reviewed to determine whether similar risks might recur during the remainder
of the project.
Requirement documentation
Inputs: • Requirement documentation lists the project requirements and allows the
team to identify those that could be at risk.
Stakeholder register
As the procurement documentation is updated throughout the project, the most up to date
documentation can be reviewed for risks.
For example, seller performance reports, approved change requests and information on inspections.
Published material, including
commercial risk databases or checklists,
Inputs:
Academic studies,
Enterprise
Environmental
Factors
Benchmarking results
Such experts should be identified by the project manager and invited to consider
all aspects of individual project risks as well as sources of overall project risk,
based on their previous experience and areas of expertise
The project team usually performs brainstorming, often with a multidisciplinary set of experts who are not
part of the team. Ideas are generated under the guidance of a facilitator, either in a free-form brainstorm
session or one that uses more structured techniques.
Particular attention should be paid to ensuring that risks identified through brainstorming are clearly
described, since the technique can result in ideas that are not fully formed.
A checklist is a list of items,
actions, or points to be It is often used as a reminder
considered
(Checklists) identification
Individual project risks and sources of overall project risk can be identified by
interviewing experienced project participants, stakeholders, and subject
matter experts.
Root cause analysis is typically used to discover the underlying causes that lead to a
problem and develop preventive action.
It can be used to identify threats by starting with a problem statement and exploring
which threats might result in that problem occuring
The same technique can be used to find opportunities by starting with a benefit
statement (for example, early delivery or under budget) and exploring which
opportunities might result in that benefit being realized.
Tools and Techniques: Data Analysis
(Assumption and Constraint Analysis)
For risk identification, it is used to increase the breadth of identified risks by including
internally generated risks
The technique starts with the identification of strengths and weaknesses of the
organization, focusing on either the project, organization, or the business area in general
SWOT analysis then identifies any opportunities for the project that may arise from
strengths, and any threats resulting from weaknesses
The analysis also examines the degree to which organizational strengths may offset
threats and determines if weaknesses might hinder opportunities.
SWOT
Risks may be identified from a structured review
of project documents, including, but not limited
to, plans, assumptions, constraints, previous
Tools and project files, contracts, agreements, and
technical documentation.
Techniques:
Data
Analysis
(Document Uncertainty or ambiguity in project documents,
Analysis) as well as inconsistencies within a document or
between different documents, may be indicators
of risk on the project.
Interpersonal and team skills that can be used for this
process includes but are not limited to facilitation
A prompt list is a predetermined list of risk categories that might give rise to individual project risks and that could
also
The prompt list can be used as a framework to aid the project team in idea generation when using risk
identification techniques
The risk categories in the lowest level of the risk breakdown structure can be used as a prompt list for individual
project risks
Some common strategic frameworks are more suitable for identifying sources of overall project risk, for example:
• stability
Most risk workshops include some form of brainstorming, but other risk
identification techniques may be included depending on the level of the
risk process defined in the risk management plan
Tools and
Techniques: Use of a skilled facilitator will increase the effectiveness of the meeting
Meetings It is also essential to ensure that the right people participate in the risk
workshop
Floods
Earthquake
Landslide
Fire
Wind damage
Physical Risks
Accident on Site
Damage to Equipment
Damages to Machinery
Human injuries
Damages to Infrastructure
Fire eruption
Theft
Engineering Design Risks
Incomplete design
Inexperience Designer
Defective design
Inadequate specifications
Political Risks
Disowner-ship of Project
New Legislation
Environmental Risks
Labor disputes
Stakeholder’s interventions
Labor efficiency
Machinery/equipment failure
Financial & Economical Risks
Inflation
Rise in Salaries
Cash flows
Withdrawal of Acceptance
Protests
Strikes
Financial health
Policies
Thank you