Astronomical influences of Earthquakes

Abhinav Kashyap (author), Sambhram Institute of Technology,

Dept. of Civil Engineering, Bangalore-560097
Email: me.abhinavkashyap@gmail.com
Abstract
There are studies which suggests that following are the types of mechanism where Celestial
bodies could cause Earthquakes, they are:
1. Sun and Moon’s gravitational pull
2. Celestial bodies tidal tug on Earth
3. Sun’s Solar eruption could trigger Earthquakes
In this paper we look into those studies and we do our own statistical studies to see whether
our statistical data supports those studies or not, with more and more Statistical data
(empirical evidence) along with Theoretical model of “Astronomical causes of Earthquakes”
(mechanism) it can be concluded that Earthquake is not only a Geophysical and Geological
phenomenon, but “holistically” an Astrophysical and Astronomical phenomenon. Our Earth
is part of Cosmos.
Introduction
“Astronomy and Astrophysics” is a field of study which studies the Cosmos and different
Cosmic or Astronomical phenomenon like formation of Stars, how Stars die, how our Solar
system was formed, how our Universe began and many more where the Physical or even
Chemical process is explained behind every such Cosmic or Astronomical phenomenon
which took place or is taking place through combined applied knowledge of Physics,
Chemistry and Mathematics.
The term "Astronomy" is an old term for a branch of Science or study which dealt with study
of planets, stars and other Celestial bodies by observing their movements in space.
Astronomy is the oldest Science in existence.
Physics applied to Astronomy is Astrophysics, that is application of Physics applied to
Astronomy in order to explain certain Cosmic or Astronomical phenomenon is called
Astrophysics. Astrophysics is a modern term for Astronomy and much preferred term instead
of Astronomy. But the term Astronomy is still very much in use and popular till this date.
Earthquakes is a natural phenomenon which occurs when rocks (formations) are suddenly
disturbed, a large amount of energy is released and the resulting vibrations spread out in all
directions from the source of the disturbance. An earthquake is the passage of these
vibrations. This energy would have built up over long periods of time as a result of tectonic
forces within the earth. Most moderate – to - large shallow earthquakes are followed, in the
ensuing hours and even in the next few days, by numerous, usually smaller, earthquakes in
the same vicinity. Such smaller shaking of the earth is called an aftershock. Oceanographic
and geological studies indicate that the Earth’s crust comprises several stable rock slabs
known as crustal plates, bordered by rifts (it is a linear zone where the lithosphere is being
pulled apart and is an example of extensional tectonics), mainly in the oceans, along which
the plates are in continuous slow motion relative to one another. The convection currents in
the magma are responsible for the plate movements. It is along the plate boundaries that most
of the earthquakes occur.
But in a new study led by geophysicist Anne M. Hofmeister in Arts & Sciences at
Washington University in St. Louis proposes that imbalanced forces and torques in the Earth
moon-sun system drive circulation of the whole mantle. The new analysis provides an
alternative to the hypothesis that the movement of tectonic plates is related to convection
currents in the Earth’s mantle. Convection involves buoyant rise of heated fluids, which
Hofmeister and her colleagues argue does not apply to solid rocks. They argue that force, not
heat, moves large objects.
 Literature Review
Literature review of studies related to Astronomical influences of Earthquakes:
1. Alexander N. Safronov (2022), In this paper the planetary geometries were studied at the
moments of 92 strong earthquakes with a magnitude of more than 8 on the Richter scale
(R8+) for the period from 1900 to 2011. It was found that in some earthquakes; the planetary
geometries are absolutely identical, which indicates the universality of the mechanism that
caused the earthquake. The triggered effect does not depend on the distance between the
planets and the mass of the planets, so the mechanism is identified as an inertial gravitational
interaction.

2. R. N. Ketkar, M. N. Viladkar, P. N. Agrawal (1991), In this paper periodicities in the

occurrence of earthquakes, as indicated by the cosmic conditions, have been traced by
analysing the planetary data at the time of occurrence of more than 1100 earthquakes of
magnitude, M >= 7.0, which occurred during the period 1896 to 1965. Correlation between
the transits of planets in the sensitive areas and at sensitive longitudes in the zodiac and the
seismicity of California and adjoining area has been shown. Based on the analysis, a method
for forecasting earthquakes is also proposed.

3. M.Hagen, A.Azevedo (2017), The aim of the authors in this paper is to continue analyzing
the interactions in the three-body system made up of the Sun, the Moon, and the Earth. First,
they review new details about Moon-Earth connections, with a special focus on mechanical
forces. Following, they expand the study to consider the pair Sun-Earth, with calculations for
electromagnetic forces. The objective in both cases is to know how mechanical and
electromagnetic forces affect seismological events on Earth. The author’s calculations found
that Solar Cycles have no direct interaction with earthquake variations. Instead, they
established that there is an internal discrepancy for quakes below 35 km detected in some of
the regions analyzed. The results indicate that geomagnetic variations must be studied next to
understand their connections to earthquakes.

4. Dr. Masashi Hayakawa (2006), Electromagnetic phenomena are recently found to take
place prior to an earthquake, and they are regarded as the most promising candidate for short-
term earthquake prediction. This report reviews the recent findings on seismo-
electromagnetic phenomena, including ULF emissions, seismo-atmospheric and -ionospheric
perturebations, Earth’s surface temperature anomaly, in-situ observational results.

5. Marilia Tavares, Anibal Azevedo (2011), This paper inspects possible influence of solar
cycles on earthquakes through of statistical analyses. It also discusses the mechanism that
would drive the occurrence of increasing of earthquakes during solar maxima. The study was
based on worldwide earthquakes events during approximately four hundred years (1600-
2010).The increase of earthquakes events followed the Maxima of Solar cycle, and also
depends on the tectonic plate location. From 1600 until 1645 events increased during the
Maxima in some of the tectonic plates as Pacific, Arabian and South America. The
earthquakes analyzed during two grand solar minima, the Maunder (1645-1720) and the
Dalton (1790-1820) showed a decrease in the number of earthquakes and the solar activity. It
was observed during these minima a significant number of events at specific geological
features. After the last minima (Dalton) the earthquakes pattern increased with solar maxima.

6. Vito Marchitelli, Paolo Harabaglia, Claudia Troise, Giuseppe De Natale (2020), In this
paper, authors analyzed 20 years of proton density and velocity data, as recorded by the
SOHO satellite, and the worldwide seismicity in the corresponding period, as reported by the
ISC-GEM catalogue. They found clear correlation between proton density and the occurrence
of large earthquakes (M> 5.6), with a time shift of one day. The significance of such
correlation is very high, with probability to be wrong lower than 10-5. The correlation
increases with the magnitude threshold of the seismic catalogue. A tentative model
explaining such a correlation is also proposed, in terms of the reverse piezoelectric effect
induced by the applied electric field related to the proton density. This result opens new
perspectives in seismological interpretations, as well as in earthquake forecast.
 Methodology

Following are the methodology used in the studies, which are as follows:

1. Get the Earthquakes data from Internet, worldwide Earthquakes occurred worldwide at
different places at different time.

2. Using Stellarium software, find out the exact positions of the celestial bodies in the sky at
the given time and date of the occurrence of Earthquakes.

3. Note down the position of the celestial bodies in the sky at for the given date and time of
the occurrence of Earthquakes.

4. Find out the magnitude of those Earthquakes as taken from Earthquake data

5 Find out the Solar Cycle number, Solar Cycle type (maxima or minima), Sunspot numbers
for that Solar cycle corresponding to particular years.

6. Plot a graph for Solar Cycle vs Years data, Earthquake Magnitude vs Years data, Bar and
xy axis graph for total conjunction values taken as the conjunction of all celestial bodies
including Sun, Moon and Planets with respect to Earth.

7. Try to see if you get a Normal distribution curve (Bell’s curve) or non-normal distribution
curve for your above data.

8. Find out if there is a correlation for General Kepler Conjunction (gKc), General
Archimedes Lever (gAl) planetary schemes.
 Objective

1. It was found that in some earthquakes; the planetary geometries are absolutely identical,
which indicates the universality of the mechanism that caused the earthquake. The triggered
effect does not depend on the distance between the planets and the mass of the planets, so the
mechanism is identified as an inertial gravitational interaction. Three main planetary schemes
were specified namely generalised Archimedes lever (gAl), general Kepler conjunction (gKc)
and geometry of the triangles of remote signal catcher (cRS).

2. In this paper we look into 8 Earthquake data and try to find a pattern or geometry of
celestial bodies scheme called generalised Archimedes lever (gAl) and general Kepler
conjunction (gKc) related to the collected 8 Earthquake data.

3. We try to come to a conclusion that how Planetary tidal tugs, Sun and Moon’s gravitational
pull and Solar eruptions can be the indirect influence for the cause of Earthquakes which is
considered as purely a Geophysical and geological phenomenon with the help our small
Statistical data on worldwide Earthquakes and Solar activity, Planetary positions data where
we also take into consideration influence of gravitational influence of Sun and Moon in our
statistical study.
Data Analysis

We did statistical analysis which helps in our data analysis of possible “Astronomical
influences of Earthquakes”, following are the data we have collected for our statistical
studies.

Dates Conjunction Sorted Number of (i-0.5)/n normal score

values Conjunction Earthquakes
values data
22-05-1960 5 2 1 0.0625 -1.534120544
28-03-1964 4 2 2 0.1875 -0.887146559
11-03-2011 4 4 3 0.3125 -0.488776411
26-12-2004 2 4 4 0.4375 -0.157310685
04-11-1952 2 5 5 0.5625 0.157310685
27-02-2010 6 5 6 0.6875 0.488776411
04-02-1965 5 5 7 0.8125 0.887146559
15-08-1950 5 6 8 0.9375 1.534120544

normal probability plot

12
10
8
Normal score

6
4
2
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Celestial body
Conjunction values

Graph: Normal probability plot

 Bar graph
2

1.5

0.5

-0.5

-1

-1.5

-2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

x-y axis graph

2

1.5

0.5

-0.5

-1

-1.5

-2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Above graphs: Bar and xy axis graph of Normal probability

 Table: Solar Cycle from 18 to 24 data

S.No YEARS Sunspot Cycle Sunspot Sunspot

Numbers Number (max
or min)
1 1950 Solar Cycle 18 219 Sunspot
Number (max)
2 1952 Solar Cycle 18 219 Sunspot
Number (max)
3 1960 Solar Cycle 19 285 Sunspot
Number (max)
4 1964 Solar Cycle 19 285 Sunspot
Number (max)
5 1965 Solar Cycle 20 14.3 Sunspot
Number (min)
6 2004 Solar Cycle 23 180 Sunspot
Number (max)
7 2010 Solar Cycle 24 2.2 Sunspot
Number (min)
8 2011 Solar Cycle 24 2.2 Sunspot
Number (min)

Year vs Solar Cycle curve

Years Sunspot Numbers

2020 300

2000 250
Sunspot Numbers

1980 200
Years

1960 150

1940 100

1920 50

1900 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Graph: Year vs Solar cycle

S.No Places Years Earthquake Sunspot Sunspot Solar Cycle
Magnitude Cycle Numbers
1 San Pedro 1950 8.2 Solar cycle 219 Solar
18 Maxima
2 Assam-Tibet 1950 8.6 Solar cycle 219 Solar
18 Maxima
3 Kushiro, 1952 8.1 Solar cycle 219 Solar
Japan 18 Maxima
4 Petropavlosky 1952 9 Solar cycle 219 Solar
18 Maxima
5 Canete,Chile 1960 8.1 Solar cycle 285 Solar
19 Maxima
6 Miyako,Japan 1960 8 Solar cycle 285 Solar
19 Maxima
7 Chile 1960 9.5 Solar cycle 285 Solar
19 Maxima
8 Alaska, USA 1964 9.2 Solar cycle 285 Solar
19 Maxima
9 Rat Islands 1965 8.7 Solar Cycle 14.3 Solar
20 Minima
10 Ambon, 1965 8.2 Solar Cycle 14.3 Solar
Indonesia 20 Minima
11 Macquarie 2004 8.1 Solar cycle 180 Solar
island 23 Maxima
12 Sumatra, 2004 9.1 Solar cycle 180 Solar
Indonesia 23 Maxima
13 Chile, 2010 8.8 Solar cycle 2.2 Solar
Quirihue 24 Minima
14 Tohoku, 2011 9.1 Solar cycle 2.2 Solar
Japan 24 Minima

Table: Earthquakes of Magnitude 8-9 for given years

Earthquake Magnitude vs Years graph

10

9.5
Earthquake Magnitude

8.5

7.5

7
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Years

Graph: Earthquake magnitude vs Years

 Applications

1. This study can encourage people or researchers who are interested in Geo-cosmic research
or Solar-Terrestrial influence research to conduct their own studies.

2. This study highlights the importance of Astronomy as a multidisciplinary field where it

contributes to other Science fields indirectly in various aspects.

3. This study inculcates interest in astronomy along with the importance of Earth science like
Geology and Geophysics.

4. This study can contribute in small way to the ongoing Solar-Terrestrial research, especially
“Astronomical influences on Earthquakes”.

5. This study highlights the possible important role of “Astronomical causes of earthquakes”.

6. Further studies can be done based on this study taking it as a reference.

7. This study is done in such a way that general public could get motivated to do their own
study based on this simple study, where small sample size data is taken reducing the
complexities.

8. A software program can be developed where it is able to calculate real time data of
planetary and celestial body’s position in the sky and therefore able to know when the next
possible Earthquakes occurs based on the Celestial body schemes like general Kepler
conjunction (gKc), general Archimedes lever (gAl) and remote signal catcher (cRS) based on
the geometry of triangles. (Dutch researcher Frank Hoogerbeets have developed a SolPage
software)

9. The GPS (Global Positioning system) we use now could also help warn us about
earthquakes. Before an earthquake happens, the ground can create charged particles that
affect a part of the sky called the ionosphere. This could cause the ionosphere to get closer to
Earth and have fewer charged particles in an area up to 100 km wide if there are a lot of
positive charges in the ground. The GPS system could use this information to help give an
early warning for an earthquake. We can tell if there's a change in the number of electrons in
the air by looking at how GPS navigation and other radio signals act. GPS satellites send out
two signals, and if the difference between them changes when they reach a device on the
ground, it means there's a change in the air. Scientists can study these changes to learn more
about the air around us.
 Limitations of the study

The following are the limitations of the study:

1. Getting large number of Earthquake data is challenging.

2. Getting a particular Solar activity values like Sunspot numbers for a particular date and
time is not possible.

3. Proving experimentally that Astronomical phenomenon indeed plays an indirect influence,

if not for direct influence is not possible as both the possibly related Astronomical and
Geophysical phenomenon is not possible to prove it in a lab. They are both natural and
randomly occurring phenomena which requires time, patience and thorough proper
observations by researchers studying this phenomena.

4. There are many factors to be taken in consideration when doing research on such topics or
field as one type of correlation doesn’t apply to everything. Care should be taken to avoid
confirmation bias for especially which this type of studies are prone or susceptible to.

5. All types of Geological and Astronomical factors must be taken in consideration before
coming to or making any conclusion. Otherwise it leads to confirmation bias.

6. Solar-Terrestrial relationship topic is very complicated with many factors involved.

7. This study is a statistical analysis, not a Scientific test in the sense that no concept of
Astrophysics and Geophysics is discussed and nor any Mathematical formula related to
Astrophysics and Geophysics is mentioned in the study.

8. Doing further studies, taking this statistical study requires large number of data related to
Earthquakes and Solar activity which further complicates the study undertaken.
 S.no Places Date and time Magnitude of Celestial body Celestial body
in IST Earthquakes alignments schemes (gKc)
(gAl)
1 Assam-Tibet 15-08-1950 8.6 Su, Ve in follows (gKc)
(19:39) Cancer / Mo, and (gAl)
Me, Sa in Leo scheme
2 Russia 04-11-1952 9 Me, Ve in follows only
(22:22) Scorpio (gKc) scheme
3 Chile 22-05-1960 9.5 Su, Me, Ve in follows (gKc)
(23:45) Taurus / Sa, Ju and (gAl)
in Sagittarius scheme
4 USA 28-03-1964 9.2 Su, Me, Ju, Ma follows (gKc)
(08:06) in Pisces and (gAl)
scheme
5 USA 04-02-1965 8.7 Su, Me, Ve in follows only
(10:31) Capricorn / (gAl) scheme
Mo, Sa in
Aquarius
6 Indonesia 26-12-2004 9.1 Me, Ve in follows only
(06:30) Opiuchus (gKc) scheme
7 Chile 27-02-2010 8.8 Su, Me, Ve, Ju follows (gKc)
(12:04) in Aquarius / and (gAl)
Mo, Ma in scheme
Cancer
8 Japan 11-03-2011 9.1 Su, Ma in follows (gKc)
(11:15) Aquarius / and (gAl)
Me, Ju in scheme
Pisces

Table: Celestial body conjunction schemes for corresponding Earthquakes

Conclusions

Following are the conclusions of this study:

1. So we conclude that due to alignment of planets which follows the General Kepler
Conjunction and General Archimedes Lever scheme, there are Earthquakes of Magnitude 8-9
or 9.n (where n=0 to 9) occurrence.
2. Now in one study it was concluded that After the Solar Maxima more Earthquakes
occurred, after Solar Minima less number of Earthquakes occurred. The study further says
that the increase of earthquakes events followed the Maxima of Solar cycle, and also depends
on the tectonic plate location. The study considered Pacific, parts of Arabian and South
American regions which is seismically sensitive region. We have taken data of seismically
sensitive region with M 8-9.n (where n= 1 to 9).
Now, in many studies, it is concluded that Planetary or Celestial bodies alignment orchestrate
Solar activity or Solar Cycle. In our study, we come across one data where the (gKc) scheme
exhibiting this. (11-03-2011, Tohoku-Japan, M=9.1)
Thus we also prove statistically that the Celestial body alignments and Solar eruptions
indirect role in triggering Earthquakes.
3. Now, Moon is said to have a role in interfering in Earth's Spin as it's closer to Earth than
Sun, Whereas Sun emits Solar wind which can be or is Electromagnetic in nature. According
to one study, Solar tide is capable of causing change in Earth’s orbit, not it’s rotational
characteristic much. Only Lunar tides are important to the de-spinning of the Earth.
(Numerical models of Oceans and Oceanic Processes, International Geophysics, 2000)
Some of the most convincing evidence for links between the sunspot cycle and changes in the
Earth's rotation rate comes from the work of Robert Currie, of the NASA-Goddard
Spaceflight Centre in Greenbelt, Maryland. He used a very sophisticated computer technique
to show clearly the influence of the solar cycle on small changes in the length of the day. The
result can be partially understood if the solar cycle, by modulating the solar wind and the
interplanetary magnetic field, causes changes in the circulation of the upper atmosphere, thus
resulting in the change of spin rate of the Earth.
The Earth's rotation variations cause the earthquake triggering and the plate movement as
many observations can prove.
Dr. Satoshi Ide, a seismologist at the University of Tokyo, and his colleagues investigated
three separate earthquake records covering Japan, California and the entire globe. For the 15
days leading up to each quake, the scientists assigned a number representing the relative tidal
stress on that day, with 15 representing the highest. They found that large quakes such as
those that hit Chile and Tohoku-Oki occurred near the time of maximum tidal strain or during
new and full moons when the Sun, Moon and Earth align.
4. A study concludes that due to Solar wind bombarding Earth, there is a pressure generated
due to shock waves on Magnetosphere which the size of Magnetosphere reduces 4 times the
radii of Earth causing Earthquakes in some places. It is noted that fluctuations in geomagnetic
field is linked to solar wind gusting towards Earth.
5. A group of researchers have found a correlation between solar activity and large
Earthquakes worldwide, the researchers have proposed a model to explain this correlation
called “reverse piezoelectric effect”, where they suggest that high concentration of solar
proton density causes Mechanical stress or strain on the Earth's Crust which is filled with
abundant minerals which also includes Quartz mineral which is a Piezoelectric material and
thereby ultimately triggering Earthquakes. A study led by USGS Geophysicist Dr. Jeffrey
Love, New USGS data show how cities have higher or lower risks of blackouts during a
powerful sun storm depending on their regional Geology.
6. One Japanese researcher Dr. M. Hayakawa have found that before any major Earthquakes,
there would be a fluctuations in Electromagnetic signals in Lithosphere-Atmosphere-
Ionosphere (which he calls as LAI coupling), where the fluctuations are detected and this
further proves the role of “Astronomical phenomenon behind the cause of Earthquakes”.
Thus we conclude that though Earthquakes are Geophysical and Geological phenomenon in
nature, but there is also an indirect role of Astronomical phenomenon like Solar eruptions,
Planetary tidal tug, Gravitational pull of Sun and Moon. So we prove statistically the above
mentioned “Astronomical causes of Earthquakes”.
 References
1. Alexander N. Safronov (2022), Astronomical Triggers as a cause of strong Earthquakes,
International Journal of Geosciences
2. R. N. Ketkar, M. N. Viladkar, P. N. Agrawal (1991), Study of Co-Seismic Planetary
Conditions for Earthquake Prediction, International Conferences on Recent Advances in
Geotechnical Earthquake Engineering and Soil Dynamics
3. M. Hagen, A. Azevedo (2017), Sun-Moon-Earth Interactions, External Factors for
Earthquakes, Natural Science
4. Dr. Masashi Hayakawa (2006), Recent progress in Seismo Electromagnetics
(Electromagnetic phenomena associated with Earthquakes), The University of Electro-
Communications, Department of Electronic Engineering, Japan
5. Marilia Tavares, Anibal Azevedo (2011), Influences of solar cycles on earthquakes,
Natural Science
6. Vito Marchitelli, Paolo Harabaglia, Claudia Troise, Giuseppe De Natale (2020), On the
correlation between solar activity and large earthquakes worldwide, Nature Journal