THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY

USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT

POLICY

Required Report - public distribution

Date: 10/4/2018
GAIN Report Number: JO18017

Jordan

Grain and Feed Update 2018

Despite Economic Hardship, Jordan’s Grain Imports Hold

Largely Steady

Approved By:
Ali Abdi, Minister-Counselor

Prepared By:
Mohamed Khraishy, Agricultural Specialist and Mariano J. Beillard, Senior Regional Agricultural
Attaché

Report Highlights:
Jordan’s wheat imports in marketing year (MY) 2018/19 are forecast at 1.1 million metric tons (MMT).
Romania remains Jordan’s main wheat supplier. FAS Amman (Post) foresees potential opportunities
for imports U.S. wheat in MY 2018/19. FAS Amman forecasts Jordan’s barley consumption in MY
2018/19 at 800,000 MT, down about 12 percent from Post’s MY 2017/18 revised estimate of 910,000
metric tons. Jordan’s corn consumption in MY 2018/19 is forecast at 805,000 metric tons. Post
forecasts Jordan’s corn imports in MY 2018/19 at 800,000 MT, an amount largely unchanged from the
USDA’s MY 2017/18 number. Rice consumption in MY 2018/19 is forecast at 200,000 metric tons.
Imports of U.S.-origin rice may decrease this year, but will still account for about 50 percent of the
market.

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Executive Summary:

FAS Amman (Post) forecasts Jordan’s wheat production in marketing year (MY) 2018/19 (July-June) at
20,000 metric tons (MT). The figure is unchanged from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA)
MY 2017/18 estimate. Jordan is not a significant producer of wheat. Post forecasts Jordan’s wheat
consumption in MY 2018/19 at 1.12 million metric tons (MMT), down just under two percent from the
USDA’s MY 2017/18 number of 1.14 million metric tons. Economic hardship may however shift
consumption patterns to lower priced basic foods.

Jordan’s wheat imports in MY 2018/19 are forecast to reach 1.1 MMT, a figure in line with forecasted
consumption rates. The Black Sea region (primarily Romania) supplies Jordan. With the approval of
Jordanian banks’ registration and participation in the USDA’s Export Guarantee Program (GSM-102),
we foresees the possibility of some 100,000 MT of new U.S.-origin wheat imports in marketing year
2018/19. Thanks to the reform of the bread subsidy program earlier this year, niche demand for higher
quality U.S. wheat is a growing possibility.

FAS Amman forecasts Jordan’s barley consumption in MY 2018/19 at 800,000 MT, down about 12
percent from Post’s MY 2017/18 revised estimate of 910,000 metric tons. Sheep fodder in Jordan
largely includes barley. To a lesser extent, barley is included in dairy cattle and poultry feed rations.
Use dropped with the implementation of the 2012 animal tagging/registration system. Post forecasts
Jordan’s total imports in MY 2018/19 at 750,000 MT; the country is aligning stocks with consumption.
The Black Sea region, primarily Romania is the main barley supplier (followed by Russia and Ukraine).

Jordan’s corn production is negligible, annual production is under 10,000 metric tons. Domestic corn
production is largely for human consumption (i.e., as corn on the cob). FAS Amman forecasts Jordan’s
corn consumption in MY 2018/19 (October-September) at 805,000 MT, up slightly by some 5,000 MT
from the USDA’s MY 2017/18 estimate of 800,000 metric tons. The market is recovering from the
earlier drop in consumption resulting from the poultry sector’s correction in the wake of overexpansion
in calendar year (CY) 2013-14 (January-December). Post forecasts Jordan’s corn imports in MY
2018/19 at 800,000 MT, an amount largely unchanged from the USDA’s MY 2017/18 number.

Post is working with its interlocutors at the Ministries of Agriculture, Trade, and the Jordan Food and
Drug Authority (JFDA) to clarify grain inspection standards and unify sampling procedures at the port-
of-discharge. A new regulation is awaiting approval. The proposed procedures will minimize the risk
of rejection due to broken kernel percentage. Additionally, proposed sampling tools and methods match
those referenced by the USDA\Federal Grain Inspection Service.

With agriculture accounting for half of the water supply’s consumption, and competing with the
population’s needs, Jordan is shying away from production of water demanding rice. FAS Amman
forecast Jordan’s rice consumption in MY 2018/19 at 200,000 MT, a decrease of 20,000 MT from the
USDA official MY 2017/18 estimate of 220,000 metric tons. The drop is due to tighter economic
conditions. Post forecasts Jordan’s imports in MY 2018/19 at 200,000 MT, down nine percent from the
USDA’s MY 2017/18 number of 220,000 metric tons. Imports of U.S.-origin rice may decrease this
year, but will still account for about 50 percent of the market.

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WHEAT

PRODUCTION

FAS Amman (Post) forecasts Jordan’s wheat production in marketing year (MY) 2018/19 (July-June) at
20,000 metric tons (MT). The figure is unchanged from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA)
MY 2017/18 estimate. Jordan is not a significant producer of wheat.

CONSUMPTION

FAS Amman forecasts Jordan’s wheat consumption in MY 2018/19 at 1.12 million metric tons (MMT),
down just under two percent from the USDA MY 2017/18 number of 1.14 million metric tons.
Economic hardship may shift consumption patterns to lower priced basic foods.

Wheat consumption in previous years has experienced unprecedented growth due to the heavy influx of
refugees displaced by the civil war in neighboring Syria. Jordan counts today with a population of over
10.2 million (Central Intelligence Agency - July 2017 estimate); this estimate has been revised upwards
to reflect assumptions about the net migration rate due to the increased flow of Syrian refugees. Prior to
2012, Jordan had a population of 6.2 million. The country has also experienced an influx of Egyptian,
Yemeni, and Libyan nationals in recent years.

The Syrian conflict led to the influx of 650,000 UN-registered refugees (80 percent live in Jordan’s
urban areas). Jordan’s census puts the numbers of refugees at 1.3 million (2016). Resolution of the
Syrian and Iraqi conflicts should lead to the reopening of border crossings and export transit routes.
This will also facilitate the refugees return to their home countries.

TRADE

FAS Amman forecasts Jordan’s wheat imports in MY 2018/19 to reach 1.1 MMT, a figure in line with
forecasted consumption rates. The Black Sea region (primarily Romania) supplies Jordan. With the
approval of Jordanian banks’ registration and participation in the USDA’s Export Guarantee Program
(GSM-102), we foresees the possibility of some 100,000 MT of new U.S.-origin wheat imports in
marketing year 2018/19. Thanks to the reform of the bread subsidy program earlier this year, niche
demand for higher quality U.S. wheat is a growing possibility.

STOCKS

FAS Amman forecasts Jordan’s ending stocks in MY 2018/19 at 439,000 MT, down two percent from
Post’s MY 2017/18 revised estimate of 449,000 metric tons. Post attributes the slight downturn to a
drop in food, seed and industrial use (FSI) consumption.

Jordan’s Ministry of Industry and Trade (MIT) confirms that its wheat stocks are sufficient to last a full
year at current consumption rates. Post’s stock estimate (one-year of consumption) includes both in-
country wheat as well as contracted for supplies. We see Jordan importing 1.1 MMT of wheat; half of
this amount is already contracted for and being shipped. Regional instability challenges Jordan’s food
security; the government today banks no less than a ten-month supply of stocks. In the past, the

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government used to be comfortable maintaining a four-month supply of stocks. The private sector
currently imports wheat directly as well for milling.

The government is finalizing its silo capacity expansion project; aimed at increasing capacity by
225,000 metric tons. Construction of the final 100,000 MT of storage is underway. Expanded capacity
at Aqaba’s new port terminal will alleviate tight storage, and improve food security.

POLICY

The Ministry of Industry and Trade replaced this year, the bread subsidy program with targeted
assistance; setting new bread prices. The ministry continues to set price caps for bread, but no longer
directly subsidizes the product to bakeries (see, GAIN JORDAN No. JO18001 – Jordan Ends Bread
Subsidies, Implements USDA Style SNAP EBT Program).

Ministry sources confirm the new price structure for bread. Bread prices for small pita loaves are set at
JOD 0.40 ($0.56) per kilogram, up JOD 0.16 ($0.23) or increasing 67 percent. The price for large pita
loaves is now set at JOD 0.32 ($0.45), up JOD 0.16 ($0.23) or increasing 100 percent. The price for
traditional bread is now set at JOD 0.35 ($0.49), up JOD 0.17 ($0.24) or increasing 94 percent. The new
prices will remain in place through March 2019; Jordan has sufficient wheat (i.e., both delivered and
contracted purchases) to meet current domestic supply needs. Jordan is an insignificant producer of
wheat and depends on imports.

MARKETING

The Ministry of Industry and Trade previously sold imported wheat to local millers at a non-
commercially competitive set price. Wheat prices today are set on a moving average of the inventoried
wheat’s cost, which includes the purchase price, storage, and transportation costs. Jordanian millers sell
the flour to bakers under the Ministry’s supervision.

Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics:

Wheat 2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2019
Market Begin Year Jul 2016 Jul 2017 Jul 2018
Jordan USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post
Area Harvested 20 20 15 20 15 20
Beginning Stocks 668 668 447 500 347 449
Production 25 25 20 20 20 20
MY Imports 979 975 1030 1015 1100 1100
TY Imports 979 975 1030 1015 1100 1100
TY Imp. from U.S. 121 169 50 50 0 100
Total Supply 1672 1668 1497 1535 1467 1569
MY Exports 10 10 10 10 10 10
TY Exports 10 10 10 10 10 10
Feed and Residual 15 15 15 16 15 20
FSI Consumption 1200 1143 1125 1060 1100 1100
Total Consumption 1215 1158 1140 1076 1115 1120
Ending Stocks 447 500 347 449 342 439
Total Distribution 1672 1668 1497 1535 1467 1569
Yield 1.25 1.25 1.3333 1 1.3333 1

(1000 HA) ,(1000 MT) ,(MT/HA)

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BARLEY

PRODUCTION

Jordan’s barley production is negligible. Barley’s main use is for animal fodder.

CONSUMPTION

FAS Amman forecasts Jordan’s barley consumption in MY 2018/19 at 800,000 MT, down about 12
percent from Post’s MY 2017/18 revised estimate of 910,000 metric tons. Sheep fodder in Jordan
mainly includes barley. Dairy and poultry feed rations to a lesser extent include barley. Use dropped
with the implementation of the 2012 animal tagging/registration system. Shepherds receive subsidized
barley based on the number of tagged animals, which is restricted to ten. Farmers attempt to circumvent
the limitation by splitting up herds among family members.

TRADE

FAS Amman forecasts Jordan’s total imports in MY 2018/19 at 750,000 MT; the country is aligning
stocks with consumption. The Black Sea region, primarily Romania is the main barley supplier
(followed by Russia and Ukraine). Post does not foresee any U.S.-origin barley imports in marketing
year 2018/19. It has been two decades since the last import of U.S.-origin barley.

The government is the country’s main barley importer, and sets the domestic sell price. The price is an
average of different origins’ prices and delivery dates, plus storage and handling costs, minus the
subsidized discount (ranges $10.00 to $50.00 per metric ton). To minimize the potential for
profiteering, arbitrage may occur when significant price swings ensue. Traders will attempt to take
advantage of price swings to undercut the government’s set price.

STOCKS

FAS Amman forecasts Jordan’s barley ending stocks in MY 2018/19 at 250,000 MT, down almost 17
percent from Post’s MY 2017/18 revised estimate of 300,000 metric tons. Post does not anticipate any
major changes in the government’s policy; inventory levels will remain stable (i.e., maintain ten months
of stocks at current consumption levels). We foresee a drop in import and consumption due to lower
regional demand for Jordanian export sheep.

POLICY

Only sheep and goat farmers receive subsidized barley. The subsidy program excludes commercial
dairy cattle and poultry farms. The animal tagging/registration project has established a reliable
ruminant animal database, replacing the previous outdated animal census.

MARKETING

The Ministry of Industry and Trade solicits bids through traders that meet stipulated standards. Ministry
purchased barley is then sold at a subsidized price to shepherds.

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Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics:
Barley 2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2019
Market Begin Year Jul 2016 Jul 2017 Jul 2018
Jordan USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post
Area Harvested 25 0 25 0 25 0
Beginning Stocks 401 401 349 231 272 300
Production 30 0 20 0 20 0
MY Imports 838 750 773 979 600 750
TY Imports 759 750 773 979 600 750
TY Imp. from U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Supply 1269 1151 1142 1210 892 1050
MY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0
TY Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0
Feed and Residual 920 920 870 910 750 800
FSI Consumption 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Consumption 920 920 870 910 750 800
Ending Stocks 349 231 272 300 142 250
Total Distribution 1269 1151 1142 1210 892 1050
Yield 1.2 0 0.8 0 0.8 0

(1000 HA) ,(1000 MT) ,(MT/HA)

CORN

PRODUCTION

Jordan’s corn production is negligible, annual production is under 10,000 metric tons. Domestic corn
production is largely for human consumption (i.e., as corn on the cob).

CONSUMPTION

FAS Amman forecasts Jordan’s corn consumption in MY 2018/19 (October-September) at 805,000 MT,
up 5,000 MT from the USDA’s MY 2017/18 number of 800,000 metric tons. The market is recovering
from the earlier drop in consumption resulting from the poultry sector’s correction in the wake of
overexpansion in calendar year (CY) 2013-14 (January-December). Oversupply has led to lower prices
since marketing year 2015/16. Despite large integrators’ attempts to curb production, poultry prices
remain below production costs. The industry aims to cut production by 10-15 percent; it expects the
market to normalize in MY 2018/19 as smaller producers drop out.

TRADE

FAS Amman forecasts Jordan’s corn imports in MY 2018/19 at 800,000 MT, largely unchanged from
the USDA’s MY 2017/18 number of 800,000 metric tons. Post is working with its interlocutors at the
Ministries of Agriculture, Trade, and the Jordan Food and Drug Authority (JFDA) to clarify grain
inspection standards and unify sampling procedures at the port-of-discharge (see, GAIN JORDAN No.
JO18013 – Jordan Grain Inspection and Sampling Workshop a Success). There is a new draft
regulation; the proposed procedures will minimize the risk of rejection due to broken kernel percentage.
Additionally, proposed sampling tools and methodology align with the USDA\Federal Grain Inspection
Service’s references.

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The Jordan-U.S. Free Trade Agreement no longer provides a tariff advantage for U.S.-origin corn; all
foreign-origin corn imports are tariff-exempt today. Argentina and Brazil currently supply over 90
percent of all imports. Argentine and Brazilian corn exporters ship smaller volumes (i.e., 10,000-15,000
MT range), which often (cash-strapped) Jordanian importers prefer. FAS Amman nonetheless
anticipates that U.S.-origin corn imports may grow, reaching in MY 2018/19 some 250,000 MT if prices
are competitive and once the GSM-102 program is active.

STOCKS

Only nominal amounts of corn are stored by poultry farmers, usually just enough to meet their
immediate monthly needs. Jordan generally lacks adequate corn storage facilities. This dearth of
storage is a key reason why traders often prefer to source smaller shipments in the range of 10,000-
15,000 metric tons. New silos are being built however at the port of Aqaba (225,000 MT) and just south
of Amman (120,000 MT), which will help increase storage capacity.

POLICY

Jordan does not place restrictions on the corn trade. Specifications for corn are similar to U.S.
standards. Issues that have arisen pertain to broken kernels; consignments with breakage above 7.5
percent face rejections. Corn shipments that exceed the established maximum-residue-limit (MRL) for
aflatoxins, which is equivalent to the U.S. standard, are also subject to rejection.

MARKETING

Corn in Jordan is imported and distributed through private sector traders. Corn is usually unloaded
directly to trucks that deliver it immediately to dairy and poultry farms.

Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics:

Corn 2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2019
Market Begin Year Oct 2016 Oct 2017 Oct 2018
Jordan USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post
Area Harvested 1 1 1 1 1 1
Beginning Stocks 56 56 36 71 21 76
Production 10 10 10 10 10 10
MY Imports 829 900 800 820 800 800
TY Imports 829 900 800 820 800 800
TY Imp. from U.S. 194 173 0 200 0 250
Total Supply 895 966 846 901 831 886
MY Exports 25 60 25 20 25 20
TY Exports 25 60 25 20 25 20
Feed and Residual 824 825 800 800 800 800
FSI Consumption 10 10 0 5 0 5
Total Consumption 834 835 800 805 800 805
Ending Stocks 36 71 21 76 6 61
Total Distribution 895 966 846 901 831 886
Yield 10 10 10 10 10 10

(1000 HA) ,(1000 MT) ,(MT/HA)

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RICE, MLLED

PRODUCTION

With agriculture accounting for half of the water supply’s consumption, and competing with the
population’s needs, Jordan is shying away from production of water demanding rice. Jordan is one of
the world’s driest countries. It has one of the lowest levels of per capita water availability (150 cubic
meters (m3) per annum). The Syrian crisis has dramatically increased the country’s population (which is
on track to double by 2047), making meeting water demand even more critical. Shifting precipitation
patterns in the region are aggravating the situation where already more than 90 percent of rainfall
evaporates or runs off. Jordan is drawing groundwater at twice the rate-of-recharge by some estimates.

CONSUMPTION

FAS Amman forecast Jordan’s rice consumption in MY 2018/19 at 200,000 MT, a decrease of 20,000
MT from the USDA official MY 2017/18 estimate of 220,000. The drop is due to tighter economic
conditions. Rice is a staple of the local diet; we estimate annual consumption at about 19.5 kilograms
per person. Camolino rice (medium-grain) is preferred (and constitutes 50 percent of imports). Long-
grain white rice, basmati, and jasmine rice are also imported.

TRADE

FAS Amman forecast Jordan’s imports in MY 2018/19 at 200,000 MT, down nine percent from the
USDA MY 2017/18 number of 220,000 metric tons. The drop is due to tighter economic conditions.
Imports of U.S.-origin rice may decrease this year, but could still account for 50 percent of the market.
Although U.S. origin rice is higher-cost, market development efforts are paying dividends. Jordanians
have developed a preference for U.S. rice. Other rice suppliers are India, Thailand, and Australia. The
bulk of Asian-origin rice is lower-cost long-grain white rice. Aromatic and basmati rice are imported
but in lesser quantities. Long-grain rice’s market share is 30 percent due to lower prices.

STOCKS

There is no government policy on maintaining strategic rice stocks. Only minimal stocks exist.

POLICY

Jordan does not place restrictions on the rice trade. Specifications for rice are similar to U.S. standards.
The Jordan-U.S. Free Trade Agreement no longer provides a tariff advantage for U.S.-origin rice; all
rice imports are tariff-exempt today.

MARKETING

Rice in Jordan is imported and distributed through private sector traders. Private sector firms distribute
the rice and distribute to retailers.

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Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics:
Rice, Milled 2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2019
Market Begin Year Jan 2017 Jan 2018 Jan 2018
Jordan USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post
Area Harvested 0 0 0 0 0 0
Beginning Stocks 21 21 23 20 23 20
Milled Production 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rough Production 0 0 0 0 0 0
Milling Rate (.9999) 0 0 0 0 0 0
MY Imports 220 200 220 195 230 200
TY Imports 220 200 220 195 230 200
TY Imp. from U.S. 147 86 0 101 0 100
Total Supply 241 221 243 215 253 220
MY Exports 0 1 0 2 0 2
TY Exports 0 1 0 2 0 2
Consumption and Residual 218 200 220 193 225 200
Ending Stocks 23 20 23 20 28 18
Total Distribution 241 221 243 215 253 220
Yield (Rough) 0 0 0 0 0 0

(1000 HA) ,(1000 MT) ,(MT/HA)

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