remote sensing

Article
NDVI-Based Assessment of Land Degradation Trends in
Balochistan, Pakistan, and Analysis of the Drivers
Xiaoxin Chen 1,2,3 , Yongdong Wang 1,2,3, *, Yusen Chen 1,2,3 , Shilin Fu 1,2,3 and Na Zhou 1,2,3

1 Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
2 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
3 National Engineering Technology Research Center for Desert-Oasis Ecological Construction,
Urumqi 830011, China
* Correspondence: wangyd@ms.xjb.ac.cn; Tel.: +86-139-9915-0554

Abstract: Land degradation destroys human habitats, and vegetation is a marker reflecting land
degradation. In this article, the Balochistan Province of Pakistan, which has a fragile ecological
environment, was selected as a typical case to analyze its land degradation over 21 years. Relevant
studies that used the NDVI and remote sensing data to monitor land degradation already existed.
Based on the data product of MODIS, this study obtained the spatio-temporal trends of the normalized
difference vegetation index (NDVI) changes from 2000 to 2020 using the sen+ Mann–Kendall (MK)
test and Hurst index and analyzed the driving factors of land degradation and restoration by
employing the multiple stepwise regression method. The residual analysis method was an effective
tool for distinguishing between anthropogenic and climatic impacts, given that not all regions have a
significant correlation between the NDVI and rainfall. The main climatic drivers of the NDVI were
derived based on the Geodetector analysis and stripped of the main climatic factors by residual
analysis to explore the influence of anthropogenic factors on the NDVI. The results show the following:
(1) Balochistan is dominated by land restoration. Land restoration is mainly dominated by climate
as well as both climate and human factors, and land degradation is mainly dominated by climate
and human factors. (2) The Geodetector-based study found high correlations between the NDVI
and TMP, MAP, AET and PET, complementing most previous residual analyses that considered only
Citation: Chen, X.; Wang, Y.; Chen, Y.; precipitation and temperature. In Balochistan, TMP, AET, PET and MAP were the dominant climatic
Fu, S.; Zhou, N. NDVI-Based factors affecting the spatial distribution of the NDVI; TMP with MAP and TMP with AET were the
Assessment of Land Degradation main interactive factors in the spatial distribution of the NDVI. (3) The article quantifies the impact of
Trends in Balochistan, Pakistan, and
the anthropogenic drivers on land degradation. Human activities positively influenced the NDVI in
Analysis of the Drivers. Remote Sens.
91.02% of the area and negatively influenced it in 8.98% of the area. (4) The overall trend of the NDVI
2023, 15, 2388. https://doi.org/
was mainly stable, with stronger improvement than degradation, and showed strong persistence.
10.3390/rs15092388
The above findings enrich our understanding of the climatic impacts of land degradation and human
Academic Editors: Inge Jonckheere impacts in arid or semi-arid regions and provide a scientific basis for ecological engineering to achieve
and Sandra Eckert ecological conservation and quality development in Balochistan, Pakistan.
Received: 6 March 2023
Revised: 19 April 2023 Keywords: land degradation; Balochistan; NDVI; human activities; Geodetector
Accepted: 26 April 2023
Published: 2 May 2023

1. Introduction
Land degradation is a global development and environmental issue identified by the
Copyright: © 2023 by the authors.
United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) and the United Nations
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
(UN) [1,2]. Over the past three decades, 30% of the world’s land, including 33% of grass-
This article is an open access article
lands, 25% of croplands, and 23% of forest lands, has experienced land degradation, with
distributed under the terms and
nearly 1.5 billion people suffering from the effects, and an annual cost of approximately
conditions of the Creative Commons
Attribution (CC BY) license (https://
USD 300 billion [3]. The UNCCD stated in 2015 that the effects and progress of work
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/
toward meeting land degradation neutrality, according to the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable
4.0/). Development and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), would be monitored and

Remote Sens. 2023, 15, 2388. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs15092388 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/remotesensing

Remote Sens. 2023, 15, 2388 2 of 17

assessed [4]. Therefore, a quantitative assessment of the characteristics and trends of land
degradation and a discussion of the relationship between the driving factors of climate and
human activities and vegetation cover change has received more attention in recent years
and serves as the basis for evaluating the realization of SDG 15.3 [5,6].
The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is widely used to study the spatio-
temporal evolution trends of vegetation cover because it can eliminate most of the radiation
errors caused by instrument calibration, solar angles, terrains, cloud shadows and other
factors, giving it strong vegetation response ability [7–11]. Relevant studies show that
hydrothermal conditions and vegetation types differ in different regions. There are also
large spatial differences in vegetation changes and responses to climate change [12,13].
Surface vegetation is an important part of the terrestrial ecosystem and an important factor
affecting the quality of the ecological environment [14]. The impact of increasing human
activities on vegetation cannot be ignored [15]. Especially in the 21st century, the positive
effects of human activities, such as land use, industrial and agricultural development,
soil and water conservation, and vegetation construction on the environment, have been
particularly prominent [16–20]. Thomas et al. used vegetation index data to assess a
statistical and ecological framework for land degradation and desertification, reviewed
the development of desertification assessment techniques as a multi-temporal analysis,
and suggested future research directions [21]. Huang et al. assessed the land degradation
dynamics using a normalized index (NDVI) time series based on the Theil-Sen slope and
MK test in three northern protection forest areas and found that the NDVI in the study area
mainly showed an increasing trend [10]. Yi and Wang et al. used MODIS NDVI time-series
data to analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of vegetation in the middle reaches
of the Yangtze River from 1999 to 2015 by methods such as trend analysis and found that
the NDVI increased from 1999 to 2015 and nearly two-thirds of the vegetation showed a
significant improvement trend during this period [14]. In terms of the research methods for
determining the relationship between climate and human activities, Wessels et al. found
that the residual analysis method was effective in controlling the impact of rainfall and
evaluating land degradation caused by human activities when estimating the vegetation
yield in South Africa [22]. On the other hand, Quyet et al. used annual rainfall and
temperature time-series data as well as the stepwise trend correlation and residual trend
analysis method to distinguish regions of biomass decline caused by human activities and
climate and analyze the types of ecological degradation [23]. On this basis, they proposed
that the development of land degradation control policies should be targeted at specific
regional strategies [23]. Eckert et al. found that the MODIS NDVI satellite time-series data
can detect areas of vegetation change and identify land degradation and regeneration in
Mongolia [11]. Evans et al. distinguished between climatic- and human-induced dryland
degradation techniques using residual analysis methods based on AVHRR NDVI and
precipitation data and found that the reduction in green biomass, identified in the AVHRR
time series (precipitation-corrected), closely matched the overall picture of the overgrazed
and degraded areas identified by the Syrian Ministry of Agriculture in its field survey [24].
In order to improve our understanding of the dynamic change process of land degradation,
one effective method is to analyze the comprehensive effect of the anthropogenic factors on
land degradation by excluding the influence of climate factors, considering that climate
factors are difficult to change in a short time [19]. Through reviewing the previous literature,
it was found that the data accuracy of some studies is not high, and only considers the
correlation between the NDVI and rainfall and does not quantitatively express the driving
factors of land degradation.
Balochistan Province is the largest administrative region in Pakistan, with 43% of
the total land area of the country [25]. It has very little rainfall [26], which makes it one
of the regions vulnerable to drought, which causes the most serious land degradation.
In recent years, under the influence of climate change and human activities, the climatic
and human factors affecting the vegetation cover and ecological environment change
in Balochistan—an important hub of natural resources in Pakistan [25]—and the degree
Remote Sens. 2023, 15, 2388 3 of 17

of their impact are still lacking quantitative evidence. Therefore, based on the Sen+mk
test, stepwise multiple regression, Geodetector, residual analysis, and the Hurst index,
in this study, we clarified the spatio-temporal characteristics of the vegetation difference
normalization index (NDVI) in Balochistan Province from 2000 to 2020, and determined and
quantified the driving factors of climate and human activities and the spatial distribution
of the contributions to the NDVI change. On this basis, the future trend of regional land
degradation was predicted. This not only contributes to a comprehensive understanding
of the characteristics of Balochistan’s ecosystem evolution, but it is also important for
formulating regional ecological and environmental protection policies to serve the global
2030 Sustainable Development Goals.
The objectives of this paper are as follows:
1. To obtain the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of land degradation
and restoration in Balochistan province based on multiple regression analysis.
2. To determine the major climate factors in Balochistan using Geodetector.
3. Quantifying the impact of the anthropogenic factors on NDVI in Balochistan.
4. To explore the sustainability of future vegetation trends in Balochistan.

2. Materials and Methods

2.1. Overview of the Study Area
Balochistan province, located in southwest Pakistan, ranges from 60◦ 520 E to 70◦ 210 E
and 24◦ 510 N to 32◦ 50 N. Its districts include the Quetta, Kalat, Makran, Nasirabad, Sibi and
Zhob Districts. The landform is mainly desert; the climate is dry, and there is little rainfall.
The natural conditions have been terrible for a long time. The main geographical units of
the study area include the Sulaiman Mountains in the northeast, the Gilgit Mountains in
the central region, and the Makran Coastal Mountains and Makran Sea in the southwest
(Figure 1). The central and northeastern regions have high terrain, while the southern
region is close to the sea. Balochistan Province is geographically very important. It borders
the Sindh and Punjab provinces to the east and northeast, Iran to the west, the Arabian Sea
to the south, and Afghanistan to the north. It is the only way from East Asia to West Asia, a
trade channel for Central Asian countries and Afghanistan to carry out entrepot trade, and
Remote Sens. 2023, 15, x FOR PEER REVIEW 4 of 19
is an important node of the energy channel from the Middle East and Central Asia to East
Asia. The geographical location of the research area is shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1. Schematic diagram of the study area.

Figure 1. Schematic diagram of the study area.

2.2. Data Sources

Six types of basic data were selected in this study: average annual temperature
(TMP), actual evapotranspiration (AET), potential evapotranspiration (PET), solar
radiation (SRAD), mean annual precipitation (MAP), and the normalized difference
vegetation index (NDVI). All data were pre-processed by Google Earth Engine (GEE),
Remote Sens. 2023, 15, 2388 4 of 17

2.2. Data Sources

Six types of basic data were selected in this study: average annual temperature
(TMP), actual evapotranspiration (AET), potential evapotranspiration (PET), solar radiation
(SRAD), mean annual precipitation (MAP), and the normalized difference vegetation index
(NDVI). All data were pre-processed by Google Earth Engine (GEE), such as the resampling
and projection, and then a data analysis was carried out. The TMP, AET, PET, SRAD and
MAP were derived from the TerraClimate dataset. The MODIS MOD13A1 data product
was selected for the NDVI. The specific year of use and spatial resolution of data is shown
in Table 1. The flowchart of this article is shown in Figure 2.

Table 1. Data sources and basic characteristics.

Data Data Source Spatial Resolution Time Period

NDVI MODIS (MOD13A1) 500 m 2000–2020
SRAD TerraClimate 4638.3 m 2000–2020
PET TerraClimate 4638.3 m 2000–2020
AET TerraClimate 4638.3 m 2000–2020
TMP TerraClimate 4638.3 m 2000–2020
Remote Sens. 2023, 15, x FOR PEER REVIEW MAP TerraClimate 4638.3 m 5 of 19
2000–2020
Note: All abbreviations in this manuscript are consistent.

Flowchart
Figure2.2.Flowchart
Figure ofof study
study technique
technique chart.
chart.

2.3.Computational
2.3. Computational Methods
Methods
2.3.1. Sen+ Mann–Kendall (MK) Analysis of Trends
2.3.1. Sen+ Mann–Kendall (MK) Analysis of Trends
The trend analysis method in this paper adopts the Sen trend degree combined with
The trend analysis method in this paper adopts the Sen trend degree combined with
the Mann–Kendall trend
the Mann–Kendall trend significance
significance testtest [27,28].
[27,28].
The formula for calculating Sen trend degree
The formula for calculating Sen trend degree 𝛽 isβ is
𝑥x −
 𝑥 x 
𝛽 𝑀𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑛
β = Median 𝑗 𝑖 ∀𝑗 ∀ j𝑖 > i
j i (1) (1)
j−i
where 1 < j < i < n; when 𝛽 > 0, it means the change trend of the time-series data is rising,
where
and 1 < j𝛽< i<<0,n; itwhen
when meansβ >the
0, itchange
meanstrend
the change trendAsof 𝛽theistime-series
is falling. data is rising,
a non-normalized
and when β < 0, it means the change trend is falling. As β is a non-normalized
parameter, it can only reflect the size of the change trend of the time series itself; however, parameter, it
can only reflect the size of the change trend of the time series itself;
the significance of the change cannot be judged. Therefore, the trend significance however, the significance
test
of the change cannot be judged. Therefore,
should be combined with the Mann–Kendall test. the trend significance test should be combined
withThe
the Mann–Kendall
Mann–Kendall test test. [27,28], a commonly used time-series trend test, is a
The Mann–Kendall
nonparametric statistical test testwith
[27,28], a commonly
the advantages used
that time-series
it does trendthe
not require test, is a nonpara-
sample to
metric statistical test with the advantages that it does not require the
follow a certain distribution, is not disturbed by a few outliers and is more applicable sample to follow
to a
certain
type anddistribution,
order variables. is not disturbed by a few outliers and is more applicable to type and
order
Forvariables.
time-series data (x1, x2, …, xn), construct statistical variables S for testing:

𝑆 𝑠𝑔𝑛 𝑥 𝑥 (2)

which is
Remote Sens. 2023, 15, 2388 5 of 17

For time-series data (x1 , x2 , . . . , xn ), construct statistical variables S for testing:

n −1 n
∑ ∑


S= sgn x j − xi (2)
i =1 j = i +1

which is 


 1 i f x j − x i > 0

sgn x j − xi = 0 i f x j − xi = 0
(3)
−1 i f x j − xi < 0


S follows a normal distribution with E(s) = 0 and variance:

n(n − 1)(2n + 5) − ∑im=1 ti (ti − 1)(2ti + 5)

Var (S) = (4)
18
where m is the number of recurring datasets in the time series, and ti is the number of
repeated data in the ith set of the repeated data.
When n ≥ 10, Z is calculated as
 S −1
 √ S>0
 var(s)

Z= 0 S=0 (5)
 √S+1 S<0


var (s)

The Mann–Kendall test is usually used to determine the monotonic trends of climate
data [29]. Based on Sen’s slope and the Mann–Kendall (MK) test combined with the p-value,
it was found that the NDVI increased or decreased significantly, with p < 0.05, rejecting
the null hypothesis and indicating that there was a significant change trend in the data.
The research time series comprised 21 years. With the passage of time, using the Z-score
to perform the trend tests, the Z-score threshold for testing significance is 1.96, and the
confidence level is 95%. When β is positive, it indicates a positive trend, and when β is
negative, it indicates a negative trend. If the absolute value of Z is greater than 1.96, it
indicates that its trend significance test is passed.

2.3.2. Multiple Stepwise Regression Method

Multiple stepwise regression is a method proposed by Del Barrio et al. [30]. His ap-
proach can be used to study the drivers of land degradation and identify the areas affected
by single climatic factors, single anthropogenic factors, or both climatic and anthropogenic
factors. First, referring to Del et al. [30], this study is based on multiple regression between
the NDVI and two dependent variables: time and precipitation. The determination co-
efficient (R2 NDVI_1,2 ) was calculated, and the statistical significance was tested at the 90%
confidence level. Then, for regions with significant changes, the independent variable with
a low correlation coefficient (rNDVI_2 ) with an average annual NDVI in simple correlation
analysis, was added to the statistical Fs value. Finally, the Fs and standard values were
used to evaluate whether the addition of the determination coefficient was significant.

R2NDV I_1,2 − r2NDV I _2

Fs =   (6)
1 − R2NDV I_1,2 /(n − 3)

where n is the number of points in the regression equation. The calculated value of Fs
was compared with the value of F, which is the expected distribution of F at the threshold
α = 0.10 for 1 and n − 3 degrees of freedom (Fα = 0.1[1, n − 3]), to determine whether it
was important. When Fs > Fα = 0.1 [1, n − 3], it means that the test is significant, indicating
that the change in the annual average NDVI is influenced by both human activities and
climate change. Otherwise, individual human activities or climate change drivers were dis-
tinguished by testing the significance of their variable correlation coefficients, which were
Remote Sens. 2023, 15, 2388 6 of 17

constructed from the annual average NDVI with time and precipitation. If no significance
was found in any of the above tests, it was assumed that the NDVI was not influenced by
time or precipitation.

2.3.3. Geodetector
Geographic detectors are a group of statistical methods to detect spatial heterogeneity
and reveal the driving force behind it. Spatial heterogeneity is one of the basic characteristics
of geographical phenomena [31].
Geographic detectors include four detectors. Divergence and factor detection: detect-
ing the spatial divergence of Y and detecting how much of the spatial divergence of Y is
explained by a given factor X. Using the q-value metric [32], the expressions are:

∑hL=1 Nh o2h SSW

q = 1− 2
= 1− (7)
Nσ SST

L
SSW = ∑ Nh Oh2 , SST = Nσ2 (8)
h =1

where h = 1, . . . , L is the stratification of variable Y or factor X; Nh and N are the numbers

of cells in layer h and the whole area, respectively; o2h and σ2 are the Y-worthy variance
of layer h and the whole area, respectively. SSW and SST are the sum of the variances
within layers and the total variance of the whole area, respectively. The range of values
for q is [0, 1]; higher q-values indicate that climate factor x has a much stronger influence
on the high value of q, thus the stronger the explanatory power of climate factor x on
the NDVI spatially and vice versa [31]. In this study, a factor detector and interactive
detector were used, with the NDVI as the dependent variable and the climate factors as the
independent variables. Factor detection in the Geographic detector was used to analyze
the interpretation degree of spatial differentiation, reflected by the climate-driving factors
of the NDVI in Balochistan Province, which was measured by the q-value. The q-value
represents factor x, which explains the spatial differentiation of the 100 × q% climate factors.
For the specific process, please refer to [31]. The Geographic detectors require that the
independent variable be a categorical variable; therefore, the climate elements were divided
into 10 categories according to the natural breakpoint method, turning each factor from a
numerical variable to a categorical variable.

2.3.4. Hurst Index Analysis

The Hurst index was first proposed by the hydrologist Hurst [33] and later modified
and improved by Mandelbrot et al. [34]. It is an effective method to quantitatively describe
the long-term dependence of time-series information; see the reference for the basic princi-
ple [33,34]. Combined with the Theil–Sen trend, this paper uses the Hurst index to reflect
the sustainability characteristics of future vegetation cover.
The calculation principle is as follows:
For any positive integer τ ≥ 1, define the sequence of means {ξ (t)}:

1 τ
τ ∑ i=1
< ξ >τ = ξ (t) (τ = 1, 2, . . . , N) (9)

(1) Deviation
∑ u =1 [ ξ ( u ) − < ξ > τ ] (1  t  τ )
τ
X(t, τ ) = (10)

(2) Range
max min
R( τ ) = X(t, τ ) − X(t, τ )
1≤t≤τ 1≤t≤τ (11)
(τ = 1, 2, . . . , N)
Remote Sens. 2023, 15, 2388 7 of 17

(3) Standard deviation

1
τ 2
S(τ ) = { τ1 ∑ [ξ (t) − < ξ >τ ]2 } (12)
i =1
(τ = 1, 2, . . . , N)
Introducing the dimensionless ratio R/S, if there exists H such that R/S = (cτ)H holds,
then the Hurst phenomenon is present in {ξ (t)} and H is the Hurst index. In the double
logarithmic coordinate system [lnτ, ln(R/S)], use the least squares fit to obtain the Hurst
index [35].
The Hurst index value range [35–38]:
If 0 < H < 0.5, it indicates that the NDVI time series has anti-persistence. The past vari-
able is negatively correlated with the future trend, and the sequence has the characteristics
of mutation and jump. The closer the H value is to 0, the stronger the anti-persistence.
If H = 0.5, it indicates that the NDVI time series is an independent random series.
If 0.5 < H < 1, it indicates that the vegetation coverage time series has long-term
correlation characteristics, and thus, the process has sustainability. The closer the H value
is to 1, the stronger the sustainability.

2.3.5. Residual Analysis

Not all regional NDVIs are significantly correlated with rainfall [10]. Geographical
detectors are used to screen out the related driving influences of climate factors MAP, AET,
PET and TMP. By eliminating the influence of these factors in the NDVI long-term time
series changes, the climatic influence of the NDVI changes can be stripped away so as to
obtain the influence of human activities. Regression analyses were performed on the NDVI,
MAP, AET, PET and TMP values to calculate the difference between the predicted and real
value of the NDVI, which was used as the influence of human factors on vegetation cover
change (the residual trend method) [39]. Its expression is as follows:

NDVIpre = aAET + bPET + cMAP + dTMP + e (13)

NDVIres = NDVIreal − NDVIpre (14)

In the formula, NDVIreal is the NDVI value in a remote sensing image, and NDVIpre
is the predicted value. NDVIpre is based on the NDVI and time-series data of temperature,
precipitation and evapotranspiration, assuming human activities have no influence. The
NDVI is taken as the dependent variable, while MAP, TMP, AET and PET are taken as the
independent variables. The predicted value of the NDVI is obtained by building a multiple
linear regression model, with a, b, c, d and e as the model parameters [20]. The variation
trend of the NDVI residuals can be calculated by the formula. Over time, the areas showing
a positive trend therefore improved, and areas showing a negative trend thus degraded.

3. Results
3.1. Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Land Degradation and Restoration in Balochistan
In order to detect the temporal and spatial characteristics, in this article, we analyzed
the driving factors of land degradation and restoration based on 21 years of NDVI data in
Balochistan, referring to the classification results of the NDVI trends by Yuan et al. [40], cou-
pled with stepwise multiple regression. The percentages of climate-dominated degradation
region (CDD), human-dominated degradation region (HDD) and both factors-dominated
degradation (BDD) influence are 36.26, 3.34, and 1.56, respectively. The land restoration
area is about 1.315 × 105 km2 . The percentages of the climate-dominated restoration region
(CDR), human-dominated restoration region (HDR) and both factors-dominated restora-
tion (BDR) influence are 0.76, 0.02, and 0.08, respectively (Table 2). The land degradation
area is about 2.915 × 103 km2 . The area of land restoration is larger than the area of land
degradation in Balochistan (Figure 3).
Remote Sens. 2023, 15, 2388 8 of 17

Table 2. Spatial distribution of drivers of land degradation and restoration in Balochistan.

Slope Trend of Factor Percentage (%)

<−0.0005 CDD 0.76
<−0.0005 BDD 0.02
<−0.0005 HDD 0.08
≥0.0005 CDR 36.26
≥0.0005 BDR 3.34
≥0.0005 HDR 1.56
−0.0005–0.0005 Stable 44.19
No impact 13.79
Remote Sens. 2023, 15, x FOR PEER REVIEW 9 of 19
Note: All abbreviations in this manuscript are consistent.

Figure Spatialdistribution
Figure 3. Spatial distributionofof driving
driving factors
factors of land
of land degradation
degradation and and restoration
restoration in Balochistan.
in Balochistan.
CDD: climate-dominated
CDD: climate-dominateddegradation
degradationregion; HDD:
region; HDD:human-dominated
human-dominated degradation region;
degradation BDD: BDD:
region;
both factors-dominated degradation; CDR: climate-dominated restoration region; HDR:
both factors-dominated degradation; CDR: climate-dominated restoration region; HDR: human- human-
dominated restoration region; BDR: both factors-dominated restoration.
dominated restoration region; BDR: both factors-dominated restoration.

There
There were
weresignificant
significantspatial differences
spatial in the
differences spatial
in the distribution
spatial of the
distribution ofdrivers of of
the drivers
land degradation and restoration in Balochistan. Quetta District is mainly stable, and
land degradation and restoration in Balochistan. Quetta District is mainly stable, and its its
land restoration is mainly affected by climate. Zhob District is dominated by restoration,
land restoration is mainly affected by climate. Zhob District is dominated by restoration,
which is mainly influenced by climate. Sibi District is dominated by land restoration,
which is mainly influenced by climate. Sibi District is dominated by land restoration,
which is mainly influenced by climate. Makran District is mainly stable, which is mainly
which is mainly influenced by climate. Makran District is mainly stable, which is mainly
influenced by climate and a combination of climate and human influence. The land
influenced by climate and a combination of climate and human influence. The land
restoration in Kalat District and Nasirabad District is mainly influenced by climate.
restoration in Kalat District and Nasirabad District is mainly influenced by climate.
Table 2. Spatial distribution of drivers of land degradation and restoration in Balochistan.

Slope Trend of Factor Percentage (%)

<−0.0005 CDD 0.76
<−0.0005 BDD 0.02
<−0.0005 HDD 0.08
≥0.0005 CDR 36.26
≥0.0005 BDR 3.34
Remote Sens. 2023, 15, 2388 9 of 17

3.2. Correlation Analysis of NDVI and Climatic Drivers

3.2.1. Impact of Climatic Factors on NDVI
The spatial distribution of the NDVI was taken as the dependent variable (Y), and
the spatial distribution of the five climate-influencing factors was taken as independent
variables (X). The natural breakpoint method was applied to discretize the five influencing
factors separately. The q-statistic values between the spatial distribution of the year-by-
year average annual NDVI and the five climate factors were obtained by Geographic
detectors. The q-values were visualized on color scale plots to reflect the temporal variation
characteristics of the NDVI under the influence of multiple climatic factors.
As shown in Table 3, the differences among the q-means of the factors in the extended
time series were not significant, ranging from 0.086–0.237 for AET (0.210), MAP (0.203), PET
(0.208), SRAD (0.086) and TMP (0.237), indicating the importance of the climatic factors on
the NDVI in the long term. TMP, with the highest q-value, was the most dominant climatic
driver of NDVI variation, followed by AET, PET and MAP. SRAD had the weakest effect
on the NDVI. The temperature was the most dominant driver of the NDVI in Balochistan;
a high temperature exacerbates drought and is detrimental to plant growth, which is an
important cause of land degradation due to vegetation cover.

Table 3. Statistical q-value of climate influence factors in Balochistan, 2000–2020.

Year AET MAP PET SRAD TMP

2000 0.139 0.140 0.145 0.056 0.227
2001 0.152 0.156 0.156 0.041 0.204
2002 0.112 0.101 0.150 0.069 0.199
2003 0.255 0.227 0.184 0.060 0.226
2004 0.111 0.099 0.115 0.052 0.196
2005 0.126 0.184 0.184 0.137 0.230
2006 0.142 0.140 0.159 0.219 0.220
2007 0.182 0.170 0.172 0.130 0.165
2008 0.206 0.213 0.145 0.080 0.207
2009 0.148 0.154 0.197 0.049 0.223
2010 0.389 0.378 0.188 0.240 0.206
2011 0.224 0.177 0.210 0.196 0.191
2012 0.145 0.146 0.223 0.090 0.202
2013 0.207 0.176 0.195 0.188 0.208
2014 0.148 0.148 0.202 0.121 0.219
2015 0.257 0.238 0.208 0.126 0.207
2016 0.260 0.244 0.208 0.177 0.224
2017 0.189 0.184 0.210 0.065 0.225
2018 0.175 0.173 0.153 0.078 0.165
2019 0.109 0.117 0.214 0.106 0.195
2020 0.241 0.214 0.262 0.102 0.223
Average 0.210 0.203 0.208 0.086 0.237
Note: The p-test values of q-values for each factor 2000–2020 are less than 0.01.

In addition, it can be seen from the interaction of the climate factors (Figure 4) that the
dominant interaction force q(X1 ∩ X2) is TMP interacting with AET and MAP, which have
q-values of 0.445 and 0.455, respectively, indicating that the interaction of the annual mean
temperature with AET and MAP has the strongest effect on the NDVI.
Remote
RemoteSens. 2023,15,
Sens.2023, 15,2388
x FOR PEER REVIEW 1110ofof19
17

Figure4.
Figure 4. Interactive
Interactive effects
effects of climate factors on NDVI in Balochistan, 2000–2020.
2000–2020.

3.2.2.
3.2.2. Analysis
Analysis of of the
the Influence
Influence of of Human Factors on
Human Factors on NDVI
NDVI
By
Byeliminating
eliminating thethe influence
influence of of the NDVI long-term
the NDVI long-term trend
trend climate
climate factors,
factors, the
thechanges
changes
in land degradation caused by human activities can be identified. By
in land degradation caused by human activities can be identified. By calculating the trendcalculating the trend
change characteristics through residual analysis, we find that the anthropogenic
change characteristics through residual analysis, we find that the anthropogenic influence influence
isistwofold:
twofold:(i)(i)the
theareas
areasthatthatshow
showpositive
positivetrends
trendsover
overtime
timeareare
improved
improved states, andand
states, (ii) (ii)
the
areas that show a negative trend over time are degraded states that
the areas that show a negative trend over time are degraded states that have an increased have an increased
degree
degreeof ofvegetation
vegetation degradation.
degradation.
In
In quantifying the
quantifying the details
details of the spatial
of the spatial distribution
distribution of of the
theanthropogenic
anthropogeniccontribution
contribution
to the NDVI change, it was found that there was significant heterogeneity
to the NDVI change, it was found that there was significant heterogeneity in the trend in the trendand and
significant anthropogenic influence on the NDVI in Balochistan. In general,
significant anthropogenic influence on the NDVI in Balochistan. In general, this shows the this shows the
characteristics of local inhibition in the middle and promotion in the periphery
characteristics of local inhibition in the middle and promotion in the periphery (Figure 5). (Figure 5).
The areas where human activities positively influenced the NDVI
The areas where human activities positively influenced the NDVI accounted for 91.02%, accounted for 91.02%,
and
and thethe areas
areas where
where there
there waswas aa negative
negative influence
influence were
were about
about 8.98%
8.98% (Table
(Table 4).4). Among
Among
them, human activities in Nasirabad District showed a significant
them, human activities in Nasirabad District showed a significant positive influence positive influence on the
on
NDVI changes, while the negative influence was scattered sporadically
the NDVI changes, while the negative influence was scattered sporadically in Quetta in Quetta District,
the southern part of Kalat District and the northern part of Makran District.
District, the southern part of Kalat District and the northern part of Makran District.
Table 4. Classification of anthropogenic impact on NDVI.

Impact Effect Slope Area Proportion (%) Average

Severe >0.0120 0.0010 0.0130
Heavy 0.0070 to 0.0120 0.0640 0.0082
Positive
Medium 0.0040 to 0.0070 0.4175 0.0050
Less 0 to 0.0040 90.5416 0.0005
Less −0.0020 to 0.0040 8.7764 −0.0003
Medium −0.0040 to −0.0020 0.1488 −0.0027
Negative
Heavy −0.0160 to 0.0040 0.0506 −0.0059
Severe <−0.0160 0.0001 −0.0192
Remote Sens.
Remote 2023,
Sens. 15,15,2388
2023, x FOR PEER REVIEW 11 of 17
12 of 19

Figure Trendsand
5. Trends
Figure 5. andsignificance
significance analyses
analyses of anthropogenic
of anthropogenic impacts
impacts on NDVI.
on NDVI. NS: Negative-Severe;
NS: Negative-Severe;
NH: Negative-Heavy; NM: Negative-Medium; NL: Negative-Less; PL: Positive-Less;
NH: Negative-Heavy; NM: Negative-Medium; NL: Negative-Less; PL: Positive-Less; PM: Positive-
PM: Positive-
Medium; PH: Positive-Heavy; PS: Positive-Severe.
Medium; PH: Positive-Heavy; PS: Positive-Severe.

TableBased
4. Classification of anthropogenic
on the details impact
of the spatial on NDVI. of the Hurst index by Zhang et al. [35],
distribution
the Impact
Hurst index was classified
Effect into eight
Slopelevels. Persistence analysis of Average
Area Proportion(%) the NDVI over
21 years showed (Figure Severe 6) that the Hurst
>0.0120index ranged from 0.119 to 0.989,
0.0010 with a mean
0.0130
value of 0.51. Among Heavythe regions, 27.12% had
0.0070 to 0.0120 a Hurst index of
0.0640 less than 0.5, and 72.88%
0.0082
hadPositive
a Hurst indexMedium
of more than 0.50.0040
(Tableto5); therefore,
0.0070 the persistence
0.4175 of the NDVI
0.0050 changes
in Balochistan was greater
Less than the inverse
0 to 0.0040persistence. The Hurst
90.5416 index was graded, and
0.0005
it was statistically derived
Less that weak and less
−0.0020 to 0.0040 persistent series
8.7764 (0.35–0.65) accounted
−0.0003 for
75.11%, and their Medium
recovery series−0.0040
showed weak
to −0.0020persistence.0.1488 −0.0027
Negative
Heavy −0.0160 to 0.0040 0.0506 −0.0059
Table 5. Hurst index statistics for NDVI in Balochistan, Pakistan, 2000–2020.
Severe <−0.0160 0.0001 −0.0192
Impact Level Effect Area Proportion (%) Average
Based on the details of the spatial distribution of the Hurst index by Zhang et al. [35],
H < 0.25 Strong 0.07 0.23
the Hurst index was classified into eight levels. Persistence analysis of the NDVI over 21
0.25 ≤ H < 0.35 Stronger 1.67 0.32
years showed (Figure 6) that the Hurst index ranged from 0.119 to 0.989, with a mean
0.35 ≤ H < 0.45 Weaker 12.09 0.41
value of ≤
0.45 0.51.
H <Among
0.50 the regions, 27.12% had a Hurst index
Weak 13.30 of less than 0.5, and0.48
72.88%
had 0.50
a Hurst index
≤ H < 0.55 of more than 0.5
Weak (Table 5); therefore, the
17.00 persistence of the NDVI
0.53
changes inHBalochistan
0.55 ≤ < 0.65 was greater
Weakerthan the inverse persistence.
32.72 The Hurst index
0.60 was
graded, and
0.65 ≤ H< it 0.75
was statisticallyStronger
derived that weak and 18.65
less persistent series (0.35–0.65)
0.69
accounted
H >for
0.7575.11%, and their Strong
recovery series showed weak
4.51 persistence. 0.78
 0.25 ≤ H < 0.35 Stronger 1.67 0.32
0.35 ≤ H < 0.45 Weaker 12.09 0.41
0.45 ≤ H < 0.50 Weak 13.30 0.48
0.50 ≤ H < 0.55 Weak 17.00 0.53
0.55 ≤ H < 0.65 Weaker 32.72 0.60
Remote Sens. 2023, 15, 2388 12 of 17
0.65 ≤ H < 0.75 Stronger 18.65 0.69
H > 0.75 Strong 4.51 0.78

Figure Spatial distribution

Figure 6. Spatial distributionofofHurst
Hurstindex
index
of of NDVI
NDVI in Balochistan,
in Balochistan, 2000–2020.
2000–2020.

The
The spatial
spatialdistribution
distributionshows
showsthat thethe
that Hurst index
Hurst was was
index low inlowtheinnorth
the of Balochistan
north of
and high in the
Balochistan andeast,
highwest
in theand south
east, westofand
the province.
south of the The anti-persistence
province. sequences were
The anti-persistence
mostly
sequencesdistributed
were mostly in the eastern in
distributed part
theof Quetta
eastern partDistrict,
of QuettatheDistrict,
north-central part of Kalat
the north-central
District, the northern
part of Kalat District, part
the of Zhob District
northern part of and ZhobtheDistrict
southern andpart
the of Nasirabad
southern partDistrict,
of
Nasirabad
while District, while
the sustained the sustained
sequences sequences were
were concentrated in the concentrated
southern part in the southern
of the Kalat,part
Sibi and
of the Kalat,
Makran Sibi and Makran districts.
districts.
To explore
To explore the
the sustainability
sustainabilityofoffuture
future trends,
trends,thethe
results of the
results trend
of the analysis
trend werewere
analysis
coupled and
coupled and overlaid
overlaidwith
withthetheHurst
Hurstindex
index of of
sustainability
sustainability analysis by referring
analysis to the
by referring to the
trend classification of Yuan et al. [40]. From Table 6, it is found that the overall
trend classification of Yuan et al. [40]. From Table 6, it is found that the overall trend of the trend of
the NDVI
NDVI was was
mainlymainly stable,
stable, withwith stronger
stronger improvement
improvement thanthan degradation,
degradation, showing
showing strong
strong persistence. A total of 31.70% of the areas continued to
persistence. A total of 31.70% of the areas continued to improve, and 1.33% continued improve, and 1.33% to
continued12.64%
degrade; to degrade;
of the12.64% of the
areas will areas from
change will change from improvement
improvement to degradation,to degradation,
and 0.48% will
and 0.48% will change from degradation to improvement. Persistent
change from degradation to improvement. Persistent degradation (PD) and anti-persistent degradation (PD)
degradation (APD) showed patchy and scattered characteristics, while persistent improve-
ment (PI) and anti-persistent improvement (API) showed concentrated and contiguous
characteristics (Figure 7).

Table 6. Persistence of NDVI changes in Balochistan, 2000–2020.

Slope Effect Area Proportion (%) Average

≤−0.0005 >0.5 PD 1.33
≤−0.0005 <0.5 APD 0.48
−0.0005–0.0005 >0.5 or <0.5 Stable 53.85
≥0.0005 <0.5 API 12.64
≥0.0005 >0.5 PI 31.70
 The Makran, Kalat, Zhob, Sibi and Nasirabad districts are mainly sustainable and
dominated by continuous improvement, and the vegetation is likely to continue to
improve in the future. The lowest percentage of continuous improvement was in Quetta
Remote Sens. 2023, 15, 2388 District, where a larger proportion of anti-sustainable improvement was accompanied by
13 of 17
the occurrence of continuous degradation and where the vegetation is likely to be
degraded in the future.

Figure 7.7.Hurst
Figure Hurstindex
indexsustainability
sustainabilitytrends
trendsof of
NDVI
NDVIin Balochistan, 2000–2020.
in Balochistan, PD: PD:
2000–2020. persistent degrada-
persistent
degradation;
tion; APD: anti-persistent
APD: anti-persistent degradation;
degradation; PI: persistent
PI: persistent improvement;
improvement; API: anti-persistent
API: anti-persistent improvement.
improvement.
The Makran, Kalat, Zhob, Sibi and Nasirabad districts are mainly sustainable and
4. Discussion
dominated by continuous improvement, and the vegetation is likely to continue to improve
in theThis
future. Theanalyzes
article lowest percentage
the driversofofcontinuous improvement
land degradation was in Quetta
and restoration based District,
on
where a larger
stepwise proportion
multiple of using
regression anti-sustainable
climatic andimprovement
anthropogenic was accompanied
factors, by the oc-
and significant
differences
currence of were found in
continuous the spatial distribution
degradation of the
and where the drivers ofisland
vegetation degradation
likely and in
to be degraded
the future.

4. Discussion
This article analyzes the drivers of land degradation and restoration based on stepwise
multiple regression using climatic and anthropogenic factors, and significant differences
were found in the spatial distribution of the drivers of land degradation and restoration in
Balochistan. Balochistan is located in an arid and semi-arid region with significant climate
heterogeneity, with low precipitation and high temperature, which are not conducive to
vegetation activity and result in severe forms of land degradation. With the increased
elevation in the central and northeastern parts of the province, there is increased rainfall
and decreased temperature, moderating the severe climatic constraints, and thus it is
important to conduct land degradation studies based on the NDVI changes.
Balochistan is located in the southwestern part of Pakistan, and its southern region
has a tropical climate with higher temperatures than other regions outside Pakistan. The
administrative areas are mainly located in the arid and semi-arid zones and locally in
the extreme arid zone. December to March (winter) and the end of June to the end of
September(monsoon season) are the two major rainy seasons in Balochistan. The MAP
in Balochistan ranged from 54.78 to 329.67 mm during 2000–2020, with a general trend of
decreasing precipitation from northeast to west and southwest. The climate of Balochistan
is dry, and rainfall is scarce and unevenly distributed, making the land susceptible to
erosion [26]. There is a large regional temperature difference, with the TMP decreasing
from higher than 29 ◦ C in the southwest to lower than 21 ◦ C in the northeast. The rate of
Remote Sens. 2023, 15, 2388 14 of 17

the annual mean temperature change in Pakistan shows a spatially decreasing trend from
the southwest to the north and east, with an overall fluctuating upward trend from 1979 to
2018, as well as significant warming in most regions, except the northern mountains [41].
As a result, vegetation growth in Balochistan is limited by the lack of moisture, while
the increased temperature causes enhanced evapotranspiration and intensifies drought
trends [42,43]. Ashraf reported that due to the high variability in precipitation, the eastern-
central, southwestern, southern and some isolated southern coastal areas of Balochistan
would be more vulnerable to severe droughts in the future, especially during winter and
alternating wet and dry periods [44]. This is the main reason for the changes in land
degradation due to the NDVI changes in Balochistan.
Relevant studies found that land degradation reflected by vegetation was a commonly
used practice. Barjeece et al. [45] found that the vegetation conditions had improved, with
significant vegetation recovery, with a similar trend for the future in Sindh, Pakistan, from
2000 to 2017. Balochistan Province borders Sindh Province to the east. The topography
of Balochistan is diverse, and there are significant differences in the natural environment,
climatic conditions, socioeconomic development and the intensity and manner of ecological
engineering. Therefore, the direction and intensity of the impact of human activities on
the NDVI changes show significant spatial and temporal differences. The results of this
study show that changes in the NDVI caused by human activities are mainly positive,
accompanied by fluctuation and increasing influence. The comparison revealed a strong
consistency between the trends of the NDVI in Balochistan under the influence of human
activities (Figure 5) and the trends of land degradation and restoration based on the
NDVI (Figure 3). This indicates that the growth of the NDVI is not entirely dependent on
natural conditions, while various human activities play an important role in the growth
of vegetation in Balochistan [35]. Quetta, in Quetta District, is the capital of Balochistan.
Taking Quetta City as an example for illustration, first, the average NDVI values from
2000 to 2020 were calculated. Then, eight radiating buffer zones at 5 km intervals were
drawn, with the city as the center of the circle for quantitative analysis of the impact of
urban expansion on vegetation change (Figure 8). Finally, the average NDVI values within
the rings were counted. The results show that the overall vegetation cover in the urban
periphery had a decreasing trend, and the direction of urban expansion was mainly to the16
Remote Sens. 2023, 15, x FOR PEER REVIEW of 19
north and west, indicating that urban expansion was another driving factor of a decreased
NDVI due to anthropogenic activities.

Figure 8. Influence
Figure of human activities
8. Influence of humanonactivities
vegetation coverage. coverage.
on vegetation

Makran, Kalat, Zhob, Sibi and Nasirabad districts are mainly sustainable, with
persistent improvement as the norm, and the vegetation is likely to continue to improve
in the future. Quetta, as the capital of Balochistan, has the lowest percentage of persistent
improvement due to urbanization, population development, economic structure and
mining exploitation. In contrast, Quetta District has a higher percentage of anti-persistent
Remote Sens. 2023, 15, 2388 15 of 17

Makran, Kalat, Zhob, Sibi and Nasirabad districts are mainly sustainable, with per-
sistent improvement as the norm, and the vegetation is likely to continue to improve in
the future. Quetta, as the capital of Balochistan, has the lowest percentage of persistent
improvement due to urbanization, population development, economic structure and min-
ing exploitation. In contrast, Quetta District has a higher percentage of anti-persistent
improvement (Table 7), accompanied by persistent degradation, which may continue to
degrade vegetation in the future.

Table 7. The persistence of NDVI changes for special districts in Balochistan.

District PD APD Stable API PI

Zhob 0.41% 0.17% 11.06% 33.27% 55.08%
Sibi 0.26% 0.10% 11.30% 9.19% 79.16%
Quetta 0.61% 0.42% 73.57% 16.04% 9.36%
Nasirabad 5.62% 2.95% 24.50% 21.82% 45.11%
Kalat 1.55% 0.40% 63.35% 6.56% 28.14%
Makran 1.56% 0.38% 75.40% 4.47% 18.19%

5. Conclusions
In this article, we found that not only were precipitation and the NDVI significant but
evapotranspiration (AEP and PET), MAP and TMP were also significant. The discoveries
and limitations of this article are shown below.
1. In terms of restoration and degradation, land restoration in Balochistan is mainly
influenced by climate and combined anthropogenic and climate factors, with shares of
36.26 and 3.34%, respectively, while land degradation is mainly influenced by climate
and anthropogenic factors, with shares of 0.76 and 0.08%, respectively.
2. TMP, AET, PET and MAP are the dominant climatic factors affecting the spatial
distribution of the NDVI; TMP with MAP and TMP with AET are the main interactive
factors affecting the spatial distribution of the NDVI.
3. The trend of the anthropogenic impact on the NDVI has obvious spatial heterogeneity,
which generally shows the characteristics of intermediate local inhibition and peripheral
promotion. In Balochistan, 91.02% of the area showed a positive influence of human
activities on the NDVI, while about 8.98% of the area showed a negative influence.
4. The continuity study shows that 31.70% of the areas in Balochistan persistently im-
proved, while 1.33% persistently degraded; 12.64% of the areas will change from
improvement to degradation, while 0.48% will change from degradation to improve-
ment. Persistent degradation and anti-persistent degradation appear to be patchy and
scattered, while persistent improvement and anti-persistent improvement appear to
be concentrated and contiguous. Balochistan is in an arid zone comprising mostly
desert vegetation; hence, future changes in vegetation cover and land degradation are
still a concern.
The limitation is using inter-annual data for the analysis, which inevitably is subject
to error. A more detailed analysis will take into account seasonal factors in the future.
The influence of climate factors on the NDVI had a certain lag [46,47], which may bring
certain errors to the results of residual analysis. The trend towards degradation requires
closer examination to determine its causes. Future studies should consider field visits (e.g.,
vegetation species’ changes and soil erosion) to validate the remote sensing data. At the
same time, more accurate remote sensing data is necessary to discuss the impact of the
NDVI on land degradation in the future.
Remote Sens. 2023, 15, 2388 16 of 17

Author Contributions: X.C. was the main contributor to this work; X.C.: writing—original draft,
conceptualization, supervision and formal analysis; Y.W.: funding acquisition; Y.C.: investigation;
S.F.: software; Y.W. and N.Z.: writing—review and editing. All authors commented on the pre-
vious versions of the manuscript. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of
the manuscript.
Funding: This research was funded by the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Regional Collabora-
tive Innovation Project: Development and demonstration of green land rehabilitation technology in
Gwadar Port of Pakistan (No. 2021E01021) and The Key Technical Talent Project of Chinese Academy
of Sciences (Research on desertification technology along the “Belt and Road”).
Data Availability Statement: The meteorological data were obtained from the Terra Climate dataset,
published by the University of Iowa (https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2017.191, accessed on 8 July
2022), which includes climate data, such as Srad, PET, AET, MAP and TMP. NDVI data come from
the USGS official website (https://lpdaac.usgs.gov/products/mod13a1v006/, accessed on 8 July
2022). Other relevant data are listed in Table 1.
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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