Economics
Economics
Economics
India's Economic
Journey
Progress, Challenges, and the Path Forward
INTRODUCTION
WHAT IS TRANSITION ECONOMY?
A transition economy refers to a nation that is shifting from a centrally
planned economy to a more market-oriented economic system. This
transformation typically involves moving away from government control over
production, distribution, and pricing of goods and services, allowing for
increased private enterprise, competition, and market mechanisms.
INDIA’S CURRENT ECONOMIC
STRUCTURE
ANALYZING THE GROWTH AND CHALLENGES:
India's current economic structure is characterized by a mixed economy, which combines elements of
both capitalism and socialism. The economy is characterized by a strong private sector that
contributes significantly to growth and innovation, alongside a public sector that includes
government-owned enterprises and services.
Key Features:
1. Agriculture: A significant portion of the population is engaged in agriculture, which still plays a
vital role in the economy, providing employment and food security.
2. Industry: India has a diverse industrial base, including manufacturing, textiles, and technology.
The government is promoting initiatives like "Make in India" to boost manufacturing and attract
foreign investment.
3.Services: The services sector is the largest contributor
to India's GDP, encompassing IT, telecommunications,
finance, and hospitality. India is known globally for its IT
services and business process outsourcing.
GDP Growth:
-India is projected to maintain its position as the fastest-growing major economy with a GDP growth
of 6.8% in fiscal 2025. The economy is expected to cross $5 trillion by 2025 and approach $7 trillion
by 2031, driven by robust consumption, investments, and private sector capital expenditures.
Sectoral Growth:
-Industry: The industrial sector grew by 9.5% in 2023-24, with electronics manufacturing seeing
notable expansion. Pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and automobiles have also gained prominence.
-Services: The services sector, constituting 55% of the economy, continues to thrive with growing
demand for education, healthcare, and finance. AI-driven transformations are influencing future
business services.
ECONOMIC PROGRESS OF INDIA
Exports and Trade: Exports, particularly services,
played a key role in the economic recovery post-
COVID, with projections to reach $1 trillion by 2030.
However, global economic slowdowns may affect this
momentum.
Consumer Market Growth: India is set to become a Manufacturing Hub: Many government initiatives aims to
leading global consumer market, opening opportunities position India as a global manufacturing hub by
in retail, automotive, and real estate. incentivizing local and foreign investment, reducing
import dependency, and boosting exports.
Urbanization: Rapid urbanization drives consumption,
improves infrastructure, and supports smart city Geopolitical Influence: India's strategic positioning
development, fueling economic growth. enhances its role in global trade routes and supply
chains, bridging the East and West.
Reliance Jio: Disrupted telecom by offering affordable
internet, driving a digital revolution in e-commerce, 'Make in India' Initiative: Launched in 2014 to establish
entertainment, and fintech. India as a global manufacturing hub, attracting
companies like Apple, Samsung, etc.
E-commerce Growth: Amazon India and Flipkart saw
sales surges, with e-commerce revenue set to hit $100 Strategic Trade Agreements strengthened ties with the
billion by 2025, driven by a growing middle class and US, Japan, and ASEAN, with the India-Japan CEPA
better internet access. boosting Japanese investments in infrastructure and
technology.
01. 02.
INFRASTRUCTURE
INCOME INEQUALITY
GAPS
Challenges and
Risks to
Economic
03. Growth 04.
ENVIRONMENTAL BUREAUCRACY AND
SUSTAINABILITY REGULATORY
HURDLES
01. INCOME INEQUALITY
02. INFRASTRUCTURE
GAPS
Significant disparities hinder economic
progress, limiting access to education
and healthcare for lower-income groups, Inadequate Infrastructure: India still
which reduces productivity and faces issues in transportation,
participation. energy, and urban facilities, leading
to inefficiencies in logistics and
Urban vs. Rural Divide: Rapid growth in reduced competitiveness.
cities like Bengaluru and Delhi contrasts
with lower income and access to services Logistics Challenges: Poor roads,
in rural areas, leading to potential social ports, and railways hamper economic
unrest and economic imbalance. growth, as highlighted by the World
Bank's Logistics Performance Index.
Unemployment Issues: Despite growth,
India faces unemployment and Power Supply Issues: Frequent
underemployment, with the top 10% outages and inconsistent electricity
holding 57% of national income, in rural areas disrupt business
highlighting the need for targeted rural operations. Initiatives like the
development and social welfare Saubhagya scheme need faster
programs. implementation to meet industrial
demand.
03. ENVIRONMENTAL
SUSTAINABILITY
04. INFRASTRUCTURE
GAPS
Environmental Degradation: Rapid
industrialization and urbanization
Regulatory Challenges: Complex
have harmed public health and quality
regulations and bureaucratic red tape
of life, highlighting the need to
deter investment and slow economic
balance economic growth with
reforms, complicating business
sustainability.
navigation.
Key reforms, such as the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and the
Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC), improved business
efficiency. GST simplified the taxation system by unifying multiple
state and central taxes, reducing the cascading effect of taxes, and
promoting smoother interstate trade. IBC, introduced in 2016,
created a systematic framework to resolve insolvency in a timely
manner, improving credit recovery and reducing the stress in the
banking sector.
India significantly increased its foreign exchange reserves, which contributed to greater
economic stability and made the country more resilient to external shocks, such as fluctuations in
oil prices or global financial crises.
6. Collaborative Federalism
The central government worked closely with state governments to ensure regional development.
The emphasis was placed on addressing regional disparities by encouraging state-level reforms,
fostering competition between states through rankings like the Ease of Doing Business, and
distributing resources efficiently.
7. Global Integration
India increased its global economic integration through trade agreements, partnerships, and by
attracting foreign direct investment (FDI). The government also focused on increasing India’s
share in global value chains, with particular attention to the technology and pharmaceutical
sectors.
8. Sustainability and Green Initiatives
9.Technological Advancements
Major accomplishments like hosting the G20, becoming the first country to land a rocket near
the Moon’s south pole, and fostering dozens of unicorn companies indicate that India is
positioning itself as a global player.
India’s large and growing middle class, bolstered by rising stock markets, contributes to
consumer spending, which fuels further economic growth.
2. Digital Revolution and Financial Inclusion:
The Indian government has implemented various reforms, such as the Goods and Services Tax
(GST), to simplify the tax structure and improve business ease. Land and labor reforms could
further unlock growth potential.
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): India is one of the top destinations for FDI, especially in sectors
like technology, manufacturing, and energy. Strong FDI inflows can fuel long-term growth by
providing capital and expertise.
4. Infrastructure Development:
Massive infrastructure projects, such as the construction of highways, airports, and metros, signal
a long-term commitment to modernizing the country’s infrastructure. These investments are
expected to yield long-term dividends, attracting more foreign investment and boosting domestic
production capacity.
5. Potential to Mirror China’s Growth Path:
While India is making significant strides, the growth has not been
inclusive. The economic gains are mostly benefiting the wealthy
and urban middle class, while large portions of the population,
especially in rural areas, are still struggling.
While India is improving its physical infrastructure, its human capital is lagging. Education and
healthcare remain underfunded, and COVID-19 further exacerbated the situation. Poor learning
outcomes among children and a lack of investment in building future-ready human capital (critical in an
AI-driven world) could be a long-term stumbling block for sustainable growth.
India’s ability to compete on a global scale, particularly in tech, innovation, and advanced manufacturing,
depends on how well it can develop and educate its younger generations.
Private investment as a proportion of GDP has decreased significantly, from 27.5% in 2007-08 to 19.6%
in 2020-21, indicating that the private sector is still wary of committing to India’s growth story.
Consumer spending, which is a key driver of growth, has also been sluggish, growing at the slowest rate
in 20 years. Household debt is at an all-time high, and savings rates are at their lowest. This signals that
much of India’s population is feeling financially strained, limiting their ability to contribute to economic
growth through spending.
5. Environmental Challenges
India faces significant environmental challenges, including air pollution, water scarcity, and vulnerability to
climate change. Environmental degradation could hurt agricultural productivity and public health, reducing
economic output.
India’s reliance on fossil fuels, particularly imported oil, makes it vulnerable to price fluctuations and could
hinder long-term sustainable growth unless renewable energy initiatives are accelerated.
1) Taxation
2) Employment
3) Exports
Introduce higher taxes on luxury goods, high-end services, and non-essential imports, while
keeping essentials (food, medicines) taxed at lower rates
India has a small income tax base (about 5% of the population), increasing the burden on limited
taxpayers.
A consumption tax-based model/economy increases the bracket of tax payers according to what
they consume, thus broadening the tax base
Implementation:
Gradual shift in income tax relief for low and middle-income earners, reducing their direct tax
burdens
5% Increase in Consumption based tax on Luxury goods (moderate to increase revenue without
being overly burdensome on consumers)
5% Reduction in Income Tax for below the 15 Lakh earning bracket Per Annum. (significant enough
to increase disposable income, and not so large to cause a drastic drop in overall tax revenue)
Benefits :
5-6% of the population pay income tax, placing a disproportionate burden on a small number of
individuals.
Consumption based Tax will capture tax revenue from a broader section, including informal
economy who do not earn taxable incomes
The burden falls on Middle/high income earners, leaving a large portion of the population
Lowering income Tax, increases Disposable income, leading to greater economic growth
3. Reduce Evasion and Infirmity
4. Increased Fairness
Stimulating Domestic Demand, thus, capturing more revenue from high spenders while
stimulating overall demand among lower income groups.
How It Works?
The government will establish a fund to create innovation hubs across key districts, focusing on
high-potential export products.
Each hub will specialize in a specific sector (e.g., textiles, electronics, organic products, artisanal
crafts), allowing SMEs to tap into specialized knowledge and resources tailored to their export
needs.
The hubs will provide:
R&D Support: Access to technical expertise and resources for product innovation.
Market Studies: Research to identify potential international markets and trends.
Logistical Assistance: Guidance on supply chain management and export procedures.
Financial Incentives/Grants:
To stimulate growth and innovation, the policy will include various financial grants:
Direct Financial Subsidies: For example, if a company achieves a 10% increase in exports, it will
receive a 5% subsidy on the additional export revenue.
R&D Grants: Financial support for SMEs that engage in research and development activities,
potentially covering up to 30% of R&D costs.
Matching Grants: For every rupee invested by private sector exporters, the government could
match it with an equal amount, incentivizing collaboration.
Targeted Export Growth Grants:
The government will offer grants to businesses that demonstrate the capacity to innovate and
find new markets, especially targeting underexplored regions like Africa, South America, and
Central Asia. For example, a company successfully entering a new market could receive a grant
equal to 20% of the new revenue generated from that market.
Benefits:
Fosters Innovation: Provides resources and expertise to help SMEs create competitive products.
Diversifies Exports: Focuses on niche markets, reducing dependence on traditional exports.
Strengthens Local Economies: Supports regional industries, promoting development and job
creation.
Enhances Competitiveness: Equips SMEs to compete globally, driving economic growth.
Conclusion: This export policy uniquely targets small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and
emphasizes innovation in niche markets. Unlike existing policies focused on traditional exports, it
promotes diversification and equips SMEs with specialized hubs for R&D, market insights, and
logistical support. By fostering innovation and enhancing regional development, this policy aims to
boost export growth and strengthen India’s competitiveness in the global market.
SKILL BASED EMPLOYMENT
QUOTA AND CREDIT SYSTEM
Incentivizes businesses to hire individuals based on their skill sets and qualifications. Companies
would receive credits for employing degree-holders and certified professionals, especially in sectors
with significant employment gaps (IT, Engineering, healthcare)
Companies are given credits for hiring individuals with relevant qualifications that match industry
demands
The higher the number of degrees or skills an employee possesses, the more credits the company
earns. This helps companies favor employees who are not only degree-holders but also multi-
skilled
Financial Incentives for Hiring: tax deductions or credits, reducing their financial burden.
Rewarding Skill Development: Companies can further invest in upskilling their employees,
knowing they will be rewarded through tax benefits and credits. This encourages continuous
professional development, improving overall productivity and innovation.
SKILL BASED EMPLOYMENT
QUOTA AND CREDIT SYSTEM
Implementation:
Establishing a credit system : Framework to track and manage credits (online platform)
Cross Industry Trading :
-Allowing businesses to trade credits across industries
-Fosters collaboration and investment in training programs
-For instance, companies that have exceeded the hiring quota in a sector, can sell their credits to
another and offer to assist with training programs for current employees.
Benefits:
Aligning skills with market needs:
- Enhanced Workforce Competitiveness, directly addresses skill gaps in high-demand sectors like IT,
engineering, and healthcare. Companies will prioritize employees whose qualifications match current
market demands, creating a more competitive and skilled workforce.
-This leads to better alignment between industry needs and the skills available in the market.
Tax Benefits for companies
-Financial Incentives for Hiring: tax deductions or credits, reducing their financial burden
.
-Rewarding Skill Development: Companies can further invest in upskilling their employees,
knowing they will be rewarded through tax benefits and credits. This encourages
continuous professional development, improving overall productivity and innovation.