Translation’s Final Exam

Zakaria Muttaqin Aditama

17/2A BIKBP

Part of China's economic miracle was a mirage. Reality check is next.

BEIJING, Sept 4 (Reuters) - Chinese President Xi Jinping's first major reform plans a
decade ago were also his boldest, envisaging a transition to a Western-style free market
economy driven by services and consumption by 2020.

The 60-point agenda was meant to fix an obsolete growth model better suited to less
developed countries - however, most of those reforms have gone nowhere leaving the
economy largely reliant on older policies that have only added to China's massive debt
pile and industrial overcapacity.The failure to restructure the world's second-largest
economy has raised critical questions about what comes next for China.

While many analysts see a slow drift towards Japan-style stagnation as the most likely
outcome, there is also the prospect of a more severe crunch.

"Things always fail slowly until they suddenly break," said William Hurst, Chong Hua
Professor of Chinese Development at University of Cambridge.

"There is a significant risk in the short term of financial crisis or other degree of
economic crisis that would carry very substantial social and political costs for the
Chinese government. Eventually there's going to have to be a reckoning."China came out
of its Maoist planned economy in the 1980s as a largely rural society, badly in need of
factories and infrastructure.

By the time the global financial crisis hit in 2008-09, it had already met most of its
investment needs for its level of development, economists say.

Since then, the economy quadrupled in nominal terms while overall debt expanded nine
times. To keep growth high, China in the 2010s doubled down on infrastructure and
property investment, at the expense of household consumption.That has kept consumer
demand weaker as a portion of GDP than in most other countries and concentrated job
creation in the construction and industrial sectors, careers increasingly spurned by young
university graduates.
The policy focus also bloated China's property sector to a quarter of economic activity
and made local governments so reliant on debt that many now struggle to refinance.

The pandemic, a demographic downturn and geopolitical tensions have exacerbated all
these problems to the point that the economy has found it hard to recover this year even
as China reopened."We're at a moment when we are seeing some structural shifts, but we
should have seen these coming," said Max Zenglein, chief economist at MERICS, a
China studies institute.

"We're just beginning to be confronted with the reality. We're in untested territory."

The end of China's economic boom will likely hurt commodity exporters and export
disinflation around the world. At home, it will threaten living standards for millions of
unemployed graduates and many whose wealth is tied up in property, posing social
stability risks.

CRISIS VS STAGNATION
Aside from short-term solutions, which would likely only perpetuate debt-fueled
investment, economists see three options for China.

One is a swift, painful crisis that writes off debt, curbs excess industrial capacity and
deflates the property bubble. Another is a decades-long process in which China winds
down these excesses gradually at the expense of growth. The third is switching to a
consumer-led model with structural reforms that cause some near-term pain but help it re-
emerge faster and stronger.A crisis could unfold if the massive property market collapses
in an uncontrolled way, dragging the financial sector with it.

The other high-stress point is local government debt, estimated by the International
Monetary Fund at $9 trillion. China promised in July to come up with a "basket of
measures" to address municipal debt risks, without detailing.

Logan Wright, a partner at Rhodium Group, says Beijing has to decide which portion of
that debt to rescue, as the amount is too large to provide full guarantees of repayment,
which the market currently regards as implicit.

"Crisis is going to occur in China when government credibility falters," he said.

"When all of a sudden funding is cut off for the remaining investments that seem subject
to market risk, that's a huge moment of uncertainty in China's financial markets."

But given state control of many developers and banks and a tight capital account that
limits outflows into assets abroad, that is a low risk scenario, many economists say.
 Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, expects there would be
plenty of buyers if Beijing consolidates debt given limited investment alternatives.

"I am more in the slow growth camp," she said. "The more debt is piled up for projects
that are not productive, the lower the return on assets, particularly public investment, and
that really means that China cannot grow its way out."

Avoiding a crisis by extending the adjustment period, however, has its own stability risks
with youth unemployment topping 21% and around 70% of household wealth invested in
property.

"One of China's biggest success stories, building a strong middle class, is also becoming
its biggest vulnerability," said MERICS' Zenglein. "If you look at it from the perspective
of a younger person, you are now at risk of being the first post-reform generation whose
economic wellbeing might hit a wall. If the message is tighten up your belts and roll up
your sleeves, that's going to be kind of a hard sell.

"REFORMS, THIS TIME?

The third path, actively switching to a new model, is considered very unlikely, based on
what happened to Xi's 60-point programme.

Those plans have barely been mentioned since 2015 when a capital outflows scare sent
stocks and the yuan tumbling and engendered an official aversion to potentially
disruptive reforms, analysts say.

China has since backed away from major financial market liberalisation while plans to
rein in state behemoths and introduce universal social welfare never quite materialised.

"Right now is a time in which there's a potential for the train to change direction to a new
model, and I think there's appetite to do that," said Hurst.

"But at the same time there's a great fear of the short-term political and social risk,
especially of provoking an economic crisis."

Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/part-chinas-economic-miracle-was-mirage-reality-
check-is-next-2023-09-03/
A. 1. The type of text is a news article or report. The purpose of the text is to provide an
analysis of the current economic situation in China and discuss the potential challenges
and options for the country's future economic reforms. It highlights the failure of
previous reform plans, the reliance on older policies, the risks of financial crisis or
stagnation, and the need for structural reforms to transition to a consumer-led model.

2. The target text should aim to convey the same information, analysis, and
arguments to the intended audience. It should maintain an informative tone, accurately
translating the content while adapting cultural references and linguistic nuances as
needed for the target readership.

3. Communicative Translation.

4. The dominant meaning in the text revolves around the challenges and issues faced
by China's economy, particularly related to its growth model, debt, and industrial
overcapacity.

5. The style of the text is formal, informative, analytical, and objective. It aims to
convey information, analysis, and arguments in a professional manner, catering to readers
who expect a factual and unbiased presentation of the economic situation in China.

6.Translation Principles:
1. Faithfulness to the source text
2. Effective communication in the target language
3. Adaptation to the target audience's needs

Translation Methods:
1. Semantic Translation
2. Adaptation
3. Communicative Translation
4. Textual Equivalence

Translation Strategies:
- Semantic Translation:
- Focus on conveying the meaning accurately
- Use equivalent words and expressions in the target language

- Adaptation:
- Modify cultural references, idiomatic expressions, or examples
- Ensure suitability and comprehensibility for the target audience

- Communicative Translation:
- Prioritize effective communication of main ideas and intended message
 - Rephrase or restructure sentences for clarity and readability

- Textual Equivalence:
- Replicate stylistic features, tone, and register of the source text
- Maintain the same level of formality and writing style

B.
Sebagian dari keajaiban ekonomi China ternyata hanyalah ilusi. Saat ini, saatnya untuk
melakukan pemeriksaan realitas.

BEIJING, 4 September (Reuters) - Rencana reformasi besar pertama Presiden China Xi Jinping
sepuluh tahun yang lalu juga merupakan yang paling berani, yang memperkirakan transisi ke
ekonomi pasar bebas gaya Barat yang didorong oleh sektor jasa dan konsumsi pada tahun 2020.
Agenda 60 poin tersebut dimaksudkan untuk memperbaiki model pertumbuhan usang yang lebih
cocok untuk negara-negara yang kurang berkembang - namun, sebagian besar reformasi tersebut
tidak menghasilkan apa-apa, dan ekonomi China masih sangat bergantung pada kebijakan lama
yang hanya menambah tumpukan utang dan kelebihan kapasitas industri China. Kegagalan untuk
mengubah struktur ekonomi negara kedua terbesar di dunia ini telah menimbulkan pertanyaan
kritis tentang apa yang akan terjadi selanjutnya bagi China. Meskipun banyak analis
memperkirakan kemungkinan pertumbuhan yang melambat seperti stagnasi Jepang sebagai hasil
yang paling mungkin, ada juga kemungkinan terjadinya krisis yang lebih parah. "Hal-hal selalu
gagal secara perlahan sampai tiba-tiba rusak," kata William Hurst, Chong Hua Professor of
Chinese Development di University of Cambridge. "Ada risiko signifikan dalam jangka pendek
terjadi krisis keuangan atau krisis ekonomi lainnya yang akan menimbulkan biaya sosial dan
politik yang sangat besar bagi pemerintah China. Pada akhirnya, akan ada saat penyelesaian yang
harus dilakukan." China keluar dari ekonomi terencana versi Mao pada tahun 1980-an sebagai
masyarakat yang sebagian besar masih pedesaan, yang sangat membutuhkan pabrik dan
infrastruktur. Pada saat krisis keuangan global melanda pada tahun 2008-2009, China telah
memenuhi sebagian besar kebutuhan investasinya untuk tingkat perkembangannya, demikian
menurut para ekonom. Sejak saat itu, ekonomi China meningkat empat kali lipat dalam nilai
nominal sementara utang secara keseluruhan meningkat sembilan kali lipat. Untuk menjaga
pertumbuhan yang tinggi, China pada tahun 2010-an memperkuat investasi infrastruktur dan
properti, dengan mengorbankan konsumsi rumah tangga. Hal ini menyebabkan permintaan
konsumen tetap lebih rendah sebagai bagian dari PDB dibandingkan dengan kebanyakan negara
lain dan menciptakan lapangan kerja yang terkonsentrasi di sektor konstruksi dan industri, karir
yang semakin dihindari oleh lulusan perguruan tinggi muda. Fokus kebijakan ini juga
membesarkan sektor properti China menjadi seperempat dari aktivitas ekonomi dan membuat
pemerintah lokal sangat bergantung pada utang sehingga banyak yang kini kesulitan untuk
mendapatkan pembiayaan kembali. Pandemi, penurunan jumlah penduduk, dan ketegangan
geopolitik semakin memperburuk semua masalah ini sehingga ekonomi China sulit pulih pada
tahun ini meskipun China mulai membuka kembali ekonominya. "Kita berada pada saat di mana
kita melihat beberapa pergeseran struktural, tetapi kita seharusnya sudah melihatnya datang,"
kata Max Zenglein, kepala ekonom di MERICS, sebuah lembaga studi China. "Kita baru saja
mulai dihadapkan pada kenyataannya. Kita berada di wilayah yang belum diuji." Berakhirnya
kebangkitan ekonomi China kemungkinan akan merugikan para eksportir komoditas dan
menyebabkan deflasi ekspor di seluruh dunia. Di dalam negeri, hal ini akan mengancam standar
hidup jutaan lulusan pengangguran dan banyak orang yang kekayaannya terikat pada properti,
sehingga menimbulkan risiko stabilitas sosial.

KRISIS VS STAGNASI
Selain dari solusi jangka pendek, yang kemungkinan hanya akan memperpanjang investasi
berbasis utang, para ekonom melihat ada tiga pilihan bagi China. Pertama, kSebuah krisis yang
cepat dan menyakitkan dapat terjadi jika pasar properti yang besar runtuh secara tidak terkendali,
dan hal itu akan membawa sektor keuangan bersamanya. Titik tekanan lainnya adalah hutang
pemerintah daerah, yang diperkirakan oleh Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF) mencapai $9
triliun. China berjanji pada bulan Juli untuk mengambil "sejumlah langkah" untuk mengatasi
risiko hutang daerah, tetapi belum memberikan rincian. Logan Wright, mitra di Rhodium Group,
mengatakan bahwa Beijing harus memutuskan bagian mana dari hutang tersebut yang akan
diselamatkan, karena jumlahnya terlalu besar untuk memberikan jaminan penuh atas
pembayaran, yang saat ini dianggap sebagai jaminan tersirat oleh pasar. "Krisis akan terjadi di
China ketika kredibilitas pemerintah goyah," katanya. "Ketika tiba-tiba pendanaan terputus untuk
investasi yang tersisa yang tampaknya rentan terhadap risiko pasar, itu adalah saat yang sangat
tidak pasti di pasar keuangan China. "Namun, mengingat kendali negara terhadap banyak
pengembang dan bank serta batasan yang ketat terhadap arus modal keluar ke aset di luar negeri,
banyak ekonom menganggap hal tersebut sebagai skenario risiko rendah. Alicia Garcia Herrero,
kepala ekonomi Asia Pasifik di Natixis, mengharapkan akan banyak pembeli jika Beijing
mengkonsolidasikan hutang tersebut mengingat terbatasnya alternatif investasi. "Saya lebih
cenderung pada pemikiran pertumbuhan yang lambat," katanya. "Semakin tinggi tumpukan
utang untuk proyek yang tidak produktif, semakin rendah pengembalian atas aset, terutama
investasi publik, dan itu berarti China tidak dapat tumbuh keluar dari situasi ini." Namun,
menghindari krisis dengan memperpanjang periode penyesuaian juga memiliki risiko stabilitas
tersendiri, dengan tingkat pengangguran pemuda yang mencapai 21% dan sekitar 70% kekayaan
rumah tangga yang diinvestasikan dalam properti. "Salah satu kisah sukses terbesar China,
membangun kelas menengah yang kuat, juga menjadi kerentanan terbesarnya," kata Zenglein
dari MERICS. "Jika Anda melihatnya dari perspektif orang muda, Anda sekarang berisiko
menjadi generasi pasca-reformasi pertama yang kesejahteraan ekonominya bisa mengalami
hambatan. Jika pesannya adalah mengencangkan ikat pinggang dan menggelar lengan baju, itu
akan sulit untuk diterima."
REFORMASI, KALI INI?

Jalur ketiga, yaitu beralih secara aktif ke model baru, dianggap sangat tidak mungkin,
berdasarkan apa yang terjadi pada program 60 poin Xi Jinping. Rencana tersebut hampir tidak
pernah disebutkan sejak tahun 2015 ketika ketakutan akan arus keluar modal menyebabkan
penurunan saham dan yuan, dan melahirkan ketidaksetujuan resmi terhadap reformasi yang
berpotensi mengganggu, kata para analis. China sejak itu mundur dari liberalisasi pasar keuangan
yang besar sementara rencana untuk mengendalikan perusahaan milik negara dan
memperkenalkan perlindungan sosial universal tidak pernah benar-benar terwujud. "Saat ini
adalah saat yang mungkin untuk kereta ini berubah arah menjadi model baru, dan saya pikir ada
niat untuk melakukannya," kata Hurst. "Tetapi pada saat yang sama, ada ketakutan akan risiko
politik dan sosial jangka pendek, terutama memprovokasi krisis ekonomi."

5 STRATEGIES

1. Terminology consistency: Ensuring consistent translation of key terms throughout the text.
For example, in the given text, the term "hutang" is consistently translated as "debt"
throughout the translation.

2. Cultural adaptation: Adapting cultural references and idiomatic expressions to make them
more appropriate for the target language. For example, the expression "membangun kelas
menengah yang kuat" is translated as "building a strong middle class" to convey the same
meaning in English.

3. Structural adjustments: Adapting the sentence structure and word order to conform to the
grammatical rules of the target language. For example, the sentence "China keluar dari
ekonomi terencana versi Mao pada tahun 1980-an" is translated as "China emerged from the
planned economy of Mao's era in the 1980s" to maintain clarity and readability in English.

4. Paraphrasing: Restating complex or lengthy sentences in a more concise and

straightforward manner. For example, the sentence "Hal ini menyebabkan permintaan
konsumen tetap lebih rendah sebagai bagian dari PDB dibandingkan dengan kebanyakan
negara lain" is paraphrased as "This has led to lower consumer demand as a share of GDP
compared to most other countries" to simplify the sentence structure.
5. Contextualization: Providing additional information or explanations to ensure the
translated text is understandable and meaningful in the target language. For example, in the
sentence "Berakhirnya kebangkitan ekonomi China...menimbulkan risiko stabilitas sosial,"
the term "standar hidup" is added in the translation to clarify that it refers to the "standard of
living."