BUY (Maintain) 

CMP: INR 207 Target Price: INR 245  18% ICICI Securities Limited is the author and distributor of this report

05 December 2024 India | Equity Research | Company Update

Inox Wind
Capital Goods

Supercharging an RE branded house

We attended the INOXGFL Group Vision Day held on 2 Dec’24; takeaways being the INOXGFL group’s foray into: 1)
renewable power generation for the commercial and industrial (C&I) sector with an envisaged capacity of 3GW by
FY27/FY28; 2) production of solar cells and modules as well as EPC and O&M services; and 3) systematically targeting
third party C&I players looking for hybrid RE solutions through these new ventures. The group is spreading its wings
beyond WTG (and related services) to become a forward-integrated comprehensive renewables player. The vision of
the group is to be present across the value chain in India’s pursuit for energy transition. The group aims to leverage the
solid foundation of Inox Wind to piece together the rest of the puzzle. Maintain BUY at a TP of INR 245.

Kicking off RE solutions for C&I players Mohit Kumar

The group is setting a C&I renewable power generation company – ‘IGREL kumar.mohit@icicisecurities.com
+91 22 6807 7419
Renewables’ – at the promotor-level. The group aims to build a hybrid portfolio
Abhijeet Singh
of 3GW in the next 2–3 years. PPAs and LoIs with GFL (the group’s chemical
abhijeet.singh@icicisecurities.com
arm) and other third party off-takers are in place. Operational capacity of Mahesh Patil
IGREL is 157MW of wind with another 36MW near commissioning. Moreover, mahesh.patil@icicisecurities.com
orders have been placed for another 750MW of wind and 250MW of solar. Abhinav Nalawade
abhinav.nalawade@icicisecurities.com
Venturing into solar manufacturing Nidhi Shah
The group is also venturing into the production of solar cells and modules nidhi.shah@icicisecurities.com
along with end-to-end EPC and O&M solutions through ‘Inox Solar’. The group
Market Data
aims for a capacity of 4.8GW of modules and 2.4GW of TOPCon cells by FY27.
Market Cap (INR) 269bn
Market Cap (USD) 3,180mn
Synergising their part in India’s RE story Bloomberg Code INXW IN
IGREL to benefit from Inox Wind (WTG), Inox Resco (Wind EPC) and Inox Reuters Code INWN.BO
Green (O&M) through backward integration and GFL as initial off-taker. 52-week Range (INR) 262 /73
Similarly, Inox Solar to benefit from these companies via forward integration. Free Float (%) 52.0
ADTV-3M (mn) (USD) 27.5
FY25 guidance reiterated; maintain BUY with a TP of INR 245
The company also reiterated its guidance of execution of 800MW (2x FY24) in Price Performance (%) 3m 6m 12m
FY25 and stated its goals for FY25 (1.2GW; +50% YoY) and FY26 (2GW; +67% Absolute (7.3) 34.7 187.0
Relative to Sensex (5.3) 29.0 167.2
YoY) as well. We believe the synergies from the new businesses are to benefit
Inox Wind as well. We maintain BUY with a TP of INR 245 per share.
ESG Score 2023 2024 Change

Financial Summary ESG score 64.7 NA NA

Environment 44.8 NA NA
Y/E March (INR mn) FY23A FY24A FY25E FY26E Social 64.7 NA NA
Net Revenue 7,370 17,432 44,988 73,050 Governance 74.7 NA NA
EBITDA (2,638) 2,686 7,825 11,277 Note - Score ranges from 0 - 100 with a higher
number indicating a higher ESG score.
EBITDA Margin (%) (35.8) 15.4 17.4 15.4
Net Profit (6,707) (429) 4,867 8,641 Source: SES ESG, I-sec research

EPS (INR) (5.1) (0.3) 3.6 5.3

EPS % Chg YoY (76.3) (93.6) (1,193.5) 47.1
Previous Reports
P/E (x) (40.2) (627.5) 57.4 39.0
28-10-2024: Q2FY25 results review
EV/EBITDA (x) (109.5) 110.4 39.0 31.9
13-08-2024: Q1FY25 results review
RoCE (%) (8.8) 5.3 13.0 17.3
RoE (%) (37.6) (2.5) 25.1 33.0

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Inox Wind | Company Update | 05 December 2024

Outlook and valuation

Inox Wind (INOX) is benefitting from the improvement in industry prospects. Due to
industry slowdown and low execution, INOX saw a substantial spike in debt from
FY17-FY23. The company has been deleveraging and its net debt reduced to ~INR
6.5bn by end-FY24. In addition, the industry is looking up and a revival led by a slew
of policy actions is in the offing along with strong bidding activity for RE projects with
wind component of 10–12GW in FY24.
INOX has witnessed a sharp improvement in order inflow (at 2.3GW in FY24). This
inflow was largely driven by 1,500MW of order from CESC, which may be executed
over the next 3–4 years. This has improved execution growth visibility over the next 3–
4 years and should substantially improve execution growth over the next 1–2 years.
We maintain BUY on the stock with an SoTP-based target price of INR 245/share,
valuing the wind business at 35x FY26E EPS.
Key risks: 1) Slowdown in order inflow; and 2) slowdown in RE project bidding.

Maintain BUY and TP of INR 245

Particulars Methodology Stake Value (INR mn) INR/share
Wind Business 35x FY26E EPS 100% 3,11,063 239
Less: NCRPS 18,700 14
Add: Tax Shield - -
Sub-total 2,92,363 224
Inox Green Mkt cap adjusted @15% for holdco 56% 27,702 21
Total 3,20,065 245
Source: I-Sec research, Company data

Guidance of +75% CAGR over FY24–27E

Actuals Guidance
Particulars
FY22 FY23 FY24 H1FY25 FY25 FY26 FY27
Execution (MW) 112 104 372 280 800 1,200 2,000
YoY growth (%) 40% -7% 258% 115% 50% 67%
Source: I-Sec research, Company data

Structure of INOXGFL Group

Source: I-Sec research, Company data

India | Equity Research 2

Inox Wind | Company Update | 05 December 2024

Shareholding pattern Price chart

% Mar‘24 Jun‘24 Sep‘24 300
Promoters 52.9 48.3 48.3 250
Institutional investors 19.2 23.6 25.1 200

(INR)
MFs and others 8.9 7.9 7.2 150
FIs/Banks 0.5 0.5 0.0 100
Insurance 0.3 0.1 0.2 50
FIIs 9.5 15.1 17.7 0

Mar-22

Jun-22

Mar-23

Mar-24
Jun-23

Sep-23

Jun-24
Dec-21

Sep-22

Dec-22

Dec-23

Sep-24

Dec-24
Others 27.9 28.1 26.6

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

India | Equity Research 3

Inox Wind | Company Update | 05 December 2024

Financial Summary
Profit & Loss Cashflow statement
(INR mn, year ending March) (INR mn, year ending March)

FY23A FY24A FY25E FY26E FY23A FY24A FY25E FY26E

Net Sales 7,370 17,432 44,988 73,050 Operating Cashflow 722 (2,938) 3,858 5,915
Operating Expenses 5,446 2,571 3,110 4,011 Working Capital Changes (3,729) (6,149) (4,415) (5,833)
EBITDA (2,638) 2,686 7,825 11,277 Capital Commitments (4,234) (2,242) (500) (300)
EBITDA Margin (%) (35.8) 15.4 17.4 15.4 Free Cashflow 4,956 (696) 4,358 6,215
Depreciation & Amortization 1,062 1,100 1,680 1,680 Other investing cashflow - - - -
EBIT (3,699) 1,587 6,145 9,597 Cashflow from Investing
(4,234) (2,242) (500) (300)
Interest expenditure 3,407 2,483 1,485 1,096 Activities
Other Non-operating Issue of Share Capital - - - -
214 561 449 471
Income Interest Cost (3,407) (2,483) (1,485) (1,096)
Recurring PBT (6,892) (335) 5,109 8,973 Inc (Dec) in Borrowings 6,881 7,319 (334) 2,000
Profit / (Loss) from Dividend paid - - - -
- - - -
Associates Others 511 (1,801) - -
Less: Taxes (185) 36 - - Cash flow from Financing
3,985 2,910 (2,063) 660
PAT (6,707) (566) 4,867 8,641 Activities
Less: Minority Interest - (58) (242) (331) Chg. in Cash & Bank
474 (2,163) 1,298 6,188
Extraordinaries (Net) - (137) - - balance
Net Income (Reported) (6,707) (566) 4,867 8,641 Closing cash & balance 2,702 539 1,837 8,025
Net Income (Adjusted) (6,707) (429) 4,867 8,641
Source Company data, I-Sec research

Source Company data, I-Sec research

Key ratios
(Year ending March)
Balance sheet
(INR mn, year ending March)
FY23A FY24A FY25E FY26E
Per Share Data (INR)
FY23A FY24A FY25E FY26E Reported EPS (5.1) (0.3) 3.6 5.3
Total Current Assets 30,875 30,590 58,602 88,306 Adjusted EPS (Diluted) (5.1) (0.3) 3.6 5.3
of which cash & cash eqv. 2,702 539 1,837 8,025 Cash EPS (4.3) 0.5 4.8 6.3
Total Current Liabilities & Dividend per share (DPS) - - - -
13,210 11,113 33,412 51,095
Provisions Book Value per share (BV) 13.3 13.0 16.2 18.7
Net Current Assets 17,665 19,477 25,190 37,211 Dividend Payout (%) - - - -
Investments 5,070 6,871 6,871 6,871
Net Fixed Assets 15,795 15,507 14,527 13,347 Growth (%)
ROU Assets - - - - Net Sales 18.0 136.5 158.1 62.4
Capital Work-in-Progress 1,232 2,662 2,462 2,262 EBITDA (15.0) (201.8) 191.3 44.1
Total Intangible Assets - - - - EPS (INR) (76.3) (93.6) (1,193.5) 47.1
Other assets 7,853 9,517 9,517 9,517
Deferred Tax Assets - - - - Valuation Ratios (x)
Total Assets 47,614 54,035 58,568 69,209 P/E (40.2) (627.5) 57.4 39.0
Liabilities P/CEPS (47.7) 401.9 42.7 32.7
Borrowings 24,063 31,383 31,049 33,049 P/BV 15.5 15.9 12.8 11.1
Deferred Tax Liability - - - - EV / EBITDA (109.5) 110.4 39.0 31.9
provisions - - - - P / Sales 37.0 15.6 6.3 4.7
other Liabilities 6,188 5,678 5,678 5,678 Dividend Yield (%) - - - -
Equity Share Capital 3,259 3,259 3,259 3,259
Reserves & Surplus 14,104 13,714 18,581 27,223 Operating Ratios
Total Net Worth 17,363 16,974 21,841 30,482 Gross Profit Margins (%) 38.1 30.2 24.3 20.9
Minority Interest - - - - EBITDA Margins (%) (35.8) 15.4 17.4 15.4
Total Liabilities 47,614 54,035 58,568 69,209 Effective Tax Rate (%) 2.7 (10.8) - -
Source Company data, I-Sec research Net Profit Margins (%) (91.0) (3.2) 10.8 11.8
NWC / Total Assets (%) 31.4 35.0 39.9 42.2
Net Debt / Equity (x) 0.9 1.4 1.0 0.6
Net Debt / EBITDA (x) (6.2) 8.9 2.9 1.6

Profitability Ratios
RoCE (%) (8.8) 5.3 13.0 17.3
RoE (%) (37.6) (2.5) 25.1 33.0
RoIC (%) (8.8) 5.3 13.0 17.3
Fixed Asset Turnover (x) 0.5 1.1 3.0 5.2
Inventory Turnover Days 606 366 303 248
Receivables Days 443 335 288 210
Payables Days 331 178 332 285
Source Company data, I-Sec research

India | Equity Research 4

Inox Wind | Company Update | 05 December 2024

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New I-Sec investment ratings (all ratings based on absolute return; All ratings and target price refers to 12-month performance horizon, unless mentioned otherwise)
BUY: >15% return; ADD: 5% to 15% return; HOLD: Negative 5% to Positive 5% return; REDUCE: Negative 5% to Negative 15% return; SELL: < negative 15% return

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Inox Wind | Company Update | 05 December 2024

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