Understanding WGSN's

STEPIC Framework
WGSN’s proprietary STEPIC methodology is the foundation
for all our forecasts, synthesising changes across Society,
Technology, the Environment, Politics, Industry and
Creativity. We unpack how it works and why it provides a
more holistic and interconnected approach to predicting
the future

Cassandra Napoli
07.02.24 - 9 minutes

WGSN AI Image
Executive summary
WGSN identifies, verifies and tracks trends by using a mixture of qualitative and quantitative data and
expertise to forecast what is coming in the short-, medium- and long-term future.

Opportunity STEPIC defined

In a complex world, trends are born from the convergence of many disparate factors. Society: socio-cultural shifts that will impact consumers, businesses and products
WGSN observes, synthesises and forecasts these factors through our STEPIC lens to (demographics, education, healthcare, lifestyles, social conventions)
uncover, understand and predict the future impact of market shifts. This methodology
Technology: the impact of technology on businesses, consumer behaviour and product
is the foundation of all our trend forecasting, and it empowers us to anticipate signals of
design (access, artificial intelligence, automation, big tech, digitisation, the internet and the
change, answer pivotal questions and highlight possible futures for the short, medium IoT, machine learning, the metaverse and web3)
and long term.
Environment: the climate crisis will increasingly alter business strategies, consumer
Need to know:
perspectives and the products that serve them (carbon footprints, conservation,
STEPIC stands for Society, Technology, the Environment, Politics, Industry, circularity, de-growth, pollution, recycling, regeneration, upcycling)
Creativity Politics: changes in governments and new ideologies and identities have clear effects
Our methodology expands on the standard PEST (Politics, Economics, Society, on consumer attitudes and behaviours as well as an impact on brands (diplomacy,
Technology) trend forecasting framework by including Industry (encompassing elections, instability, legislation, migration patterns, trade relations)
economics), the Environment (recognising its protection as a strategic imperative Industry: analysis of the industrial landscape, including the make-up of economies, as
for all businesses) and Creativity (exploring its impact on culture and innovation). well as changes in industrial processes and priorities (economic outlooks, energy
The result is a more holistic approach to uncovering the changes that will shape our
consumption, ingredients and materials, manufacturing and supply chains, resources,
world
productivity, workforce efficiency)
Our methodology relies on qualitative and quantitative insights, including data from
Creativity: shifts in self-expression and identity, and how these influence and reflect
the five S’s: shows (catwalks), social media, shelf (retail SKUs), search and consumer demands for products and environments (art, craft, cuisine, design, gender,
sentiment. This ensures we can be more specific with our forecasting across identity politics, literature, subcultures)
industries
WGSN’s methodology explores interconnections between all six STEPIC pillars. It is
not a siloed approach. By synthesising all of these inputs, we are able to truly
capture the subtlety and complexity of the world that future consumers will inhabit,
and articulate the trends that will resonate most with them

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Society
Need to know: the ‘S’ in STEPIC represents the socio-cultural shifts set to impact
consumers, businesses and product design in the years ahead. It encompasses
demography (by 2050, people aged 60 and over will outnumber people aged 10 to 24) and
generational trends (demographics are getting smaller). It also encompasses education
(global teacher shortages are threatening the future of education, with 69m needed for
basic universal education by 2030) as well as health, wellness and the care economy.
Why it matters: understanding these socio-cultural shifts can help businesses and
governments anticipate future needs and rethink designs and systems. Societal shifts
help leaders see what’s coming so they can plan for the short- and long-term knock-on
effects. Universities, for example, have been anticipating the ‘enrolment cliff’ set to
arrive in 2025 for years, which refers to the decline in the college-age population due to
low birth rates. This will impact schools financially, and will hit businesses as fewer
qualified candidates enter the job market and fewer students shop at retailers.

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In action

Deathtostock

People are living longer (by 2050 the 60+ global population is set to grow to 2.1 billion, up from 1
billion in 2020, and those aged 80+ are expected to triple to reach 426 million). Many are also having
fewer children globally, such as in South Korea, which has the lowest birth rate globally despite
offering cash subsidies, accessible childcare and fertility treatments. More governments and
businesses will need to prepare care infrastructure that can accommodate an ageing population

Deathtostock

India has overtaken China as the world's most populous country and is not expected to reach its Deathtostock
peak in population until 2065. It's also experiencing a ‘youth bulge’ which is expected to last through
2025, with nearly half its population under age 25. This digitally-native group will transform global By 2030, Millennials will be ageing into mid-life as the eldest will reach 50, forcing brands to rethink
consumption and the workforce, and brands that anticipate this shift and court this group now will strategies and redefine messaging. By 2030, it's also forecast that 45% of US women aged 24 to 44
future-proof their business will be single and childless, with knock-on effects on lifestyle and product opportunities

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Technology
Need to know: The 'T' in STEPIC looks at everything from widespread internet use (as of
April 2024, 67.1% of the global population has access to the internet, which is forecast to
jump to 90% of the projected global population aged six and older by 2030) and the
threat of big tech, to metaverse hype and the implications of AI. Tech-celleration will
redefine every aspect of life in the future, with technology surfacing and changing the
way we live our lives faster this century than ever before.
Why it matters: technological shifts are rapidly emerging and impacting supply chains
and customer journeys, which could spell trouble for brands that don't pay attention
amid increased competition and globalisation. Businesses don’t need to invest in every
technology that comes along, but it will be important to experiment, question and
critique to anticipate how different innovations could affect future business. Technology
is also emerging faster than regulations can keep up with, so it’s up to businesses to
ensure users’ privacy and safety are prioritised and protected.

Julia M Cameron / Pexels

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In action

WGSN AI Image Deathtostock

According to unpublished Google data, many US Gen Z are As AI disruptions loom, 12 million workers could be displaced and
Deathtostock spending time on TikTok for recommendations over traditional forced to move into new industries by 2030, with low-wage
search platforms. Unsurprisingly, it’s increasingly powering the workers being 14 times more likely to be affected. Many of these
Some experts predict 90% of online content could be AI- shopper journey – 55% of users have made a purchase after jobs are expected to stem from the service industry, with a
generated by 2026, which could amplify the post-truth era. Big seeing an item on TikTok according to a survey by Student Beans. decline in 1.6m clerk jobs, 830k retail salespeople, 710k admin
Tech is already starting to develop solutions to counter this issue The app is moving full steam ahead with its e-commerce assistants and 630k cashiers. Walmart expects 65% of its stores
with Google introducing watermarks on AI-generated content ambitions (it purchased US warehouses to serve as fulfilment will be "serviced by automation" come 2026, but they’re actually
while TikTok is pushing creators to adopt transparency and label centres), which could usher in a new era of social commerce with anticipating maintaining or even growing staff levels in the future,
AI content, meaning businesses will have to navigate these murky the opportunity for brands to convert passive audiences into though these roles may look different to the support function
waters carefully in the years ahead active shoppers via clever content they provide today

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Environment
Need to know: the climate emergency is one of the biggest threats facing humans, and
it’s intensifying – the pace of rising global sea levels doubled between 2006 and 2015
compared with most of the 20th century. The impacts of the climate crisis are not evenly
distributed, with poorer countries suffering the most. Some of the poorest nations are
the least polluting while also being the most climate-vulnerable, and 55 of them suffered
economic losses of more than $500bn in the last two decades due to climate change.
Unpacking the changes in the environment includes paying attention to carbon
footprints, circularity, de-growth, green tech and regeneration
Why it matters: there’s a lot to unpack, from new innovations to consumer sentiments,
both of which have equal importance and can help to anticipate the future.
Governments are stepping in with environmental solutions, developing global
agreements such as The High Seas Treaty, which aims to protect 30% of the sea by 2030,
but it’s also critical governments align and work with businesses to solve the issues
emerging at the hands of climate change, particularly around the global economy,
health and industry, which demonstrates the value of our interconnected STEPIC
methodology. Sustainability is not a nice to have but a necessity so businesses will need
to ensure they invest in green skills, avoid greenwashing and hold themselves
accountable to restore damaged trust (which is now at record lows) and safeguard future
resources.

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In action

Deathtostock

40% of 10,000 16- to 25-year-olds globally say

they are hesitant to have kids due to climate
change. Complying with the goal to achieve net
zero by 2050 would mean those humans born
after 2050 would not produce lifetime emissions.
Could this re-encourage young people to
reproduce?

Deathtostock

Upcircle Beauty The International Labour Organization forecasts

the green economy will generate about 24m jobs
Deathtostock Consumers are enduring a global health, cost-of- globally by 2030, confirming a sustainability
living and climate crisis all at once. They will transition is unfolding in business. At the
By 2050, over 5 billion people could face one month of extreme heat annually while summer heat continue to battle the tension of cost and climate consumer level, interest in the climate will spur a
highs could rise 6F degrees in some US cities, with knock-on societal effects such as increased risk and businesses will need to prioritise content rise in climate quitting and a low-carbon career
of disease and worker displacement. This could accelerate an indoor economy and also transform that addresses both; look to UK beauty label movement as workers migrate from high-carbon
8the service industry and give rise to new products like sun-repellent clothing (look to Claudent, UpCircle, which offered a 'how-to' tutorial for industries to low-carbon ones. Is your business
which produces products that block 98% of the sun's rays) making mascara with its charcoal soap prepared to navigate these realities?
Politics
What you need to know: it's crucial to understand regional and global political shifts to
navigate global business. The 'P' in STEPIC examines themes such as diplomacy,
elections, legislation, migration and trade relations to help our team of forecasters
anticipate the short-, medium- and long-term effects of politics on consumer attitudes
and spending behaviours, and the direct impact on brands.
Why it matters: while it’s impossible to predict political events, such as Russia’s invasion
of Ukraine in 2022, we can anticipate their effects on business. The invasion propelled
demands for global businesses to divest from Russia (with store closures and symbolic
protests) and prepare for long-term supply chain hurdles, shifts in consumer confidence
and spending, and global uncertainty. The concept of actvertising will grow more
important in a fractured and unstable political environment, with businesses having to
use their ads to demonstrate values and where they stand politically to appeal to the 70%
of US consumers who say it’s crucial for brands to speak out.

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In action

The Tampon Tax Back Coalition

US period brands August, Cora, LOLA, The Honey

Pot, Rael, Here We Flo, Saalt and DIVA formed a
coalition to pay their customers back for the US
sales tax placed on menstrual products, known
as the ‘tampon tax’

Deathtostock

The future of South Korea could look very WGSN AI Image

America250 different as more Gen Z ascend to political office.
In 2022, lawmakers lowered the minimum age Immigration is a contentious political issue
In 2026, the US will celebrate its 250th birthday and there will be a big focus on what it means to limit for political office from 25 to 18, and there globally, but amid declining birth rates,
be American in a time of division. A 2022 Gallup poll found a record low of 38% of Americans say was a record number of young people under 40 immigrants could help sustain populations in the
they are “extremely proud” to be American, down from 70% in 2003. After the 200th birthday in who ran in elections — 416 candidates, up from coming decades. Economists also foresee
1976, there was an economic boom, though it spurred more division. Are businesses prepared to 238 in 2018 – and 11 candidates under 24 won immigrants helping to fill skill gaps in job markets
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navigate this type of uncertainty? their elections where there are not enough workers to fill roles
Industry
Need to know: WGSN explores global economic shifts and changes in business processes
and priorities. This includes energy consumption, innovations in ingredients and
materials, manufacturing and supply chains, productivity norms and workforce
efficiency. We look at the leading innovations in each field and cross-pollinate these
across multiple categories to paint a comprehensive picture of which industry could be
disrupted next.
Why it matters: paying attention to evolving industrial innovations helps businesses
anticipate shifts and future-proof. These are interconnected with the other aspects of
STEPIC; migration shifts (Society, Politics) such as the fact that seven out of every 10
people are projected to live in cities in 2050, will alter how we design and navigate cities
– and for who (Politics, Creativity) – while resource shifts resulting from climate change
(Environment) will dictate how we safeguard crops, raw materials and scale innovation
(Technology).

Tom Fisk / Pexels

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In action

Deathtostock Deliveroo

By 2050, when the eldest born in Generation Beta (set to emerge According to Deliveroo's Snack to the Future report, people’s diets
between the mid-20s and 2040) enter their 20s, 68% of people could be tailored to their personal mental, physical, social and
are expected to live in urban areas. Cities will need to be environmental needs or goals by 2040, when the personalised
redesigned and infrastructure will need to be reconsidered, nutrition market is forecast to be worth £66bn (approx $83.4bn).
especially around accessibility and inclusion Food, drink and FMCG brands will need to prepare for this shift.

Deathtostock
IKEA Deathtostock
66% of mothers considered leaving the workforce in 2024 due to
When Swedish manufacturer IKEA entered the Indian market, the high childcare costs (with that number ballooning to 82% for We’re likely to see more investment in scaling ingredients and raw
country insisted that 30% of products sold in its stores be made mothers under 30). Flexible work is central to their wellbeing, but materials to save resources and money in the future. Look to the
in the nation. This is a move we are likely to see more amid rising could also economically benefit organisations. The UK’s House of rise of startups eliminating the need for threatened, but much-
geopolitical tensions, trade wars, material spikes and container Commons revealed companies run by women outperform those loved ingredients which are scaling, like WNWN’s cocoa-free
pile-ups, with brands looking to source closer to home. In fact, run by men. Brands must think about their return to work policies chocolate, which is rolling out in Europe. There’s also the rise of
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half of EU brands and 40% of US brands listed near-shoring and benefits packages, and how they are empowering women to climate hero crops and drought-tolerant varieties that are
among their sourcing strategies for 2023 remain in the workforce long-term providing innovative solutions for extreme weather
Creativity
Need to know: the ways people express themselves reflect and are reflected in the items
they desire and the environments they develop. We look at creativity via the lens of
subcultures, gender and identity politics, and movements/innovations in art, craft,
cuisine, design, literature and music.
Why it matters: while Creativity is the last piece of the STEPIC puzzle, it’s by no means
the least important. In fact, it’s quite the opposite as these inputs are the most sensitive
and volatile and act as the driving force linking all other areas of STEPIC. The standard
PEST (Politics, Economics, Society, Technology) analysis lacks key components to fully
mitigate risk, which is where the ‘C' in our STEPIC methodology comes in, helping to
envision ideas and anticipate solutions that do not yet exist to solve big-picture
problems. Businesses will need to invest in strategic imagination (a creative and adaptive
problem-solving approach to envision ideas and solutions that do not yet exist) to create
opportunities across the STEPIC framework. Strategic imagination isn’t a wasteful
workshop exercise, but an investment to generate profitable business ideas, product
strategies, work environments and consumer interactions to thrive in a market
characterised by volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity (VUCA).

Rakicevic Nenad / Pexels

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In action

Deathtostock Vacant to Vibrant

Deathtostock Considering 91% of US Gen Z already believe there is no such Cities across the globe have suffered amid the rise of remote
thing as a mainstream pop culture, it's clear that niche is work, creating what’s been dubbed an urban doom loop. Some
The creator economy could be worth $500bn by 2027, offering a becoming the new norm. In this era, interest-based communities leaders are now engineering creativity back into city centres to
path to economic freedom for people making content on the web, and subcultures will emerge and thrive, accelerating IYKYK encourage people to return. San Francisco has launched its
and a chance to join the middle class of creators. Governments commerce (products sold by brands/creators that make sense Vacant to Vibrant project to revitalise its downtown, offering
are preparing; the UK plans to grow the size of its local creator only to those most loyal fans who understand them). Businesses grants of up to $12k for businesses interested in having free retail
economy by £50bn (approximately $63.2bn) in order to boost the won’t need to try to be everything to every consumer, but rather space to operate a pop-up shop for six months, which could
economy and create one million jobs by 2030 foster community and speak directly to loyal and engaged fans redefine downtown life and create an impermanent retail norm

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WGSN trend matrix A/W 25/26
Mapping the continuity between the themes covered in our STEPIC Drivers, STEPIC Innovations, Big Ideas
and Product Forecasts.

STEPIC STEPIC Drivers STEPIC Innovations Big Ideas Forecast

Old Answers to New Questions
The Age
Design for Need
Spectrum
Life-Stage Design

Society
Human-Tech Symbiosis
Intentional Tech Optimised Efficiency
AI for Good Re/Generations
Technology

Bio-Industrial Revolution
Eco-Accountability Acceleration Point
Environment
Fluid Ecologies
Intelligent
Simplicity
Fresh Perspectives
Politics Geopolitical
New Pathways
Tensions
Rebellious Resistance

Industry
Long-Term Lifespans Alt-Optimism
Polarised
Scaled to Fit
Consumption
Designed to Disappear
Creativity

Multisensory Interfaces
World-Building Feel Appeal
Glimmers

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Related reports

STEPIC Drivers 2026 STEPIC Innovations 2026 The Future of Ageing The Future of Language The Future of Extreme
Living

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