ClimateChange,SourcesandImpacts

 WhatisClimateChange?Science

 CausesofClimateChange?

 ClimateImpacts?

 GlobalGoalsofClimateChange?

 HowtoaddressClimateChange?Mitigation +
Adaptation
 Energybudgetandgreenhouseeffect
The delicate balance
between the incoming
short wave (ultra violet)
radiation and the
outgoinglongwave(infra
red) radiation maintains
earth’s surface
temperature at a level
sufficient to support life
on the planet
Some gases (called greenhouse gases) present in the
earth’satmosphere(intraceamounts)traptheoutgoing
radiation, raising the temperatureof the earth's surface the
phenomenoniscommonlyknown asthegreenhouseeffect
CausesofClimateChange…

GHGemissionsfrom
• Industrialization
• Urbanization
• Deforestation
• Landusechanges
Thetargetscoveremissionsofth
e sixmaingreenhousegases:

• Carbondioxide(CO2);
• Methane(CH4);
• Nitrousoxide(N2O);
• Hydrofluorocarbons(HFCs); MontrealProtocol
• Perfluorocarbons(PFCs);and
• Sulphurhexafluoride(SF6)
 GHGsaffectedbyhuman
activit iC…
eOs CH4 N 2O HFC-23
2
Pre-industrial About290ppm About700ppb About270ppb Zero
concentration

Concentrationin 365ppm 1745ppb 314ppb 14ppt

1998

Rate of 1.5ppm/yr 7.0ppb/yra 0.8ppb/yr 0.55ppt/yr

concentration
change

Atmospheric 5to200 yr 12yr 114yr 260yr

lifetime

Source:climatechange2001,TheScientificBasis,TechnicalSummaryoftheWorking
Group
Group/Report
CarbonAccumulatedin
Atmosphere…
 421ppmalreadyaccumulatedasof2017

 last130years,theworldhaswarmedbyapproximately0.85oC.Eachof the
last 3 decades has been successivelywarmerthan any preceding
decade since 1850
ClimateChangeImapcts
Keyimpactsasafunctionofincreasingglobal
average temperature change…
ImpactsReported…
 SnowMelting=Sealevelrise
 Loss of biodiversity = Growth of deserts /
desertification
 Droughts=lossoflivelihoods/food/nutrition
 Reductionincropyields=Displacement/Migration
 Floods = Loss of human lives / damage to
infrastructure

‘Between1994and2013,EM-DATrecorded6,873natural
disasters worldwide, which claimed 1.35 millionlives or
almost68,000lives on average each year.In addition, 218
millionpeople were affected by naturaldisasters on
averageperannumduringthis20-yearperiod.’…UNoffice
onDRR
HealthImpactsforecasted…
 Between 2030 and 2050, climate change is expected to
cause approximately 250,000 additional deaths per
year, from malnutrition, malaria, diarrhoea and heat
stress
 The direct damage costs to health (i.e. excluding costs
in health-determining sectors such as agriculture and
water and sanitation), is estimated to be between US$
2-4 billion/year by 2030.
 HighlightsofAR5(Science)…
 Global changes- estimated warming of 0.85
degreesCelsius since 1880, with the fastest rate
of warming intheArctic.
 Sea- level rise- Greater that 66% chance that the
Arctic Ocean will be ice free during a greater part
ofthe summer before 2050 under a high
emissionscenario.
 Land based food systems- climate change to
affectfood security in areas where most of the
world’sfoodproductionoccurs.
 Temperature rise- average annual temperatures
couldrise by more than 2°C over land in most of
South Asiaby the mid-21st century and exceed
3°C under a highemissions scenario.
 HighlightsofAR5(Science)…
 Rainfall trends- by mid-21st century southern
areasof Asia will experience more rainfall.
Rainfall will bemore extreme near the centres of
tropical cyclonesmaking landfall in South Asia.
 Sea level rise- magnitude of sea level rise by
thecentury’s end implies increased risks for
SouthAsia’s coastal settlements particularly if
combinedwithchangesincyclonefrequencyor
intensity.
Vicious
Cycle…

Polluters
are also
impacted!
HeatWaveinEurope2019…
2016MathewCycloneinAmerica…
2019HeatWavesinUSA…
2016CycloneinJapan…

ThreeCyclonesatonce!
2016CycloneinAustralia…
2016SnowBlizzardinChina…
2019FloodsinMumba i…

Cities
Flooded
- Mumbai
- Ahmedaba
d
- Chennai
- Assam
DroughtinIndia…
-20%Waterleftin
Country’sWaterreservoirs

Water Trains to Drought

impactedregionsinIndia
- In2016
- In2018
- In2019
GangotriGlacierReceding…
 April
2008
ImjaGlaciallake
ImjaGlaciallake
ObservedImpacts…
 Climatechangeandwomen
Climatechangedisproportionatelyincreaseswomen’stimeburdens.
• Aftera floodingevent, women have to spendadditional time
collectingwater,cleaningtheirhome,andensuringfamilywell-
being.
• Coastalflooding may lead to increasedsalinizationof household
and businesswater sources,which is a particularproblem in
coastalareas.Asaresult,watersecurityandconflictwillbecome
biggerissuesand multiple agencieswill become involved.
• Withdroughts,womenneed
to spend more time and
calories on water collection
and suffer physical strains
from heavy loads.
• Aswater-borne orsanitation-
relatedillnessesincrease,so
dodemandsforwomen’stime
for familycare-giving.
 ImpactsofClimateChangeonFoodandNutriti
on
FOODSECURITYDIMENSION CONSEQUENCESOFCLIMATECHANGE
AVAILABILITY(sufficient  Reducedagriculturalproductioninsomeareaslocally
quantityof (especiallyattropicallatitudes)couldaffectdietarydiversity
foodforconsumption)  Changesinthesuitabilityoflandforcropproduction
 Changesinprecipitationpatternscouldaffectthe
sustainabilityofrain-fedagricultureinsomeareas
 Increasesintemperaturecouldleadtolongergrowing
seasonsin temperate regions and reducedfrost
damage
ACCESS(abilitytoobtainfood • Loweryieldsinsomeareascouldresultinhigherfood
regularly through own prices
productionorpurchase) • Lossofincomeduetothepotentialincreaseindamage
toagriculturalproduction
STABILITY(riskoflosingaccess • Instabilityoffoodsuppliesduetoanincreaseinextreme
to events
resourcesrequiredtoconsume • Instabilityofincomesfromagriculture
food)
UTILISATION(qualityandsafety • Foodsecurityandhealthimpactsincludeincreased
of malnutrition
food,includingnutrition • Abilitytoutilisefoodmightdecreasewherechanges
aspects) inclimateincreasedisease
• Impactonfoodsafetyduetochangesinpestsand water
pollution
 Climatechangechallengesanditsimpactonhe
alth andnutrition
Climate
change Impactonhealthandnutrition
Challenge
s
Changeinrainfall Cropdamageandreduceagricultureproduction,Decreasesthegrain
pattern qualityIncreasesfoodinsecurityathouseholdlevel.

Change in Hottertemperatureandrecurringdroughts,Exposuretoheatandincreasedworkloadonwomenin
temperature agricultureproductionandfetchingdrinkingwater Poor
nutritional status of mothers
Increase in Food insecurity,Increasein the incidencesof pre-mature
extreme weather birthsPrevalenceofstunting,wastingandunder-nutrition
events like floods increasesDrought has been found associated with
and droughts stunting
Spreadofdiseases Vector-bornediseasesareonasignificantincreaseowingtochangesintemperature,rainfall,humidity
andwaterloggingandaffectingchildrenareMalaria,Dengue,KalaAzarandJapaneseEncephalitis

Drinkingwater Handpumps duringtheflood,getdrowned,siltedupwhichultimatelyaffectstheaccessibilityofsafe

andsanitation drinkingwaterduringthestressperiod.Depletionof groundwaterandwatertableduringsummer

Waterlogging Theproblemofwaterloggingafterthefloodorextreme rainfallcreatesstagnantpoolswhichareused by

andwater quality localpeoplefor drinking,washingand defecatingas thereare no alternateoptions.
India:climatechangeimpactonEducation…
•Schoolabsenteeism anddrop-outarehigher inflood-proneareas;inhibits
completion of school programs; closure of at least one-and-a-half months
dueto flooding.

•Climate related disasters such as floods, landslides, have destroyed

schoolinfrastructures. Reconstruction and refurbishment incur huge
costsat theexpense of continuity of education.

• Migrationduetolossoflivelihoodinclimate-change-affectedareastakes
children away from schools.

•Interrupted and/or impeded access to education has a detrimental impact

onlearning outcomes, reducing the likelihood that children and young
people–especially girls–will beable tobreakthe cycle ofpoverty.
India:climatechangeimpactonEducationasperceive
d

•Impactsin the directeffects on educational provision(schooling and

regularnutrition throughmiddaymeal)duetoincreasingincidenceof
severe weatherevents(drought,flooding, cyclones, heatwaves).

•Overthe longer term,incrementalenvironmental changes (e.g. sea

levelchange,salination,changesinseasonpatterns,desertification, soil
erosion,speciesloss, etc.)are likely toresultin deteriorating
livelihoods, which impactupon both household expenditureon
schooling and the nutritional status ofchildren.

•Emergencyresponsestoextremeweathereventsandtheiraftermath
thushave thepotential toundermineinvestment in improvingthe quality
ofeducation.
ImpactonWASHsector
 SlowOnsetImpacts…
 Glacialmeltwithincreasedthreatof
GLOF
 Agricultureproductivitydiminishing
 Oceanacidification
 Increaseddesertificationreducing
areasunder cultivation

Migration

Income/Economy Livelihoods
 PossibleEffectsofClimateChangeasTempRises

EventualTemperatureRiseRelativetoPre-IndustrialTemperatures

Type ofImpact 1°C 2°C 3°C 4°C 5°C

FreshwaterSupplies SmallglaciersintheAndes Potentialwatersupply Seriousdroughtsin Potentialwatersupply LargeglaciersinHimalayas

disappear,threatening decrease of 20–30% in southernEuropeevery10 decreaseof30–50%in possiblydisappear,affecting
watersupplies for 50 someregions(Southern years 1–4 billion more southernAfricaand ¼ofChina’spopulation
millionpeople Africaand peoplesufferwater Mediterranean
Mediterranean) shortages

FoodandAgriculture Modestincreaseinyieldsin Declines in crop yieldsin 150–550 millionmore Yieldsdeclineby15–35% Increaseinoceanacidity

temperature regions tropicalregions(5–10%in peopleatriskofhunger in Africa Some entire possiblyreducesfishstocks
Africa) Yieldslikely to peak at regionsoutofagricultural
higherlatitudes production

At least 300,000 die each 40–60 millionmore 1–3 millionmore Up to 80 million more Furtherdiseaseincreaseand
HumanHealth yearfromclimate–related potentiallypeopledie peopleexposedtomalaria substantialburdenson
exposedtomalariain
diseases Africa annuallyfrom inAfrica healthcare services
Reductioninwinter malnutrition
mortalityinhighlatitudes

Coastal Areas Increaseddamagefrom Up to 10 million more Up to 170 million more Up to 300 million more Sea-levelrisethreatensmajor
coastalflooding peopleexposedtocoastal peopleexposedtocoastal peopleexposedtocoastal citiessuch as New York,
flooding flooding flooding Tokyo, and London

Atleast10%oflandspecies 15–40% of species 20–50% of species Loss of half of Arctic Significant

Ecosystems facing extinction Increased potentiallyfaceextinction potentiallyfaceextinction tundraWidespreadloss extinctionsacrosstheglobe
wildfirerisk Possibleonset of collapse ofcoral reefs
of Amazon forest

Sources:IPCC,2007b;Stern,2007.
 IncreasingDamagesfromRisingGlobalTemperatures

ProjectedDamages
14

12
Damages(%globalGDP)

10
DICE
CRED
8
Model

4
ENVISAGE
Model
2

-2
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Global meantem peratur erise
(°Cabovepre-industriallevels)

Source:R.Revesz,K.Arrowetal.,2014.
http://www.nature.com/news/global-warming-improve-economic-models-of-climate-change-1.14991
Note:The threedifferent models(ENVISAGE,DICE,and CRED)shown inthisfiguregivedamageestimatesthat aresimilar at lowto moderatelevelsof temperaturechange,
butdivergeathigherlevels,reflecting differentassumptions usedinmodeling.
 Distributionofvulnerability
Year2050
9Severevulnerability
7Moderate
6Moderate
5Modest
4Modest
3Little
2 Little
Nodata
Year
2100
10Extreme
9Severe
8Serious
7Moderate
6Moderate
5ModestNodata
 Thankyou!
Dr.AnwarAliKhan
NodalOfficerClimatechangeCell Dept. of
Environment Delhi
Email:-envanwar@gmail.com