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New Thinking about the Taiwan Issue
The “Taiwan question” has long been considered one of the most complicated
and explosive issues in global politics. In recent years, however, relations
between Taiwan and the Chinese mainland have improved substantially to the
surprise of many. In this ground-breaking collection, distinguished contributors
from the US, Asia, and Europe seek to go beyond the standard “recitation of
facts” that often characterizes studies focusing on the Beijing–Taipei dyad.
Rather, they employ a variety of theories as well as both quantitative and quali-
tative methodologies to analyze the ebbs and flows of the Taiwan issue. Their
discussions clearly illuminate why there is a “Taiwan Problem,” why conflict did
not escalate to war between 2000 and 2008, and why cross-Strait relations
improved after 2008. The book further reveals the limits of realism as a device
to gain traction into the Taiwan issue, demonstrates the importance of taking into
account domestic political variables, and shows how theory can be used to
advance the cause of better China–Taiwan relations and to analyze the potential
for future conflict over Taiwan.
New Thinking about the Taiwan Issue is essential reading not only for stu-
dents, scholars, and practitioners with an interest in studying relations across the
Taiwan Strait, but also for any reader interested in economics, international rela-
tions, comparative politics, or political theory.
Jean-Marc F. Blanchard is Associate Professor in the Department of Interna-

tional Relations at San Francisco State University (SFSU), Associate Director of
the SFSU Center for U.S.–China Policy Studies, and President of the Associa-
tion of Chinese Political Studies.
Dennis V. Hickey is the director of the graduate program in global studies and
the James F. Morris Endowed Professor of Political Science at Missouri State
University, USA.
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Michael R.J. Vatikiotis Michael Yahuda
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New Thinking about the
Taiwan Issue
Theoretical insights into its origins,
dynamics, and prospects
Edited by Jean-Marc F. Blanchard and

Dennis V. Hickey
First published 2012
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Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
New thinking about the Taiwan issue: theoretical insights into its origins,
dynamics, and prospects/edited by Jean-Marc F. Blanchard, Dennis V.
Hickey.
p. cm. – (Politics in Asia series)
Includes bibliographical references and index.
1. Taiwan–Foreign relations–China. 2. China–Foreign relations–
Taiwan. 3. Taiwan–Foreign relations–1945– I. Blanchard, Jean-Marc
F., 1962– II. Hickey, Dennis Van Vranken. III. Series: Politics in Asia
series.
DS799.63.C6N49 2012
327.5124′9051–dc23
2011032311
ISBN: 978-0-415-68453-8 (hbk)
ISBN: 978-0-203-13149-7 (ebk)
Typeset in Times
by Wearset Ltd, Boldon, Tyne and Wear
Contents
List of figures and tables xi

Contributors xii
Acknowledgments xvi
Introduction: more than two “sides” to every story: an

introduction to New Thinking about the Taiwan Issue 1
J ean - M arc F . B lanchard and D ennis V . H ickey
1 Normative convergence and cross-Strait divergence:

Westphalian sovereignty as an ideational source of the
Taiwan conflict 28
C hengxin P an
2 Useful adversaries: how to understand the political economy

of cross-Strait security 48
C hing - C hang C hen
3 Ethnic peace in the Taiwan Strait 71

S hiping Z heng
4 Unbalanced threat or rising integration? Explaining

relations across the Taiwan Strait 92
S teve C han
5 Informal and nonofficial interactions in the new start of

cross-Strait relations: the case of Taiwanese businessmen 116
J orge T avares da S ilva
6 Structural realism and liberal pluralism: an assessment of

Ma Ying-Jeou’s cross-Strait policy 137
T . Y . W ang , S u - F eng C heng , C hing - hsin Y u ,
and L u - huei C hen
x Contents
7 Envisioning a China–Taiwan peace agreement 153
P hillip C . S aunders and S cott L . K astner
8 “Democratic peace” or “economic peace”? Theoretical

debate and practical implications in new cross-Strait
relations 172
Y uchao Z hu
Conclusion: international relations theory and the

relationship across the Taiwan Strait 189
S cott L . K astner
Bibliography 202
Index 229
Figures and tables
Figures
5.1 General framework of formal and informal relationships in the
Strait of Taiwan 124
C.1 A simple model of war in the Taiwan Strait 195
Tables
2.1 Trade interdependence between Taiwan and the PRC, 1987–2002 51
2.2 Taiwan’s outbound investment by destination, 1991–2000 53
3.1 International wars/conflicts since 1973 73
3.2 Military (im)balance in the Taiwan Strait 77
6.1 Distributions of responses on the pace of cross-Strait
interaction 142
6.2 Taiwan citizens’ concern about increasing economic
dependence on China by party ID 143
6.3 Distributions of responses on cross-Strait economic exchange 143
6.4 Distributions of responses on cross-Strait cconomic exchange
by party ID 144
6.5 Taiwan citizens’ support for attending the WHA under the
designation of “Chinese Taipei” 146
6.6 Taiwan citizens’ positions on participating in UN-affiliated
agencies but no bidding for UN membership 146
6.7 Partisan differences on participating in UN-affiliated agencies
but no bidding for UN membership 147
6.8 Taiwan citizens’ positions on the importance of diplomatic ties
vs. cross-Strait relations 147
6.9 Taiwan citizens’ positions on the conflict between developing
diplomatic ties and cross-Strait relations 148
A6.1 Schedule of focus group interviews 149
A6.2 List of focus group participants 150
7.1 Potential parties to an agreement 155
7.2 Possible forms of an agreement 157
Contributors
Jean-Marc F. Blanchard is Associate Professor in the Department of Interna-

tional Relations at San Francisco State University (SFSU), Associate Director
of the SFSU Center for U.S.–China Policy Studies, and President of the Asso-
ciation of Chinese Political Studies. He also is a member of the Editorial
Board for the Journal of Chinese Political Studies. Aside from this book, he
is a co-editor of and contributor to Multidimensional Diplomacy of Contem-
porary China (2010), Harmonious World and China’s New Foreign Policy
(2008), and Power and the Purse (2000). He has authored or co-authored
nearly thirty book chapters and refereed articles in leading journals.
Steve Chan is College Professor of Distinction at the University of Colorado,
Boulder. His research interests include power-transition and balance-of-power
theories, democratic peace theory, and economic statecraft. He has published
in journals such as the American Political Science Review, International Stud-
ies Quarterly, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Security Studies, and World
Politics. The most recent of his fifteen books is Looking for Balance: China,
the United States, and Power Balancing in East Asia (2012). In 2009, he
received the Sasakawa Peace Foundation Award as well as the Distinguished
Scholar Award of the Foreign Policy Analysis Section of the International
Studies Association.
Ching-Chang Chen is an assistant professor at the College of Asia Pacific Stud-
ies, Ritsumeikan Asia Pacific University, Japan, and holds a Ph.D. degree in
International Politics from Aberystwyth University, Wales. His main research
focuses on the identity function of international relations (IR) theorizing and
the development of “non-Western” IR in Asia. He is currently working on a
book manuscript which investigates how the “China threat theory” has per-
sisted in Taiwan and why. Dr. Chen’s recent articles can be found in Issues &
Studies, Journal of Chinese Political Science, and International Relations of
the Asia-Pacific.
Lu-huei Chen is Research Fellow and Director of Election Study Center at
National Chengchi University in Taiwan. He is the editor of the Journal of
Electoral Studies (Chinese). Professor Chen’s research focuses on Taiwanese
Contributors xiii
political behavior, political socialization, research methods, and cross-Strait
relations. He has published articles in such scholarly journals as Issues &
Studies, Journal of Electoral Studies (Chinese), Social Science Quarterly, and
Taiwan Political Science Review (Chinese). His most recent publications
include “Between Principle and Pragmatism,” Taiwan Political Science
Review (Chinese) (co-authored, 2009), and “Interest-Driven or Identity-
Based?” Soochow Journal of Political Science (Chinese) (co-authored, 2009).
Su-Feng Cheng is Associate Research Fellow at Election Study Center, National
Chengchi University. Her research interests include survey methods, voting
behavior, and public opinion. Her recent publications are: “Ethnic, Identity,
and Vote Choice in Taiwan” (2009), “Taiwanese Blue-Green Party Identifica-
tion and the Participation in the Redshirts Protest” (2009), “Deep-Green Sup-
porters and Political Tolerance in Taiwan” (2009), “Campaign Events and
Political Trust” (2008), “Examining Strategic Voting in Single-Member Dis-
tricts” (2008), “Voters’ Cognition and Evaluation of New Electoral System”
(2008), “A Preliminary Study on Deep-Green Voters” (2007), and “Voting
Behavior and Electoral Engineering in Taiwan” (2007).
Jorge Tavares da Silva holds a degree in international trade at ISCIA (Instituto
Superior de Ciências de Informação e Administração), Aveiro (Portugal) and
was a lecturer at ISCIA from 2006 to 2007, where he directed the Observa-
tory of Trade and International Relations. He has authored several articles on
Chinese politics and economy. At present he is a doctoral candidate in inter-
national politics and conflict resolution at the School of Economics of the
University of Coimbra (Portugal). His doctoral research is about non-
governmental interactions across the Strait of Taiwan, supported by the FCT
(the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology).
Dennis V. Hickey is the director of the graduate program in global studies and
the James F. Morris Endowed Professor of Political Science at Missouri State
University. He is the sole author of four books, over 50 scholarly journal arti-
cles on issues relating to the United States, Taiwan, and the Chinese mainland
and op-eds in newspapers ranging from the Wall Street Journal to the China
Daily. His most recent journal article, “Rapprochement between Taiwan and
the Chinese Mainland: Implications for American Foreign Policy,” was pub-
lished by The Journal of Contemporary China in March 2011.
Scott L. Kastner is an Associate Professor in the Department of Government
and Politics, University of Maryland, College Park. He graduated from Cor-
nell University (1995), and received his Ph.D. in Political Science from the
University of California, San Diego (2003). His book, Political Conflict and
Economic Interdependence across the Taiwan Strait and Beyond, was pub-
lished in the Studies in Asian Security series by Stanford University Press
(2009). His work has also appeared in journals such as International Security,
Journal of Conflict Resolution, International Studies Quarterly, Comparative
Political Studies, Security Studies, and Journal of Peace Research.
xiv Contributors
Chengxin Pan is Lecturer in International Relations at Deakin University, Aus-
tralia, and holds a Ph.D. in Political Science and International Relations from
the Australian National University. He was a visiting scholar at the University
of Melbourne and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. His
research interests include China’s international relations, Western representa-
tions of China, the Taiwan question, and traditional Chinese thought on inter-
national relations. His publications have appeared in several edited books and
a number of refereed international journals including Alternatives, Journal of
Chinese Political Science, Journal of Contemporary China, Pacific Review,
Political Science, and The China Review.
Phillip C. Saunders is a Distinguished Research Fellow at the Center for Strate-
gic Research, part of National Defense University’s Institute for National
Strategic Studies. He also serves as Director of the Center for the Study of
Chinese Military Affairs. Dr. Saunders previously worked at the Monterey
Institute of International Studies, where he served as Director of the East Asia
Nonproliferation Program from 1999–2003. Dr. Saunders has published
numerous articles and book chapters on China and Asian security issues. He
attended Harvard College and received his MPA and Ph.D. in International
Relations from the Woodrow Wilson School at Princeton University.
T.Y. Wang is Professor of Political Science at Illinois State University. He is
currently the co-editor of the Journal of Asian and African Studies and was
the Coordinator of the Conference Group of Taiwan Studies (CGOTS) of the
American Political Science Association. Professor Wang’s current research
focuses on Taiwanese national identity, cross-Strait relations, Chinese poli-
tics, U.S. policy towards China and Taiwan and research methodology. He
has published articles in such scholarly journals as American Political Sci-
ence Review, Asian Survey, International Studies Quarterly, Issues & Studies,
Journal of Peace Research, Political Research Quarterly and Social Science
Quarterly.
Ching-Hsin Yu is Research Fellow at the Election Study Center of National
Chengchi University, Taipei, Taiwan. He earned his Ph.D. from the Pennsyl-
vania State University. His research interests include the theories of parties
and party system, electoral system, voting behavior, and democratization. His
recent publications include “Disproportionality Under the Mixed-member
System in Taiwan’s Legislative Election of 2008” (2009), “How to Evaluate
the Political Impacts of Redistricting” (2008), “Administrative Performance
and Voter Choices” (2008), “New Voters’ Political Attitudes and the Future
of Taiwan’s Democracy” (2007), “A Review of Taiwan’s Political Develop-
ment in 2005” (2006), and “Single Member District and Proportional Repre-
sentation System” (2006).
Shiping Zheng is Professor of Political Science in the Global Studies Depart-
ment of Bentley University. Dr. Zheng has received his M.A. in international
politics from Fudan University and his Ph.D. in political science from Yale
Contributors xv
University. Dr. Zheng has served as the chair of the International Studies
Department and has also been a visiting scholar at Harvard University,
McGill University, Shanghai International Studies University and a visiting
senior fellow at the East Asian Institute of the National University of Singa-
pore. Dr. Zheng’s research interests include U.S.–China relations, cross-
Taiwan Strait relations, international relations theories, and Chinese politics
and foreign policy.
Yuchao Zhu received his Ph.D. from Queen’s University (Canada) in 1996. He
taught political science at the Royal Military College of Canada, UBC Okana-
gan Campus and Queen’s University from 1995 to 1999. He is currently an
Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of
Regina, Canada. His research focuses on China’s political and legal reform,
ethnic issues, and foreign policy. He has published articles in The Pacific
Review, Journal of Contemporary China, Development and Change, Issues &
Studies, Nationalism and Ethnic Politics, American Journal of Chinese Studies,
American Review of China Studies, and Canadian Foreign Policy.
Acknowledgments
Jean-Marc F. Blanchard would like to thank the attendees at the 2009 Associa-
tion of Chinese Political Studies (ACPS)–National Chengchi University (Taipei)
International Symposium on “Peaceful Development and Deepening Integration
in the Greater China Region.” The intellectual inspiration for this volume as well
as several of the contributions in it profited from this symposium. In addition,
Dr. Blanchard would like to thanks Professor Guo Baogang, former ACPS Presi-
dent, for his assistance in conceptualizing the volume as well as in recruiting
contributors. Furthermore, Dr. Blanchard wishes to thank Dr. Sujian Guo, editor-
in-chief of the ACPS’s Journal of Chinese Political Science for facilitating per-
missions for some of the works in this book. As well, Dr. Blanchard would like
to express his appreciation to his co-editor Dr. Dennis Hickey whose considera-
ble expertise in China–Taiwan studies and Taiwan politics helped to ensure the
preparation of a cutting-edge work. Finally, Dr. Blanchard would like to thank
the editors at Routledge for their assistance in making this a smooth process and
express his appreciation to Lenny and Linda for lubricating the writing process.
Dennis V. Hickey would like to thank his wife, Cheng-May, for her patience
and support while he worked on this project. He would also like to express his
deepest thanks to the Chiang Ching-kuo Foundation for International Scholarly
Exchange, the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy and Missouri State University.
Without their generous support, he would not have been able to travel to Taiwan
and the Chinese mainland on several occasions or complete this and other
projects. The ROC Government Information Office helped arrange interviews
with scholars and officials in Taiwan, and Dr. Hickey is most grateful for this
assistance. Finally, Dr. Hickey would like to thank friends and colleagues in
Beijing, Shanghai, Taipei, and elsewhere for their constructive criticism and
advice.
Introduction
More than two “sides” to every story:
an introduction to New Thinking about the
Taiwan Issue
Jean-Marc F. Blanchard and Dennis V. Hickey
Introduction
The “Taiwan question” has long been considered one of the most complicated
issues in global politics. For Beijing, the matter constitutes a “core interest,”
with it contending “national reunification” is the “sacrosanct mission” of the
Chinese people. The Taiwan issue was the source of international crises in 1954
and 1958 and, perhaps, near war in 1995/1996.1 Furthermore, the Taiwan ques-
tion affects the prospects for and forms of Asia-Pacific Region (APR) integra-
tion. It also influences dynamics in the United Nations (UN), China’s relations
with major states such as America and Japan and the foreign policies of other-
wise obscure states around the globe.2 Since 2008, however, an issue once char-
acterized by tension and conflict has seemingly stabilized. For example, a
far-reaching cross-Strait economic agreement was inked in June 2010. More
over, cross-Strait people-to-people ties have exploded. And much of the harsh
rhetoric of past years has disappeared. Yet, as detailed below, Beijing will not
abandon its threat to use force or reduce its military deployments directed against
Taipei.
The aforementioned facts raise a host of interesting questions for academics
and practitioners who study the cross-Strait policies of Beijing and Taipei. For
instance, why does Beijing care so much about Taiwan? On a related note, what
drives conflict between the two sides (after all each side has peaceful options at
its disposal) and serves to intensify or dampen such tensions? In regards to
Beijing, some have pointed to different identities and misperceptions.3 With
respect to Taipei, some have highlighted the drift to independence, the deterrent
role of players such as the United States (US), or improved understanding by
one or both sides of the expected utility (or lack thereof ) of particular policies.4
Yet another uncertainty is the potential for future conflict, particularly war. Some
see little prospect for high-intensity clashes, while others express deep concerns.5
Finally, the persistence of the Taiwan question highlights the need for options to
prevent conflict and facilitate a peaceful resolution of the Taiwan issue.6
Most studies on the Taiwan issue deliver extensive factual content. While
invaluable, such works tend to become outdated over time.7 As well, they do
not draw upon the insights of or contribute to wider debates in political science
2 J.-M.F. Blanchard and D.V. Hickey
such as those pertaining to the causes of war, domestic sources of foreign
policy, or the political economy of national security.8 More theoretically ori-
ented works often are narrowly focused or use theory only occasionally.9 To
surmount these limitations, the editors of this volume have compiled outstand-
ing papers from two international conferences. The first was a June 2009 Asso-
ciation of Chinese Political Studies (ACPS) conference cohosted with National
Chengchi University (Taipei). The second was a conference entitled, “Taiwan
and The Chinese Mainland: Cross-Strait Relations in a Time of Transition,”
hosted by Missouri State University in October 2009. The papers selected for
inclusion into this volume enable us to take a more comprehensive look at the
Taiwan question as well as allow us to do so from diverse methodological and
theoretical perspectives.
The discussion below provides readers with a foundation that will enable
them to better appreciate the theoretically guided case chapters included in this
volume. First, we discuss the salience of the Taiwan issue for the People’s
Republic of China (PRC) and examine cross-Strait relations from 1949 to 2008.
Next, we describe the current state of relations and how they have changed since
the election of Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou. Additional background is pro-
vided by a discussion of American perspectives on the warming of cross-Strait
ties and an analysis of the political economy of mainland China relations from a
theoretical standpoint. Then, we provide brief abstracts of each of the volume’s
various chapters. Finally, we summarize inter alia the discussion, expound on
possible future directions for future research, and offer some concluding
remarks.
The salience of Taiwan issue to China

Once taking the position that Taiwan is not part of China, the Chinese Commu-
nist Party (CCP) reversed its position after gaining power and has since claimed
that Taiwan is Chinese territory.10 In 1993, Beijing released a white paper enti-
tled “The Taiwan Question and the Reunification of China,” arguing that
“Taiwan has belonged to China since ancient times.”11 According to the report,
“Chinese governments of differing periods set up administrative bodies to exer-
cise jurisdiction over Taiwan” and China always strived to “ward off foreign
invaders” until the Qing government was “forced” to give Taiwan to Japan.12
Moreover, Beijing firmly rejects any suggestion that Taiwan’s international
status is somehow unsettled. The white paper claims the island “was returned to
China de jure and de facto at the end of the Second World War.”13
When discussing the “origin of the Taiwan question,” the PRC claims that,
after the Republic of China (ROC) government in Nanjing was “finally over-
thrown by the Chinese people” in 1949, the PRC became the sole, legal govern-
ment of all China (including Taiwan). At that moment, however, “a group of
military and political officials of the Kuomintang (KMT) clique took refuge in
Taiwan and, with the support of the then US administration, created the division
between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits.”14 According to Beijing, the
Introduction 3
authorities on Taiwan are not a government. In 2000, the PRC released another
white paper entitled, “The One-China Principle and the Taiwan Issue.” It argues
that, “since the KMT ruling clique retreated to Taiwan, although its regime has
continued to use the designations ‘ROC’ and ‘government of the ROC,’ it has
long since completely forfeited its right to exercise state sovereignty on behalf of
China and, in reality, has always remained only a local authority in Chinese ter-
ritory.”15 As Dr. Ding Kuisong, then Director of North American Studies at the
China Institute of Contemporary International Relations in Beijing, stressed
during a 1998 interview with one of the editors, “the ROC doesn’t exist.”16
At first blush, the PRC position might strike some as absurd given Taiwan’s
more than 50 year existence outside the mainland’s grasp. It is noteworthy,
however, that the leadership in Taipei maintains a similar stance toward the gov-
ernment in Beijing. In fact, it claims that “mainland China is part of the territory
of the ROC.”17 In short, Taipei contends that the government in Beijing does not
exist—a position that the island’s independence activists blast as “total non-
sense.”18 It is also noteworthy that the government in Taipei rejects claims by
independence groups that suggest that the island’s international status is
undetermined.19
PRC unification proposals have changed significantly since the 1950s. But
Beijing’s bottom line remains that Taiwan is Chinese territory and it is deter-
mined to prevent the island from ever achieving de jure independence. A cursory
glance at a Chinese Embassy website serves to underscore this point:
Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s sovereign territory, whose tempo-

rary separation from the mainland is a leftover of the . . . Civil War. . . . The
Chinese government’s stand on Taiwan Issue has never changed, that is,
Taiwan is part of the sacred territory of the People’s Republic of China. We
stick to one-China position and adhere to peaceful reunification of China in
the light of “One country, two systems.” It is the inviolable duty of all
Chinese people, including our compatriots in Taiwan, to accomplish the
great task of reunifying the motherland.20
As Senator Fred Thompson (R.-Tennessee), observed, it is difficult for many

people to understand “why a little, small place like Taiwan would be so impor-
tant to the People’s Republic of China.”21 Numerous explanations have been
advanced in an effort to understand the PRC’s position toward the Taiwan
issue.22
Beijing has long argued that the restoration of China’s territorial integrity is
the driving force behind its irredentist claims to Taiwan. As Michael Swaine
observed, “Beijing regards the eventual reunification of China and Taiwan as
essential to China’s recovery from a century of national weakness, vulnerability,
and humiliation, and to its emergence as a respected great power.”23 Indeed,
many Chinese view Taiwan’s separation from the mainland as a nagging
reminder of the so-called “century of humiliation.”24 In 1895, Japan “stole”
Taiwan from China and, although the island was returned to China in 1945,
“certain foreign forces who do not want to see a reunified China have gone out
of their way to meddle in China’s internal affairs”25 and keep the island separate
from the mainland. In the PRC’s view, “it is the sacred right of each and every
sovereign state and a fundamental principle of international law to safeguard
national unity and territorial integrity.”26 Thus, “national reunification” is a “sac-
rosanct mission.”27
Also relevant is the impact that independence could have on restive areas in
the mainland such as Xinjiang and Tibet. Beijing’s acceptance of Taiwan’s inde-
pendence could legitimate the principle of ethnic self-determination, among
other things, increasing challenges for Chinese policymakers not only in the
aforementioned two provinces but elsewhere.28 As Chiang Wego, the late son of
ROC President Chiang Kai-shek, observed, “if Taiwan can be independent, Tibet
can be independent, Xinjiang can be independent, Inner Mongolia can be inde-
pendent—the whole country could fall apart.”29 At a minimum, Taiwan’s inde-
pendence would intensify demands for greater autonomy in areas that China
possesses as well as empower foreign territorial claimants who assert territorial
rights on the basis of a distinct history, continuous sovereignty, and so on.
Others contend that Taiwan’s strategic importance is the true reason behind
Beijing’s claims. Some US government studies observe the PRC’s acquisition of
Taiwan could yield access to shipping lanes or oil and gas resources. A recent
article in Foreign Affairs suggested that the acquisition of Taiwan would funda-
mentally alter the security equation in the Western Pacific: “If Taiwan returned
to the bosom of mainland China, the Chinese navy not only would suddenly be
in an advantageous strategic position vis-à-vis the first island chain but also
would be freed up to project power beyond it to an unprecedented degree.”30 On
a related note, PRC military officials contend that possession of Taiwan would
hinder efforts by unfriendly forces to use the island as a “gateway” to bully
China. During its occupation of the island, Japan described Taiwan as an
“unsinkable aircraft carrier.”31 General Douglas MacArthur later echoed this
view, further labeling Taiwan a “submarine tender.”32
Still others point to Taiwan’s economic prowess as a critical factor. Accord-
ing to Beijing, “after national reunification the two sides of the Taiwan Strait can
pool their resources and make common cause in economic development and
work towards China’s resurgence.”33 Despite Taiwan’s small size, this is not an
exaggeration. In 2008, the island was the world’s eighteenth largest trader,
twenty-sixth largest economy and fourth largest holder of foreign exchange
reserves.34 Moreover, assuming Beijing secured the island largely intact, the
mainland would inherit Taiwan’s advanced technology, an educated workforce,
and its managerial and production expertise.35
There are other hypotheses. Some point to the role of “bureaucratic politics”
in decision making and suspect that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has an
interest in keeping the “Taiwan issue” alive as it justifies annual double-digit
increases in defense outlays and ensures that the military retains a voice in policy
making. Others contend that domestic political considerations are a driving
force. Nationalism and economic prosperity have replaced the communist
Introduction 5
ideology as the regime’s primary source of legitimacy. According to Susan
Shirk, a prominent China specialist, “it is widely believed in China that any gov-
ernment that lost Taiwan would fall.”36 Indeed, Deng Xiaoping reportedly
claimed that a Chinese government that acquiesced to Taiwan’s independence
would be forced to step down from power.
Finally, some believe that Taipei remains a “rival” to the Beijing regime and
perhaps even a threat to its legitimacy. Although Taipei abandoned plans to
“retake” the mainland long ago, it continues to threaten the regime in other ways.
Some prominent Chinese dissidents, while supporting peaceful reunification,
have argued that it should be achieved on Taipei’s terms. As Bao Tong, a former
aide to ousted CCP Secretary Zhao Ziyang, explained, “only peaceful reunifica-
tion on the basis of democracy will bring happiness to compatriots on both sides
of the Taiwan Strait.”37 American leaders also have praised the island’s democ-
racy and described Taiwan as a “model” for political reform and freedom in
China.38 In this light, Taiwan is not only an unsinkable carrier from a military
standpoint, but also an unsinkable carrier of competing ideas and values.39
Irrespective of the merits of the aforementioned hypotheses, Chinese at the
elite and popular level perceive Taiwan as an integral part of China. The issue
may be shelved or creatively side-stepped temporarily. It could even conceivably
simmer below the surface for quite some time. However, Taiwan will remain the
most sensitive issue for Beijing.
Taiwan–China relations, 1947–2008

Joseph S.C. Hua, Deputy Director-General of the ROC Mainland Affairs Council
(MAC) Department of Planning, aptly observed that “it is very difficult to char-
acterize the cross-Strait relationship in one word or a few sentences.”40 Even so,
for the period between 1949 and 2008, “relations have gone through several
stages of development [with] hot war, cold war and cold peace up until 2008.” 41
The discussion below briefly examines each of these stages in cross-Strait
relations.
Phase one: hot war, 1949–1976

When the KMT retreated to Taiwan in 1949, the PRC proclaimed its intention to
“liberate” the island. Indeed, at various times, the CCP authorities engaged in
provocative saber rattling—threatening to “wash the island in blood.” Blocked
from invading Taiwan by the injection of the US Navy in the Strait at the out-
break of the Korean War and lacking other means to assert its claim to Taiwan,
the PRC responded militarily to ROC attacks on the mainland and deepening
US–Taiwan military and political cooperation. The first manifestation was the
1954–1955 Offshore Island Crisis, which involved the PLA’s shelling of ROC-
held islands off the Chinese coast, the PLA’s seizure of the Dazhen Islands, and
American nuclear threats against the mainland. The second was the more explo-
sive 1958 Taiwan Strait Crisis, which was similar to the 1954 Crisis, but differed
in the deployment of atomic capable American howitzers on the offshore islands
and the possible involvement of the Soviet Union.42
After the 1954–1955 Crisis, the CCP leadership promised to strive for the
“peaceful liberation” of Taiwan “as far as it is possible.” Nonetheless, the
“armed liberation” of Taiwan remained the cornerstone of PRC policy during
this period.43 This said, a CCP Politburo decision of May 1960 indicated Beijing
was willing, in return for unification, to grant Taiwan substantial political, eco-
nomic, and social autonomy at this point, with Beijing only requiring control
over foreign policy.44 As well, the main struggle between Taiwan and the main-
land transpired in the global court of diplomatic recognition and battle for mem-
bership of international organizations.45
For its part, the ROC’s mainland policy followed a similar trajectory. Almost
all of President Chiang’s efforts were geared toward “the goal of recovering the
mainland and unifying the country under his leadership . . . practically all his dip-
lomatic moves and all his political initiatives were subordinated to this objec-
tive.”46 The Generalissimo considered his presence in Taiwan only temporary
and often referred to Taipei as “the wartime capital” of the ROC. He ordered his
military to conduct guerilla raids on the mainland and sought unsuccessfully to
secure American military support for a full-scale invasion that would “liberate”
the “enslaved” population of China.
Phase two: cold war, 1976–1996

Chairman Mao Zedong’s Taiwan policy, which consisted largely of harassment,
threats, and harsh rhetoric, yielded few, if any, dividends for the PRC. Following
his death in 1976, PRC policy toward Taiwan began to change. In 1979, Deng
Xiaoping called for “three contacts and four exchanges.”47 In September 1981,
Ye Jianying, then chairman of the National People’s Congress (NPC), offered
Taipei a nine-point proposal to achieve the peaceful reunification of China. The
most important point in the proposal was its pledge to allow Taiwan to “maintain
a high degree of autonomy as a special administrative region.” In line with this,
the island would be allowed to have its own flag, armed forces, and constitution.
Moreover, private property rights would be protected. Perhaps most intriguing,
ROC government officials would be allowed to “take up posts of leadership” in
the PRC government. Deng soon labeled Ye’s plan as “one country, two
systems.”48
PRC officials would not rule out the use of force to take Taiwan.49 However,
the “one country, two systems” approach to unification certainly represented a
sharp departure from past policy and placed Taiwan in an awkward position.
Although Taipei was suspicious, it did not want to appear unreasonable. Conse-
quently, the KMT regime announced it would continue to pursue the official
policy of the “three no’s (san bu),” meaning no contacts, no negotiations, and no
compromises, until the PRC met two preconditions for negotiations: specifically
it had to renounce communism and accept Sun Yat-sen’s Three Principles of the
People (san min zhuyi).50
Introduction 7
Beijing rejected Taipei’s preconditions for talks as unreasonable. However,
the frosty relations between the two sides began to thaw. Perhaps most impor-
tant, Chiang Ching-kuo, Taiwan’s president, opted to legalize indirect trade and
transportation links with the mainland in 1987. He hoped that a policy of engage-
ment with the PRC might lead one day to meaningful political and economic
reforms on the mainland.51 Coupled with Beijing’s new policies, this initiative
helped lay the groundwork for an explosion in cross-Strait links, joint member-
ship in the Asian Development Bank (ADB), and joint participation in the Olym-
pics.52 A new era in PRC–ROC relations had arrived.
Phase three: cold peace, 1988–2008

During the administrations of President Lee Teng-hui (1988–2000) and Presi-
dent Chen Shui-bian (2000–2008), cross-Strait economic and social interactions
exploded. What makes this phenomenon particularly interesting is that economic
and social integration accelerated after cross-Strait communication, manifested
in dialogues between the PRC Association for Relations across the Strait
(ARATS) and Taiwan Strait Exchange Foundation (SEF ), was suspended in
1995 and political frictions heated up between 1995 and 2008.53
Trade ties between the mainland and the PRC illustrate this paradox. In 1988,
total trade was only US$4.23 billion. Five years later it hit US$15.0 billion. By
1998, it had soared to $23.7 billion. At the time of the 2000 Taiwan presidential
election, it totaled US$31.2 billion. Four years later it hit $65.7 billion and by
2008 it had rocketed to $105.3 billion. Cross-Strait foreign direct investment
(FDI) also showed an impressive trend, though it was very much unidirectional.
From a modest amount totaling US$962 million in 1994, annual approved FDI
from Taiwan to the mainland reached US$2 billion in 1998 and US$2.6 billion
in 2000. Four years later, it was US$6.9 billion. In 2008, it hit US$10.69 billion.
That same year, accumulated Taiwan investment in the mainland reached US$75
billion. The number of Taiwanese tourist visits to the mainland exploded from
2.17 million visits in 1998 to 4.38 million visits in 2008 while mainland visitors
to Taiwan hit 288,511 in 2008 versus 138,561 in 2004.54
As described, a noteworthy political development was the aforementioned crea-
tion of SEF and ARATS in the 1990s. These entities provided a mechanism for
interaction, agreements, and the 1992 Consensus, which accepted that both sides
belonged to “one China,” without agreement on its meaning.55 Still, the foundation
for further political warming was weak—political reform had transformed Taiwan
into a democracy with new political dynamics.56 These new dynamics empowered
previously marginalized political actors (e.g., the Democratic Progressive Party
[DPP]) and ideologies (e.g., Taiwanese nationalism). In this new more competitive,
fluid milieu, President Lee put forth policies and statements about Taiwan that
rankled PRC leaders. These included greater emphasis on a Taiwan identity,
increased foreign arms purchases, and an intensified pursuit of international space.
Particularly offensive to Beijing was Lee’s 1999 state-to-state theory (teshu de guo
yu guo guanxi) characterizing cross-Strait relations.57
Although Chen Shui-bian promised not to declare independence at his 2000
presidential inauguration in Taipei, cross-Strait political relations went from bad
to worse during his administration. Chen, who rejected “one China” and “one
country, two systems” in favor of “one country on each side of the Strait” (yi
bian yi guo) orchestrated numerous “surprises” that outraged Beijing. These
moves included modifying the country’s passports, changing the name of Tai-
wan’s state corporations, using the education system to promote a greater Tai-
wanese identity, shelving the National Unification Guidelines and National
Unification Council, holding a series of controversial referendums, and the advo-
cacy of a new constitution. Perhaps most provocative was the 2008 campaign to
join the UN and other international governmental organizations as “Taiwan,” an
initiative that annoyed both Beijing and Washington.58
To be sure, Beijing adopted policies that helped stoke “anti-China” sentiment
on the island. For example, after President Lee visited Cornell University in
1995 as part of his “pragmatic diplomacy,” Beijing boycotted the ARATS–SEF
talks and staged a series of missile tests off Taiwan’s coastline. Moreover, the
campaign to isolate the ROC internationally escalated and the number of ballis-
tic missiles deployed directly opposite Taiwan soared to over 1,000. Indeed,
throughout the years of the Jiang Zemin presidency, Beijing released a series of
documents and “white papers” that seemed to be designed to bully the island’s
population into submission. Perhaps the most sensational of these was the “Anti-
Secession Law” that was approved by the NPC in March 2005.59
But it also appears that key elements in Beijing’s Taiwan policy were modified
after Hu Jintao became China’s top leader. Rather than call for “reunification”
under the banner of the “one country, two systems” formula, Hu began to push for
“the peaceful development of relations” and “the maintenance of the status quo.”
Perhaps equally significant, all talk of some sort of a “timetable” for reunification
was shelved, the meaning of the “one China principle” was softened, and PRC
leaders began to call for a “peace agreement” with Taiwan.60 During an interview
with one of the editors, President Chen dismissed Beijing’s softer policies as “sugar
coated poison.” He claimed that all changes in policy were “just part of China’s
‘united front tactics’ and ‘divide and conquer’ strategy.”61
Not everyone agreed with Chen’s assessment. Prominent Taiwanese lead-
ers—including Lien Chan—the KMT’s 2004 presidential candidate, claimed that
things had changed in the mainland and that Taiwan needed to recognize this
fact. During the 2008 presidential campaign, Ma, the KMT candidate, declared
that he would not promote China’s unification or Taiwan’s independence. He
explained that “the mainstream opinion in Taiwan supports maintenance of the
status quo.”62 However, Ma did pledge to seek out opportunities to improve ties
with the Chinese mainland. For starters, Ma promised to return to the 1992 Con-
sensus. As the next step, Ma said he would work toward a normalization of eco-
nomic relations. Once this was accomplished, Ma suggested that Taipei and
Beijing might be able to reach an understanding that would provide Taiwan with
more “international space.”63 Finally, Ma expressed hopes that the two sides
might eventually cobble together some sort of peace agreement.64
Introduction 9
Cross-Straits relations after Ma’s election to the ROC
presidency
In March 2008, KMT candidate Ma Ying-jeou won a resounding victory in the
Taiwan presidential election, garnering 58.45 percent of the vote to Frank
Hsieh’s (DPP) 41.55 percent share. Following his victory, Ma suggested that the
vote meant “Taiwan should be more open, more pragmatic, and should not
isolate itself.”65 The 2008 election also featured two referendums on whether
Taiwan should seek to join the UN. The referendums failed to pass.66 One month
after Ma’s election, PRC President Hu called for mainland–Taiwan relations to
be based on four principles: “building mutual trust, laying aside disputes, seeking
consensus and shelving differences, and creating a win–win situation.”67 He
called for efforts to seek peace and create a new situation for the peaceful devel-
opment of cross-Strait relations. He also suggested that the two sides resume
talks on the basis of the 1992 Consensus and emphasized shared Chinese
ethnicity.
Within two months after Ma’s election, the chair of the KMT met with top
CCP officials including Hu, with the two parties agreeing to conduct ARATS
and SEF talks about tourism, flights, and other links.68 Over the course of the
summer, Taipei raised the limit on the amount of Taiwanese funds that could be
invested in Chinese stocks. As well, it eliminated the ban on direct Chinese
investment in its stock and future exchanges.69 More dramatically perhaps, it
reached agreements on direct shipping, flights, and postal links, with all three
links opening in December.70
In 2009, the economic relationship further expanded. Wang Yi, Director of Bei-
jing’s Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO), stated in late May that the two sides were
exploring cooperation in telecommunications, wind power, and lighting, with talks
already occurring with respect to traditional medicine, auto electronics, and solar
energy. The PRC also organized purchasing teams to give Taiwan an economic
boost and promised to encourage tourism to the island.71 The next month, mainland
telecommunications and light-emitting diode industry delegations went to Taiwan,
concluding various accords and engaging in technical cooperation.72 In November,
Taiwan and the mainland signed a memorandum of understanding providing for
further cooperation in banking, insurance, and securities as well as access for
Taiwan banks on the mainland.73 The end of 2009 witnessed ARATS–SEF discus-
sions on double taxation, agricultural inspection, and certification.74
There also were moves to enhance political, social, and cultural contacts with
the TAO creating a bureau to facilitate cross-Strait party communication.75 For
its part, the Cross-Strait Economic, Trade, and Culture Forum (KMT–CCP
forum) continued to operate, allowing PRC–Taiwan officials at the highest levels
to meet.76 Beyond this, Taipei allowed some PRC media entities to bolster their
staff and conduct interviews without prior notification, and loosened various
other restrictions.77 There was also a surge in cultural cooperation. To illustrate,
China sent an exhibition of rare artifacts from the time of Emperor Yong Zheng
to Taipei’s National Palace Museum in October.78
The new tenor of cross-Strait relationship was symbolized by a meeting
between a granddaughter of Chairman Mao and a grandson of President Chiang
Kai-shek (John Chiang, a vice chairman of the KMT).79 More important, there
was progress in allotting Taiwan international space. Specifically, Beijing
allowed Taiwan to attend the World Health Organization’s (WHO) annual World
Health Assembly in April under the name “Chinese Taipei.”80 And toward the
end of the year a senior researcher with the Institute of Taiwan Studies at the
Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, following hints by the TAO, broached the
idea of the PRC reducing the number of missiles deployed against Taiwan.81
Although President Ma had proclaimed that his government had “transformed
the strait from a dangerous flashpoint to a conduit of peace and prosperity,”82 it
is clear that much mistrust and insecurity remained through the end of 2009. For
instance, in the wake of the devastating Typhoon Morakot in August, some local
governments in Taiwan refused China’s offers of relief supplies and financial
assistance.83 In October, the Taiwan Defense Ministry’s annual report warned
that the mainland had more military strength than it needed, had gained the
upper hand in the Strait, and constituted a threat to the entire region.84 The fol-
lowing month, Taiwan Premier Wu Den-Yih rejected the notion of mainland
Chinese banks buying Taiwanese banks while Taiwanese legislators obstructed
the sale of insurance businesses to Hong Kong firms with possible mainland
links.85 Earlier, Taipei had blocked China Mobile’s efforts to take a stake in Tai-
wanese telecommunications operators.86
In 2010, political, social, and other links continued on the growth path. For
instance, Taiwan opened a tourism office, called the Taiwan Strait Tourism
Association’s Beijing Office (staffed and funded by the Taiwan government), to
facilitate the visits of mainland tourists, who became the largest single group of
tourists to Taiwan, surpassing Japan.87 In March 2010, residents from Taiwan
were given the right to participate on a nonvoting basis in Chinese People’s
Political Consultative Conference activities in Fuzhou, Zhangzhou, and Xiamen,
an expansion of rights extended in some areas of Fujian since 2007.88
Earlier in 2010, Taipei lifted various limits on mainland investments by Tai-
wanese companies, including those in the flat panel and semiconductor indus-
tries.89 For its part, China spoke of facilitating cross-Strait economic ties by
accelerating the development of a West Coast Economic Zone through improved
ports, tax exemptions, and simplified ship registrations. Other planned steps
included increasing mainland investment in Taiwan, expanding the procurement
of goods from Taiwan, encouraging PRC tourists to go to Taiwan, agricultural
cooperation, and perhaps even allowing Taiwanese lawyers to deal with Taiwan-
related legal matters in Fuzhou and Xiamen.90
The most noteworthy cross-Strait pact signed under Ma’s administration has
been the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA). In late June,
PRC and Taiwan negotiators finalized details on a pact that reduced tariffs on
500 Taiwanese products (relating to, e.g., auto parts, bicycles, petrochemicals,
and fruit) and will eliminate many of them within three years. PRC concessions
affected US$13.84 billion in trade and gave increased access to Taiwanese
Introduction 11
companies to the mainland’s banking, accounting, and insurance sectors. Taiwan
gave tariff deals to fewer than 250 Chinese goods, affecting only US$3 billion in
trade. Furthermore, it did not open Taiwan to Chinese laborers or agricultural
products.91 Analysts saw the ECFA as yielding significant economic gains to
Taiwan.92 The longer-term gain could be much greater with future rounds in the
offing.93
The consensus seems to be that Taipei was spurred to action by the threat of
the China–ASEAN free trade agreement (FTA).94 Supporting this, the MAC
noted that without the ECFA, Taiwan’s exports would be subject to higher
tariffs.95 In addition, Taiwan feared political and economic marginalization.
Taipei, which wanted to sign other FTAs, observed: “In a changing world,
Taiwan can’t stand alone.”96 The deal also constituted a key part of Ma’s effort
to improve relations with China.97 Beijing’s apparent motivation was to boost
the position of the KMT, to show a more cooperative demeanor, and to demon-
strate it could treat Taiwan as an “equal.”98 Of note, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao
previously said his country could “ ‘give up our profits because Taiwanese com-
patriots are our brothers’.”99
There was a sense the ECFA would “inject great momentum in cross-Strait
ties,” with Ma hailing the ECFA as “another step toward peace and prosperity”
and in tandem with other measures pushing ties “from confrontation to negotia-
tion and from conflict to reconciliation.”100 Even so, there was considerable
opposition inside Taiwan with tens of thousands protesting in March and June.
Critics fell into two nonexclusive camps. Economic opponents derided the
potential loss of jobs, the effect on income equality, an influx of cheap mainland
goods, the dangers of mainland products, and an increase in the island’s eco-
nomic dependency on the mainland. Political opponents fretted about the
ECFA’s implications for the island’s independence and sovereignty.101 One
banker in Taipei saw the deal as “drawing Taiwan closer for eventual unifica-
tion.”102 Representative of the promajority sentiment, one Taiwan resident
observed that, “if we sign with China, we probably won’t die. If we don’t sign,
Taiwan’s economy will die.”103
Aside from the seminal ECFA, Beijing and Taipei concluded an IPR agree-
ment which provided for recognition of patents, protected plant varieties, and
promoted cooperation among patent and trademark-related businesses. It also
encouraged efforts to fight piracy, to facilitate exchanges of information, person-
nel, and documents, and to standardize documents.104 Afterwards, Taipei decided
to allow its insurers to invest a percentage of their overseas foreign investment
in Chinese stocks and bonds.105
In the military realm, China encouraged progress, stating both sides “can
contact and make exchanges on military issues and discuss the establishment of
military security and a mutual mechanism.”106 It further suggested exchanges of
retired servicemen and relevant experts. Taiwan, though, was reluctant. Indeed,
Taiwan said it primarily wanted to focus on economics and building overall
trust. Refusing to offer any timeframe, Taiwan also indicated it wanted guaran-
tees of its safety and a step-by-step negotiation process. Later, the PRC again
offered talks, saying Beijing wanted to explore establishing a cross-Strait mili-
tary security mutual trust mechanism to stabilize the situation and ease concerns.
It suggested exchanges could first involve easy matters—a suggestion which
gained credibility after a golf tournament among retired generals and a joint
maritime rescue drill. Taiwan rejected PRC entreaties and called for the main-
land to reduce its military deployments against the island.107
US policy and cross-Strait relations

Washington’s policy toward Taipei and Beijing is guided primarily by a series of
public and private presidential statements, the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) and
three US–PRC Joint Communiqués. These “cornerstones” of US policy often
appear ambiguous, or even contradictory. As John J. Tkacik, a conservative
China policy analyst, observed, America’s overall policy toward mainland China
and Taiwan might best be described as “undefined” or “internally contradic-
tory.”108 With respect to Taiwan’s future, however, American policy has
remained consistent—namely, Washington insists that the Taiwan issue must be
resolved peacefully and that it must be settled by the Chinese themselves.109
The warming relations between Taiwan and the Chinese mainland appear to
have caught some by surprise. A small number of Americans have voiced reser-
vations about this development. According to media accounts, “unnamed
sources” in the Pentagon are worried about present trends and have expressed
concerns about the prospects for possible military exchanges between Taiwan
and the Chinese mainland. An op-ed in Defense News, an influential American-
based military publication, cautioned that US defense planners must now con-
sider that “advanced arms sent to Taiwan could be in China’s hands a decade
hence.”110 Moreover, a prominent American China expert has warned that recon-
ciliation might lead to a perilous shift in the “balance of power.”111 Some Ameri-
can lawmakers have criticized the ECFA. Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen
(R.-Florida) has described the trade pact as a “Trojan horse” that will enable
Beijing to absorb Taiwan.112
American opposition to cross-Strait rapprochement receives a lot of media
attention. But these views do not reflect mainstream opinion in the US or official
American policy. The US has long supported increased cross-Strait dialogue and
exchanges as well as a peaceful resolution of the Taiwan issue. In fact, calls for
cross-Strait negotiations accelerated sharply in recent years.113 Therefore, it is
unsurprising that Washington warmly supports all moves toward cooperation
and reconciliation. Indeed, Alan Romberg, a former National Security Council
and State Department official, has suggested the US should seriously consider
mediating if asked to do so by both sides.114
When discussing changes in cross-Strait relations during his Senate confirma-
tion hearings, Kurt Campbell, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian Affairs,
opined that “in a world in which there are a lot of real concerns, there occasion-
ally are some signs of hope. And one of the things we’ve seen over the . . . last
couple of years, is an active diplomacy emerging between [the Chinese
Introduction 13
mainland] and Taiwan.” Jeffrey Bader, senior director for East Asian Affairs
115
in the US National Security Council, described the improvement in cross-Strait

relations as one of the world’s “good news stories” and said that “we think Presi-
dents Hu and Ma have done an excellent job in reaching out to each other and
building a framework that we hope will be durable and that will lead to the reso-
lution of differences.”116 Moreover, Raymond Burghardt, Chairman of the Amer-
ican Institute in Taiwan (AIT), emphasized recently in Taipei that “we really and
truly are enthusiastic about the kind of [cross-Strait] stability we now see.”117
Perhaps most significantly, during his “town hall meeting” in Shanghai in
November 2009, President Barack Obama was asked if he was “supportive of
improved cross-Strait relations.” The president declared, “I am very pleased with
the reduction of tensions and the improvement in cross-Strait relations, and it is
my deep desire and hope that we will continue to see great improvement between
Taiwan . . . and the People’s Republic in resolving many of these issues.”118 And
while the US does not want to interfere in Taiwan’s internal politics, US officials
observed that the inking of the ECFA between Beijing and Taipei would benefit
US commercial interests.119
While Washington welcomes the growing rapprochement between Taipei and
Beijing, this does not mean that Washington will change its relationship with
Taipei. For example, the US has no plans to reduce its defense commitment.120
As Robert Gates, US Secretary of Defense, explained, “we strongly encourage
the cross-Strait improvement in relations and perhaps a time will come when this
issue will go away because of those improved relations, but we will maintain our
obligations” under the TRA.121 Gates added that China’s military buildup is
“largely focused on Taiwan,” and that the US will continue to sell arms in
response to that threat. Moreover, the US will continue to support Taiwan’s
membership in international organizations that do not require statehood, and
support its meaningful participation as an “observer” or “nonstate actor” in those
institutions that do.122 Finally, officially, the US has no plans to interject itself
into cross-Strait negotiations or seek to broker a peace settlement.
In sum, American officials at the highest levels have stressed repeatedly that
reconciliation between Beijing and Taipei serves American interests. As David
B. Shear, Deputy Assistant Secretary of the US Department of State’s Bureau of
East Asian and Pacific Affairs, observed recently, “continued progress in cross-
Strait relations is critically important to the security and prosperity of the entire
region and is therefore a vital national interest of the United States.”123 This illu-
minates why the new National Security Policy of the United States proclaims,
“we will continue to encourage continued reduction in tension between the
People’s Republic of China and Taiwan.”124
Theorizing the cross-Strait dynamic

International relations theory has been used as a tool to analyze current or histor-
ical relations between the two sides with the greatest focus on the implications
of cross-Strait economic interdependence. This is not surprising given that, as
shown, cross-Strait trade, investment, and other forms of economic interaction
(e.g., tourism) have exploded since the 1990s. Furthermore, analysts and policy-
makers on both sides of the Strait seem optimistic that economic integration
eventually may serve as a basis for political integration. Regardless, international
relations theory has been brought to bear to analyze frictions between China and
Taiwan and the prospects for war in the Strait. This section first overviews this
literature before providing a lengthier, theoretical treatment of the literature on
the politico-economy of the China–Taiwan relationship.
Previous theoretical works on the Taiwan issue have adopted many different
perspectives to explain the existence or intensification (dampening) of cross-
Strait frictions. Some works, for instance, have adopted a first-image level of
analysis that highlights the role of individuals or small groups.125 Tom Chris-
tensen, for instance, argues that the 1958 Taiwan Strait Crisis had much to do
with Mao’s desire to mobilize the domestic populace.126 Dennis Hickey shows
the shift from Mao to Deng and from Jiang to Hu correlated with shifts in PRC
Taiwan policies.127 Second-image analyses have directed our attention to the
nature of political coalitions (hardliners and soft-liners), the self-interested action
of political parties, the character of the foreign policy community, the activities
of special interest groups, and nationalism.128 Explicitly third-image analyses
seem to be largely absent from the literature, though there are many analyses
that allude to the effect that the shifting balance of power may have on Chinese
behavior.129
Scott Kastner’s Conclusion addresses more extensively the use of interna-
tional relations theory to assess the prospect for high-intensity conflict (including
war) in the Taiwan Strait. Thus, we just offer a few highlights here. Analysts
have generated a plethora of studies on the subject of cross-Strait conflict,
though many do not use international relations theory. Generally speaking, the
conflict literature evaluates China’s capacity to blockade the island, to invade the
island, and the will and ability of the US to inflict unacceptable costs on China
and thus deter PRC action against Taiwan.130 For other researchers, Chinese
nationalism merits consideration as a possible cause of war in the Strait.131 More
recently, scholars have begun to consider how diversionary theories of war and
conflict may be used to analyze cross-Strait tensions and the prospects for war in
the Taiwan Strait, with one study finding that Taiwanese leaders have escalated
tensions in tandem with domestic political problems.132
The cross-Strait relations literature reveals a widespread view that economic
interests will deter conflict between Beijing and Taipei. Indeed, many contend
economic integration (e.g., the ECFA) will engender political integration.133 Sup-
porting such views are comments by President Ma, who said “we can handle
diplomatic isolation, but economic isolation is fatal.”134 Almost a decade earlier
China’s top leaders remarked that the mainland could not afford to use force
against Taiwan because it would damage the country’s development.135 Yet con-
fidence may be misplaced. After all, extremely high levels of vulnerability inter-
dependence—i.e., exposure to high economic costs in the event of a disruption
of relations without the ability to buffer such costs—have previously failed to
Introduction 15
deter war. Furthermore, looking at the Taiwan case from 2000 to 2008, it is
136
clear that extensive cross-Strait economic ties neither warmed relations nor sub-
stantially changed identities and political attitudes. Rather, some might even
argue that it promoted conflict by raising concerns about lost sovereignty,
adversely affecting labor-intensive sectors in Taiwan, and harming Taiwan’s
“south.”137
Studies on the politico-economy of cross-Strait relations tend to pay insuffi-
cient theoretical attention to the domestic dimensions of economic stimuli.138
The political economy of national security literature clearly shows, however, that
it is critical to pay attention to domestic actors.139 In this vein, one analysis of
PRC–Taiwan relations suggests the influence of economic considerations on the
PRC seems contingent on whether hardliners or soft-liners dominate.140 Beyond
examining domestic actors, it is clear that analysts must take into account the
ability of leaders to force their preferences upon or to ignore the preferences of
domestic groups.141 Focusing on Taiwan, Steve Chan argues the influence of
business interests depends inter alia upon the concentration of power and the
intensity of domestic political competition.142
In the final analysis, it cannot be said that there is any consensus on the theo-
ries or methodologies that ought to be employed when analyzing the Taiwan
issue. However, it is clear that analysts are moving in the direction not only of
exploiting international relations theory to analyze the Beijing–Taipei dynamic,
but of theorizing cross-Strait conflict and peace in a more rigorous manner. The
greatest progress is seen in the literature that focuses on the politicoeconomy of
relations between the mainland and China. The richness of the theoretical
literature on the cross-Strait dynamic also is seen herein.
Chapter overview
In Chapter 1, Chengxin Pan tackles the core question of the causes of cross-
Strait conflict. According to Pan, conventional wisdom holds that the roots of the
PRC–Taiwan problem lay in myriad cross-Strait differences in ideology, iden-
tity, and political-economic systems. Given this, most analysts contend that a
peaceful resolution of the Taiwan issue hinges on bridging those differences
through economic and/or political integration. While Pan accepts that the Taiwan
conundrum has much to do with the aforementioned divergences, he argues that
a core source of tension paradoxically is an agreement between Beijing and
Taipei; namely, a convergence on the norm of Westphalian state sovereignty.
Encompassing an exclusionary understanding of final authority, territory, and
identity, Westphalian sovereignty paints Taiwan as central to both sides’ national
identities and political survival, and subject to no negotiation. This common
understanding, then, is responsible for much of the mistrust, tension, and dead-
lock in cross-Strait relations. In Pan’s view, to find a long-term solution to the
Taiwan impasse, we need to pay attention to convergences, not just divergences.
In Chapter 2, Ching-Chang Chen explores cross-Strait frictions through
another lens. Chen examines Taipei’s post-Cold War economic policy with
respect to the mainland to explain how and why Taiwan, until 2008, persisted in
treating the mainland as an economic threat. This requires explanation, because
Taipei’s restrictions on cross-Strait trade and investment were widely considered
a failure by both opponents and supporters of closer PRC–Taiwan economic ties.
Chen argues that to understand Taipei’s policy, we need to consider an over-
looked function of Taiwan’s economic policy. To elaborate, it was not just about
tackling the problems of security externalities or promoting the island’s eco-
nomic development. What appeared to be an ineffective policy can be under-
stood as a successful boundary-drawing practice that discursively constituted a
vulnerable Taiwan under Chinese economic threat and conducive to the (re)pro-
duction of Taiwanese national identity.
In Chapter 3, Shiping Zheng investigates why the Taiwan Strait, oft con-
sidered one of the world’s most explosive hotspots and the location of several
serious crises, has experienced no major armed conflict since the 1950s. Put dif-
ferently, he queries how we answer the puzzle of no war across the Taiwan Strait
even though many have predicted such an occurence. Zheng finds that realist/
rationalist explanations emphasizing the military balance of power are uncon-
vincing. In Zheng’s view, other arguments such as the neo-liberal thesis that
eonomic integration drives peace in an age of globalization also are wanting. For
Zheng, we need to consider the “ethnicity” factor in order to understand the
absence of conflict. This factor means that when Chinese society is no longer
divided by ideological differences, “ethnicity” provides a more convincing
explanation of why a military conflict has not transpired in the Taiwan Strait
over the past four decades.
In Chapter 4, Steve Chan points to Taiwan’s evolving political economy, spe-
cifically the increasing influence of its corporate interests and the intensification
of its electoral competition, as critical to the ongoing rapprochement between
Taiwan and China. Chan points out that burgeoning cross-Strait commerce chal-
lenges realist expectations about states balancing against a rising power, and
instead lends credence to liberal arguments about the increasing influence of
internationally oriented economic interests in an era of democratization and glo-
balization. The need to finance electoral contests between political parties and to
fend off economic competition from other low-cost countries motivated Tai-
wan’s firms to turn increasingly to the Chinese market. This turn was consequen-
tial politically, both in terms of affecting the distribution of interests and
influence in Taiwan and in terms of communicating a powerful signal that its
government and businesses do not expect cross-Strait relations to deteriorate.
Thus, commerce presaged stable political relations and at the same time created
stakeholders with an interest in further expanding these relations.
In Chapter 5, Jorge Tavares da Silva also stresses the role of domestic actors
in the PRC–Taiwan dynamic. His chapter focuses on the so-called new diplo-
macy and the spillover of informal and unofficial interactions between many dif-
ferent types of actors on conflict. Tavares’s position is that more extensive
cooperation between China and Taiwan has benefitted from contacts developed
by Taiwanese businessmen operating on the mainland as well as other private
Introduction 17
actors. Informal, unofficial forms are crucial in the case of Taiwan since the
island’s status and exclusion from regional institutions force it to rely on infor-
mal processes and civil society networks. Tavares’s main purpose is to show the
role of private actors in creating a new atmosphere that encourages both sides to
favor peaceful mechanisms for resolving their problems.
Chapter 6 by T.Y. Wang and his collaborators provides readers with a good
sense of domestic public opinion in Taiwan. Utilizing statistical data recently
collected through telephone and focus group interviews, they profile Taiwan citi-
zens’ views on Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou’s approach to cross-Strait rela-
tions. Their findings indicate that Taiwan citizens’ opinions of cross-Strait
exchange mirror those expected by structural realist arguments, with many
fearing that expanded exchanges will deepen Taiwan’s economic dependence
and provide Beijing with political leverage over Taipei. For Ma’s engagement
policy to proceed further, both sides will need to demonstrate that exchanges
will not compromise Taiwan’s security and sovereignty and that Ma’s more
cordial policy towards the mainland has enhanced the island’s international
space.
Chapter 7 turns our attention to the resolution of the Taiwan impasse. In the
view of Phil Saunders and Scott Kastner, the time is ripe, given that during Tai-
wan’s 2008 presidential election both candidates advocated signing a peace
agreement with Beijing. Moreover, Chinese leaders have expressed interest in
reaching such an agreement. The two authors argue that although substantial
obstacles remain in the way of a cross-Strait peace agreement, increased interest
on both sides suggests that a closer examination of an agreement’s possible
dimensions and consequences is warranted. In their chapter, they consider what
an agreement might look like, whether and how it might be effective in reducing
the possibility of cross-Strait military conflict, the relevant barriers to an agree-
ment, and whether an agreement—if reached—would likely endure.
Yuchao Zhu also stresses problem resolution in Chapter 8. Zhu’s chapter
investigates if “democratic peace theory” (DPT) and “economic peace theory”
(EPT) have any value in addressing the Taiwan problem. DPT suggests a demo-
cratic China would most likely resolve the Taiwan issue peacefully. Thus, the
solution to the Taiwan problem is to promote democracy in China: no easy task.
EPT suggests the route to conflict avoidance and the eventual attainment of a
peaceful solution is through increased bilateral economic integration. Democ-
racy and economic integration may well be able to facilitate peaceful solutions
in most cases. As for the complex cross-Strait relationship, however, these theo-
ries have only partial validity and certainly are not a panacea.
Using earlier chapters as a base, Scott Kastner’s conclusion discusses what, if
anything, international relations (IR) theory may contribute to the study of cross-
Strait relations. Kastner concludes it may enhance our understanding of the case,
but that it needs to be applied cautiously. After discussing some of the benefits
and drawbacks associated with applying IR theory to China–Taiwan relations,
he probes an important issue in greater detail. Specifically, he considers how IR
theory can help organize analysts’ thinking about the prospects for war and
peace in the Strait. He first uses existing IR theory to derive three potential war
scenarios. He then shows that these scenarios can be useful in thinking through
how possible future political change in the PRC might impact on the likelihood
of a cross-Strait military conflict, and how deepening economic integration
between China and Taiwan affects the odds of such a conflict in the future.
Conclusion
This introduction provides an overview of China–Taiwan interactions since
1947, a primer on the contemporary cross-Strait relationship since Ma won the
Taiwan presidency in 2008 and a summary of US views about the warming of
ties between Taiwan and the mainland since Ma’s election. It also surveys efforts
by analysts to use international relations theory to illuminate the cross-Strait
dynamic, giving special attention to the literature that delves into the politico-
economy of the relationship.
From a policy perspective, the works herein yield many useful insights. For
example, Chapter 1 shows that decision-making elites should expand their
mindset beyond removing divergences to eliminating convergences (e.g., a
shared understanding of Westphalian sovereignty), while Chapter 3 highlights
the potential value of promoting convergences in different realms (e.g., ethnic-
ity). As well, Chapter 5 illustrates that unofficial interactions can advance the
relationship. Moreover, Chapters 8 and 9 offer explicit policy suggestions.
In terms of theory, the book shows the limits of realism to illuminate the
China–Taiwan dynamic. More importantly, Chapters 2, 4, and 5 lend weight to
the international relations literature that is attuned to domestic political variables,
broadly understood, while other contributions highlight the importance of con-
sidering more ideational and normative explanatory factors. Still other chapters
demonstrate how international relations theory can be fruitfully employed to
analyze the ideal form and durability of a PRC–Taiwan peace agreement
(Chapter 7), the potential for a cross-Strait democratic peace (Chapter 8), and the
likelihood of war between the mainland and Taiwan (Conclusion).
Going forward, there are several areas analysts ought to address. First,
studies on the politico-economy of cross-Strait relations need to integrate more
closely with the broader literature in the political economy of national security
subfield. For instance, analysts need to consider how perceptions (e.g., trade
expectations) and the institutional context shape the political effects of eco-
nomic ties).143 Second, it may prove fruitful to examine whether China’s foreign
policy doctrines—e.g., Peaceful Rise, Harmonious World, and Multidimen-
sional Diplomacy—influence its Taiwan policy.144 Third, it would be useful to
delve more deeply into the domestic politics of Beijing’s Taiwan policy
making, no easy task given, as one scholar put it, “the black box of Zhongnan-
hai.”145 Some observers feel that theorists need to consider, too, whether inter-
national relations theory is the best way to gain traction into a question which
many in Beijing and Taipei believe is a mixture of the international and the
domestic.
Introduction 19
There should be no doubt about the need to carefully study the China–Taiwan
relationship. As one historian observed, “The Taiwan Strait . . . remains the most
dangerous place on earth today. While much of the world focuses on threats
from terrorists, only Taiwan can trigger war between nuclear-armed great
powers.”146 Since 2008, though, the cross-Strait relationship has dramatically
improved, enough so that Taiwanese soldier Kyle Shih could joke that his main
reason for watching the PRC’s 60th anniversary military parade in 2009 was “to
see the Chinese female soldiers parading in their mini-skirts,” while other Tai-
wanese could look upon China’s impressive military hardware “not a threat, but
merely as ‘a symbol of China’s rise and power’.” Still, the cross-Strait security
dilemma, bilateral mistrust, and domestic political uncertainties are intense.
Hopefully, this volume will contribute not only to minimizing the risk of cross-
Strait conflict, but to an eventual peaceful resolution of the Taiwan issue.
Notes
1 On these, see Gordon H. Chang and He Di, “The Absence of War in the US–China
Confrontation over Quemoy and Matsu in 1954–1955: Contingency, Luck, Deter-
rence,” The American Historical Review, Vol. 98, No. 5 (December 1993),
pp. 1500–1524; Thomas J. Christensen, Useful Adversaries: Grand Strategy,
Domestic Mobilization, and Sino–American Conflict, 1947–1958 (Princeton: Prince-
ton University Press, 1997); and Robert S. Ross, “The 1995–96 Taiwan Strait Con-
frontation: Coercion, Credibility, and the Use of Force,” International Security, Vol.
25, No. 2 (Fall 2000), pp. 87–123.
2 Christopher M. Dent, “Taiwan and the New East Asian Regionalism,” Issues &
Studies, Vol. 45, No. 4 (December 2009), pp. 107–158; Ian Taylor, “Taiwan’s
Foreign Policy and Africa: The Limitations of Dollar Diplomacy,” Journal of Con-
temporary China, Vol. 11, No. 30 (February 2002), pp. 125–140; and Lam Peng Er
and Ja Ian Chong, “Japan–Taiwan Relations: Between Affinity and Reality,” Asian
Affairs, Vol. 30, No. 4 (Winter 2004), pp. 249–267.
3 On the former, see Lowell Dittmer, “Taiwan as a Factor in China’s Quest for
National Identity,” Journal of Contemporary China, Vol. 15, No. 49 (November
2006), pp. 671–686. Repeatedly highlighting the relevance of misperception is
Nancy Bernkopf Tucker, ed., Strait Talk: United States-Taiwan Relations and the
Crisis with China (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2009).
4 Robert S. Ross, “Navigating the Taiwan Strait,” International Security, Vol. 27, No.
2 (Fall 2002), pp. 48–85; Quansheng Zhao, “Beijing’s Dilemma with Taiwan: War
or Peace?” The Pacific Review, Vol. 18, No. 2 (June 2005), pp. 217–42; and Joel
Wuthnow, “The Integration of Cooptation and Conflict: China’s Taiwan Strategy
since 2001,” East Asia, Vol. 23, No. 3 (Fall 2006), pp. 22–45.
5 Kurt M. Campbell and Derek J. Mitchell, “Crisis in the Taiwan Strait?” Foreign
Affairs, Vol. 80, No. 4 (July–August, 2001), pp. 14–25; John Franklin Copper,
Playing with Fire: The Looming War with China over Taiwan (Westport: Praeger
Security International, 2006); and Steve Tsang, ed., If China Attacks Taiwan: Mili-
tary Strategy, Politics, and Economics (New York: Routledge, 2006).
6 Donald S. Zagoria, ed., Breaking the China–Taiwan Impasse (Westport, CT:
Praeger, 2003); Steve Tsang, ed., Peace and Security across the Taiwan Strait (Bas-
ingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 2004); and Kenneth Lieberthal, “Preventing a War
over Taiwan,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 84, No. 2 (March–April 2005), pp. 53–63.
7 Lijun Sheng, China and Taiwan: Cross-Strait Relations under Chen Shui-bian
(London: Zed Books, 2002); Peter C.Y. Chow, ed., The “One China” Dilemma
(New York: Palgrave MacMillan, 2008); and Chi Su, Taiwan’s Relations with Main-
land China: A Tail Wagging Two Dogs (London: Routledge, 2009).
8 Relevant works by theme include Jack S. Levy and William R. Thompson, Causes
of War (Malden: Wiley-Blackwell, 2010); Steven E. Lobell, Norrin M. Ripsman,
and Jeffrey W. Taliaferro, eds., Neoclassical Realism, the State, and Foreign Policy
(Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009); and Jean-Marc F. Blanchard,
Edward D. Mansfield, and Norrin M. Ripsman, eds., Power and the Purse: Eco-
nomic Statecraft, Interdependence, and National Security (London: Frank Cass,
2000).
9 Yin-Wong Cheung, Menzie D. Chinn, and Eiji Fujii, The Economic Integration of
Greater China: Real and Financial Linkages and the Prospects for Currency Union
(Hong Kong: Hong Kong University Press, 2007); Steven M. Goldstein and Julian
Chang, eds., Economic Reform and Cross-Strait Relations: Taiwan and China in the
WTO (Hackensack, NJ: World Scientific Publishing, 2007); and Su, Taiwan’s Rela-
tions with Mainland China.
10 Alan Wachman, “Stamped Out!: Carto-Philatelic Evidence of the PRC’s Constructed
Notion of China’s Territorial Integrity,” East Asia, Vol. 22, No. 2 (June 2005),
pp. 31–55.
11 TAO, The Taiwan Question and Reunification of China (Beijing, China: Information
Office State Council, August 1993), p. 1.
12 Ibid. p. 2.
13 Ibid. p. 5.
14 Ibid. p. 9.
15 TAO, “The One-China Principle and the Taiwan Issue,” White Paper Released by
the Taiwan Affairs Office and Information Office of the State Council, February 21,
2000, www.gov.cn/english/official/2005–07/27/content_17613.htm, accessed Febru-
ary 22, 2000.
16 Dennis V. Hickey interview with Dr. Ding Kuisong, Director, Division for North
American Studies, China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, Beijing,
PRC, October 9, 1998.
17 Shu-Ling Ko “Ma Refers to China as ROC Territory in Magazine Interview,” Taipei
Times (October 8, 2008), p. 2, www.taipeitimes.com, accessed October 9, 2008.
18 Iok-sin Loa, “Ma Repeats ‘Region-to-Region’ Comment,” Taipei Times (December
22, 2008), p. 3, www.taipeitimes.com, accessed December 23, 2008.
19 Ko, “Ma Refers to China as ROC Territory in Magazine Interview.”
20 Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in Botswana, The Chinese Government’s
Stand on the Taiwan Issue, http://bw.china-embassy.org/eng/zt/twwt/t212838.htm,
accessed May 10, 2010.
21 Interview with Senator Fred Thompson in “Dangerous Straits,” Public Broadcasting
System, Frontline (October 18, 2001), www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/
china/experts/taiwan.html.
22 For a comprehensive overview of the considerations that drive Beijing’s policy
toward Taipei, see Dennis V. Hickey, “China’s Claim to Taiwan: Perception and
Policies,” in Sumit Ganguly, Andrew Scobel, and Joseph Chingyong Liow, eds., The
Routledge Handbook of Asian Security Studies (London: Routledge Publishers,
2010), pp. 48–60.
23 Michael Swaine, “Trouble in Taiwan,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 83, No. 2 (March/April
2004), p. 39.
24 The Century of National Humiliation refers to a period of time roughly from the
1842 Treaty of Nanjing to 1949 when China lost territory, juridical autonomy, sov-
ereign rights, foreign policy independence, and the like due to pressures from the
West and Japan. A detailed treatment of the relevant historical period can be found
in Jonathan Spence, The Search for Modern China, 2nd edn. (New York: W. W.
Norton, 1999).
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New Thinking about the Taiwan Issue

Jean-­Marc F. Blanchard is Associate Professor in the Department of Interna-

ASEAN and the Security of Communitarian Ideology and

The State and Ethnic Politics in Korea versus Korea

Taiwan and Chinese Nationalism

Politics in Indonesia Managing Political Change in

Engaging China Singapore Politics under the

Constructing a Security Community Challenging Authoritarianism in

Islam in Indonesian Foreign Policy Realism and Interdependence in

China, Arms Control and State Terrorism and Political

Edited by Jean-­Marc F. Blanchard and

List of figures and tables xi

Introduction: more than two “sides” to every story: an

1 Normative convergence and cross-­Strait divergence:

2 Useful adversaries: how to understand the political economy

3 Ethnic peace in the Taiwan Strait 71

4 Unbalanced threat or rising integration? Explaining

5 Informal and nonofficial interactions in the new start of

6 Structural realism and liberal pluralism: an assessment of

8 “Democratic peace” or “economic peace”? Theoretical

Conclusion: international relations theory and the

Jean-­Marc F. Blanchard is Associate Professor in the Department of Interna-

The salience of Taiwan issue to China

Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s sovereign territory, whose tempo-

As Senator Fred Thompson (R.-Tennessee), observed, it is difficult for many

Taiwan–China relations, 1947–2008

Phase one: hot war, 1949–1976

Phase two: cold war, 1976–1996

Phase three: cold peace, 1988–2008

US policy and cross-­Strait relations

in the US National Security Council, described the improvement in cross-­Strait

Theorizing the cross-­Strait dynamic

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Jean-Marc F. Blanchard is Associate Professor in the Department of Interna-

Edited by Jean-Marc F. Blanchard and

List of figures and tables xi

1 Normative convergence and cross-Strait divergence:

3 Ethnic peace in the Taiwan Strait 71

Jean-Marc F. Blanchard is Associate Professor in the Department of Interna-

US policy and cross-Strait relations

in the US National Security Council, described the improvement in cross-Strait

Theorizing the cross-Strait dynamic