Taibah University

College of Engineering

Department of
Civil Engineering
Course CE 363:
Transportation Engineering

Chapter 6: Four step model: Mode choice

(Fall 2021)
Mode choice or Modal split: Definition

Mode choice is that aspect of the demand analysis process that determines the
number (or percentage) of trips between traffic analysis zones (TAZs) that are made
by automobile, Transit, walk, bike, carpool or motorcycle.

Mode choice models attempt to replicate the relevant characteristics of the traveler,
the transportation system, and the trip itself, such that a realistic estimate of the
number of trips by each mode for each zonal pair is obtained

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Factors influencing Mode Choice
• Availability of transit
• Availability of parking
• Individual or Household characteristics
• Income
• Auto ownership
• Stage in life
• Old and young are more likely to be transit dependent
• Type of trip
• Work trip more likely transit
• Special trip – trip to airport or football stadium served by transit
• Shopping, recreational trips by auto
•Modal characteristics
• Travel time
• Cost
• comfort
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Mode choice models
Four general types of models or methods are widely used to estimate how much trips
will use automobile versus available transit alternatives

01 Direct Generation Models

02 Trip End Models

Mode choice methods

03 Trip Interchange Models

04 Logit Models
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Direct Generation Models

• Direct Generation Models allow for simple estimation of modal trips based

upon population density

• As population density increase, transit ridership is expected to increase

• Assumes attributes of the system (e.g. travel times, cost, convenience, etc.)

are not relevant to analysis.

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Direct Generation Model: Example
• Determine the number of
transit trips per day in a zone
which has 5000 people living
on 50 acres. Zone consists of
40% zero-auto households
and 60% one-auto
households.
Number of Transit Trips by Population Density and Automobile
1 Acre= 4046,86 sqm
Ownership per Household
HH=household

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Direct Generation Model: Example

• Solution
Calculate population 510

density=5000/50=100 persons/acre
250

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Direct Generation Model Example

solution:
• From figure in previous slide:
• Zero autos / HH: 510 trips / day/1000 population
• One auto / HH: 250 trips / day/1000 population
• Total Transit Trips: (0.40)(510)(5)+(0.60)(250)(5)=1020+750 =1770 transit trips / day

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Trip End Model
• In the trip end model, trips are allocated to transit prior to trip distribution using a
mode split curve
• This allocation is based on land-use(e.g. Auto ownership) characteristics
• The trip end model does not incorporate quality of service

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Trip End Model: Procedure

1. Generate total person trip productions and attractions by trip purpose.

2. Compute the Urban Travel Factor (UTF).

3. Determine the percentage of these trips by transit using a mode choice curve.

4. Apply auto occupancy factors.

5. Distribute transit and auto trips separately.

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Trip End Model Example
• Determine the percentage of residents
expected to use transit for a zone with 1.8
households per auto and a residential
density of 15.000 𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝/𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚 2

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Trip End Model Example
1
𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈𝑈 = ∗ 1.80 ∗ 15.000 = 27.0
1000

Expected percentage of
Expected percentage of
transit mode is ~45%.
transit mode is ~45%.
45

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Trip Interchange Model

• The Trip interchange model considers system level of service variables:

• In-vehicle travel time
• Excess(i.e., walking and waiting) time
• Travel costs
• Economics status of trip maker

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Trip Interchange Model
𝐼𝐼𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑏𝑏 𝐼𝐼𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑎𝑎 −𝑏𝑏
𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑎𝑎 = 𝑏𝑏 𝑏𝑏 × 100 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑎𝑎 = −𝑏𝑏 −𝑏𝑏 × 100
𝐼𝐼𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 + 𝐼𝐼𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑎𝑎 𝐼𝐼𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 + 𝐼𝐼𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑎𝑎

𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑡𝑡 = 1 − 𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑎𝑎 × 100

Where:
MSt proportion of trips between zone i and j using transit
MSa proportion of trips between zone i and j using auto
Iijm a value referred to as the impedance of travel of mode m, between i and j, which is a measure of the
total cost of the trip.
[Impedance=(in-vehicle time in min)+(2.5x excess time in min) + (3 x trip cost, $ / income earned/min).]
b an exponent, which depends on trip purpose .
𝑚𝑚 = t for transit mode; a for auto mode.
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Trip Interchange Model

the QRS method, assume that the data shown in Table 12.21 have been developed for
travel between a suburban zone S and a downtown zone D. Determine the percent of
work trips by auto and transit. An exponent value of 2.0 is used for work travel. Median
income is $24,000 per year. (We take here 250 working 8 hours/ day)

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Trip Interchange Model
[Impedance=(in-vehicle time in min)+(2.5x excess time in
min) + (3 x trip cost, $ / income earned/min).]

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Trip Interchange Model: Example

Therefore, 58.3 percent of travel between the zones S and D is expected to be

via transit
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Logit Models
• The logit model considers the relative utility of each mode based on various modal
attributes
𝑈𝑈𝑚𝑚 = 𝛽𝛽0 + 𝛽𝛽1 𝑋𝑋1 + 𝛽𝛽2 𝑋𝑋2 + ⋯ + 𝛽𝛽𝑛𝑛 𝑋𝑋𝑛𝑛

Where:
• 𝑈𝑈𝑚𝑚 = utility of mode m
• 𝑛𝑛= number of attributes
• 𝑋𝑋𝑖𝑖 =attribute value(time, cost, etc.)
• 𝛽𝛽𝑖𝑖 =coefficient value for attribute i.

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Logit Models

• The choice of a mode is expressed as a probability distribution.

• If auto (A) and transit (T) modes are being considered, the probability of
selecting the auto mode A can be written as:

𝑒𝑒 𝑈𝑈𝐴𝐴
𝑃𝑃 𝐴𝐴 = 𝑈𝑈
𝑒𝑒 𝐴𝐴 + 𝑒𝑒 𝑈𝑈𝑇𝑇

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Logit Model Example
Data has been obtained for travel between an additional suburban and downtown
zone. The logit model has been developed to estimate the mode share between
these two zones:
𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴: 𝑈𝑈𝐴𝐴 = −0.46 − 0.35 𝑇𝑇1 − 0.08 𝑇𝑇2 − 0.5𝐶𝐶

𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇: 𝑈𝑈𝑇𝑇 = −0.07 − 0.35 𝑇𝑇1 − 0.08 𝑇𝑇2 − 0.5𝐶𝐶

Where:
𝑇𝑇1 =Total travel time (min)
𝑇𝑇2 =Waiting time (min)
C=Cost (dollars)
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Logit Model Example
• Travel and cost data for each mode is provided in the following table.

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Logit Model: Example
• Use the logit model to determine the percent of travel in the zone by auto and
transit
𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴𝐴: 𝑈𝑈𝐴𝐴 = −0.46 − 0.35 20 − 0.08 8 − 0.5 3.20 = −9.70
𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇: 𝑈𝑈𝑇𝑇 = −0.07 − 0.35 30 − 0.08 6 − 0.5 1.00 = −11.55

𝑃𝑃𝐴𝐴 = 𝑒𝑒 −9.70 /(𝑒𝑒 −9.70 + 𝑒𝑒 −11.55 ) = 0.86

𝑃𝑃𝑇𝑇 = 𝑒𝑒 −11.5 /(𝑒𝑒 −9.70 + 𝑒𝑒 −11.55 ) = 0.14

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