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STUDY GUIDE
ED
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DE L U NI T
UNIVER SITY
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Model United Nations Bilkent University
Agenda Item:
The alarming state of security and tensions in the Middle East.
10. Bibliography…………………………………………………………………………….46
1. Letter from Secretary General
Honourable Delegates,
Greetings and a warm welcome to the eleventh edition of MUNBU, and welcome to my
beloved school, İhsan Doğramacı Bilkent University! I am a third year student in, as you
guessed from my excited welcome, İhsan Doğramacı Bilkent University, Political Science
and Public Administration. I am delighted to serve as the Secretary-General for this year after
my 7 years in MUN, and I take great pride in the collaborative efforts of our dedicated
organisation and academic teams to bring you this year’s conference. We have worked
tirelessly to curate an outstanding conference experience for you.
Vedat, being one of the most diplomatic, composed and considerate people I’ve ever seen-
and he also happens to be an excellent MUN’er. He has provided an excellent guide (although
he has given me an incredibly painful process while doing so, as is the customary for NATO
USG’s in NATO), and I am more than certain that he will provide an excellent performance
during the conference as well, to make sure all delegates go about their debates fittingly and
to ensure you all a great experience. I have trust in him and his abilities, and I hope that
you’ll come to enjoy your time at his committee.
Once again, welcome. Should you have any inquiries, please do not hesitate to contact me (or
your Under Secretary General, through his email) via my email, umayywork@gmail.com .
Best,
Umay GÖLLÜ
Secretary General of MUNBU24
1
2. Letter from Under Secretary General
Honourable Delegates,
As the Under Secretary General of the NATO committee at this year's MUNBU’24
conference.I'm happy to greet each and every one of you at this significant gathering. We're
here today to talk about some of the most important problems the world is currently
experiencing, and I think that if we band together, we can discover solutions that are truly
beneficial to all of us. We convene under the banner of NATO to address "The State of
Security and Tensions in the Middle East.”You have the difficult task of negotiating the
complex landscape of Middle Eastern geopolitics as NATO delegates.This region's rich
history and strategic significance offer a unique opportunity for you to engage in meaningful
debate, understand diverse perspectives, and craft sustainable solutions. I urge you to
embrace the spirit of cooperation and mutual respect, embodying the ethos of NATO in your
discussions. Remember, the insights and resolutions you develop here have the potential to
echo beyond this conference, inspiring change and influencing global diplomatic narrativesI
would like to thank our Secretary General Umay Alçin Göllü for her leadership and
assistance, as well as my Academic Assistant Duru Hızarcıoğlu. I hope this conference is
fruitful and educational for all of you, and I am looking forward to having meaningful
conversations with each of you.
Best,
Vedat Babatan
Under Secretary-General of NATO
2
3. Letter from Academic Assistant
Esteemed Delegates,
I am thrilled to welcome each of you to the MUNBU 24 Conference. As the Academic
Assistant for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, it is my honor to facilitate discussions
within the NATO committee, particularly as we delve into the pressing and complex issue of
security and tensions in the Middle East. This topic, essential to understanding global politics,
offers a profound opportunity for you to engage in robust debate and critical thinking. Under
the wise direction of our Under Secretary-General, Vedat Babatan, and expertly guided by
our Secretary-General, Umay Alçin Göllü, this conference represents a unique confluence of
creative ideas and a variety of viewpoints. They have come together to provide a platform
where your ideas may grow and be heard. Your opinions and suggestions are what will drive
our conversations and determine the outcome of this conference. I'm hoping that the four
days will be rewarding and unforgettable for every member of the committee and the
conference.
Sincerely,
Duru Hızarcıoğlu
Academic Assistant of NATO
3
4. Introduction to the Committee
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is an intergovernmental military and
political alliance of 30 member states, originally established with the signing of the North
Atlantic Treaty in 1949 in Washington, D.C (known as the Washington Treaty). NATO is an
alliance of countries from Europe and North America, providing a link between the
continents and enabling them to consult and cooperate in the field of defense and security and
conduct multinational crisis-management operations together.1
NATO comprises two main parts, political and military2. NATO headquarters is where
representatives from all the member states come together to take decisions on a consensus
basis. The key elements of military organizations of NATO are the Military Committee,
composed of the Chiefs of Defense of NATO countries3.
4.1. History
By the time World War II ended in 1945, western European countries were weakened
both economically and militarily. The Soviet Union had emerged from the war with its armies
dominating all the states of central and Eastern Europe, and by 1948 communists under
Moscow’s sponsorship had consolidated their control of the governments of those countries
and suppressed all non-communist political activity. Unified military domination, especially
in Eastern Europe, increased the sense of vulnerability4. Moreover, the Soviets wanted to
extend their influence further over Europe and spread communism through the continent.
Western European Nations began to see the invasions of the Soviets as a security threat as
their main importance is to preserve liberal and democratic values. At the time, the United
States was an ally to Western European Countries and an antagonist to the Soviets. This made
the United States join the discussions and the collective defense against the Soviet Regime.
As a result, the first 12 members came together to sign the North Atlantic Treaty and form
NATO to deter Soviet aggression and ensure the security and defense of Europe. Although
the common belief suggests that NATO was founded only to prevent communist and Soviet
threats, NATO’s creation was part of a broader effort to serve three purposes; deterring Soviet
expansionism, forbidding the revival of nationalist militarism in Europe through a strong
North American presence on the continent, and encouraging European political integration.
1
NATO. (n.d.). Welcome to NATO. Retrieved from https://www.nato.int/nato-welcome/index.html
2
NATO. (n.d.). Welcome to NATO. Retrieved from https://www.nato.int/nato-welcome/index.html
3
NATO U.S. Mission. (n.d.). About NATO. [online] Retrieved from:
https://nato.usmission.gov/about-nato/#:~:text=NATO's%20fundamental%20goal%20is%20to,of%20its%20com
mon%20democratic%20values.
4
Encyclopedia Britannica. (n.d.). North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). [online] Retrieved from
https://www.britannica.com/topic/North-Atlantic-Treaty-Organization
4
The NATO framework started to shape itself as diplomatic compounds with the Warsaw Pact
countries (also referred as the Eastern bloc5) were established and as a result, 4 new members
were admitted to NATO (whose members represent the Western bloc); bringing the number
of members to 16.
After the end of the Cold War and the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact and the Soviet Union in
1991, the need for the existence of an Atlantic Alliance was questioned. That was when
NATO pursued its two other goals that were left behind during the Cold War era: preventing
the resurgence of nationalist militarism in Europe through a strong North American presence
on the continent and encouraging European political integration. In December 1991, member
states of the time established the North Atlantic Cooperation renamed Euro-Atlantic
Partnership Council in 19976 . Due to this cooperation, allies were brought together with
Central, Eastern European, and Central Asian neighbors. The alliance also founded The
Mediterranean Dialogue in 1994, which seeks to contribute to security and stability in the
Mediterranean through better mutual understanding, with six non-member Mediterranean
countries: Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Mauritania, Morocco, and Tunisia; Algeria also joined them
in 2000. Members created the Partnership of Piece program, which allows non-NATO
member Partners to share information with NATO Allies and help modernize their military
and political will with democratic standards. Partners can choose their level of involvement
with members and their membership chances would remain open. This program resulted in
three partners (Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary) gaining their place as alliance
members. After the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center have indicated that every political
disorder can harm the allies. The Russia-NATO Council was established in 2002 as a forum
for dialogue and cooperation between NATO and Russia on security issues, including those
related to the Middle East. The Istanbul Cooperation Initiative was started in 2004 as an offer
of security cooperation with Middle Eastern Countries. As a result, 11 more partners have
become members in the upcoming years: Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Slovenia, Latvia,
Estonia and Lithuania, Croatia, Albania, Montenegro, and North Macedonia. Finally, Sweden
and Finland were invited to the membership and Finland has got the 31st member seat of the
alliance7.
5
NATO (n.d.). NATO’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, NATO. Available at:
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_192648.htm
6
NATO (n.d.). NATO’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, NATO. Available at:
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_192648.htm.
7
NATO (n.d.). NATO’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, NATO. Available at:
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_192648.htm.
5
4.2. Scope
The fundamental purpose of NATO is to ensure freedom and security for its member
countries through military and political means. Article 5 of the Washington Treaty states that
“…an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be
considered an attack against them all…”8 This indicates that the core of the Alliance is the
promise of collective defense. Allies are bound together by common values such as human
rights, democracy, individual liberty, and the rule of the law. They remain firmly committed
to the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations and the North Atlantic
Treaty.
Original 12 members who founded NATO with the signing of the Washington Treaty
were Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands,
Norway, Portugal, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Joining the original
signatories were Türkiye and Greece (1952); West Germany (1955, as Germany in 1990),
Spain (1982); Czechia, Hungary, and Poland (1999); Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania,
Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia (2004); Albania and Croatia (2009); Montenegro (2017),
North Macedonia (2020) and finally Finland (2023) respectively9. Over the past two decades,
the Alliance has developed a network of structured partnerships with countries from the
Euro-Atlantic area, the Mediterranean, and the Gulf region, as well as individual relationships
with other partners across the globe.
4.4. Responsibilities and Powers of NATO
4.4.1. Decision Making Process
The consensus-based decision-making procedure used by NATO requires unanimous
agreement from all members before a decision may be carried out. The North Atlantic
Council (NAC), which is made up of the representatives of all member nations, is the primary
decision-making body within NATO. The NAC oversees determining the overarching policy
direction and making decisions about the political and military operations of the organization.
The NAC convenes at least once a year for a summit conference at the level of Heads of State
8
Haglund, D. G. "North Atlantic Treaty Organization." Encyclopedia Britannica, January 3, 2024.
https://www.britannica.com/topic/North-Atlantic-Treaty-Organization.
9
Haglund, D. G. "North Atlantic Treaty Organization." Encyclopedia Britannica, January 3, 2024.
https://www.britannica.com/topic/North-Atlantic-Treaty-Organization.
6
and Government to evaluate and lead the political course of the alliance as well as to discuss
and reach decisions on all alliance-related issues.10
4.4.2. Tasks and Responsibilities
To foster confidence and, ultimately, prevent conflict, NATO supports consultation
and collaboration on defense and security-related topics. NATO is dedicated to peacefully
resolving disputes.
The Military Committee (MC), another significant sub-organization of NATO, oversees and
directs all military operations. The MC directs the military authorities of the participating
nations and oversees organizing and managing NATO's military activities. The Chiefs of
Defense from each member nation make up the MC.
There are other smaller organizations as well, such as the NATO Command Structure (NCS),
which consists of the commands and headquarters of NATO and oversees organizing and
managing military activities. A military planning procedure known as the NATO Defense
Planning Process (NDPP) is used to guarantee readiness and capabilities for tasks including
crisis management and collective defense within NATO. The NATO Science for Peace and
Security (SPS) program is dedicated to bringing scientists and researchers from NATO and
partner nations together to collaborate on initiatives that support the security objectives of the
alliance.11
4.4.3. Political and Bureaucratic
NATO is faced with several difficulties, including the rise of terrorism and extremism,
the spread of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs), cyberattacks, and instability in the
Middle East and North African Regions, also known as the MENA area. In addition, the
alliance is dealing with fresh security issues brought on by the swiftly shifting global
environment, including the increasing influence of China and Russia as major global powers
and the evolving nature of warfare, which includes an increase in the employment of
asymmetric and hybrid tactics. Additionally, disagreements and conflict among the alliance's
members have been fueled by concerns about the burden sharing and equity of defense
spending.
NATO has been putting into practice several efforts and changes to meet these difficulties,
including the development of a new NATO Command Structure, the improvement of the fast
10
NATO Handbook (NATO Public Diplomacy Division 1969), 33-67.
11
NATO Handbook (NATO Public Diplomacy Division 1969), 33-43.
7
reaction force, and the raising of the level of force preparedness. The alliance has also been
putting more of an emphasis on cyber defense and space security, as well as on using
cutting-edge technologies to increase its capabilities and the effectiveness of its operations.12
5. Introduction to Agenda Item: The Alarming State of Security and Tensions in
the Middle East
This study guide will provide an overview of the region in terms of political
environment, economic pathways and orders, perspectives of regional parties, including
non-governmental organizations, and potential and ongoing challenges.
5.1. Overview of NATO's Role in International Relations
Since its establishment in 1949, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has
been a cornerstone of global security and international relations. Originally formed as a
bulwark against potential Soviet aggression,13 NATO has progressively broadened its focus,
addressing various global security issues. In the Middle East, NATO's involvement has
ranged from direct military interventions to diplomatic actions, exemplifying its expanded
geographical and functional scope. A case in point is NATO's military intervention in Libya
in 201114, sanctioned by United Nations Security Council Resolutions 1970, and 197315.
5.2. Importance of the Middle East in Global Politics
The Middle East's significance in global politics comes from its strategic geographical
position, substantial energy reserves, and intricate political landscape16. The region is a center
in the world's energy supply chain, with key oil-producing nations like Saudi Arabia, Iraq,
and Iran heavily influencing global oil markets. As of 2023, the Middle East remains a
dominant player in global oil exports, significantly affecting worldwide economies17.
Furthermore, the region's enduring conflicts, such as the Israeli-Palestinian issue and the
Syrian Civil War, have extensive global ramifications. Stability in the Middle East is vital for
maintaining international trade, ensuring energy security, and combating terrorism, thereby
positioning it at the heart of NATO's strategic interests. But nonetheless for the countries in
12
NATO Handbook (NATO Public Diplomacy Division 1969), 33-43.
13
Gradirovsky, Sergei, Neli Esipova, and Julie Ray. "The decisive factor: post-Soviet states' attitudes toward
NATO." Harvard International Review 31, no. 4 (2010): 62+. Gale Academic OneFile.
https://link.gale.com/apps/doc/A219900489/AONE?u=anon~d42fdc2a&sid=googleScholar&xid=73a08a5c.
14
Nato, “Statement on Libya Following the Working Lunch of NATO Ministers of Defence with Non-NATO
Contributors to Operation Unified Protector,” NATO, accessed January 4, 2024,
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_75177.htm.
15
Nato, “NATO 2022 Strategic Concept (in English, French and Other Languages),” NATO, accessed January 4,
2024, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_210907.htm.
16
https://kids.britannica.com/students/article/Middle-East/275834#:~:text=Today%20the%20Middle%20East's%
20strategic,of%20proportion%20to%20its%20size.
17
Crude oil production, accessed January 4, 2024,
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_crd_crpdn_adc_mbbl_m.htm.
8
middle east, the state is not very bright since the numerous political conflicts in the region
makes it very hard to negotiate a powerful place in the political sphere therefore every player
in the region has its advantages and disadvantages. The Middle East is usually studied in
international relations with an emphasis placed on power politics and inter-state competition,
with attention given principally to crisis events that happen within the region.
5.3. Historical Background
5.4.Historical Overview of Middle Eastern Conflicts
Since ancient times, the Middle East has occupied a central position in global affairs.
Its strategic location at the crossroads of three continents - Asia, Africa, and Europe - has
made it a natural trade corridor and a focal point for political and cultural exchange. Rich in
natural resources, particularly vast oil and gas reserves, the region has also been a source of
immense wealth and a target for external powers throughout history.18 The modern history of
the Middle East has been shaped by colonialism, the discovery of oil, and numerous wars and
conflicts. The Ottoman Empire, which ruled much of the region for centuries, collapsed in the
aftermath of World War I, leading to the division of its territories into European mandates and
the creation of new nation-states. The discovery of oil in the early 20th century brought
immense wealth to the region but also fueled competition and conflict among Western powers
and local actors.
Following World War II, the Middle East became a battleground in the Cold War, with the
United States and the Soviet Union vying for influence.19 The creation of Israel in 1948 and
the subsequent Arab Israeli conflicts further destabilized the region, leading to numerous
wars and ongoing tensions. The vast oil reserves of the Middle East have fueled economic
booms in some countries, but they have also been a source of internal conflict and external
intervention. Resource-rich countries have often faced challenges in equitably distributing
wealth and ensuring political stability. Additionally, the strategic importance of the region's
oil supplies has led to involvement by external powers, further complicating the region's
political landscape. The Middle East continues to be a region of immense strategic
importance and ongoing conflict. The challenges of resource management, political
instability, and external intervention remain pressing issues. However, the region is also home
to a rich cultural heritage, a young and growing population, and a significant entrepreneurial
18
Shah, Anup. “The Middle East Conflict—a Brief Background.” Global Issues, July 30, 2006.
https://www.globalissues.org/article/119/the-middle-east-conflict-a-brief-background.
19
Shah, Anup. “The Middle East Conflict—a Brief Background.” Global Issues, July 30, 2006.
https://www.globalissues.org/article/119/the-middle-east-conflict-a-brief-background.
9
spirit. As the world grapples with the challenges of the 21st century, the Middle East is sure
to remain a central player on the global stage.
5.5. NATO's Historical Involvement in the Middle East
While primarily focused on European security during the Cold War, NATO's
involvement in the Middle East has steadily increased and evolved over time. This
engagement has ranged from diplomatic efforts and training programs to controversial
military interventions, often driven by a blend of regional stability concerns,
counter-terrorism objectives, and alliance member interests. Most operations are limited in
scope, and the Greater Middle East political debate is still in its infancy. Nonetheless, there is
a clear trend toward greater Alliance involvement in the region, and NATO's role in this area
is likely to expand.20 In terms of missions, participation, and possibly future membership,
NATO is in the process of transforming itself into a global security organization. NATO will
not become a security alliance in the Middle East in the same way that it is in Western
Europe, with US and European bases scattered throughout the region. Regardless of the
differences between NATO members and the obstacles to NATO playing a role in the Middle
East region, the United States and Europe will continue to have significant common security
interests in the region, and NATO will remain the best mechanism for coordinating their
policies and operations. Those who have predicted NATO's demise for years are likely to be
proven wrong.21
5.5.1. Cold War Era (1949-1991): NATO viewed the Middle East as a front in its clash
with the Soviet Union. It supported pro-Western governments and indirectly
engaged in conflicts like the Suez Crisis (1956).22
20
Kay, Sean. “Putting NATO Back Together Again.” Current History 102, no. 662 (March 1, 2003): 106–12.
https://doi.org/10.1525/curh.2003.102.662.106.
21
,Sean. “Putting NATO Back Together Again.”
22
Haglund D.G. NATO, Britannica
10
Figure 123, a map of the Suez Crisis.
5.5.2. Post-Cold War Era (1991-Present): With the Soviet threat diminished, NATO's
focus shifted towards cooperative security and regional conflict resolution. It
initiated training programs and partnerships with Middle Eastern countries, aiming
to promote stability and prevent the spread of weapons of mass destruction.
Some key events were:
5.5.3. Kosovo War (1999): NATO's first major military intervention outside Europe,
launching airstrikes to protect Kosovar Albanians from Serbian forces. This
marked a significant expansion of the alliance's mandate and its willingness to use
force for humanitarian reasons.
23
Rust, Owen. The Suez Canal Crisis of 1956 & The Rise of the US. TheCollector, (August 24, 2023).
https://www.thecollector.com/the-suez-canal-crisis-1956-explained/.
11
Figure 224, A local Serb man walks past NATO backed Kosovo Peacekeeping
Force.
5.5.4. Afghanistan War (2001-2021): Following the 9/11 attacks, NATO led the
International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan, supporting the
Afghan government against the Taliban and training Afghan security forces. The
effectiveness and long-term impact of this intervention remain debated.25
5.5.5. Libyan Civil War (2011): NATO's intervention, authorized by the UN, involved
airstrikes to protect civilians during the Libyan uprising against Muammar
Gaddafi. The success of this intervention and its implications for Libyan political
stability are contested.
24
Zhinipotoku, Zenel, and Llazar Semini. NATO Equips Peacekeeping Force in Kosovo with Heavier
Armament to Have ‘Combat Power’ AP News,( October 10, 2023).
https://apnews.com/article/kosovo-serbia-kfor-nato-troops-heavier-armament-1b85756299b57fabdf7910f4fe0ab
316.
25
Haglund D.G. NATO, Britannica
12
5.6. Key Milestones in Middle Eastern Geopolitics
Several key events have shaped the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East:
5.6.1. The 1979 Iranian Revolution, which transformed Iran from a pro-Western
monarchy into an Islamic Republic, significantly impacting regional dynamics.
One of the main drivers of the revolution was the religious and political
opposition led by the Shiite26 Muslim leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.
Ayatollah Khomeini was an Iranian Islamic revolutionary, politician, and religious
leader who served as the first supreme leader of Iran. He was the founder of the
Islamic Republic of Iran and the leader of the Iranian Revolution, the religious
leader of Iran. The opposition led by Khomeini was against the Shah's
authoritarian rule and Western influences. Protests were important for the people
to express their demands for revolution. In 1979, the revolution reached its peak
and the Shah was exiled from the country.27 Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini rose to
prominence as the founder of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Iran became an Islamic
Republic, and its political system was largely based on Islamic law (Sharia).
During this period, Iran attracted international attention for adopting a political
system based on religious leadership. Additionally, Iran's religious leadership has
inspired Islamist movements in other Middle Eastern countries.28 (Wagner, H. L.
(2010). The Iranian Revolution. Infobase Publishing.)
26
Encyclopædia Britannica, inc. (2023c, December 18). Shiʿi. Encyclopædia Britannica.
27
Zunes, Stephen. “The Iranian Revolution (1977-1979) | ICNC.” ICNC, April 9, 2009.
https://www.nonviolent-conflict.org/iranian-revolution-1977-1979/.
28
Google. (n.d.). The Iranian Revolution. Google Kitaplar.
https://books.google.com.tr/books?id=TZLq5TzLNqkC&lpg=PP1&ots=By1DARIUsU&dq=Wagner%2C+H.+L
.+%282010%29.+The+Iranian+Revolution.+Infobase+Publishing.&lr&hl=tr&pg=PP1#v=onepage&q&f=false
13
Figure 329, Showing the enthuasiasm from the people of Iran, for the Iranian
Revulotion.
5.6.2. The Gulf Wars, particularly the 1990-91 conflict following Iraq's invasion of
Kuwait, and the 2003 Iraq War led by the U.S. and its allies, had profound effects
on the region. The Persian Gulf is a region that can maintain its strategic position
in every period of history30. The intense emergence of oil in the region after the
World War increased the importance of this region even more. Due to the
dependence of the industrialized and developing world on oil, the Persian Gulf has
become the first region that the countries of the world take into consideration
when determining their geopolitical strategies. The 1991 Gulf Crisis began on
August 2, 1990, when Iraqi military units crossed the border with Kuwait and
occupied this country. The crisis, which suddenly caused surprise and shock in the
international arena, turned into an international crisis in a short time. ‘‘For over
four decades, the fundamental ordering principles of international politics and the
basic elements of American Grand strategy remained static. The boundary
between the Eastern and Western blocs came to define mutually exclusive zones
of military protection, economic production, and relative political homogeneity”
(Oye, 1992). The Gulf War was the first war fought by the United States, the sole
29
Farda, “What Happened To Freedom After Iran’s Islamic Revolution?”
30
Khan Academy. “The Gulf War (Article) | 1990s America | Khan Academy,” n.d.
https://www.khanacademy.org/humanities/us-history/modern-us/1990s-america/a/the-gulf-war.
14
superpower of the newly emerging international system, against Iraq which was
the only aggressor and serious threat to the status quo backed by the United States
in the Persian Gulf zone.
31
Misachi, “Persian Gulf.”
32
Otterman, Sharon. IRAQ: Oil. Council on Foreign Relations, (February 3, 2005).
https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/iraq-oil-0.
33
Laub, Zachary. The Iraq War. Council on Foreign Relations,
https://www.cfr.org/timeline/iraq-war.
15
Figure 534, U.S. led Marines patrol the streets of Fallujah, Iraq, in December
2004.
It was succeeded by a longer second phase in which an insurgency fought against
an occupation of Iraq led by the United States. After violence began to decline in
200735, the United States gradually reduced its military presence in Iraq, formally
completing its withdrawal in December 2011.36
5.6.3. The Arab Spring in 2011, a series of anti-government protests and uprisings, led
to significant political changes in several countries, including Syria, Egypt, and
Libya. During the Arab Spring that started at the end of 2010, the Middle East
quickly turned into a field of struggle between global and regional powers, and
each power involved in the events sought their own interests in the region.
Especially in Syria, which is the last ring of the Arab Spring, internal conflicts
have turned into "proxy wars"37 on a global scale and have become chaos. A
young Tunisian street vendor named Muhammad Bouazizi38, who is an engineer, is
34
Nadeem, Reem. “20 Years After Iraq War Began, a Look Back at U.S. Public Opinion | Pew Research
Center.” Pew Research Center - U.S. Politics & Policy, (March 14, 2023).
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/03/14/a-look-back-at-how-fear-and-false-beliefs-bolstered-u-s-publi
c-support-for-war-in-iraq/.
35
Nadeem, “20 Years After Iraq War Began, a Look Back at U.S. Public Opinion | Pew Research Center.”
36
Encyclopædia Britannica, inc. (2023b, November 13). Iraq War. Encyclopædia Britannica.
https://www.britannica.com/event/Iraq-War
37
Encyclopædia Britannica, inc. (2023a, October 26). Proxy War. Encyclopædia Britannica.
https://www.britannica.com/topic/proxy-war
38
Encyclopædia Britannica, inc. (n.d.). Mohamed Bouazizi. Encyclopædia Britannica.
https://www.britannica.com/biography/Mohamed-Bouazizi
16
a street vendor. He set himself on fire and committed suicide in November 2010
as a result of his property being confiscated and being slapped and humiliated by
the police officer. This incident caused the Tunisian people to revolt against the
authoritarian rule and the overthrow of Tunisian President Zeynel Bin Abidin39 on
January 14, 2011.40 (QadirMushtaq, A., & Afzal, M. (2017). Arab spring: Its
causes and consequences. Journal of the Punjab University Historical Society,
30(1), 1-10. ) With all this, the uprisings were not limited to Tunisia, but spread to
the Middle East and North African countries with a domino effect, putting the
region into an irreversible process. In this context, the demonstrations first spread
to Egypt, and after the 18-day "Tahrir Resistance"41, Hosni Mubarak42 had to
leave the office. After Egypt, demonstrations started in Libya, where the tribal
structure was dominant, but the revolution process took place differently in Libya
than in others. Following long-term conflicts in the country, NATO intervened in
the region. When the events broke out in Bahrain after three countries, the regime
intervened very harshly there, and the government received the support of the
Saudi Arabian administration. The uprisings were suppressed as a result of harsh
interventions. The Yemen demonstrations that followed Bahrain managed to
unseat the president, just like in Egypt and Libya. In Syria, where the events took
place for the longest time, the situation has become chaotic and has reached an
inextricable point. Exploding suddenly and spreading rapidly riots; It emerged as a
reaction against the political, economic inequalities and authoritarian regimes in
the region.43 (Uzun, E. (2011). Iran’s Foreign Policy in Iraq and Syria after 2011.
In the Global Relations Forum. Analysis Paper Series) When the economic
difficulties arising from the increasing food prices and the increasing
unemployment day by day, combined with democracy problems such as political
freedom; The angry people caught fire at the first spark.
39
Encyclopædia Britannica, inc. (n.d.-b). Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali. Encyclopædia Britannica.
https://www.britannica.com/biography/Zine-al-Abidine-Ben-Ali
40
Arab spring: Its causes and Consequences - University of the Punjab. (n.d.).
http://pu.edu.pk/images/journal/HistoryPStudies/PDF_Files/01_V-30-No1-Jun17.pdf
41
Street arts of resistance in Tahrir and Gezi - Taylor & Francis Online. (n.d.-b).
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00263206.2017.1299007
42
Encyclopædia Britannica, inc. (n.d.-a). Hosni Mubarak. Encyclopædia Britannica.
https://www.britannica.com/biography/Hosni-Mubarak
43
Ezgi Uzun, Iran’s Foreign Policy in Iraq and Syria after 2011, accessed January 2, 2024,
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Ezgi-Uzun/publication/338773205_Iran%27s_Foreign_Policy_in_Iraq_and
_Syria_after_2011/links/5e2991d0299bf15216770684/Irans-Foreign-Policy-in-Iraq-and-Syria-after-2011.pdf.
17
6. Current Situation Analysis
6.1. Overview of Current Tensions in the Middle East
The United Nations has played a significant role in addressing the enduring conflict
between Israel and Palestine, and the UN has been actively involved in seeking a peaceful
resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict. The Middle East today is characterized by a
complex web of tensions and conflicts, influenced by both internal dynamics and external
interventions. Key issues include ongoing conflicts in Syria and Yemen, the Israel-Palestine
situation, and the broader Sunni-Shia divide, primarily represented by the rivalry between
Saudi Arabia and Iran. These tensions are further complicated by global interests in the
region's oil reserves and strategic location.
On October 7, 2023, armed Palestinian groups in Gaza launched thousands of rockets in
Israel's direction.44 They also broke through the border fence several times, penetrating Israeli
towns and murdering and capturing both Israeli forces and civilians. Following the
declaration of "a state of war alert," the Israeli military started attacking homes and medical
institutions in the Gaza Strip.
44
Najjar, Farah, and Adam Muro. “Israel-Hamas War Updates: Over 175 Killed as Israeli Resumes Gaza
Attacks.” Al Jazeera, December 6, 2023.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2023/12/1/israel-hamas-war-live-relief-and-joy-as-more-palestinian-pr
isoners-freed.
45
UN News. “Rafah Crossing, Aid ‘Lifeline’ into Gaza,” October 20, 2023.
https://news.un.org/en/gallery/1142597.
46
United Nations. Israel-Gaza Crisis (n.d.)
https://www.un.org/en/situation-in-occupied-palestine-and-israel.
18
Time is running out to prevent genocide and humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza, officials
warned today, expressing deep frustration with Israel’s refusal to halt plans to decimate the
besieged Gaza Strip.47 “We remain convinced that the Palestinian people are at grave risk of
genocide,” the officials said. “The time for action is now. Israel’s allies also bear
responsibility and must act now to prevent its disastrous course of action,” they said.48 The
experts expressed “deepening horror” about Israeli airstrikes against the Jabalia refugee
camp49 in northern Gaza since Tuesday (31 October) night, which have reportedly killed and
injured hundreds of Palestinians, calling it a brazen breach of international law.
Figure 750, showing explosion at Gaza, Jabalia refugee camp leaves massive crater.
“The Israeli airstrike on a residential complex in the Jabalia refugee camp is a brazen
violation of international law – and a war crime. Attacking a camp sheltering civilians
including women and children is a complete breach of the rules of proportionality and
distinction between combatants and civilians,”51 the officials said. The experts welcomed the
General Assembly resolution. The draft resolution voted in the United Nations (UN) General
Assembly demanding the protection of civilians, support of civilians, and an urgent ceasefire
47
Encyclopædia Britannica, inc. (2023, December 27). Gaza Strip. Encyclopædia Britannica.
https://www.britannica.com/place/Gaza-Strip
48
United Nations. (n.d.). Gaza is “running out of Time” UN experts warn, demanding a ceasefire to prevent
genocide - question of Palestine. United Nations.
https://www.un.org/unispal/document/gaza-is-running-out-of-time-un-experts-warn-demanding-a-ceasefire-to-pr
event-genocide/
49
Jabalia Camp | unrwa. (n.d.-b). https://www.unrwa.org/where-we-work/gaza-strip/jabalia-camp
50
Gritten, Jabalia: Israel Air Strike Reportedly Kills Dozens at Gaza Refugee Camp.
51
Gaza is “running out of Time” UN experts warn, demanding a ceasefire to prevent genocide [en/ar] - occupied
Palestinian territory. ReliefWeb. (2023, November 2).
https://reliefweb.int/report/occupied-palestinian-territory/gaza-running-out-time-un-experts-warn-demanding-ce
asefire-prevent-genocide-enar
19
in Gaza became one of the largest international agreements adopted in the General Assembly
with 153 ‘‘yes’’ votes.52
Figure 853, Felipe Results of the General Assembly's vote on the resolution on “Protection of
civilians and upholding legal and humanitarian obligations” during the resumed 10th
Emergency Special Session on 12 December 2023. UN Photo/Loey.
“We received the resolution with hope, but the need for action is now,” they said. According
to officials, Gaza's population no longer has access to clean drinking water because of the
lack of fuel and the destruction of water infrastructure caused by three weeks of non-stop
shelling.54 They also stated that approximately 2 million Gazans have difficulty accessing
clean water55. The officials strongly supported the UN Secretary General’s efforts to provide
access to humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip. In addition, they demanded the immediate
release of all civilians detained since October 7th, when Hamas56 militants attacked Israeli
settlements. US faces further criticism over ceasefire resolution veto there’s been more
52
Oct. 27: Palestinians claim Israeli tanks exchanging fire with gunmen ... (n.d.-c).
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-october-27-2023/
53
“UN General Assembly Votes by Large Majority for Immediate Humanitarian Ceasefire during Emergency
Session.”
https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/12/1144717
54
2023, 22 December. (2023, December 22). Facts and figures: Women and girls during the war in Gaza. UN
Women – Headquarters.
https://www.unwomen.org/en/news-stories/feature-story/2023/10/facts-and-figures-women-and-girls-during-the-
war-in-gaza?gad_source=1&gclid=CjwKCAiAs6-sBhBmEiwA1Nl8szz7TF0Ks9wlKz3xNuN5jZT-EqXfBfn_v
Nz1zd8IQHJlzlCFi-YMBBoCqI8QAvD_BwE
55
Oxfam International. “Failing Gaza: Undrinkable Water, No Access to Toilets and Little Hope on the Horizon
| Oxfam International,” May 25, 2022.
https://www.oxfam.org/en/failing-gaza-undrinkable-water-no-access-toilets-and-little-hope-horizon.
56
Encyclopædia Britannica, inc. (2023e, December 20). Hamas. Encyclopædia Britannica.
https://www.britannica.com/topic/Hamas
20
reaction to a move by the US to veto a resolution at the UN Security Council, which called
for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire.
The leader of the Palestinian Authority (PA) Mahmoud Abbas alleged that the move made the
US complicit in what he called war crimes. (The PA governor's areas of the West Bank57 not
under Israeli control and is separate to the Hamas government which operates in Gaza)
Iran condemned the US for its support of Israel and warned of an ‘uncontrollable explosion’
of the situation in the Middle East58.
A group of Arab nations who earlier met America’s delegation, called on the US to pressure
Israel into a ceasefire, stressing the importance of international humanitarian law.
But Israel has praised the US; in an earlier statement from the foreign minister echoed the
American view that the ceasefire would have helped Hamas stay in power in Gaza.
The UK also echoed the US, saying it could not vote in favor of a resolution that does not
condemn ‘‘the atrocities Hamas committed.’’59 Civilian casualties in the Israeli attacks, which
carried out air and ground operations in the Gaza Strip with the aim of ‘destroying Hamas’
approached 20 thousand. 60
There has been an armed conflict in Syria between the government and rebel parties since
March 201161. The long-lasting crisis began when the administration of President Bashar
al-Assad62 brutally put down protests in 2011. This swiftly spiraled out of control and became
an internationalized national conflict marked by widespread crimes against humanity,
including the unlawful use of chemical weapons. Russian airstrikes have been supporting
Syrian government forces throughout the fight since September 2015.63 At least 580,000
57
Encyclopedia Britannica. “West Bank | History, Population, Map, Settlements, & Facts,” n.d.
https://www.britannica.com/place/West-Bank.
58
UN News. UN Security Council Meets on Israel-Palestine Crisis; Nowhere Safe in Gaza, (October 31, 2023).
https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/10/1143002.
59
BBC News. “Israel-Gaza: UN Warns Half of Gazans Starving, as Israeli Hostage Confirmed Dead - BBC
News,” December 9, 2023. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-middle-east-67653615.
60
https://apnews.com/article/israel-gaza-bombs-destruction-death-toll-scope-419488c511f83c85baea22458472a7
96
61
BBC News. Why Has the Syrian War Lasted 12 Years?, (May 2, 2023).
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35806229.
62
Encyclopedia Britannica. “Bashar Al-Assad | Family, Biography, & Facts,” n.d.
https://www.britannica.com/biography/Bashar-al-Assad.
63
ReliefWeb. “Syrian-Russian Alliance Forces Have Committed Violations That Constitute Crimes Against
Humanity and War Crimes Through Unlawful Attacks Against Northwestern Syria - Syrian Arab Republic,”
October 13, 2023.
https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/syrian-russian-alliance-forces-have-committed-violations-constit
ute-crimes-against-humanity-and-war-crimes-through-unlawful-attacks-against-northwestern-syria.
21
people have died since the conflict began, including an estimated 306,887 civilian deaths
between 1 March 2011 and 31 March 2021, according to the most recent numbers available
from the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights regarding civilian
casualties. Updated data collection is hampered by resource, access, and logistical issues in
casualty recording. 6.7 million Syrian refugees are among the over 13 million displaced
individuals. Along numerous regional frontlines, including those in southern, northwest, and
northeast Syria, Syrians are regularly subjected to rising conflicts and unrest. Despite a truce
that has been in effect since March 202064airstrikes, shelling, and ground combat have
persisted throughout northwest Syria, particularly in the Idlib province. Over the past year,
hundreds of people have been killed and injured by improvised explosive devices,
indiscriminate shelling, and airstrikes in northern Syria. Meanwhile, confrontations and
strikes between the SNA(Syrian National Army) and the Syrian Defense Forces (SDF) have
escalated. 65
Since August 2022, the government has also maintained a blockade in northern Aleppo,
causing tens of thousands of civilians—including internally displaced people—to experience
severe shortages of gasoline, humanitarian aid, and medical supplies. In addition, the armed
extremist group Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, the "Organization for the Liberation of the Levant,"
was founded at the beginning of the Syrian civil war and has remained a formidable
opposition organization ever since is still abusing people by torturing and mistreating
detainees, as well as by arbitrarily detained activists and journalists.66
64
Syria, https://www.globalr2p.org/countries/syria/
65
Syria, Global Centre For The Responsibility Project
66
Syria, Global Centre For The Responsibility Project
22
Figure 967, showing Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham fighters in northern Idlib.
The so-called Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) declared a caliphate over Syria and
Iraq in 2014 (ISIS), abusing citizens severely until they were militarily routed in 2019 from
their last area of control. At least 52,000 people, mostly women and children, remain
imprisoned in filthy facilities maintained by the SDF, which has the support of the Kurds.
The UN Special Rapporteur on the promotion and protection of human rights and
fundamental freedoms while countering terrorism has reported that the indefinite detention of
children without access to a court system likely amounts to fundamental breaches of the
children's rights under international law. The humanitarian situation caused by the Syrian
civil conflict is far from over, despite dwindling concern from other countries. According to
UN estimates, 13.1 million people require aid. The humanitarian catastrophe, which will
endure if Syria does not find the resources to start rebuilding, has now been made worse by
the deadly earthquakes that struck early on February 2.68
Saudi Arabia leads the coalition formed against the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, where
one of the world's greatest human tragedies is taking place. The Yemeni government, led by
the Arab coalition led by Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni Presidential Council, controls all of
the coastal cities on the Arabian Sea coast, extending from the strategic Bab el-Mandeb69 of
Ta'izz70 in the southwest of the country to the Oman border. Government forces, which
control the provinces, also control the oil-rich Marib city of the country, (as well as part of
Cevf and the provinces of Dali and Shabwa.) The Houthis71, who are fighting against the
government in Yemen, hold the capital Sanaa, and surrounding provinces, which they
captured on September 21, 2014. The Houthis are one of the most important players in the
conflicts in Yemen. The Houthis, the most powerful militia group in Yemen, consists of Shiite
67
Al-Aswad, Harun. “Civil War within Civil War: HTS Battles Rival Militants, Defectors in Syria’s Idlib.”
Middle East Eye, June 27, 2020.
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/syria-idlib-hts-operations-room-rival-militants.
68
Paul Poast. “The Syrian Civil War’s Never-Ending Endgame.” World Politics Review, November 3, 2023.
https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/on-abortion-us-has-damaged-its-international-standing/
69
Encyclopedia Britannica. “Bab El-Mandeb Strait | Map, Location, & Facts,” n.d.
https://www.britannica.com/place/Bab-El-Mandeb-Strait.
70
Encyclopedia Britannica. “Taʿizz | Ancient City & Cultural Hub,” n.d.
https://www.britannica.com/place/Taizz.
71
Wilson Center. “Who Are Yemen’s Houthis?,” December 16, 2023.
https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/who-are-yemens-houthis.
23
Zaydis.72 Houthis, who are active in the northern region of Yemen, continued to increase their
influence throughout the country by taking control of the capital city of Sanaa last year.
6.1.1. Houthi-Saudi Tensions
The Houthi movement emerged in northern Yemen in the 1990s, in part, as a reaction
to rising Saudi financial and religious influence. The Houthis entered Saudi Arabia in
November 2009 as part of their uprising against the central authority of Yemen. The Saudi
army deployed overseas without an ally for the first time. The Saudis engaged in group
combat as well as airstrikes against the rebels. Over 130 Saudis died. In March 2015, the
Saudi-Houthi conflict entered its second major phase. Airstrikes against Houthi targets in
Yemen were carried out by a coalition headed by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates
(UAE).
Figure 1073, smoke billows from the site of Saudi-led air strikes in Sanaa, Yemen March 7,
2021.
Despite U.N efforts to mediate peace negotiations, the conflict between the Houthis and the
internationally recognized government of Yemen and its allies continued.74 Early in 2022, the
Houthis used ballistic missiles and drones to target the United Arab Emirates, expanding the
scope of the conflict. On January 24, the Houthis fired two ballistic missiles toward Abu
72
Minority Rights Group. “Zaydi Shi’a - Minority Rights Group,” n.d.
https://minorityrights.org/minorities/zaydi-shias/.
73
Chmaytelli, Maher. Saudi-Led Coalition Says Bombs Houthi Targets in Yemen. REUTERS, (March 7, 2021).
https://www.reuters.com/world/saudi-led-coalition-says-bombs-houthi-targets-yemen-2021-03-07/.
74
Yemen Houthis, Wilson Center
24
Dhabi, which were intercepted by American and Emirati armed troops. In response, the 2,000
American soldiers stationed at Al Dharfa Air Base75 took cover in bunkers and fired Patriot
missiles. According to a Houthi representative, the UAE has "become an unsafe country."
Iranian officials have supported the Houthis’ and compared the group to Hezbollah. One in
every three people in Yemen is Zaydi76. Until 1962, Zaydis lived under the rule of an Imam in
the mountainous regions of northern Yemen. In 2004, Zaydis gathered around the Houthi
tribe and started a rebellion against the central government in Sanaa. The Arab Spring also
stirred Yemen. Hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets against President Ali
Abdullah Saleh77, who had been in power for years. Salih, who was weak in Sana'a, lost his
seat to Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi 78. Al Qaeda,79 which the United States considers to be the
most dangerous terrorist group, operates with great effectiveness in Yemen. Al Qaeda is one
of the most potent militant organizations in Yemen; it has been conducting assaults for 15
years.
75
Pike, John. “Al Dhafra Air Base.” Al Dhafra Air Base, n.d.
https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/facility/dhafra.htm.
76
Zaydi Shias, Minority Rights
77
Encyclopedia Britannica. “Ali Abdullah Saleh | Biography & Facts,” November 30, 2023.
https://www.britannica.com/biography/Ali-Abdullah-Saleh.
78
Encyclopedia Britannica. “ʿAbd Rabbuh Manṣūr Hadī | President of Yemen,” n.d.
https://www.britannica.com/biography/Abd-Rabbuh-Mansur-Hadi.
79
Nctc. “National Counterterrorism Center | Groups,” n.d. https://www.dni.gov/nctc/groups/al_qaida.html.
25
Figure 1180, map of the Al Qaeda attack and support zones.
Al Qaeda is fighting against the Houthis and President Hadi's forces. Al Qaeda's biggest rival
in Yemen is ISIS. The organization, which has been organizing in the country since 2014,
carried out its biggest action in Yemen. The extremist armed group Islamic State (ISIS) has
committed widespread and systematic abuses in areas under its control in Syria, Iraq, and
Libya. ISIS has also claimed responsibility for deadly attacks in nearly 20 other countries,
including Afghanistan, Egypt, France, Indonesia, Tajikistan, and the United Kingdom.
Human Rights Watch documents these abuses and their impact on the general population81.
6.2. Major Conflicts and Flashpoints
6.2.1. Syrian Civil War: Beginning in 2011, the Syrian conflict has drawn in multiple
regional and international actors, causing significant humanitarian crises. For
years now, the Syrian civil war, which has destroyed the nation for over ten years,
80
Critical Threats. “Al Qaeda’s Base in Yemen,” n.d.
https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/al-qaedas-base-in-yemen.
81
“ISIS | Human Rights Watch,” n.d. https://www.hrw.org/tag/isis.
26
sparked a humanitarian crisis in the region and attracted parties from Russia to the
United States, has been inevitably coming to an end.
Figure 1282, children sitting in front of a Graffiti depicting the tenth year of Syrian
civil war is seen in Idlib.
With the support of Iran and Russia, President Bashar al-Assad has emerged from
the fight with a military victory. The crisis started in 201183 when his
administration forcefully put down protests by civilians.
82
Laub, Zachary. “Syria’s Civil War.” Council on Foreign Relations, October 15, 2019.
https://www.cfr.org/article/syrias-civil-war.
83
World Politics Review. “The Syrian Civil War’s Never-Ending Endgame,” November 7, 2023.
https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/the-syria-civil-war-might-be-ending-but-the-crisis-will-live-on/.
27
Figure 1384, People demonstrate against the Assad regime in the besieged town of
Al Qsair, near Homs, in January 2012.
The ensuing armed insurgency quickly turned into a regional and international
proxy conflict, culminating in the Islamic State and other radical Islamist
organizations taking control of large portions of the nation. They subsequently lost
nearly all of the land they had control over as a result of persistent
counteroffensives by forces loyal to the government and a coalition of Western
forces commanded by the United States.85 In areas outside the regime's control,
extremists advocating a Sunni Muslim theocracy have supplanted opposition
forces fighting for a democratic and pluralistic Syria, while regional powers have
backed various local forces to advance their geopolitical interests on Syria's
battlefields. These seemingly irreconcilable interests have caused fragmentation in
the country today.86 Leading a coalition that carried out airstrikes against the
self-declared Islamic State, the United States withdrew some of its forces in 2019
in anticipation of Turkiye, an ally of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization
(NATO),87 invading northern Syria. Since then, the Turkish military has driven out
Kurdish fighters, who are the principal local ally of the United States in the war
against the Islamic State.
84
Laub, Zachary. “Syria’s Civil War”, Council on Foreign Relations
85
Syrian Civil War, World Politics Review
86
Laub, Zachary. “Syria’s Civil War”, Council on Foreign Relations
87
Laub, Zachary. “Syria’s Civil War”, Council on Foreign Relations
28
Figure 1488, in this Monday, Oct. 14, 2019 photo, Turkish troops deploy in Syria''s
northern region of Manbij. Syrian state media said Tuesday that government
forces have entered the center of the once Kurdish-held northern town of Manbij
and raised the national flag.
Russia has also conducted airstrikes in Syria in support of the Assad government.
On the ground, Iranian forces and their allies in Hezbollah have done the same,
thereby putting themselves at risk of Israeli strikes. The conflict that once made
headlines for its brutality has come to an uneasy stalemate. With the failure of
peace negotiations and the waning of hopes for regime change, some regional
states are now warming to the idea of holding discussions with Syrian President
Bashar al-Assad. Most of the country is back under government control, and
Assad's grasp on power appears solid. The Syrian people are currently going
through a severe economic crisis, and a significant earthquake at the beginning of
2023 further destabilized the country's northern population.89 There was a great
deal of pain and a significant impact on the civilian population. The majority of
Syrians faced serious and varied humanitarian needs as a result of the severity of
the repression and the high intensity of the armed war, which also affected the
socioeconomic situation and welfare capabilities of neighboring States.90 A
commission of inquiry into Syria was established by the United Nations Human
Rights Council in August.91 The commission obtains its information from sources
outside of Syria, having never been allowed admission. Throughout the conflict,
the Independent International Commission of Inquiry (COI) has monitored
violations of International humanitarian law (IHL) and human rights, as well as
the effects they have on civilians. The inaugural report from the COI covered the
months of March through November 2011.92 Every infraction was ascribed to the
Government side of the dispute in this report. The panel concluded that
government violence was likely to constitute grave breaches of international
88
“Turkey’s Military Operation in Syria: All the Latest Updates.” Al Jazeera, October 15, 2019.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/10/15/turkeys-military-operation-in-syria-all-the-latest-updates-5.
89
Laub, Zachary. “Syria’s Civil War”, Council on Foreign Relations
90
Syria crisis common context analysis - interagencystandingcommittee.org, accessed January 2, 2024,
https://interagencystandingcommittee.org/sites/default/files/migrated/2016-11/syria_crisis_common_context_an
alysis_june_2014.pdf.
91
The Commission was set up by the UN Human Rights Council on 22 August 2011 and has reported seven
times to date. See www.ohchr.org/EN/HRBodies/HRC/IICISyria/Pages/AboutCoI.aspx
92
See http://daccess-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/G11/170/97/PDF/G1117097.pdf?OpenElement
29
human rights law as well as crimes against humanity at the end of its first report,
which was released in November 2011.93
6.2.2. Yemen Crisis: The conflict in Yemen, often seen as a proxy war between Saudi
Arabia and Iran, has led to one of the world's worst humanitarian crises. The
Houthi insurgents, who are Shiite rebels with ties to Iran and a history of rebelling
against the Sunni government, took over Yemen's capital and largest city, Sana'a,
in 2014 and demanded lower gasoline prices and a new administration. This
marked the beginning of the country's civil war. President Abd Rabbu Mansour
Hadi and his administration were forced to resign in January 2015 when the rebels
captured the presidential palace after fruitless negotiations. With U.S. logistical
and intelligence support, a coalition of Gulf states led by Saudi Arabia began an
airstrike and campaign of economic isolation against the Houthi rebels in March
2015.94 While there has been less fighting in Yemen in 2023 between the Houthi
rebels and the Saudi coalition supporting the country's internationally recognized
government, the Houthis have attacked ships passing through the Red Sea on
multiple occasions in retaliation for Israel's war on Hamas.95
93
ibid paragraphs 84, 108.
94
Global Conflict Tracker. “War in Yemen | Global Conflict Tracker,” n.d.
https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/war-yemen.
95
War in Yemen, Council on Foreign Relations
30
Figure 1596, The Houthis’ ongoing asymmetric maritime insurgent tactics threaten
security in the southern Red Sea, allowing the Houthis and their Iranian backers
to challenge their adversaries in the strategically vital waterway.
There is hope for a negotiated resolution thanks to talks between the Houthis and
Saudi Arabia and the rehabilitation of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
However, the discussions have been violent at times and have not produced much
progress. The prospects for peace have been complicated by the Southern
Transitional Council's (STC) continued calls for an independent state in southern
Yemen; also, attacks by al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) have
increased. The humanitarian situation has not gotten any better in the interim;
more than 4.5 million people are internally displaced and 21.6 million people,
including 11 million children, require aid.97 Iran and Saudi Arabia, who are on
opposing sides of the conflict, have both been involved in Yemen. As part of a
coalition effort, the Saudis dispatched troops into Yemen in 2015 following the
overthrow of their ally, acting president Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, by the
Houthis.98 The Houthis, a fellow Shiite group that already controls large portions
of northern Yemen and aspires to take control of the entire nation, have the
backing of the Iranian government.
96
Truitte, View All Posts By Kevin. “The Red Sea Insurgency: The Asymmetrical Houthi Threat to the Strategic
Waterway.” Georgetown Security Studies Review, July 22, 2019.
https://georgetownsecuritystudiesreview.org/2018/12/21/the-red-sea-insurgency-the-asymmetrical-houthi-threat-
to-the-strategic-waterway/.
97
War in Yemen, Council on Foreign Relations
98
Crisis Group. “The Conflict in Yemen Is More Than a Proxy War,” July 27, 2023.
https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/gulf-and-arabian-peninsula/yemen/conflict-yemen-more-pr
oxy-war.
31
Figure 1699, A man waves traditional daggers, or jambiyas, during a mass rally
by supporters of the Houthi movement and former Yemeni President Ali Abdullah
Saleh in Sanaa.
It has been almost hard to unravel this intricate proxy battle, which is why the
April talks were so hopeful. The meeting between the Saudis and the Houthi
rebels was dubbed "the closest Yemen has been to real progress toward lasting
peace" since the start of the war by UN special envoy Hans Grundberg. A major
portion of the breakthrough can be attributed to an abrupt change on the Saudi
end. In April 2022, Riyadh supported a truce arranged by the UN; it officially
ended in October, but it has lasted for the most part.100 Serious conversations were
made possible by a period of relative calm on the Saudi border. The Saudi
delegation’s April visit to Sanaa, and an Omani-backed mediation effort that
preceded it, showcased Riyadh’s determination to abandon its military campaign
and seek a way out of the war. A Beijing-brokered agreement101 between Tehran
and Riyadh in April restored diplomatic relations between the two countries and
reinforced this new approach.
99
Times, Japan. “Iran Steps up Support for Shiite Ally in Yemen Proxy War.” The Japan Times, March 28,
2017.
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/03/29/world/iran-steps-support-shiite-ally-yemen-proxy-war/.
100
Conflict in Yemen, Crisis Group
101
Golkar, Saeid, and Kasra Aarabi. “The Real Motivation Behind Iran’s China-Brokered Deal With Saudi
Arabia.” Foreign Policy, April 28, 2023.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/04/06/iran-saudi-arabia-deal-agreement-china-meeting-beijing/.
32
6.2.3. Israel-Palestine Dispute: This long-standing conflict continues to be a central
issue in the region, with periodic escalations causing regional instability/ There
have been flashpoints in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict for over a century, ranging
from the first UN Partition Plan in 1947 to the Yom Kippur War102 in 1973 and the
most recent Israel-Hamas war that broke out in October 2023.103
Figure 17104, Houthis gather during a military manoeuvre near Sana'a, Yemen, on
30 Oct 2023.
102
“Milestones: 1969–1976- Office of the Historian,” n.d.
https://history.state.gov/milestones/1969-1976/arab-israeli-war-1973.
103
World101 from the Council on Foreign Relations. “Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Timeline,” November 29,
1947. https://world101.cfr.org/understanding-international-system/conflict/israeli-palestinian-conflict-timeline.
104
Deshpande, Smruti, and Smruti Deshpande. “Who Are Houthis? Yemen Group That’s Declared War on Israel
& How It Plays into Iran-Saudi Proxy War.” ThePrint, November 4, 2023.
https://theprint.in/theprint-essential/who-are-houthis-yemen-group-thats-declared-war-on-israel-how-it-plays-int
o-iran-saudi-proxy-war/1831504/.
105
https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/israeli-palestinian-conflict
33
neighbors.106 Israel triumphs decisively, suffering only seven hundred casualties
compared to roughly twenty thousand for its opponents. Israel emerges victorious,
controlling all of East Jerusalem along with the mostly Palestinian-populated West
Bank and Gaza Strip. Israel also seizes control of the Sinai Peninsula, which is a
portion of Egypt, and the Golan Heights in Syria. Israel intends to remain on the
Sinai Peninsula till April of 1982.107 A violent outburst broke out in Israel on
October 7, 2023,108 following an extraordinary surprise strike by Hamas. The
conflict's early strikes, according to Israeli media, were the bloodiest attack in
Israel in decades, with at least 250 people killed and 1,500 injured. Hamas also
kidnapped over 250 Israelis and held them as captives.109
7.1.2. United Kingdom: The United Kingdom's role in the Middle East, intricately
woven into its historical narrative and NATO responsibilities, showcases a
sophisticated interplay of deep-rooted influences and modern strategic
imperatives. The UK's initial engagement, tracing back to post-World War I,
established a foundation for its prolonged influence in the region, notably through
mandates in Palestine and Iraq. This historical context has shaped its
106
Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Timeline, World101
107
Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Timeline, World101
108
Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Timeline, World101
109
Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Timeline, World101
34
contemporary approach, which encompasses a rigorous military campaign,
notably the targeted airstrikes against ISIS in Syria and Iraq since 2014 and 2015,
respectively. This military commitment is paralleled by the UK's adept diplomatic
involvement, as evidenced in its crucial role in the Iran nuclear deal of 2015 and
its consistent efforts towards facilitating a resolution in the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict. The UK's nuanced strategy, artfully blending its rich historical legacy
with assertive military and diplomatic actions, underlines its commitment to
safeguarding regional stability and security. This approach, harmoniously aligning
with both its national policy objectives and NATO's broader regional aims,
highlights the UK's dynamic role as a guardian of historical interests and a
proactive player in addressing contemporary Middle Eastern challenges.
7.1.3. France and Germany: France and Germany, as prominent NATO members,
demonstrate distinct yet complementary actions in the Middle East. France has
been actively involved in military operations, such as their participation in the
international coalition against ISIS in Syria and Iraq, and its military intervention
in Libya, with the UNSC. Additionally, France engages in diplomatic efforts, like
mediating the Lebanon crisis.
35
Figure 18 110, France’s foreign minister Catherine Colonna travels to Lebanon,
left, as part of diplomatic efforts by President Emmanuel Macron’s government to
help contain the Middle East conflict.
Germany, with a more cautious approach to military involvement, focuses on
humanitarian aid and development assistance, exemplified by its substantial
contributions to refugee support in Syria and neighboring countries, and its role in
diplomatic efforts, such as the Iran nuclear deal negotiations. These examples
underscore their dedication to aligning national policies with NATO's regional
objectives, blending military, diplomatic, and humanitarian strategies.
7.1.4. Turkiye: Turkiye's strategic ambitions in the Middle East, as a pivotal NATO
member, encompass a blend of geopolitical assertiveness and security
pragmatism.
36
primary concern is the kurdish insurgency, intertwining with NATO's interest in
regional stability. Ankara's proactive engagement in the Syrian conflict, targeting
both ISIS and Kurdish factions, underscores its border security imperatives.
Simultaneously, Turkiye adeptly balances intricate relations with Iraq and Iran,
critical for regional equilibrium and resonating with NATO's broader strategic
objectives. Additionally, Turkiye's humanitarian stance is evident in managing
substantial refugee influxes, a testament to its commitment to regional
humanitarian needs. Expanding its military footprint, with bases in Qatar112 and
Somalia113, Turkiye elevates its strategic capacity, aligning with NATO's position.
This multifaceted approach, encompassing security, diplomacy, and humanitarian
aspects, delineates Turkiye's nuanced and influential position within NATO's
framework in the Middle East.
Although a critical ally in many ways, Turkiye is a hard ally to keep for NATO.
Turkiye sometimes has views different from the perspective of NATO, it has been
mentioned before that some of the members have their doubts about keeping
Turkiye as a member in the alliance. This phenomena has happened before
numerous times, the dispute in the Syrian Civil War was one the cases that
brought two sides against each other. It happened because NATO wanted to
combat ISIS through the kurdish rebel forces also known as SDF114, which is
another branch of Turkiye's utmost terrorist threat PKK or Kurdish Workers Party,
according to Turkish Officials115. This conflict was resolved when ISIS was
controlled as a threat; having no alternate purpose to NATO, there was no need to
negotiate with Turkiye to keep the SDF soldiers safe anymore116. Although
disagreement of ideas may be challenging at times but the ability or reflex to have
opinions differ from NATO, is what makes Turkiye a great and a powerful ally117.
112
Murdock, Heather. “Turkey Opens First Mideast Military Base in Qatar.” Voice of America, May 11, 2016.
https://www.voanews.com/a/turkey-opens-first-middle-east-military-base-in-qatar/3323653.html.
113
Independent Türkçe. “Her Yedi Askerden Biri Sınırların Ötesinde: TSK’nın Yurtdışındaki,” n.d.
https://www.indyturk.com/node/316736/her-yedi-askerden-biri-s%C4%B1n%C4%B1rlar%C4%B1n-%C3%B6t
esinde-tskn%C4%B1n-.
114
U.S. Department of Defense. “U.S., Partners Find Success in Mission to Defeat ISIS,” n.d.
https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3266973/us-partners-find-success-in-mission-to-de
feat-isis/.
115
Repıblic of Türkiye Ministry of Foreign Affairs, PKK, https://www.mfa.gov.tr/pkk.en.mfa
116
Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW), Syria: renewed tensions between Turkey and the US,
https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2023-10-16/syria-renewed-tensions-between-turkey-and-us
117
Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Turkey - NATO Together for Peace and Security Since 60
Years, https://www.mfa.gov.tr/turkey-nato-together-for-peace-and-security-since60-years.en.mfa
37
7.2. Middle Eastern Countries: Political Landscape and Relationships with NATO
7.2.1. Saudi Arabia: A key ally118 for many NATO members, influential in the region's
politics and the global oil market119. Saudi Arabia maintains strategic alliances
with several NATO members120. These relationships are frequently characterized
by defense and security cooperation, intelligence sharing, and arms sales. The
nature of these relationships can vary, but Saudi Arabia has historically been a
major buyer of military equipment121 from Western countries, including NATO
members.
7.2.2. Iran: Often at odds with NATO policies, Iran's regional ambitions and nuclear
program are central to Middle Eastern geopolitics, and easily one of the key
players in the region because of Iran’s connections and support to the armed
non-governmental forces in the region such as Hezbollah. Iran has a different
agenda than other countries in the region. Iran wants obsolete power of Shia
Muslims in the region, therefore, the biggest representative of Shia Muslims
should be the most influential country, which is Iran for Iranians. Therefore Iran
has funded Hezbollah to have influence in the Middle East.122
7.2.3. Israel: A non-NATO country but a crucial partner for many NATO members,
especially in security matters, their highly trained and advanced military123 is
sometimes the reason for this, but not the only one. The Israelis have deep
connections in the political world124,they are a nation that has been negotiating and
lobbying for a country without a flag since the 1900s. Over time this has led to a
powerful, in the ways of money and influence, connections with the leaders of the
modern world on diplomatic efforts. Therefore a powerful state in the region.
118
@politico. “U.S. May Raise Arab States to ‘major’ Ally Status.” U.S. may raise Arab states to “major” ally
status - POLITICO, May 14, 2015.
https://www.politico.com/story/2015/05/white-house-arab-states-major-ally-status-military-financial-aid-summit
-gcc-117965.
119
OPEC : Saudi Arabia. “OPEC : Saudi Arabia,” n.d. https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/about_us/169.htm.1
120
NATO, NATO Secretary General to visit the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia,
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_221180.htm
121
CAAT - UK arms to Saudi Arabia. “CAAT - UK Arms to Saudi Arabia,” July 13, 2023.
https://caat.org.uk/homepage/stop-arming-saudi-arabia/uk-arms-to-saudi-arabia/.
122
AJC. “Hezbollah Is the Long Arm of Iran - Factsheet 5,” September 20, 2019.
https://www.ajc.org/news/hezbollah-is-the-long-arm-of-iran-factsheet-5.
123
TIME. “The History of Israel’s Powerful Military,” January 1, 2030.
https://time.com/3026685/israel-defense-forces-idf-history/.
124
ADL, Zionism, https://www.adl.org/resources/backgrounder/zionism
38
7.3. Non-NATO Stakeholders and Their Influence
Russia and China, though not NATO members, have significant interests in the
Middle East. Russia's military involvement in Syria and China's economic ventures,
such as the Belt and Road Initiative, impact the regional dynamics.
In the case of Russia, since all of the land that Russia owns is up north and there is no
easy way to access the main maritime routes directly within the countries borders.
Therefore, alternative harbors in the Middle East which can be operated by Russian
Officials are highly crucial in a world that has been coming closer to a world war
every second, quietly. At this moment Russia has one harbor in the middle east which
is located in Syria, named as Tartus Naval Facility125.
The Tartus base, operational since 2017 and still active, is located in proximity to
three Russian air bases in Syria. Significantly, it serves as the Russian Navy's primary
harbor outside the Black Sea, uniquely positioned to bypass navigation challenges
associated with the Turkish Straits, Dardanelles and Bosphorus, which have
125
The Washington Institute. “Latakia Is Assad’s Achilles Heel,” September 23, 2015.
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/latakia-assads-achilles-heel.
126
Sutton, H I. “Russian Navy Seen Escorting Iranian Tankers Bound for Syria - USNI News.” USNI News,
October 21, 2020.
https://news.usni.org/2020/10/21/russian-navy-seen-escorting-iranian-tankers-bound-for-syria.
39
regulations about the specifications of the ships passing through the straits with
respect to Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits127.
China has been quiet and passive but no one can say that they have been inactive in
the region, the Belt and Road Initiative is a big example of this. The project has been
talked about and proposed by Chinese officials in 2013. Their ultimate goal is to
reenact the Historical Silk Road which is a trade route from early centuries, it had a
reach of the whole “known” world at the time therefore it has quite the importance for
China and other countries which are on the route. The project promises economic
uptrend, and a perspective of a new trade system which has China on one side and
western world on the other side.
127
Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Implementation of the Montreux Convention,
https://www.mfa.gov.tr/implementation-of-the-montreux-convention.en.mfa
40
Figure 21128, map showing events ( which are 58 Battles, 213 Explosions/Remote
Violence,15 Violence Against Civilians, 17 Mob Violence, 75 Protests And 2 Violent
Demonstrations. The symbols define the type of battle or attack.) took place on
November 2023, in Middle East.
128
Mehvar, Ameneh, Emile Roy, Khaled Daoud, Matti Suomenaro, and Salma Eissa. “Regional Overview:
Middle East | November 2023.” ACLED, December 12, 2023.
https://acleddata.com/2023/12/07/regional-overview-middle-east-november-2023/.
41
Figure 22129, map showing energy sources and transfer lines in Middle East.
129
The Library of Congress. “Middle East Oil and Gas.,” n.d.
https://www.loc.gov/resource/g7421h.ct002142/?clip=225,1328,10795,8716&ciw=1024&rot=0.
42
9. NATO Policies and Strategies
9.1. NATO's Crisis Response Mechanisms
NATO has developed a multifaceted approach to crisis response, encompassing both political
and military tools. These mechanisms are designed to enable the Alliance to act swiftly and
decisively in the face of emerging crises, aiming to prevent conflict escalation and protect
member states' interests.
130
Government of Canada, Rapid Response Mechanism Canada: Global Affairs Canada,
https://www.international.gc.ca/transparency-transparence/rapid-response-mechanism-mecanisme-reponse-rapid
e/index.aspx?lang=eng
43
9.2. Rapid Reaction Forces
Rapid Reaction Forces (RRFs) are a core component of NATO's crisis response capability.
These highly mobile and versatile forces are capable of deploying to a crisis zone within a
short timeframe, often within days or even hours.131
● The NATO Response Force (NRF), a highly capable and versatile force with air, land,
maritime, and special operations components.132
· The Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF), a spearhead force within the NRF
capable of deploying within 48 hours.133
● Additional RRFs tailored to specific regional needs, such as the Baltic Air Policing
mission and the NATO Standing Maritime Groups.134
Intelligence sharing and analysis are crucial components of NATO’s security framework.
NATO has a robust intelligence architecture that facilitates the sharing of information among
member states. This includes the NATO Intelligence Fusion Centre (NIFC), which is a
military-led, multinational intelligence center working directly to support NATO operations,
as well as the individual intelligence agencies of member countries.
During the Kardak crisis, intelligence sharing, and analysis were critical for understanding
the unfolding situation and informing decision-making processes. The crisis underscored the
131
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Rapid response tools and mechanisms
,https://www.oecd.org/dac/conflict-fragility-resilience/rapidresponsetoolsandmechanisms.htm
132
Rapid Response, OECD
133
NATO, NATO Response Force VJTF, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_49755.htm
134
VJTF, NATO
44
importance of timely and accurate intelligence in managing international disputes and
preventing escalation.
Joint military exercises are a key part of NATO’s collective defense strategy. These
exercises are designed to enhance interoperability among NATO forces, improve their
readiness, and deter potential adversaries. They involve a wide range of activities, from
computer-assisted exercises and command post exercises to field exercises with live troops.
In the context of the Kardak crisis, joint military exercises played a significant role. They
served as a demonstration of NATO’s collective defense capabilities and acted as a deterrent
to further escalation. The crisis highlighted the importance of joint military exercises in
maintaining peace and stability in the region.
45
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