A NOTE ON INTEREST RATE FUTURE
A NOTE ON INTEREST RATE FUTURE
A NOTE ON INTEREST RATE FUTURE
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ABSTRACT:
The note covers in detail the applications of interest rate futures including T-Bill futures,
Eurodollar futures and T-bond futures. It explains how an investor can use these instruments to
obtain either a predictable cost of funds or a predictable return on assets. The note also explains
how an investor can use T-Bill futures for arbitraging. In addition, the note gives a detailed
explanation of the pricing of T-bond futures and explains how one can determine cheapest to
deliver bond. The objective of this note is to help the reader understand the concept and
applications of interest rate futures better.
INTRODUCTION
An interest rate futures contract is “an agreement to buy or sell a package of debt instruments at a
specified future date at a price that is fixed today.”1 The underlying assets of an interest rate
futures contract are different interest bearing instruments like T-Notes, T-Bills, T-Bonds, deposits
and so on.
Interest rate futures contracts were first traded on October 20, 1975, in the Chicago Board of
Trade. Such contracts can have short-term (less than one year) and long-term (more than one year)
interest bearing instruments as the underlying asset. In the US, short-term interest rate futures like
90-day T-Bill and 3 month Eurodollar time deposits are more popular (See Exhibit I for actively
traded short-term interest rate futures). Long-term interest rate futures include the 10-year treasury
note futures contract, the treasury bond futures contract and more (See Exhibit II for actively
traded long-term interest rate futures).
To study and understand interest rate futures contracts, one must be familiar with a number of
terms. Let us review some of the more commonly used terms. Treasury bill futures are futures
contracts on 90-day treasury bills. Eurodollar refers to any dollar-denominated account outside
the US. The Eurodollar futures contract is a contract on the 3-month LIBOR (London Inter-Bank
Offer Rate). LIBOR is the rate of interest at which banks borrow funds from other banks in the
London interbank market. The risk less return realized from buying the underlying asset and
simultaneously selling a futures contract against the asset is known as the implied repo rate.
Accrued interest refers to the interest that has been earned since the last interest payment date. In
a treasury bond or treasury note futures contract, the underlying financial instrument that is most
beneficial to the seller to deliver is called cheapest to deliver bond. Add-on-yield is equal to the
ratio of the discount to the price, multiplied by the ratio of 360 to the number of days to maturity.
1
As posted on www.hmconsulting.net.
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A Note on Interest Rate Futures
In futures hedging, an investor enters into a transaction in the futures market today, which he will
transact in the cash market in future (Refer Table I). Assume an investor expects a cash inflow
after six months and wishes to invest the same in long-term bonds when the cash becomes
available. He is worried that interest rates may fall and hence would like to hedge the interest rate
risk. He can hedge by buying bonds in the futures market today.
Interest rate futures can be used to protect against an increase in interest rates as well as a decline
in interest rates. By selling interest rate futures, also known as short hedging, an investor can
protect himself against an increase in interest rates; and by buying interest rate futures, also known
as long hedging, an investor can protect himself against a decline in interest rates.
Table I
Transactions Involving Hedging
EXPECTED TRANSACTION IN CASH IN FUTURES MARKET (NOW)
MARKET
Borrow short-terms funds Sell/Short LIBOR Futures
Lend short-terms funds Buy/Long LIBOR Futures
Source: http://www.jaring.my/mme/htm/ba.htm#Hedgin
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A Note on Interest Rate Futures
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A Note on Interest Rate Futures
2
Repo is short for repurchase agreement. In this type of contract, one party sells a security and also
promises to buy it back at a predetermined price on some future date.
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A Note on Interest Rate Futures
Example:
Assume a mutual fund owns T-Bills that have a face value3 of $5 million and a current market
value of $49,43,727. Faced by the demand for money by the fund participants, the fund enters into
a repurchase agreement with a financial institution. The institution provides the advance equal to
the current market value with a promise from the fund to repurchase the bills at $49,45,460 after
four days. The repo rate works out to be
$ 49,45,460 - 49,43,727 X 365 = 3.20%
$ 49,43,727 4
There is an opportunity for arbitrage if the T-Bill itself yields more than the institution’s repo rate
(3.20%). The fund can make arbitrage benefit by borrowing from the institution at this rate and
investing more in T-Bills.
Example:
Assume the following quotes are available in a T-Bill futures market:
3
The stated principal amount of an instrument.
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A Note on Interest Rate Futures
Opportunities for arbitrage exist when the futures price deviates from the theoretical price.
Suppose instead of selling for 94.80, T-Bill futures sell for 95.02, the appropriate strategy would
be to borrow for 120 days, buy 210 day T-Bills and sell futures due in 120-days. An arbitrageur
can borrow at a 120-day repo rate of 4.85%. The IMM index of 95.02 translates into a price of
$9,87,875.
Discount yield = 100 – 95.02 = 4.98%
Futures price = 10,00,000 (1 – Discount yield X 90/360)
= $9,87,875
The following transactions would yield an arbitrage profit,
TODAY
Buy 210-day T-Bill ($9,71,708)
Borrow $9,71,708 @ 4.85% for 120 days ($9,71,708)
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A Note on Interest Rate Futures
Example:
Assume the settlement price of a June 03, 2003, ED is $93.00, while that of a June TB is $94.45.
Therefore, the respective yields on these will be 7% (100-93) for ED and 5.55% (100-94.45) for
TB. The current difference between the yields is 145 basis points.4 A trader expects this spread to
widen and thus buys a fifteen-contract TED spread. After two weeks the spread has widened.
Hence, the profit made by the trader on closing out would be, if the prices become 94.50 for the
TB and 92.87 for the ED, the new spread therefore will be 163 basis points (Refer Table II).
Table II
Transactions Involving Buying the Ted Spread
Day 1 Buy 15 TB @ 94.45 Sell 15 ED @ 93.00
Day 15 Sell 15 TB @ 94.50 Buy 15 ED @ 92.87
Gain 0.05 Gain 0.13
5
= 15 X $25/tick X 5 tick = 15 X $25/tick X 13 tick
= $1875 gain = $4875 gain
Net Gain = $6750
4
A basis point is used to express the fractional interest rate, where 100 basis point is equal to 1%.
5
Tick is the minimum allowable price change in a futures position.
6
The conversion factor is the factor used to adjust the invoice price so that a higher amount is paid for the
delivery of a bond with a higher coupon.
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A Note on Interest Rate Futures
40
4.25 100
t
128.89
t 1 1.03 1.03 40
The conversion factor is the value divided by its face value = 128.89/100 = 1.2889
Example:
Consider a 9% coupon bond with 15 years and four months to maturity. In this case, the period of
the bond to maturity is assumed to be 15 years and three months. Discounting all the cash flows
back to a point in time three months from today gives:
30
4.50 100
4.5 1.03
t 1
t
1.0330
133.9
The next logical step is to calculate the interest rate for a 3-month period is (1.03 – 1) X 100 =
1.4889% and discount back the value of 133.39 to the present date i.e. 133.9/1.014889 = 131.94.
Accrued interest = 2.25. Therefore, the conversion factor is (131.94 - 2.25)/100 = 1.2969. The
conversion factor computed is used to determine the amount received by the party with the short
position, when he/she delivers the bond. It is computed for each $100 face value of the bond
deliverable, using the following formula:
Cash Received = Quoted Futures Price X Conversion Factor + Accrued Interest since Last Coupon
Date
PRICING OF T-BOND FUTURES CONTRACTS
For T-bond futures, it is up to the seller to decide which bond to deliver. Therefore he/she
identifies the cheapest to deliver bond (Refer Exhibit VI). This is done by computing the cost of
delivery for each deliverable bond as follows:
Cost = (Quoted Price + Accrued Interest) – (Quoted Futures Price X Conversion Factor + Accrued
Interest).
Quotes for Treasury Bonds
The prices of Treasury bonds are quoted in terms of dollars and 32nds of a dollar. Therefore, a
quote of 94-22 means that the price of a bond with a face value is $100,000 is $94,687.5 (since the
quote is in terms of a bond with a face value of $100). However, the price paid by the purchaser is
not the quoted price7 but the cash price8. The relationship between the two is:
Cash Price = Quoted Price + Accrued Interest since last Coupon Date.
Example:
Assume that on April 8, 2003, a fund manager is holding US Treasury bonds maturing on July 8,
2020, carrying a coupon rate of 12%. The bond is quoting at 93-08 (or $93.25). The interest is paid
semi-annually on January 8 and July 8 every year. As per the day count convention, the interest on
the government bond accrues on an actual basis. The last coupon payment date in this case was
January 8, 2003.
Therefore, the accrued interest between January 8 and April 8, 2003 is,
= (90/181) X $6 = $2.98
Where the number of days between Jan 8 and April 8 is 90
Number of days between Jan 8 and July 8 is 181
7
Quoted price is sometimes referred to as the clean price.
8
Cash price is sometimes referred to as the dirty price.
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A Note on Interest Rate Futures
Step 1: Calculate the cash price of the cheapest-to-deliver bond from the quoted price.
Step 2: Calculate the cash futures price from the cash bond price using the above equation.
Step 3: Calculate the quoted futures price from the cash futures price.
Step 4: Divide the quoted futures price by the conversion factor.
Source: Hull C. John, “Options, Futures and Other Derivatives”
Example:
Assume that in a T-bond futures contract, the cheapest to deliver bond is a 14% coupon bond with
a conversion factor of 1.37. Delivery will take place after 280 days. The term structure is flat and
the rate of interest is 10% per annum. Assume that the current quoted bond price is $120 with
semi-annual coupons. The last coupon date was 45 days ago, the next coupon date will be 137
days from the present date, and the next to next coupon date will be in 320 days from the present.
The diagrammatic representation would be:
Coupon
Coupon Current Maturity of Coupon
Payment
Payment Date Future Contract Payment
Given the current quoted bond price of $120, the cash price would be the quoted price plus the
accrued interest,
= 120 + [45/(45+137) X 7] = $121.73
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A Note on Interest Rate Futures
The present value of the coupon payment of $7 to be received after 137 days (0.3753 year) is,
= 7e-0.3753 X 0.1 = 6.742
The futures contract last for 280 days (= 0.7671 year). The cash futures price of a 14% bond would
therefore be:
(121.73 – 6.742)e 0.7671 X 0.1
= 124.155
At the point of delivery, the accrued interest would be for 143 days. This has to be deducted from
the cash futures price to calculate the quoted futures price,
124.155 – 7 X [143/(143+40)] = 118.685
The contract is written on a standard 6% bond, and 1.37 standard bonds are considered to be
equivalent to each 14% bond. Therefore, the quoted futures price would be,
118.685/1.37 = 86.63
CONCLUSION
Futures are among the oldest financial instruments. This concept note attempts to help readers
understand the applications of interest rate futures. Interest rate futures are used for hedging,
spreading and arbitraging purposes. Corporates can use these instruments to hedge fixed income
assets against the risk of interest rate volatility. By understanding how interest rate futures
contracts work and how prices are quoted, an investor can create a hedge against the exposure to
interest rates.
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A Note on Interest Rate Futures
Exhibit I
List of Actively Traded Short Term Interest Rate Futures
US Exchanges
a) 3-month Eurodollar (Chicago Mercantile Exchange)
b) 90-day T-Bill (CME)
c) 1-month LIBOR (CME)
Foreign Exchanges
a) 3-month Euroyen SIMEX, Singapore
b) 3-month Eurodollar LIFFE, UK
c) 3-month KLIBOR (Kuala Lumpur Interbank Offered Rate), MME
d) 3-month HIBOR Hong Kong Future Exchange
Source: Financial Risk Management, IBS Center for Management Research Textbook.
Exhibit II
List of Actively Traded Long Term Interest Rate Futures
US Exchanges
a) T-Bonds (15 years) Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT)
b) T-Notes (10 years) CBOT
c) T-Notes (5 years) CBOT
Foreign Exchanges
a) Japanese Government Bonds (10 years)
b) UK Government Bonds
c) Australian T-Bonds
Source: Financial Risk Management, IBS Center for Management Research Textbook.
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A Note on Interest Rate Futures
Exhibit III
T-Bill Futures and Eurodollar Futures
The 90 day T-Bill was the first short term interest rate futures contract traded on the
International Monetary Market (IMM) in 1976. A Treasury bill does not pay any coupon and the
investor receives the face value at maturity. U.S. T-Bills sell at a discount form their par value or
face value, The underlying asset of a Treasury Bill futures contract is a 90-day Treasury bill. A
T-Bill futures contract is for a delivery of $1 million face value of T-Bills with 13 weeks to
maturity at the time of futures expiration. In general, the T-Bills to be delivered can have
maturities of 90, 91 or 92 days. The prices of T-Bills and T-Bills futures prices are
conventionally quoted in terms of bank discount yield.
The Eurodollar futures contract at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange is perhaps the most actively
traded futures contract. The Eurodollar futures contract is a contract on the 3-month LIBOR
(London Inter-Bank Offered Rates). This contract is settled in cash. Following are the basic
contract characteristics of two short term futures:
T-Bill prices are typically quoted on a discount basis, and the year is considered to be of 360
days and each month of 30 days. The discount yield on T-Bills is calculated as follows:
Adapted from Strong A. Robert, Derivatives An Introduction, Hull C. John, Options, Futures and Other Derivatives,
Financial Risk Management, IBS Center for Management Research Textbook, www.cba.uiuc.edu.
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A Note on Interest Rate Futures
Substituting,
.0333 = (Discount/$ 10,00,000 – Discount) X 360/91
Discount = $ 8347.24
If a T-Bill of $ 1 million is sold at a discount of $ 8347.24, the discount yield would be:
= ($8347.24/$ 10,00,000) X 360/91 = 3.30%
Therefore, it can be inferred that for a give discount, the discount yield will be less than the add-
on yield.
Adapted from Strong A. Robert, Derivatives An Introduction, Hull C. John, Options, Futures and Other Derivatives,
Financial Risk Management, IBS Center for Management Research Textbook, www.cba.uiuc.edu.
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A Note on Interest Rate Futures
Exhibit IV
No Arbitrage Futures Price
At any time, if the cash requirement at point 0 is nil and at point 1, if an investor ends up with
cash in hand, then there is some problem in the financial system. Either the repo rate is too low
or
the futures price is too high. If the investor can borrow at a lower rate than the implied financing
rate from the T-Bill futures market, the investor should borrow for 120 days, buy 210 day T-
Bills and sell futures due in 120 days. But, if the borrowing rate is more than the implied
financing rate, than the investor should be to borrow for 210 days, buy 120 day T-Bills, and buy
futures due in 120 days.
Given the repo rate of 4.85%, the price at which there will be no arbitrage is $94.97.
Total cost of borrowing = $9,71,708 + $15,709.28 = $987417.28
Discount yield on futures = 100 – 94.97 = 5.03%
Price = $10,00,000 (1 – discount yield X 90/360)
= $9,87,425
Source: Strong A. Robert, Derivatives an Introduction.
Exhibit V
Characteristics of T-Note and T-Bonds
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A Note on Interest Rate Futures
Exhibit VI
Cheapest to Deliver Bond
The seller may choose the bond to deliver from the bonds eligible for delivery. The factors which
affect the bond yield include the bond price, the coupon, and the time until maturity. Therefore,
bonds with coupons of 6% may not yield exactly 6%, but may be more or less than that. Five
percent bonds yielding 6% necessarily sell for less than par, while 7% bonds yielding 6% sell for
more than par. The conversion factor makes all bonds equally attractive for delivery only when
the bonds under consideration yield 6%. If they yield more or less than 6%, one bond will have
the lowest adjusted price, and hence be cheapest to deliver.
Since the party with the short position receives (quoted futures price X Conversion factor) +
accrued interest
And his/her cost of purchasing the bond is quoted price + accrued interest
Therefore, the cheapest to deliver bond is the one for which Quoted price – (quoted futures price
X Conversion factor) is the minimum
Example:
Bond Quoted Price Conversion Factor
1 98.50 1.2082
2 134.50 1.5588
3 128.75 1.3615
Given a quoted futures price of 93.25, the cost of delivering each of the bonds is:
Bond 1: 98.50 - (93.25×1.0182) = 3.55
Bond 2: 134.50 - (93.25×1.4088) = 3.12
Bond 3: 128.75 - (93.25×1.3485) = 3.00
The cheapest to deliver bond is bond 3.
Adapted from Strong A. Robert, Derivatives An Introduction, Hull C. John, Options, Futures and Other Derivatives,
Financial Risk Management, IBS Center for Management Research Textbook, www.cba.uiuc.edu.
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A Note on Interest Rate Futures
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