Wheat imports by Egypt

Supply&Demand, main importers and

Share of Ukrainian origin
 2

Egypt wheat supply and demand (mln t)

Production Imports Domestic Consumption
25,0

20,0

15,0 12,4 12,4 12,8 12,1 11,5

11,9 11,2

10,0 19,2 19,4 19,8 20,1 20,3 20,6 20,5

5,0 8,5 8,5 8,8 8,9 9,0

8,1 8,1

0,0
Supply Demand Supply Demand Supply Demand Supply Demand Supply Demand Supply Demand Supply Demand
2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22

Egypt's 100 million population needs 20 million tons of wheat annually. At the same time, population growth of 2% means a constant increase in these
needs. Egypt has its own large production of wheat (TOP-15), but this is enough to cover only 40-45% of needs. The rest must be imported. Egypt,
together with Indonesia, is the largest importer of wheat in the world. Thanks to large-scale irrigation, yields in Egypt are quite predictable, and the size
of the crop varies mainly due to changes in the amount of planted area. This contributes to clearer planning of purchases by the state, which will be
discussed later. Key exporters of wheat in the world are located near Egypt - EU countries, Ukraine and Russia. Because of this, almost all purchases are
made from these countries. In addition to the short logistical arm, ships from Europe also do not need to cross the Suez Canal (and pay additional fees).
Sources: USDA
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Egypt wheat imports by origin (kt)

Russia Ukraine Romania France Others

461 461 331

936 3% 2160 4% 797
7% 22%
936 8%
1253 8135
10% 67%
1253 602, 5%
6374 316, 3%
50% 6374 630, 5%
3514
3802 2913 36%
30% 30%
3802 2459
20%
Season Season Season
2019-20 2020-21 2021-22
The share of Ukrainian wheat in Egypt's imports varies from year to year and depends on many factors. The key factor is the size of the harvest in Ukraine
and among competitors, as well as among importers, which determines not only the ratio of the available supply, but also the expectations of market
participants about the likely price dynamics in the future. But there are really many factors. For example, at the end of 2020, Egypt continued to actively
purchase wheat from the world, while the share of Ukraine fell sharply. The reason was less fundamental and more psychologic. Thanks to the period of
high prices, Ukrainian farmers have made enough sales and did not need additional cash. Therefore, with the approach of the New Year and Christmas
holidays, volume of trade dropped by 50% vs. Oct-Nov and fully restored in February.
Sources: Global Trade Tracker
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Egyptian buyers of Ukraine wheat (kt) Biggest private wheat importers in Egypt
GASC Private traders
ABCD-Traders Top local importers Others
100%
90% Mediterraneo
ADM Mnasek
Trading
80%
1778 70% Bunge Egypt Horus MIDSTAR Egypt
2797 1689
60%
50% Cargill Abo Donkol Prime Grains

40%
CHS Eagles Midstar Fze
30%
1135 20% Cofco Agri Egypt
770 El Nour Trading Hemdanco Group
1005 Trading Limited
10%
Louis Dreyfus Medsofts
0% Middle East Grains
Alexandria Commodity Trading
2019/20 2020/21 2021/22
As for imports from Ukraine, Egypt buys up to 40% of wheat through state tenders. The rest is the subject of negotiations between exporters and
importers. The specificity of the agricultural market is the wide spread of transnational companies that often trade grain between their branches. For
example, COFCO Ukraine, which exports grain around the world, including selling to COFCO Egypt, which accordingly imports grain into the country.
This further complicates the collection of already opaque statistics. But in general, ABCD companies import from Ukraine to Egypt about 0.8-1.5 million
tons per year. As for Egyptian private importers, among the listed companies, the most active are Manasek, Horus and Medsoft. They account for the
rest of the market share. Other large Egyptian importers purchase sporadically in Ukraine.
Sources: Global Trade Tracker, StoneX, Customs Statistics of Ukraine, trading companies' websites
 5

GASC (General Authority For Supply Commodities) wheat imports (kt)

Russia Ukraine Romania France Others

461 1920
40%
1130 936
18% 3805
70%
1253
3290 300, 6%
900 52% 600, 11% 6374 50, 1%
14%
240, 4% 1370
60,3802
1% 1135 29%
1005 770 24%
16% Season 14% Season Season
2019-20 2020-21 2021-22
Thanks to the stable yield, the Egyptian government has an advanced understanding of the state's needs for wheat imports. However, food security still
depends on timely supplies of wheat from abroad. Therefore, the government is actively involved in the process of wheat purchases, which are
conducted in the form of international tenders. Through GASC (General Authority For Supply Commodities), the government bought from 25% to 40% of
the total volume of imports. The tender procedure is characterized by a high level of bureaucracy and, at the same time, the opacity of negotiations.
However, the results of procurement through GASC are an important benchmark not only for Egypt, but also for other participants in the world market.

Sources: StoneX
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Wheat imports by private Egyptian companies (kt)

Russia Ukraine Romania France Others
461, 7%
461 31; 1%
36, 1% 747
1689 76; 1%
542 15% 240; 5%
123, 2% 25%
936
8% 30; 1%
2797
43% 1253
1778
36%
6374

3084 2144
47% 3802
43%
4330
Season 65%
Season Season
2019-20 2020-21 2021-22
The size of the harvest in each country strongly affects the distribution of shares in the destinations, including Egypt. As an example, in the 2020-21
season, Russia harvested 85 million tons of wheat, 12 million tons more than the previous year. Instead, Ukraine had a crop failure and harvested 25
million tons, 4.5 million tons less than the previous year. The distribution in the market of Egypt illustrates this - a large harvest puts pressure on domestic
prices in exporting countries, as a result of which trading companies can offer lower prices to destination markets.

Sources: Global Trade Tracker