What caused the prolonged rain in Singapore

ST Explains: What caused the prolonged rain in Singapore?
SINGAPORE – Cool weather rare for humid Singapore, flash

floods, delayed flights and slow business.
All of these happened over three days starting from Jan 10,
as a result of a monsoon surge that has been dumping rain
on the island, with occasional strong wind gusts.
The mercury fell to 21.6 deg C in the Newton Road area on

the morning of Jan 11, almost matching 2024’s lowest
temperature of 21.4 deg C.
A stretch of Jalan Seaview in Mountbatten was affected by

flash floods on the evening of Jan 10.
Singapore is currently in the wet phase of the north-east

monsoon, which typically lasts from December to January.
A monsoon surge that brings prolonged rain is a common

phenomenon during this season.
A car passing through a flooded section of Jalan Seaview on
Jan 10, 2025. ST PHOTO: KEVIN LIM
The Straits Times explains the factors behind the prolonged

deluge.
What is a monsoon surge?
During the north-east monsoon, winds typically blow from

the north-east to the south-west.
A monsoon surge refers to bursts of cold air from Central

Asia.
When regions up north, such as Siberia, experience

extremely cold weather in the winter months, the cold air
occasionally sweeps southwards to the South China Sea,
and is blown towards the tropics.
The air then warms and picks up moisture, leading to the

formation of dense rain clouds. This brings increased
rainfall near the Equator.
There could be moderate to heavy showers and

thunderstorms in places such as Singapore, Malaysia and
Vietnam. The rainfall can be prolonged – like it has been in
Singapore since Jan 10 – lasting from two to several days.
The deluge on Jan 10 and 11 exceeded the amount of rain

Singapore typically receives in the entire month of January.
Changi recorded the highest total amount of rainfall at

255.2mm over those two days, exceeding Singapore’s
monthly average rainfall of 222.4mm in January.
On average, Singapore experiences two to four monsoon

surges each year, according to the Meteorological Service
Singapore (MSS) website. Each event can last between one
and five days.
This current monsoon surge is expected to last till Jan 13,

national water agency PUB said.
Shoppers braving the rain at the Chinese New Year bazaar
in Chinatown on Jan 12, 2025. ST PHOTO: BRIAN TEO
Monsoon surges occur more often during the wet phase of

the north-east monsoon and are more intense between
November and January.
During such periods of prolonged rain, temperatures will
dip.
In Malaysia, a monsoon surge is expected to bring heavy

continuous rainfall to many states – including Sabah and
Sarawak – for three consecutive days from Jan 15, the
country’s meteorological department said.
This comes as torrential rain has already caused floods in

several states, including Johor, where Kota Tinggi, Kluang
and Pontian are affected.
In Johor, close to 4,000 people were seeking refuge in flood

relief centres, The Star reported on Jan 13.
What are other drivers of rainfall in Singapore?
Besides the north-east monsoon, other large-scale and

localised weather circulation patterns also influence rainfall
here. A major one is the La Nina climate phenomenon,
which brings wetter and cooler conditions to the region.
La Nina is forecast to return some time between now and

March. On the MSS site, the Republic is currently on “La
Nina watch”.
“If a La Nina event occurs, the typically drier months of

February and March may experience increased and
possibly extended rainfall events,” noted Professor
Matthias Roth, who specialises in urban climatology at NUS.
According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric

Administration, there is a 59 per cent chance for La Nina
conditions to persist from February to April. Prof Roth
added that the phenomenon is currently predicted to be
short-lived, lasting until some time between March to May.
The last La Nina episode was a particularly prolonged one,

lasting three years between 2020 and early 2023.
It partly led to higher-than-average total rainfall in

Singapore in 2022, with the deluge in October that year
being the highest for that month in the past four decades.
In Singapore, the phenomenon also tends to moderate the

annual mean temperatures.
Other drivers of rainfall are localised weather circulation

patterns that affect a smaller area, such as the Sumatra
squalls that bring rainfall over Peninsular Malaysia and
Singapore.
The Sumatra squall is a line of thunderstorms that develops

over Sumatra or the Strait of Malacca, often overnight. It
moves to the east, at times producing heavy rain and gusty
winds, as it crosses Peninsular Malaysia and Singapore.
The SMRT Flood Response Team checking the stackable
flood barriers with a torchlight at one-north MRT station
during a demonstration on Dec 12, 2024. ST PHOTO:
SHINTARO TAY
Why is forecasting weather in the tropics tricky?
Predicting the weather in the tropics, including Singapore,

is particularly challenging. This is because weather
processes that lead to thunderstorms, for
example, typically develop and dissipate quickly, often
within one or two hours.
This short lifespan, along with other reasons, makes

forecast models that simulate atmospheric conditions less
accurate in the tropics.
These models hence do not perform as well as they do in

the mid-latitude, temperate regions.
Prevailing winds in the tropics also make it difficult to track

and predict the movement of storms that are limited to a
certain geographical area.
However, PUB gave some early warning on Jan 9 that

potential flash floods could result from the prolonged
weekend rain, so that commuters could plan their routes
and avoid flood-prone areas.
What should people do during floods?
To avoid being caught off guard by sudden, intense rain

and flooding, commuters can subscribe to PUB Flood Alerts
on Telegram or download the myENV app to receive
weather forecasts.
It would be best to avoid flooded areas.
For vehicles stranded in flood waters, avoid braking to keep

the engine speed higher and constant.
Pedestrians should move to higher ground as flood waters
may rise suddenly. Houses and businesses in flood-prone
locations should install flood barriers – provided by the
authorities – when there is a risk of flood occurring.
Residents and business owners should move essential

items to higher ground and avoid touching electrical
switches or appliances if they are standing in water.
Each flash flood episode tends to last less than an hour in

Singapore.
How will climate change affect rainfall intensity

and floods?
The Jalan Seaview flood on Jan 10 may offer a glimpse of

what flooding could look like in Singapore amid sea-level
rise – expected decades down the road.
That evening, heavy rain coincided with a high tide of 2.8m

that temporarily overwhelmed an adjacent canal and
surrounding roadside drains.
According to Singapore’s third national climate change

study, climate change is expected to bring heavier, more
intense and frequent storms. This could lead to more flash
flooding.
In the low-carbon emission scenario, the rainy season

between November and January is expected to get wetter
by up to 58 per cent, said the study, which was released in
2023.
By the end of the century, the daily extreme rainfall during
April and May – months which generally do not have much
downpour – could almost double.
 Shabana Begum is a correspondent with a focus on

environment and science at The Straits Times.
MORE ON THIS TOPIC

Flight disruptions, lift closures – S’pore contends with non-
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18 flights bound for Changi, Seletar airports diverted since
Jan 10 due to bad weather

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ST Explains: What caused the prolonged rain in Singapore?

SINGAPORE – Cool weather rare for humid Singapore, flash

The mercury fell to 21.6 deg C in the Newton Road area on

A stretch of Jalan Seaview in Mountbatten was affected by

Singapore is currently in the wet phase of the north-east

A monsoon surge that brings prolonged rain is a common

The Straits Times explains the factors behind the prolonged

During the north-east monsoon, winds typically blow from

A monsoon surge refers to bursts of cold air from Central

When regions up north, such as Siberia, experience

The air then warms and picks up moisture, leading to the

There could be moderate to heavy showers and

The deluge on Jan 10 and 11 exceeded the amount of rain

Changi recorded the highest total amount of rainfall at

On average, Singapore experiences two to four monsoon

This current monsoon surge is expected to last till Jan 13,

Monsoon surges occur more often during the wet phase of

In Malaysia, a monsoon surge is expected to bring heavy

This comes as torrential rain has already caused floods in

In Johor, close to 4,000 people were seeking refuge in flood

What are other drivers of rainfall in Singapore?

Besides the north-east monsoon, other large-scale and

La Nina is forecast to return some time between now and

“If a La Nina event occurs, the typically drier months of

According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric

The last La Nina episode was a particularly prolonged one,

It partly led to higher-than-average total rainfall in

In Singapore, the phenomenon also tends to moderate the

Other drivers of rainfall are localised weather circulation

The Sumatra squall is a line of thunderstorms that develops

Predicting the weather in the tropics, including Singapore,

This short lifespan, along with other reasons, makes

These models hence do not perform as well as they do in

Prevailing winds in the tropics also make it difficult to track

However, PUB gave some early warning on Jan 9 that

What should people do during floods?

To avoid being caught off guard by sudden, intense rain

It would be best to avoid flooded areas.

For vehicles stranded in flood waters, avoid braking to keep

Residents and business owners should move essential

Each flash flood episode tends to last less than an hour in

How will climate change affect rainfall intensity

The Jalan Seaview flood on Jan 10 may offer a glimpse of

That evening, heavy rain coincided with a high tide of 2.8m

According to Singapore’s third national climate change

In the low-carbon emission scenario, the rainy season

 Shabana Begum is a correspondent with a focus on

MORE ON THIS TOPIC

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