A_Potential_Research_Area_Under_Shadow_I
A_Potential_Research_Area_Under_Shadow_I
A_Potential_Research_Area_Under_Shadow_I
Abstract
As a branch of the global machinery industry, the agricultural (farm) machinery design and manufacturing or
agricultural engineering industry has become one of the most important industries to be supported and focussed on in the
era of hunger threats foreseen in the World’s future. In order to produce sufficient volumes of food from current limited
agricultural land, well-designed machinery and high technology-supported mechanisation of the agricultural production
processes is a vital necessity. However, although novel improvements are observed in this area, they are very limited.
There is a lack of implementation of advanced engineering design and manufacturing technologies in this industry,
therefore agricultural engineering could be considered a potential engineering research area with this in mind. This study
aims to highlight the potential, gaps, sector specific challenges and limitations of the agricultural engineering research
area at a macro level. Under consideration of the sector-specific indicators, the study revealed a major result: there is an
insufficient level of sector-specific research on implementation strategies for up-to-date design and manufacturing
technologies.
Keywords: Agricultural Mechanisation, Agricultural Engineering, Farm Equipment Market, Food Production,
Technological Trends, Advanced Design and Manufacturing.
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INTRODUCTION
One of the most prevalent issues facing us in modern times is the rapidly increasing World population which is
expected to reach 8.5 billion by 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050 and by 2100 the world’s population is predicted as 11.2 billion,
approximately 33 percent higher than the current 2019 population of more than 7.5 Billion (UN, 2017). As such, a key
question is posed: How to feed the global population in the era of hunger threats which is not difficult to foresee in the
world’s future growth? The answer is clear - producing sufficient food to meet the demands of population growth, which
leads us to focus on the agricultural sector.
Agriculture, also known as farming, can be defined as the production of food, fibre, animal feed, and other goods by
means of growing and harvesting plants and animals. The English word ‘agriculture’ derives from the Latin ager (field)
and colo (cultivate) signifying, when combined, the Latin agricultura: field or land tillage. The word ‘agriculture’ is
defined in The Oxford English Dictionary (1971) as “The science and art of cultivating the soil, including the allied
pursuits of gathering in the crops and rearing live stock; tillage, husbandry, farming (in the widest
sense)” (Harris and Fuller 2014). In any sense, agriculture is related to the core of food production and is a prerequisite
for civilisation and sustainable life for human beings since the first records of civilisation history.
The origins of agriculture are visible to us today only from archaeological digs and studies of foraging societies and
groups that survive into the Twentieth Century and the findings show to us that farming first developed in the
“fertilecrescent” of Mesopotamia, where the local flora and fauna included the wild progenitors of the main domesticated
food crops and animals (Tauger 2011). Although all crops were produced and prepared by human and animal power for
these first-known farming applications, archaeological findings also indicate the use of several tools in the agricultural
production phases such as primitive tillage and sharp cutting tools. This shows that humans have been working on the
mechanisation of agriculture since the first agricultural applications.
Mechanisation of the agricultural domain can be defined as the process of using different kinds of highly efficient
machineries compared to primitive or traditional equipment used in the agricultural production phases. In addition to new
patterns of crop rotation and livestock utilisation, the importance of such mechanisation was well understood during the
Green Revolution in the world. The term Green Revolution refers to the renovation of agricultural practices beginning in
Mexico in the 1940s. The beginnings of the Green Revolution are often attributed to Norman Borlaug, an American
scientist interested in agriculture and then Green Revolution technologies spread worldwide in the 1950s and 1960s.
Significant effects on increasing the amount of calories produced per decare of agricultural fields were also observed
(Sarkar 2016; Briney 2019).
With the Green Revolution, agriculture workers laboured six days a week, from sun up to sun down, just to keep their
crops growing, therefore working in agriculture was not just a job, but often a lifestyle for families (Pollard 1981).
Because of the difficulties associated with agricultural work, it became necessary to innovate the agricultural industry,
such that the agricultural revolution helped contribute to the industrial revolution through innovations and inventions that
altered how the farming process worked (FoWC 2019). After three revolutions were experienced in the industry in 1784,
1870 and 1969 respectively, these days we also refer to the fourth revolution: Industry 4.0 where it encompasses a range
of new technologies that combine the physical and digital worlds. There was no doubt since the first emergence of industry
4.0 that this would also effect the agricultural production and agricultural engineering industry: Agriculture 4.0.
The agricultural engineering industry or agricultural machinery design and manufacturing industry (AMD&MI) is the
part of the industry that design, produce and maintain agricultural tractors, agricultural machinery systems and agricultural
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tools/equipment used in the agricultural production phases. This branch is considered to be part of the global machinery
design and manufacturing industry.
During the aforementioned industrial revolutions, although innovative developments in the AMD&MI were
witnessed, they were very limited, not spread worldwide and it would be difficult to talk about a parallel technological
and engineering advancement with other industrial branches of material science, machinery design and manufacturing
industries. Most especially, it is seen the lack of implementation of advanced engineering design, manufacturing and
automation technologies in the AMD&MI sector (relative to the other machinery industries).
Most of the agricultural machinery manufacturers are classified as small and medium-sized enterprises in Turkey
(AEA 2017; Ileri 2018) as they are in many other countries. It would be true to say that this industry does not have a high
level of competitive power in the global marketplace. Again, one of the most important reasons is that the use of advanced
engineering design, manufacturing and automation technologies has not become a mainstream requirement for them in
producing high quality functional agricultural machinery systems. However, related statistics also indicate that the
AMD&MI has hidden potential for professional commercialism and being a profit centred sector. Hence, agricultural
engineering research areas could be considered as potential engineering research areas.
In this study, initial discussions were conducted in consideration of some of the key statistics related to agricultural
indicators and the agricultural machinery market globally and then focused specifically on Turkey’s current situation, as
this industry and research area in Turkey shows promise because of the agricultural production potential of the country.
AGRICULTURAL AREA
Agricultural area can be defined as the sum of areas considered as arable land and permanent crops and permanent
pastures. China is the top country by agricultural area in the world. As of 2016, the agricultural area in China was 518 552
thousand hectares, that accounts for 11 % of the world's agricultural area (approximately). The top five countries (others
are the United States of America, Australia, Brazil, and Russian Federation) account for 37.5 % of it. Total Agricultural
area in Turkey and in the United Kingdom is 38 327 and 17 345 thousand hectares respectively, in 2016. The world's total
agricultural area was estimated at 4.87 billion hectares in 2016 (FAOSTAT 2019; Knoema, 2019). Predictions state that
there is still scope for further expansion of agricultural land. However, there is also a perception, at least in some quarters,
that there is no more, or very little, land to bring under cultivation (FAO 2019). A threatening indicator here is that the
agricultural area in the world has been decreasing when considered against the increase in the world’s population. When
the last 20 years data is considered, it is seen that the total agricultural area was 4.91 billion hectares in 1996, 4.95 billion
hectares in 2000 and 4.87 billion hectares in 2016. The corresponding total global population was 5.83 billion in 1996,
6.14 billion in 2000 and 7.45 billion in 2016. This shows that the agricultural area per person was 0.81 hectares in 2000
and 0.65 hectares in 2016. This means that agricultural area experienced 20 % decrease against 18 % increase in world
population between the years 2000 and 2016 approximately. The graphical representations related to this situation are
given in Figure 1.
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Figure 1. Agricultural Area per person Vs. World population (1961 - 2016)
Related statistics shows that the world’s population was predominantly rural for decades (more than 60%), however,
the most recent data indicates that there is a change in this situation. Today, more than half of the population (54 %) is
urban and it is predicted that more than two-thirds of all people may be living in urban areas by 2050 (FAO 2017). Rapid
population growth changes the population structure as well. In this structure, it can be seen that most of the younger
generation are expected to live in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, particularly in rural areas, where jobs will likely
be difficult to find. Related reports from FAO highlight that without sufficient employment opportunities, this population
trend may lead to a more rapid rate of outmigration which may be considered as a potential problem for world’s future
(FAO 2017). Another point in urbanisation is its impact on food consumption patterns. Higher urban income tends to
increase demand for processed foods, as well as animal-source food, fruit and vegetables, as part of a broad dietary
transition. Graphical representation of the population growth, urban and rural population projections globally are given
in Figure 2.
Figure 2. Population growth, urban and rural population projections (FAO 2017).
The High-Level Expert Form in 2009 revealed the following projections: feeding a world population in 2050 would
require raising overall food production by some 70% until 2050. Additionally, the reports highlighted that agricultural
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production in the developing countries would need to almost double. The facts show that annual cereal production, for
instance, would have to grow by almost one billion tonnes, meat production by over 200 million tonnes to a total of
470 million tonnes by 2050, 72% of which would be in developing countries, up from the 58% today. The demand for
other food products that are more responsive to higher incomes in the developing countries (such as livestock, dairy
products and vegetable oils) will grow much faster than that for cereals. Feeding the world population adequately would
also mean producing the kinds of foods that are lacking to ensure nutrition security (FAO 2009). Another important
problem is the number of undernourished people in the world which has been on the rise since 2014, reaching 821 million
in 2017 and estimated to reach 900 million by 2023 (FAO 2018; Ileri 2019). A large proportion of the world population
is affected by micro-nutrient (vitamin and mineral) deficiencies. This is often called “hidden hunger” because there may
be no visible signs (FAO 2018). The FAO projections for food demand for the different commodities mention that the
per capita food consumption (kcal/person/day) will grow significantly. The world average would reach 3000 kcal by 2015
and exceeding 3000 kcal by 2030. These changes in the world averages will reflect all the rising consumption of the
developing countries, whose average will have risen from the 2680 kcal in 1997/99 to 2850 kcal in 2015 and close to
3000 kcal in 2030. In addition to projections for food production and consumption volumes, water issue is another
significant problem. The statistical projections also indicate that in 2025, 1.8 billion of the world population and in 2050,
half of the world population would experience limitations to reach water sources (Ileri 2019). Some selected data which
shows current and future projections for food production, food consumption and the number of undernourished people in
the world are given in Figure 3.
Figure 3. Current situation and future projections of food production, food consumption and the number of
undernourished people in the world (FAO 2009; FAO 2018a).
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AGRICULTURAL MECHANISATION LEVEL
Agricultural mechanisation involves the use of tools, implements and machines to improve the efficiency of human
time and labour. Mechanisation is a crucial input for agricultural production and one that has historically been neglected
within the context of developing countries for a long time (Negrete 2018). Most especially when considering the hunger
threats on the world’s future, one of the key achievements would be use of modern, well-engineered machinery systems
in order to produce higher-yield products per hectare from limited agricultural areas. The mechanisation level of the
countries in agricultural production can be explained through specific indicators such as total number of agricultural
tractors, average tractor power, tractor numbers/power per unit of agricultural area, number of agricultural machineries
(implements), mass of the agricultural implements per tractor, tractor operating hours per year, etc. Most especially,
agricultural tractors are the main technology and mobile power source for the farmers. According to the most recent data,
it would not be wrong to assume that in most countries, the situation regarding the number of agricultural tractors remains
largely the same as it was in 2000. The FAO statistics show that Europe was the leader in the number of operational
tractors between the years 1961 and 2000 (FAO, 2018b).
In Turkey, 37.8 million hectares of area is in use for agricultural production. 81% of the farms in Turkey have less
than 100 decares, classified within the group of small enterprises. Cereals and fruits are the most common products grown
in Turkey. Cereals (66.4%), fruits (14.3%), vegetables (3.4%) and flowers are grown in agricultural areas totalling 23.4
million hectares (fallow area is 15.7%) (TUIK 2019). There is promising potential for agricultural production in Turkey,
however, the level of existing mechanisation is not promising. Akdemir (2013) reports that, although the agricultural
mechanisation level in Turkey looks greater than most of its neighbours, its mechanisation level is still behind most
developed countries according to agricultural mechanisation indicators. Oguz et al (2017) reports that tractor operating
hours per year in developing countries is 1000 hours and the mass of the agricultural implements per tractor is more than
10 tonnes, with corresponding values in Turkey equating to 350 hours and 4.5 tonnes respectively. The number of
agricultural machinery per tractor is approximately 5 units, with average tractor power of 43.3 kW, average farm size is
59 decare and the number of tractors per thousand hectare of agricultural area is 41 units in Turkey. The corresponding
values in developed countries are 15 units, 77 kW, 174 decare and 81 units respectively. Additionally, the number of
combine harvesters per thousand hectares is only 0.7 units in Turkey, this indicator being 14 units in the EU member
states, 4 units in the USA and 3 units in Canada (Oguz et al 2017). Using 2018 statistics, the total number of agricultural
tractors, total number of agricultural machinery and total number of combine harvesters in use in Turkey are 1.33 million
units, 11 million units and 17.3 thousand units respectively (TUIK 2019). This data can be considered an indication of
insufficient mechanisation levels in Turkey. In relation to tractor population, some the key graphical representation of
related data is given in Figure 4.
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“
The machinery industry is an essential sector producing investment goods among the industrial sectors and thus has a
strategic importance. According to NACE-Rev2 (Nomenclature des Activités Économiques dans la Communauté
Européenne), manufacture of agricultural and forestry machinery is a sub-branch of "The manufacturing of machine and
equipment not elsewhere classified" (Tuncel and Polat 2016). Parameters related to agricultural tractors is the key
indicator of the agricultural mechanisation level of the countries, hence the agricultural tractor market is the leading
market in the agricultural machinery industry. The Global Agricultural Tractor Market was valued at USD 55.37 billion
in 2018 and is expected to register a CAGR of 5.8% during the forecast period of 2019-2024. China and India have been
at the forefront in the number of tractors being sold with approximately 1.3 million tractors in China and over 600,000
tractors in India every year (Mordor Intelligence 2019). Increasing farm mechanisation rates, especially in developing
countries, coupled with increasing costs of farm labour can be considered a supportive factor for this growth. However,
fragmentation of land holdings and the heavy dependence of the market on commodity prices would be a limiting factor
in this situation. Charts related to size of the global agricultural tractor market is given in Figure 5.
Categorisation of agricultural machinery can be made with consideration to the agricultural practice size in the world:
Large-Scale, medium-scale and small-scale. Ozogul (2018) reports that large-scale machinery manufacturing practices
can be found in USA and Canada, medium-sized machines are manufactured in Europe both by European companies and
companies affiliated to US companies. Mexico, Brazil and Argentina can also be included in this category. The leader of
the small-scale equipment market is Japan. On the other hand, South Korea, India, Taiwan and China could increase their
share in small-scale machinery manufacturing.
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Figure 5. Global Agricultural Tractor Market
Another key indicator of the mechanisation level is agricultural equipment/machinery statistics. According to regional
agricultural practice capacity, the market share varies. The global agriculture equipment/machinery market is expected to
reach USD 243.4 billion by 2025, according to a report by Grand View Research Inc. The report predicts that global
agriculture equipment is expected to grow at a CAGR exceeding 7% from 2016-2025, due to technological advancements
in agriculture, automation and robotics (GVR 2019). It is observed in Figure 6 that the world's largest agricultural
machinery manufacturers in 2015, based on revenue, is the Deere Corporation who generated approximately USD
30 billion in revenue and was ranked highest. The EU has the top market share according to regional statistics
in 2015 (Kiss et al 2018; Statista 2019).
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In addition to market share statistics, worldwide agricultural machinery export and import values are important
parameters in order to understand the capacity of the sector. Table 1 gives the export and import values between
2013-2015 (Ozogul 2018). Data given in Table 1 shows that China, USA and Germany are the top three countries in
export respectively. Import values indicate that the top three countries are USA, Germany and France respectively. Turkey
takes 31st place and 30th place in export and import activates of the global agricultural machinery market, respectively.
Grand total 82254 81215 69893 Grand total 40760 40109 34654
Like many countries, in Turkey, the machinery sector is one of the growth sectors of the manufacturing industry.
In order to represent the Turkish machinery sector worldwide, the Turkish Mechanical Industry Platform turned into a
Federation in 2014 (MAKFED). 16 sub-sectoral associations which represent machinery manufacturers are members of
MAKFED. The latest report from the Turkish Machinery Exporters Association in Turkey (MAIB) shows that Turkey is
the 18th largest economy in the world and the 6th biggest economy in Europe, according to gross domestic product (GDP)
in 2018. GDP, which was USD 200 billion in 2001, more than tripled and reached USD 851 billion by 2018. GDP per
person in Turkey which was USD 3500 in 2002 soared to USD 10546 in 2017. Machinery is the second largest sector in
Turkey’s export portfolio. Production in the Turkish machinery sector more than doubled in 10 years. Turkey exports to
more than 200 countries (including free zones). Turkey’s machinery export, Germany, USA, England, Italy and France
are among the top five countries in 2018. Turkey’s machinery export, which was USD 8.1 billion in 2009, has reached
USD 17.1 billion in 2018 (MAIB 2019). The statistics related to Turkey’s general machinery export share are given in
Figure 7.
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Figure 7. Turkey’s general machinery export share by country
According to sub-sectoral machinery exporters (MAIB 2019), Turkish AMD&MI takes 7th place in Turkey in 2018.
130 different types of agricultural machinery and equipment include agricultural tractors (tillage machinery, tools and
equipment, fertiliser machines and equipment, seeding machinery and equipment, mowers, livestock machines and
equipment, combine harvesters, postharvest processing machines and equipment, irrigation equipment, etc.) are produced
under the AMD&MI in Turkey. According to the Turkish Ministry of Industry and Technology (entrepreneur information
system, 2017) under NACE 2830, approximately 20 thousand people work in the AMD&MI and there are
1161 manufacturers in total in this sector. In Turkey, most of the agricultural machinery manufacturers are classified as
small and medium-sized enterprises. In addition to tractors and accessories export value (approximately USD 150
million), sectoral export value has reached approximately USD 830 million in 2018 and export range was expanded to
120 different countries. In the export range of the AMD&MI, the top three countries are USA, Azerbaijan and Italy in
recent years (Figure 8). The import share of Turkey in this sector also has significant value. Total import share in 2015
was USD 283 million and top three importer countries are USA, Germany and Canada (TRMoE 2016; MAIB 2019;
TARMAKBIR 2019).
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TECHNOLOGICAL TRENDS, ITS EFFECT ON THE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AND
LIMITATIONS
It is well known that the research and development activities in industry have a vital role and the major trigger
mechanism in technology development and future trends are dependent on market, manufacturers visions and capability
and legislation. Most especially, innovative developments in AMD&MI within recent years showed that trends are mostly
focusing on Industry 4.0 aspects such as precision agriculture, mobile and web applications for agriculture, digitalising
crop varieties and yield, forecasting farm weather and modelling, Geographical Positioning Systems and Geographic
Information System (GNSS/GIS) applications, remote sensing, automated tractors and farm equipment, robotics, data
mining and warehousing, and Internet of Things (IoT). Many countries such as USA, Canada, The Netherlands, England,
and Germany have already applied some of these advanced technologies in agricultural production, and have been able
to improve their agricultural technology, reducing the total cost of agricultural production, and increasing farm size
successfully. The graphical representation of the agricultural “treadmill” based on present day technological boosts
achieved through mechanisation, plant breeding for high-yielding varieties, the use of agrochemicals and genetic
engineering, etc. is given in Figure 9 (Chen 2018). In addition to the digital and sensor based electronics technology,
adaptation of advanced design and manufacturing technology is another important issue in AMD&MI. Ozogul (2018)
mentions this issue under further development of machinery: optimisation of machinery where they take place as one of
the routes in order to reach the objectives in effective agricultural production (Figure 9).
Figure 9. The agricultural treadmill and Technology trends-driving powers and objectives.
Compared with developed countries, there are significant limitations to the application of these present-day
technologies in the mechanisation of agricultural production units in many parts of Africa, Asia and Latin America, this
situation is same for the Turkish AMD&MI. The machinery industry is an engineering-based industry, however, Turkey
is not a country which provides sufficient resources for macro-scale R&D in this context (Tuncel and Polat 2016).
Although some exceptions could be seen in the sector, it would be true to say that use of advanced engineering and
manufacturing applications based on R&D in the realisation of new products or unique product development is clearly
absent in the AMD&MI in Turkey. Within this frame, some of the future predictions regarding sectoral needs are specified
in the agricultural machinery sector report: (1) utilising higher capacity agricultural machinery for agricultural production;
(2) informatics and mechatronics applications; (3) R&D, innovation and university-industry collaborations; and
(4) expectation for a decrease in the number of small manufacturing companies related to AMD&MI in Turkey, which
are also highlighting the capital potential of the sector (Ileri 2018).
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The fact here is that the AMD&MI in Turkey suffers from a lack of professional leadership and management in modern
technology, and the ability to tackle problems in optimal design and manufacturing issues. Some of the major reasons for
this can be listed as follows: (1) Lack of investment in technology implementation; (2) Lack of qualified and/or trained
staff in this technological field; (3) Advanced Computer Aided Design/Engineering (CAD/CAE) and manufacturing
technologies are still in their infancy within the sector; (4) Insufficient level of sector-specific research highlighted
benefits to be derived from utilisation; (5) Insufficient level of sector-specific research on implementation strategies for
up-to-date design and manufacturing technologies; (6) Family-based institutionalised companies which show resistance
to change. Further, it is seen that a sector-specific systematic approach cannot be established without showing the
advantageous benefits from previous research related to design optimisation and advanced manufacturing processes such
as Additive Manufacturing (AM) technology within the agricultural machinery sector.
AM (or 3D printing) is a promising technology trend today, and since the late 1980s, AM has been penetrating the
world of manufacturing. Today all classes of engineering materials, such as plastics, metals, ceramics, and even non-
traditional materials, such as food, drugs, human tissue, and bones, can be processed using AM technology (Gebhardt and
Hötter 2016). AM usage in various industries is on the rise, steadily increasing over recent years. In order to highlight the
trend in AM in different research areas, 150 scientific research papers in total covering the years between 2005 and 2019
were reviewed in this study (Science Direct and Google Scholar search engines). The results showed that there is a rise
in the number of publications in recent years. The number of papers were 12, 24, 32 and 67 respectively in 2015, 2016,
2017 and 2018 in different research areas, however, there were no research publications related to the agricultural
machinery research area. When considering the major manufacturing industries, statistics show that the use of AM
technology is rapidly increasing and manufacturing industry is adopting this technology to itself (Figure 10)
(Ultimaker 2019). In this context, integration/implementation of an advanced design strategy and AM technology in
manufacturing processes for the development of AMD&MI is a necessity, not an option and that meeting current and
future needs in developing countries including Turkey, is required.
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CONCLUSIONS
The statistics and future projections given above underline some of the key facts: Agricultural area per person has an
increase against the growth in population; the increase in urban population future projections indicate less labour in rural
areas for agricultural production; the number of undernourished people in the world has been on the rise since 2014,
significant rise in food production and yield of agricultural fields have to be realised in order to mitigate against the hunger
threat. As a result of urbanisation in the world population, hiring labour for agricultural work is becoming expensive,
farmers are looking for cheaper alternatives by adopting machinery. There is no doubt that, in order to produce sufficient
volumes of food from currently available agricultural land, well-designed machinery and high-technology supported
mechanisation for agricultural production is one of the most vital necessities. In this context, it would be true to say that
AMD&MI should be equipped with advanced design and manufacturing technologies so that they can manage to provide
high-technology, precision and higher capacity machinery systems for efficient agricultural production in our limited
production-capable land. The FAO reports that the research agenda for the future will be more comprehensive and
complex than in the past because the resource base of agriculture and the wider environment are so much more stretched
today compared with the past. Effective exploitation of advances in information, communication and agricultural
machinery design and manufacturing technology will be necessary. Agricultural mechanisation is not an end in itself, but
a means of development. As an example of a prime manufacturing trend, the adoption of AM technology in the workplace
will continue to expand into varying industries. These types of advanced design and manufacturing technologies should
urgently be adopted by AMD&MI in order to realise well-designed and optimised agricultural machinery systems which
would help to increase the yield of agricultural production in limited areas. Therefore, having a certain level of R&D
activities is important. Under consideration of the sector specific indicators reviewed in this study, the major results reveal
that there is an insufficient level of agricultural mechanisation and sector-specific research on implementation strategies
for up-to-date design and manufacturing technologies in the AMD&MI, most especially in Turkey, like many developing
countries.
Acknowledgements
This study is an originally prepared full text research which is the extended version of an abstract publication of Journal
of Material Science and Nanotechnology (2019, Vol. 3: 22) and the abstract was presented in 2nd International Conference
on Materials Science and Materials Chemistry (ICMCMS 19) (March 20-21, 2019, London, United Kingdom).
Additionally, the authors wish to acknowledge that this study is partly supported financially by The Scientific Research
Projects Coordination Unit of Akdeniz University (Turkey).
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