2025 Tulane International Baseball Arbitration Competition

Jarren Duran v. Boston Red Sox

Submission on Behalf of Jarren Duran
Midpoint: $4.0 M
Submission by Team 1
 I. Introduction

This brief evaluates Jarren Duran’s (hereinafter “Player” or “Mr. Duran”) contributions to

the Boston Red Sox (hereinafter “Club” or “Red Sox”) and Major League Baseball (hereinafter

“MLB”) to determine his salary for the 2025 MLB season. The MLB Collective Bargaining

Agreement (“CBA”) governs this arbitration hearing and sets forth the following criteria for

determining the player’s award: (1) the quality of the Player’s contribution to this Club during the

past season; (2) the length and consistency of his career contributions; (3) the record of the Player’s

past compensation; (4) comparative baseball salaries; (5) the existence of any physical or mental

defects on the part of the Player; and (6) the recent performance of the Club, including but not

limited to, its League standing and attendance as an indication of public acceptance. 1 Any evidence

relevant to the above criteria may be submitted. 2 For comparative salary purposes, the arbitration

panel shall give particular attention to the contracts of Players with Major League service not

exceeding one annual service group above the Player’s annual service group. 3

Generally, a player with a total of between three and six years of Major League service

time (“service”) may submit the issue of their salary to final and binding arbitration. 4 In addition,

referred to as “Super Two” Players, a player with between two and three years of service may file

for arbitration to determine their salary if (a) he has accumulated at least 86 days of service during

the immediately preceding season; and (b) he ranks in the top 22% in total service in the class of

Players who have between two and three years of service. 5 Mr. Duran has accumulated 2.155 years

1
MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement. “2022-2026 Basic Agreement,” Article VI(E) § 10(a)-(b) p. 20-21.
2
Id.
3
Id.
4
Id. Article VI(E) § 1(a) p. 17.
5
Id. at § 1(b).

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 of service and meets the above-mentioned criteria, entitling him to file for arbitration for the first

time as a Super Two Player.

Mr. Duran filed for $4.5 million, and the Red Sox filed for $3.5 million, creating a midpoint

of $4 million. Mr. Duran is coming off the best season of his career and has earned a salary above

the midpoint. When compared to similar first-year arbitration-eligible players, Mr. Duran is (1)

one of the best Super Two players the MLB has seen in recent years, (2) a five-tool player who

excels on both sides of the ball, and (3) extremely durable. Therefore, this panel should award Mr.

Duran a salary of $4.5 million for the 2025 season.

II. Quality of the Player’s Contribution During the Platform Season

Jarren Duran – 2024 Platform Year Hitting Statistics and MLB Rank
G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SB AVG OBP SLG OPS fWAR wOBA wRC+
160 735 671 111 191 48 14 21 75 54 34 .285 .342 .492 .834 8.7 .357 129
1st 1st 8th 5th 1st T1st T64th T54th T60th T9th T17th T33rd T19th 22nd 5th 23rd T26th

During his 2024 platform season, Mr. Duran emerged as one of the best leadoff hitters and

outfielders in all of baseball. Recognizing his contributions throughout the year, both offensively

and defensively, Mr. Duran was the MVP of the All Star Game and was a finalist for both the Silver

Slugger (awarded to Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and Anthony Santander in the American League, and

Jackson Merrill, Teoscar Hernandez, Jurickson Profar in the National League). and Gold Glove

(awarded to Daulton Varsho).6 Mr. Duran lead all of the MLB in Plate Appearances (“PA”), At

Bats (“AB”), doubles (“2B”), triples (“3B”), and finished top ten in Runs (“R”), Hits (”H”), Stolen

Bases (“SB”), and Wins Above Replacement (“WAR”).7 Most impressively, Mr. Duran is the first

player in MLB history since at least 1901 to record 40 doubles, 10 triples, 20 home runs, and 30

6
CITE
7
CITE

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stolen bases in a single season.8 This unique combination of power, speed, and hitting versatility

underscores Mr. Duran’s exceptional all-around performance during his platform year.

A deeper dive into the advanced metrics confirms that Mr. Duran became one of the best

leadoff hitters in all of baseball. Weighted On-Base Average (“wOBA”) assigns value to each

method of reaching base, in terms of its impact on scoring runs and Mr. Duran ranked 23rd in that

category.9 He finished in a tie for 26th in Weighted Runs Created Plus (“wRC+”), which accounts

for ballpark and the quality of pitching faced. 10 Finally, Mr. Duran ranked 5th among all hitters in

fWAR, which measures a player’s value in facets of the game by deciphering how many more wins

he’s worth than a replacement-level player at his same position. 11

Jarren Duran – 2024 Platform Year Defensive

Statistics and Ranking among Outfielders
G12 DRS13 Assists14
160 23 12
1st 2nd 1st

On defense, Mr. Duran further displayed how valuable he is to the Red Sox. Mr. Duran led

all MLB outfielders in Games Played (“G”) and Assists, which occur when an outfielder throws

the ball to an infielder and an out is recorded. As previously mentioned, Mr. Duran finished second

in the American League Gold Glove award, given to players judged to be the best fielder at each

position in each league. Mr. Duran finished second in Defensive Runs Saved (“DRS”) among

outfielders, behind only Gold Glove winner Daulton Varsho.

8
https://www.nbcsportsboston.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/jarren-duran-mlb-history-red-sox-
2024/643910/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
9
https://www.mlb.com/glossary/advanced-stats/weighted-on-base-average
10
https://www.mlb.com/glossary/advanced-stats/weighted-on-base-average
11
https://www.mlb.com/glossary/advanced-stats/wins-above-replacement
12
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2024-fielding-leaders.shtml
13
https://archive.fieldingbible.com/DRSLeaderboard
14
Supra Note 12.

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 Jarren Duran – 2024 Platform Year Hitting Statistics and Team Rank15
G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SB AVG OBP SLG OPS fWAR
160 735 671 111 191 48 14 21 75 54 34 .285 .342 .492 .834 8.7
1st 1st 1st 1st 1st 1st 1st 3rd 2nd 2nd 1st 1st 3rd 3rd 3rd 1st

Furthermore, Mr. Duran was an indispensable leader of the Red Sox clubhouse. Having

not made the playoffs in two years, the Red Sox entered the 2024 season desperately looking for

a young player to step up and provide star third baseman, Rafael Devers, with some support. Mr.

Duran filled that role, leading the Club in G, PA, AB R, H, 2B, 3B, SB, AVG, and fWAR. In all

other relevant categories, Mr. Duran finished in the top three among Red Sox players, including

HR, RBI, BB, OBP, SLG, and OPS. Simply put, Mr. Duran was a force to be reconned with, and

a player the Red Sox will build around to get back to the playoffs as soon as possible.

III. Length and Consistency of Career Contributions

Jarren Duran – Career Statistics

Year G R H HR RBI BB K SB AVG OBP SLG OPS fWAR
2021 33 17 23 2 10 4 40 2 .215 .241 .336 .578 -0.4
2022 58 23 45 3 23 14 63 7 .221 .283 .363 .645 -0.1
2023 102 46 98 8 46 24 90 24 .295 .346 .482 .828 2.5
2024 160 111 191 21 111 54 160 34 .285 .342 .492 .834 6.7

Coming out of his collegiate career as a second baseman, Mr. Duran’s exceptional speed

caught the attention of MLB scouts. In 2018, the Boston Red Sox selected Mr. Duran during the

seventh round, with the 220th overall pick.16

Mr. Duran began became an everyday player during the 2023 season and has played

accumulated a full season both of the past two years. Mr. Duran has posted solid career numbers

in the two seasons that he’s played, including an average just short of .300, a slugging percentage

15
CITE
16
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/duranja01.shtml

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just short of .500, and an OPS around .830. Further, in both 2023 and 2024, Mr. Duran posted

positive fWAR, showing he adds wins to the Club both offensively and defensively.

2024 was really a breakout season for Mr. Duran, as previously stated, Mr. Duran was a

member of the All MLB second team, and a finalist for both the Silver Slugger and the Gold Glove

awards, recognizing his excellence on both sides of the field. Moreover, during this past season,

Mr. Duran was recognized as an All-Star, MVP of the All-Star game, and finished 8th in MVP

voting. These awards show the quality of his contributions both from a fan perspective (All-Star)

and amongst peers and voters (MVP). Thus, though Mr. Duran has only compiled two complete

seasons at the major league level, those two seasons have been excellent.

IV. Past Salary Compensation

Jarren Duran – Past Compensation17

Year Age Team Salary Service Time
2021 24 Boston Red Sox $187,087 0.080
2022 25 Boston Red Sox $303,834 0.075
2023 26 Boston Red Sox $984,464 1.000
2024 27 Boston Red Sox $2,081,661 1.000

V. Comparative Baseball Salaries

A. Randy Arozarena/Super Twos

Jarren Duran – 2024 Platform Year Statistics

G R HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS fWAR wRC+
160 111 21 75 54 160 34 7 .285 .342 .492 .834 8.7 129
Randy Arozarena – 2022 Platform Year Statistics 18
G R HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS fWAR19 wRC+
153 72 20 89 46 156 32 12 .283 .327 .445 .773 2.7 124

17
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/earnings/_/id/26253/jarren-duran
18
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/arozara01.shtml
19
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/randy-arozarena/19290/stats?position=CF

5
 Randy Arozarena of the Tampa Bay Rays represents the best comparison to Mr. Duran. In

his first year of arbitration eligibility, Mr. Arozarena avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $4.15

million contract for the 2022 season, slightly above the midpoint.20 Mr. Arozarena represents the

most comparable player to Mr. Arozarena because both players were super-two players. More

specifically, both players became everyday players during their third season of play at the major

league level and had two full seasons at the major league level going into arbitration (hence, why

they are super twos). Comparing the two players platform year, both played over 150 games and

hit .280 with 20 home runs. Further, both walked roughly 50 times and stole thirty bases. Where

the two players differ in the platform year is power and defense. Mr. Duran slugged for .492 with

an OPS of .834. Mr. Arozarena on the other hand, slugged for .445 with an OPS of .773.

Moreover, when comparing Mr. Duran’s 8.7 fWAR to Mr. Arozarena’s 2.7, the two players

become incomparable. Mr. Duran helped his team win 6 more games above average compared to

Mr. Arozarena when looking at the stat that accounts for the totality of a players contributions,

including defense.

Jarren Duran – Career Statistics

G R HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS fWAR wRC+
353 197 34 142 96 353 67 11 .272 .326 .457 .782 10.0 112
Randy Arozarena – Career Statistics21
G R HR RBI *BB *K SB *CS AVG OBP SLG OPS *fWAR22 wRC+
375 211 60 190 121 389 65 23 .271 .348 .478 .826 9.4 124
*2020 and career statistics with an asterisk have been extrapolated

Though Mr. Arozarena’s career stats look significantly more impressive, it is important to

understand that these statistics are hyper inflated. Mr. Arozarena had the advantage of playing

20
Insert cite (baseball prospectus)
21
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/arozara01.shtml
22
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/randy-arozarena/19290/stats?position=CF

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only 23 games during the covid shortened season. Admittedly he played well, provide an

inaccurate picture. Hence, it is more appropriate to consider the players’ platform year statistics

when determining an arbitration award. Thus, Mr. Duran’s superior numbers warrant awarding

an award at least comparable to Mr. Arozarena’s, well above the $4 million midpoint at issue in

this proceeding.

Some may argue that Mr. Arozarena’s early accolades justify his salary being above

today’s midpoint. Early in his career, Mr. Arozarena had some success both in the playoffs

(winning 2020 ALCS MVP) and in his rookie season (winning rookie of the year). This further

illustrates the value of Mr. Duran. An ALCS MVP is significant, yet it is an award only taking

into account seven games. A rookie of the year though impressive, illustrates that Mr. Arozarena

had an excellent first season of professional baseball. Contrast this to Mr. Duran’s significant

over achievement of Mr. Arozarena in the platform years with the fact that Mr. Duran was named

All MLB Second-team and was a finalist for both the Silver Slugger and a Gold Glove,

B. Kyle Tucker

Jarren Duran – 2024 Platform Year Statistics

G R HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS fWAR wRC+
160 111 21 75 54 160 34 7 .285 .342 .492 .834 8.7 129
Kyle Tucker – 2022 Platform Year Statistics 23
G R HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS fWAR24 wRC+
150 71 30 107 59 95 25 4 .257 .330 .478 .808 5.4 130

Kyle Tucker’s platform year playing for the Houston Astros illustrates another example of

why Mr. Duran deserves a salary above the midpoint. Mr. Duran and Mr. Tucker had comparable

platform years to one another. Mr. Duran’s value as a leadoff hitter lies in his ability to get on base,

23
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kyle-tucker/18345/stats?position=1B
24
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tuckeky01.shtml

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score runs, and set the table for the lineup, while Mr. Tucker might excel in HRs and RBIs from

hitting in the 5-hole. Further, Mr. Tucker benefits from hitting behind stronger offensive players,

which inflates his RBI totals. However, Mr. Duran creates scoring opportunities by himself, and

his speed allows him to turn singles into doubles and stretch plays more effectively. On the bases,

Mr. Duran’s speed further highlights his ability to create runs and pressure defenses in ways Mr.

Tucker cannot match, such as Mr. Duran having almost 10 more SB than Mr. Tucker. With Mr.

Duran’s wRC+ being nearly the same as Mr. Tucker’s, it shows Mr. Duran’s offensive

contributions are equal, if not better than Mr. Tucker’s, even without the raw power numbers, and

Mr. Duran’s higher WAR suggests his over impact is greater. Thus, Mr. Tucker’s $5 million award

sets a precedent for dynamic outfielders with a strong offensive and speed combination, which

supports Mr. Duran receiving at least a salary above the midpoint.

Jarren Duran – Career Statistics

G R HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS fWAR wRC+
353 197 34 142 96 353 67 11 .272 .326 .457 .782 10.0 112
Kyle Tucker – Career Statistics25
G R HR RBI *BB *K SB *CS AVG OBP SLG OPS *fWAR26 wRC+
497 268 88 327 126 274 67 7 .268 .333 .504 .837 12.0 139
*2020 and career statistics with an asterisk have been extrapolated

Comparing Mr. Tucker’s career numbers to Mr. Duran’s may illustrate why Mr. Tucker

was worth a million dollars more than the midpoint at issue today. Mr. Tucker simply has played

in more games. Many of the stats including R, HR, and RBI’s are simply counting statistics that

benefit a player that has played in more games. When looking at average stats such as AVG,

25

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kyle-tucker/18345/stats?position=OF
26

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tuckeky01.shtml

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OBP, SLG, and OPS, we see similar numbers. Though Mr. Tucker hits for more power (thus

resulting in a higher OPS), statistics such as AVG and OBP illustrate that Mr. Duran gets on base

at a similar clip. Though Mr. Duran may not be worth the $5 million that was awarded to Mr.

Tucker, his similar statistics in many important categories combined with his dominant platform

year illustrate that he is at least worth one million less than Mr. Tucker. As such, Mr. Duran is

deserving of an award above the $4 million midpoint.

C. Cedric Mullins

Jarren Duran – 2024 Platform Year Statistics

G R HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS fWAR wRC+
160 111 21 75 54 160 34 7 .285 .342 .492 .834 8.7 129
Cedric Mullins – 2022 Platform Year Statistics 27
G R HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS fWAR28 wRC+
156 89 16 64 47 126 34 10 .258 .318 .403 .721 4.0 108

Cedric Mullins of the Baltimore Orioles represents another great comparison to Mr.

Duran as both players are center fielders who rely more on speed than power on the offensive

side of the ball. Mr. Mullins avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $4.1 million dollar contract with

the Baltimore Orioles prior to the start of the 2023 season. When comparing their all important

platform season, it is clear that Mr. Duran produced better numbers. Mr. Duran bested Mr.

Mullins in every important statistical category, including runs scored, RBIs, AVG, OPS, fWAR,

and wRC+.

Jarren Duran – Career Statistics

G R HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS fWAR wRC+
353 197 34 142 96 353 67 11 .272 .326 .457 .782 10.0 112

27
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/cedric-mullins/17929/stats?position=OF
28
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mullice01.shtml

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 Cedric Mullins – Career Statistics 29
G R HR RBI *BB *K SB *CS AVG OBP SLG OPS *fWAR30 wRC+
693 346 86 278 106 299 125 19 .252 .320 .425 .744 7.6 107
*2020 and career statistics with an asterisk have been extrapolated

When comparing their career numbers, it is easy to get lost in statistics and justify Mr.

Mullin’s career stats over Mr. Duran’s. However, similar to Mr. Arozarena, many of these stats

are misleading because they over inflate the value of a few good games played in a shortened

covid season. Thus, it is more telling of the value of these two players by looking at their rate

statistics. When doing so, it is easy to justify awarding Mr. Duran an award above the $4.1 given

to Mr. Mullins. Mr. Duran has a higher AVG, OBP, SLG, and OPS. This is significant because

though Mr. Mullins won a silver slugger during the 2021 season, the power numbers actually

favor Mr. Duran. Thus, both the dominance of Mr. Duran during the platform year and across his

career justify awarding him a salary above the $4 million midpoint, and at least above the $4.1

million given to Mr. Mullins.

VI. Existence of Physical or Mental Defects

Mr. Duran has no present physical or mental defects and looks forward to more

productive seasons for years to come. 31 In his platform year, Mr. Duran played in 160 games and

did not appear at any point on the injured list. He is currently healthy and plans to move forward

accordingly.

VII. Performance of the Club

The 2024 season started out hopeful for the Red Sox. It was a productive season, despite

finishing 81-81, good for third in the AL East. Playing in an extremely competitive AL East, the

29 https://www.fangraphs.com/players/cedric-mullins/17929/stats?position=OF
30
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mullice01.shtml
31
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/player/119003/jarren-duran/

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Red Sox routinely had to play games against the talented Baltimore Orioles and World Series

losing New York Yankees. On top of playing in a competitive division, the Red Sox were riddled

with injuries. Despite finishing five games back from the second wild card spot, the Red Sox lost

approximately 9.04 WAR due to injuries, the fourth worst in the MLB. 32

However, one of the few bright spots for a competitive Red Sox team was Mr. Duran. As

mentioned above, Mr. Duran played in 160 of 162 games and led the Club in G, PA, AB R, H,

2B, 3B, SB, AVG, and fWAR. Additionally, Mr. Duran finished in the top three among Red Sox

players, including HR, RBI, BB, OBP, SLG, and OPS. Mr. Duran occupied a critical leadoff spot

in the batting order (first) in 153 games, was named the MVP of the All Star Game, member of

the All MLB second team, and was a finalist for both the Silver Slugger and Gold Glove awards,

recognizing his excellence both at the plate and defensively in the outfield. Mr. Duran looks

forward to building upon his success this past season and continuing to be a key contributor to

the Club in 2025 and beyond as they look to get back to the playoffs and winning a World Series.

VIII. Conclusion

INSERT

32
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/river-ryan-jazz-chisholm-and-baseballs-most-injured-teams/

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 VI. Conclusion

In his major league career, Mr. García has demonstrated that he not only is one of the best

power-hitting corner outfielders in the game today but is also consistently improving year after

year. His power numbers continue to increase while his strikeouts continue to go down. When

judged against comparable first-year arbitration-eligible outfielder Kyle Tucker, Mr. García shows

the importance of trending upward. Mr. Tucker lost his arbitration proceeding, in large part because

he took a step back during his platform season where Mr. Garcia thrived. Moreover, when

compared to other first-year arbitration-eligible outfielders Mark Trumbo and Khris Davis, Mr.

García shows comparable to far better career hitting statistics combined with far better defensive

statistics. Mr. García produces more for his team on offense, along with being an asset to his team

on defense whereas Mark Trumbo and Khris Davis were liabilities for their respective teams. Mr.

García’s contributions to his team both during his platform year and across his career are deserving

of a salary above what Mark Trumbo and Khris Davis were compensated by their respective teams.

When adjusting those salaries for inflation based on the historical average MLB salary increases,

Mr. García deserves to be compensated above the $6.5 million midpoint. Based on the evidence

provided in this brief and in oral argument, Mr. Garcia respectfully requests that this panel find

Mr. García’s filing of $8 million to be a more accurate reflection of Mr. García’s present value than

the Ranger’s filing of $5 million and that his proper valuation is above the $6.5 million midpoint.

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