Q1 0.

796492575
Q2 1.047603248
Q3 1.266831058
Q4 0.887613504

Year Quarter Year-Quarter Total Moving Average Centered Moving Average Seasonal- Irregular Value
1996 1 1996-1 10222
1996 2 1996-2 13549
1996 3 1996-3 16632 13194.625 1.26051327718673
1996 4 1996-4 11983 13096.5 13458 0.890399762223213
1997 1 1997-1 11007 13292.75 13807.75 0.797161014647571
1997 2 1997-2 14871 13623.25 14116.5 1.05344809265753
1997 3 1997-3 18108 13992.25 14339.375 1.26281654535152
1997 4 1997-4 12977 14240.75 14626.375 0.887232824264385
1998 1 1998-1 11796 14438 15047 0.783943643251146
1998 2 1998-2 16378 14814.75 15426.375 1.06168818014602
1998 3 1998-3 19966 15279.25 15727.875 1.26946583692966
1998 4 1998-4 14154 15573.5 15995.125 0.884894616328413
1999 1 1999-1 13031 15882.25 16252 0.801809008122077
1999 2 1999-2 17281 16108 16488.875 1.04803996634094
1999 3 1999-3 21118 16396 16643.5 1.2688436927329
1999 4 1999-4 14897 16581.75 16904.625 0.881238122703106
2000 1 2000-1 13525 16705.25 17305 0.781566021381104
2000 2 2000-2 18876 17104 17637.875 1.07019694832853
2000 3 2000-3 22726 17506 17834.625 1.27426284544811
2000 4 2000-4 15952 17769.75 17773.75 0.897503340600605
2001 1 2001-1 14044 17899.5 17658.75 0.795299780562044
2001 2 2001-2 17870 17648 17509.125 1.02061068157318
2001 3 2001-3 22812 17669.5 17371.125 1.31321373831574
2001 4 2001-4 14669 17348.75 17503.625 0.838054974326747
2002 1 2002-1 14223 17393.5 17665.125 0.805145732056807
2002 2 2002-2 18751 17613.75 17972.375 1.04332343388116
2002 3 2002-3 23223 17716.5 18287 1.26991852135397
2002 4 2002-4 16716 18228.25 18471.125 0.904980070244774
2003 1 2003-1 14693 18345.75 18738.875 0.784091894524084
2003 2 2003-2 19754 18596.5 19034.625 1.03779296939131
2003 3 2003-3 24362 18881.25 19361.75 1.25825403178948
2003 4 2003-4 17943 19188 19773 0.907449552419967
2004 1 2004-1 16083 19535.5 20229.375 0.795031977013625
2004 2 2004-2 21654 20010.5 20601.75 1.05107575812734
2004 3 2004-3 26113 20448.25 20984.25 1.24440949759939
2004 4 2004-4 19171 20755.25 21377.875 0.896768270934319
2005 1 2005-1 17915 21213.25 21731.375 0.824384099027328
2005 2 2005-2 22971 21542.5 22039.75 1.04225320160165
2005 3 2005-3 27624 21920.25 22159.25 1.24661258842244
2005 4 2005-4 20127 22159.25
 MAPE 2.63005629684642
10

Quarter Seasonal Index Deseonal Migrations X Predicted Deseasonal Sales Predicted Sales
Q1 0.79649257451 12833.766851241 1 13035.39 10382.5913408
Q2 1.04760324801 12933.3314170209 2 13263.78 13895.1790088
Q3 1.26683105751 13128.822427713 3 13492.17 17092.2999892
Q4 0.88761350378 13500.2452632038 4 13720.56 12178.5543355
Q1 0.79649257451 13819.3378723938 5 13948.95 11110.2350972
Q2 1.04760324801 14195.2595396352 6 14177.34 14852.2274321
Q3 1.26683105751 14293.9343747611 7 14405.73 18249.6261701
Q4 0.88761350378 14620.1020429439 8 14634.12 12989.442528
Q1 0.79649257451 14809.9309114888 9 14862.51 11837.8788536
Q2 1.04760324801 15633.7812346275 10 15090.9 15809.2758553
Q3 1.26683105751 15760.5861346632 11 15319.29 19406.952351
Q4 0.88761350378 15946.1296382698 12 15547.68 13800.3307205
Q1 0.79649257451 16360.4789511369 13 15776.07 12565.5226099
Q2 1.04760324801 16495.748779802 14 16004.46 16766.3242786
Q3 1.26683105751 16669.941800652 15 16232.85 20564.2785319
Q4 0.88761350378 16783.2056818783 16 16461.24 14611.218913
Q1 0.79649257451 16980.6981669961 17 16689.63 13293.1663663
Q2 1.04760324801 18018.2717416552 18 16918.02 17723.3727018
Q3 1.26683105751 17939.2507510946 19 17146.41 21721.6047129
Q4 0.88761350378 17971.7860668136 20 17374.8 15422.1071055
Q1 0.79649257451 17632.3049949939 21 17603.19 14020.8101227
Q2 1.04760324801 17057.9845318594 22 17831.58 18680.4211251
Q3 1.26683105751 18007.1366775487 23 18059.97 22878.9308938
Q4 0.88761350378 16526.3371247548 24 18288.36 16232.995298
Q1 0.79649257451 17857.0402979065 25 18516.75 14748.453879
Q2 1.04760324801 17898.9517603187 26 18745.14 19637.4695483
Q3 1.26683105751 18331.5682562999 27 18973.53 24036.2570747
Q4 0.88761350378 18832.521056473 28 19201.92 17043.8834906
Q1 0.79649257451 18447.1274061126 29 19430.31 15476.0976354
Q2 1.04760324801 18856.3752905624 30 19658.7 20594.5179716
Q3 1.26683105751 19230.6620961968 31 19887.09 25193.5832556
Q4 0.88761350378 20214.8794757295 32 20115.48 17854.7716831
Q1 0.79649257451 20192.2786410202 33 20343.87 16203.7413918
Q2 1.04760324801 20670.0390068765 34 20572.26 21551.5663948
Q3 1.26683105751 20612.8511336502 35 20800.65 26350.9094365
Q4 0.88761350378 21598.3645114646 36 21029.04 18665.6598756
Q1 0.79649257451 22492.3628585386 37 21257.43 16931.3851482
Q2 1.04760324801 21927.1943302374 38 21485.82 22508.6148181
Q3 1.26683105751 21805.5910740226 39 21714.21 27508.2356174
Q4 0.88761350378 22675.4098650174 40 21942.6 19476.5480681
Q1 0.79649257451 41 22170.99 17659.0289045
Q2 1.04760324801 42 22399.38 23465.6632413
Q3 1.26683105751 43 22627.77 28665.5617983
Q4 0.88761350378 44 22856.16 20287.4362606
Error Term
0.01571
0.02555
0.027676
0.016319
0.009379
0.001262
0.007821
0.000959
0.00355
0.034725
0.028
0.024987
0.035721
0.029783
0.02622
0.019184
0.017141
0.061063
0.044196
0.033218
0.001651
0.045351
0.002934
0.106619
0.036944
0.047276
0.035019
0.019615
0.053297
0.042549
0.034134
0.004917
0.007507
0.00473
0.009111
0.02636
0.054905
0.020129
0.004191
0.032317
 Total
30000 35000

25000 30000

20000 25000

15000 20000

10000
15000
5000
10000
0
-1 -3 -1 -3 -1 -3 -1 -3 -1 -3 -1 -3 -1 -3 -1 -3 -1 -3 -1 -3 5000
996 996 997 997 998 998 999 999 000 000 001 001 002 002 003 003 004 004 005 005
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
0
1 3 5 7 9 1

Deseonal Migrations
25000

20000 f(x) = 228.386069301375 x + 12807.1253302612

15000

10000

5000

0
-1 -3 -1 -3 -1 -3 -1 -3 -1 -3 -1 -3 -1 -3 -1 -3 -1 -3 -1 -3
96 96 97 97 98 98 99 99 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
 Chart Title
35000

30000

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39

Total Predicted Sales