1.

3 Sustainability and Carrying Capacity The story of recent famines and food crises brings
up one of the central environmental questions: What is the maximum number of people the
Earth can sustain? That is, what is the sustainable human carrying capacity of the Earth?
Much of this book will deal with information that helps answer this question. However, there
is little doubt that we are using many renewable environmental resources faster than they
can be replenished—in other words, we are using them unsustainably. In general, we are
using forests and fish faster than they can regrow, and we are eliminating habitats of
endangered species and other wildlife faster than they can be replenished. We are also
extracting minerals, petroleum, and groundwater without sufficient concern for their limits or
the need to recycle them. As a result, there is a shortage of some resources and a
probability of more shortages in the future. Clearly, we must learn how to sustain our
environmental resources so that they continue to provide benefits for people and other living
things on our planet. atmosphere, the waters—would last for a few hundred or thousands of
years but in a modest length of time would be erased by natural processes. What we are
concerned with, as environmentalists, is the quality of the human environment on Earth, for
us today and for our children. Environmentalists agree that sustainability must be Apago
PDF Enhancer Sustainability: The Environmental Objective The environmental catchphrase
of the 1990s was “saving our planet.” Are all life and the environments on which life depends
really in danger? Will we leave behind a dead planet? In the long view of planetary evolution,
it is certain that planet Earth will survive us. Our sun is likely to last another several billion
years, and if all humans became ex tinct in the next few years, life would still flourish here on
Earth. The changes we have made—in the landscape, the achieved, but we are unclear
about how to achieve it, in part because the word is used to mean different things, often
leading to confusion that causes people to work at cross-purposes. Sustainability has two
formal scientific meanings with respect to environment: (1) sustainability of resources, such
as a species of fish from the ocean, a kind of tree from a forest, coal from mines; and (2)
sustainabil ity of an ecosystem. Strictly speaking, harvesting a resource at a certain rate is
sustainable if we can continue to harvest that resource at that same rate for some specified
time well into the future. An ecosystem is sustainable if it can con tinue its primary functions
for a specified time in the fu ture. (Economists refer to the specified time in the future as a
“planning time horizon.”) Commonly, in discussions about environmental problems, the time
period is not specified and is assumed to be very long—mathematically an infinite planning
time, but in reality as long as it could possibly matter to us. For conservation of the environ
ment and its resources to be based on quantitative science, both a rate of removal and a
planning time horizon must be specified. However, ecosystems and species are always
undergoing change, and a completely operational defini tion of sustainability will have to
include such variation over time. Economists, political scientists, and others also use the
term sustainability in reference to types of develop ment that are economically viable, do not
harm the en vironment, and are socially just (fair to all people). We should also point out that
the term sustainable growth is an oxymoron (i.e., a contradictory term) because any steady
(b) 1.3 Sustainability and Carrying Capacity 9 growth (fixed-percentage growth per year)
produces large numbers in modest periods of time (see Exponential Growth in Chapter 3).
One of the environmental paradigms of the 21st cen tury will be sustainability, but how will it
be attained? Economists have begun to consider what is known as the sustainable global
economy: the careful management and wise use of the planet and its resources, analogous
to the management of money and goods. Those focusing on a sustainable global economy
generally agree that under present conditions the global economy is not sustainable.
Increasing numbers of people have resulted in so much pollution of the land, air, and water
that the ecosystems that people depend on are in danger of collapse. What, then, are the
attributes of a sustainable economy in the information age?15 Populations of humans and
other organisms living in harmony with the natural support systems, such as air, water, and
land (including ecosystems). An energy policy that does not pollute the atmosphere, cause
climate change (such as global warming), or pose unacceptable risk (a political or social
decision). A plan for renewable resources—such as water, forests, grasslands, agricultural
lands, and fisheries—that will not deplete the resources or damage ecosystems. A plan for
nonrenewable resources that does not dam age the environment, either locally or globally,
and en sures that a share of our nonrenewable resources will be left to future generations.
Institute economic planning, including a tax structure that will encourage population control
and wise use of resources. Financial aid for developing countries is ab solutely necessary to
narrow the gap between rich and poor nations. Implement social, legal, political, and
educational changes that help to maintain a quality local, regional, and global environment.
This must be a serious com mitment that all the people of the world will cooperate with.
Moving toward Sustainability: Some Criteria Stating that we wish to develop a sustainable
future ac knowledges that our present practices are not sustainable. Indeed, continuing on
our present paths of overpopula tion, resource consumption, and pollution will not lead to
sustainability. We will need to develop new concepts that will mold industrial, social, and
environmental interests into an integrated, harmonious system. In other words, we need to
develop a new paradigm, an alternative to our present model for running society and
creating wealth.16 The new paradigm might be described as follows.17 Apago PDF
Enhancer Evolutionary rather than revolutionary. Developing a sus tainable future will require
an evolution in our values that involves our lifestyles as well as social, economic, and
environmental justice. A social, legal, and political system that is dedicated to sustainability,
with a democratic mandate to produce such an economy. Recognizing that population is the
environmental problem, we should keep in mind that a sustainable glob al economy will not
be constructed around a completely stable global population. Rather, such an economy will
take into account that the size of the human population will fluctuate within some stable
range necessary to main tain healthy relationships with other components of the
environment. To achieve a sustainable global economy, we need to do the following:15
Develop an effective population-control strategy. This will, at least, require more education of
people, since literacy and population growth are inversely related. Completely restructure
our energy programs. A sustain able global economy is probably impossible if it is based on
the use of fossil fuels. New energy plans will be based on an integrated energy policy, with
more emphasis on renewable energy sources (such as solar and wind) and on energy
conservation. Inclusive, not exclusive. All peoples of Earth must be in cluded. This means
bringing all people to a higher stan dard of living in a sustainable way that will not compro
mise our environment. Proactive, not reactive. We must plan for change and for events such
as human population problems, resource shortages, and natural hazards, rather than waiting
for them to surprise us and then reacting. This may some times require us to apply the
Precautionary Principle, which we discuss with science and values (Section 1.7). Attracting,
not attacking. People must be attracted to the new paradigm because it is right and just.
Those who speak for our environment should not take a hostile stand but should attract
people to the path of sustain ability through sound scientific argument and appropri ate
values. Assisting the disadvantaged, not taking advantage. This involves issues of
environmental justice. All people have the right to live and work in a safe, clean environment.
Working people around the globe need to receive a liv ing wage—wages sufficient to support
their families. Exploitation of workers to reduce the costs of manufac turing goods or growing
food diminishes us all. 10 CHAPTER 1 Key Themes in Environmental Sciences (a) FIGURE
1.9 How many people do we want on Earth? (a) Streets of Calcutta; (b) Davis, California.
The Carrying Capacity of the Earth Carrying capacity is a concept related to sustainability. It
is usually defined as the maximum number of individuals of a species that can be sustained
by an environment with out decreasing the capacity of the environment to sustain that same
number in the future. There are limits to the Earth’s potential to support humans. If we used
Earth’s total photosynthetic potential with present technology and efficiency to support 6.8 bil
lion people, Earth could support a human population of about 15 billion. However, in doing
this, we would share our land with very little else.18, 19 When we ask “What is the maximum
number of people that Earth can sustain?” we are asking not just about Earth’s carrying
capacity but also about sustainability. Apago PDF Enhancer detail in later chapters,
scientists now believe that emis sions of modern chemicals are changing the ozone layer
high in the atmosphere. Scientists also believe that burn ing fossil fuels increases the
concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, which may change Earth’s cli mate.
These atmospheric changes suggest that the actions of many groups of people, at many
locations, affect the environment of the entire world.20 Another new idea ex plored in later
chapters is that not only human life but also nonhuman life affects the environment of our
whole planet and has changed it over the course of several billion years. These two new
ideas have profoundly affected our approach to environmental issues. As we pointed out,
what we consider a “desirable human carrying capacity” depends in part on our values
(Figure 1.9). Do we want those who follow us to live short lives in crowded conditions,
without a chance to enjoy Earth’s scenery and diversity of life? Or do we hope that our
descendants will have a life of high quality and good health? Once we choose a goal
regarding the quality of life, we can use scientific information to understand what the
sustainable carrying capacity might be and how we might achieve it.