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2019 6

i. 1

ii . 8

1. 9

2. 17
iii . 22

1. 23

2. 26
iv . 29

1 31

32
1.

2. 37

3. 41

4. 44
6 2 48

1. 49

2. ; 56

3. 62
, 3 66

1. 67

2. 73

3. 76

viii 4 78

1. 79

2. ; 83

3. 87

4. 89

5. 92
ix 96

1. 97

2. 101

3. 103

, 105

110
1.

41

20 5

*(1 ) 08 ~ 30 ( ) 14 ~ 35 ( ) 19 ~ 40

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
* :( ) (
/ ),

(5 )
2. (' 14 )

1.

(bau):
0.9% 35 254.1 TOE (11,205.9 TOE)
: 35 BAU 13%

/
35 15%
,ict
35 15%
,

, ,
,
11%(1 )
,
,
( 15 ~)
2.

()

* ICT

3.

:
( )
*

* (' 14)

()

17 ( TOE):( )218.2 ( )233.9

()
*

* (40 )
(500 )

()

* **

* ( 15.7) (
16.6 ) * (pm2.5 ):(16)3.07 (17)2.70 (18)2.
29
() -,

- ,

( 17% %):( )5.2 ( )8.1

()

*( 17 %):( )16 . 1,( )4 . 9,( )6 . 5,( )


1.1 ( )17 ( )54 4

lng ,

lng

* (%): (14)84 (15)82 86(16) ( 17)82 (18)74 *


(%): (15)75 76(16) ( 17)65 (18)61
()

:
; ;
,,

( ) 15 (15)

:
()
1.

World Energy Outlook 2018, IEA

( )17 - 40 25%

,,

(
)

(17 81%) 74% ( 40)


() 1
,

( ) 40 1.6% 30

1
2

(
()
,(,)

)
(;

, oecd

1 45%

) 40

, 40
1 17% (41%)

< >
( :mtoe, %)

00 17 25 40 ( 17 40)
3 665(37%)4 435(32%)4 0.4%
27543(31%)
071(21%)
4 894 107 (22%)3 4
(28%) 1.6%
2 (23%)
539 308(23%)436
3 (25%)
3 750(27%) 0.1%
675 688
(7%) (5%)
768(24%)3 809 (22%)805 (5%)971 (5%) 1.5%
662(7%) 1 334(10%)1 3 3.6%
855
10,027 0.01415,388
(12%)13,972 (17%) 17,715 1.0%
IEA Outlook 2018
),,
(

() 40
(1.0%) (4.4%)
17 00 ~

(
90
) 40 17 2

< >
( :MTOE %)

00 17 25 40 ( 17 40)
2,678 2,624 2,675 2,693 0.1%
- 2,271 2,148 2,185 2,149 0.0%
449 667 730 916 1.4%
- 184 285 315 391 1.4%
2,028 2,008 1,934 1,752 0.6%
- 1,693 1,621 1,512 1,274 1.0%
490 829 980 1,299 2.0%
- 103 131 133 138 0.2%
353 740 846 1,200 2.1%
742 911 943 1,019 0.5%
- 621 730 745 769 0.2%
3,012 5,789 6,803 8,201 1.5%
- 1,143 3,051 3,509 3,858 1.0%
- 441 898 1,238 1,880 3.3%
- 518 428 415 379 0.5%
- 383 664 826 1,110 2.3%
274 404 476 635 2.0%
IEA
10,027
Outlook 2018
13,972 15,388 17,715 1.0%
2020

(15.12) (16.11)21

* 20 (1997 ) 23 5

(10 17,USD/kWh, IRENA) -(


)0.36 0.10 ( )0.33 0.22 ( )0.17 0.14
2/3

* 17 (%,iea):( )66.7% 3.8( )


( )29 . 5
RE100

* 100%
167 (19.3)
17 40
45% (World Energy Outlook 2018, IEA)

* ( ' 17):(15)8EJ (' 50)78EJ

*( ) (17.12)

( ) 100 1000 (30)


( ) (18.8)

(% IEA):(' 00) 1 (' 17)13 (' 25)21 (' 40)


23 * 18 48% 680
(WoodMac)
(OPEC)
,
*

**

17 1.8 2%; 2360


3% (IEA)
40 700 (IEA)

(16)4 (
)170 ( )
( 1500 )

ai

( )E.ON : ESS
SolarCloud
*( )Sonnen ( ):
(Sonnen Community)

IT

: (09) :
(11 ~ 12)
,

50
3055%; 08 50
1990 60%22
50 ( 50%) 80%
80%
95%
30 0.530
13 ( ) 30 30
26%
( 13 22 -
) 24%( 20 -
) 22%
50 20 30
07 35
8 ( 30% 13
0%( 199 1 (14GW)
0 ) 8%)

30 20% 30 35
30 40% 12 )
1990 50 50% 32% 50%
50 ( 75% 40%
7
5%
(Energiew

ende)

- 22
38

(19)

/ (%):(10)19 / 43 (17)35 / 39
-

08
90 - - 10
20 40% 10% 35% 20% -
22 - - - - 100%
30 55% 30% 65% - -
50 80 ~ 95%60% 80% 50% -

(11)

, (3e + s)

3E+S: Energy Security, Economic Efficiency, Environment + Safety


-

9 9( 19.1 ) , 41

(18) ,

< 2030 >


(10 ) (14 )
30 (18 ) 50 50
20 22 ~ 24 22 ~ 24
50 20 ~ 22 20 ~ 22
30 13 (3.6 ) 0.5
( )( )
*

(17)

~
(25)

Clean Growth Strategy:


(de-coupling )
35 13

(15)

(15)

25 50%( 17,
(17,17% 30,40%)

50% 18.11)
73%)

- 35 (

(18.6%)

, 000
* : 45 100%

2 2

* / / (%):(10)11 / 12 / 19 (17)17 / 30 / 20
2.

( 00 17)

()2.7%

* 80 - 00 7.2% ,

( )

2.7%
* 80 - 00 7.3% ,

( )

(000 )4.5%

* 90 ( 9.8%) , (164.3 3.7%)

*
()
:( )0.5 0.3( )( )0 1,( ) 0.6 0.5(
) (oecd)
() 0.7
1.3% (62.6%
(3.2% 164.3)
50.4%)

() 1

) 10
90 11.0% )

< >
( ) (3.2%
164.3 2.7%)

(1.9%) (0.4%)( )

), (
,

(2.9%); (2.2%)
(2.4% )
)

(1.2% ),

(,,)

- *
(15%):( )48.8 (OECD )
29.5
(
) 14

(% ' 00 ' 15):( )2.4


(OECD )0.7

< >
* (pm2.5) ( ):(16)92 (18) 17)146 (158

(11.3) (16.9) (17.11)

00 10

25%
(% ):(90)11.8 (' 00)17.0 (15)24.6 *
( ) : 55%(' 17 )

* (15):( ) , 29.5%,( )23 . 3 21.2%


( ) ( )14 . 4 * (15):( ) , 18.1%,( )
4 . 4,( )2 5
00

OECD 36 33

(17 p, TOE/1 GDP 1


)- 0.159 0.123 0.089,OECD 0.105( (PPP)
)

* ( ,%):( 1 0 (14)15)1 . 7 2.4


(16)(17)2 . 8

ESS

, ioe (internet of energy) ,

* (13)
< >

2017 :

(17.10)

30 20%

3020 (17.12)
31

8 ( 17 . 12)

2018 :

( 18.6)

4
( 22 6 ),

( 18

176)

( 18 5)

2019 :

(19.1)
,

(19)
1.

1.

0.1%

),
( 31

1 0.6%

* (' 15)
(' 16.12)

~
( 17 40 . 2.0%

* (KDI) (' 17)

( )
(17)
< >
( : 10
17 30 40 ) (%)
30.6 33.0 32.5 0.26
452.2 585.4 656.8 1.64
104.3 128.3 140.0 1.29
- 280.3 375.7 430.4 1.88
SOC( ) 100.2 117.9 123.0 0.90
827.0 1191.8 1393.2 2.29
2. (BAU ' 17 ' 40)

(BAU)

( )

*
0.6%
*
*
0.8%
*

1.1%
< >
(%)
17 30 40
17 ~ 30 30 ~
40 17 - 40
( toe) 244.1 281.1 279.9 1.1 0.04 0.6

( toe) 176.0 204.9 211.0 1.2 0.3 0.8

(TOE/ 0.113
) 0.096 0.087 1 2 1 1 1 1
< >
( : TOE
17 30 )30 30 ~
40 0.917 ~(%)
86.0 97.1 85.3 40 17 -140 3 0 0
62.9 61.8 57.8 0 1 0.7 0.4
47.2 58.7 71.2 1.7 2.0 1.8
1.5 1.8 2.1 1.6 1.2 1.5
31.6 29.8 24.0 0.4 2 1 1 2
15.0 31.8 39.4 6.0 2.2 4.3
244.1 281.1 279.9 1.1 0.04 0.6

< >
( : TOE
30 40 17 ~ )30 30 (%)~
17
33.2 39.7 39.0 401.417 - 40
0.2%0.7
61.4 61.0 57.1 0 1 0.7 0 3
23.7 28.8 30.5 1.5 0.6 1.1
11.8 16.9 19.9 2.8 1.6 2.3
43.7 56.1 61.8 1.9 1.0 1.5
2.3 2.5 2.6 0.7 0.4 0.5
176.0 204.9 211.0 1.2 0.3 0.8

< >
( : TOE
17 30 40 17 ~(%)
)
30 30 ~
87.4 107.1 113.3 401.617 -0.6
40 1.1
22.2 21.9 21.9 0 1 0.01 0 1
17.6 22.1 23.9 1.8 0.8 1.3
6.4 7.6 8.0 1.4 0.5 1.0
42.5 46.2 43.8 0.6 0 5 0.1
176.0 204.9 211.0 1.2 0.3 0.8
2.

: (17)

< ( )>
( : TOE)

17 30 35 40 17 ~ 30 30(%) ~
176.0 204.9 209.0 211.0401.217 - 0.3
40 0.8
176.0 175.3 173.0 171.8 0.0 0.2% 0 1
- 14.4% 17.2% 18.6% - - -

) 40 18.6%

27

( ) 40 17 38%
* / (toe) :(17) 0 113 0 082(30)
(40)0 070
()8.1%p 5.3%p 2.6%p

) BAU 15%

*
70%( 16 )

()
, BAU 25.4%

BAU 18.8%

(),
(

(EERS) BAU 22.6% 18.6%


< >

)
5 . 7 % p,

( p 8.4% 3 . 7 % p,

2.1
0.5% p

),

()

( (

BAU

) 31.1%

(
20%
() bau

) BAU 14.6%

* ( ) ( )

bau 19.9%

()
BAU 19.6%

BAU 39.1%
()
< ( )>
( : TOE )
(%)
17 30 40 17 ~ 30 30 ~
176.0 204.9 211.0 401.217 -0.3
40 0.8
176.0 175.3 171.8 0.0 0.2% 0 1
- 14.4% 18.6% - - -
(%)
17 30 40 17 ~ 30 30 ~
87.4 94.7 96.3 40 17 -0.2 40
(49.6) (54.0) (56.1) 0.6 0.4
22.2 19.1 17.7
(12.6) (10.9) (10.3) 1 1 0.7 1 0
17.6 18.4 18.5
(10.0) (10.5) (10.8) 0.4 0.04 0.2
6.4 6.8 6.6
(3.6) (3.9) (3.8) 0.5 0.4 0.1
42.5 36.2 32.7
(24.2) (20.7) (19.0) 1 2 1 0 1 1
(%)
17 30 40 17 ~ 30 30 ~
33.2 32.3 31.2 40 0.2%
17 - 40
(18.9) (18.4) (18.2) 0 3 0 3
61.4 47.8 39.4
(34.9) (27.3) (22.9) 1 9 1 9 1 9
23.7 25.4 26.1
(13.5) (14.5) (15.2) 0.5 0.3 0.4
11.8 18.8 23.8
43 (10.7) (13.9) 3.7 2.4 3.1
7 49.0 49.7
(24.8)
(6. (28.0) (28.9) 0.9 0.1 0.6
7)
2.3 2.0 1.6
(1.3) (1.1) (0.9) 1 2 2.0 1 6
() (%)
38%( 17 ) 18.6%( 40,BAU )

~ 30 - 35%
2030

,,
-
1.

17 30 40
(TOE/ 100 0.150 ) 0.129 0.119
( ) (TOE
0.029/ 1000.021 ) 0.018
16.8 28.1 35.0

(
)

2 TOE (2950 ) 67.8%(17 )*


: (44%) (33%)
(28%) (13%)
(IE3)
( 18 . 10)

(15)

25% (17)*
(17):IE1( )94.4% IE2( )3.9% IE3(premium) 1.7%

(FEMS; energy management system)

* fems 2 ( 1 150
)
(

(58%) 20

* 03 Energy Star Portfolio Manager


Energy Star
led

* (%):(16)led 24 7 66 9 ( 18)43 . 9 led 42.2


(bems;building energy management

?
system) ,

* (BEMS) 7.8% (' 15)


* BEMS(11 225 )
11 ~ 13 6267 BEMS

17 /l ,
12

*(16) 17 /l ( 17)16 km / l(17 ; 17.8 km / l 6%)


* / , 17 (toe):( )6 . 29 ( )1 26
13 (13,42.0%

(1642.8%)

* ( b / d, iea 18):(17) 11.5%(40) 16.


3% (42%)
(toe / 100 ): ( 17)150 (40)0.5 119(21% )

(2 toe)

1% (20)

*
( 90%) )

* 30 (7 . 5kw ) 4.2% p( 17 87.


5% 30 91.7%)
18.3% (17) ,
( EERS )

* 1.35 (18 ) 30%


(
fems

10 000 ) fems ( 25)


10 TOE 157 57.7%
(17)* (4400 ) EMS (16)
10 TOE FEMS

(' 40 3000 )

( ) ( 22

10 ),

*
EMS
/ (toe) :( 17)0 . 029 (40)018(38% )

()

22 24 3000

000 * ,
* *

(
) ( 3 )

(eers)

) (30)

()

18 )
( *
*( ) :( )5 (22)3 (25)1
()

(~ 28)

*
(20) EERS (40 60%)
* top runner
* ( )- ( )- (
)- ( ) top runner
inititive (16)
(
)

(1) BEMS (' 25)


( / ):(17)16 . 8 164.
3 ( 40 ) 2
p
35.0% ( )

( / ) : ( 17 ) 5.19 (40) 7.5 ( 1.5 )

( ) () (22)

(40) ~
22

000 ,
()

) 40

(phev) 830;

290 ()

* ( , :(2 (22) 30 )20 (40


)40( , :(21) 10(30) (
40 )30
*
(
) (its)

ITS(Intelligent Transport System) (km):(18) 15743 (19)


16112 (23)17,112

( ) ( 0.1%)
( )LNG

19
2.

iot 4
(ess)

() (ess),

,
18 ES 4.9 gwh, 700

000 ,
( 19 2)
* ( 11 5) (12.6%)
( 18 . 12)

()

es s

,
ESS

( 20) ES S

ESS

ES S ES S

DR
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,
,

IoT
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DR
(
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, VPP
V2G * ,

V2H(home), V2D(device) V 2X *

*( ) V2H
(

) EERS ES CO (Energy Service COmpany)

eers 000 ,

es co ( )

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; esco

* (
) esco ,

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ems

* EMS ; ; ;

(20)
ems

( )

* ( )
20 EMS EMS

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AMI (Advanced Metering Infrastructure) ('
~ 20)
)
2250

ami
)
(

(120);

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( 20 ~)

* led (ie3) ,fems


,
3 000 * 18 , 19
3
000

< eers >

( ) (27 ) ( ) 25

( ), , 3 * ,
4%( 900 ) (m & v) , ,

( ) , * *
50 / mwh, 20 / mwh, 100 / mwh
3.

( )

000
000, lng
,

( )

* ,

)
(
)

(100kW
ami

* ,

000 ,
, (cpp critical peak pricing)

( )

000 ,

** (PPA;power *
purchase agreement)

AMI

*
( )

000
, ** (19)

000
(
,
)

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( ,
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( )

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lng

(
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( ):
4.

(
90
) 90 ,

* (bau) (%): (17)24 . 8 ( 30)27 . 4 (40 )29 . 3

* (% 15):( )18 . 1 ( )4 . 4, ( )2 5
*

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21 )

( )* ( ) ( )

, , ,

18 . 3 ~ 18 12 19 . 3 ~ 20 2 20 . 5 ~ 20 10
* , 122 (
150 )
() 2

1 2 ( ) : 55%(17 )

(
) ,

,
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,

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()

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*( : 3 ) (100 )
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19. )

20% 5% 10%

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LNG

(-162) LNG

* LNG 30
,

, ( , ),

* LNG

) ,

lng

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6 -2
1.

2040 30 - 35%

(
) (17)

(17) (17 )

()

90

(% 90 17):( )17 46 ( )0 3.4

* (17%):( )7.6
( )25.0 (OECD) 26
(

) ,

( ) 00

* (%):( 11)3 . 3 (13)3 . 9 ( 15)


6.6 (17)7 6
40 30 - 35%
< TF >

(
( 18 . 11) 40

)
25 ~ 40%;

25%: (IEA)
40%: 40
2. (

tf) 40

; 30%

, 35%

* 30%: OECD ( 40 28.6%)


3020
* 35%:

tf

30% - 35%

-
2040

TF:

< >

< >
40 25% 30% 35% 40%
( 79gw
) 103gw 129gw 154gw
113 - 193GW + 42GW
30 45% 45 60%65 77%81 93%

< 30%
( ) 40 OECD ( )28.6%
3020 40
30% 31 ~ 40 (1%p)
2
( ) 40 30%
(18 ~ 40 3.75

3020

gw)

< 35% >

(ESS ) ()35%

< >

40 25% 30% 35% 40%


( 1.0%
) 4.4% 11.0% 21.5%
( )
,

* LNG ($/ ):( 12) 746 ( 14) 831 ( 16) 357 ( 18) 524

(
) 86
3
,
LNG ( 18)
* LNG ( 18, ): ( ) 88.7, ( ) 54.1, ( ) 44.0, ( ) 22.3

(49%), (21%), (20%)

(
)
,
*

* LNG , LNG , LNG

( ()

(17164 )

(891 18) (3200


18 )

)(19.1)
,

40 526
()

) 78

24 5 1
17 27%

87 - 53%

* (%):( 1 (87)53 . 97)34 . 3 ( 07)35 . 5 (17)26 . 8

(9

),

* ( 18 . 12): (90.3%) (77.3%) (69.9%)


hanul (78.3%)

-
;

( ):* ( 05)32 617 (10)40 1814


(17)49 284

lng

* *

(
9 )

:
(); ,

,
( )
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000 ,
40
(iea 18 )

40 (world energy outlook 2018, iea)

- ,

: 17 17 8 b/d 40 23 3 b / d(31%) : 17 11 5 b/d 40 16.3%


b / d(42%) : 17 41 2 b/d 40 44 . 9 b / d (9%)
, *

( )
, 80%

* 17 ( ):50 4%
* ( ):(13) 11)927 (915 ( 15)1 026 (17)1 118 *
(%):( 11)87 1 (13)86 . 0 , ( 15)82 . 3 (17)81 7

17 000
,

36%

11% lpg 53%

( ) ,

,
( 18 . 7 )

2030 >

( ) 30 536 1.0
(bau 37% 15 22.3%)
574 000 300 *
* 34.1% , ,
,2020 (ndc)
38.3
;
( )192 . 7
( 34 1 ) ( : CO 2e)
30 ( )
333.2 192.7 140.5 (42.2%)

000( )
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20 ndc
2.

()

17 94%
fta
000
,

* (%):( 11)87 1 (13)86 . 0 ( 15)82 . 3 (17)81 .


7* (%):(16)76 65( 17) (18)
61
(96 000 b (91 , )

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< >
06 000
09 000

( ) ) (inter -
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(- 13 . 11)
16 000 ( - 15- . 6)
17 000 (17.4%) ,
(

)
000 08

,
,

* (%): ( 12)168 (18)2 287 ( 12)170


(18) * (51 ):(12) ( 15)10 (17)6

000 trading, ,
(,

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r&d

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(18.7%)

(19)

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LNG

* lng ( ) ( )jera( )cnooc mou(17.3%)


,

lng

(png)

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( 17 . 11), ( 18 . 12)

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( 19)
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(PS A)
()

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(' 19 - ' 21):

(22)

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()

(iaea)

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( **

* 40 500 ( 7
)
** (%):( 14)8 . 0 (15)8 8 10 4(16)(17) 12 2

:(14)3.5% (17)17.3%( 415MW ) :(14)32.4%


*(17)51.3%(
* 398MW
(17 14 )
%): (1 7 1 8), (4 . 8 4 7)
(1 7 2 2)
,

* (twh):( 14) 5.5%(15)7 . 9 6 7(16)(17) 6 4

* 19.1% 12.2 gw(56657 ) 6.


23 gw, 51.0%
()

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( )

(18.8%)

,,

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lng

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1 . 4gw * (18): ( )55% 86%( , )
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,m&a

* 17 (GW): Vestas(92) Si emens(84) GE(64)


Siemens: Gamesa( )(17.4)GE: Alstom( )(15.11)

) , ,

* :( )0 16 $ / w,( )0 14 $ / w * :( )0.29 / w,
( )0 27 $ / w
(

* (17): ( )19 gw,( )7 . 0gw,( )6 . 6gw,( )114mw


( )3MW ( 8MW)
;

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REC

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(rec

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:
FIT
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22
( )

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000 ,
(~ 21 3 600)

* ( 20)233 (25)4 604 (30)19 077 (


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15 ( 17 5% )- 7%)
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15 b/d** (17):( )100 4 % > (eu) 87 ( )73%(
82%)

* Sinopec (+160 b/d) (+32 b/d) NIOC(+


31 b/d)
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120

1 31,23

586km

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(31 )5 376km
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lpg ( ): (13)516 ( 15)593 (17)873
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(19)
(~ 23)
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(20)
REC ( 20
22 (wco ) (19)
(19)
(20)
(19)
(19)
r&d (19)
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