能源计划翻译
能源计划翻译
能源计划翻译
i. 1
ii . 8
1. 9
2. 17
iii . 22
1. 23
2. 26
iv . 29
1 31
32
1.
2. 37
3. 41
4. 44
6 2 48
1. 49
2. ; 56
3. 62
, 3 66
1. 67
2. 73
3. 76
viii 4 78
1. 79
2. ; 83
3. 87
4. 89
5. 92
ix 96
1. 97
2. 101
3. 103
, 105
110
1.
41
20 5
*(1 ) 08 ~ 30 ( ) 14 ~ 35 ( ) 19 ~ 40
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
* :( ) (
/ ),
(5 )
2. (' 14 )
1.
(bau):
0.9% 35 254.1 TOE (11,205.9 TOE)
: 35 BAU 13%
/
35 15%
,ict
35 15%
,
, ,
,
11%(1 )
,
,
( 15 ~)
2.
()
* ICT
3.
:
( )
*
* (' 14)
()
()
*
* (40 )
(500 )
()
* **
* ( 15.7) (
16.6 ) * (pm2.5 ):(16)3.07 (17)2.70 (18)2.
29
() -,
- ,
()
lng ,
lng
:
; ;
,,
( ) 15 (15)
:
()
1.
( )17 - 40 25%
,,
(
)
( ) 40 1.6% 30
1
2
(
()
,(,)
)
(;
, oecd
1 45%
) 40
, 40
1 17% (41%)
< >
( :mtoe, %)
00 17 25 40 ( 17 40)
3 665(37%)4 435(32%)4 0.4%
27543(31%)
071(21%)
4 894 107 (22%)3 4
(28%) 1.6%
2 (23%)
539 308(23%)436
3 (25%)
3 750(27%) 0.1%
675 688
(7%) (5%)
768(24%)3 809 (22%)805 (5%)971 (5%) 1.5%
662(7%) 1 334(10%)1 3 3.6%
855
10,027 0.01415,388
(12%)13,972 (17%) 17,715 1.0%
IEA Outlook 2018
),,
(
() 40
(1.0%) (4.4%)
17 00 ~
(
90
) 40 17 2
< >
( :MTOE %)
00 17 25 40 ( 17 40)
2,678 2,624 2,675 2,693 0.1%
- 2,271 2,148 2,185 2,149 0.0%
449 667 730 916 1.4%
- 184 285 315 391 1.4%
2,028 2,008 1,934 1,752 0.6%
- 1,693 1,621 1,512 1,274 1.0%
490 829 980 1,299 2.0%
- 103 131 133 138 0.2%
353 740 846 1,200 2.1%
742 911 943 1,019 0.5%
- 621 730 745 769 0.2%
3,012 5,789 6,803 8,201 1.5%
- 1,143 3,051 3,509 3,858 1.0%
- 441 898 1,238 1,880 3.3%
- 518 428 415 379 0.5%
- 383 664 826 1,110 2.3%
274 404 476 635 2.0%
IEA
10,027
Outlook 2018
13,972 15,388 17,715 1.0%
2020
(15.12) (16.11)21
* 20 (1997 ) 23 5
* 100%
167 (19.3)
17 40
45% (World Energy Outlook 2018, IEA)
*( ) (17.12)
**
(16)4 (
)170 ( )
( 1500 )
ai
( )E.ON : ESS
SolarCloud
*( )Sonnen ( ):
(Sonnen Community)
IT
: (09) :
(11 ~ 12)
,
50
3055%; 08 50
1990 60%22
50 ( 50%) 80%
80%
95%
30 0.530
13 ( ) 30 30
26%
( 13 22 -
) 24%( 20 -
) 22%
50 20 30
07 35
8 ( 30% 13
0%( 199 1 (14GW)
0 ) 8%)
30 20% 30 35
30 40% 12 )
1990 50 50% 32% 50%
50 ( 75% 40%
7
5%
(Energiew
ende)
- 22
38
(19)
/ (%):(10)19 / 43 (17)35 / 39
-
08
90 - - 10
20 40% 10% 35% 20% -
22 - - - - 100%
30 55% 30% 65% - -
50 80 ~ 95%60% 80% 50% -
(11)
, (3e + s)
9 9( 19.1 ) , 41
(18) ,
(17)
~
(25)
(15)
(15)
25 50%( 17,
(17,17% 30,40%)
50% 18.11)
73%)
- 35 (
(18.6%)
, 000
* : 45 100%
2 2
* / / (%):(10)11 / 12 / 19 (17)17 / 30 / 20
2.
( 00 17)
()2.7%
* 80 - 00 7.2% ,
( )
2.7%
* 80 - 00 7.3% ,
( )
(000 )4.5%
*
()
:( )0.5 0.3( )( )0 1,( ) 0.6 0.5(
) (oecd)
() 0.7
1.3% (62.6%
(3.2% 164.3)
50.4%)
() 1
) 10
90 11.0% )
< >
( ) (3.2%
164.3 2.7%)
(1.9%) (0.4%)( )
), (
,
(2.9%); (2.2%)
(2.4% )
)
(1.2% ),
(,,)
- *
(15%):( )48.8 (OECD )
29.5
(
) 14
< >
* (pm2.5) ( ):(16)92 (18) 17)146 (158
00 10
25%
(% ):(90)11.8 (' 00)17.0 (15)24.6 *
( ) : 55%(' 17 )
OECD 36 33
ESS
* (13)
< >
2017 :
(17.10)
30 20%
3020 (17.12)
31
8 ( 17 . 12)
2018 :
( 18.6)
4
( 22 6 ),
( 18
176)
( 18 5)
2019 :
(19.1)
,
(19)
1.
1.
0.1%
),
( 31
1 0.6%
* (' 15)
(' 16.12)
~
( 17 40 . 2.0%
( )
(17)
< >
( : 10
17 30 40 ) (%)
30.6 33.0 32.5 0.26
452.2 585.4 656.8 1.64
104.3 128.3 140.0 1.29
- 280.3 375.7 430.4 1.88
SOC( ) 100.2 117.9 123.0 0.90
827.0 1191.8 1393.2 2.29
2. (BAU ' 17 ' 40)
(BAU)
( )
*
0.6%
*
*
0.8%
*
1.1%
< >
(%)
17 30 40
17 ~ 30 30 ~
40 17 - 40
( toe) 244.1 281.1 279.9 1.1 0.04 0.6
(TOE/ 0.113
) 0.096 0.087 1 2 1 1 1 1
< >
( : TOE
17 30 )30 30 ~
40 0.917 ~(%)
86.0 97.1 85.3 40 17 -140 3 0 0
62.9 61.8 57.8 0 1 0.7 0.4
47.2 58.7 71.2 1.7 2.0 1.8
1.5 1.8 2.1 1.6 1.2 1.5
31.6 29.8 24.0 0.4 2 1 1 2
15.0 31.8 39.4 6.0 2.2 4.3
244.1 281.1 279.9 1.1 0.04 0.6
< >
( : TOE
30 40 17 ~ )30 30 (%)~
17
33.2 39.7 39.0 401.417 - 40
0.2%0.7
61.4 61.0 57.1 0 1 0.7 0 3
23.7 28.8 30.5 1.5 0.6 1.1
11.8 16.9 19.9 2.8 1.6 2.3
43.7 56.1 61.8 1.9 1.0 1.5
2.3 2.5 2.6 0.7 0.4 0.5
176.0 204.9 211.0 1.2 0.3 0.8
< >
( : TOE
17 30 40 17 ~(%)
)
30 30 ~
87.4 107.1 113.3 401.617 -0.6
40 1.1
22.2 21.9 21.9 0 1 0.01 0 1
17.6 22.1 23.9 1.8 0.8 1.3
6.4 7.6 8.0 1.4 0.5 1.0
42.5 46.2 43.8 0.6 0 5 0.1
176.0 204.9 211.0 1.2 0.3 0.8
2.
: (17)
< ( )>
( : TOE)
17 30 35 40 17 ~ 30 30(%) ~
176.0 204.9 209.0 211.0401.217 - 0.3
40 0.8
176.0 175.3 173.0 171.8 0.0 0.2% 0 1
- 14.4% 17.2% 18.6% - - -
) 40 18.6%
27
( ) 40 17 38%
* / (toe) :(17) 0 113 0 082(30)
(40)0 070
()8.1%p 5.3%p 2.6%p
) BAU 15%
*
70%( 16 )
()
, BAU 25.4%
BAU 18.8%
(),
(
)
5 . 7 % p,
( p 8.4% 3 . 7 % p,
2.1
0.5% p
),
()
( (
BAU
) 31.1%
(
20%
() bau
) BAU 14.6%
* ( ) ( )
bau 19.9%
()
BAU 19.6%
BAU 39.1%
()
< ( )>
( : TOE )
(%)
17 30 40 17 ~ 30 30 ~
176.0 204.9 211.0 401.217 -0.3
40 0.8
176.0 175.3 171.8 0.0 0.2% 0 1
- 14.4% 18.6% - - -
(%)
17 30 40 17 ~ 30 30 ~
87.4 94.7 96.3 40 17 -0.2 40
(49.6) (54.0) (56.1) 0.6 0.4
22.2 19.1 17.7
(12.6) (10.9) (10.3) 1 1 0.7 1 0
17.6 18.4 18.5
(10.0) (10.5) (10.8) 0.4 0.04 0.2
6.4 6.8 6.6
(3.6) (3.9) (3.8) 0.5 0.4 0.1
42.5 36.2 32.7
(24.2) (20.7) (19.0) 1 2 1 0 1 1
(%)
17 30 40 17 ~ 30 30 ~
33.2 32.3 31.2 40 0.2%
17 - 40
(18.9) (18.4) (18.2) 0 3 0 3
61.4 47.8 39.4
(34.9) (27.3) (22.9) 1 9 1 9 1 9
23.7 25.4 26.1
(13.5) (14.5) (15.2) 0.5 0.3 0.4
11.8 18.8 23.8
43 (10.7) (13.9) 3.7 2.4 3.1
7 49.0 49.7
(24.8)
(6. (28.0) (28.9) 0.9 0.1 0.6
7)
2.3 2.0 1.6
(1.3) (1.1) (0.9) 1 2 2.0 1 6
() (%)
38%( 17 ) 18.6%( 40,BAU )
~ 30 - 35%
2030
,,
-
1.
17 30 40
(TOE/ 100 0.150 ) 0.129 0.119
( ) (TOE
0.029/ 1000.021 ) 0.018
16.8 28.1 35.0
(
)
(15)
25% (17)*
(17):IE1( )94.4% IE2( )3.9% IE3(premium) 1.7%
* fems 2 ( 1 150
)
(
(58%) 20
?
system) ,
17 /l ,
12
(1642.8%)
(2 toe)
1% (20)
*
( 90%) )
(' 40 3000 )
( ) ( 22
10 ),
*
EMS
/ (toe) :( 17)0 . 029 (40)018(38% )
()
22 24 3000
000 * ,
* *
(
) ( 3 )
(eers)
) (30)
()
18 )
( *
*( ) :( )5 (22)3 (25)1
()
(~ 28)
*
(20) EERS (40 60%)
* top runner
* ( )- ( )- (
)- ( ) top runner
inititive (16)
(
)
( ) () (22)
(40) ~
22
000 ,
()
) 40
(phev) 830;
290 ()
( ) ( 0.1%)
( )LNG
19
2.
iot 4
(ess)
() (ess),
,
18 ES 4.9 gwh, 700
000 ,
( 19 2)
* ( 11 5) (12.6%)
( 18 . 12)
()
es s
,
ESS
( 20) ES S
ESS
ES S ES S
DR
)
DR
( 18) DR
,
,
IoT
,
DR
(
) V 2G (Vehicle to Grid)
, VPP
V2G * ,
V2H(home), V2D(device) V 2X *
*( ) V2H
(
eers 000 ,
es co ( )
es co
; esco
* (
) esco ,
; )
ems
* EMS ; ; ;
(20)
ems
( )
* ( )
20 EMS EMS
(
AMI (Advanced Metering Infrastructure) ('
~ 20)
)
2250
ami
)
(
(120);
000 , ,
( 20 ~)
( ) (27 ) ( ) 25
( ), , 3 * ,
4%( 900 ) (m & v) , ,
( ) , * *
50 / mwh, 20 / mwh, 100 / mwh
3.
( )
000
000, lng
,
( )
* ,
)
(
)
(100kW
ami
* ,
000 ,
, (cpp critical peak pricing)
( )
000 ,
** (PPA;power *
purchase agreement)
AMI
*
( )
000
, ** (19)
000
(
,
)
* 250300
( ,
) , ,
( )
000
lng
(
)
(
) , , lpg
( ):
4.
(
90
) 90 ,
* (% 15):( )18 . 1 ( )4 . 4, ( )2 5
*
* (GIS) (
21 )
( )* ( ) ( )
, , ,
18 . 3 ~ 18 12 19 . 3 ~ 20 2 20 . 5 ~ 20 10
* , 122 (
150 )
() 2
1 2 ( ) : 55%(17 )
(
) ,
,
(21)
000 -
, *
*
,
( ), ( ),
()
(
) (,
),
(
), ( ),
( ),
- ,
,-
*
( ) ,
*
)
4
*( : 3 ) (100 )
( : 4 ) (30 ~ 70 )
( ) ('
19. )
20% 5% 10%
(
) 21 , ,
*
LNG
(-162) LNG
* LNG 30
,
, ( , ),
* LNG
) ,
lng
*
6 -2
1.
2040 30 - 35%
(
) (17)
(17) (17 )
()
90
* (17%):( )7.6
( )25.0 (OECD) 26
(
) ,
( ) 00
(
( 18 . 11) 40
)
25 ~ 40%;
25%: (IEA)
40%: 40
2. (
tf) 40
; 30%
, 35%
tf
30% - 35%
-
2040
TF:
< >
< >
40 25% 30% 35% 40%
( 79gw
) 103gw 129gw 154gw
113 - 193GW + 42GW
30 45% 45 60%65 77%81 93%
< 30%
( ) 40 OECD ( )28.6%
3020 40
30% 31 ~ 40 (1%p)
2
( ) 40 30%
(18 ~ 40 3.75
3020
gw)
(ESS ) ()35%
< >
* LNG ($/ ):( 12) 746 ( 14) 831 ( 16) 357 ( 18) 524
(
) 86
3
,
LNG ( 18)
* LNG ( 18, ): ( ) 88.7, ( ) 54.1, ( ) 44.0, ( ) 22.3
(
)
,
*
( ()
(17164 )
)(19.1)
,
40 526
()
) 78
24 5 1
17 27%
87 - 53%
(9
),
-
;
lng
* *
(
9 )
:
(); ,
,
( )
, , ,
000 ,
40
(iea 18 )
- ,
( )
, 80%
* 17 ( ):50 4%
* ( ):(13) 11)927 (915 ( 15)1 026 (17)1 118 *
(%):( 11)87 1 (13)86 . 0 , ( 15)82 . 3 (17)81 7
17 000
,
36%
( ) ,
,
( 18 . 7 )
2030 >
( ) 30 536 1.0
(bau 37% 15 22.3%)
574 000 300 *
* 34.1% , ,
,2020 (ndc)
38.3
;
( )192 . 7
( 34 1 ) ( : CO 2e)
30 ( )
333.2 192.7 140.5 (42.2%)
000( )
( :34 . 1 )
, , 9
20 ndc
2.
()
17 94%
fta
000
,
000
< >
06 000
09 000
( ) ) (inter -
mou(' 09 6)
(- 13 . 11)
16 000 ( - 15- . 6)
17 000 (17.4%) ,
(
)
000 08
,
,
000 trading, ,
(,
( )
000 ***
,
** ( 0.5%)* 3%
fta ,
( )
000 ,
,* (17):
83.3%,hh 4.2%, 12.5%
000
, (
, )
(19)
, )
,
(
,
, -
(
)
000 ,
* ,
,
-
r&d
()
*
*
)
( , ,
,000, ,-
,
(
tf
(18.7%)
(19)
* (6 ) (3 )
( )
(lng)
lng
LNG
lng
(png)
) ( ) -(
, )
~
(20);
(
--
( *
-- )- 22 ,
**
* **
( , -
) ,
-
(19)
, *
* , ,
(
) ,
( 000 )
*
) , ess ,
* ) - ess ( 18 . 10)
000
)
,
) ,
* 05 ( / observer)
, 15
(
)
* (' 19 ~)
3.
,
, ,
( ) ;
* *
** (
(0.2 0.3 ) (7.5 10 ) )
()
( 17 . 11), ( 18 . 12)
,
(
) ,
(
)
()
* (19)
()
) (1 / 2 1 /)
) ,
23 *
;
(
) ,
* 5 (~ 19. )
13 ( 19. )
* ( 52 )
( )
,
(19)
, ,
lp (20~ 24) ( 19.)
LP
< >
(CO )
lpg
( )
23
` 23
(
- 270
6000 ) )
- - - - -
5
ES S
ESS ESS
( 19)
PCS) (
(
(PS A)
()
(~ 21)
( 16 ~ 19):
(22)
)
(
()
(iaea)
* **
**
-3
1.
( **
* 40 500 ( 7
)
** (%):( 14)8 . 0 (15)8 8 10 4(16)(17) 12 2
(),,
( )
(18.8%)
,,
( )
( )
* :100MW(18 )
*
:(22)1GW (40)8GW
(
;
;
) ,
*
(
) ,
,
*
lng
( )
(
*
) ,
**
) ,
*( )
REC *
* REC (20 )
(
*
(
) , es s, v2g
* ,
,000 ,
, 000
,
( ,
(,
,)
,, 000
, (p2x)
) *
mvdc
, , ess) ( , ,
it)
*
, ac / dc
DC
**
,,)
MVDC 18 5.8 30 16
(Navi gant Research)
**( ) DC ; DC ;
DC
(6 3)
) (vpp)
(vpp)
( 19 - 22 ):
VPP
;
(
,
)
ict
,
s cada
* ESS
(
*( ) ( ) + (12 ) (2 )
r&d) , ,
nerc
(' 20)
2.
( )
()
(
)
, 000 *
,
ESTEEM
-
000
*( ) ,( )
s300 ) , s300
(
000
(rec)
000
(
)
, * ,000
*
000
( , )
,
000 ,
000 ,
* : ( ) ( ), 19
* :( ) ( )
000
( 20 ~)
(
,
*
000
,
3.
()
, ,
4
15 )
213
2,001
000 07
, ,
46
4,764
* 23% 26.4
,
( ) ,
000
,
000
,
000
,
(
)
,
( )
,
,
( )
000
(
)
( DB )
)
(
)
(
-4
1.
3020
( 17 . 12)
( )
,
,
)
000 , value
(
- (
, - cell - )
, )
,m&a
) , ,
* :( )0 16 $ / w,( )0 14 $ / w * :( )0.29 / w,
( )0 27 $ / w
(
)REC
REC
19 20
(rec
) rec ( ),
:
FIT
- 20
22
( )
( )
000 ,
(~ 21 3 600)
,
(19)
(
1%p 4 - 6%
000
) ks
,
(a / s)
( )
ict,
- , ict
(bapv)
**
( ,
)
,,
)
*
(19)
* RPS
(
100)
re
, *
re 100
* 100%
(r&d)
(19)
) 22 (23%) , 10%
, , *
,()
000 , blade ,
) 22 (
, , )
*
(= )
000
(
) ),
(1 000)
(2 570
(1500)
* (
:
* (100 300 )
m&a, Scale-up
(1 000)
* (19 1300 )
)
(
,
* ( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( )
( 1%p ),
10%),
* ( )
2.
< >
(97%)
( )
) mobility
-(
, ,
( , ) , ,
-
)
000 ,
,
,
mobility
( ,000 275
,
, ,
) 40 *
100%
*
000
( )
( 40 ,
4 )
000 )
, ( 40
8(
) ( 40,3
(
) ,
)
000 ,
,,lpg cng
* spc ,
*
100% ( 408gw)
*
(40 gw )) ,
** *
( )
( ), ()
30
(co2 free)
000 (
()
) 5
( 000)
) ,
(
* ( )
;
( )
( ) () ,
(:)
) r&d,
( ) ,
( )
(19)
(
) ,,
p2g, ,
( ) , ,
3.
)4 ,
, ,
( ) ( )
112 5804( 14 (8893)
48 532( 35%) 1%)
( ) 2,474 43,210( 12 - 16
15 ( 17 5% )- 7%)
981 ( 5.6%)
* GHP 77.4%(17 12 )
(
) (track record)
, fems bems
~
(23)
< >
( )
(IE4 92.4%
( 7.5 ( ) 75%) 5G
+
(~ 22) ICT
(
) (living salim) , (
**( ) *(
) (25,1 )
(
) ,
~
(26)
< >
V2G
(20)
) EMS (22)
4.
(22.5%)
(60)
000
(
) ,
000 20
(22.5%)
,
* 80%,
( 60 )
;
17 30% ( 15)
(
)
) *
, ,
*
-
,
,
) ( 19 ~ 30,1 7)
( 18 11 ~)
()
(
000
( 18 11 ~),
)
( 22 ~),
( 19.3% ~)
( )
000
) (19.4%);
, ( ) ( )
( )
( ) (track - record) , , 3
( ) ,
(19) ,
r&d(19.5%)
r&d
,
5.
() * *
,
)
()
(18.7% 466
* ( ) (70% ~ 80%)
~
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