BLUEPRINT

TOPIC SECTION A SECTION B

BINOMIAL EXPANSION ITEM 5 (6) ITEM 12A,BI (4)
EXPONENTIAL AND
LOGARITHMIC FUNCITONS
DIFFERENTIATION ITEM 6A (2)
APPLICATIONS OF ITEM 6B (4) ITEM 12 BII,III,IV (9)
DIFFERENTIATION
INTEGRATION ITEM 7A (3)
ITEM 8 (7)
APPLICATIONS OF ITEM 7B (3) ITEM 11 (12)
INTEGRATION
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY ITEM 1 (6)
AND BAYES’ THEOREM ITEM 3 (6)
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION, ITEM 2 (6)
EXPECTATION AND VARIANCE
THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION ITEM 9 (12)
AND THE POISSON
DISTRIBUTION
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION ITEM 4A (2) ITEM 10 (13)
SAMPLING DISTRIBUTION AND ITEM 4B,C (5)
POINT ESTIMATES
TOTAL 50 50

1
SUGGESTED MARKING SCHEME
1. (a) P( A') P( B' | A') = P( B') P( A' | B')
P( A')  (1 − 0.4) = P( B') 1.8P( B) 1M
P( A') = 3P( B) P( B') 1
ALTERNATIVE
P ( B  A ')
P ( B | A ') = = 0.4
P ( A ')
P ( B  A ') = 0.4P ( A ')
P ( A ' B ')
P ( A' | B') = = 1.8P ( B )
P ( B ')
P ( A ' B ') = 1.8P ( B ) P ( B ')
P ( A ') = P ( A ' B ) + P ( A ' B ')
P ( A ') = 0.4P ( A ') + 1.8P ( B ) P ( B ') 1M
0.6P ( A ') = 1.8P ( B ) P ( B ')

P ( A' ) = 3P ( B ) P ( B ' ) 1
(b) P( A'  B ') = P( A') + P( B') − P( A'  B ')
1.288 − P( B) = 3P( B) P( B') + P( B') − P( B')  1.8 P( B) 1M
1.288 − 1 = 1.2 P( B) P( B')
0.24 = P( B)[1 − P( B)]
[ P( B)]2 − P( B) + 0.24 = 0
[ P( B) − 0.6][ P( B) − 0.4] = 0
P( B) = 0.6 or 0.4
P( A') = 3P( B) P( B')
= 3  0.6  (1 − 0.6)
= 0.72 1A

(c) P ( A  B ) = P ( B ) − P ( B  A ')
P ( A  B ) = P ( B ) − 0.4P ( A ') 1M
If P ( B ) = 0.6 , then
P ( A  B ) = 0.6 − 0.4 ( 0.72) = 0.312  0
If P ( B ) = 0.4 , then
P ( A  B ) = 0.4 − 0.4 ( 0.72) = 0.112  0
A and B are not mutually exclusive. 1 f.t.

(6)

2
2. (a) 0.05 + 0.1 + k 2 + 0.1 + k = 1
k 2 + k − 0.75 = 0
k = 0.5 or −1.5 (rejected) 1A

(b) The probability distribution of X is as follows.

x 1 3 5 6 m
P(X = x) 0.05 0.1 0.25 0.1 0.5

E(X ) = 1 0.05 + 3  0.1 + 5  0.25 + 6  0.1 + m  0.5 1M

= 0.5m + 2.2
( )
E X2

= 1( 0.05) + 9 ( 0.1) + 25 ( 0.25) + 36 ( 0.1) + m2 ( 0.5)

= 10.8 + 0.5m 2
Var ( X )

( )
= E X 2 − E( X )
2

= 10.8 + 0.5m2 − ( 0.5m + 2.2)

2
1M
= 0.25m 2 − 2.2m + 5.96 1A
E(5 X + 2m) = Var(5 X + 2m)

5E( X ) + 2m = 52 Var( X ) 1M

5(0.5m + 2.2) + 2m = 52 (0.25m 2 − 2.2m + 5.96)

6.25m 2 − 59.5m + 138 = 0
25m 2 − 238m + 552 = 0
138
m= or m = 4 1A
25
(6)

3
3. (a) Let X be the event that an order payment to the shop is processed by System A, and Y be
the event that the transaction of an order payment is completed within 5 seconds.
Required probability = P(Y )

= P( X ) P(Y | X ) + P( X ') P(Y | X ')

= 0.9  0.6 + (1 − 0.9)  0.3 1M

= 0.57 1A

(b) Required probability = P( X | Y )

P( X ) P(Y | X )
=
P(Y )

0.9  0.6
= 1M
0.57
 0.947368421

= 0.9474 (cor. to 4 d.p.) 1A

P( X ') P(Y ' | X ')

(c) P( X ' | Y ') =
P(Y ')

(1 − 0.9)  (1 − 0.3)
= 1M
1 − 0.57
 0.162790697
 0.2

 Given that the transaction of a certain order payment to the shop is not completed
within 5 seconds, the probability for the order payment to be processed by System B
is less than 0.2. 1A

(6)

4
4. (a) Let T seconds be the time-record of Brian to swim 50 m, then T ~ N(48,  2 ) .
P(45  T  51) = 0.769 8
 45 − 48 51 − 48  1M
P Z  = 0.769 8
   
 3 3
P  −  Z   = 0.769 8
  
 3
P  0  Z   = 0.384 9
 
3
 = 1.20

 = 2.5 1A
 2.5 
2
(b) Let X seconds be the mean of the sample of 16 time-records, then X ~ N  48, .
 16 
Required probability = P( X  48.9)
 48.9 − 48 
= P Z  1M
2.5 
 
 16 
= P(Z  1.44)
= 0.5 − 0.425 1
= 0.074 9 1A
(c) Let Y seconds be the mean of the sample of n time-records, then
 2.52 
Y ~ N  48, .
 n 
P (Y  47.4)  0.95
 47.4 − 48  1M
P Z   0.95
2.5 
 
 n 
 47.4 − 48 
P  Z  0   0.45
2.5
 
 n 
 47.4 − 48 
P0  Z  −  0.45
2.5 
 
 n 
 47.4 − 48 1M
−  1.645
2.5
n
1.645
n
47.4 − 48
−
2.5
n  46.979 600 69
 The least value of n is 47. 1A
(7)

5
 (−12 x) 2
5. (a) e −12 x = 1 + (−12 x) + + 1M
2!
= 1 − 12 x + 72 x 2 + 1A

(b) (1 + kx)8 = 1 + C18 (kx) + C28 (kx)2 + 1M

= 1 + 8kx + 28k x +
2 2

−12 x
e (1 + kx)8 = (1 − 12 x + 72 x 2 + )(1 + 8kx + 28k 2 x 2 + )
 The sum of the coefficients of x and x 2 in the expansion is 0.
 [(1)(8k ) + (−12)(1)] + [(1)(28k 2 ) + (−12)(8k ) + 72(1)] = 0 1M + 1M
28k − 88k + 60 = 0
2

7k 2 − 22k + 15 = 0
(7k − 15)(k − 1) = 0
15
k= or 1 1A
7
(6)

6
 dy
−1
 −1 −3

6. (a) = (3x 2 + 1) 2 (2) + (2 x)  (3 x 2 + 1) 2 (6 x)  1M
dx 2 
−3
= 2(3x2 + 1) 2 [(3x2 + 1) − 3x2 ]
2
= 3
1A
(3 x 2 + 1) 2

ALTERNATIVE
−1
1
dy
3x 2 + 1 ( 2 ) − 2 x   3x 2 + 1
2
( ) 2
(6x )
= 1M
dx 3x 2 + 1

=
(
2 3x 2 + 1 − 6 x 2 )
3

( 3x 2 + 1 ) 2

2
= 3
1A
(3 x 2
+ 1) 2

(b) Let ( x1 , y1 ) be the coordinates of the point of contact of C and the tangent.
The slope of straight line joining ( x1 , y1 ) and (−3, 0) is the same as the slope of tangent at ( x1 , y1 ).
y1 − 0
Slope of the line joining ( x1 , y1 ) and (−3, 0) =
x1 − (−3)
2 x1
3x12 + 1
=
x1 + 3
2 x1
= 1
( x1 + 3)(3 x12 + 1) 2

2 x1 2
 1
= 3
1M + 1M
( x1 + 3)(3x12 + 1) 2 (3x12 + 1) 2
x1 (3x12 + 1) = x1 + 3
3x13 + x1 = x1 + 3
x13 = 1
x1 = 1 1A
dy 2
= 3
dx x =1
[3(1) 2
+ 1] 2
1
=
4
1
 The slope of the tangent is . 1A
4
(6)

7
8
 du 1
7. (a) Let u = ln( x + 3) , then = . 1M
dx x + 3
1 − 4ln( x + 3)
 g( x)dx = x+3
dx

=  (1 − 4u )du 1M

= u − 2u 2 + Constant
= ln( x + 3) − 2[ln( x + 3)]2 + Constant 1A

(b) (i) When y = 0 ,

1 − 4ln( x + 3)
=0
x+3
1 − 4ln( x + 3) = 0
1
ln( x + 3) =
4
1
x = e4 − 3 1A
1
(ii) Since e4 − 3  0 , the required area is bounded by the x-axis and the y-axis with no crossing of x-axis in
between.
6
1 − 4ln( x + 3)
Required area = − 
0
x+3
dx 1M

6
= −[ln( x + 3) − 2[ln( x + 3)]2 
0

= −{[ln 9 − 2(ln 9) ] − [ln 3 − 2(ln 3) 2 ]}

2

= −2ln 3 + 2(2ln 3)2 + ln 3 − 2(ln 3) 2

= 6(ln 3)2 − ln 3 1A
(6)

9
 d
8. (a) [(2 x2 + 3x)e−2 x ] = (2 x2 + 3x)[e−2 x (−2)] + e−2 x (4 x + 3) 1M
dx
= e−2 x [−2(2 x 2 + 3x) + (4 x + 3)]
= e−2 x (−4 x2 − 2 x + 3)

 
(2 x2 + 3x)e−2 x = e−2 x (−4 x2 − 2 x + 3)dx

 
= −2 (2 x2 + x)e−2 x dx + 3 e−2 x dx

−1 2 3 −2 x
 (2x + x)e−2 x dx = (2 x + 3x)e−2 x + 
2
e dx 1M
2 2
−1 3
= (2 x 2 + 3x)e−2 x − e−2 x + Constant
2 4
−1
= (4 x2 + 6 x + 3)e−2 x + Constant 1A
4
(b) f ( x) = (4 x 2 + 2 x + 1)e−2 x
f '( x) = (4 x2 + 2 x + 1)[e−2 x (−2)] + e−2 x (8 x + 2)
= e−2 x [−2(4 x2 + 2 x + 1) + (8 x + 2)]
= e−2 x (−8x 2 + 4 x)
= −4 x(2 x − 1)e−2 x 1A
When f '( x) = 0 ,
−4 x(2 x − 1)e−2 x = 0
1
x = 0 or
2
1
  = ,  =0 1A
2
1

 f ( x)dx =  0
2 (4 x 2 + 2 x + 1)e−2 x dx
1
2 1


= 2 (2 x 2 + x)e −2 x dx +
0
0
2 e −2 x dx

1 1
 1 2  1 2
= 2  − (4 x 2 + 6 x + 3)e−2 x  +  − e−2 x  1M
 4 0  2 0

 1 1  1   −2   1     1 −2    1
  
2 1 1
= 2 −  4   + 6   + 3 e  2  −  − [4(0) 2 + 6(0) + 3]e−2(0)  +   − e  2   − − e−2(0)  
    2   4   2   2 
 4 2
 
 7 3  1 1
= 2  − e −1 +  +  − e −1 + 
 4 4  2 2
= 2 − 4e −1 1A
(7)

10
9. (a) Let X be the number of rental orders received by the company on a Sunday, then X ~ Po(3) .

Required probability = P( X  3)

 e−3 31 e−3 32 
= 1 −  e−3 + +  1M
 1! 2! 

 0.576809918

= 0.576 8 (cor. to 4 d.p.) 1A

(2)
(b) Let Y be the number of good business days out of 6 Sundays, then Y ~ B(6, p) where p = P( X  3) .

Required probability (4 good + 2 not good, 5 good + 1 not good, 6 good + 0 not good)
= P(Y  4)

 C46 (0.576809918)4 (0.423190081)2 + C56 (0.576809918)5 (0.423190081) + (0.576809918)6

1M + 1M
 0.496321893

= 0.4963 (cor. to 4 d.p.) 1A

(3)
(c) (i) Let N be the number of participants in a party room rented out.
Note that each room must have at least 2 participants, and each rental order is exactly one room.
To have 6 participants, it must be exactly 3 rooms and 2 participants in each room.

Required probability = P( X = 3)  [ P( N = 2)]3

e −3 33
=  (0.25)3 1M
3!
 0.003500653

= 0.0035 (cor. to 4 d.p.) 1A

(ii) 1 room with 6 participants + 2 rooms with 2 and 4 each (and 4 and 2), or 3 and 3 each + answer of cii

Required probability

= P( X = 1)  P( N = 6) + P( X = 2)  {C12 [ P( N = 2)][ P( N = 4)] + [ P( N = 3)]2 }

+ P( X = 3)  [ P( N = 2)]3

e −3 31 e −3 32
  0.1 +  [C12 (0.25)(0.2) + (0.25) 2 ] + 0.003500653 1M
1! 2!
 0.054843567
= 0.0548 (cor. to 4 d.p.) 1A

(iii) 2 small rooms with 3 in each room + 3 smalls with 2 in each room

P(There are a total of 6 participants in the party rooms rented out 

only small party rooms are rented out)
11
= P( X = 2)  [ P( N = 3)]2 + P( X = 3)  [ P( N = 2)]3

e −3 32
  0.252 + 0.003500653 1M
2!
 0.017503266

0.017503266
 Required probability  1M
0.054843567
 0.319148935

= 0.3191 (cor. to 4 d.p.) 1A

(7)

12
10. (a) Let X g and Y g be the weights of a Farm A orange and a Farm B orange in the supermarket respectively, then
X ~ N(153.2, 4.82 ) and Y ~ N(150, 82 ) .

 143.6 − 153.2 
P( X  143.6) = P  Z   1M
 4.8 
= P ( Z  −2)
= 0.5 − 0.477 2
= 0.022 8

 143.6 − 150 
P(Y  143.6) = P  Z  
 8 
= P( Z  −0.8)
= 0.5 − 0.288 1
= 0.211 9

 There are fewer small oranges from Farm A available in the supermarket. 1A

(2)
(b) P( X  k )  0.2
 k − 153.2 
P Z    0.2 1M
 4.8 
 k − 153.2 
P0  Z    0.3
 4.8 

k − 153.2
  0.85 1M
4.8
k  157.28 1A

P (Y  k )  0.2
 k − 150 
P Z    0.2
 8 
 k − 150 
P0  Z    0.3
 8 

k − 150
  0.85
8
k  156.8

 k  157.28 and k  156.8

 The least value of k is 157.28. 1A

(4)

(c) (i) Note that same number of oranges from A and from B are available.
The probability of selecting a small B orange is

13
 0.5  P (Y  143.6)
= 0.5  0.2119
= 0.10595

The probability of selecting a medium B orange is

0.5  P(143.6  Y  158)

 143.6 − 150 158 − 150 
= 0.5  P  Z 
 8 8 
= 0.5  P(−0.8  Z  1)
= 0.5  (0.2881 + 0.3413)
= 0.3147

Required probability

= C18 (0.10595)(0.3147)7 1M

 0.000259100
= 0.0003 (cor. to 4 d.p.) 1A
(ii) The probability of selecting a small A orange is

0.5  P ( X  143.6)
= 0.5  0.0228
= 0.0114

The probability of selecting a medium A orange is

0.5  P(143.6  X  158)

 143.6 − 153.2 158 − 153.2 
= 0.5  P  Z 
 4.8 4.8 
= 0.5  P(−2  Z  1)
= 0.5  (0.477 2 + 0.341 3)
= 0.40925

Required probability (7 medium B + 1 small A, or 6 medium B + 1 medium A + 1 small B)

= C18 (0.0114)(0.3147)7 + C18 (0.10595)C17 (0.40925)(0.3147)6 1M + 1M

 0.002386499

= 0.0024 (cor. to 4 d.p.) 1A

(iii) The probability of selecting a small orange, must be from either A or B, which is
0.0114 + 0.10595
= 0.11735

The probability of selecting a medium orange, must be from either A or B, which is

0.40925 + 0.3147
= 0.72395

The numerator of the required answer is the sum of answers of ci and cii.
14
 0.000259100 + 0.002386499
 Required probability  1M
C18 (0.11735)(0.72395)7

 0.027039028

= 0.0270 (cor. to 4 d.p.) 1A

(7)

15
 2−0
11. (a) (i) t = = 0.5
4
0.5
1 = [ A(0) + 2 A(0.5) + 2 A(1) + 2 A(1.5) + A(2)] 1M
2
0.5
= [ln 4(0)2 + 12(0) + 15 + 2ln 4(0.5)2 + 12(0.5) + 15
2
+ 2ln 4(1)2 + 12(1) + 15 + 2ln 4(1.5)2 + 12(1.5) + 15
+ ln 4(2)2 + 12(2) + 15]
 3.405097742 1A
= 3.4051 (cor. to 4 d.p.)

(ii) A(t ) = ln 4t 2 + 12t + 15

1
= ln(4t 2 + 12t + 15)
2
1 8t + 12
A'(t ) =  2 1M
2 4t + 12t + 15
2(2t + 3)
= 2
4t + 12t + 15

ALTERNATIVE
−1
A'(t ) =
1 2 1
4t + 12t + 15 ( ) 2
(8t + 12 ) 1M
4t + 12t + 15 2
2

2(2t + 3)
= 2
4t + 12t + 15

A"(t ) = 2{(4t 2 + 12t + 15)−1 (2) + (2t + 3)[−(4t 2 + 12t + 15)−2 (8t + 12)]} 1M
= 4(4t 2 + 12t + 15)−2 [(4t 2 + 12t + 15) − 2(2t + 3)2 ]
4(−4t 2 − 12t − 3)
=
(4t 2 + 12t + 15) 2
−4(4t 2 + 12t + 3)
= 1A
(4t 2 + 12t + 15) 2
(5)

3 3
du 3 2 t
t
(b) (i) Let u = 1+ e2
, then = e . 1M
dt 2
When t = 0 , u = 2 ;
when t = 2 , u = 1 + e3 .
3
t
2 2 10e 2
0
B(t )dt = 
0 3
t
dt
1+ e2
 3 3t 
10  e2 
2
 2  dt
= 
0 3 3
t
(1 + e 2 )
2

16
 20 1+e3 −1
=
3 2  u du 1M

20
= [ln u ]12+e
3
1A
3
20
= [ln(1 + e3 ) − ln 2]
3
20 1 + e3
= ln 1A
3 2
= 15.7029 (cor. to 4 d.p.)

2
(ii)  = 
0
B(t )dt − 

20 1 + e3
 ln − 3.405 097 742
3 2
 12.29783673
= 12.2978 (cor. to 4 d.p.) 1A

(iii)  A"(t )  0 for 0  t  2

 1 is an under-estimate of , i.e.   3.405097742
 The estimate obtained in (b)(ii) is an over-estimate, i.e.   12.29783673


 12.29783673 1M

 3.405097742
 3.611595808
 3.7
 The claim is agreed. 1A
(7)

17
12. (a) 40
N=
1 +  tekt
N +  Nte kt = 40
40 − N
=  e kt 1M
Nt
 40 − N 
 = ln( e )
kt
ln 
 Nt 
 40 − N 
 ln   = ln  + kt 1A
 Nt 
(2)
(b) (i)  Slope of the graph = −0.2
 k = −0.2 1A
 The intercept on the horizontal axis of the graph is ln 243 .
 0 = ln  − 0.2ln 243
ln  = 0.2ln 243
= ln 3
  =3 1A

40
(ii) N =
1 + 3te−0.2t
dN
= 40[−(1 + 3te−0.2t )−2 ][3te−0.2t (−0.2) + 3e−0.2t ] 1M
dt
24e −0.2t (t − 5)
= 1A
(1 + 3te −0.2t ) 2
dN
When =0,
dt
24e −0.2t (t − 5)
=0
(1 + 3te −0.2t ) 2
t =5

t 0t 5 t =5 5  t  60
dN 1M
− 0 +
dt
 N attains its least value at t = 5 . 1M
40
Least value of N =
1 + 3(5)e−0.2(5)
 6.136671388
6
 It is impossible that there are 6 million bacteria in the solution during the
experiment. 1A

d2 N
(iii) = 24  {(1 + 3te−0.2t )−2 [e−0.2t (1) + (t − 5)(e−0.2t )(−0.2)]
dt 2
+ e−0.2t (t − 5)[−2(1 + 3te−0.2t )−3 ][3te−0.2t (−0.2) + 3e−0.2t ]} 1A
 0.2e−0.2t [−5 + (t − 5)] 1.2(e−0.2t )2 (t − 5)2 
= 24 − + 
 (1 + 3te−0.2t )2 (1 + 3te−0.2t )3 
18
 4.8e−0.2t (t − 10) 28.8(e −0.2t )2 (t − 5)2
=− + 1A
(1 + 3te −0.2t ) 2 (1 + 3te −0.2t )3

d2 N 4.8e −0.2(5) (5 − 10)

=− +0
dt 2 t =5 [1 + 3(5)e −0.2(5) ]2

ALTERNATIVE

( ) ( −0.2e ( t − 5) + e−0.2t ) − e−0.2t ( t − 5)( 2 ) (1 + 3te−0.2t ) (3) ( e−0.2t + t ( −0.2 ) e−0.2t )

2
d2 N 1 + 3te−0.2t −0.2t

= 24
dt 2 (1 + 3te )−0.2t 4

d2 N
= 24
(1 + 15e ) ( e )
−1 2 −1

dt 2 t =5 (1 + 15e ) −1 4

24e −1
=
(1 + 15e −1 ) 2

d2 N 24e −1
 The exact value of when t = T is . 1A
dt 2 (1 + 15e −1 ) 2

(iv) C = 2−0.01N
dC  dN 
= 2−0.01N (ln 2)  −0.01  1M
dt  dt 
dN
= −2−0.01N (0.01ln 2)
dt
dN
 2−0.01N  0 and  0 for 0  t  5
dt
dC
  0 for 0  t  5
dt
 C increases for 0  t  5 . 1A
(11)

19