February 27, 2012 Topics: oil markets, Iran, and a Congressional press release for the times we live

in Most of this weeks note deals with oil prices and Iran, but I did want to point out a trend that is illustrative of how things are going globally. One of the strongest aspects of the US recovery has been the rebound in business spending on equipment and software. As highlighted by our friends at Hamiltonian Associates, sales by Caterpillars dealer network are a proxy for global trends. Caterpillars US sales are leading the pack for the first time in a while, Asia is moderating, and Europe trails with a distinctly negative trend. We expect a recovery in US payrolls this year, and eventually, in labor incomes. The US recovery may be weak by historical standards, but expectations are pretty low (2.2% growth in 2012). We expect the US to exceed expectations, and for Europe ex-Germany to disappoint them. Absent a blow-up in Iran, this view seems like its on track.
US business spending on equipment and software
Billions, Real 2005 USD
1,200 1,100 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010

Caterpillar dealer reported machine sales

Percent change, YoY
80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Europe, Middle East & Africa Asia

North America

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Source: Bloomberg, Hamiltonian Associates.

Iranium enrichment: another hurdle for global markets to surmount The near-term fundamentals dont point to higher oil prices. Oil demand has been revised down a bit, particularly in the OECD, and non-OPEC supply growth is a little higher in 2012 than in recent years. After netting all the supply and demand factors, it looks like there will be a global oil inventory build in 2012 (see chart below), not something we would normally associate with rising oil prices. However, even before we get to Iran, there are other factors contributing to higher prices: a pick-up in global growth expectations for 2013 and beyond; the explosion of Central Bank balance sheets and associated reflation goals (see last weeks EoTM); and the possibility that Chinas will build strategic crude oil reserves to the IEA standard of 90 days from their current level of 14. Note as well that the inventory build is a small one, nowhere near 2002-2007 levels.
Global oil inventories to build (modestly) in 2012
Days of demand
60

Impact of rising energy prices on the US consumer

23% 21% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5%

55 50 45 40 35 2000

19% 17% 15% 13% 11% 9%

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Gasoline spending % of personal income through December

Source: IEA, ISI Energy Research.

1.5% 7% 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Source: US Department of Energy, BLS, BEA.

Gas prices as a % of hourly earnings through January

2.0%

Thats why Iran is a risk: a disruption would make oil markets even tighter, and drive gasoline prices up further. Even before the February spike, gasoline prices relative to earnings and income were starting to bite (2nd chart). The private sector can handle some gasoline price increases, but probably not much more than what weve seen already. The spread between retail and wholesale gasoline prices is low ($0.35, compared to a $0.35-$1.00 range), suggesting further retail increases may be in store. People like me now spend a lot of time on conference calls with geopolitical experts of different stripes. On one call, speakers raised the probability of military action from 30% to 50%. On another call, speakers mentioned that the US has run out of senior military advisors to send to Israel, all requesting that Israel not attack unilaterally, and believe Israel wont. A paper by Matt Kroenig in Foreign Affairs magazine entitled Time to Attack Iran; Why a Strike is the Least Bad Option

February 27, 2012 Topics: oil markets, Iran, and a Congressional press release for the times we live in resulted in a firestorm of criticism from multiple sides. With sanctions appearing to work (Irans inflation, currency collapse, fewer buyers of its oil and a potential ban on Iranian banks from the global SWIFT payments network), wont the US want to wait and see? Most of the US military establishment seems to take this view. The conjecture is endless. Here are a few points I found to be of greatest relevance as we sift through this: The US and Europe appear to take the Israeli attack threat seriously. Economic recoveries are just beginning to form in both regions, and there are elections coming up, so for politicians to ratchet up sanctions and drive up oil and gasoline prices, they must be very concerned that without tougher sanctions, the Israelis might act. Irans Fordow facility is key to understanding the debate about the effectiveness of military action, and why some are nervous that the window for action is closing. Fordow is estimated to be 80-90 meters below grade, and is suspected of being ready for uranium enrichment. The Iranians reportedly have ~80 kg of 20% enriched uranium (UF6), and need 25 kg more to convert it into enough uranium metal (UF4) for a nuclear bomb. The most powerful conventional weapon in the US arsenal is the Massive Ordnance Penetration device (MOP), a 30,000 pound bomb with 5,000 pounds of explosives. It travels at twice the speed of sound, and is designed to penetrate rock and concrete before detonating. However, it would probably take 4 of these weapons, dropped in succession by B-2 bombers in the same exact spot, to destroy Fordow1. Military strikes could quickly escalate to engulf the entire region. While the Israel-Iran and US-Iran dimensions are important to understand, so too are the Sunni-Shia issues in play. Any complicity by Sunni countries in conjunction with US action (airspace, attack plans and logistics, etc.) might be seen as acts of war by Iran. The Strait of Hormuz carries 20% of the worlds oil (17 million bpd). There are active and de-activated pipelines in Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the UAE that could divert around 5-6 mm bpd, and strategic petroleum reserves could be released. Even so, a military battle in the Strait could cause oil prices to rise $20-$30, according to EIA and GAO 2007 estimates.

To be fair to all the analysts, journalists and think tanks, there is no reason to expect greater foresight now than during the Cuban Missile Crisis, Iraq War or other military standoffs. This is a binary market risk that in our view justifies material consideration in portfolio allocations, and thats about all we know. Our 2012 Outlook section on this issue was entitled Learning to Live with a Nuclear Iran, and that may very well be where this ends up. As a reminder, since 2001, rising oil prices have coincided with a gradual exhaustion of conventional oil to meet marginal demand, sharp increases in operating and commodity input costs for oil companies, deeper exploratory and developmental wells, reliance on a shrinking number of deepwater fields, rising E&P spending by US oil majors to meet rising EM demand, etc. A simplified version of this dynamic appears below: as oil production rises to meet global demand, the sources for the marginal barrel become more expensive and more complicated. Without getting into the whole Peak Oil thing, I do think there is evidence that the marginal cost of oil will be a speed bump on growth in the years ahead, if oil production has to rise over 90 million barrels per day to support demand and the building of strategic reserves.
Global oil production and marginal source breakpoints
Million barrels per day
90 80 70 60 Other South America, Europe, Eurasia and Africa 50 Mexico 40 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 US and Canada UK North Sea

Next: synthetic fuels from coal, natural gas and biomass Canada Oil Sands Angola and Nigeria Deep Water US Gulf of Mexico Deep Water Brazil Deep Water

Source: BP, CERA (2008), Bloomberg. Note: Saudi Arabia covers the first 10 mmbpd.

Austin Long at Columbia University walked me through the geodynamics of the MOP and how many would be needed to penetrate the Fordow facility. His calculations are a function of soil hardness/density, the weapons mass and impact velocity, the shape of its cone, and the percentage of each penetration that collapses back in as spoil, blocking the hole created by previous weapons. The estimate of 4 MOPs is based on the assumption of a modest amount of gravel spoilage, and less dense soil. Higher soil density and gravel estimates could require 2-4 more bombs.

February 27, 2012 Topics: oil markets, Iran, and a Congressional press release for the times we live in Output from the Congressional Centrifuge In the midst of all the above, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi issued the following press release:
Independentreportsconfirmthatspeculatorsaredrivingupthecostofoil,hurtingconsumersandpotentially damagingtheeconomicrecovery.WallStreetprofiteering,notoilshortages,isthecauseofthepricespike.Infact,U.S. oilproductionisatitshighestlevelsince2003,andmillionsofacreshavebeenclearedforadditionaldevelopment. Weneedtotakestrongactiontoprotectconsumersfromthisspeculation.Unfortunately,Republicanshavechosento protecttheinterestsofWallStreetspeculatorsandoilcompaniesinsteadoftheinterestsofworkingAmericansby obstructingtheagencieswiththeresponsibilityofenforcingconsumerprotectionlaws.Theyhavealsorepeatedly opposedoureffortstoendbillionsofdollarsinoutdatedtaxpayersubsidiesforoilcompaniesenjoyingrecordprofits.

WesupporteffortsbytheObamaAdministrationtoexpanddomesticenergyresources,includingnaturalgasand renewablesourceslikewindandsolarthatcreatejobsinAmericaandwillendourdangerousdependenceonforeign energysupplies.Thiscanbeachievedbecausetoday,theUnitedStatescurrentlyhasmoreoilandgasrigsatworkthan therestoftheworldcombined,andimportsofforeignoilhavedecreased.

WecallontheRepublicanleadershiptoactonbehalfofAmericanconsumersandjoinoureffortstocrackdownon speculatorswhocaremoreabouttheirprofitsthanthepriceatthepumpevenifthesespikesharmtheAmerican consumerandoureconomy.

I am of course not going to comment directly on this, for many reasons, including not wanting to spend my days at Californias solar-powered detention facility in Chuckawalla Valley. However, for anyone interested in the specific points raised in this press release, I have included some charts on the unfortunately binding constraints of science and energy economics. Enjoy.
1. Some analysts project an additional 1-2 mm bpd in US crude production from shale oil and deepwater Gulf wells. How much of a dent has rising US production made on net US oil imports so far?
US net imports of crude oil
Million barrels per day
11 9 7 80% 5 70% 3 1 -1 1920 60% 50% 1980

2. Iran accounts for 3-4% of global oil exports. If Iranian exports were taken offline, OPEC utilization rates would approach 98%. What does this imply about how sensitive oil markets might be to Iran?
OPEC crude oil utilization rate
Percent
100% 90%

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

1986

1992

1998

2004

2010

Source: US Energy Information Administration.

Source: IEA, ISI Energy Research.

3. Are gasoline prices currently out of whack relative to crude oil prices, given the increase in the latter?
Brent oil vs. US average all grades retail gasoline
USD/barrel
150 125 100 75 50 25 0 1994

4. What impact might unlimited money printing and negative real interest rates have on investor appetite for real assets like oil/gold?
Debasement of cash and speculative oil contracts
Thousands, 3 month ma
300 250 200 150 100 50 12% 0 -50 1999 2001 2004 2007 2010 Source: Country sources, CFTC, J.P. Morgan Private Bank. 8%

USD/gallon
4.50

Percent of aggregate GDP

24% 20% 16%

US average all grades retail gasoline

4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50

Central bank balance sheets: Japan, EU, US, UK, Swiss Net WTI crude oil non-commercial contracts outstanding

Brent oil
1998 2002 2006 2010

1.00 0.50

Source: US Department of Energy, Bloomberg.

February 27, 2012 Topics: oil markets, Iran, and a Congressional press release for the times we live in
5. Now lets get to the interesting part. The press release implies that natural gas and renewable energy can reduce American dependence on foreign oil (end is the word used). This is an appealing proposition, particularly with Brent oil prices now 5 times higher than natural gas prices on a BTU basis. So, lets assume that the US wanted to cease all oil imports from Venezuela, Russia and the Persian Gulf. This would reduce oil imports by ~30%. If Americans still wanted to drive around just as much, absent an increase of 2.8 million bpd in US domestic crude production, electricity would have to replace the foregone gasoline. Ergo: how much wind power or natural gas would be needed, assuming electric cars at 200 watt hours per km? And what policies would be needed on fracking, eminent domain, and subsidies for high voltage direct current power lines to transmit electricity at acceptable loss rates? Note: the charts below only account for the foregone gasoline component of the imported crude oil. Gasoline is only around 45%-50% of total refined products. The US would also have to come up with suitable domestic or foreign replacements for the rest of the barrel: jet fuel, heating oil, fuel oil, lube oils, asphalt, etc. This topic is often neglected in discussions about reducing reliance on foreign oil: we do a lot more with it than just drive cars.
Required increase in wind power
Terawatt hours of electricity
500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Current Source: EIA, J.P. Morgan Private Bank. Required

Required increase in domestic natural gas production

50%

Electricity generated by wind in the US in 2010

Incremental electricity generation from wind required to replace gasoline component of imported oil from designated regions

45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Current Source: EIA, J.P. Morgan Private Bank. Required

EIA projected increase in dry gas production, 2010 - 2030

Incremental natural gas capacity required to replace gasoline component of imported oil from designated regions

6. While US natural gas production has been rising, how much natural gas does the US still import, and how long is the US projected by the EIA to be a gas importer?
US net imports of natural gas
Cubic feet, trillions
4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1973 1979 1985 1991 1997 2003 2009 2015 2021 2027 2033 Source: US Energy Information Administration.

7. Even if natural gas production rose faster then EIA projections, what are the tradeoffs of using natural gas to offset crude oil rather than coal, which has been the trend over the past decade?
US electricity generation from coal and natural gas
Percent of total US electricity generation
55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Coal

Natural Gas

Source: US Energy Information Administration.

Michael Cembalest Chief Investment Officer

BLS BP CERA E&P IEA OPEC Bureau of Labor Statistics British Petroleum Cambridge Energy Research Associates Exploration and Production International Energy Agency Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries BEA BTU EIA GAO OECD SWIFT Bureau of Economic Analysis British Thermal Unit US Energy Information Agency Government Accountability Office Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication

Our computations for #5 above draw on the conversions and energy math included in the November 2011 Eye on the Market on energy policy, and our meetings with Vaclav Smil at the University of Manitoba.

February 27, 2012 Topics: oil markets, Iran, and a Congressional press release for the times we live in
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