Sample Sovereign Risk Scoring Model

SAMPLE SOVEREIGN RISK SCORING MODEL
Country: Croatia
1.
Score:
Economy
For the most recent available 12 month period:

Currency:
Real exchange rate movement was:
a) Positive .3
b) Negative 0- 5%......................................2
c) Negative 6-15%...................................1
d) Negative more than 15% ...0
Sources:
www.hnb.hr
GDP:
GDP real growth:
a) Grew by more than 4% per year ....3
b) Grew by 2-4% per year ....2
c) Staged..1
d) Declined..0
Sources:
www.hnb.hr
Unemployment (best estimate available) was:
a) Less than 5%.......................................3
b) 5-10%..................................................2
c) 11-15%................................................1
d) More than 15%..................................0
Sources:
www.hnb.hr
MONEY
Inflation was:
a) 0-5% per year.3
b) 6-10% per year2
c) 10-15 per year.1
d) More than 15% per year .....0
Sources:
www.hnb.hr
The most recent real lending rate was:
a) Positive or negative by less than 3%....3
b) Negative by 3-5%...................................2
c) Negative by 6-10%...............................1
d) Negative by more than 10% .0
Sources:
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/croatia/real-interest-rate-percent-wb-data.html
If the country had a current account deficit, foreign reserves covered:
a) Surplus/more than 100% .3
b) 75-100%.............................................2
c) 50-75%...............................................1
d) Less than 50%....................................0
Sources: http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=hr&v=144 -foreign reserves and gold
http://www.indexmundi.com/croatia/current_account_balance.html -current account

balance
www.imf.org
Foreign reserves were:

a) Steady or increasing.3
b) Declining 1-5%....................................2
c) Declining 6-10%..................................1
d) Declining more than 10%....................0
Sources:
http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=hr&v=144
www.imf.org
Total external debt is:
a) less than 30% of GDP..3
b) 30-75% of GDP...2
c) 75-100% of GDP....1
d) More than 100% of GDP.0
Sources:
http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=hr&v=94 external debt
www.hnb.hr
Over the past 3 years, total external debt as a proportion of GDP:

a) Fell....3
b) Remained constant....2
c) Rose 1-5%.............................................1
d) Rose more than 5% points......0
Sources:
http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=hr&v=94 or www.hnb.hr
BALANCE OF PAYMENT
Compared to exports, imports were:
a) Smaller or in balance..3
b) 1-10% larger.....2
c) 11-20% larger.1
d) More than 20% larger.....0
Sources:
www.worldbank.org
The current account was:

a) In surplus or balance..3
b) In deficit by 1-2% of GDP..2
c) In deficit by 3-4% of GDP...1
d) In deficit by more than 4% of GDP0
Sources: http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=hr&v=145
Government finance:
National government finance was:
a) In surplus or balance 3
b) In deficit by 1-2% of GDP2
c) In deficit by 2-4% of GDP.1
d) In deficit by more than 4% of GDP...0
Sources:
http://www.economywatch.com/economicstatistics/croatia/General_Government_Balance_Percentage_of_GDP/
If government finances are in deficit, they have been so far:
a) Surplus/1 year or less.3
b) 2-5 years....1
c) More than 5 years.0
Sources:
http://www.economywatch.com/economicstatistics/croatia/General_Government_Balance_Percentage_of_GDP/
Over the past 3 years, the ratio of fixed investments to GDP has:
a) Increased....3
b) stagnated1
c) decreased...0
Sources:
http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=hr&v=142
The ratio of total trade (exports +imports) to GDP was:

a) more than 75% 3
b) 51-75%.................................................2
c) 25-50%................................................1
d) Less than 25%......................................0
Sources:
www.imf.org
The annual domestic savings rate was:
a) More than 30%.........................................4
b) 20-30%....................................................3
c) 15-20....2
d) Less than 15%..........................................0
Sources:
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/croatia/gross-domestic-savings-us-dollar-wb-data.html

Sample Sovereign Risk Scoring Model

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What are some of the economic indicators mentioned for Croatia?

What factors are considered in calculating Croatia's sovereign risk score?

SAMPLE SOVEREIGN RISK SCORING MODEL

For the most recent available 12 month period:

d) More than 15%..................................0

Sources: http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=hr&v=144 -foreign reserves and gold

http://www.indexmundi.com/croatia/current_account_balance.html -current account

Foreign reserves were:

Over the past 3 years, total external debt as a proportion of GDP:

d) Rose more than 5% points......0

The current account was:

The ratio of total trade (exports +imports) to GDP was:

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