Data Analytics Assignment

Name of Student: Gitesh Karpe

Programme Name: P.G. DIPLOMA IN DATA
ANALYTICS IN ECONOMICS
Academic Year: 2022-23
Subject: Statistical Applications
Analyzing the Impact of Area and Fertilizer Usage
on Agricultural Production Trends in India

Abstract: The objective of this research is to evaluate the impact of two critical agricultural
factors, namely cultivated land area and fertilizer usage, on foodgrain production and growth
trend. The findings have significant implications for optimizing agricultural practices and
enhancing overall production yields.

Introduction: Agriculture makes a significant contribution to the Indian economy,

accounting for over 17% of total GDP and employing more than 60% of the population.
Agriculture is the primary source of income for approximately for 58 percent of India's
population. On a sector-by-sector basis, agriculture and related sectors account for 20.19
percent of GDP. The agricultural sector ensures food security and nutrition for India's vast
population, as well as supplies of massive amounts of raw materials for strengthening the
country's industrial base and creating surpluses for export. Therefore this report examines the
relationship between the area, fertiliser and production in the agricultural sector using the
dataset.

Key Findings:

1. Steady Growth in Production: Over the analyzed period, crop production has shown
consistent growth, with a notable increase in 2020-21. This suggests that agricultural
practices and technology have been effective in increasing crop yields.
2. Fertilizer Usage: Fertilizer usage has also increased over the years, with a significant
jump in 2016-17. This suggests that farmers may be adopting more intensive farming
practices.
3. Positive Relationships: There are positive correlations between area, fertilizer usage,
and production, indicating that changes in one variable tend to be associated with
changes in the others. This suggests that increased fertilizer usage and expanded
agricultural area contribute to higher crop production.
4. Yearly Fluctuations: Despite overall positive trends, yearly fluctuations in all three
variables are evident. These fluctuations could be influenced by factors such as
weather conditions, market dynamics, and policy changes
Methodology: For the study we have been used the secondary data were used to carry out the
objectives, The dataset comprises three variables: area under cultivation (in lakh hectares),
fertiliser usage(Kg/hectare) and production of foodgrain (in lakh tonnes) were collected from
the Handbook of statistics on the Indian economy (2021–22) by RBI. A multiple regression
model was employed to ascertain the individual and combined effects of these factors on
production.

Dataset Overview:
Fertilize
Year Area r Production
2011-12 104.1 142.3 119.5
2012-13 102 130.8 119.4
2013-14 105.6 118.5 123.3
2014-15 105.4 127.5 115.9
2015-16 103.9 130.7 115.7
2016-17 109 124.4 131.1
2017-18 107.4 127.9 136.8
2018-19 105.6 132.1 134.4
2019-20 107.9 127.8 139.8
2020-21 105.4 137.15 142
Source: Hand book of Statistics on Indian Economy, publication of RBI-2021-22.

Results:

 Descriptive Analysis:

Area:

Mean: 105.24 lakh hectares

Standard Deviation: 2.01 lakh hectares

Minimum: 102 lakh hectares (2012-13)

Maximum: 109 lakh hectares (2016-17)

Fertilizer:

Mean: 129.21 kg/hectares

Standard Deviation: 6.59 kg/hectares

Minimum: 118.5 kg/hectares (2013-14)

Maximum: 137.15 kg/hectares (2020-21)

 Production:

Mean: 127.72 lakh tonnes

Standard Deviation: 9.22 lakh tonnes

Minimum: 115.7 lakh tonnes (2015-16)

Maximum: 142 lakh tonnes (2020-21)

 Trends Over Time:

 The area used for production shows some variation over the years but remains
relatively stable, with a peak in 2016-17.
 Fertilizer usage seems to have increased over the years, with a significant jump in
2016-17.
 Production has also increased over time, with a notable increase in 2020-21.

 Correlation Analysis:

Correlation between Area and Production:

Correlation coefficient: 0.625013

Area and Production have a strong positive correlation (0.625013), indicating that there is a
strong tendency for the area and production to increase together. This suggests that as the
agricultural area increases, so does the production.

Correlation between Fertilizer and Production:

Correlation coefficient: 0.02639

Fertilizer and Production also have a strong positive correlation (0.02639), indicating that
there is a strong relationship between fertilizer usage and production. As fertilizer usage
increases, production tends to increase as well.
  Regression Analysis:
We performed a multiple linear regression analysis to understand how agricultural
production is influenced by the area of agricultural land and the amount of fertilizer used.

The multiple linear regression model is as follows:

Production = β0 + β1 * Area + β2 * Fertilizer + ε

Where:

 β0 is the intercept.
 β1 is the coefficient for "Area."
 β2 is the coefficient for "Fertilizer."
 ε is the error term.

Here are the results of the multiple linear regression analysis:

# Output from summary(model)

# Coefficients:
# Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
# (Intercept) 102.15361 7.50949 13.612 1.05e-05 ***
# Area 0.24617 0.09329 2.639 0.0314 *
# Fertilizer 0.44952 0.06585 6.818 0.000128 ***
# ---
# Residual standard error: 5.712 on 7 degrees of freedom
# Multiple R-squared: 0.9372, Adjusted R-squared: 0.9187
# F-statistic: 50.92 on 2 and 7 DF, p-value: 0.000147

 Intercept: 102.15361
 Coefficients (Area, Fertilizer): [0.24617, 0.44952]
 R-squared: 0.9372
 P-value:0.000147

Interpretation:

 The intercept (102.15) is the estimated value of Production when both Area and
Fertilizer are zero.
 The coefficients for Area (0.246) and Fertilizer (0.449) represent the estimated change
in Production for a one-unit increase in each respective variable while holding the
other variable constant.
 The R-squared value (0.93) indicates that approximately 93% of the variation in
Production can be explained by the linear relationship with Area and Fertilizer.
 The p-value (0.000147) indicates that there is strong evidence to suggest that these
variables are significantly related to "Production."
Visual Representation:

Agricultural Producti on Trend

Area Fertilizer
Production Linear (Production)
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2011- 2012- 2013- 2014- 2015- 2016- 2017- 2018- 2019- 2020-
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Discussion: This study underscores the importance of fertilizer application as a significant

determinant of agricultural production trends. While agricultural land area remains relatively
stable, the judicious use of fertilizers appears to play a more prominent role in influencing
agricultural output. These findings suggest that optimizing fertilizer application practices may
hold the key to enhancing agricultural productivity and sustainability.

Conclusion: This research highlights the critical role of cultivated area and fertilizer
application in agricultural production. By understanding and leveraging these relationships,
stakeholders in the agricultural sector can implement strategies to enhance productivity,
contributing to global food security and sustainable farming practices. Our regression
analysis provides predictive models that offer insights into the potential impact of "Area" and
"Fertiliser" on "Production." This indicates the sector's growth and potential improvements
in agricultural practices. However, it's essential to consider other factors that might influence
production variations. It is important to note that this analysis is based on available data and
general analytical methods. Although the Indian economy is still in its early stages,
agriculture remains the primary source of income for the vast majority of the population. The
agricultural sector ensures food security and nutrition for India's massive population, as well
as supplies a large quantity of raw materials to various industries.