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    Thai Politics, Economy and Foreign Policy

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    Hario Akhmad Rifai
    Thai politics has been defined by the divide between the pro-Thaksin Red Shirt movement and the anti-Thaksin Yellow Shirt movement since a 2006 coup removed Thaksin from power. This divide is reflected across multiple dimensions of Thai society and has led to ongoing protests and occasional violence. The economy showed signs of recovery in 2010, growing an estimated 3.5% after contracting 3% in 2009, but continued political instability could threaten further growth. Three possible scenarios for Thailand's political future are seen - slow recovery alongside more anti-government protests risks new elections, swift recovery and protest fatigue could stabilize the current coalition government, or major riots remain a possibility, risking another coup. Thai foreign policy traditionally balances relations

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    Thai Politics, Economy and Foreign Policy

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    Hario Akhmad Rifai
    162 views27 pages
    Thai politics has been defined by the divide between the pro-Thaksin Red Shirt movement and the anti-Thaksin Yellow Shirt movement since a 2006 coup removed Thaksin from power. This divide is reflected across multiple dimensions of Thai society and has led to ongoing protests and occasional violence. The economy showed signs of recovery in 2010, growing an estimated 3.5% after contracting 3% in 2009, but continued political instability could threaten further growth. Three possible scenarios for Thailand's political future are seen - slow recovery alongside more anti-government protests risks new elections, swift recovery and protest fatigue could stabilize the current coalition government, or major riots remain a possibility, risking another coup. Thai foreign policy traditionally balances relations

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    Thai politics has been defined by the divide between the pro-Thaksin Red Shirt movement and the anti-Thaksin Yellow Shirt movement since a 2006 coup removed Thaksin from power. This divide is reflected across multiple dimensions of Thai society and has led to ongoing protests and occasional violence. The economy showed signs of recovery in 2010, growing an estimated 3.5% after contracting 3% in 2009, but continued political instability could threaten further growth. Three possible scenarios for Thailand's political future are seen - slow recovery alongside more anti-government protests risks new elections, swift recovery and protest fatigue could stabilize the current coalition government, or major riots remain a possibility, risking another coup. Thai foreign policy traditionally balances relations

    Copyright:

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    Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as ppt, pdf, or txt
    162 views27 pages

    Thai Politics, Economy and Foreign Policy

    Uploaded by

    Hario Akhmad Rifai
    Thai politics has been defined by the divide between the pro-Thaksin Red Shirt movement and the anti-Thaksin Yellow Shirt movement since a 2006 coup removed Thaksin from power. This divide is reflected across multiple dimensions of Thai society and has led to ongoing protests and occasional violence. The economy showed signs of recovery in 2010, growing an estimated 3.5% after contracting 3% in 2009, but continued political instability could threaten further growth. Three possible scenarios for Thailand's political future are seen - slow recovery alongside more anti-government protests risks new elections, swift recovery and protest fatigue could stabilize the current coalition government, or major riots remain a possibility, risking another coup. Thai foreign policy traditionally balances relations

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    Thai Politics, Economy, and Foreign Policy

    - A Brief Introduction Dr. Kitti Prasirtsuk Thammasat University

    Thai Politics

    Thaksin Thailand (2001-2006)

    What has happened?


    Controversy around Thaksin (2005 - ?) esp. after the 2006 coup Antt-Thaksin Camp vs. Pro-Thaksin Camp

    Never-ending protests
    Violence

    ** People are divided in the protracted conflicts.

    The Yellow Shirts


    PAD: Peoples Alliance for Democracy

    The Red Shirts: United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD)

    The Yellows went beyond limit.

    The Red Rampage

    The Reds turned nasty: The April Riot 2009

    Why it happened? Multi-dimensional conflicts


    The Reds vs. The Yellows Pro-Thaksin Camp vs. Anti-Thaksin Camp Countryside vs. Cities Poor vs. middle-class North / Northeast vs. South / Bangkok Pro-efficiency vs. Pro-integrity * elite-centered / centralization social confrontation ** so far, no big shock in Thailand now real transition?
    10

    Current Political Map


    Pro-Thaksin Camp New Capitalists Grassroots People from the North and Northeast Anti-Thaksin Camp Military/Bureaucracy Old Capitalists Middle Class Southern People Most media Most scholars
    11

    Current Trends
    Cleavages among the Anti-Thaksin Camp: Democrat Party, Thai Pride Party, Military, The Yellow Shirts (PAD) Conflicts over Constitutional Revision Problems with Cambodia More people became neutral. ** But the Reds are now stepping up their anti-govt campaign after the courts verdict on partial confiscation of Thaksins assets.
    12

    Chavalit
    Prem Thaksin

    Abhisit

    Pallop
    Sondhi

    Nevin

    Veera

    Jatuporn Nattawut

    Anuphong

    Prawit
    13

    The Thai Economy

    14

    Basic ASEAN Indicators


    Total land area Country
    km2 2008 thousand 2008

    Total population
    1/

    Annual Gross domestic Gross domestic Population product 2/ population product 1/ per capita density 1/ growth at current prices at current prices
    persons per km 2008
    2

    percent 2008

    US$ million 2008

    US$ PPP 2008

    3/

    Brunei Darussalam 5,765 Indonesia Malaysia Singapore Thailand Cambodia Lao PDR Myanmar Viet Nam ASEAN 1,860,360 330,252 707 513,120 181,035 236,800 676,577 331,212 4,435,827

    397 228,523 27,863 90,457 4,839 66,482 14,656 5,763 58,510 86,160 583,651

    69 123 84 302 6,844 130 81 24 86 260 132

    1.8 1.3 2.3 2.1 5.5 0.7 2.0 2.8 1.7 1.2 1.5

    14,146.7 511,174.4 222,673.6 166,772.8 184,120.4 273,666.1 11,081.6 5,289.0 27,182.0 90,700.8 1,506,807.4

    50,234.8 3,705.0 13,192.1 3,421.1 50,347.1 7,889.7 1,794.0 2,237.3 1,082.9 2,595.2 5,007.1
    15

    The Philippines 300,000

    Source: ASEAN Secretariat, as of 17 July 2009

    More Info on Thai Economy


    Thai poor 8.5% (5.4 million) Tourists 1.6 million in 2009 Export-dependent rate 70%

    GDP Breakdown

    17

    Export Breakdowns

    Hi-tech includes machinery (13%), electronics (10%), vehicle (8.7%), electrical appl.(8%)
    18

    Good News about Thai Economy


    - Global economy shows some

    improvement sign.
    - Thai Strength Projects: 800 billon Baht - Unemployment rate only 1.8% (400,000) - 2009: only -3% growth

    - 2010: +3.5% growth estimated + 14%

    export increase
    19

    Bad News about Thai Economy


    - Consumer confidence and private

    investment remain low.


    - Continuing political crisis

    21

    22

    3 Possible Scenarios
    1. Slow economic recovery + escalated anti-

    govt movement + coalition cleavages parliament dissolution


    2. Swift economic recovery + exhausted anti-

    govt movement the current coalition govt survives


    3. Massive riots

    another coup
    23

    Thai Foreign Policy

    24

    General Positions
    Good neighborly policy / ASEAN Alliance with the U.S. Balanced engagement with major powers Friends with all ** Bamboo Diplomacy
    25

    Foreign Policy during Thaksin


    Less ASEAN-centered Quest for regional leadership:
    - Asia Cooperation Dialogue (ACD) - Ayeyawadee - Chao Phraya - Mekong Economic Cooperation Strategy (ACMECS)

    Multiple FTAs Personal relations with neighboring countries, esp. Cambodia, Myanmar
    26

    Current Foreign Policy


    ASEAN-centered More formal relations with neighbors Human rights emphasis

    FTA consolidation
    Connectivity

    27

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