Louisianas 2012 Comprehensive Master Plan for a Sustainable Coast

BRW Panel Presentation March 8, 2013 Jerome Zee Zeringue

Region at Risk
Over the last 100 years hurricanes have caused approximately

$2,700 billion
(in 2010 dollars) across Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.

Region at Risk
As storms intensify and increase in frequency and coastal environments continue to degrade, the Gulf Coast could face cumulative economic damages of around

$350 billion
over the next twenty years.

According to a recent report by Entergy and Americas Wetland Foundation

Regional Population Growth

Since 1970

109% increase in Gulf State

population

52% increase in total U.S.

population

Energy Production

54% of U.S. Crude Oil 52% of U.S. Natural Gas 47% U.S. Refining
Capacity

Energy

If placed end to end, the oil and gas pipelines in the Gulf of Mexico could wrap around the Earths equator.

Waterborne Commerce
2 of the worlds largest ports and 6 of the top 10 largest ports in the U.S. on the Gulf Coast.

50% of all U.S. international trade tonnage passed through Gulf coast ports in 2009

Seafood 2007 - 2009

$10.5 billion in sales and $5.6 billion in income from the seafood industry Gulf wide.
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Ecosystem
97% of commercial seafood landings from the Gulf rely on estuaries and wetlands 75% of North American migratory birds depend on estuarine habitats during migration

1 acre of wetlands can sequester significant amounts of carbon dioxide and store 1.5 million gallons of water thereby reducing flooding impacts

Regional Statistics: GDP

The GDP of the five states of the Gulf Coast Region was almost $2.4 trillion in 2009--30% of the U.S. GDP.
Gulf States All Other States

$2.4 Trillion GDP in 2009

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Regional Statistics: Global

If considered an individual country, the Gulf Coast would rank 7th in global GDP

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Louisiana is Experiencing a Coastal Crisis

1,880 square miles lost since the 1930s

Currently losing over 16 square miles per year

Responding to the Crisis

2005 Hurricanes Katrina and Rita CPRA Board Established 2007 Original Master Plan Developed 2008 Hurricanes Gustav and Ike

2009 CPRA Implementation Office Established

2010 Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill 2011 Mississippi River High Water Event

2012 Master Plan Updated

Responding to the Crisis Louisianas Coastal Program: Past and Present

2012 Coastal Master Plan

Paradigm Shift
Rigorous, science-based plan Recommends specific projects for near-term and long-term implementation Developed through a ground breaking technical effort and extensive public outreach

Our Communities and Livelihoods at Risk

Predicted Future Flooding from a 100 Year Flood Event Future Without Action

Potential for damages to reach $23.4 billion annually

Increasing threats to lives, jobs, communities and the economy

Importance of Pre-Hazard Mitigation

Each dollar spent on mitigation activities saves society an average of $4 dollars. Floodplain management actions save the country more than $1 billion in prevented damages each year.

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Incentives for Elevating in A Zones

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Incentives for Elevating in V Zones

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Proactive Measures Must be Taken

The costs of inaction are enormous:
Should land loss continue unabated, it would cost approximately $40 billion just to handle the retreat of communities inland. Damage to the network of pipelines in and around Louisianas coast would result in U.S. consumers paying billions in increased energy costs. The reactionary expenditures required after Hurricane Katrina were $250 billion. Future storms could have similarly devastating impacts.

Since 2007, the Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority has:

Built or improved 159 miles of levees Benefited 19,405 acres of coastal habitat Secured approximately $17 billion in state and federal funding for protection and restoration projects Moved over 150 projects into design and construction Constructed 32 miles of barrier islands/berms

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Louisianas 2012 Comprehensive Master Plan for a Sustainable Coast

BRW Panel Presentation March 8, 2013 Karim Belhadjali

Grounded in Science
Decision Criteria and Ecosystem Services
Risk Reduction
Oyster

Distribution of flood risk across socioeconomic groups

Flood protection of historic properties

Shrimp
Freshwater Availability Alligator

Expected Annual Damages

Flood protection of strategic assets Operation and maintenance costs

Waterfowl Saltwater Fisheries Freshwater Fisheries Carbon Sequestration

Restoration

Sustainability

Support for navigation

Use of natural processes Support for cultural heritage

Nitrogen Removal
Agriculture/Aquaculture Other Coastal Wildlife Nature-Based Tourism

Land Area

Support for oil & gas

OUTREACH & ENGAGEMENT GROUPS

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Frequency of Engagement

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Master Plan Modeling

Using New Tools, Breaking New Ground

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Evaluation of Hundreds of Existing Projects

Nonstructural Measures

Nearly 400 Projects Evaluated Across the Coast

The Analytical Challenge

Complex coastal environment Wetlands, bays, barriers/Rural, urban, industry Planning horizon 50 years need to consider change over time Multiple future scenarios Projects 210 restoration projects 34 Structural protection projects 156 Non-structural protection projects Diverse community needs, competing stakeholder preferences
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Master Plan Tools Modeling in a Systems Context

Future Scenarios
Moderate Scenario

Less Optimistic Scenario

Variation in Sea Level Rise (Eustatic)

0.45 m over 50 years

0.27 m over 50 years

On-going analysis is incorporating new research and evaluation of a scenario of 0.78 m over 50 years was recently conducted

Variation in Subsidence Rates

Subsidence Advisory Panel Members: Louis Britsch, PhD, PG, USACEMVN; Roy Dokka, PhD, LSU; Joseph Dunbar, PG, USACE-ERDC; Mark Kulp, PhD, UNO; Michael Stephen, PhD, PG, CEC; Kyle Straub, PhD, Tulane; Torbjorn Tornqvist, PhD, Tulane

Relative SLR rates used in Master Plan

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Ecosystem Uncertainties Ranges

Uncertainty Sea Level Rise Subsidence Storm Intensity Storm Frequency River Discharge / Sediment Load River Nutrient Concentration Rainfall Evapotranspiration Marsh Collapse Threshold Moderate Conditions 0.3m over 50 yrs Spatially Variable +10% of current Current Current -12% of current Current Current Mid-range of salinity/inundation values Less Optimistic 0.5m over 50 yrs Spatially Variable +20% of current +3% of current -5% of current Current -4SD +4SD Lower 0.25 end of the salinity/inundation values
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2012 Coastal Master Plan

Built on world class science and engineering Evaluated hundreds of existing project concepts Incorporated extensive public input and review Resource constrained Funding, water, sediment

State of Louisiana The Honorable Bobby Jindal, Governor

Louisianas Comprehensive Master Plan for a Sustainable Coast

committed to our coast

Identified investments that will pay off, not just for us, but for our children and grandchildren

DRAFT JAN 2012

Louisianas 2012 Comprehensive Master Plan for a Sustainable Coast

Coastal Community Resiliency Program Framework

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What the Master Plan Delivers

The plan includes a wide variety of project types distributed throughout the coast. We are using every tool in the toolbox to protect and restore south Louisiana.

What the Master Plan Delivers

Overview of Nonstructural Measures

Nonstructural physical measures:
Elevation of structures (i.e. homes, businesses) Floodproofing of structures (localized levees, flood resistance membranes,
watertight closures, etc.)

Voluntary acquisitions or buyouts Community relocation measures

Nonstructural programmatic measures:

Hazard mitigation and recovery planning Public education and outreach Ordinances and building codes Policy and regulation changes Land use planning & floodplain management

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Nonstructural Protection Projects

Residential & Non-residential Floodproofing (0 - 3) Residential Elevation (3 18) BFE+1 or BFE+4 Residential Voluntary Acquisition (> 18)

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Master Plan Recommendations for the Nonstructural Program

1. Increase coordination among state and parish agencies working on nonstructural issues in Louisiana. Need a single entity to act as a clearinghouse.
2. Consider amending regulatory requirements, such as: 1) local land use planning; 2) building codes; 3) flood damage prevention ordinances; 4) risk reduction project funding. 3. Identify the needs of Louisiana residents and encourage the development of funding and support initiatives to meet those needs. 4. Train officials and educate the public on their flood risks and the nonstructural options available to them.

Implementation Challenges
Inconsistent enforcement of ordinances and programs Public perception of nonstructural programs Voluntary participation, local implementation capacity Funding limited
Special Flood Total Parish Parish Area Hazard Area Percentage Area (Sq Minus Open in Parish (Sq of Parish in Miles) Water Bodies Miles) SFHA 1,937
1,467

Parish

Cameron
Lafourche

1,640
1,178

1,464
1,069

89%
91%

Plaquemines
St. Bernard

2,567
2,162

1,042
489

980
458

94%
94%

Terrebonne

2,085

1,480

1,416

96%
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Louisianas 2012 Comprehensive Master Plan for a Sustainable Coast

BRW Panel Presentation March 8, 2013 Melanie Saucier

Program Goals and Objectives

To improve upon the recommendations in the 2012 Master Plan by providing a specific, coordinated strategy for implementing nonstructural projects in communities To coordinate resources and expand citizens access to information and tools that can help guide decisions on coastal community resiliency measures

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Program Framework
1) Develop Data & Tools: Develop integrated databases on flood risk, vulnerability, and socio-economic trends to determine the most effective resilience measures. 2) Provide Information: Increase public awareness of current and future flood risks due to climate change and provide clear mapping and visualization tools for coastal communities. 3) Provide Options: Maximize choices of flood risk reduction measures and clearly communicate options to individuals and communities so they can make decisions for themselves. 4) Create Platforms for Collaboration & Action: Create networks of coastal stakeholders and diverse community participants to partner in program development and implement solutions.

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1) Develop Data & Tools: Develop integrated databases on flood risk, vulnerability, and socio-economic trends to determine the most effective resilience measures.
Utilize data from the CLARA risk modeling and expand to include higher resolution spatial analysis Determine areas of high risk, vulnerability and repetitive loss Evaluate different levels of freeboard and acquisition heights

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2) Provide Information: Increase public awareness of current and future flood risks due to climate change and provide clear mapping and visualization tools for coastal communities.
Understand past successes, failures and current and future efforts in the coastal area
Determine existing and anticipated funding sources Determine the best type of risk communication and education methods to reach the public Develop clear, concise flood maps and risk communication tools

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3) Provide Options: Maximize choices of flood risk reduction measures and clearly communicate options to individuals and communities so they can make decisions for themselves.
Outline the specific operational structural of the program and seek approval from CPRA Determine appropriate methods for prioritizing projects in areas of high risk which best maximize the MP risk reduction objective Provide communities and parishes with effective options for the use and dispersal of funds

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4) Create Platforms for Collaboration & Action: Build networks of coastal stakeholders and community participants to partner in program development and implement solutions.
Develop CPRA Subcommittee and Advisory Group to enhance coordination of agencies/efforts Include members from:
Coastal Parish Officials Federal & State Agencies Community Leaders Non-Profits Academia, Researchers Levee Boards Economic Development Organizations Planners, Floodplain Managers, Architects, Engineers

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Coastal Community Resiliency Subcommittee & Advisory Group

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Coastal Community Resiliency Subcommittee Members

Department
Chairman South Lafourche Levee District Levee DEQ DOI DOA DOTD Pontchartrain Levee District LA Dept of Environmental Quality LA Dept of Insurance LA Dept of Administration LA Dept of Transportation

Contact
Windell Curole Kim Marousek Paul Miller Ben Moss Craig Taffaro Chris Knotts Kevin Davis Paul Sawyer Joey Breaux John Barry

Title
Manager Planning Director Special Assistant to the Secretary Assistant to Commissioner Hazard Mitigation Director Public Works Administrator Director Director, Federal Programs Agri Enviro Specialist Manager Vice President Stream Property Manager

GOHSEP Governors Office of Homeland Security LED DAF SEFPA SWLA Louisiana Economic Development Department of Agriculture & Forestry Southeast Flood Protection Authority

District Representative for Southwest LA David Richard

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CPRA Coastal Community Resiliency Subcommittee

Goal: to provide an innovative, inter-agency partnership which
supports a more holistic statewide decision making process to reduce the socio-economic, cultural, and environmental risks that communities face from coastal hazards.

Charge:
Synchronize, streamline, and further develop agency efforts to enhance coordinated decision making Focus resources on critical areas of need Provide clear recommendations on policies and procedures for nonstructural implementation

Anticipate meetings held quarterly with reports back to the CPRA Board as we progress
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1st Subcommittee Meeting Outcomes

Major focus areas moving forward:
Outreach & Education Gathering lessons learned from others Establishing a network of knowledgeable partners in the field

Next Meeting: May Timeframe Will focus on the following items:

Review updated data and feedback from stakeholders Develop a targeted outreach and engagement plan Discuss appropriate design criteria and framework for streamlined and consistent implementation of projects across the coast

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Coastal Community Resiliency Advisory Group

Goal: to provide an innovative, collaborative framework to support solutions
that reduce the socio-economic, cultural, and environmental risks that communities face from coastal hazards. 30 core participants from federal, state, parish, institutes, and academics who currently work on resiliency issues or research. Group will provide feedback on lessons learned, implementation issues, communications, and the programmatic framework. Other stakeholders will be engaged as certain key topics are addressed:
Community outreach Design/architecture Land use planning Structural protection Economic development Relocation
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Stakeholder Survey Results

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Stakeholder Feedback
Conducted a Stakeholder Questionnaire to collect feedback on the following:
How can we best frame the nonstructural program? What nonstructural-related work is currently being done? What challenges do practitioners face in their work? What policies/programs are needed to support effective implementation? What groups are interested in collaborating with CPRA on the Advisory Board?

Sent to 150 people between Oct - Nov 2012 -- Received 88 total responses

committed to our coast

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New Term Coastal Community Resiliency Program

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Next Steps
Data Collection, Assessment & Refinement

Meet with the Coastal Community Resiliency Advisory Group

Collect lessons learned and key recommendations from others Outline program strategy for project prioritization, implementation and community outreach

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Data Collection and Assessment

Current Actions:
Develop a GIS database of projects implemented since Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, high risk areas, and census/demographic data (e.g., income, education, age, race, etc.). Conduct a higher resolution spatial analysis with the CLARA model than that provided in the 2012 Coastal Master Plan. Use benefit-cost and vulnerability analysis to assist in the identification of high priority areas. Consider additional nonstructural options, such as additional levels of freeboard and different acquisition heights.

CPRA will utilize the updated data to provide enhanced visual and graphic tools that can help to educate and inform the public on their levels of risk and resiliency options.

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Examples of the Community Characteristics Data

Location Characteristics:
Ground elevation FEMA flood zone Depth of flooding

Social Characteristics:
Average age (% of elderly) Average income Race (% of minorities) Unemployment Education level Home ownership Flood Insurance policies inplace

Structural Characteristics:
Total number of structures Number of historic properties Number of critical facilities (e.g., hospitals, schools, emergency response facilities) Number of strategic assets Average value Number of repetitive and severe repetitive loss structures Structure type (mobile home, single family, etc.) Structural protection measures in-place Number of structures previously mitigated

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Contacts

Karim Belhadjali
karim.belhadjali@la.gov 225-342-4123

Melanie Saucier, CFM

melanie.saucier@la.gov 225-342-4733

Andrea Galinski, CFM

andrea.galinski@la.gov 225-342-4117

committed to our coast

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