CHAPTER 4:

PROBABILITY

1
EXPERIMENT, OUTCOMES,
AND SAMPLE SPACE

 Simple and Compound Events

2
 EXPERIMENT, OUTCOMES,
AND SAMPLE SPACE
 Definition
 An experiment is a process that,
when performed, results in one and
only one of many observations. These
observations are called that
outcomes of the experiment. The
collection of all outcomes for an
experiment is called a sample space.
3
 Table 4.1 Examples of Experiments, Outcomes,
and Sample Spaces

Experiment Outcomes Sample Space

Toss a coin once Head, Tail S = {Head, Tail}
Roll a die once 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Toss a coin twice HH, HT, TH, TT S = {HH, HT, TH,
Play lottery Win, Lose TT}
Take a test Pass, Fail S = {Win, Lose}
Select a student Male, Female S = {Pass, Fail}
S = {Male, Female}

4
 Example 4-1
 Draw the Venn and tree diagrams for
the experiment of tossing a coin once.

5
 Figure 4.1 (a) Venn Diagram and (b) tree
diagram for one toss of a coin.

Outcomes

Head H
S

H T
Tail T

(b)
(a)

6
 Example 4-2
 Draw the Venn and tree diagrams for
the experiment of tossing a coin twice.

7
Figure 4.2 a Venn diagram for two tosses of
a coin.

S
HH HT

TH
TT

(a)

8
Figure 4.2 b Tree diagram for two tosses of
coin.

Second Final
First toss
toss outcomes

HH
H

H
T HT
H TH
T

T TT
(b)

9
 Example 4-3
 Suppose we randomly select two
persons from the members of a club
and observe whether the person
selected each time is a man or a
woman. Write all the outcomes for this
experiment. Draw the Venn and tree
diagrams for this experiment.

10
Figure 4.3 a Venn diagram for selecting two
persons.

S
MM MW

WM WW

(a)

11
Figure 4.3 b Tree diagram for selecting two
persons.

First Second Final

selection selection outcomes

MM
M

M
W MW
M WM
W

W WW
(b)

12
 Simple and Compound
Events

 Definition
 An event is a collection of one or
more of the outcomes of an
experiment.

13
 Simple and Compound
Events cont.
 Definition
 An event that includes one and only
one of the (final) outcomes for an
experiment is called a simple event
and is denoted by Ei.

14
 Example 4-4
 Reconsider Example 4-3 on selecting two persons from
the members of a club and observing whether the
person selected each time is a man or a woman. Each of
the final four outcomes (MM, MW, WM, WW) for this
experiment is a simple event. These four events can be
denoted by E1, E2, E3, and E4, respectively. Thus,

 E1 = (MM ), E2 = (MW ), E3 = (WM ), and E4 =

(WW )

15
 Simple and Compound
Events
 Definition
 A compound event is a collection of
more than one outcome for an
experiment.

16
 Example 4-5
 Reconsider Example 4-3 on selecting two persons
from the members of a club and observing whether
the person selected each time is a man or a woman.
Let A be the event that at most one man is selected.
Event A will occur if either no man or one man is
selected. Hence, the event A is given by
A = {MW, WM, WW}

 Because event A contains more than one outcome,

it is a compound event. The Venn diagram in Figure
4.4 gives a graphic presentation of compound event
A.

17
Figure 4.4 Venn diagram for event A.

S
MW A
MM

WM WW

18
 Example 4-6
 In a group of a people, some are in favor of genetic engineering
and others are against it. Two persons are selected at random
from this group and asked whether they are in favor of or against
genetic engineering. How many distinct outcomes are possible?
Draw a Venn diagram and a tree diagram for this experiment. List
all the outcomes included in each of the following events and
mention whether they are simple or compound events.

(a) Both persons are in favor of the genetic engineering.

(b) At most one person is against genetic engineering.
(c) Exactly one person is in favor of genetic engineering.

19
 Solution 4-6
 Let
 F = a person is in favor of genetic engineering
 A = a person is against genetic engineering
 FF = both persons are in favor of genetic engineering
 FA = the first person is in favor and the second is
against
 AF = the first is against and the second is in favor
 AA = both persons are against genetic engineering

20
Figure 4.5 a Venn diagram.

FF FA

AF AA

(a)

21
Figure 4.5 b Tree diagram.

First Second Final

person person outcomes

FF
F

F
A FA
F AF
A

A AA
(b)

22
 Solution 4-6
a) Both persons are in favor of genetic
engineering = { FF }
It is a simple event.
b) At most one person is against genetic
engineering = { FF, FA, AF }
It is a compound event.
c) Exactly one person is in favor of genetic
engineering = { FA, AF }
It is a compound event.

23
 CALCULATING
PROBABILITY
 Two Properties of probability
 Three Conceptual Approaches to
Probability
 Classical Probability
 Relative Frequency Concept of
Probability
 Subjective Probability

24
 CALCULATING PROBABLITY
 Definition
 Probability is a numerical measure
of the likelihood that a specific event
will occur.

25
 Two Properties of
Probability
 First Property of Probability
 0 ≤ P (Ei) ≤ 1
 0 ≤ P (A) ≤ 1

 Second Property of Probability

 ΣP (Ei) = P (E1) + P (E2) + P (E3) + … = 1

26
 Three Conceptual
Approaches to Probability
 Classical Probability

 Definition
 Two or more outcomes (or events)
that have the same probability of
occurrence are said to be equally
likely outcomes (or events).

27
 Classical Probability
Classical Probability Rule to Find Probability

1
P( Ei ) =
Total number of outcomes for the experiment

Number of outcomes favorable to A

P( A) =
Total number of outcomes for the experiment

28
 Example 4-7
 Find the probability of obtaining a
head and the probability of obtaining a
tail for one toss of a coin.

29
 Solution 4-7

1 1
P(head) = = = .50
Total number of outcomes 2

Similarly,
1
P ( tail) = = .50
2
30
 Example 4-8
 Find the probability of obtaining an
even number in one roll of a die.

31
Solution 4-8

Number of outcomes included in A 3

P(head) = = = .50
Total number of outcomes 6

32
 Example 4-9
 In a group of 500 women, 80 have
played golf at lest once. Suppose one
of these 500 women is randomly
selected. What is the probability that
she has played golf at least once?

33
 Solution 4-9

80
P(selected woman has played golf at least once) = = .16
500

34
 Three Conceptual
Approaches to Probability
cont.
 Relative Concept of Probability

 Using Relative Frequency as an

Approximation of Probability
 If an experiment is repeated n times and an
event A is observed f times, then, according
to the relative frequency concept of
probability:
f
P( A) =
n 35
 Example 4-10
 Ten of the 500 randomly selected cars
manufactured at a certain auto factory
are found to be lemons. Assuming that
the lemons are manufactured
randomly, what is the probability that
the next car manufactured at this auto
factory is a lemon?

36
 Solution 4-10
 Let n denotes the total number of cars in the
sample and f the number of lemons in n. Then,
 n = 500 and f = 10
 Using the relative frequency concept of
probability, we obtain
f 10
P (next car is a lemon) = = = .02
n 500

37
Table 4.2 Frequency and Relative Frequency
Distributions for the Sample of Cars

Car f Relative frequency

Good 490 490/500 = .98

Lemon 10 10/500 = .02
n = 500 Sum = 1.00

38
 Law of Large Numbers
 Definition
 Law of Large Numbers If an
experiment is repeated again and
again, the probability of an event
obtained from the relative frequency
approaches the actual or theoretical
probability.

39
 Three Conceptual
Approaches to Probability
 Subjective Probability

 Definition
 Subjective probability is the
probability assigned to an event based
on subjective judgment, experience,
information and belief.

40
 COUNTING RULE
 Counting Rule to Find Total Outcomes

 If an experiment consists of three steps and if the

first step can result in m outcomes, the second step in
n outcomes, and the third in k outcomes, then
 Total outcomes for the experiment = m · n · k

41
 Example 4-12
 Suppose we toss a coin three times. This
experiment has three steps: the first toss, the
second toss and the third toss. Each step has two
outcomes: a head and a tail. Thus,

 Total outcomes for three tosses of a coin = 2 x 2 x 2 =

8

 The eight outcomes for this experiment are

 HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, and TTT
42
 Example 4-13
 A prospective car buyer can choose
between a fixed and a variable interest
rate and can also choose a payment
period of 36 months, 48 months, or 60
months. How many total outcomes are
possible?

43
 Solution 4-13

Total outcomes = 2 x 3 = 6

44
 Example 4-14
A National Football League team will play 16
games during a regular season. Each game
can result in one of three outcomes: a win, a
lose, or a tie. The total possible outcomes for
16 games are calculated as follows:
Total outcomes = 3·3·3·3·3·3·3·3·3·3·3·3 ·3·3·3·3
= 316 = 43,046,721
One of the 43,046,721 possible outcomes is
all 16 wins.

45
 MARGINAL AND
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
Suppose all 100 employees of a company
were asked whether they are in favor of
or against paying high salaries to CEOs of
U.S. companies. Table 4.3 gives a two
way classification of the responses of
these 100 employees.

46
 Table 4.3 Two-Way Classification of Employee
Responses

In Favor Against
Male 15 45
Female 4 36

47
MARGINAL AND
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
Table 4.4 Two-Way Classification of Employee
Responses with Totals

In Favor Against Total

Male 15 45 60
Female 4 36 40

Total 19 81 100

48
 MARGINAL AND
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
 Definition
 Marginal probability is the
probability of a single event without
consideration of any other event.
Marginal probability is also called
simple probability.

49
 Table 4.5 Listing the Marginal Probabilities

In Favor Against Total

(A ) (B )
P (M ) = 60/100 = .
Male (M ) 15 45 60 60
P (F ) = 40/100 = .
Female (F ) 4 36 40 40

P (A ) = P (B ) = 81/100
Total 19/10019 81
= .81
100
= .19

50
 MARGINAL AND
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
cont.

Read as
“given”
P ( in favor | male)
The event whose This event has
probability is to be already
determined occurred

51
 MARGINAL AND
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
cont.
 Definition
 Conditional probability is the probability
that an event will occur given that another
has already occurred. If A and B are two
events, then the conditional probability A
given B is written as
 P(A|B)
 and read as “the probability of A given that B
has already occurred.”
52
 Example 4-15
 Compute the conditional probability
P ( in favor | male) for the data on
100 employees given in Table 4.4.

53
 Solution 4-15
In Favor Against Total
Male 15 45 60

Males who Total number of

are in favor males

Number of males who are in favor 15

P (in favor | male) = = = .25
Total number of males 60

54
Figure 4.6 We are to find the
Tree Diagram. probability of this
event
le
| Ma
s
This event has vor /60
Fa 15 Required probability
already Aga
inst
occurred 45/
60
| Ma
le
le
Ma 00
/1
60

Fe ale
m F em
40/ ale s|
10
0 avor
F 0
4/4

Ag
ain
st |F
em
36/4 ale
0

55
 Example 4-16
 For the data of Table 4.4, calculate the
conditional probability that a randomly
selected employee is a female given
that this employee is in favor of
paying high salaries to CEOs.

56
 Solution 4-16
In Favor
15 Females who are in favor

4 Total number of employees who are in favor

19

Number of females who are in favor

P (female | in favor) =
Total number of employees who are in favor
4
= = .2105
19
57
Figure 4.7 Tree diagram.

o rs
av
This event has le
| F
Ma / 60
15
already We are to find the
Fem
occurred ale
| Fa probability of this
4/19 vor s
vo
rs
Fa 100
event
/
19

Required probability
Ag t
a ins
81 inst Aga
/10 le |
0 Ma 81
45/

Fem
ale
| Ag
ain
36 / st
81

58
 MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE
EVENTS
 Definition
 Events that cannot occur together are
said to be mutually exclusive
events.

59
 Example 4-17
 Consider the following events for one roll of a
die:
 A= an even number is observed= {2, 4, 6}
 B= an odd number is observed= {1, 3, 5}
 C= a number less than 5 is observed= {1, 2, 3, 4}
 Are events A and B mutually exclusive? Are
events A and C mutually exclusive?

60
 Solution 4-17
Figure 4.8 Mutually exclusive events A and B.

S
A
1 2
5 6

3 4

61
Solution 4-17
Figure 4.9 Mutually nonexclusive events A and C.

62
 Example 4-18
 Consider the following two events for a
randomly selected adult:
 Y = this adult has shopped on the Internet at
least once
 N = this adult has never shopped on the
Internet
 Are events Y and N mutually exclusive?

63
Solution 4-18
Figure 4.10 Mutually exclusive events Y and N.

S
Y N

64
 INDEPENDENT VERSUS
DEPENDENT EVENTS
 Definition
 Two events are said to be independent if the
occurrence of one does not affect the probability
of the occurrence of the other. In other words, A
and B are independent events if
 either P (A | B ) = P (A ) or P (B | A ) = P (B )

65
 Example 4-19
 Refer to the information on 100
employees given in Table 4.4. Are
events “female (F )” and “in favor
(A )” independent?

66
 Solution 4-19
 Events F and A will be independent if
 P (F ) = P (F | A )

Otherwise they will be dependent.
From the information given in Table 4.4
P (F ) = 40/100 = .40
P (F | A ) = 4/19 = .2105
Because these two probabilities are not
equal, the two events are dependent.
67
 Example 4-20
 A box contains a total of 100 CDs that were
manufactured on two machines. Of them, 60 were
manufactured on Machine I. Of the total CDs, 15
are defective. Of the 60 CDs that were
manufactured on Machine I, 9 are defective.
Let D be the event that a randomly selected CD is
defective, and let A be the event that a randomly
selected CD was manufactured on Machine I. Are
events D and A independent?

68
 Solution 4-20
 From the given information,
 P (D ) = 15/100 = .15
P (D | A ) = 9/60 = .15
Hence,
P (D ) = P (D | A )
 Consequently, the two events are
independent.

69
 Table 4.6 Two-Way Classification Table

Defective Good Total

(D ) (G )
Machine I (A ) 9 51 60
Machine II (B ) 6 34 40

Total 15 85 100

70
 Two Important
Observations
 Two events are either mutually
exclusive or independent.
 Mutually exclusive events are always
dependent.
 Independent events are never mutually
exclusive.
 Dependents events may or may not
be mutually exclusive.
71
 COMPLEMENTARY EVENTS
 Definition
 The complement of event A, denoted
by Ā and is read as “A bar” or “A
complement”, is the event that
includes all the outcomes for an
experiment that are not in A.

72
Figure 4.11 Venn diagram of two
complementary events.

A A

73
 Example 4-21
 In a group of 2000 taxpayers, 400 have
been audited by the IRS at least once.
If one taxpayer is randomly selected
from this group, what are the two
complementary events for this
experiment, and what are their
probabilities?

74
 Solution
 The complementary events for this experiment
are
 A = the selected taxpayer has been audited by
the IRS at least once
 Ā = the selected taxpayer has never been
audited by the IRS

 The probabilities of the complementary events

are:
P (A) = 400/2000 = .20

P (Ā) = 1600/2000 = .80

75
Figure 4.12 Venn diagram.

A A

76
 Example 4-22
 In a group of 5000 adults, 3500 are in
favor of stricter gun control laws, 1200 are
against such laws, and 300 have no
opinion. One adult is randomly selected
from this group. Let A be the event that
this adult is in favor of stricter gun control
laws. What is the complementary event of
A? What are the probabilities of the two
events?
77
 Solution 4-22
 The two complementary events are
 A = the selected adult is in favor of stricter gun
control laws
 Ā = the selected adult either is against such
laws or has no opinion

 The probabilities of the complementary

events are:
P (A) = 3500/5000 = .70
P (Ā) = 1500/5000 = .30

78
Figure 4.13 Venn diagram.

A A

79
INTERSECTION OF EVENTS
AND THE MULTIPLICATION
RULE
 Intersection of Events
 Multiplication Rule

80
 Intersection of Events

 Definition
 Let A and B be two events defined in a
sample space. The intersection of A
and B represents the collection of all
outcomes that are common to both A
and B and is denoted by
 A and B
81
Figure 4.14 Intersection of events A and B.

A B

A
and
B

Intersection of A and B

82
 Multiplication Rule

 Definition
 The probability of the intersection of
two events is called their joint
probability. It is written as
 P (A and B ) or P (A ∩ B )

83
 INTERSECTION OF EVENTS
AND THE MULTIPLICATION
RULE
 Multiplication Rule to Find Joint
Probability

 The probability of the intersection of

two events A and B is
 P (A and B ) = P (A )P (B |A )

84
 Example 4-23
 Table 4.7 gives the classification of all
employees of a company given by
gender and college degree.

85
 Table 4.7 Classification of Employees by
Gender and Education

College Not a College Total

Graduate Graduate
(G ) (N )
Male (M ) 7 20 27
Female (F ) 4 9 13
Total 11 29 40

86
 Example 4-23
 If one of these employees is selected
at random for membership on the
employee management committee,
what is the probability that this
employee is a female and a college
graduate?

87
 Solution 4-23
Calculate the intersection of event F and G

P (F and G ) = P (F )P (G |F )
P (F ) = 13/40
P (G |F ) = 4/13
P (F and G ) = (13/40)(4/13) = .100

88
Figure 4.15 Intersection of events F and G.

Females College graduates

Females and college

graduates
89
Figure 4.16 Tree diagram for joint
probabilities.
Male / female Graduates / nongraduates Final outcomes
P(M and G) = (27/40) (20/27) = .175
G|M

7/27

N|M

M
20/27
P(M and N) = (27/40) (20/27) = .500
24/40

F
P(F and G) = (13/40) (4/13) = .100
G|F
13/40
4/13

9/13
N|F P(F and N) = (13/40) (9/13) = .225

90
 Example 4-24
 A box contains 20 DVDs, 4 of which are
defective. If 2 DVDs are selected at
random (without replacement) from
this box, what is the probability that
both are defective?

91
 Solution 4-24
 Let us define the following events for this experiment:
G1 = event that the first DVD selected is good
D1 = event that the first DVD selected is defective
G2 = event that the second DVD selected is good
D2 = event that the second DVD selected is defective

The probability to be calculated is

P (D1 and D2) = P (D1 )P (D2 |D1 )
P (D1) = 4/20
P (D2 |D1) = 3/19
P (D1 and D2) = (4/20)(3/19) = .0316

92
Figure 4.17 Selecting two DVDs.

First selection Second selection Final outcomes

P(G1 and G2) = (16/20) (15/19) = .6316
G2 | G1

15/19

D2 | G1

G1
4/19
P(G1 and D2) = (16/20) (4/19) = .1684
16/20

D1
P(D1 and G2) = (4/20) (16/19) = .1684
G2 | D1
4/20
16/19

D2 | D1
3/19
P(D1 and D2 ) = (4/20) (3/19) = .0316

93
 Multiplication Rule cont.
 Calculating Conditional Probability

 If A and B are two events, then,

P( A and B ) P( A and B )
P( B | A) = and P( A | B) =
P( A) P( B)

 given that P (A ) ≠ 0 and P (B ) ≠ 0.

94
 Example 4-25
 The probability that a randomly selected
student from a college is a senior is .20,
and the joint probability that the student is
a computer science major and a senior is .
03. Find the conditional probability that a
student selected at random is a computer
science major given that he/she is a senior.

95
 Solution 4-25
 Let us define the following two events:
 A = the student selected is a senior
 B = the student selected is a computer science
major
 From the given information,
P (A) = .20 and P (A and B) = .03
 Hence,
P (B | A ) = .03/.20 = .15

96
 Multiplication Rule for
Independent Events
 Multiplication Rule to Calculate the
Probability of Independent Events

 The probability of the intersection of

two independent events A and B is
 P (A and B ) = P (A )P (B )

97
 Example 4-26
 An office building has two fire
detectors. The probability is .02 that
any fire detector of this type will fail to
go off during a fire. Find the probability
that both of these fire detectors will fail
to go off in case of a fire.

98
 Solution 4-26
Let
A = the first fire detector fails to go off
during a fire
B = the second fire detector fails to go
off during a fire
Then, the joint probability of A and B is
P (A and B ) = P (A) P (B ) = (.02)(.02) = .
0004
99
 Example 4-27
 The probability that a patient is allergic to
penicillin is .20. Suppose this drug is
administered to three patients.

a) Find the probability that all three of them are

allergic to it.
b) Find the probability that at least one of the
them is not allergic to it.

100
 Solution
a) Let A, B, and C denote the events the
first, second and third patients,
respectively, are allergic to penicillin.
Hence,

P (A and B and C ) = P (A ) P (B ) P (C )
= (.20) (.20) (.20)
= .008

101
 Solution
b)Let us define the following events:
G = all three patients are allergic
H = at least one patient is not allergic
 P (G ) = P (A and B and C ) = .008
 Therefore, using the complementary
event rule, we obtain
 P (H ) = 1 – P (G )
= 1 - .008 = .992
102
Figure 4.18 Tree diagram for joint
probabilities.
First patient Second patient Third patient Final outcomes
C P(ABC) = .008
.20
B C
.20 .80 P(ABC) = .032

B
C P(ABC) = .032
A .80 .20
.20 C
.80 P(ABC) = .128

C P(ABC) = .032
A
.20
.80 C
B .80 P(ABC) = .128
.20

B
P(ABC) = .128
.80 C
.20
C
.80 P(ABC) = .512

103
 Multiplication Rule for
Independent Events
 Joint Probability of Mutually Exclusive
Events

 The joint probability of two mutually

exclusive events is always zero. If A and
B are two mutually exclusive events, then
 P (A and B ) = 0

104
 Example 4-28
 Consider the following two events for an
application filed by a person to obtain a car
loan:
 A = event that the loan application is approved
 R = event that the loan application is rejected
 What is the joint probability of A and R?

105
 Solution 4-28
 The two events A and R are mutually
exclusive. Either the loan application
will be approved or it will be rejected.
Hence,

P (A and R ) = 0

106
 UNION OF EVENTS AND
THE ADDITION RULE
 Definition
 Let A and B be two events defined in a
sample space. The union of events A
and B is the collection of all outcomes
that belong to either A or B or to both A
and B and is denoted by
 A or B

107
 Example 4-29
 A senior citizen center has 300 members.
Of them, 140 are male, 210 take at least
one medicine on a permanent basis, and
95 are male and take at least one
medicine on a permanent basis. Describe
the union of the events “male” and “take
at least one medicine on a permanent
basis.”

108
 Solution 4-29
 Let us define the following events:
M = a senior citizen is a male
F = a senior citizen is a female
A = a senior citizen takes at least one medicine
B = a senior citizen does not take any medicine

 The union of the events “male” and “take at

least one medicine” includes those senior
citizens who are either male or take at least
one medicine or both. The number of such
senior citizen is
140 + 210 – 95 = 255
109
Table 4.8

A B Total
M 95 45 140
F 115 45 160
Total 210 90 300
Counted twice

110
Figure 4.19 Union of events M and A.

M A

Shaded area gives the union of events M and A,

and includes 255 senior citizen
111
 Multiplication Rule for
Independent Events
 Addition Rule

 Addition Rule to Find the Probability of

Union of Events
 The portability of the union of two
events A and B is
 P (A or B ) = P (A ) + P (B) – P (A and B )

112
 Example 4-30
 A university president has proposed that all students
must take a course in ethics as a requirement for
graduation. Three hundred faculty members and
students from this university were asked about their
opinion on this issue. Table 4.9 gives a two-way
classification of the responses of these faculty
members and students.
 Find the probability that one person selected at
random from these 300 persons is a faculty member
or is in favor of this proposal.

113
 Table 4.9 Two-Way Classification of Responses

Favor Oppose Neutral Total

Faculty 45 15 10 70
Student 90 110 30 230
Total 135 125 40 300

114
 Solution 4-30
Let us define the following events:
A = the person selected is a faculty member
B = the person selected is in favor of the proposal
From the information in the Table 4.9,
P (A ) = 70/300 = .2333
P (B ) = 135/300 = .4500
P (A and B) = P (A) P (B | A ) = (70/300)(45/70) = .
1500
Using the addition rule, we have
P (A or B ) = P (A ) + P (B ) – P (A and B )
= .2333 + .4500 – .1500 = .5333
115
 Example 4-31
 A total of 2500 persons, 1400 are
female, 600 are vegetarian, and 400
are female and vegetarian. What is the
probability that a randomly selected
person from this group is a male or
vegetarian?

116
 Solution 4-31
 Let us define the following events:
 F = the randomly selected person is a female
 M = the randomly selected person is a male

 V = the randomly selected person is a vegetarian

 N = the randomly selected person is a non-

Pvegetarian.
( M or V ) = P( M ) + P (V ) − P( M and V )
1100 600 200
= + −
2500 2500 2500
= .44 + .24 − .08 = .60
117
 Table 4.10 Two-Way Classification Table

Vegetarian (V) Nonvegetarian Total

(N)
Female (F) 400 1000 1400
Male (M) 200 900 1100

Total 600 1900 2500

118
 Addition Rule for Mutually
Exclusive Events
 Addition Rule to Find the Probability of
the Union of Mutually Exclusive
Events
 The probability of the union of two
mutually exclusive events A and B is

 P (A or B ) = P (A ) + P (B )

119
 Example 4-32
 A university president has proposed that all
students must take a course in ethics as a
requirement for graduation. Three hundred
faculty members and students from this
university were asked about their opinion on
this issue. The following table, reproduced
from Table 4.9 in Example 4-30, gives a two-
way classification of the responses of these
faculty members and students.

120
 Table 4.9 Two-Way Classification of Responses

Favor Oppose Neutral Total

Faculty 45 15 10 70
Student 90 110 30 230
Total 135 125 40 300

121
 Example 4-32
 What is the probability that a
randomly selected person from these
300 faculty members and students is
in favor of the proposal or is neutral?

122
Figure 4.20 Venn diagram of mutually
exclusive events.

N
F

123
 Solution 4-32
Let us define the following events:
F = the person selected is in favor of the proposal
N = the person selected is neutral
From the given information,
P (F ) = 135/300 = .4500
P (N ) = 40/300 = .1333
Hence,
P (F or N ) = P (F ) + P (N ) = .4500 + .1333 = .
5833

124
 Example 4-33
 Consider the experiment of rolling a
die twice. Find the probability that the
sum of the numbers obtained on two
rolls is 5, 7, or 10.

125
 Table 4.11 Two Rolls of a Die

Second Roll of the Die

1 2 3 4 5 6
First 1 (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)
Roll of
the Die 2 (2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)

3 (3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)

4 (4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)

5 (5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)

126
 Solution 4-33
P (sum is 5 or 7 or 10)
= P (sum is 5) + P (sum is 7) + P (sum
is 10)
= 4/36 + 6/36 + 3/36
= 13/36
= .3611

127
 Example 4-34
The probability that a person is in favor
of genetic engineering is .55 and that a
person is against it is .45. Two persons
are randomly selected, and it is observed
whether they favor or oppose genetic
engineering.
a) Draw a tree diagram for this experiment
b) Find the probability that at least one of the
two persons favors genetic engineering.

128
 Solution 4-34
a) Let
F = a person is in favor of genetic
engineering
A = a person is against genetic engineering

The tree diagram in Figure 4.21 shows these

four outcomes and their probabilities.

129
Figure 4.21 Tree diagram.
First person Second person Final outcomes and their
probabilities

P(FF) = (.55) (.55) = .3025

F
.55

A
F .45
.55 P(FA) = (.55) (.45) = .2475
.55

A P(AF) = (.45) (.55) = .2475

.45 F
.55

A
.45
P(AA) = (.45) (.45) = .2025

130
 Solution
b) P ( at least one person favors)
= P (FF or FA or AF )
= P (FF ) + P (FA ) + P (AF )
= .3025 + .2475 + .2475
= .7975

131