Water Resources

Our Water
Resources
Resources and Man

The Malthusian trap
The kinds of resources
renewable resources
Nonrenewable resources
Potentially renewable resources
The nature of exhaustibility
Food is the most

basic of all
our needs
SELFACTUALIZATION
ESTEEM
SOCIAL
SECURITY
PHYSIOLOGICAL
MASLOWS HIERARCHY OF NEEDS
Thomas Malthus (1766-1834)

In An Essay on the Principles of
Population, published in 1798, Thomas
Malthus argued that while population
increases in geometric
progression, the
resources to sustain this
growth do not. Thus, if
population grows too
much faster than food
production, this growth
is checked by famine,
disease, and war.
Thomas Malthus
5000
4000
3000
The sustainable levels for

Isle Royale inhabitants
2000
1000
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
50
40
30
20
10
0
2000
Wolf population
Moose population
This should ordinarily signal disaster. Take

the case of wolves and moose at Isle Royale
National Park, Lake Superior, for instance.
Relative to the 1820 level
Worlds population, a little over a billion at the time of Malthus,

has multiplied about six-fold since then.
Measured in inflation-adjusted dollars, worlds total output, now
about $40 trillion, was about $700 billion at the time of Malthus.
Clearly, economic growth has been more strongly exponential
than that of the demand (population growth) that created it.
45
Economy
30
Population
15
0
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
Source: A. Maddison, Monitoring the World Economy 1820-1992 (OECD, Paris, 1995).
World Population
V a lu e s re la tiv e to 1 9 5 0 Gross World Product
World Grain Output

2
3
The growth in
worlds grain output
has been faster than
population but
world economy has
growth even faster.
Gross World Product
World Grain Production
0
1950
World Population
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Adam Smith (1723-1790),

the British philosopher and economist,
argued, in his celebrated treatise An
Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the
Wealth of Nations (1776),
that every individual in
pursuing his or her own
good is led, as if by an
invisible hand, to
achieve the best good
for all. Therefore any
interference with free
competition by the
government is almost
certain to be injurious.
First Green Revolution in this century

took place in developed countries
during 1950-70.
First Green Revolution
Second Green Revolution has

occurred in developing countries
since mid-1960s.
First Green Revolution
Second Green Revolution
2.0
400
1.5
300
1.0
200
0.5
1940
1960
1980
100
2000
Per C apita Grain Availability (kg per year)
World Grain Production (billion tons per year)
Despite the tremendous strides in world grain production, per capita grain availability has remained
unchanged since the mid-1970s*.
*Lester R. Brown: Facing the Prospect of Food Scarcity in STATE OF THE WORLD 1997 (Worldwatch Institute, 1997)
Currently,
the annual food production
world-wide, including grains,
poultry, seafood and meat,
is about 4 billion tons per year, or
about 4 lbs per person per day.
But per capita food consumption

varies, worldwide,
from ~1500 lbs
per year in
America, to
~1000 lbs per year
in Mediterranean/
Middle East region, and
about 500 lbs per year in
India and South Asia.
30
Mean Annual Temperature (
C)
Tropical Forest
Farmland
Deciduous Forest
15
(seasonal loss of leaves)
Being largely
Coniferous Forest
(green year-round)
stenohumid
as well as
stenothermal,
0
agricultural
Arctic and alpine
treeless areas
crops impose
0
100
200
300
400
a rather
Mean annual precipitation (cm)
restricted
range of climatic conditions. Farmland therefore tends
to be in short supply.
Most
of the
Earth
is
covered
by water
Land
(29%)
Oceans
(71%)
...water, water, every where

nor any drop to drink!
But the supply of land too is limited...

In use
Oceans
(71%)
Land
(29%)
Potential
farming
8%
Tropical
forests
Cultivated Grazed
11%
10%
14%
Forests,
semi-arid
6% Arid
Ice, snow, deserts,

mountains (51%)
and
barely
a fifth of it
is available for
farming related activities.
Unusable
Potential
grazing
Economic growth exacerbates

the demand for water, e.g.,
with economic growth at 7-10% per year, poultry
consumption is rising at the rate of 15% per year in
India, Indonesia and China the water demands of
this nontraditional industry are only likely to grow;
we need about 250,000 gallons of water to produce
a ton of corn, 375,000 gallons to produce a ton of
wheat, 1,000,000 gallons to produce a ton of rice,
and 7,500,000 of water to produce a ton of beef.
to which we should also add industrys needs.
U.S.A.
Public (6%)
Farming (41%)
China
Industry
(7%)
Public
(10%)
Industry
(11%)
PowerPlant (38%)
Farming (85%)
PowerPlant (2%)
this comparison of U.S. and China shows how

economic growth necessitates increased use of
Source: Worldwatch Institute
water for nonagricultural purposes.
How much
water do
we have?
The hydrological cycle

Ignoring such long-term effects as the
changes in atmospheric storage conditions,
run-off filling the ocean basins etc., hydrological
cycle is
merely
the recycling
of water
between
land and
oceans.
http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/guides/mtr/hyd/smry.rxml
How much water in the hydrosphere?

Conventional estimate assumes
a total groundwater storage of about
1,700 quadrillion gallons. This gives
the estimate of hydrospheres total
water content as 3.5x1020 gallons.
Underground water (0.5%)

Surface water (0.02%)
Atmospheric
moisture (0.001%)
Oceans (97%)
Ice (1.2%)
An alternate assumption is that pores in sediments contain

about 80,000 quadrillion gallons of groundwater (almost 50
times the conventional estimate). This yields an estimate of
about 4x1020 gallons of water in the
Ice (1%)
entire hydroshere.
Surface water (0.002%)
Atmosphere
(0.001%)
Groundwater (19%)
Oceans (80%)
Groundwater (19%)
As is evident from the comparison of water use in

the U.S. and China, economic growth necessitates
increasing use of water for power generation.
U.S.A.
Public (6%)
Farming (41%)
China
Industry
(7%)
Public
(10%)
Industry
(11%)
PowerPlant (38%)
Source: Worldwatch Institute
Farming (85%)
PowerPlant (2%)
Global mean temperature change

through the past century
Temperature Change (C)
0.6
0.3
0.0
- 0.3
5-year
running
average
- 0.6
Source: NOAA and NASA
1900
1950
2000
Sea level relative to 1951-70 (cm )
The global mean sea-level rise

through last century
8
-4
5-year
running
average
-8
-12
1900
1950
2000
Source: T.P. Barnett, in CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC Working Group Report: Cambridge University Press, 1990)
T (oC)
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
Depth (m)
100
200
300
400
The 1950-91 hydrographic

data off California coast
show that
sea surface waters (0-100m) became
~0.8oC warmer in the 35-year period
between
1950-56
and 1985-91;
Distance
off California
coastwhich
(km)
500
400
300
200
raised the sea level surface by 3.1+0.7 cm.

Note: Warming by 1oC the top 100
m of ocean with 15oC temperature
and 3.4% salinity should raise the
sea level by ~2.2 cm.
Source: D. Roemmich, SCIENCE: v. 257, p.
373-375 (July 17, 1992).
0
100
95
1985-91
90
1950-56
85
80
Steric height (dynamic cm)
500
100
Sea surface off California has risen by

about 2 cm, on average,
between 1950 and 1991
100
95
19851991
90
85
80
500
19501956
400
300
200
100
Distance off California coast (km)
Dean Roemmich:
Ocean warming and sea
level rise along the
southwest U.S. coast
[Science: 257 ( 373-375),
1992]
The availability of water too is a limiting factor. An average human needs

about 300,000 gallons of water annually, including 250,000 gallons for
growing food. Indeed, nations with under 150,000 gallons of annual per
capita water supply face severe limits to their growth.
Mass of the present hydrosphere

Considering all sediments*
Conventional estimates
Total mass Share of the

Total mass Share of the
(trillion tons) hydrosphere (trillion tons) hydrosphere
Oceans
Pore water in the
sediments
Ice-caps, glaciers
Rivers, lakes
Atmospheric
moisture
1,370,000 80%
Total hydrosphere
1,720,313 100%
330,000 18.8%
20,000 1.2%
300 0.02%
13 0.0008%
1,370,000 97%
7,000 0.5%
20,000 1.4%
300 0.02%
13 0.0009%
1,397,313 100%
*Karl K. Turekian: GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE (Prentice Hall, 1996)
Seafood is an important source of

animal protein worldwide,
nonetheless.
World fish harvest:

Annual fish harvest (million tons)
Note that Indian Ocean has the least yield.

Area
Volume
(106 km2) (106 km3)
Pacific Ocean 165.2
707.6
Atlantic Ocean
82.4
323.6
Indian Ocean
73.4
291.0
Primary production (gC/m2/yr)
World fish production*
Oceanic
50
Coastal
100
Upwelling 300
Average
number of
trophic
Ocean area steps
(km2)
325x106 (90%)
5
36x106 (9.9%)
3
36x104 (0.1%)
15
* J.H. Ryther: Science, 166 (1969): 72-76
Net transfer
efficiency
0.0001
0.033
1.1
Total
fish production
(tons/yr)
1.63x106 (<1%)
120 x106 (~50%)
120x106 (~50%)
Even the
maximum
possible
yield from
worlds
oceans
can hardly
suffice.
Annual fish harvests

of the leading
nations.
Seafood is already a major source of animal

protein in the Asian diet.
That Climate Thing

Global warming and its
consequences
The anthropogenic
contributions
Cummulative Number of Events per Year
U.S. 20th Century Natural Disaster Fatality-Frequency Plots*

10
Floods
Tornadoes
Hurricanes
Earthquakes
Floods
Tornadoes
Hurricanes
0.3
0.1
Earthquakes
0.03
0.01
10
30
100
300
1,000
3,000
10,000
Number of Fatalities per Event

* S.P. Nishenko and C.C. Barton: Scaling Laws for Natural Disaster Fatalities in REDUCTION AND PREDICTABILITY
OF NATURAL DISASTERS (Eds: Rundle, Turcotte and Klein) (Addison-Wesley, 1996)
Disasters*
by type: 1971-96
High wind: 21%
Man-made
disasters: 34%
Total: 8,219,000
Flood: 19%
Other natural
disasters: 21%
Volcanoes: 1%
Landslides: 3%
Earthquake: 8%
Drought & Famine: 6%
* International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (The Economist, Sept 6, 1997)
Global mean temperature

change through last
century
Temperature Change (oC)
0.6
0.3
0.0
1950-60 Mean level
- 0.3
- 0.6
5-year running
average
1900
1950
Source: Thomas Karl and C. Bruce Baker: GLOBAL WARMING UPDATE (NCDC-NOAA, 1994)
2000
Sea level relative to 1951-70 (cm )
The global mean sealevel rise through last

century
Mean 1951-1970 level
-4
5-year running
average
-8
-12
1900
1950
2000
Source: T.P. Barnett, in CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC Working Group Report: Cambridge University Press, 1990)
Winter conditions in Eastern Europe through the

past millenium, based on manuscript records*
0.8
Little Ice Age
o
T ( C)
0.4
-0.4
-0.8
800
1000
1200
1400
* J. Imbrie & K.P. Imbrie: ICE AGES (Enslow Publishers, 1979)
1600
1800
2000
T (oC)
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
Depth (m)
100
200
300
The 1950-91 hydrographic data

off California coast show that
the sea surface waters (0-100m)
became ~0.8oC warmer in the 35-year
period between 1950-56 and 1985-91;
which
400
Distance off California coast (km)

500
400
300
200
raised the sea level surface by 3.1+0.7 cm.

Note: Warming by 1oC the top 100
m of ocean with 15oC temperature
and 3.4% salinity should raise the
sea level by ~2.2 cm.
Source: D. Roemmich, SCIENCE: v. 257, p.
373-375 (July 17, 1992).
0
100
95
1985-91
90
1950-56
85
80
500
100
Global warming will hurt the

poor nations most!
20%
0%
- 20%
- 40%
- 60%
Change in average national crop yield by the

year 2,060 compared to yield corresponding to no change in climate
(based on the ocean-atmosphere coupling model) - SCIENCE NEWS, Aug 1992
Evaporation
320,000 km3
Precipitation
285,000 km3
Precipitation
95,000 km3
Evaporation
60,000 km3
Run-off
35,000 km3
Ocean Storage
1,370,000,000 km3
The Hydrological Cycle
diversions (billion m3/yr)
Flow of Colorado River below all major dams and
40
Colorado River
United States
30
Mexico
20
10
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Sandra Postel: Forging a Sustainable Water Strategy (STATE OF THE WORLD 1996: Worldwatch Institute , 1996)
Stream Flow into Aral Sea (billion m3/year)
Drying of the Aral Sea

80
Aral Sea
60
40
20
0
1940
1960
1980
2000
Sandra Postel: Forging a Sustainable Water Strategy (STATE OF THE WORLD 1996: Worldwatch Institute , 1996)
A century of human induced sea level rise*

Removable volume
(in 1012 m3)
North America
High plains
Southwest
California
Africa and Asia
Sahara
Sahel (soil water)
Arabia
Aral (Sea: 1960)
Aral (groundwater)
Caspian (Sea)
Caspian (groundwater)
Worldwide
Deforestation
Wetland reduction
Dams
Total
Extraction rate
(in 1010 m3/yr)
Sea-level rise Estimated sea-level

rate (mm/yr) change to date (mm)
4.0
3.0
10.0
1.20
1.00
1.30
0.03
0.03
0.04
1.10
0.92
1.20
600.0
0.1
500.0
1.1
2.2
56.0
220.0
1.00
0.34
1.60
2.70
3.70
0.77
0.47
0.03
0.01
0.04
0.08
0.10
0.02
0.01
0.56
0.28
0.89
2.20
3.10
1.30
0.78
3.3
8.6
-1.9
4.90
0.20
-
0.14
0.01
-
3.40
1.30
-5.20
1406.7
19.20
0.54
11.80
* Walter Newman and Rhodes Fairbridge: The Management of Sea-level Rise (NATURE, v. 320, p. 319-328, 1986).
Dork Sahagian, Frank Schwartz and David Jacobs: Direct Anthropogenic Contributions to Sea-level Rise in the
Twentieth Century (NATURE: v. 367, p. 54-57, 1994).
The 1900-94 trends reveal a

general tendency towards
greater precipitation
(a) at higher latitudes and (b) on
land
Change in
precipitation
(1900-94)
20%
0%
-20%
Thomas Karl, Neville Nicholls & Jonathan Gregory:

THE COMING CLIMATE, Scientific American, May 1997
Comparing
the
1900-94
precipitation change with (a)
latitude and (b) land area
Precipitation Change (%, 1900-94)
Latitude
- 10
10
20
40oN
0o
40oS
-1
Land, as % of Global Surface Area
Evaporation
60,000 km3
Evaporation
320,000 km3
Precipitation
95,000 km3
Precipitation
285,000 km3
Ocean Storage
1,370,000,000 km3
Run-off
35,000 km3
The Hydrological Cycle
In summary,
Human ingenuity has defied the Malthusian
Trap, that the power of population exceeds
that of the earth.
This has resulted in modifying the most basic
of natures processes - the hydrological cycle.
Perhaps technology defies the Gandhian
dictum, that nature has enough for our need,
but not for our greed.

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Our Water

Resources and Man

The nature of exhaustibility

Food is the most

Thomas Malthus (1766-1834)

The sustainable levels for

This should ordinarily signal disaster. Take

Relative to the 1820 level

Worlds population, a little over a billion at the time of Malthus,

V a lu e s re la tiv e to 1 9 5 0 Gross World Product

World Grain Output

World Grain Production

Adam Smith (1723-1790),

First Green Revolution in this century

First Green Revolution

Second Green Revolution has

First Green Revolution

Second Green Revolution

Per C apita Grain Availability (kg per year)

World Grain Production (billion tons per year)

But per capita food consumption

Mean Annual Temperature (

(seasonal loss of leaves)

...water, water, every where

But the supply of land too is limited...

Ice, snow, deserts,

Economic growth exacerbates

to which we should also add industrys needs.

this comparison of U.S. and China shows how

The hydrological cycle

How much water in the hydrosphere?

Underground water (0.5%)

An alternate assumption is that pores in sediments contain

As is evident from the comparison of water use in

Global mean temperature change

Sea level relative to 1951-70 (cm )

The global mean sea-level rise

The 1950-91 hydrographic

raised the sea level surface by 3.1+0.7 cm.

Steric height (dynamic cm)

Sea surface off California has risen by

Distance off California coast (km)

The availability of water too is a limiting factor. An average human needs

Mass of the present hydrosphere

Total mass Share of the

*Karl K. Turekian: GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE (Prentice Hall, 1996)

Seafood is an important source of

World fish harvest:

Note that Indian Ocean has the least yield.

Primary production (gC/m2/yr)

World fish production*

* J.H. Ryther: Science, 166 (1969): 72-76

Annual fish harvests

Seafood is already a major source of animal

That Climate Thing

Cummulative Number of Events per Year

U.S. 20th Century Natural Disaster Fatality-Frequency Plots*

Number of Fatalities per Event

High wind: 21%