HDM-4 Calibration

Henry Kerali
Lead Transport Specialist
The World Bank
 How Credible are HDM-4 Outputs?

Depends on Level of Calibration (controls bias)

Depends on accuracy and reliability of input data
(asset & fleet characteristics, conditions, usage)
HDM-4 has proved suitable in a range of
countries
As with any model, need to carefully check output
with good judgement
 Approach to Calibration

Input data
Must have a correct interpretation of the input data
requirements
Have a quality of input data appropriate for the desired
reliability of results
Calibration
Adjust model parameters to enhance the accuracy of
its representation of local conditions

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Bituminous Road Deterioration ..
 Data & Calibration

Need to appreciate importance of data over

calibration
If input data are wrong why worry about
calibration?

Calibration

'The Depth of the Sea and

Data
the Height of the Waves'
 Calibration Focus

Pavement Deterioration & Works Effects

Reflect local pavement deterioration rates and
sensitivity to factors
Represent maintenance effects
Road User Effects
Predict the correct magnitude of costs and relativity of
components - data
Predict sensitivity to changing conditions - calibration

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 Estimating Calibration Coefficients

Model

Defect (%)
Extent of
We attept to
minimise the
"mistake"

Actual
deterioration

Time

Un-calibrated Calibrated

Progression
Predicted
Progression
Predicted

Actual Progression Actual Progression

 Important Considerations

Calibrate over full range of values likely to be

encountered
Have sufficient data to detect the nature of bias
and level of precision
High correlation (r 2) does not always mean high
accuracy: can still have significant bias
Primary aim: minimize bias

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 Calibration: Hierarchy of Effort

Time Re quire d

Experimental
Ye ars
Surveys and
Research

M onths
Field Surveys

We e ks
Desk Studies

Re source s
Limite d M ode rate Significant Re quire d

General Planning Project A ppraisal Research and

Quick Prioritisation Detailed Feasibility Development
Preliminary Screening

Coarse Estimates Reliable Estimates

 Calibration Levels

Level 1: Basic Application

Addresses most critical parameters
Desk Study
Level 2: Verification
Measures key parameters
Conducts limited field surveys
Level 3: Adaptation
Major field surveys to requantify relationships
Long-term monitoring
 Level 1 - Application

Required for ALL HDM analyses

Once-off set-up investment for the model
Mainly based on secondary sources
Assumes most of HDM default values are
appropriate

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 Level 2 - Verification

Make measurements to verify and adjust

predictions to local conditions
Requires moderate data collection and moderate
precision
Adjustments entered as input data, typically no
software changes

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 Level 3 - Adaptation

Comprises:
Structured research, medium term
Advanced data collection, long-term
Evaluates trends and interactions by observing
performance over long time period
May lead to alternative locally derived
relationships/models

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 Sensitivity Classes

Impact Sensitivity Class Impact Elasticity

High S-I > 0.50

Medium S-II 0.20 0.50

Low S-III 0.05 0.20

Negligible S-IV < 0.05

Sensitivity Impact Parameter Important for Parameter Important for
2/ 3/ 4/
Class Elasticity Total VOC VOC Savings
S-I > 0.50 kp - parts model exponent kp - parts model exponent
New Vehicle Price New Vehicle Price
CSPQI - parts model
roughness term
C0SP - parts model constant
term
S-II 0.20 - 0.50 Roughness E0 - speed bias correction
E0 - speed bias correction ARVMAX - max. rectified
Average Service Life Average velocity
Annual Utilisation CLPC - labour model exponent
Vehicle Weight
S-III 0.05 - 0.20 Aerodynamic Drag Coefficient Beta - speed exponent
Beta - speed exponent Vehicle Age in km
BW - speed width effect C0LH - labour model constant
Calibrated Engine Speed term
CLPC - labour model exponent Labour Cost
C0SP - parts model constant Hourly Utilisation Ratio
term BW - speed width effects
CSPQI - parts model Number of tires per Vehicle
roughness term New tire Cost
Crew/Cargo/Passenger Cost Lubricants Cost
Desired Speed Crew/Cargo/Passenger Cost
Driving Power Vehicle Weight
Energy Efficiency Factors Number of Passengers
Fuel Cost
Hourly Utilisation Ratio
Interest Rate
Projected Frontal Area
S-IV <0.05 All Other Variables All Other Variables 21
Sensitivity Impact Parameter Outcomes Most Impacted
Class Elasticity Pavement Resurfacing Economic
Performance and Surface Return on
Distress Maintenance
S-I > 0.50 Structural Number 2/
Modified Structural Number2/
Traffic Volume
Deflection3/
Roughness
S-II 0.20 - Annual Loading
0.50 Age
All cracking area
Wide cracking area
Roughness-environment factor
Cracking initiation factor
Cracking progression factor
S-III 0.05 - Subgrade CBR (with SN)
0.20 Surface thickness (with SN)
Heavy axles volume
Potholing area
Rut depth mean
Rut depth standard deviation
Rut depth progression factor
Roughness general factor
S-IV < 0.05 Deflection (with SNC)
Subgrade compaction
Rainfall (with Kge)
Ravelling area
Ravelling factor 22
 Can We Believe HDM-4 Output?

Yes, if sufficiently calibrated

HDM-4 has proved suitable in a range of
countries
As with any model, need to carefully scrutinize
output against judgement
If unexpected predictions occur, check:
Data used
Calibration extent
Check judgment of the expert

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 Time Spend on HDM-4 Analyses

Model
Calibration
10%

Establishing
Verification of
Reliable Input Running HDM-4
Output
Data 10%
20%
40%
Treatments,
Triggers and
Resets
20%
 Can We Believe HDM-4 Output?

Yes, if sufficiently calibrated

HDM-4 has proved suitable in a range of
countries
As with any model, need to carefully scrutinize
output against judgement
If unexpected predictions occur, check:
Data used
Calibration extent
Check judgment of the expert

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 For Further Information

A guide to calibration and

adaptation
Reports on various HDM
calibrations from:
www.lpcb.org
Discussions