FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

( Establishing the value

benchmark )

Prof. Seema Chakrabarti

 Suggested Steps for Company
Analysis
 Strategy Analysis

 Accounting Analysis

 Financial Analysis

 SWOT Analysis

 Going beyond the numbers

 Estimation of intrinsic value

 Relative Valuation
 Strategy Analysis
 Competitive Strategy

 Corporate Strategy
 Accounting Analysis
 Quality check for Financial Statements can be
conducted through checking for:

 Adequate disclosure of information

 Noise & Bias in accounting

 Forecasting errors in accounting

 Financial Analysis
 Investment analysts usually analyze historical
data for making an estimate of:

 Earnings (and dividends)

 Growth

 Risk

 Valuation
 FINANCIALS OF HORIZON LTD
20X1 20X2 20X3 20X4 20X5 20X6 20X7
 Net Sales 475 542 605 623 701 771 840
 Cost of goods sold 352 380 444 475 552 580 638
 Gross profit 123 162 161 148 149 191 202
 Operating expenses 35 41 44 49 60 60 74
 Operating profit 88 121 117 99 89 131 128
 Non-operating surplus/deficit 4 7 9 6 - -7 2
 Profit before interest and tax 92 128 126 105 89 124 130
(PBIT)
 Interest 20 21 25 22 21 24 25
 Profit before tax 72 107 101 83 68 100 105
 Tax 30 44 42 41 34 40 35
 Profit after tax 42 63 59 42 34 60 70
 Dividend 20 23 23 27 28 30 30
 Retained earnings 22 40 36 15 6 30 40
 Equity share capital 100 100 150 150 150 150 150
 Reserves and surplus 65 105 91 106 112 142 182
 Shareholders’ funds 165 205 241 256 262 292 332
 Loan funds 150 161 157 156 212 228 221
 Capital employed 315 366 398 412 474 520 553
 Net fixed assets 252 283 304 322 330 390 408
 Investments 18 17 16 15 15 20 25
 Net current assets 45 66 78 75 129 110 120
 Total assets 315 366 398 412 474 520 553
 Earnings per share 2.27 4.00 4.67
 Market price per share 21.00 26.50 29.10 31.5
(End of the year)
 EARNINGS AND DIVIDEND LEVEL

To assess the earnings and dividend level, investment

analysts look at metrics like:

• Return on equity

• Book value per share

• EPS

• Dividend payout ratio

• Dividend per share

 ROE : 3 FACTORS
PAT SALES ASSETS
ROE = x x
SALES ASSETS EQUITY

NET PROFIT ASSET LEVERAGE

MARGIN TURNOVER
THE BREAK-UP OF THE RETURN ON EQUITY IN TERMS OF ITS
DETERMINANTS FOR THE PERIOD 20X5 – 20X7 FOR HORIZON
LIMITED IS GIVEN BELOW:

Return on equity = Net profit margin x Asset turnover x Leverage multiplier

20X5 13.0 % = 4.85% x 1.48 x 1.81
20X6 20.5% = 7.78% x 1.48 x 1.78
20X7 21.1% = 8.33% x 1.52 x 1.67

INVESTMENT ANALYSTS USE ONE MORE FORMULATION OF THE ROE

WHEREIN IT IS ANALYSED IN TERMS OF FIVE FACTORS :

PBIT SALESPROFIT BEFORE TAX PROFIT AFTER TAX ASSETS

ROE = X X X X
SALES ASSETS PBIT PROFIT BEFORE TAX NETWORTH
 ROE : 5 FACTORS
PBIT SALES PBT PAT ASSETS
ROE = x x x x
SALES ASSETS PBIT PBT NET WORTH

ROE = PBIT EFFICIENCY X ASSET TURNOVER X INTEREST BURDEN X

TAX BURDEN X LEVERAGE
THE ROE BREAK-UP FOR OMEGA COMPANY IS GIVEN BELOW :

ROE = PBIT efficiency x Asset turnover x Interest burden x Tax burden x

Leverage
20X5 13.0% = 12.70% x 1.48 x 0.764 x 0.50 x 1.81
20X6 20.5% = 16.08% x 1.48 x 0.81 x 0.60 x 1.78
20X7 21.1% = 15.48% x 1.52 x 0.81 x 0.67 x 1.67
 Book Value Per Share (BVPS)
Paid-up equity capital + Reserves and surplus
Number of equity shares
20 x 5 20 x 6 20 x 7
BVPS 262/15 = 17.47 292/15 = 19.47 332/15 = 22.13

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Equity earnings
Number of equity shares
20 x 5 20 x 6 20 x 7
EPS 34/15 = 2.27 60/15 = 4.00 70/15 = 4.67
 Dividend Payout Ratio

Equity dividends
Equity earnings
20 x 5 20 x 6 20 x 7
Dividend
Payout ratio 28/34 = 0.82 30/60 = 0.50 30/70 = 0.43

Dividend Per Share (DPS)

20 x 5 20 x 6 20 x 7
DPS Rs 1.87 2.00 2.00
 GROWTH PERFORMANCE

• To measure the historical growth, the compound annual

growth rate (CAGR) in variables like sales, net profit,
earnings per share and dividend per share is calculated.

• To get a handle over the kind of growth that can be

maintained, the sustainable growth rate is calculated.
 COMPOUND ANNUAL GROWTH RATE (CAGR)
The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of sales,
earnings per share, and dividend per share for a period of
five years 20x2 – 20x7 for Horizon Limited is calculated
below:
Sales of 20 x 7 1/ 5
840 1/ 5

CAGR of Sales : –1= – 1 = 9.2%

Sales for 20 x 2 542

CAGR of earnings EPS for 20 x 7 1/ 5

–1 = 7.00 1/ 5
–1 = 2.1%
per share (EPS) : EPS for 20 x 2 6.30

CAGR of dividend : DPS for 20 x 7 1/ 5

–1 = 3.00
1/ 5
–1 = 5.5%
per share (DPS) DPS for 20 x 2 2.30
 SUSTAINABLE GROWTH RATE

The sustainable growth rate is defined as :

Sustainable growth rate=Retention ratio x Return on equity

Based on the average retention ratio and the average

return on equity of the three year period (20x5 – 20x7) the
sustainable growth rate of Horizon Limited is:

Sustainable growth rate = 0.417 x 18.2% = 7.58%

 RISK EXPOSURE

Beta

Beta represents volatility relative to the market

Volatility of Return on equity

Range of return on Equity over n years

Average return on equity over n years
 VALUATION MULTIPLES
The most commonly used valuation multiples are :

Price to Earnings (PE) ratio

Price to Book Value (PBV) ratio

 Price to Cash Flow Ratio

 Price to sales Ratio

 VALUATION MULTIPLES
PE Ratio (Prospective)
Price per share at the beginning of year n
Earnings per share for year n
20 x 5 20 x 6 20 x 7
PE ratio 9.25 6.63 6.23

PBV Ratio (Retrospective)

Price per share at the end of year n
Book value per share at the end of year n
20 x 5 20 x 6 20 x 7
PBV ratio 1.52 1.49 1.42
 FAVOURABLE & UNFAVOURABLE
FACTORS

FAVOURABLE UNFAVOURABLE
FACTORS FACTORS
EARNINGS LEVEL • HIGH BOOK VALUE PER • LOW BOOK
VALUE
SHARE PER SHARE
GROWTH LEVEL • HIGH RETURN ON • LOW RETURN ON
EQUITY EQUITY
• HIGH CAGR IN SALES • LOW CAGR IN SALES
AND EPS AND EPS
• HIGH SUSTAINABLE • LOW SUSTAINABLE
GROWTH RATE GROWTH RATE
RISK EXPOSURE • LOW VOLATILITY OF • HIGH VOLATILITY OF
RETURN ON EQUITY RETURN ON EQUITY
• LOW BETA • HIGH BETA
 SWOT Analysis
 Examination of a firm’s:
 Strengths

 Weaknesses

 Opportunities

 Threats
 GOING BEYOND THE NUMBERS
• SIZING UP THE PRESENT SITUATION AND PROSPECTS
• Availability and Cost of Inputs
• Order Position
• Regulatory Framework
• Technological and Production Capabilities
• Marketing and Distribution
• Finance and Accounting
• Human Resources and Personnel

• EVALUATION OF MANAGEMENT
• Strategy
• Calibre, Integrity, Dynamism
• Organisational Structure
• Execution Capability
• Investor - friendliness
 Estimating Intrinsic Value
A) Present value of cash flows (PVCF)
 Present value of dividends (DDM)
 Present value of Free cash flow to equity
holders (FCFE)
 Present value of free cash flow to firm (FCFF)
B) Earnings Multiplier Approach
C) Measures of Value Added
 Calculating
Free Cash Flow to Equity

FCFE =
Net Income (EAT)
+ Depreciation Expense
- Capital Expenditures
-  in Working Capital
- Principal Debt Repayments
+ New Debt Issues
 Calculating
Free Cash Flow to Equity
When the firm maintains a fixed debt equity ratio:

FCFE = Net Income

– (1-d) * (Capital Expenditures - Depreciation)
- (1-d) * ( in Working Capital )
 Present Value of
Free Cash Flow to Equity

FCFE1
Value 
k  g FCFE
where,
FCFE1 = the expected free cash flow in period 1
i.e FCFE (1+g)
k = the required rate of return on equity for the firm
gFCFE = the expected constant growth rate of free cash
flow to equity for the firm
 Present Value of
Free Cash Flow to Equity
 Two Stage Model:

=PV of FCFE discounted@reqd rate of retn. + PV of

terminal Value
Where,
PV of terminal Value
= 1/(1+r)n*FCFE in n+1 year / r - gL (in long run)
Also,
FCFE in n+1 year = FCFE in nth year * (1 + gL i.e growth rate
in long run)
N = Number of years of supernormal growth
Operating Free Cash Flow to the Firm
Discount the firm’s operating free cash flow to
the firm (FCFF) at the firm’s weighted average
cost of capital (WACC) rather than its cost of
equity

FCFF = EBIT (1-Tax Rate)

+ Depreciation Expense
- Capital Spending
-  in Working Capital
-  in other assets
 Present Value of
Operating Free Cash Flow

FCFF1
Firm Value 
WACC  g FCFF

where,
FCFF1 = the free cash flow in period 1
WACC = the firm’s weighted average cost of capital
gFCFF = the firm’s constant growth rate of free cash flow
 DIVIDEND DISCOUNT MODEL
• SINGLE PERIOD VALUATION MODEL
D1 P1
P0 = +
(1+r) (1+r)
• MULTI - PERIOD VALUATION MODEL ( Infinite Duration)
 Dt
P0 = 
t=1 (1+r)t
• ZERO GROWTH MODEL
D
P0 =
r
• CONSTANT GROWTH MODEL
D1
P0 =
 TWO - STAGE GROWTH MODEL

1 - 1+g1 n
1+r Pn
P0 = D1 +
r - g1 (1+r)n
WHERE
Pn D1 (1+g1)n-1 (1+g2) 1
=
(1+r)n r - g2 (1+r)n
TWO - STAGE GROWTH MODEL : EXAMPLE
EXAMPLE THE CURRENT DIVIDEND ON AN EQUITY SHARE OF
VERTIGO LIMITED IS RS.2.00. VERTIGO IS EXPECTED TO ENJOY AN
ABOVE-NORMAL GROWTH RATE OF 20 PERCENT FOR A PERIOD OF 6
YEARS. THEREAFTER THE GROWTH RATE WILL FALL AND STABILISE
AT 10 PERCENT. EQUITY INVESTORS REQUIRE A RETURN OF 15
PERCENT. WHAT IS THE INTRINSIC VALUE OF THE EQUITY SHARE OF
VERTIGO ?
THE INPUTS REQUIRED FOR APPLYING THE TWO-STAGE MODEL ARE :
g1 = 20 PERCENT
g2 = 10 PERCENT
n = 6 YEARS
r = 15 YEARS
D1 = D0 (1+g1) = RS.2(1.20) = 2.40

PLUGGING THESE INPUTS IN THE TWO-STAGE MODEL, WE GET THE

INTRINSIC VALUE ESTIMATE AS FOLLOWS :

6
1.20
1 -
1.15 2.40 (1.20)5 (1.10) 1
P0 = 2.40 +
.15 - .20 .15 - .10 (1.15)6

1 - 1.291 2.40 (2.488)(1.10)

= 2.40 + [0.497]
-0.05 .05

= 13.968 + 65.289
= RS.79.597
 H MODEL

ga
gn

H 2H

D0
PO = [(1+gn) + H (ga + gn)]
r - gn
D0 (1+gn) D0 H (ga + gn)
= +
r - gn r - gn

VALUE BASED PREMIUM DUE TO

ON NORMAL ABNORMAL GROWH
 ILLUSTRATION: H LTD

D0 = 1 ga = 25% H=5
gn = 15% r = 18%
1 (1.15) 1 x 5(.25 - .15)
P0 = +
0.18 - 0.15 0.18 - 0.15
= 38.33 + 16.67 = 55.00
IF E = 2 P/E = 27.5
 IMPACT OF GROWTH ON PRICE, RETURNS,
AND P/E RATIO

PRICE DIVIDEND CAPITAL PRICE

D1 YIELD GAINS EARNINGS
PO = YIELD RATIO
r-g (D1 / PO) (P1 - PO) / PO (P / E)

RS. 2.00
LOW GROWTH FIRM PO = = RS.13.33 15.0% 5.0% 4.44
0.20 - 0.05

RS. 2.00
NORMALGROWTH PO = = RS.20.00 10.0% 10.0% 6.67
FIRM 0.20 - 0.10

RS. 2.00
SUPERNORMAL PO = = RS.40.00 5.0% 15.0% 13.33
GROWTH FIRM 0.20 - 0.15
EARNINGS MULTIPLIER
APPROACH
P0 = m E1

DETERMINANTS OF m i.e. (P / E)
D1
P0 =
r-g
E1 (1 - b)
=
r - ROE x b
(1 - b)
P0 / E1 =
r - ROE x b
 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

• The key questions to be addressed in applying

the EARNINGS MULTIPLIER APPROACH, the most
popular method in practice, are:

 What is the expected EPS for the

forthcoming year?
 What is a reasonable PE ratio?
•
 ESTIMATION OF
INTRINSIC VALUE

• Estimate the expected EPS

• Establish a P / E ratio

• Develop a value anchor and a value

range
 EPS FORECAST
20 x 7 20 x 8 ASSUMPTION
(ACTUAL) (PROJECTED)
• NET SALES 840 924 INCREASE BY 10 PERCENT
• COST OF GOODS
SOLD 638 708 INCREASE BY 11 PERCENT
• GROSS PROFIT 202 216
• OPERATING EXPNS 74 81 INCREASE BY 9.5 PERCENT
• DEPRECIATION 30 34
• SELLIN & GEN.
ADMN. EXPNS 44 47
• OPERATING PROFIT 128 135
• NON-OPERATING
SURPLUS/DEFICIT 2 2 NO CHANGE
• PROFIT BEFORE
INT. & TAX (PBIT) 130 137
• INTEREST 25 24 DECREASE BY 4 PERCENT
• PROFIT BEFORE
TAX 105 113
• TAX 35 38 INCREASE BY 8.57 PERCENT
• PROFIT AFTER
TAX 70 75
• NUMBER OF EQUIITY
SHARES 15 MLN 15
• EARNINGS PER SHARE RS 4.67 RS 5.00
 Methods of calculating P/E Ratio

 Dividend Growth Model

 Cross sectional Analysis

 Historical Analysis

 Weighted P/E Ratio

CONSTANT GROWTH DIVIDEND MODEL
DIVIDEND PAYOUT RATIO(i.eD1 / E1)
P / E RATIO =
REQUIRED EXPECTED
RETURN ON _ GROWTH RATE
EQUITY IN DIVIDENDS

CROSS SECTION ANALYSIS

P/E = a1 + a2 (GROWTH RATE IN + a3 (DIVIDEND

EARNINGS) PAYOUT RATIO)

+ a4 (VARIABILITY IN EARNINGS) + a5 (COMPANY SIZE)

 HISTORICAL ANALYSIS
20 x 5 20 x 6 20 x 7
PE ratio 9.25 6.63 6.23
The average PE ratio is :
9.25 + 6.63 + 6.23
= 7.37
3

WEIGHTED PE RATIO
PE ratio based on the constant
growth dividend discount model : 6.36

PE ratio based on historical analysis : 7.37

6.36 + 7.37
= 6.87
2
 VALUE ANCHOR AND VALUE RANGE

Value Anchor
Projected EPS x Appropriate PE ratio
5.00 x 6.87 = Rs. 34.35

Value Range
Rs.30 — Rs.38
Market Price Decision
< Rs.30 Buy
Rs.30 – Rs.38 Hold
> Rs.38 Sell
Relative valuation techniques:

1. Price earnings ratio (P/E)

2. Price cash flow ratios (P/CF)

3. Price book value ratios (P/BV)

4. Price sales ratio (P/S)

 PBV-ROE Matrix

Overvalued High ROE

HIGH Low ROE High PBV
High PBV
PBV Ratio
Low ROE Undervalued
LOW Low PBV High ROE
Low PBV

LOW HIGH
ROE
 GROWTH-DURATION MATRIX

Promises of
High Undervalued
growth

Expected 5-Yr
EPS Growth

Low Dividend
Overvalued
cows

Low High
Duration (1/Dividend Yield)
 EXPECTATIONS RISK INDEX (ERI)

Developed by Al Rappaport, the ERI reflects the risk in

realising the expectations embedded in the current market
price

Proportion of stock Ratio of expected future

ERI = price depending on X growth to recent growth
expected future growth (Acceleration ratio)
 ERI ILLUSTRATION

• Omega’s price per share = Rs.150

• Omega’s operating cash flow
= Rs.10 per share
(before growth investment)
• Omega’s cost of equity = 15 percent
• Growth rate in after-tax “cash” operating
= 20 percent
earnings over the past three years
• Market expectation of the growth in after-tax
“cash” operating earnings over the next three = 50 percent
years
 ERI ILLUSTRATION

Rs.10
• Omega’s base line value = = Rs.66.7
0.15
• Proportion of the stock price coming
150 – 66.7
150
from investors’ expectations of future = = 0.56
growth opportunities 1.50
1.20
• Acceleration ratio = = 1.25
ERI = 0.56 x 1.25 = 0.70

In general, the lower (higher) the ERI, the greater (smaller) the
chance of achieving expectations and the higher (lower) the
expected return for investors.
OBSTACLES IN THE
WAY OF AN ANALYST

• Inadequacies or incorrectness of data

• Future uncertainties

• Irrational market behaviour

 SUMMING UP
• In practice, the earnings multiplier method is the most popular
method. The key questions to be addressed in this method are:
what is the expected EPS for the forthcoming year? What is a
reasonable PE ratio given the growth prospects, risk exposure,
and other characteristics? Historical financial analysis serves as a
foundation for answering these questions.

• The ROE, perhaps the most important metric of financial

performance, is decomposed in two ways for analytical purposes.
ROE = Net profit margin x Asset turnover x Leverage
ROE = PBIT efficiency x Asset turnover x Interest burden
x Tax burden x Leverage

• To measure the historical growth, the CAGR in variables like

sales, net profit, EPS and DPS is calculated.
• To get a handle over the kind of growth that can be maintained,
the sustainable growth rate is calculated.

• Beta and volatility of ROE may be used as risk measures.

• An estimate of EPS is an educated guess about the future

profitability of the company.

• The PE ratio may be derived from the constant growth dividend

model, or cross-section analysis, or historical analysis.

• The value anchor is :

Projected EPS x Appropriate PE ratio

• PBV-ROE matrix, growth-duration matrix, and expectation risk

index are some of the tools to judge undervaluation or
overvaluation.
And now…..
 And now…..

IT’S TIME FOR ASSIGNMENT !!!