Scribd Logo
Upload

Welcome to Scribd!

  • 195 views

    Reliability Lesson 3

    Uploaded by

    REGIONAL DIRECTOR SOUTHERN TAGALOG
    The exponential distribution can be used to predict the probability of survival to time t during the constant failure rate or random failure phase. The key characteristics are that the mean and standard deviation are equal, 63.21% of values fall below the mean, and reliability approaches 1 as time approaches 0. The reliability for a given time t can be calculated using the formula R(t)=e-λt, where λ is the failure rate and t is the time. Examples are provided to demonstrate calculating reliability using different time units like hours, cycles, and total operating hours across a population to determine the failure rate λ.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Reliability Lesson 3

    Uploaded by

    REGIONAL DIRECTOR SOUTHERN TAGALOG
    195 views10 pages
    The exponential distribution can be used to predict the probability of survival to time t during the constant failure rate or random failure phase. The key characteristics are that the mean and standard deviation are equal, 63.21% of values fall below the mean, and reliability approaches 1 as time approaches 0. The reliability for a given time t can be calculated using the formula R(t)=e-λt, where λ is the failure rate and t is the time. Examples are provided to demonstrate calculating reliability using different time units like hours, cycles, and total operating hours across a population to determine the failure rate λ.

    Original Description:

    jkloi

    Original Title

    RELIABILITY LESSON 3

    Copyright

    © © All Rights Reserved

    Available Formats

    PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Did you find this document useful?

    Is this content inappropriate?

    The exponential distribution can be used to predict the probability of survival to time t during the constant failure rate or random failure phase. The key characteristics are that the mean and standard deviation are equal, 63.21% of values fall below the mean, and reliability approaches 1 as time approaches 0. The reliability for a given time t can be calculated using the formula R(t)=e-λt, where λ is the failure rate and t is the time. Examples are provided to demonstrate calculating reliability using different time units like hours, cycles, and total operating hours across a population to determine the failure rate λ.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
    195 views10 pages

    Reliability Lesson 3

    Uploaded by

    REGIONAL DIRECTOR SOUTHERN TAGALOG
    The exponential distribution can be used to predict the probability of survival to time t during the constant failure rate or random failure phase. The key characteristics are that the mean and standard deviation are equal, 63.21% of values fall below the mean, and reliability approaches 1 as time approaches 0. The reliability for a given time t can be calculated using the formula R(t)=e-λt, where λ is the failure rate and t is the time. Examples are provided to demonstrate calculating reliability using different time units like hours, cycles, and total operating hours across a population to determine the failure rate λ.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
    You are on page 1of 10

    LESSON 3 Exponential Distribution

    The exponential distribution is one of the most


    commonly used distributions in reliability and is
    generally used to predict the probability of
    survival to time t (see Figure).

    The hazard function for the exponential distribution


    is λ and is constant throughout the function.
    Therefore, the exponential distribution
    should only be used for reliability prediction during
    the constant failure rate or random failure phase of
    operation. Some unique characteristics of the
    exponential distribution include:
    • The mean and standard deviation are equal.
    • 63.21% of all of the values fall below the
    mean value, which translates into only a 36.79%
    chance of surviving past the MTBF.
    • Reliability, as time t approaches zero,
    approaches one as a limit.

    The reliability for a given time t during the


    constant failure period can be calculated with the
    following formula:
    R(t)=e-λt

    Where:

    e = The base of natural logarithm


    2.718281828 . .

    λ = Failure rate

    t = Time (Note: Cycles [c] may be


    substituted for time [t])
    Example:
    The equipment in a packaging plant has a failure
    rate of 0.001/hr. What is the probability of
    operating for a period of 500 hours without
    failure?
    Given:
    λ = 0.001/hr.
    t = 500 hrs.
    Find:
    R(t)
    Solution:
    R(t)=e-λt
    R(500)=e-(0.001x500)=0.6065 or 60.65%
    The λ or MTBF do not need to be a function of time
    in hours. The characteristics of time or usage
    can be such units as cycles rather than hours.
    In this case Mean Cycles Before Failure
    (MCBF) would be the appropriate measure.

    Example:
    One cycle of a molding machine produces 24 parts.
    A study of this machine predicted an MCBF of
    15,000 cycles. What is the probability of
    operating 16,000 cycles without failure?

    Given:
    MCBF = 15,000 cycles
    t = 16,000 cycles
     
    Find:

    λ, R(t)
    Solution:
    Recall that the failure rate is the reciprocal
    of the mean time before failure
    λ=
    Where:
    λ = Failure Rate
    = Estimate of MTBF / MCBF

    λ===0.0006667

    R(t)=e-λt
    R(16,000)=e-(0.00006667x16,000)=0.3441 or 34.41%
     
    Example:
    An item fails on the average of once every 10,000 hours.
    What is the probability of survival for 2000 hours?

    Given:
    MTBF = 10,000 hrs.
    t = 2,000 hrs.
    Find:
    λ, R(t)
    Solution:
    Recall that the failure rate is the reciprocal of the
    mean time before failure
    λ=
    Where:
    λ = Failure Rate
    = Estimate of MTBF / MCBF
      λ===0.0001

    R(t)=e-λt
    R(2,000)=e-(0.0001x2,000)=0.8187 or 81.87%

    An interesting aspect of prediction during


    the random failure period is that the
    probability of functioning for a given time
    period (t) is totally independent of previous
    operation. Therefore, as long as the
    operation remains in random failure mode,
    the probability of failure remains the same.
    Remember from Lesson 1 “Reliability is quantified in
    other ways. We can specify a reliability as the mean number
    of failures in a given time (failure rate), or as the mean time
    between failures (MTBF) for items which are repaired and
    returned to use, or as the mean time to failure (MTTF) for
    items which are not repaired, or as the proportion of the
    total population of items failing during the mission
    life.”
    Example:
    Let’s say we want to know if a new product will
    survive 850 hours. We have data on 1,650 units
    that have operated for an average of 400 hours.
    Overall there have been 145 failures. We are
    assuming an exponential distribution – thus we do
    not need to know the time to failure for each
    failure, just the total time and number of failures.
      
    Assuming an exponential distribution and
    interested in the reliability over a specific time,
    we use the reliability function for the exponential
    distribution.
    The problem does not present a failure rate, just
    the information to calculate a failure rate. For
    lambda (λ) we divide the number of failures by
    the total time the units operate. We’re given
    1,650 its ran on the average 400 hours, thus 400
    times 1,650 provides the total time.

    λ===0.0002197

    R(t)=e-λt
    R(850)=e-(0.0002197x850)=0.8297 or 82.97%

    You might also like