Quantifying The Cumulative Impact of Change Orders
Quantifying The Cumulative Impact of Change Orders
Quantifying The Cumulative Impact of Change Orders
Rich Camlic
Chair
Cumulative Change Order Impacts
Research Team
RT 158
Cumulative Change Order Impacts
Research Team
Tripp Ahern J. F. Ahern Company
George Armenio General Motors Corporation
Rich Camlic U.S. Steel, Chair
Edward Gibble McClure Company
Brian Griffiths Electrical Corp. of America
Hanford Gross Gross Mechanical Contractors
Awad Hanna University of Wisconsin-Madison
Kevin Hughes FPL Energy
Kam Kamath Black & Veatch
Chris Lloyd-Jones Bechtel
Joe Loftus Sr. Terminal-Andrae Inc.
Wayne Montgomery Kvaerner Process
Greg Thomas Fisk Electric Company
Problem Statement
• Administration boards and courts
recognize that effects of cumulative
impact can go beyond the initial change
itself.
ex
Probability Y =
1 + ex
60%
50%
% Delta
40%
30%
Data
20% Lower CI
10% Upper CI
0%
0% 50% 100% 150%
% Change
Productivity Tracking & Poor CO
Process Time at 95% Confidence Level
PM %Time on Proj & %OwnerInitCO = Ave
Productivity=1, Overman=0, Processing=5
60%
50%
40%
% Delta
30%
20% Data
Lower CI (95%)
10%
Upper CI (95%)
0%
0% 50% 100% 150%
% Change
Productivity Tracking & Good CO
Process Time at 95% Confidence Level
PM %Time on Proj & %OwnerInitCO = Ave
Productivity=1, Overman=0, Processing=1
45%
40%
35%
30%
% Delta
25%
20%
15%
Data
10%
Lower CI (95%)
5%
Upper CI (95%)
0%
0% 50% 100% 150%
% Change
Final Comments
• We do not claim, nor should you expect,
the “absolute” correct answer, but rather
a most likely answer that fits within a
range of possible outcomes both above and
below our predicted value.