2008 Fin Crisis

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2008 Global Financial Crisis

Backdrop of the crisis


• Cyclical fluctuations in both activity and inflation had tended to trend
down
• The financial crisis that broke in mid-2007 and intensified following
the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in September 2008 has triggered a
world-wide economic downturn.
• Additionally, There was also jobless growth, sluggish real wages and
the food and energy crisis.
Reason
• Bond yields in many countries fell to unusually low levels in historical
comparison, both in nominal and real terms
• Reflecting the low interest rate environment, real house prices shot
up in most OECD countries
• Against the background of rising house prices, and generally good
economic conditions, housing construction also expanded rapidly to
reach historical highs in terms of GDP in many countries
• Low interest rates across the yield curve together with rapid
development in financial innovation led to bank credit growing at
rates more than usually in excess of GDP
Reason
• Bond yields in many countries fell to unusually low levels in historical comparison,
both in nominal and real terms
• Reflecting the low interest rate environment, real house prices shot up in most OECD
countries
• Against the background of rising house prices, and generally good economic
conditions, housing construction also expanded rapidly to reach historical highs in
terms of GDP in many countries
• Low interest rates across the yield curve together with rapid development in
financial innovation led to bank credit growing at rates more than usually in excess of
GDP
• Additionally, There was also jobless growth, sluggish real wages and the food and
energy crisis.
Impacts/Consequences
• 8.8 million jobs lost, Unemployment spiked to 10% by Oct 2009, 8
million home foreclosures, $19.2 trillion in household wealth
evaporated, Home price declines of 40% on average – even steeper in
some cities, S&P 500 declined 38.5% in 2008
• $7.4 trillion in stock wealth lost from 2008-09, or $66,200 per
household, on average
• Employee sponsored savings or retirement account balances declined
27% in 2008
• Delinquency rates for Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMs) climbed to
nearly 30% by 2010
Impact of the 2008 Financial Crisis across
world
Remedial measures
• Central bank policy rates were slashed to historic lows. The US Fed Funds rate was
cut from 5% to 0%. Japan and Switzerland took policy rates below 0%.
• Major central banks then undertook large-scale asset purchases, bringing down
long-term yields, expanding their balance sheets and flooding markets with
liquidity
• In addition, governments stepped in to spend. The US clocked a federal deficit of
9.8% of GDP in 2009, from 1.1% of GDP in 2007. The Euro area fiscal deficit,
likewise, moved from 0.7% of GDP in 2007 to 6.3% of GDP in 2009.
• Post the 2008 crisis, as India’s growth and exports fell sharply, our policymakers
stepped in to support growth. The Reserve Bank of India slashed policy interest
rates from 7% to an effective low of 3.25%. India’s 10y government bond yield
dropped from 9% to 5% by end 2008. Moreover, the central government expanded
the fiscal deficit from 2.5% of GDP in FY08 to 6% in FY09, and 6.5% in FY10.
Learnings from the case
• First, the policy objectives of central banks would have to be broader
than price stability as conventionally defined.
• Second, there is a need for fiscal consolidation to generate the fiscal
space for macro management.
• Third, financial institutions would have to be less leveraged and better
regulated.

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