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    The document discusses confidence interval estimation for means and proportions. It covers concepts like confidence levels, factors affecting interval width like sample size and data variation, and how to calculate confidence intervals when the population standard deviation is known or unknown.

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    Chapter Topics

    Uploaded by

    marife
    32 views18 pages
    The document discusses confidence interval estimation for means and proportions. It covers concepts like confidence levels, factors affecting interval width like sample size and data variation, and how to calculate confidence intervals when the population standard deviation is known or unknown.

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    The document discusses confidence interval estimation for means and proportions. It covers concepts like confidence levels, factors affecting interval width like sample size and data variation, and how to calculate confidence intervals when the population standard deviation is known or unknown.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as ppt, pdf, or txt
    32 views18 pages

    Chapter Topics

    Uploaded by

    marife
    The document discusses confidence interval estimation for means and proportions. It covers concepts like confidence levels, factors affecting interval width like sample size and data variation, and how to calculate confidence intervals when the population standard deviation is known or unknown.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPT, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    Chapter Topics

    •Confidence Interval Estimation for the Mean


    (Known)
    •Confidence Interval Estimation for the Mean
    (Unknown)
    •Confidence Interval Estimation for the
    Proportion
    •Sample Size Estimation
    Estimation Process

    Population Random Sample


    I am 95%
    Mean confident that 
    Mean, , is is between 40 &
    unknown X = 50
    60.

    Sample
    Population Parameters
    Estimated
    Estimate Population with Sample
    Parameter... Statistic
    _
    Mean  X
    Proportion p ps
    2
    Variance  2
    s
    _ _
    Difference  -  x - x
    1 2 1 2
    Confidence Interval Estimation

    • Provides Range of Values


    – Based on Observations from 1 Sample
    • Gives Information about Closeness
    to Unknown Population Parameter
    • Stated in terms of Probability
    Never 100% Sure
    Elements of Confidence
    Interval Estimation

    A Probability That the Population Parameter


    Falls Somewhere Within the Interval.
    Confidence Interval Sample
    Statistic

    Confidence Limit Confidence Limit


    (Lower) (Upper)
    Level of Confidence
    • Probability that the unknown
    • population parameter falls within the
    • interval
    • Denoted (1 - ) % = level of confidence
    e.g. 90%, 95%, 99%
     Is Probability That the Parameter Is Not
    Within the Interval
    Intervals &
    Level of Confidence
    Sampling
    Distribution of _
    x
    the Mean /2 1 - /2
    _
    Intervals X   X
    Extend from
    (1 - ) % of
    X  Z X Intervals
    Contain .
    to
    % Do Not.
    X  Z X
    Confidence Intervals
    Factors Affecting
    Interval Width
    • Data Variation Intervals Extend from
    • measured by  X - Z
    x
    to X + Z 
    x
    • Sample Size
    X  X / n
    • Level of Confidence
    (1 - )

    © 1984-1994 T/Maker Co.


    Confidence Interval Estimates

    Confidence
    Intervals

    Mean Proportion

     Known  Unknown
    Confidence Intervals (Known)

    • Assumptions
    – Population Standard Deviation Is Known
    – Population Is Normally Distributed
    – If Not Normal, use large samples
    • Confidence Interval Estimate

      
    X  Z / 2  X  Z / 2 
    n n
    Confidence Intervals (Unknown)

    • Assumptions
    – Population Standard Deviation Is Unknown
    – Population Must Be Normally Distributed
    • Use Student’s t Distribution
    • Confidence Interval Estimate
    S    X t S
    X  t  / 2 ,n 1   / 2 ,n 1 
    n n
    Student’s t Distribution

    Standard
    Normal

    Bell-Shaped t (df = 13)


    Symmetric
    ‘Fatter’ Tails t (df = 5)

    Z
    t
    0
    Degrees of Freedom (df)

    • Number of Observations that Are Free


    • to Vary After Sample Mean Has
    Been
    • Calculated degrees of freedom =
    • Example n -1
    – Mean of 3 Numbers Is 2 = 3 -1
    X1 = 1 (or Any Number) =2
    X2 = 2 (or Any Number)
    X3 = 3 (Cannot Vary)
    Mean = 2
    Student’s t Table
    /2 Assume: n = 3 df
    =n-1=2
    Upper Tail Area
     = .10
    df .25 .10 .05 /2 =.05

    1 1.000 3.078 6.314

    2 0.817 1.886 2.920 .05


    3 0.765 1.638 2.353
    0 t
    t Values 2.920
    Example: Interval Estimation
    Unknown
    •A random sample of n = 25 hasX = 50 and
    •s = 8. Set up a 95% confidence interval
    estimate for .
    S S
    X  t  / 2 ,n 1     X  t  / 2 ,n 1 
    n n
    8 8
    50  2 .0639  50  2 .0639 
    25  25

    46 . 69    53 . 30
    Confidence Interval Estimate
    Proportion
    • Assumptions
    – Two Categorical Outcomes

    – Population Follows Binomial Distribution

    – Normal Approximation Can Be Used

    – n·p 5 & n·(1 - p)  5


    • Confidence Interval Estimate
    ps ( 1  ps ) ps ( 1  ps )
    ps  Z  / 2   p ps  Z  / 2 
    n n
    Sample Size

    Too Big: Too Small:


    •Requires too •Won’t do
    much resources the job
    Example: Sample Size
    for Mean

    •What sample size is needed to be 90%


    confident of being correct within ± 5? A
    pilot study suggested that the standard
    deviation is 45.
    2 2 2 2
    Z  1645
    . 45
    n   219.2  220
    2 2
    Error 5
    Round Up

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