Chapter Three: Aggregate Demand in Closed Economy
Chapter Three: Aggregate Demand in Closed Economy
Chapter Three: Aggregate Demand in Closed Economy
Chapter Three
AGGREGATE DEMAND IN
CLOSED ECONOMY
BY ESHETIE W.
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Introduction:A Simple Economy Model
Y = C +I..................................(1)
Since there is no government and external sector in our
economy (by assumption), the
private sector receives the whole of the disposable
income (Y).
The income will be partly spent on consumption and
partly will be saved.
Thus we can write
Y = C + S..................................(2)
Cont.
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Substituting the right hand side of (8a) into (5) and rearranging, we get
S-I=(G+TR TA)+NX.............................(9)
Cont.
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At the heart of the Keynesian perspective is the importance of demand and all its
components: C, I, G(and Nx in an open economy).
Our starting point for the analysis of how shifts in these components affect demand is
the Keynesian cross.
Because these unplanned changes in inventory are counted as spending by firms, actual
expenditure can be either above or below planned expenditure.
Assuming that the economy is closed, the planned expenditure is given by,
AD = C + I +G..................................(10)
Let us suppose for the moment that all the things that influence aggregate consumption
expenditure over and above current income
(e.g., demographics, expectations of future income, levels of wealth, and so on) can be held
constant as current income varies.
Suppose also the link between changes in current income and spending is proportional so that a
given rise in available birr of income always raises consumption by a given fraction of that rise —
say c.
Hence, consumption is determined by disposable income.
Mathematically,
C=C(Y-T)………………………………….(11) or C= c0+c1(Y-T)
Cont.
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Y=AD..................................(14)Or;
The above graph shows that Keynesian equilibrium is achieved when the actual
expenditure line crosses the 45◦ line.
At any point along the 45◦ line, planned and actual aggregate
demand are equal.
In the Keynesian cross, equilibrium is achieved through inventory adjustment.
Unplanned change in inventories induce producers to change production
accordingly.
Suppose, GDP in the current period is greater than planned aggregate demand,
and as a result firms sell less than they produce.
The unsold goods will be added to the stock of inventories. This unplanned
inventory investment induce firms to reduce production.
Cont.
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We can use this model to show how income changes when one of
these exogenous variables changes.
Fiscal Policy and the Multiplier: Government Purchases
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Just like the government spending, tax also has a multiplier impact on
income. Starting with
the national income identity,
Y= C(Y – T) + I + G
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The multiplier implies that, income and tax are negatively related.
Moreover, a unit
increase in tax will result in a more than proportionate decrease in
income and vice versa.
So far, we assumed that tax is a fixed lump sum. In reality, however, tax
is a function of
income. In this case, the government expenditure multiplier is given by
Cont.
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The result clearly shows that a change in the government
expenditure has smaller impact
The Interest rate, Investment and the IS Curve
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The IS curve shows us the level of income for any given interest rate.
The IS curve is drawn for a given fiscal policy; that is, it holds G and
T fixed.
When fiscal policy changes, the IS curve shifts. Here are some
factors that shift the IS curve
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Changes in fiscal policy that raise the demand for goods and
services shift the IS curve to the right.
Changes in fiscal policy that reduce the demand for goods and
services (such as an increase in tax) shift the IS curve to the left.
The Money market and the LM curve
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The LM curve is the r/ship between the interest rate and the level of
income that arises in the market for money balances.
A. The Theory of Liquidity Preference
The theory of liquidity preference explains how the supply and demand
for real money balance determines the interest rate.
We begin with the supply of real money balances.
If M stands for the supply of money and P stands for the price level, then
M/P is the supply of real money balances.
This equation
states that the quantity of real
balances demanded is a function
of the r.
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As the above figure shows the increase in income shifts the
Md curve outward.
To equilibrate the market for real money balances, the r must
rise from r1 to r2.
Therefore, higher income leads to a higher r .
The LM curve plots this r/ship b/n the level of income & the r.
The higher the level of income, the higher the demand for real
money balances, & the higher the equilibrium
r.
For this reason the LM curve slopes upward
Cont.
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The last term in the above equation is positive due to the fact that both the
numerator and the denominator are positive.
Let’s see each term in the denominator; the numerator, 1, is clearly
positive.
C’ is the MPC which, obviously, is between zero and one.
1-C’, MPS is therefore positive.
I’=dI/dr is negative given that investment is negatively related with interest
rate;
And k, the coefficient of Y in the LM equation, is positive indicating that an
increase in income increases the transaction demand for money.
On the other hand, L, the coefficient of r in the LM equation is negative due to
the fact that the demand for cash balance decrease as interest rate increases.
Generally, (1-C’) is positive and (I’k/L) is also negative since it is a ratio of two
negatives.
Hence,dY/ispositive.
Changes in Monetary Policy
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So far, the government can bring the desired outcomes in the
economy by using a set of FP and MP instruments.
But how can policymakers decide which of these
policies to use if faced with too much unemployment?
Should they decrease taxes, increase government spending,
raise the Ms, or do all three?
And if they decide to increase the money supply, by how much?
Although the ISLM model will not clear the path to aggregate
economic bliss, it can help policymakers decide which policies
may be most effective under certaincircumstances.
Cont.
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We now consider how the ISLM model can also be viewed as a theory of
aggregate demand.
We defined the IS and LM curves in terms of equilibrium in the goods and
money markets, respectively.
Aggregate demand summarizes equilibrium in both of these
markets.
Recall that the ISLM model is constructed on the basis of a fixed price level.
For a given value of the price level and the nominal Ms, the position of the
LM curve is fixed.
The real Ms changes if either the nominal money supply or the price level
changes.
Thus we can see that changes in the price level are associated with changes
in the equilibrium level of output and interest rates.
This is the relationship that is summarized by the aggregate demand curve.
Cont.
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If the price level is high, other things equal, the real money supply is low.
This implies high interest rates, and thus low investment & output.
If the price level falls, then the real Ms increases.
Equilibrium in the money market implies that r must fall.
Equilibrium in the goods market thus implies that output must rise, since
investment rises.
Thus, we find that the aggregate demand curve is downward sloping;
High values of the price level are associated with low level of output, and
vice versa.
Notice that the reason this curve slopes downward is not easy to describe;
It is not like the regular microeconomic demand curve for a good.
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Cont.
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Soln. LM equation
Derived from MONEY
market equilibrium
condition
Md = 0.4Y – 60r = 1,000
0.4Y =1000 + 60r
Y = 2,500 + 150r LM
Equ ----- [2]
Soln b) :- use the
equilibrium Condition. We82
Once we got the equilibrium
should solve the two
interest rate, we can use it in
equations simultaneously or either of the two equations to
simply by setting the two equilibrium income:
equations are equal: Y = 3,500 – 100r = 3500 –
3,500 – 100r = 2,500 100(4)
Y = 3500 – 400 = 3100 or
+150r
Y = 2,500 + 150r = 2500 + 150(4)
3,500 – 2,500 = 150r + = 2500 + 600 = 3100
100r
1000 = 250r Thus, equilibrium income is birr
3100
r = 1000/250 = 4
Equilibrium interest rate is
4
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A Reward for Your Attention
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