Inferences Based On A Single Sample: Tests of Hypothesis

© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall
Chapter 8
Inferences Based on a Single Sample:

Tests of Hypothesis
8-1
Learning Objectives
1. Distinguish Types of Hypotheses

2. Describe Hypothesis Testing Process
3. Explain p-Value Concept
4. Solve Hypothesis Testing Problems
Based on a Single Sample
5. Explain Power of a Test
8-2
Statistical Methods
Statistical
Methods
Descriptive Inferential
Statistics Statistics
Hypothesis
Estimation
Testing
8-3
Hypothesis Testing Concepts
8-4
Hypothesis Testing
8-5
Hypothesis Testing
Population
 

 


8-6
Hypothesis Testing
I believe the
population
mean age is 50
Population (hypothesis).
 

 


8-7
Hypothesis Testing
I believe the
population
mean age is 50
Population (hypothesis).
 

 
 Random
 sample
Mean 
X = 20
8-8
Hypothesis Testing
I believe the
population Reject
mean age is 50 hypothesis!
Population (hypothesis). Not close.
 

 
 Random
 sample
Mean 
X = 20
8-9
What’s a Hypothesis?
1. A Belief about a I believe the mean GPA

Population Parameter of this class is 3.5!
 Parameter Is
Population Mean,
Proportion, Variance
 Must Be Stated
Before Analysis
© 1984-1994 T/Maker Co.
8 - 10
Null Hypothesis
1. What Is Tested
2. Has Serious Outcome If Incorrect
Decision Made
3. Designated H0 (Pronounced H-nought)
4. Specified as H0:   Some Numeric Value
 Specified with = Sign Even if , or 
 Example, H0:   3
8 - 11
Alternative Hypothesis
1. Opposite of Null Hypothesis

2. Always Has Inequality Sign: ,, or 
3. Designated Ha
4. Specified Ha:  < Some Value
 Example, Ha:  < 3
 will lead to two-sided tests
 <, > will lead to one-sided tests
8 - 12
Identifying Hypotheses
Steps
1. Example Problem: Test That the Population
Mean Is Not 3
2. Steps
 State the Question Statistically (  3)
 State the Opposite Statistically ( = 3)
 Must Be Mutually Exclusive & Exhaustive
 Select the Alternative Hypothesis (  3)
 Has the , <, or > Sign
 State the Null Hypothesis ( = 3)
8 - 13
What Are the Hypotheses?
Is the population average amount of TV

viewing 12 hours?
State the question statistically:  = 12
State the opposite statistically:   12
Select the alternative hypothesis: Ha:   12
State the null hypothesis: H0:  = 12
8 - 14
Is the population average amount of TV

viewing different from 12 hours?
State the question statistically:   12
State the opposite statistically:  = 12
Select the alternative hypothesis: Ha:   12
State the null hypothesis: H0:  = 12
8 - 15
Is the average cost per hat less than or

equal to $20?
State the question statistically:   20
State the opposite statistically:   20
Select the alternative hypothesis: Ha:   20
State the null hypothesis: H0:   20
8 - 16
Is the average amount spent in the

bookstore greater than $25?
State the question statistically:   25
State the opposite statistically:   25
Select the alternative hypothesis: Ha:   25
State the null hypothesis: H0:   25
8 - 17
Basic Idea
8 - 18
Basic Idea
Sampling Distribution
 = 50 Sample Mean
H0
8 - 19
Basic Idea
It is unlikely
that we would
get a sample
mean of this
value ...
20  = 50 Sample Mean
H0
8 - 20
Basic Idea
It is unlikely
that we would
get a sample
mean of this
value ...
... if in fact this were

the population mean
H0
8 - 21
Basic Idea
It is unlikely
that we would ... therefore,
get a sample we reject the
mean of this hypothesis
value ... that  = 50.
... if in fact this were

the population mean
H0
8 - 22
Level of Significance
1. Probability
2. Defines Unlikely Values of Sample Statistic
if Null Hypothesis Is True
 Called Rejection Region of Sampling
Distribution
3. Designated (alpha)
 Typical Values Are .01, .05, .10
4. Selected by Researcher at Start
8 - 23
Rejection Region
(One-Tail Test)
8 - 24
Rejection Region
(One-Tail Test)
Level of Confidence
Rejection
Region
1-

Nonrejection
Region
Ho Sample Statistic
Critical Value
Value
8 - 25
Rejection Region
(One-Tail Test)
Level of Confidence
Rejection
Region
1-

Nonrejection
Region
Ho Sample Statistic
Critical Value
Value
Observed sample statistic
8 - 26
Rejection Region
(One-Tail Test)
Level of Confidence
Rejection
Region
1-

Nonrejection
Region
Ho Sample Statistic
Critical Value
Value
8 - 27
Rejection Regions
(Two-Tailed Test)
8 - 28
Rejection Regions
(Two-Tailed Test)
Level of Confidence
Rejection Rejection
Region Region
1-
1/2  1/2 
Nonrejection
Region
Ho Sample Statistic
Critical Value Critical
Value Value
8 - 29
Rejection Regions
(Two-Tailed Test)
Level of Confidence
Rejection Rejection
Region Region
1-
1/2  1/2 
Nonrejection
Region
Ho Sample Statistic
Value Value
Observed sample statistic
8 - 30
Rejection Regions
(Two-Tailed Test)
Level of Confidence
Rejection Rejection
Region Region
1-
1/2  1/2 
Nonrejection
Region
Ho Sample Statistic
Value Value
8 - 31
Rejection Regions
(Two-Tailed Test)
Level of Confidence
Rejection Rejection
Region Region
1-
1/2  1/2 
Nonrejection
Region
Ho Sample Statistic
Value Value
8 - 32
Hypothesis Testing Steps
8 - 33
H0 Testing Steps
8 - 34
H0 Testing Steps
 State H0
 State Ha
 Choose 
 Choose n
 Choose test
8 - 35
H0 Testing Steps
 State H0  Set up critical values
 State Ha  Collect data
 Choose 
 Compute test statistic
 Choose n
 Make statistical decision
 Choose test
 Express decision
8 - 36
One Population Tests
One
Population
Mean Proportion Variance
Z Test t Test Z Test 2 Test

(1 & 2 (1 & 2 (1 & 2 (1 & 2
tail) tail) tail) tail)
8 - 37
Two-Tailed Z Test
of Mean ( Known)
8 - 38
One
Population

(1 & 2 (1 & 2 (1 & 2 (1 & 2
8 - 39
Two-Tailed Z Test
for Mean ( Known)
1. Assumptions
 X-bar Is Normally Distributed
 If Not Normal, Can Be Approximated by
Normal Distribution (n  30)
2. Alternative Hypothesis Has  Sign
8 - 40
Two-Tailed Z Test
1. Assumptions
 X-bar Is Normally Distributed
2. Alternative Hypothesis Has  Sign
3. Z-Test Statistic
X  x X  
Z 
x 
n
8 - 41
Two-Tailed Z Test
Example
Does an average box of
cereal contain 368 grams
of cereal? A random
sample of 25 boxes
showedX = 372.5. The
company has specified 
to be 15 grams. Test at
the .05 level. 368 gm.
8 - 42
Two-Tailed Z Test
Solution
H0: Test Statistic:
Ha:

n
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 43
Two-Tailed Z Test
Solution
H0:  = 368 Test Statistic:
Ha:   368

n
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 44
Two-Tailed Z Test
Solution
Ha:   368
  .05
n  25
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 45
Two-Tailed Z Test
Solution
Ha:   368
  .05
n  25
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Reject H 0 Reject H 0
.025 .025 Conclusion:
-1.96 0 1.96 Z
8 - 46
Two-Tailed Z Test
Solution
Ha:   368 X   372.5  368
Z   1.50
  .05  15
n  25 n 25
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
-1.96 0 1.96 Z
8 - 47
Two-Tailed Z Test
Solution
Ha:   368 X   372.5  368
Z   1.50
  .05  15
n  25 n 25
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Reject H 0 Reject H 0 Do not reject at  = .05
-1.96 0 1.96 Z
8 - 48
Two-Tailed Z Test
Solution
Ha:   368 X   372.5  368
Z   1.50
  .05  15
n  25 n 25
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
No evidence
-1.96 0 1.96 Z average is not 368
8 - 49
Two-Tailed Z Test
Thinking Challenge
You’re a Q/C inspector. You want to
find out if a new machine is making
electrical cords to customer
specification: average breaking
strength of 70 lb. with  = 3.5 lb. You
take a sample of 36 cords & compute
a sample mean of 69.7 lb. At the .05
level, is there evidence that the
machine is not meeting the average
breaking strength?
8 - 50
Two-Tailed Z Test
Solution*
H0: Test Statistic:
Ha:
=
n=
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 51
Two-Tailed Z Test
Solution*
Ha:   70
=
n=
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 52
Two-Tailed Z Test
Solution*
Ha:   70
 = .05
n = 36
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 53
Two-Tailed Z Test
Solution*
Ha:   70
 = .05
n = 36
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
-1.96 0 1.96 Z
8 - 54
Two-Tailed Z Test
Solution*
Ha:   70 X   69.7  70
Z    .51
 = .05  3.5
n = 36 n 36
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
-1.96 0 1.96 Z
8 - 55
Two-Tailed Z Test
Solution*
Ha:   70 X   69.7  70
Z    .51
 = .05  3.5
n = 36 n 36
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
-1.96 0 1.96 Z
8 - 56
Two-Tailed Z Test
Solution*
Ha:   70 X   69.7  70
Z    .51
 = .05  3.5
n = 36 n 36
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
No evidence
-1.96 0 1.96 Z average is not 70
8 - 57
One-Tailed Z Test
of Mean ( Known)
8 - 58
One-Tailed Z Test
1. Assumptions
 Population Is Normally Distributed
2. Alternative Hypothesis Has < or > Sign
8 - 59
One-Tailed Z Test
1. Assumptions
2. Alternative Hypothesis Has or > Sign
3. Z-test Statistic
X  x X  
Z 
x 
n
8 - 60
One-Tailed Z Test
for Mean Hypotheses
8 - 61
One-Tailed Z Test
for Mean Hypotheses
H0:=0 Ha: < 0
Reject H 0
0 Z
Must be significantly
below 
8 - 62
One-Tailed Z Test
for Mean Hypotheses
H0:=0 Ha: < 0 H0:=0 Ha: > 0
 
0 Z 0 Z
Must be significantly Small values satisfy
below  H0 . Don’t reject!
8 - 63
One-Tailed Z Test
Finding Critical Z
8 - 64
One-Tailed Z Test
Finding Critical Z
What Is Z given  = .025?
=1
 = .025

0 Z
8 - 65
One-Tailed Z Test
Finding Critical Z
What Is Z given  = .025?
.500 
- .025 =1
.475
 = .025

0 Z
8 - 66
One-Tailed Z Test
Finding Critical Z
What Is Z given  = .025? Standardized Normal
Probability Table (Portion)
.500  
- .025 =1 Z .05 .06 .07
.475 1.6 .4505 .4515 .4525
 = .025
1.7 .4599 .4608 .4616

0 Z 1.8 .4678 .4686 .4693
1.9 .4744 .4750 .4756
8 - 67
One-Tailed Z Test
Finding Critical Z
What Is Z given  = .025? Standardized Normal
Probability Table (Portion)
.500  
- .025 =1 Z .05 .06 .07
.475 1.6 .4505 .4515 .4525
 = .025
1.7 .4599 .4608 .4616

0 1.96 Z 1.8 .4678 .4686 .4693
 1.9 .4744 .4750 .4756

8 - 68
One-Tailed Z Test
Example
cereal contain more than
368 grams of cereal? A
random sample of 25
boxes showedX = 372.5.
The company has
specified  to be 15 grams.
Test at the .05 level. 368 gm.
8 - 69
One-Tailed Z Test
Solution
H0: Test Statistic:
Ha:
=
n=
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 70
One-Tailed Z Test
Solution
Ha:  > 368
=
n=
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 71
One-Tailed Z Test
Solution
Ha:  > 368
 = .05
n = 25
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 72
One-Tailed Z Test
Solution
Ha:  > 368
 = .05
n = 25
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Reject
.05 Conclusion:
0 1.645 Z
8 - 73
One-Tailed Z Test
Solution
Ha:  > 368 X   372.5  368
Z   1.50
 = .05  15
n = 25 n 25
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Reject
.05 Conclusion:
0 1.645 Z
8 - 74
One-Tailed Z Test
Solution
Ha:  > 368 X   372.5  368
Z   1.50
 = .05  15
n = 25 n 25
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Reject Do not reject at  = .05
.05 Conclusion:
0 1.645 Z
8 - 75
One-Tailed Z Test
Solution
Ha:  > 368 X   372.5  368
Z   1.50
 = .05  15
n = 25 n 25
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
.05 Conclusion:
No evidence average
0 1.645 Z is more than 368
8 - 76
One-Tailed Z Test
Thinking Challenge
You’re an analyst for Ford. You
want to find out if the average
miles per gallon of Escorts is at
least 32 mpg. Similar models
have a standard deviation of 3.8
mpg. You take a sample of 60
Escorts & compute a sample
mean of 30.7 mpg. At the .01
level, is there evidence that the
miles per gallon is at least 32?
8 - 77
One-Tailed Z Test
Solution*
H0: Test Statistic:
Ha:
=
n=
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 78
One-Tailed Z Test
Solution*
Ha:  < 32
=
n=
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 79
One-Tailed Z Test
Solution*
Ha:  < 32
 = .01
n = 60
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 80
One-Tailed Z Test
Solution*
Ha:  < 32
 = .01
n = 60
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Reject
.01 Conclusion:
-2.33 0 Z
8 - 81
One-Tailed Z Test
Solution*
Ha:  < 32 X   30.7  32
Z   2.65
 = .01  3.8
n = 60 n 60
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Reject
.01 Conclusion:
-2.33 0 Z
8 - 82
One-Tailed Z Test
Solution*
Ha:  < 32 X   30.7  32
Z   2.65
 = .01  3.8
n = 60 n 60
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Reject Reject at  = .01
.01 Conclusion:
-2.33 0 Z
8 - 83
One-Tailed Z Test
Solution*
Ha:  < 32 X   30.7  32
Z   2.65
 = .01  3.8
n = 60 n 60
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
.01 Conclusion:
There is evidence
-2.33 0 Z average is less than 32
8 - 84
Decision Making Risks
8 - 85
Confidence Intervals and
Hypothesis Tests
Both Start with Known Sampling Distribution for
X Interval
Confidence
 Pr( > given distance from ) =
 Draw an interval of size z around 
actual 

X
1- is the confidence level
 /2 X
z / 2
Hypothesis test


Compute critical value,
 Compute actual Z from actual
 Compare actual Z to z / 2
 Or, compute critical value for X
 Compare to actual z / 2
X
X
Errors in
Making Decision
1. Type I Error
 Reject True Null Hypothesis
 Has Serious Consequences
 Probability of Type I Error Is (Alpha)
 Called Level of Significance
2. Type II Error
 Do Not Reject False Null Hypothesis
 Probability of Type II Error Is (Beta)
8 - 87
Decision Results
H0: Innocent
Jury Trial H0 Test
Actual Situation Actual Situation
Verdict Innocent Guilty Decision H0 True H0
False
Do Not Type II
Innocent Correct Error Reject 1-
Error
H0
( )
Reject Type I Power
Guilty Error Correct Error ()
H0 (1 -  )
8 - 88
Decision Results
H0: Innocent
Jury Trial H0 Test
Actual Situation Actual Situation
Verdict Innocent Guilty Decision H0 True H0
False
Innocent Correct Error Accept Type II

1-
H0 Error
( )
Type I
Guilty Error Correct Reject Power
H0 Error ()
(1 -  )
8 - 89
 &  Have an
Inverse Relationship
You can’t reduce both
errors simultaneously!


8 - 90
Factors Affecting 
1. True Value of Population Parameter

  Increases When Difference With Hypothesized
Parameter Decreases
2. Significance Level, 
  Increases When Decreases
3. Population Standard Deviation, 

  Increases When  Increases
4. Sample Size, n
  Increases When n Decreases
8 - 91
Exercise
1000 subjects
500 told truth, 500 lied
Lie detector says
 185 truth tellers were liars
 120 liars were truth tellers
Ho: truth teller
a) What is a type-I error? Type-II error?
b) What is Pr(type-I error)? Pr(type-II error)?
8 - 92
Observed Significance
Levels: p-Values
8 - 93
p-Value
1. Probability of Obtaining a Test Statistic More

Extreme (or than Actual Sample Value
Given H0 Is True
2. Called Observed Level of Significance
 Smallest Value of  H0 Can Be Rejected
3. Used to Make Rejection Decision
 If p-Value  , Do Not Reject H0
 If p-Value < , Reject H0
8 - 94
Two-Tailed Z Test
p-Value Example
cereal contain 368 grams
of cereal? A random
sample of 25 boxes
showedX = 372.5. The
company has specified 
to be 15 grams. Find the
p-Value. 368 gm.
8 - 95
Two-Tailed Z Test
p-Value Solution
8 - 96
Two-Tailed Z Test
p-Value Solution
X   372.5  368
Z   1.50
 15
n 25
-1.50 0 1.50 Z
Z value of sample
 statistic (observed)
8 - 97
Two-Tailed Z Test
p-Value Solution
p-value is P(Z  -1.50 or Z  1.50)
-1.50 0 1.50 Z
Z value of sample
8 - 98
Two-Tailed Z Test
p-Value Solution
p-value is P(Z  -1.50 or Z  1.50)
1/2 p-Value 1/2 p-Value
-1.50 0 1.50 Z
Z value of sample
8 - 99
Two-Tailed Z Test
p-Value Solution
p-value is P(Z  -1.50 or Z  1.50)
1/2 p-Value 1/2 p-Value
.4332
-1.50 0 1.50 Z
From Z table: Z value of sample

 lookup 1.50  statistic (observed)
8 - 100
Two-Tailed Z Test
p-Value Solution
p-value is P(Z  -1.50 or Z  1.50)
1/2 p-Value 1/2 p-Value 

.5000
- .4332
.0668
.4332
-1.50 0 1.50 Z

 lookup 1.50  statistic (observed)
8 - 101
Two-Tailed Z Test
p-Value Solution
p-value is P(Z  -1.50 or Z  1.50) = .1336

1/2 p-Value 1/2 p-Value 
.0668 .0668 .5000
- .4332
.0668
.4332
-1.50 0 1.50 Z

 lookup 1.50  statistic
8 - 102
Two-Tailed Z Test
p-Value Solution
1/2 p-Value = .0668 1/2 p-Value = .0668

Reject Reject
1/2  = .025 1/2  = .025
-1.50 0 1.50 Z
8 - 103
Two-Tailed Z Test
p-Value Solution
(p-Value = .1336)  ( = .05).
Do not reject.
1/2 p-Value = .0668 1/2 p-Value = .0668
Reject Reject
1/2  = .025 1/2  = .025
-1.50 0 1.50 Z
Test statistic is in ‘Do not reject’ region
8 - 104
One-Tailed Z Test
p-Value Example
cereal contain more than
368 grams of cereal? A
random sample of 25
boxes showedX = 372.5.
The company has
specified  to be 15
grams. Find the p-Value. 368 gm.
8 - 105
One-Tailed Z Test
p-Value Solution
8 - 106
One-Tailed Z Test
p-Value Solution
X   372.5  368
Z   1.50
 15
n 25
0 1.50 Z
Z value of sample
 statistic
8 - 107
One-Tailed Z Test
p-Value Solution
p-Value is P(Z  1.50)

Use p-Value
alternative
hypothesis
to find
direction 0 1.50 Z
Z value of sample
 statistic
8 - 108
One-Tailed Z Test
p-Value Solution

Use p-Value
alternative
hypothesis
to find .4332
direction 0 1.50 Z
 From Z table:
 Z value of sample
lookup 1.50 statistic
8 - 109
One-Tailed Z Test
p-Value Solution

Use p-Value 
alternative .5000
hypothesis - .4332
to find .4332 .0668
direction 0 1.50 Z
 From Z table:
8 - 110
One-Tailed Z Test
p-Value Solution
p-Value is P(Z  1.50) = .0668
 p-Value
Use .0668 
alternative .5000
hypothesis - .4332
to find .4332 .0668
direction 0 1.50 Z
 From Z table:
8 - 111
One-Tailed Z Test
p-Value Solution
p-Value = .0668
Reject
 = .05
0 1.50 Z
8 - 112
One-Tailed Z Test
p-Value Solution
(p-Value = .0668)  ( = .05).
Do not reject.
p-Value = .0668
Reject
 = .05
0 1.50 Z
Test statistic is in ‘Do not reject’ region
8 - 113
p-Value
Thinking Challenge
You’re an analyst for Ford. You
want to find out if the average
miles per gallon of Escorts is at
least 32 mpg. Similar models
have a standard deviation of 3.8
mpg. You take a sample of 60
Escorts & compute a sample
mean of 30.7 mpg. What is the
value of the observed level of
significance (p-Value)?
8 - 114
p-Value
Solution*
p-Value is P(Z  -2.65) = .004.
p-Value < ( = .01). Reject H0.
 p-Value 
Use .004 .5000
alternative - .4960
hypothesis .0040
to find .4960
direction -2.65 0 Z
Z value of From Z table:

 sample statistic  lookup 2.65
8 - 115
Confidence Intervals, Hypothesis
Tests, and p-values
All Start with Known Sampling Distribution for X
Confidence Interval
Pr( > given distance from ) =
z  

 X
Draw an interval of size  / 2 actual
around
 1- is the confidence level  /2 z X
P-Value 
 Assume true mean
 Pr( > measured distance) = p
 
For one-sided p-value, no absolute value

HypothesisXtest
 Compute critical value, see if farther away
 Or pick , If p < , reject the null hypothesis
X
 
Two-Tailed t Test
of Mean ( Unknown)
8 - 117
One
Population

(1 & 2 (1 & 2 (1 & 2 (1 & 2
8 - 118
t Test for Mean
( Unknown)
1. Assumptions
2. Parametric Test Procedure
8 - 119
t Test for Mean
( Unknown)
1. Assumptions
2. Parametric Test Procedure
3. t Test Statistic
X 
t
S
n
8 - 120
Two-Tailed t Test
Finding Critical t Values
8 - 121
Two-Tailed t Test
Given: n = 3;  = .10
0 t
8 - 122
Two-Tailed t Test
Given: n = 3;  = .10

 /2 = .05
0 t
 /2 = .05
8 - 123
Two-Tailed t Test
Given: n = 3;  = .10
df = n - 1 = 2 

 /2 = .05
0 t
 /2 = .05
8 - 124
Two-Tailed t Test
Given: n = 3;  = .10 Critical Values of t Table
 (Portion)
df = n - 1 = 2 
v t.10 t.05 t.025
 1 3.078 6.314 12.706
 /2 = .05
2 1.886 2.920 4.303
0 t
3 1.638 2.353 3.182
 /2 = .05
8 - 125
Two-Tailed t Test
Given: n = 3;  = .10 Critical Values of t Table
 (Portion)
df = n - 1 = 2 
v t.10 t.05 t.025
 1 3.078 6.314 12.706
 /2 = .05
2 1.886 2.920 4.303
-2.920 0 2.920 t
3 1.638 2.353 3.182
 /2 = .05
8 - 126 
Two-Tailed t Test
Example
cereal contain 368
grams of cereal? A
random sample of 36
boxes had a mean of
372.5 & a standard
deviation of 12 grams.
Test at the .05 level. 368 gm.
8 - 127
Two-Tailed t Test
Solution
H0: Test Statistic:
Ha:
=
df =
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 128
Two-Tailed t Test
Solution
Ha:   368
=
df =
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 129
Two-Tailed t Test
Solution
Ha:   368
 = .05
df = 36 - 1 = 35
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 130
Two-Tailed t Test
Solution
Ha:   368
 = .05
df = 36 - 1 = 35
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
-2.0301 0 2.0301 t
8 - 131
Two-Tailed t Test
Solution
Ha:   368 X   372.5  368
t   2.25
 = .05 S 12
df = 36 - 1 = 35 n 36
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
-2.0301 0 2.0301 t
8 - 132
Two-Tailed t Test
Solution
Ha:   368 X   372.5  368
t   2.25
 = .05 S 12
df = 36 - 1 = 35 n 36
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Reject H 0 Reject H 0 Reject at  = .05
-2.0301 0 2.0301 t
8 - 133
Two-Tailed t Test
Solution
Ha:   368 X   372.5  368
t   2.25
 = .05 S 12
df = 36 - 1 = 35 n 36
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Reject H 0 Reject H 0 Reject at  = .05
There is evidence pop.
-2.0301 0 2.0301 t average is not 368
8 - 134
Two-Tailed t Test
Thinking Challenge
You work for the FTC. A
manufacturer of detergent
claims that the mean weight of
detergent is 3.25 lb. You take
a random sample of 64
containers. You calculate the
sample average to be 3.238 lb.
with a standard deviation
of .117 lb. At the .01 level, is
3.25 lb.
the manufacturer correct?
8 - 135
Two-Tailed t Test
Solution*
H0: Test Statistic:
Ha:

df 
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 136
Two-Tailed t Test
Solution*
H0:  = 3.25 Test Statistic:
Ha:   3.25

df 
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 137
Two-Tailed t Test
Solution*
Ha:   3.25
  .01
df  64 - 1 = 63
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 138
Two-Tailed t Test
Solution*
Ha:   3.25
  .01
df  64 - 1 = 63
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
-2.6561 0 2.6561 t
8 - 139
Two-Tailed t Test
Solution*
Ha:   3.25 X   3.238  3.25
t    .82
  .01 S .117
df  64 - 1 = 63 n 64
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
-2.6561 0 2.6561 t
8 - 140
Two-Tailed t Test
Solution*
Ha:   3.25 X   3.238  3.25
t    .82
  .01 S .117
df  64 - 1 = 63 n 64
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
-2.6561 0 2.6561 t
8 - 141
Two-Tailed t Test
Solution*
Ha:   3.25 X   3.238  3.25
t    .82
  .01 S .117
df  64 - 1 = 63 n 64
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
There is no evidence
-2.6561 0 2.6561 t average is not 3.25
8 - 142
One-Tailed t Test
of Mean ( Unknown)
8 - 143
One-Tailed t Test
Example
Is the average capacity of
batteries at least 140
ampere-hours? A random
sample of 20 batteries had
a mean of 138.47 & a
standard deviation of 2.66.
Assume a normal
distribution. Test at the .05
level.
8 - 144
One-Tailed t Test
Solution
H0: Test Statistic:
Ha:
=
df =
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 145
One-Tailed t Test
Solution
Ha:  < 140
=
df =
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 146
One-Tailed t Test
Solution
Ha:  < 140
 = .05
df = 20 - 1 = 19
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 147
One-Tailed t Test
Solution
Ha:  < 140
 = .05
df = 20 - 1 = 19
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Reject
.05 Conclusion:
-1.7291 0 t
8 - 148
One-Tailed t Test
Solution
Ha:  < 140 X   138.47  140
t   2.57
 = .05 S 2.66
df = 20 - 1 = 19 n 20
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Reject
.05 Conclusion:
-1.7291 0 t
8 - 149
One-Tailed t Test
Solution
Ha:  < 140 X   138.47  140
t   2.57
 = .05 S 2.66
df = 20 - 1 = 19 n 20
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
.05 Conclusion:
-1.7291 0 t
8 - 150
One-Tailed t Test
Solution
Ha:  < 140 X   138.47  140
t   2.57
 = .05 S 2.66
df = 20 - 1 = 19 n 20
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
.05 Conclusion:
There is evidence pop.
-1.7291 0 t average is less than 140
8 - 151
One-Tailed t Test
Thinking Challenge
You’re a marketing analyst for
Wal-Mart. Wal-Mart had teddy
bears on sale last week. The
weekly sales ($ 00) of bears
sold in 10 stores was: 8 11 0
4 7 8 10 5 8 3.
At the .05 level, is there
evidence that the average bear
sales per store is more than 5
($ 00)?
8 - 152
One-Tailed t Test
Solution*
H0: Test Statistic:
Ha:
=
df =
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 153
One-Tailed t Test
Solution*
Ha:  > 5
=
df =
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 154
One-Tailed t Test
Solution*
Ha:  > 5
 = .05
df = 10 - 1 = 9
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 155
One-Tailed t Test
Solution*
Ha:  > 5
 = .05
df = 10 - 1 = 9
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Reject
.05
Conclusion:
0 1.8331 t
8 - 156
One-Tailed t Test
Solution*
Ha:  > 5 X   6.4  5
t   131
.
 = .05 S 3.373
df = 10 - 1 = 9 n 10
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Reject
.05
Conclusion:
0 1.8331 t
8 - 157
One-Tailed t Test
Solution*
Ha:  > 5 X   6.4  5
t   131
.
 = .05 S 3.373
df = 10 - 1 = 9 n 10
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
.05
Conclusion:
0 1.8331 t
8 - 158
One-Tailed t Test
Solution*
Ha:  > 5 X   6.4  5
t   131
.
 = .05 S 3.373
df = 10 - 1 = 9 n 10
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
.05
Conclusion:
0 1.8331 t average is more than 5
8 - 159
Z Test of Proportion
8 - 160
Data Types
Data
Numerical Qualitative
Discrete Continuous
8 - 161
of Proportion
1. Approximated by
Normal Distribution
^
P(P )
npˆ  3 npˆ 1  pˆ  .3
.2
Excludes 0 and n
.1
^
2. Mean .0 P
 P  p .0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1.0
3. Standard Error
p0 1  p 0
 p^  where p0 = Population Proportion
n
8 - 162
Standardizing Sampling
Distribution of Proportion
^ ^
p  p p^ p  p0
Z 
 p^ p0 (1  p0)
Sampling n Standardized
Distribution Normal Distribution
 P^ z= 1
 P^ ^
P  Z= 0 Z
8 - 163
One
Population

(1 & 2 (1 & 2 (1 & 2 (1 & 2
8 - 164
One-Sample Z Test
for Proportion
8 - 165
One-Sample Z Test
for Proportion
1. Assumptions
 Two Categorical Outcomes
 Population Follows Binomial Distribution
 Normal Approximation Can Be Used
 npˆ  3 npˆ 1  pˆ  Does Not Contain 0 or n
8 - 166
One-Sample Z Test
for Proportion
1. Assumptions
 Two Categorical Outcomes
 Population Follows Binomial Distribution
 Normal Approximation Can Be Used
 npˆ  3 npˆ 1  pˆ  Does Not Contain 0 or n
2. Z-test statistic for proportion
p  p0 Hypothesized
Z
p0  (1  p0 ) population proportion
n
8 - 167
One-Proportion Z Test
Example
The present packaging
system produces 10%
defective cereal boxes.
Using a new system, a
random sample of 200
boxes had11 defects.
Does the new system
produce fewer defects?
Test at the .05 level.
8 - 168
Solution
H0: Test Statistic:
Ha:
=
n=
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 169
Solution
H0: p = .10 Test Statistic:
Ha: p < .10
=
n=
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 170
Solution
H0: p =.10 Test Statistic:
Ha: p < .10
 = .05
n = 200
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 171
Solution
Ha: p < .10
 = .05
n = 200
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Reject
.05
Conclusion:
-1.645 0 Z
8 - 172
Solution
11
Ha: p < .10  .10
p  p0 200
 = .05 Z    2.12
p0  (1  p0 ) .10  (1 .10)
n = 200 n 200
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Reject
.05
Conclusion:
-1.645 0 Z
8 - 173
Solution
11
Ha: p < .10  .10
p  p0 200
 = .05 Z    2.12
p0  (1  p0 ) .10  (1 .10)
n = 200 n 200
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
.05
Conclusion:
-1.645 0 Z
8 - 174
Solution
11
Ha: p < .10  .10
p  p0 200
 = .05 Z    2.12
p0  (1  p0 ) .10  (1 .10)
n = 200 n 200
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
.05
Conclusion:
There is evidence new
-1.645 0 Z system < 10% defective
8 - 175
Thinking Challenge
You’re an accounting manager.
A year-end audit showed 4%
of transactions had errors. You
implement new procedures. A
random sample of 500
transactions had 25 errors.
Has the proportion of incorrect
transactions changed at
the .05 level?
8 - 176
Solution*
H0: Test Statistic:
Ha:
=
n=
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 177
Solution*
Ha: p  .04
=
n=
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 178
Solution*
Ha: p  .04
 = .05
n = 500
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
Conclusion:
8 - 179
Solution*
Ha: p  .04
 = .05
n = 500
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
-1.96 0 1.96 Z
8 - 180
Solution*
Ha: p  .04 25
p  p0  .04
 = .05 Z  500  114
.
p0  (1  p0 ) .04  (1 .04)
n = 500 n 500
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
-1.96 0 1.96 Z
8 - 181
Solution*
Ha: p  .04 25
p  p0  .04
 = .05 Z  500  114
.
p0  (1  p0 ) .04  (1 .04)
n = 500 n 500
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
-1.96 0 1.96 Z
8 - 182
Solution*
Ha: p  .04 25
p  p0  .04
 = .05 Z  500  114
.
p0  (1  p0 ) .04  (1 .04)
n = 500 n 500
Critical Value(s):
Decision:
-1.96 0 1.96 Z proportion has
8 - 183 changed from 4%
One
Population

(1 & 2 (1 & 2 (1 & 2 (1 & 2
8 - 184
Confidence Intervals, Hypothesis
Tests, and p-values
All Start with Known Sampling Distribution for X
Confidence Interval
Pr( > distance than from ) =
 

X zcrit or tcrit
 Draw an interval of size around actual
 1- is the confidence level zcrit or tcrit X
P-Value 
 Assume true mean
 Pr( > measured distance) = p
 
For one-sided p-value, no absolute value

HypothesisXtest
 Compute critical value, see if farther away
 Or pick , If p < , reject the null hypothesis
X
 
Calculating Type II Error

Probabilities
8 - 186
Power of Test
1. Probability of Rejecting False H0

 Correct Decision
2. Designated 1 - 
3. Used in Determining Test Adequacy
4. Affected by
 True Value of Population Parameter
 Significance Level 
 Standard Deviation & Sample Size n
8 - 187
Finding Power
Step 1
Reject
Hypothesis:
n =
15/25 Do Not

H0: 0  368 Draw
Reject
H1: 0 < 368  = .05
0 = 368 X
8 - 188
Finding Power
Steps 2 & 3
Reject
Hypothesis:
n =
15/25 Do Not

H0: 0  368 Draw
Reject
H1: 0 < 368  = .05
0 = 368 X
‘True’ Situation:
1 = 360

Draw

 1-
Specify
8 - 189
1 = 360 X
Finding Power
Step 4
Reject
Hypothesis:
n =
15/25 Do Not

H0: 0  368 Draw
Reject
H1: 0 < 368  = .05
0 = 368 X
 15
1 = 360
 X L  0  Z
n
 368  1.64
25
Draw
 363.065
 
Specify
1 = 360 363.065 X
8 - 190
Finding Power
Step 5
Reject
Hypothesis:
n =
15/25 Do Not

H0: 0  368 Draw
Reject
H1: 0 < 368  = .05
0 = 368 X
 15
1 = 360
 X L  0  Z
n
 368  1.64
25
Draw
 = .154  363.065
  
Specify Z Table 1- =.846
1 = 360 363.065 X
8 - 191
Power Curves
Power H0:  0 Power H0:  0
Possible True Values for 1 Possible True Values for 1
Power H0:  =0
 = 368 in
Example
Possible True Values for 1
8 - 192
Conclusion
1. Distinguished Types of Hypotheses

2. Described Hypothesis Testing Process
3. Explained p-Value Concept
4. Solved Hypothesis Testing Problems
Based on a Single Sample
5. Explained Power of a Test
8 - 193
End of Chapter
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© 2003 Pearson Prentice Hall

Inferences Based on a Single Sample:

1. Distinguish Types of Hypotheses

Hypothesis Testing Concepts

1. A Belief about a I believe the mean GPA

© 1984-1994 T/Maker Co.

1. Opposite of Null Hypothesis

Is the population average amount of TV

Is the population average amount of TV

Is the average cost per hat less than or

Is the average amount spent in the

... if in fact this were

... if in fact this were

Hypothesis Testing Steps

 State H0  Set up critical values

 State Ha  Collect data

Mean Proportion Variance

Z Test t Test Z Test 2 Test

Mean Proportion Variance

Z Test t Test Z Test 2 Test

.025 .025 Conclusion:

.025 .025 Conclusion:

.025 .025 Conclusion:

.025 .025 Conclusion:

1.9 .4744 .4750 .4756

 1.9 .4744 .4750 .4756

Decision Making Risks

Innocent Correct Error Accept Type II

1. True Value of Population Parameter

3. Population Standard Deviation, 

1. Probability of Obtaining a Test Statistic More

p-value is P(Z  -1.50 or Z  1.50)

p-value is P(Z  -1.50 or Z  1.50)

1/2 p-Value 1/2 p-Value

p-value is P(Z  -1.50 or Z  1.50)

1/2 p-Value 1/2 p-Value

From Z table: Z value of sample

p-value is P(Z  -1.50 or Z  1.50)

1/2 p-Value 1/2 p-Value 

From Z table: Z value of sample

p-value is P(Z  -1.50 or Z  1.50) = .1336

From Z table: Z value of sample

1/2 p-Value = .0668 1/2 p-Value = .0668

1/2  = .025 1/2  = .025

1/2  = .025 1/2  = .025

Z value of From Z table:

Mean Proportion Variance

Z Test t Test Z Test 2 Test

.025 .025 Conclusion:

.025 .025 Conclusion:

.005 .005 Conclusion:

.005 .005 Conclusion:

Mean Proportion Variance

Z Test t Test Z Test 2 Test

.025 .025 Conclusion:

.025 .025 Conclusion:

Mean Proportion Variance

Z Test t Test Z Test 2 Test

Calculating Type II Error