Forecasting The Onset of Damaging Winds Associated With A Squall Line/Bow Echo Using The Mid-Altitude Radial Convergence (MARC) Signature
Forecasting The Onset of Damaging Winds Associated With A Squall Line/Bow Echo Using The Mid-Altitude Radial Convergence (MARC) Signature
By
Gary K. Schmocker
Ron W. Przybylinski
Introduction – Radar Based
Signatures of Damaging Winds
• Reflectivity
Characteristics of a
“distinctive” bow echo
(Fujita, Przybylinski &
Gery):
• Bowing of line echo
• WECs or RINs
• Strong low-level
reflectivity gradient
• Displaced max echo top
Two Examples of Bow Echoes with Strong
Low-Level Reflectivity Gradients and
Pronounced RINs
Introduction - Doppler Radar Based
Signatures of Damaging Winds
• High VIL values (better correlation to heavy rain/hail)
• Base Velocity >= 50kts at lowest elevation (limited range)
• Identification of vortices – strong circs. along a convective line can enhance low–mid level winds (RIJ)
- strongest wind damage often observed just south of the path of a cyclonic circ.
(convective line
typically accelerates
and/or “bows out”
south of a strong
cyclonic circ.)
Damaging Wind Precursors Identified from
Microburst Studies on Pulse Type Storms
(Eilts et al. -DDPDA)
• Rapidly descending reflectivity core
• Initial core development at a higher height than surrounding
storms
• Strong mid-altitude radial
convergence (>22 m/s) associated
with damaging winds in isolated
pulse type storms
Convergent Signatures in Organized
Convection - Supercells
• Deep Convergence Zone (DCZ) identified in supercells (Lemon et
al.) at the interface of the updraft/downdraft currents
- narrow zone of intense convergence and shear with an average depth
of 10 km
- damaging winds often occur along or just behind DCZ with
mesocyclones & gust front tornadoes along it
Convergent Signatures in Squall Line/Bow Echoes?
But first a review of squall line mesoscale airflow structures
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lsx/science/
newcomet.htm