The document discusses scenario planning, which involves creating plausible future scenarios to help develop strategic plans. It outlines the scenario planning process in 6 steps: 1) brainstorm future scenarios, 2) identify trends and driving forces, 3) create a template, 4) develop scenarios, 5) evaluate scenarios, and 6) update strategies accordingly. An example is given of automakers in the 1980s who drafted scenarios around oil prices and consumer values but failed to predict new Japanese competitors. Common pitfalls to avoid are overcomplicating scenarios and not looking far enough into the future.
The document discusses scenario planning, which involves creating plausible future scenarios to help develop strategic plans. It outlines the scenario planning process in 6 steps: 1) brainstorm future scenarios, 2) identify trends and driving forces, 3) create a template, 4) develop scenarios, 5) evaluate scenarios, and 6) update strategies accordingly. An example is given of automakers in the 1980s who drafted scenarios around oil prices and consumer values but failed to predict new Japanese competitors. Common pitfalls to avoid are overcomplicating scenarios and not looking far enough into the future.
The document discusses scenario planning, which involves creating plausible future scenarios to help develop strategic plans. It outlines the scenario planning process in 6 steps: 1) brainstorm future scenarios, 2) identify trends and driving forces, 3) create a template, 4) develop scenarios, 5) evaluate scenarios, and 6) update strategies accordingly. An example is given of automakers in the 1980s who drafted scenarios around oil prices and consumer values but failed to predict new Japanese competitors. Common pitfalls to avoid are overcomplicating scenarios and not looking far enough into the future.
The document discusses scenario planning, which involves creating plausible future scenarios to help develop strategic plans. It outlines the scenario planning process in 6 steps: 1) brainstorm future scenarios, 2) identify trends and driving forces, 3) create a template, 4) develop scenarios, 5) evaluate scenarios, and 6) update strategies accordingly. An example is given of automakers in the 1980s who drafted scenarios around oil prices and consumer values but failed to predict new Japanese competitors. Common pitfalls to avoid are overcomplicating scenarios and not looking far enough into the future.
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SWOT ANALYSIS
THE SWOT ANALYSIS
• Strength, Weakness, Opportunity, Threat. • A SWOT analysis guides the identify of an organization’s strengths and weaknesses (S- W), as well as broader opportunities and threats (O-T). • Developing a fuller awareness of the situation helps with both strategic planning and decision-making. WHEN TO USE SWOT?
A SWOT analysis can offer helpful perspectives at any stage of an effort. It might be used to: • Explore possibilities for new efforts or solutions to problems. • Make decisions about the best path for an initiative. Identifying opportunities for success in context of threats to success and can clarify directions and choices. • Determine where change is possible. If a business is at a juncture or turning point, an inventory of its strengths and weaknesses can reveal priorities as well as possibilities. • Adjust and refine plans mid-course. A new opportunity might open wider avenues, while a new threat could close a path that once existed. ELEMENTS OF SWOT? VIDEO PRESENTATION
How Do you Conduct a SWOT Analysis For Your
Business & Utilize it? | WordStream
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ets_5qSAo4 SWOT A N A LY S I S EXAMPLE BASED ON A R E S TA U R A N T SCENARIO PLANNING Helps to eliminate the two most common errors made in any strategic analysis - overprediction and underprediction of the company's future.
Scenarios give us a view on what can happen in
the future, but it does not provide us with the strategies to deal with them.
OVERVIEW The objective of this process is to determine fundamental patterns and uncertainties.
Therefore, the overall purpose is to build strategic
thinking that encourages variety Step 1: Brainstorm Future Scenarios (time frame) - Let's say you are developing a decade's scenario; you will look at the past ten years for reference. You need to consider the changes that occurred in your department, organization, industry, region, country, and even the world. You should foresee similar changes in the next ten years.
THE SCENARIO Step 2: Identify trends and driving forces - the apparent driving forces PLANNING are suppliers, customers, competitors, employees, shareholders, government and many more. PROCESS
Step 3: Create A Scenario Planning Template - Identify the driving
forces of the environment that is the key-factor you have listed. Step 4: Step 4: Develop a Scenario - Proper scenario development is equivalent to writing a movie scene. You need to build a plot, and then you need to develop your story around it. While building a scenario, you need to find the strength and weakness of your plan
THE SCENARIO Step 5: Evaluate a Scenario - think of everything that could potentially affect the issue: energy prices, the views of customers, the rate of advancement of PLANNING technology, the approach of government. PROCESS
Step 6: Update Strategies and Policies Accordingly - A month or two after
you implement the scenarios, you need to evaluate your strategic plan and update the policies according to the new market trends. FOR EXAMPLE
• In the early 80’s., the three major Detroit automakers at the time, wondered what the future would look like for their industry. • They drafted 4 plausible scenarios, depending on two possible uncertainties during those years: oil prices fluctuations and consumer values evolution overtime. • Using scenario planning, they all predicted the “Long live Detroit” scenario in which the whole automotive industry would thrive. Unfortunately for them, they didn’t see far enough to predict the coming of new competitors from Japan, which triggered off a big crisis in the automotive industry.
• Forbes: http://www.forbes.com/sites/stratfor/2015/01/08/scenario-planning-and-strategic-forec asting/4/#7a23216473f8 VIDEO PRESENTATION
What is the scenario planning process in a strategic plan?
SME Strategy Consulting
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezUbcR9IzC0 PITFALLS TO AVOID
• Don’t try indefinitely new combinations of uncertainties to build your
scenarios. Keep it simple and focus on two major uncertainties. • Another common mistake is to believe that you have to choose one particular scenario and build your strategy around it. Scenario planning is not about choosing just one option for the future but rather dealing with all of the possible outcomes to develop a strategy that will stand the test of all scenarios. • Also, when developing your different scenarios, try to not look at the short term that is to say example at your existing market, products or competitors. Do not hesitate to look far ahead, anticipating what the market and competitors are going to be over the next years. In a word, be creative! Strategy can be challenging but it doesn’t need to be complicated. It should connect the dots between how we define winning, the tough choices required to differentiate ourselves from the competition, and how we enable that strategy as an organization.
