Lecture 14&15

Fall 2004, CIS, Temple University
CIS527: Data Warehousing, Filtering, and

Mining
Lecture 7
 Decision Trees
Lecture slides taken from:

– Vipin Kumar (http://www-users.cs.umn.edu/~kumar/csci5980/index.html )
© Vipin Kumar CSci 5980 Spring 2004 1

Classification: Definition
 Given a collection of records (training set )

– Each record contains a set of attributes, one of the
attributes is the class.
 Find a model for class attribute as a function
of the values of other attributes.
 Goal: previously unseen records should be
assigned a class as accurately as possible.
– A test set is used to determine the accuracy of the
model. Usually, the given data set is divided into
training and test sets, with training set used to build
the model and test set used to validate it.

Illustrating Classification Task
Tid Attrib1 Attrib2 Attrib3 Class

Learning
1 Yes Large 125K No
algorithm
2 No Medium 100K No
3 No Small 70K No
4 Yes Medium 120K No

Induction
5 No Large 95K Yes
6 No Medium 60K No
7 Yes Large 220K No Learn

8 No Small 85K Yes Model
9 No Medium 75K No
10 No Small 90K Yes

Model
10
Training Set
Apply
Tid Attrib1 Attrib2 Attrib3 Class Model
11 No Small 55K ?
12 Yes Medium 80K ?
13 Yes Large 110K ? Deduction

14 No Small 95K ?
15 No Large 67K ?
10
Test Set

Examples of Classification Task
 Predicting tumor cells as benign or malignant
 Classifying credit card transactions

as legitimate or fraudulent
 Classifying secondary structures of protein

as alpha-helix, beta-sheet, or random
coil
 Categorizing news stories as finance,

weather, entertainment, sports, etc
Classification Techniques
 Decision Tree based Methods

 Rule-based Methods
 Memory based reasoning
 Neural Networks
 Naïve Bayes and Bayesian Belief Networks
 Support Vector Machines

Example of a Decision Tree
c al c al us
i i o
or or nu
t e g
t e g
n ti
a ss
ca ca co cl
Tid Refund Marital Taxable
Splitting Attributes
Status Income Cheat
1 Yes Single 125K No

2 No Married 100K No Refund
3 No Single 70K No
Yes No
4 Yes Married 120K No NO MarSt

5 No Divorced 95K Yes Married
Single, Divorced
6 No Married 60K No
7 Yes Divorced 220K No TaxInc NO
8 No Single 85K Yes < 80K > 80K
9 No Married 75K No
NO YES
10 No Single 90K Yes
10
Training Data Model: Decision Tree

Another Example of Decision Tree
c al c al us
i i o
or or nu
t e g
t e g
n ti
a ss Single,
ca ca co cl MarSt
Married Divorced
Status Income Cheat
NO Refund
1 Yes Single 125K No
Yes No
2 No Married 100K No
3 No Single 70K No NO TaxInc
4 Yes Married 120K No < 80K > 80K
5 No Divorced 95K Yes
NO YES
6 No Married 60K No
7 Yes Divorced 220K No
8 No Single 85K Yes
9 No Married 75K No There could be more than one tree that
10 No Single 90K Yes fits the same data!
10

Decision Tree Classification Task

Tree
1 Yes Large 125K No Induction
2 No Medium 100K No algorithm
3 No Small 70K No

Induction
5 No Large 95K Yes
6 No Medium 60K No

9 No Medium 75K No
10 No Small 90K Yes

Model
10
Training Set
Apply Decision
Model Tree
11 No Small 55K ?
12 Yes Medium 80K ?
13 Yes Large 110K ?

Deduction
14 No Small 95K ?
15 No Large 67K ?
10
Test Set

Apply Model to Test Data
Test Data
Start from the root of tree. Refund Marital Taxable
Status Income Cheat
No Married 80K ?
Refund 10
Yes No
NO MarSt
Single, Divorced Married
TaxInc NO
< 80K > 80K
NO YES

Test Data
Refund Marital Taxable
Status Income Cheat
No Married 80K ?
Refund 10
Yes No
NO MarSt
TaxInc NO
< 80K > 80K
NO YES

Test Data
Status Income Cheat
No Married 80K ?
Refund 10
Yes No
NO MarSt
TaxInc NO
< 80K > 80K
NO YES

Test Data
Status Income Cheat
No Married 80K ?
Refund 10
Yes No
NO MarSt
TaxInc NO
< 80K > 80K
NO YES

Test Data
Status Income Cheat
No Married 80K ?
Refund 10
Yes No
NO MarSt
TaxInc NO
< 80K > 80K
NO YES

Test Data
Status Income Cheat
No Married 80K ?
Refund 10
Yes No
NO MarSt
Single, Divorced Married Assign Cheat to “No”
TaxInc NO
< 80K > 80K
NO YES

Decision Tree Classification Task

Tree
1 Yes Large 125K No Induction
2 No Medium 100K No algorithm
3 No Small 70K No

Induction
5 No Large 95K Yes
6 No Medium 60K No

9 No Medium 75K No
10 No Small 90K Yes

Model
10
Training Set
Apply Decision
Model Tree
11 No Small 55K ?
12 Yes Medium 80K ?
13 Yes Large 110K ?

Deduction
14 No Small 95K ?
15 No Large 67K ?
10
Test Set

Decision Tree Induction
 Many Algorithms:
– Hunt’s Algorithm (one of the earliest)
– CART
– ID3, C4.5
– SLIQ,SPRINT

General Structure of Hunt’s Algorithm
 Let Dt be the set of training records Status Income Cheat
that reach a node t 1 Yes Single 125K No
 General Procedure: 2 No Married 100K No

3 No Single 70K No
– If Dt contains records that 4 Yes Married 120K No
belong the same class yt, then t 5 No Divorced 95K Yes
is a leaf node labeled as yt 6 No Married 60K No

7 Yes Divorced 220K No
– If Dt is an empty set, then t is a 8 No Single 85K Yes
leaf node labeled by the default 9 No Married 75K No
class, yd 10
10 No Single 90K Yes
– If Dt contains records that Dt

belong to more than one class,
use an attribute test to split the
data into smaller subsets. ?
Recursively apply the
procedure to each subset.

Hunt’s Algorithm
Refund
Don’t
Yes No
Cheat
Don’t Don’t
Cheat Cheat
Refund Refund
Yes No Yes No
Don’t Don’t Marital

Marital Cheat
Cheat Status Status
Single, Single,
Married Married
Divorced Divorced
Don’t Taxable Don’t

Cheat Cheat
Cheat Income
< 80K >= 80K
Don’t Cheat
Cheat
Tree Induction
 Greedy strategy.
– Split the records based on an attribute test
that optimizes certain criterion.
 Issues
– Determine how to split the records
How to specify the attribute test condition?
How to determine the best split?
– Determine when to stop splitting

How to Specify Test Condition?
 Depends on attribute types

– Nominal
– Ordinal
– Continuous
 Depends on number of ways to split

– 2-way split
– Multi-way split

Splitting Based on Nominal Attributes
 Multi-way split: Use as many partitions as distinct

values.
CarType
Family Luxury
Sports
 Binary split: Divides values into two subsets.

Need to find optimal partitioning.
CarType CarType
{Sports, OR {Family,
Luxury} {Family} Luxury} {Sports}

Splitting Based on Ordinal Attributes
 Multi-way split: Use as many partitions as distinct

values.
Size
Small Large
Medium
 Binary split: Divides values into two subsets.

Need to find optimal partitioning.
Size Size
{Small,
{Large}
hay {Medium,
{Small}
Medium} Large}
Size
{Small,
 What about this split? Large} {Medium}

Splitting Based on Continuous Attributes
 Different ways of handling

– Discretization to form an ordinal categorical
attribute
 Static – discretize once at the beginning
 Dynamic – ranges can be found by equal interval
bucketing, equal frequency bucketing
(percentiles), or clustering.
– Binary Decision: (A < v) or (A  v)

 consider all possible splits and finds the best cut
 can be more compute intensive

Splitting Based on Continuous Attributes
Taxable Taxable
Income Income?
> 80K?
< 10K > 80K
Yes No
[10K,25K) [25K,50K) [50K,80K)
(i) Binary split (ii) Multi-way split

Tree Induction
 Issues

How to determine the Best Split
Before Splitting: 10 records of class 0,

10 records of class 1
Own Car Student

Car? Type? ID?
Yes No Family Luxury c1 c20

c10 c11
Sports
C0: 6
C1: 4
C0: 4
C1: 6
C0: 1
C1: 3
C0: 8
C1: 0
C0: 1
C1: 7
C0: 1
C1: 0
... C0: 1
C1: 0
C0: 0
C1: 1
... C0: 0
C1: 1
Which test condition is the best?

How to determine the Best Split
 Greedy approach:
– Nodes with homogeneous class distribution
are preferred
 Need a measure of node impurity:
C0: 5 C0: 9
C1: 5 C1: 1
Non-homogeneous, Homogeneous,
High degree of impurity Low degree of impurity

Measures of Node Impurity
 Gini Index
 Entropy
 Misclassification error

Measure of Impurity: GINI
 Gini Index for a given node t :
GINI (t )  1   [ p ( j | t )]2
j
(NOTE: p( j | t) is the relative frequency of class j at node t).
– Maximum (1 - 1/nc) when records are equally

distributed among all classes, implying least interesting
information
– Minimum (0.0) when all records belong to one class,
implying most interesting information
C1 0 C1 1 C1 2 C1 3
C2 6 C2 5 C2 4 C2 3
Gini=0.000 Gini=0.278 Gini=0.444 Gini=0.500

Examples for computing GINI
GINI (t )  1   [ p ( j | t )]2
j
C1 0 P(C1) = 0/6 = 0 P(C2) = 6/6 = 1

C2 6 Gini = 1 – P(C1)2 – P(C2)2 = 1 – 0 – 1 = 0
C1 1 P(C1) = 1/6 P(C2) = 5/6

C2 5 Gini = 1 – (1/6)2 – (5/6)2 = 0.278
C1 2 P(C1) = 2/6 P(C2) = 4/6

C2 4 Gini = 1 – (2/6)2 – (4/6)2 = 0.444

Splitting Based on GINI
 Used in CART, SLIQ, SPRINT.

 When a node p is split into k partitions (children), the
quality of split is computed as,
k
ni
GINI split   GINI (i )
i 1 n
where, ni = number of records at child i,

n = number of records at node p.

Binary Attributes: Computing GINI
Index
 Splits into two partitions

 Effect of Weighing partitions:
– Larger and Purer Partitions are sought for.
Parent
B? C1 6
Yes No C2 6
Gini = 0.500
Node N1 Node N2
Gini(N1)
= 1 – (5/6)2 – (2/6)2 N1 N2 Gini(Children)
= 0.194
C1 5 1 = 7/12 * 0.194 +
Gini(N2) C2 2 4 5/12 * 0.528
= 1 – (1/6)2 – (4/6)2 Gini=0.333 = 0.333
= 0.528
Categorical Attributes: Computing Gini Index
 For each distinct value, gather counts for each class in

the dataset
 Use the count matrix to make decisions
Multi-way split Two-way split

(find best partition of values)
CarType CarType CarType

Family Sports Luxury {Sports, {Family,
{Family} {Sports}
Luxury} Luxury}
C1 1 2 1 C1 C1
3 1 2 2
C2 4 1 1 C2 2 4 C2 1 5
Gini 0.393 Gini 0.400 Gini 0.419

Continuous Attributes: Computing Gini Index
 Use Binary Decisions based on one

value
 Several Choices for the splitting value
– Number of possible splitting values
= Number of distinct values
 Each splitting value has a count matrix
associated with it
– Class counts in each of the
partitions, A < v and A  v
 Simple method to choose best v
– For each v, scan the database to
gather count matrix and compute Taxable
Income
its Gini index
> 80K?
– Computationally Inefficient!
Repetition of work. Yes No

Continuous Attributes: Computing Gini Index...
 For efficient computation: for each attribute,

– Sort the attribute on values
– Linearly scan these values, each time updating the count matrix and
computing gini index
– Choose the split position that has the least gini index
Cheat No No No Yes Yes Yes No No No No

Taxable Income
Các giá trị được 60 70 75 85 90 95 100 120 125 220

sắp xếp
Các vị trí phân chia 55 65 72 80 87 92 97 110 122 172 230
<= > <= > <= > <= > <= > <= > <= > <= > <= > <= > <= >
Yes 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 1 2 2 1 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0 3 0
No 0 7 1 6 2 5 3 4 3 4 3 4 3 4 4 3 5 2 6 1 7 0
Gini 0.420 0.400 0.375 0.343 0.417 0.400 0.300 0.343 0.375 0.400 0.420

Alternative Splitting Criteria based on INFO
 Entropy at a given node t:

Entropy (t )    p( j | t ) log p( j | t )
j
(NOTE: p( j | t) is the relative frequency of class j at node t).

– Measures homogeneity of a node.
 Maximum (log nc) when records are equally distributed
among all classes implying least information
 Minimum (0.0) when all records belong to one class,
implying most information
– Entropy based computations are similar to the
GINI index computations
Examples for computing Entropy
Entropy (t )    p ( j | t ) log p ( j | t )
j 2
C1 0 P(C1) = 0/6 = 0 P(C2) = 6/6 = 1

C2 6 Entropy = – 0 log 0 – 1 log 1 = – 0 – 0 = 0
C1 1 P(C1) = 1/6 P(C2) = 5/6

C2 5 Entropy = – (1/6) log2 (1/6) – (5/6) log2 (1/6) = 0.65
C1 2 P(C1) = 2/6 P(C2) = 4/6

C2 4 Entropy = – (2/6) log2 (2/6) – (4/6) log2 (4/6) = 0.92

Splitting Based on INFO...
 Information Gain:
 n  k
GAIN  Entropy ( p )    Entropy (i )  i
 n 
split i 1
Parent Node, p is split into k partitions;

ni is number of records in partition i
– Measures Reduction in Entropy achieved because of
the split. Choose the split that achieves most reduction
(maximizes GAIN)
– Used in ID3 and C4.5
– Disadvantage: Tends to prefer splits that result in large
number of partitions, each being small but pure.

Splitting Based on INFO...
 Gain Ratio:
GAIN n n
GainRATIO 
k
SplitINFO    log
Split i i
SplitINFO n n
split
i 1
Parent Node, p is split into k partitions

ni is the number of records in partition i
– Adjusts Information Gain by the entropy of the

partitioning (SplitINFO). Higher entropy partitioning
(large number of small partitions) is penalized!
– Used in C4.5
– Designed to overcome the disadvantage of Information
Gain
Splitting Criteria based on Classification Error
 Classification error at a node t :
Error (t )  1  max P (i | t ) i
 Measures misclassification error made by a node.

 Maximum (1 - 1/nc) when records are equally distributed
among all classes, implying least interesting information
 Minimum (0.0) when all records belong to one class, implying
most interesting information

Examples for Computing Error
Error (t )  1  max P(i | t )

i
C1 0 P(C1) = 0/6 = 0 P(C2) = 6/6 = 1

C2 6 Error = 1 – max (0, 1) = 1 – 1 = 0
C1 1 P(C1) = 1/6 P(C2) = 5/6

C2 5 Error = 1 – max (1/6, 5/6) = 1 – 5/6 = 1/6
C1 2 P(C1) = 2/6 P(C2) = 4/6

C2 4 Error = 1 – max (2/6, 4/6) = 1 – 4/6 = 1/3

Comparison among Splitting Criteria
For a 2-class problem:

Tree Induction
 Issues

Stopping Criteria for Tree Induction
 Stop expanding a node when all the records

belong to the same class
 Stop expanding a node when all the records have

similar attribute values
 Early termination (to be discussed later)

Decision Tree Based Classification
 Advantages:
– Inexpensive to construct
– Extremely fast at classifying unknown records
– Easy to interpret for small-sized trees
– Accuracy is comparable to other classification
techniques for many simple data sets

Example: C4.5
 Simple depth-first construction.

 Uses Information Gain
 Sorts Continuous Attributes at each node.
 Needs entire data to fit in memory.
 Unsuitable for Large Datasets.
– Needs out-of-core sorting.
 You can download the software from:

http://www.cse.unsw.edu.au/~quinlan/c4.5r8.tar.gz

Practical Issues of Classification
 Underfitting and Overfitting
 Missing Values
 Costs of Classification

Underfitting and Overfitting (Example)
500 circular and 500

triangular data points.
Circular points:
0.5  sqrt(x12+x22)  1
Triangular points:
sqrt(x12+x22) > 0.5 or
sqrt(x12+x22) < 1

Underfitting and Overfitting
Overfitting
Underfitting: when model is too simple, both training and test errors are large

Overfitting due to Noise
Decision boundary is distorted by noise point

Overfitting due to Insufficient Examples
Lack of data points in the lower half of the diagram makes it difficult
to predict correctly the class labels of that region
- Insufficient number of training records in the region causes the
decision tree to predict the test examples using other training
records that are irrelevant to the classification task
Notes on Overfitting
 Overfitting results in decision trees that are more

complex than necessary
 Training error no longer provides a good estimate

of how well the tree will perform on previously
unseen records
 Need new ways for estimating errors

Estimating Generalization Errors
 Re-substitution errors: error on training ( e(t) )
 Generalization errors: error on testing ( e’(t))
 Methods for estimating generalization errors:
– Optimistic approach: e’(t) = e(t)
– Pessimistic approach:
 For each leaf node: e’(t) = (e(t)+0.5)
 Total errors: e’(T) = e(T) + N  0.5 (N: number of leaf nodes)
 For a tree with 30 leaf nodes and 10 errors on training
(out of 1000 instances):
Training error = 10/1000 = 1%
Generalization error = (10 + 300.5)/1000 = 2.5%
– Reduced error pruning (REP):
 uses validation data set to estimate generalization
error

Occam’s Razor
 Given two models of similar generalization errors,

one should prefer the simpler model over the
more complex model
 For complex models, there is a greater chance

that it was fitted accidentally by errors in data
 Therefore, one should include model complexity

when evaluating a model

How to Address Overfitting
 Pre-Pruning (Early Stopping Rule)

– Stop the algorithm before it becomes a fully-grown tree
– Typical stopping conditions for a node:
 Stop if all instances belong to the same class
 Stop if all the attribute values are the same
– More restrictive conditions:
 Stop if number of instances is less than some user-specified
threshold
 Stop if class distribution of instances are independent of the
available features (e.g., using  2 test)
 Stop if expanding the current node does not improve impurity
measures (e.g., Gini or information gain).

How to Address Overfitting…
 Post-pruning
– Grow decision tree to its entirety
– Trim the nodes of the decision tree in a
bottom-up fashion
– If generalization error improves after trimming,
replace sub-tree by a leaf node.
– Class label of leaf node is determined from
majority class of instances in the sub-tree
– Can use MDL for post-pruning

Example of Post-Pruning
Training Error (Before splitting) = 10/30
Class = Yes 20 Pessimistic error = (10 + 0.5)/30 = 10.5/30
Class = No 10 Training Error (After splitting) = 9/30
Error = 10/30 Pessimistic error (After splitting)

= (9 + 4  0.5)/30 = 11/30
PRUNE!
A?
A1 A4
A2 A3
Class = Yes 8 Class = Yes 3 Class = Yes 4 Class = Yes 5

Class = No 4 Class = No 4 Class = No 1 Class = No 1

Examples of Post-pruning
– Optimistic error? Case 1:
Don’t prune for both cases
C0: 11 C0: 2
– Pessimistic error? C1: 3 C1: 4
Don’t prune case 1, prune case 2
– Reduced error pruning?

Case 2:
Depends on validation set
C0: 14 C0: 2
C1: 3 C1: 2

Expressiveness
 Decision tree provides expressive representation for

learning discrete-valued function
– But they do not generalize well to certain types of
Boolean functions
 Example: parity function:
– Class = 1 if there is an even number of Boolean attributes with truth
value = True
– Class = 0 if there is an odd number of Boolean attributes with truth
value = True
 For accurate modeling, must have a complete tree
 Not expressive enough for modeling continuous variables

– Particularly when test condition involves only a single
attribute at-a-time

Decision Boundary
1
0.9
0.8
x < 0.43?
0.7
Yes No
0.6
y < 0.33?
y
0.5 y < 0.47?

0.4
0.3
Yes No Yes No
0.2
:4 :0 :0 :4
0.1 :0 :4 :3 :0
0
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
x
• Border line between two neighboring regions of different classes is
known as decision boundary
• Decision boundary is parallel to axes because test condition involves
a single attribute at-a-time

Oblique Decision Trees
x+y<1
Class = + Class =
• Test condition may involve multiple attributes

• More expressive representation
• Finding optimal test condition is computationally expensive

Model Evaluation
 Metrics for Performance Evaluation

– How to evaluate the performance of a model?
 Methods for Performance Evaluation

– How to obtain reliable estimates?
 Methods for Model Comparison

– How to compare the relative performance
among competing models?

Metrics for Performance Evaluation
 Focus on the predictive capability of a model

– Rather than how fast it takes to classify or
build models, scalability, etc.
 Confusion Matrix:
PREDICTED CLASS
Class=Yes Class=No
a: TP (true positive)
b: FN (false negative)
Class=Yes a b
ACTUAL c: FP (false positive)
CLASS Class=No c d
d: TN (true negative)

Metrics for Performance Evaluation…
PREDICTED CLASS
Class=Yes Class=No
Class=Yes a b
ACTUAL (TP) (FN)
CLASS
Class=No c d
(FP) (TN)
 Most widely-used metric:
ad TP  TN
Đô chính xác  
a  b  c  d TP  TN  FP  FN

Limitation of Accuracy
 Consider a 2-class problem

– Number of Class 0 examples = 9990
– Number of Class 1 examples = 10
 If model predicts everything to be class 0,

accuracy is 9990/10000 = 99.9 %
– Accuracy is misleading because model does
not detect any class 1 example

Cost Matrix
PREDICTED CLASS
C(i|j) Class=Yes Class=No
Class=Yes C(Yes|Yes) C(No|Yes)

ACTUAL
CLASS Class=No C(Yes|No) C(No|No)
C(i|j): Cost of misclassifying class j example as class i

Computing Cost of Classification
Cost PREDICTED CLASS

Matrix
C(i|j) + -
ACTUAL
+ -1 100
CLASS
- 1 0
Model M1 PREDICTED CLASS Model M2 PREDICTED CLASS
+ - + -
ACTUAL ACTUAL
+ 150 40 + 250 45
CLASS CLASS
- 60 250 - 5 200
Accuracy = 80% Accuracy = 90%

Cost = 3910 Cost = 4255
Cost vs Accuracy
Count PREDICTED CLASS Accuracy is proportional to cost if

1. C(Yes|No)=C(No|Yes) = q
Class=Yes Class=No
2. C(Yes|Yes)=C(No|No) = p
Class=Yes a b
ACTUAL N=a+b+c+d
CLASS Class=No c d
Accuracy = (a + d)/N
Cost PREDICTED CLASS

Cost = p (a + d) + q (b + c)
Class=Yes Class=No
= p (a + d) + q (N – a – d)
Class=Yes p q = q N – (q – p)(a + d)
ACTUAL
CLASS Class=No = N [q – (q-p)  Accuracy]
q p

Cost-Sensitive Measures
a
Precision (p) 
ac
a
Recall (r) 
ab
2rp 2a
F - measure (F)  
r  p 2a  b  c
 Precision is biased towards C(Yes|Yes) & C(Yes|No)
 Recall is biased towards C(Yes|Yes) & C(No|Yes)
 F-measure is biased towards all except C(No|No)
wa  w d
Weighted Accuracy  1 4
wa  wb wc w d
1 2 3 4

Model Evaluation




Methods for Performance Evaluation
 How to obtain a reliable estimate of

performance?
 Performance of a model may depend on other

factors besides the learning algorithm:
– Class distribution
– Cost of misclassification
– Size of training and test sets

Learning Curve
 Learning curve shows

how accuracy changes
with varying sample size
 Requires a sampling
schedule for creating
learning curve:
 Arithmetic sampling
(Langley, et al)
 Geometric sampling
(Provost et al)
Effect of small sample size:

- Bias in the estimate
- Variance of estimate

Methods of Estimation
 Holdout
– Reserve 2/3 for training and 1/3 for testing
 Random subsampling
– Repeated holdout
 Cross validation
– Partition data into k disjoint subsets
– k-fold: train on k-1 partitions, test on the remaining one
– Leave-one-out: k=n
 Stratified sampling
– oversampling vs undersampling
 Bootstrap
– Sampling with replacement
Model Evaluation




Test of Significance
 Given two models:

– Model M1: accuracy = 85%, tested on 30 instances
– Model M2: accuracy = 75%, tested on 5000 instances
 Can we say M1 is better than M2?

– How much confidence can we place on accuracy of
M1 and M2?
– Can the difference in performance measure be
explained as a result of random fluctuations in the test
set?

Confidence Interval for Accuracy
 Prediction can be regarded as a Bernoulli trial

– A Bernoulli trial has 2 possible outcomes
– Possible outcomes for prediction: correct or wrong
– Collection of Bernoulli trials has a Binomial distribution:
 x  Bin(N, p) x: number of correct predictions
 e.g: Toss a fair coin 50 times, how many heads would turn up?
Expected number of heads = Np = 50  0.5 = 25
 Given x (# of correct predictions) or equivalently,

acc=x/N, and N (# of test instances),
Can we predict p (true accuracy of model)?

Area = 1 - 
 For large test sets (N > 30),
– acc has a normal distribution
with mean p and variance
p(1-p)/N
acc  p
P( Z  Z )
p (1  p ) / N
 /2 1 / 2
 1 Z/2 Z1-  /2
 Confidence Interval for p:

2  N  acc  Z  Z  4  N  acc  4  N  acc
2 2 2
p  /2  /2
2( N  Z ) 2
 /2

 Consider a model that produces an accuracy of

80% when evaluated on 100 test instances:
– N=100, acc = 0.8 1- Z
– Let 1- = 0.95 (95% confidence)
0.99 2.58
– From probability table, Z/2=1.96
0.98 2.33
N 50 100 500 1000 5000 0.95 1.96
p(lower) 0.670 0.711 0.763 0.774 0.789 0.90 1.65
p(upper) 0.888 0.866 0.833 0.824 0.811

Comparing Performance of 2 Models
 Given two models, say M1 and M2, which is

better?
– M1 is tested on D1 (size=n1), found error rate = e1
– M2 is tested on D2 (size=n2), found error rate = e2
– Assume D1 and D2 are independent
– If n1 and n2 are sufficiently large, then
e1 ~ N 1 ,  1 
e2 ~ N 2 ,  2 
e (1  e )
– Approximate: ˆ 
i i
n
i

Comparing Performance of 2 Models
 To test if performance difference is statistically

significant: d = e1 – e2
– d ~ N(dt,t) where dt is the true difference
– Since D1 and D2 are independent, their variance adds
up:
      ˆ  ˆ
t
2
1
2
2
2
1
2 2
e1(1  e1) e2(1  e2)

 
n1 n2
– At (1-) confidence level, d  d  Z ˆ

t  /2 t

An Illustrative Example
 Given: M1: n1 = 30, e1 = 0.15

M2: n2 = 5000, e2 = 0.25
 d = |e2 – e1| = 0.1 (2-sided test)
0.15(1  0.15) 0.25(1  0.25)

ˆ    0.0043
30 5000
d
 At 95% confidence level, Z/2=1.96
d  0.100  1.96  0.0043  0.100  0.128

t
=> Interval contains 0 => difference may not be

statistically significant

Lecture 14&15

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Fall 2004, CIS, Temple University

CIS527: Data Warehousing, Filtering, and

Lecture slides taken from:

© Vipin Kumar CSci 5980 Spring 2004 1

 Given a collection of records (training set )

© Vipin Kumar CSci 5980 Spring 2004 2

Tid Attrib1 Attrib2 Attrib3 Class

4 Yes Medium 120K No

7 Yes Large 220K No Learn

10 No Small 90K Yes

12 Yes Medium 80K ?

13 Yes Large 110K ? Deduction

© Vipin Kumar CSci 5980 Spring 2004 3

 Predicting tumor cells as benign or malignant

 Classifying credit card transactions

 Classifying secondary structures of protein

 Categorizing news stories as finance,

 Decision Tree based Methods

© Vipin Kumar CSci 5980 Spring 2004 5

1 Yes Single 125K No

4 Yes Married 120K No NO MarSt

Training Data Model: Decision Tree

© Vipin Kumar CSci 5980 Spring 2004 6

© Vipin Kumar CSci 5980 Spring 2004 7

Tid Attrib1 Attrib2 Attrib3 Class

4 Yes Medium 120K No

7 Yes Large 220K No Learn

10 No Small 90K Yes

12 Yes Medium 80K ?

13 Yes Large 110K ?

© Vipin Kumar CSci 5980 Spring 2004 8

© Vipin Kumar CSci 5980 Spring 2004 9

© Vipin Kumar CSci 5980 Spring 2004 10

© Vipin Kumar CSci 5980 Spring 2004 11

© Vipin Kumar CSci 5980 Spring 2004 12

© Vipin Kumar CSci 5980 Spring 2004 13

© Vipin Kumar CSci 5980 Spring 2004 14

Tid Attrib1 Attrib2 Attrib3 Class

4 Yes Medium 120K No

7 Yes Large 220K No Learn

10 No Small 90K Yes

12 Yes Medium 80K ?

13 Yes Large 110K ?

© Vipin Kumar CSci 5980 Spring 2004 15

© Vipin Kumar CSci 5980 Spring 2004 16

that reach a node t 1 Yes Single 125K No

 General Procedure: 2 No Married 100K No

is a leaf node labeled as yt 6 No Married 60K No

– If Dt contains records that Dt

© Vipin Kumar CSci 5980 Spring 2004 17

Don’t Don’t Marital

Don’t Taxable Don’t

– Determine when to stop splitting

© Vipin Kumar CSci 5980 Spring 2004 19

 Depends on attribute types

 Depends on number of ways to split

© Vipin Kumar CSci 5980 Spring 2004 20