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    Self Evaluation Bias

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    Yash Pokerna
    People exhibit several types of self-evaluation biases. They include overconfidence biases where people overestimate their abilities, performance levels, and chances of success. Another bias is self-serving bias, where people take credit for successes but blame external factors for failures. Additionally, people exhibit projection bias by incorrectly expecting their future preferences to match their current preferences. For example, people hungry at the grocery store buy unhealthy snacks thinking their future hunger levels will match their present hunger, when in fact hunger levels change over time.

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    Self Evaluation Bias

    Uploaded by

    Yash Pokerna
    29 views4 pages
    People exhibit several types of self-evaluation biases. They include overconfidence biases where people overestimate their abilities, performance levels, and chances of success. Another bias is self-serving bias, where people take credit for successes but blame external factors for failures. Additionally, people exhibit projection bias by incorrectly expecting their future preferences to match their current preferences. For example, people hungry at the grocery store buy unhealthy snacks thinking their future hunger levels will match their present hunger, when in fact hunger levels change over time.

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    People exhibit several types of self-evaluation biases. They include overconfidence biases where people overestimate their abilities, performance levels, and chances of success. Another bias is self-serving bias, where people take credit for successes but blame external factors for failures. Additionally, people exhibit projection bias by incorrectly expecting their future preferences to match their current preferences. For example, people hungry at the grocery store buy unhealthy snacks thinking their future hunger levels will match their present hunger, when in fact hunger levels change over time.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
    29 views4 pages

    Self Evaluation Bias

    Uploaded by

    Yash Pokerna
    People exhibit several types of self-evaluation biases. They include overconfidence biases where people overestimate their abilities, performance levels, and chances of success. Another bias is self-serving bias, where people take credit for successes but blame external factors for failures. Additionally, people exhibit projection bias by incorrectly expecting their future preferences to match their current preferences. For example, people hungry at the grocery store buy unhealthy snacks thinking their future hunger levels will match their present hunger, when in fact hunger levels change over time.

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
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    SELF EVALUATION BIAS

    • Overconfidence:
    Overestimation: This relates to overestimation of one’s actual ability, performance, level of control or
    chance of success. People Overestimate their abilities to perform various tasks, overestimate how
    quickly they can finish a project. Eg: overestimate their abilities to manage companies in the case of
    CEOs
    Over placement:This aspect of overconfidence is sometimes referred to as the ‘better-than-average’
    (BTA) effect. well over half of survey respondents typically rate themselves in the top 50%
    Over precision: This refers to excessive certainty regarding the accuracy of one’s beliefs. Men were
    more overconfident in this respect than women.
    • Under confidence:Empirical studies have sometimes found conflicting results, in that sometimes
    people underestimate their abilities, control, and also under place their performance relative to
    others (‘hard-easy’ effect )
    • Self-serving bias:  self-serving bias is the common habit of a person taking credit for positive
    events or outcomes, but blaming outside factors for negative events. A vendor accepting praise
    for the on-time delivery of materials one week but blaming shipping freight issues for other
    delayed packages the next
    • The Dunning-Kruger effect:The Dunning-Kruger effect is a type of psychological bias. A classic
    example of the Dunning-Kruger effect would be an amateur chess player overestimates their
    performance in the upcoming chess tournament compared to their competent counterparts
    Self Projection bias
    • Another kind of bias where people have systematically
    incorrect beliefs is that they expect their future
    preferences to be too close to the present ones.
    • For example, we may have learned from experience not to
    go to the supermarket when we are hungry – we tend to
    buy all kinds of junk that we don’t normally eat or want to
    eat, and not only is our bill higher than normal but we also
    end up with stuff we don’t consume or don’t want to
    consume. This happens because at the time of shopping
    we incorrectly anticipate that our future hunger will be as
    great as it is now.
    • The term ‘projection bias’ was introduced by Loewenstein,
    O’Donoghue and Rabin (2003) to describe this phenomenon.
    They proposed a simple model as follows: assume that utility u is
    a function of consumption c and of state variable s (which
    incorporates tastes or preferences), so that
    u = u(c, s)
    The current state is s and the (unknown) future state is s^. Then,
    when predicting the future utility û(c, s), a person with projection
    bias expects utility
    û(c, s) = (1 – α)u(c, s) + α u(c, s^) (4.2)
    whereas the person without projection bias (who has complete
    knowledge about the future state s) has expected utility
    û(c, s) = u(c, s).
    The parameter α (which must be between 0 and 1) measures the
    extent of projection bias, so that if α = 0 there is no projection bias,
    and if = 1 there is full projection bias.
    • Read and van Leeuwen (1998) confirmed this effect
    in a study of office workers. These workers were
    asked to select a healthy snack or an unhealthy
    snack to be delivered a week later (in the late
    afternoon). One group of workers was asked the
    question at a time when they may have been
    hungry, in the late afternoon, and 78% chose an
    unhealthy snack. The other group was asked the
    same question after lunch, when they were probably
    satiated, and only 42% chose the unhealthy snack.

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