Constructing a probability tree

A tree diagram allows us to represent all the different possible sequences of outcomes
in one diagram. Suppose we wanted to represent two throws of an (unfair) coin:

#3 This ‘path’ through

the tree represents
throwing Heads
1st throw 2nd throw
𝐻 followed by Tails
(‘HT’). Any sequence
0.6 of outcomes can be
represented by a
𝐻 single path from the
0.6 left of the tree to
0.4 𝑇 somewhere on the
right.

𝐻
0.6 #4 We can put
probabilities on the
0.4 𝑇 branches to indicate
the probability of that
#1 We start here and move 0.4 single outcome
from left to right. The #2 We might have thrown a Heads.
𝑇 happening. The
‘branches’ represent that we probability of
Suppose we threw the coin a second
might throws a Heads (H) or throwing a Heads
time. Again, we might throw a Heads
Tails (T) on our first throw. (whether 1st or 2nd
or Tails, so the tree again ‘branches
throw) is 0.6.
out’ into these two possibilities.
With or without replacement

...with replacement:
The item is returned before another is chosen.
The probability of each event on each trial is
fixed.
...without replacement:
The item is not returned.
•Total items decreases by 1 each time.
•Number of items of this type decreases by 1.

Note that if the question doesn’t specify which, e.g. “You pick two balls from a
bag”, then PRESUME WITHOUT REPLACEMENT.
Monday 23 October 2023

Probability Tree Diagrams

In a bag there are 12 blue and 8 red sweets. Draw a Tree Diagram to show all possible outcomes
when 2 sweets are drawn out and are replaced.

𝟏𝟐
P(B, B)
𝟐𝟎
𝟏𝟐
𝟐𝟎
Blue 𝟖
𝟐𝟎 P(B, R)

𝟏𝟐 P(R, B) When the question says

Red 𝟐𝟎 it is replaced, it simply
𝟖 means the sweet is put
𝟐𝟎 back into the bag.
𝟖
𝟐𝟎 P(R, R)
Monday 23 October 2023

Probability Tree Diagrams

In a bag there are 12 blue and 8 red sweets. Draw a Tree Diagram to show all possible outcomes
when 2 sweets are drawn out and are replaced.

𝟏𝟐 𝟏𝟐 𝟏𝟐 𝟏𝟒𝟒 𝟗
𝟐𝟎
P(B, B) ×
𝟐𝟎
¿ ¿
𝟐𝟎 𝟒𝟎𝟎 𝟐𝟓
𝟏𝟐
𝟐𝟎
Blue 𝟖 𝟏𝟐 𝟖 𝟗𝟔 𝟔
𝟐𝟎 P(B, R) ׿ ¿
𝟐𝟎 𝟐𝟎𝟒𝟎𝟎 𝟐𝟓
𝟏𝟐 𝟖 𝟏𝟐 𝟗𝟔 𝟔
P(R, B) ×
𝟐𝟎
¿ ¿
𝟐𝟎𝟒𝟎𝟎 𝟐𝟓
Red 𝟐𝟎
𝟖 Check probabilities
𝟐𝟎 add up to 1
𝟖
𝟖 𝟖 𝟔𝟒 𝟒
𝟐𝟎 P(R, R) × ¿ ¿
𝟐𝟎 𝟐𝟎𝟒𝟎𝟎 𝟐𝟓
Monday 23 October 2023

Probability Tree Diagrams

In a bag there are 12 blue and 8 red sweets. Draw a Tree Diagram to show all possible outcomes
when 2 sweets are drawn out and are replaced.

𝟏𝟐 𝟗
P(B, B) ¿
𝟐𝟎 𝟐𝟓 What is the probability of picking
𝟏𝟐 two sweets of the same colour?
𝟐𝟎

+¿
Blue 𝟖 𝟔
𝟐𝟎 P(B, R) ¿ 𝟐𝟓 P(B, B) P(R, R)

+¿
𝟏𝟐 𝟔 𝟗 𝟒
P(R, B) ¿
𝟐𝟎 𝟐𝟓
Red 𝟐𝟓 𝟐𝟓
𝟖
𝟐𝟎 𝟏𝟑
𝟖 ¿
𝟒 𝟐𝟓
𝟐𝟎 P(R, R) ¿
𝟐𝟓
Monday 23 October 2023

Probability Tree Diagrams

In a bag there are 12 blue and 8 red sweets. Draw a Tree Diagram to show all possible outcomes
when 2 sweets are drawn out and are replaced.

𝟏𝟐 𝟗
P(B, B) ¿
𝟐𝟎 𝟐𝟓 What is the probability of picking
𝟏𝟐 two sweets that are different
colours?
𝟐𝟎

+¿
Blue 𝟖 𝟔
𝟐𝟎 P(B, R) ¿ 𝟐𝟓 P(B, R) P(R, B)

+¿
𝟏𝟐 𝟔 𝟔 𝟔
P(R, B) ¿
𝟐𝟎 𝟐𝟓
Red 𝟐𝟓 𝟐𝟓
𝟖
𝟐𝟎 𝟏𝟐
𝟖 ¿
𝟒 𝟐𝟓
𝟐𝟎 P(R, R) ¿
𝟐𝟓
Monday 23 October 2023

Probability Tree Diagrams

In a bag there are 12 blue and 8 red sweets. Draw a Tree Diagram to show all possible outcomes
when 2 sweets are drawn out and are replaced.

𝟏𝟐 𝟗
P(B, B) ¿
𝟐𝟎 𝟐𝟓 What is the probability of picking
𝟏𝟐 two sweets that are different
colours?
𝟐𝟎
Blue 𝟖 𝟔
𝟐𝟎 P(B, R) ¿ 𝟐𝟓
1 – P(same colour)

𝟏𝟐 𝟔
P(R, B) ¿
𝟐𝟓 𝟏𝟑
Red 𝟐𝟎 𝟏−
𝟖 𝟐𝟓
𝟐𝟎
𝟖 𝟏𝟐
𝟒 ¿
𝟐𝟎 P(R, R) ¿
𝟐𝟓
𝟐𝟓
Monday 23 October 2023

Probability Tree Diagrams

A wallet contains 2 gold coins and 8 silver coins. A coin is picked at random and then replaced. A second coin
is picked. Draw a probability tree diagrams and calculate the probability of picking two silver coins.

𝟐
𝟐 𝟏𝟎
𝟏𝟎
Gold 𝟖
𝟏𝟎
𝟐
Silver 𝟏𝟎
𝟖
𝟏𝟎 𝟖 𝟖 𝟖 𝟔𝟒 𝟏𝟔
𝟏𝟎 P(S, S) × ¿ ¿
𝟏𝟎 𝟏𝟎𝟏𝟎𝟎 𝟐𝟓
Tree Diagrams
Question: Given there’s 5 red balls and 2 blue balls. What’s the
probability that after two picks we have a red ball and a blue ball?
Tip: Note that probabilities The probability of the second After first pick, there’s less
generally go on the lines, and event is conditional on the balls to choose from, so
first event. This is called probabilities change.
events at the end.
conditional probability. 4
?
6 R
5?
7 R
2? B
6
5 R
?
6
2
?
7
B
1
? B
6
Tree Diagrams

Question: Given there’s 5 red balls and 2 blue balls. What’s the
probability that after two picks we have a red ball and a blue ball?
We multiply across the matching
4
branches, then add these values.
6 R
5
7 R 5
2 B ?
21
6
5 R 5
?
6 21
2
7
B
10
1 B
P(red and blue) = ?
21
6
Example
This tree diagram shows all possible combinations of boys and girls
in a family of three children. This assumes that the outcomes, boy
or girl, are equally likely.
1
1
?2 B
?
2 B 1
G
?2
1 ?1 B
?
2 B 2
1 G 1
G
?2 2?
?2 B
1
1
?2 B 1
?2 G
1
?2 G ?12 B
1
?2 G 1
?2 G
Example
1) A family with three children is chosen at random. Find the Possible
probability that at least one child is a girl. Combinations
BBB
? 1
1
2
B
2 B 1
G BBG
2

1 B BGB
B
2 1 G 1
2 G BGG
2
1
2
B GBB
1
B 1
2 2 G GBG
1
2
G 1
2 B GGB
1 G 1
2 2 G GGG
Example
2) A family with three children is chosen at random. Find the Possible
probability that two of the children are girls. Combinations
BBB
? 1
1
2
B
2 B 1
G BBG
2

1 B BGB
B
2 1 G 1
G BGG
2 2
1
2
B GBB
1
B 1
2 2 G GBG
1
2
G 1
2 B GGB
1 G 1
2 2 G GGG
Example
3) Find the probability that the oldest and youngest children are
Possible
the same gender. Combinations
BBB
?
1
1
2
B
2 B 1
G BBG
2

1 B BGB
B
2 1 G 1
2 G BGG
2
1
2
B GBB
1
B 1
2 2 G GBG
1
2
G 1
2 B GGB
1 G 1
2 2 G GGG
Example

3
?8

3
8?
?
5
8
5 5 25
?
× =
3
8
? 8 8 64
5
8?

( )(
3 5 5 3
× ?+ ×
8 8 8 8
Question

1 1 1
× =?
5 5 25

( 1 4
×
5 5
8
) (
4 1
)
+ ?× =
5 5
17
8
25
1−
25
= ?
25
Question

0.9
0.9
? 0.1
?
0.1 0.9
?
0.1
2
?
0.9 =0.81

2 ×0.1 ×?0.9=0.18
Question

4
5 13
?
14
9
13
?
5
9
?
14
13
8
13
9 8 36
× ? =
two consonants? 14 13 91

( 5
×
14 13)(
9 9
+ ? ×
5
14 13)=
45
91
 Example
George travels to school by bike with probability 0.7 or by bus. If he travels by bike, the
probability he is late to school is 0.1. If he travels by bus, the probability he is late is
0.15. Complete the following probability tree.

𝐿𝑎𝑡𝑒
𝟎.?𝟏 If we had travelled
by bike, we’re told
the probability of
being late is 0.1.
𝐵𝑖𝑘𝑒
0.7
𝟎.?𝟗 𝑁𝑜𝑡𝐿𝑎𝑡𝑒
𝐿𝑎𝑡𝑒
?
𝟎.𝟏𝟓 If we
𝟎.?𝟑 𝐵𝑢𝑠
travelled by
bike, we
could have
Recall that the probability of
all possible outcomes
𝟎.𝟖𝟓
? 𝑁𝑜𝑡𝐿𝑎𝑡𝑒
been late or
not late, so
(provided they are mutually these
exclusive, i.e. can’t happen at probabilities
the same time), add up to 1. add to 1.
Test Your Understanding So Far
Laura has two shots at an archery target. The probability she hits the target on the first
shot is 0.6. If she does hit it, she gains confidence and has a 0.7 probability of hitting the
target. If she misses on the first shot, she has a 0.4 chance of hitting the target on the
second shot. Complete the diagram.

𝐻𝑖𝑡
?
0.7

𝐻𝑖𝑡
?
0.6
?
0.3 𝑀𝑖𝑠𝑠
𝐻𝑖𝑡
?
0.4
?
0.4 𝑀𝑖𝑠𝑠
?
0.6 𝑀𝑖𝑠𝑠
Probability of a single sequence of events
Laura has two shots at an archery target. The probability she hits the target on the first
shot is 0.6. If she does hit it, she gains confidence and has a 0.7 probability of hitting the
target. If she misses on the first shot, she has a 0.4 chance of hitting the target on the
second shot.
Determine the probability she hits the target on the first shot but misses on the
second.
𝐻𝑖𝑡
0.7

𝐻𝑖𝑡
0.6
0.3 𝑀𝑖𝑠𝑠
𝐻𝑖𝑡
0.4
0.4 𝑀𝑖𝑠𝑠
Follow this sequence of outcomes (“Hit
Miss”) across the tree from left to right.
0.6 𝑀𝑖𝑠𝑠
?
Because we want the probability of hit
first and miss second, we multiply these ! If two events and are independent,
two probabilities. then:
Test Your Understanding
Laura has two shots at an archery target. The probability she hits the target on the first
shot is 0.6. If she does hit it, she gains confidence and has a 0.7 probability of hitting the
target. If she misses on the first shot, she has a 0.4 chance of hitting the target on the
second shot.
Determine the probability she misses on both shots.
𝐻𝑖𝑡
0.7

𝐻𝑖𝑡
0.6
0.3 𝑀𝑖𝑠𝑠
𝐻𝑖𝑡
0.4
0.4 𝑀𝑖𝑠𝑠
0.6 𝑀𝑖𝑠𝑠
0.4 ×0.6=
? 0.24
Multiple Sequences of Events
Laura has two shots at an archery target. The probability she hits the target on the first
shot is 0.6. If she does hit it, she gains confidence and has a 0.7 probability of hitting the
target. If she misses on the first shot, she has a 0.4 chance of hitting the target on the
second shot.
Determine the probability she hits the target exactly once.

Step 1: List out all

𝐻𝑖𝑡
matching sequences
0.7
of outcomes.
𝐻𝑖𝑡
0.6
0.3 𝑀𝑖𝑠𝑠
Step 2: Find the
probability of each 𝐻𝑖𝑡
sequence of outcomes. 0.4
0.4 𝑀𝑖𝑠𝑠
HM: 0.6 × 0.3=0.18
? 0.6 𝑀𝑖𝑠𝑠
?
MH: 0. 4 ×0. 4=0.1 6 Step 3: Add these
probabilities together.
?4
0.3 (This is because we want “Hit then Miss
OR Miss then Hit”. ‘OR’ means we add)
Sampling with Replacement
Rathulan has a bag of 5 red marbles and 2 yellow marbles. He takes one marble, notes
the colours, puts it back in the bag, and then take a second marble.
(a) Complete the following probability tree.
(b) Hence determine the probability that both marbles chosen are red.
2nd pick
1st pick The implication of
5
? 𝑅 ‘puts it back’ is
7 that the bag will
be the same for
the second pick,
5
? 𝑅 meaning the
probabilities don’t
7 2? 𝑌 change. We call
7 this sampling with
replacement.
5 𝑅
7?
2
?
7
𝑌
2
?
7
𝑌
5 5 25
𝑃 ( 𝑅𝑅 )=? b× =
7 7 49
Algebraic Probability Questions

This question famously made

national news…

b) Solve to find the

Probability both orange:
value of .

( 𝑛+9 ) (𝑛−? 10 )=0

?
‘Cross multiply’
Question (Algebraic Trees)

𝑝
4
𝑝
4

𝑝 𝑝 1
× ?=
4 4 16
Test Your Understanding So Far
George travels to school by bike with probability 0.7 or by bus. If he travels by bike, the
probability he is late to school is 0.1. If he travels by bus, the probability he is late is
0.15. Determine the probability that George is late to school.

Step 1: List out Tip: If it helps to draw a probability tree, then do so.
all matching
sequences of But if you are not required to do so, it is quicker to avoid it.
outcomes.

Step 2: Find the

probability of
each sequence
of outcomes. Bike - Late:
Bus - Late: ?
Step 3: Add
these
probabilities
together.
Further Example
A monkey makes a choice of banana each day. It is yellow with probability 0.6, green with
probability 0.3 and purple with probability 0.1.
Determine the probability that the bananas he chooses across two days are different.

Slow way: Cleverer faster way:

YG: 0.6 × 0.3=0.18 Step 1: List out

Y notY: 0.6 × 0.4=0.24
all matching
YP: 0.6 × 0.1=0.06 sequences of G notG: 0.3 × 0.7=0.21
GY: 0.3 × 0.6=0.18 outcomes.
P notP: 0.1 × 0.9=0.09
GP: 0.3 × 0.1=0.03
Step 2: Find the
PY: 0.1 × 0.6=0.06 probability of 0.54
PG: 0.1 × 0.3=0.03 each sequence
of outcomes. If the two bananas are different, then if
0.54 the first banana is yellow, then the
second banana has to ‘not be yellow’.
Step 3: Add We can find the probability of ‘not
these yellow’ directly without having to
probabilities separately do green and purple, as we
together. did on the left.
Mutually Exclusive Events and Addition Law

• If two events are mutually exclusive they can’t happen ?at the same time.
• If and are mutually exclusive then:
• ?
?
• The Venn Diagram would look like:
𝑆
𝐴 𝐵 Since , there can’t be any
outcomes in the overlap,
? so we don’t have an
overlap!
 The ‘AND’ Rule
• The Probability of events A AND B happening:
P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B)
Add or multiply probabilities?

Getting a 6 on a die and a T on a coin. 

+ ×


Hitting a bullseye or a triple 20. +

 
×
Getting a HHT or a THT after three
throws of an unfair coin (presuming we’ve +
 
×
already worked out P(HHT) and P(THT).

Getting 3 on the first throw of a die

and a 4 on the second. 
+ ×


Bart’s favourite colour being red and 

+ ×

Pablo’s being blue.

Shaan’s favourite colour being red or blue. +

 
×