Unit 2 Civ254 120924

UNIT 2 CIV254
Simulation Modeling
•Objectives and utility of Simulation,
•Modeling principles and techniques,
•Types of simulations,
•Data collection and analysis for simulation,
•Probability and statistics for simulation
Objectives and Utilities of Simulation
• Simulation is a powerful tool used across various fields for analyzing,
predicting, and optimizing systems and processes.
• The objectives and utilities of simulation can vary depending on the
context, but some common objectives and utilities includes the
following
• Objectives of Simulation
• System Understanding and Analysis
• Objective:
• To gain insights into the behavior and dynamics of complex
systems.
• Utility: Helps in understanding how different components of a
system interact and affect the overall performance.
• Decision Support:
• Objective:
• To aid in making informed decisions by evaluating the outcomes of
different scenarios.
• Utility:
• Supports decision-makers in choosing optimal strategies by
simulating various scenarios and assessing their impacts.
• Optimization:
• Objective:
• To find the best configuration or strategy to achieve desired
outcomes.
• Utility: Enables optimization of resources, processes, and systems
by testing different configurations and identifying the most
efficient solutions.
• Risk Assessment and Management:
• Objective:
• To identify, analyze, and mitigate risks associated with different
scenarios.
• Utility:
• Assists in understanding potential risks and their impacts, allowing
for better preparation and risk management.
• Training and Education:
• Objective:
• To provide a safe and controlled environment for learning and
practicing skills.
• Utility: Offers a practical and risk-free way to train individuals in
handling complex systems or situations, such as flight simulators
for pilots.
• Cost-Benefit Analysis:
• Objective:
• To evaluate the financial implications of different scenarios or
strategies.
• Utility:
• Helps in understanding the cost-effectiveness of different options,
aiding in budget planning and resource allocation.
• Prototyping and Testing:
• Objective:
• To test new designs, processes, or systems before implementation.
• Utility: Allows for the evaluation of prototypes and processes in a virtual
environment, reducing the need for physical testing and saving time and
resources
• Performance Evaluation:
• Objective:
• To assess the performance of a system under various conditions.
• Utility:
• Enables the evaluation of system performance metrics, such as
efficiency, reliability, and scalability, under different scenarios
Utilities of Simulation
• Flexibility:
• Simulations can be tailored to replicate specific systems or
scenarios, making them versatile tools for various applications.
• Cost-Effectiveness:
• Simulating processes can be less expensive than real-world
testing, especially in scenarios where physical trials would be
costly or risky.
• Time Efficiency:
• Simulations can compress or extend time, allowing for the study of
long-term effects or rapid testing of multiple scenarios.
Utilities of Simulation
• Risk-Free Environment:
• Simulations provide a safe space to test hypotheses, strategies, or
responses without the risks associated with real-world
experimentation.
• Data Generation:
• Simulations can generate large amounts of data for analysis, which
can be used for further research, model refinement, or decision-
making.
• Predictive Power:
• Simulations allow for the prediction of future states or outcomes
based on current data and trends, aiding in strategic planning.
Utilities of Simulation(21/08/24)
• Visualization:
• Complex systems and processes can be visualized through
simulation, making it easier to communicate findings and insights
to stakeholders.
• Simulation is widely used in fields like engineering, economics,
healthcare, logistics, and environmental science due to these
objectives and utilities.
Utilities of Simulation in healthcare
• Patient Flow Management:
• Utility: Simulations help hospitals optimize patient flow, reducing wait
times and improving the allocation of resources such as staff, beds,
and equipment.
• Example: Simulating emergency department operations to find
bottlenecks and improve throughput.
• Training and Skill Development: https://www.youtube.com/watch?
v=cZNa0vmdgSI
• Utility: Medical professionals use simulations for training purposes,
allowing them to practice procedures and respond to emergencies in a
controlled environment without risking patient safety.
• Example: Surgical simulators that provide hands-on practice without the
need for actual patients
• Treatment and Intervention Planning:
• Utility: Simulations enable healthcare providers to model the
effects of various treatment plans on patient outcomes, aiding in
personalized medicine.
• Example: Cancer treatment planning using simulations to predict
the outcomes of different radiation or chemotherapy regimens.
• Disease Spread Modeling:
• Utility: Simulations help in understanding and predicting the
spread of infectious diseases, allowing for better planning of
interventions and resource allocation.
• Example: Modeling the spread of pandemics to determine the
most effective public health measures.
• Health System Capacity Planning:
• Utility: Helps in forecasting future healthcare demands and
planning for capacity expansion, including the need for new
facilities, staff, and equipment.
• Example: Simulating the impact of an aging population on
healthcare services.
Utilities of Simulation in logistics
• Supply Chain Optimization: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33q-
37Gox38
• Utility: Simulations are used to optimize supply chain operations by
modeling the flow of goods, inventory levels, and transportation
routes, leading to cost savings and improved efficiency.
• Example: Modeling the entire supply chain to identify the most cost-
effective routes and inventory policies.
• Warehouse and Distribution Center Management:
• Utility: Simulation tools help in designing warehouse layouts and
optimizing operations, such as picking, packing, and shipping
processes.
• Example: Simulating different warehouse configurations to maximize
space utilization and minimize handling times
Utilities of Simulation in logistics
• Transportation and Fleet Management:
• Utility: Simulations allow logistics companies to optimize fleet
operations, including route planning, fuel consumption, and
maintenance schedules.
• Example: Using simulation to optimize delivery routes for a fleet
of trucks, reducing fuel costs and delivery times.
• Risk and Contingency Planning:
• Utility: Logistics simulations help identify potential risks, such as
supply chain disruptions, and plan for contingencies to ensure
continuity of operations.
• Example: Simulating the impact of a natural disaster on a supply
chain to develop robust contingency plans
Utilities of Simulation in logistics(23/08/24)
• Customer Service and Satisfaction:
• Utility: Simulating customer demand and service processes helps
logistics companies better meet customer expectations by
ensuring timely and accurate deliveries.
• Example: Modeling the effects of different delivery options on
customer satisfaction
Utilities of Simulation in economics
• Economic Forecasting:
• Utility: Simulations are used to forecast economic indicators such as
GDP growth, inflation rates, and unemployment, helping
policymakers and businesses make informed decisions.
• Example: Using econometric models to simulate the impact of fiscal
policies on national economic growth.
• Policy Impact Analysis:
• Utility: Economic simulations allow for the analysis of how different
policies, such as tax changes or trade tariffs, will impact the
economy.
• Example: Simulating the effects of a new trade agreement on
various sectors of the economy.
• Market Behavior Modeling:
• Utility: Simulations help in understanding the behavior of markets
under different conditions, such as changes in consumer behavior,
interest rates, or market regulations.
• Example: Simulating stock market responses to interest rate
changes by central banks.
• Resource Allocation:
• Utility: Simulations enable economists to model the allocation of
resources across different sectors of the economy to optimize
productivity and growth.
• Example: Using simulation to determine the optimal allocation of
government spending across education, healthcare, and
infrastructure
• Risk Management:
• Utility: Simulations help in assessing and managing economic risks,
such as those related to financial markets, inflation, or global trade
disruptions.
• Example: Simulating the potential impacts of a financial crisis on
global markets to develop mitigation strategies.
• Behavioral Economics:
• Utility: Simulations allow for the modeling of how individuals and
firms might behave under different economic conditions, leading
to better understanding and prediction of economic outcomes.
• Example: Simulating consumer response to changes in pricing or
marketing strategies
Modelling principles and techniques of simulations
• INTRODUCTION
• Modeling principles and techniques are fundamental to the effective
use of simulations.
• These principles guide the design, development, and implementation
of simulation models, ensuring that they are accurate, reliable, and
useful.
• Some key modeling principles and techniques used in simulations are
• Modeling Principles in Simulations
• Abstraction:
• Principle: Simplify complex systems by focusing on the most
critical components and interactions.
• Application:
• Identify and include only the most relevant variables and processes in
the model to reduce complexity while retaining essential system
behavior.
• Validation and Verification:
• Principle: Ensure that the model accurately represents the real-
world system (validation) and that it is implemented correctly
(verification).
• Application: Compare model outputs with real-world data or
known outcomes to verify its accuracy, and ensure the simulation
code performs as intended.
• Reusability:
• Principle: Design models that can be reused or adapted for
different but related problems.
• Application: Develop modular models with components that can
be adjusted or combined for use in different scenarios
• Scalability:
• Principle: Ensure that the model can handle varying levels of detail
and complexity.
• Application: Design models that can scale up or down, depending
on the level of detail required or the size of the system being
simulated.
• Transparency and Documentation:
• Principle: Make the model's structure, assumptions, and parameters
clear and well-documented.
• Application: Provide detailed documentation explaining the model’s
logic, assumptions, and any data sources, allowing others to
understand and validate the model.
• Sensitivity Analysis:
• Principle: Test how changes in input variables affect the model's
outputs.
• Application: Identify which variables have the most significant impact on
the results and ensure the model is robust against uncertainties in input
data
Modelling techniques of simulations
• 1. Discrete Event Simulation (DES):
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K61Wkx1hyqw
• Technique: Models the operation of a system as a sequence of
discrete events in time.
• Application: Used in queuing systems, manufacturing processes,
and healthcare to model events such as arrivals, departures, and
system state changes.
• 2. Agent-Based Modeling (ABM):
• Technique: Simulates the actions and interactions of autonomous
agents to assess their effects on the system as a whole.
• Application: Used in social sciences, economics, and epidemiology to
model the behavior of individuals or entities and their interactions
Modelling techniques of simulations(30/8/24)
• 3. System Dynamics (SD):
• Technique: Uses differential equations to model the continuous
change in system variables over time.
• Application: Applied in fields such as environmental science,
economics, and organizational behavior to model feedback loops
and time-dependent processes.
• 4. Monte Carlo Simulation:
• Technique: Uses random sampling and statistical methods to
estimate the behavior of a system under uncertainty.
• Application: Commonly used in finance, risk assessment, and
project management to model the probability of different outcomes
under uncertain conditions.
• 5. Hybrid Simulation:
• Technique: Combines multiple simulation techniques (e.g., DES,
ABM, SD) to model complex systems with both discrete and
continuous components.
• Application: Used in healthcare, logistics, and manufacturing to
model systems that have both individual agent behaviors and
overarching systemic dynamics.
• 6. Stochastic Modeling:
• Technique: Incorporates randomness and uncertainty into the
model’s parameters and processes.
• Application: Used in fields such as finance, insurance, and
epidemiology to model systems influenced by random factors
• 7.Deterministic Modeling:
• Technique: Models a system with fixed, predictable inputs and
outputs, with no randomness involved.
• Application: Used in engineering, physical sciences, and
operations research where system behavior is predictable and
repeatable.
• 8. Queuing Theory:
• Technique: Models systems where entities wait in line for service,
focusing on metrics like wait time, queue length, and system
utilization.
• Application: Commonly used in telecommunications, manufacturing,
and customer service to optimize resource allocation and reduce
bottlenecks
• 9.Continuous Simulation:
• Technique: Models systems where changes occur continuously
over time, often using differential equations.
• Application: Applied in fields like fluid dynamics, thermodynamics,
and environmental modeling to simulate processes like heat
transfer or ecosystem changes.
• 10. What-If Analysis:
• Technique: Explores the impact of different scenarios or decisions
on the system’s behavior.
• Application: Used in strategic planning, policy analysis, and
business modeling to evaluate potential outcomes under various
conditions.
• Conclusion
• These principles and techniques provide a structured approach to
simulation modeling, ensuring that models are built systematically.
• They are capable of providing valuable insights into complex systems.
• By applying the appropriate principles and techniques, simulations
can be tailored to accurately reflect real-world scenarios, making
them powerful tools for analysis and decision-making.
Types of simulations
• Simulations can be classified into various types based on their
methodology, application, and the nature of the systems they
represent. Main types of simulations are as follows
• 1. Discrete Event Simulation (DES)
• Definition:
• Models systems where changes occur at discrete points in time, often
triggered by specific events.
• Application:
• Commonly used in manufacturing processes, queuing systems,
healthcare, and logistics.
• Example: Simulating patient flow in a hospital to optimize staffing and
reduce wait times.
• 2. Continuous Simulation
• Definition:
• Models systems where changes occur continuously over time, often
represented by differential equations.
• Application:
• Used in engineering, physics, environmental science, and biology to model
processes like fluid dynamics, population growth, or ecosystem changes.
• Example:
• Simulating the spread of pollutants in a river over time.
• 3. Agent-Based Simulation (ABM)

• Definition:
• Models the behavior and interactions of autonomous agents, each
with individual rules and characteristics, to understand their
collective impact on the system.
• Application:
• Applied in social sciences, economics, epidemiology, and urban
planning.
• Example:
• Simulating the spread of infectious diseases in a population based on
individual behaviors and interactions.
• 4. Monte Carlo Simulation
• Definition:
• Uses random sampling and statistical methods to estimate the behavior
of a system under uncertainty, often involving repeated random
sampling to compute results.
• Application:
• Widely used in finance, risk assessment, project management, and
decision analysis.
• Example:
• Estimating the probability of project completion within a given time
frame by simulating different scenarios of delays and resource
availability.
.
• 5. System Dynamics (SD)
• Definition:
• Models complex systems using feedback loops and time delays, often
using differential equations to represent the relationships between
different system components.
• Application:
• Used in environmental modeling, economics, public policy, and
organizational behavior.
• Example:
• Modeling the long-term impact of renewable energy adoption on
carbon emissions
Types of simulations(4/09/24)
• 6. Stochastic Simulation
• Definition:
• Incorporates randomness and uncertainty into the model, with
outcomes represented by probability distributions.
• Application:
• Used in fields like finance, insurance, supply chain management, and
epidemiology.
• Example:
• Simulating stock price movements to assess the risk and return of
different investment strategies.
• 7. Deterministic Simulation
• Definition:
• Models systems with fixed, predictable inputs and outcomes, with no
randomness involved.
• Application:
• Common in engineering, operations research, and physical sciences
where system behavior is predictable.
• Example:
• Simulating the trajectory of a spacecraft with known initial conditions
and forces acting on it.
• 8. Hybrid Simulation
• Definition:
• Combines elements of different types of simulations (e.g., DES, ABM,
SD) to model complex systems that have both discrete and
continuous aspects.
• Application:
• Applied in healthcare, logistics, manufacturing, and systems
engineering.
• Example:
• Simulating a healthcare system where patient flow (discrete events)
and the spread of infection (continuous process) are both modeled.
• 9. Virtual Reality (VR) and Augmented Reality (AR) Simulations
• Definition:
• Use immersive technologies to create interactive simulations that
mimic real-world environments or overlay digital information onto
the real world.
• Application:
• Used in training, education, entertainment, and design.
• Example:
• VR training simulations for surgeons to practice complex procedures
in a controlled environment.
• 10. Analytical Simulation
• Definition:
• Uses mathematical models to simulate system behavior, often
providing closed-form solutions or simplified models.
• Application:
• Used in fields like economics, engineering, and operations research
where simpler models are sufficient to gain insights.
• Example:
• Simulating the optimal production level for a factory using linear
programming techniques
• 11. Real-Time Simulation

• Definition:
• Simulates systems in real-time, where the simulation clock runs at the
same rate as the real-world time.
• Application:
• Commonly used in training simulators (e.g., flight simulators), video
games, and control systems.
• Example:
• A flight simulator where pilots train with real-time responses to
controls and environmental factors.
• 12. Game-Theoretic Simulation

• Definition:
• Models strategic interactions between rational decision-makers
(agents) in competitive or cooperative scenarios.
• Application:
• Used in economics, political science, and military strategy to simulate
scenarios where multiple parties with different objectives interact.
• Example:
• Simulating negotiations between countries to predict the outcomes
of trade agreements or conflicts.
• 13. What-If Simulation

• Definition:
• Explores the potential outcomes of different scenarios by changing
variables or assumptions to see how they affect the system.
• Application:
• Used in strategic planning, policy analysis, and business decision-
making.
• Example:
• Simulating the impact of a new pricing strategy on sales and market
share.
• 14. Simulation-Based Optimization (SBO)
• Definition: Combines simulation with optimization techniques to find
the best solution for a given problem.
• Application: Used in logistics, manufacturing, finance, and
engineering to optimize systems or processes under uncertainty.
• Example: Optimizing the layout of a warehouse to minimize travel
time and maximize efficiency using a combination of simulation and
genetic algorithms.
• Each type of simulation serves specific purposes and is chosen based
on the nature of the system being modeled, the desired outcomes,
and the level of detail required
Data Collection and Analysis for Simulations(5/09/24)
• INTRODUCTION- Data collection and analysis are critical steps in the
simulation process, as they ensure that the model is based on
accurate, relevant, and sufficient data. This helps in creating a
realistic and reliable simulation that can be used for decision-
making, forecasting, or optimization.
• Below is an overview of the process of data collection and analysis for
simulation:
• Data Collection for Simulation
• 1. Define Objectives and Requirements:
• Purpose: Understand the specific goals of the simulation and what
questions it aims to answer.
• Outcome: Clearly defined data needs, such as which variables to
collect, their level of detail, and the required accuracy
Data Collection and Analysis for Simulations
• 2. Identify Data Sources:
• Purpose: Determine where and how the necessary data can be
obtained.
• Types of Sources:
• Primary Data:
• Directly collected for the simulation through experiments,
surveys, observations, or real-time monitoring.
• Secondary Data:
• Existing data obtained from databases, reports, historical records,
industry benchmarks, or published research
• 3. Data Collection Methods:
• Surveys and Questionnaires: Used to gather information from
individuals or organizations.
• Observations: Direct observation of processes or systems to
collect data on behavior, time intervals, or interactions.
• Sensors and IoT Devices: Real-time data collection from machines,
environments, or individuals.
• Experiments: Controlled experiments to collect data under
specific conditions.
• Historical Data Analysis: Extracting relevant data from past
records to understand trends and patterns.
• 4. Data Quality Assessment:
• Purpose: Ensure the collected data is accurate, reliable, and
relevant.
• Checks: Validate data for completeness, consistency, accuracy,
and timeliness. Identify and correct any errors, outliers, or missing
values.
• 5. Data Preparation and Cleaning:
• Purpose: Prepare the raw data for use in the simulation model.
• Steps:
• Data Cleaning: Remove or correct inaccuracies, inconsistencies,
and irrelevant data.
• Data Transformation: Convert data into the required format or
structure for the simulation.
• Data Aggregation: Summarize or combine data points as
needed to reduce complexity.
• Data Normalization: Adjust data to a common scale without
distorting differences in values.
• Data Analysis for Simulation
• 1. Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA):
• Purpose:
• Gain insights into the data, identify patterns, and understand the
relationships between variables.
• Techniques:
• Descriptive Statistics: Mean, median, mode, standard deviation, and
range to summarize data.
• Visualization: Graphs, charts, and plots (e.g., histograms, scatter
plots, box plots) to visualize data distribution and trends.
• Correlation Analysis: Assess relationships between variables to
identify potential dependencies or influences.
• 2. Statistical Analysis:
• Purpose: Use statistical methods to analyze data and make
inferences about the population or system being studied.
• Techniques:
• Hypothesis Testing: Determine if there is a significant effect or
relationship in the data.
• Regression Analysis: Model relationships between dependent
and independent variables.
• Time Series Analysis: Analyze data collected over time to identify
trends, seasonal patterns, and cycles
• 3. Sensitivity Analysis:
• Purpose: Determine how changes in input variables affect the outputs of the
simulation model.
• Techniques:
• Scenario Analysis: Test different scenarios by varying key inputs and
observing the outcomes.
• What-If Analysis: Explore the effects of different assumptions or decisions
on the model's results.
• 4. Model Calibration:
• Purpose: Adjust the model’s parameters to match the real-world
system more closely.
• Steps: Use the collected data to fine-tune the model until it
accurately reflects observed behavior or outcomes.
• 5. Validation and Verification:
• Purpose:
• Ensure the model’s accuracy and reliability by comparing its
outputs with real-world data or known outcomes.
• Techniques:
• Cross-Validation: Use separate data sets for model training and
testing to assess its performance.
• Comparison with Benchmarks: Compare model outputs with
industry benchmarks or historical data.
• 6. Data Integration:
• Purpose: Combine data from multiple sources or systems to
create a comprehensive dataset for the simulation.
• Techniques:
• Data Fusion: Integrate data from different sensors or sources
to provide a unified view.
• Database Merging: Combine datasets from different databases
or spreadsheets.
• 7.Output Analysis:
• Purpose: Analyze the simulation outputs to draw conclusions,
make predictions, or support decision-making.
• Techniques:
• Performance Metrics: Evaluate key performance indicators
(KPIs) to assess the system’s efficiency, effectiveness, or
stability.
• Scenario Comparison: Compare results across different
scenarios to determine the best course of action.
• Tools and Software for Data Collection and Analysis
• Data Collection Tools: Surveys (e.g., SurveyMonkey), IoT sensors,
databases, Excel, and SQL for querying data.
• Data Analysis Tools: Statistical software (e.g., SPSS, R, SAS), data
visualization tools (e.g., Tableau, Power BI), and machine learning
platforms (e.g., Python, MATLAB).
Probability and Statistics for Simulations
• Probability and statistics are essential tools in simulation, as they
provide the mathematical framework for modeling uncertainty,
analyzing data, and drawing conclusions from simulated scenarios.
Here's an overview of how probability and statistics are used in
simulations:
• Probability in Simulation
• 1. Random Variables and Probability Distributions:
• Random Variables: Variables that can take on different values
based on chance. They are used to model uncertainty in
simulations.
• Probability Distributions: Describe how the probabilities are
distributed over the values of the random variable.
Common Distributions:
• Uniform Distribution: All outcomes are equally likely. Often
used for random number generation.
• Normal Distribution: Bell-shaped curve, commonly used to
model natural phenomena (e.g., heights, errors).
• Exponential Distribution: Used for modeling time between
events in a Poisson process (e.g., time between arrivals in a
queue).
• Binomial Distribution: Models the number of successes in a
fixed number of independent trials.
• Poisson Distribution: Models the number of events in a
fixed interval of time or space.
• 2. Monte Carlo Simulation:
• Definition: A technique that uses random sampling to estimate the
behavior of a system under uncertainty.
• Application: Used in finance, risk analysis, engineering, and project
management to model complex systems with uncertain inputs.
• Process:
• Define a range for the uncertain variables.
• Generate random samples based on the probability distributions.
• Run simulations using these samples.
• Analyze the distribution of the results to make probabilistic predictions
• 3. Stochastic Processes:
• Definition: Processes that are inherently random and evolve over
time, often used to model systems with uncertainty.
• Examples:
• Markov Chains: Models where the next state depends only on
the current state (memoryless property).
• Poisson Process: Models events that occur randomly over time,
often used in queuing theory.
• Application: Used in various fields including finance (e.g., stock
price modeling), biology (e.g., population dynamics), and
operations research.
• 4. Random Number Generation:
• Purpose:
• Used to simulate the randomness in systems.
• Techniques:
• Pseudo-random number generators (PRNGs) are commonly used
in simulations to generate sequences of numbers that
approximate the properties of random numbers.
• Statistics in Simulation
• 1. Descriptive Statistics:
• Purpose: Summarize and describe the main features of a data set,
providing a simple overview of the distribution of data.
• Measures:
• Mean: The average of the data set.
• Median: The middle value of the data set
• Mode: The most frequent value in the data set.
• Standard Deviation: Measures the dispersion of the data
around the mean.
• Variance: The square of the standard deviation
• Inferential Statistics:
• Purpose: Make predictions or inferences about a population based
on a sample of data.
• Techniques:
• Confidence Intervals: Estimate the range within which a
population parameter lies with a certain level of confidence.
• Hypothesis Testing: Assess the evidence against a null
hypothesis to determine if there is a significant effect or
relationship.
• Regression Analysis: Analyze the relationship between
dependent and independent variables, often used to make
predictions.
• Hypothesis Testing:
• Purpose: Evaluate the evidence from a sample to make decisions
about a population parameter.
• Steps:
• Formulate a null hypothesis (H₀) and an alternative hypothesis
(H₁).
• Choose a significance level (e.g., α = 0.05).
• Calculate the test statistic using the sample data.
• Determine the p-value and compare it to the significance level.
• Draw a conclusion: Reject H₀ if the p-value is less than α.
• Application: Used to test assumptions
• Estimation:
• Purpose: Estimate population parameters (e.g., mean, variance) from
sample data.
• Types:
• Point Estimation: Provides a single value estimate of the parameter
(e.g., sample mean).
• Interval Estimation: Provides a range of values within which the
parameter is expected to lie, usually with a confidence level (e.g.,
95% confidence interval).
• Analysis of Variance (ANOVA):
• Purpose: Compare the means of three or more groups to determine if at least one
group mean is different.
• Application: Used in simulations to compare different scenarios or
treatments to see if they have significantly different outcomes
• Sensitivity Analysis:
• Purpose: Assess how the output of a simulation model responds
to changes in input parameters.
• Techniques:
• One-At-A-Time (OAT): Vary one input at a time while keeping
others constant to see its effect on the output.
• Global Sensitivity Analysis: Consider the effect of varying all inputs
simultaneously, often using statistical techniques like variance-based
methods
• Applying Probability and Statistics in Simulation
• Model Validation and Verification: Use statistical methods to
validate and verify simulation models by comparing simulated results
with real-world data.
• Uncertainty Quantification: Apply probability distributions to model
uncertainties and quantify their impact on simulation outcomes.
• Decision-Making: Use statistical analysis to interpret simulation
results, helping stakeholders make informed decisions based on
probabilistic outcomes.
• Optimization: Combine simulation with optimization techniques to
find the best possible solutions under uncertainty
• Tools and Software
• Statistical Software: R, Python (with libraries like NumPy, SciPy,
Pandas), SAS, SPSS.
• Simulation Software: MATLAB, Simul8, Arena, AnyLogic, Monte Carlo
tools.
• Conclusion
• Understanding and applying probability and statistics in simulations is
crucial for accurately modeling uncertainties, analyzing data, and
making informed decisions. These tools enable the simulation of
complex systems and provide insights that can guide strategy, policy,
and operational improvements.

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UNIT 2 CIV254

• 3. Agent-Based Simulation (ABM)

• 11. Real-Time Simulation

• 12. Game-Theoretic Simulation

• 13. What-If Simulation

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