BNetwork Presentation

Rajiv Gandhi University , Arunachal
Pradesh
Bayesian Networks : A Tutorial
Presented By:
• Anuja Sharma(20MCA301)
• Pinku Borah(20MCA304)
• Tasso Tatho(20MCA312)
• Arup Basumatary(21MCA205)
• Kago Moda(21MCA210)
1
INTRODUCTION
Definition:
We can define a Bayesian network as : “A
Bayesian network is a probabilistic graphical
model which represents a set of variables and
their conditional dependencies using a directed
a cyclic graph.”
• It is also called a Bayes Network,belief
network,decision network or Bayesian
model.
2
INTRODUCTION
Real world applications are probabilistic in nature,

and to represent the relationship between multiple
events, we need a Bayesian network. It can also
be used in various tasks including prediction,
anomaly detection, diagnostics, automated
insight, reasoning, time series prediction,
and decision making under uncertainty.
3
INTRODUCTION
The generalized form of Bayesian network that

represents and solve decision problems under
uncertain knowledge is known as an Influence
diagram.
4
INTRODUCTION
A Bayesian network graph is made up of nodes and Arcs (directed

links), where:
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INTRODUCTION
The Bayesian network has mainly two

components:
◦ Causal Component
◦ Actual numbers
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The Joint Probability Distribution: The combination probabilities of
a different variables.
Probability Primer Random Variables: Refers to an event and there is some

degree of uncertainty as to the outcome of the event.
Boolean Random Variables: Takes the value true or false.

A Bayesian Network
A Bayesian network is made up of:
1. A Directed Acyclic Graph
A
C D
2. A set of tables for each node in the graph

A P(A) A B P(B|A) B D P(D|B) B C P(C|B)
false 0.6 false false 0.01 false false 0.02 false false 0.4
true 0.4 false true 0.99 false true 0.98 false true 0.6
true false 0.7 true false 0.05 true false 0.9
true true 0.3 true true 0.95 true true 0.1
A Directed Acyclic Graph
Each node in the graph is a A node X is a parent of

random variable another node Y if there is an
A arrow from node X to node Y
eg. A is a parent of B
B
C D
Informally, an arrow from

node X to node Y means X
has a direct influence on Y
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A Set of Tables for Each Node:
Each node Xi has a conditional
A P(A) A B P(B|A) probability distribution P(Xi |
false 0.6 false false 0.01
Parents(Xi)) that quantifies the
true 0.4 false true 0.99
true false 0.7
effect of the parents on the
true true 0.3 node
The parameters are the
probabilities in these
conditional probability tables
A
(CPTs)
B C P(C|B)
false false 0.4 B D P(D|B)
B false false 0.02
false true 0.6
true false 0.9 false true 0.98
true true 0.1 C D true false 0.05
true true 0.95
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A Set of Tables for Each
Node
Conditional Probability
Distribution for C given B
B C P(C|B)
false false 0.4
false true 0.6
true false 0.9
true true 0.1 For a given combination of values of the parents (B
in this example), the entries for P(C=true | B) and
P(C=false | B) must add up to 1
eg. P(C=true | B=false) + P(C=false |B=false )=1
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Bayesian Networks
Two important properties:
1. Encodes the conditional independence relationships between the variables in the graph
structure
2. Is a compact representation of the joint probability distribution over the variables
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Conditional Independence
The Markov condition: given its parents (P1, P2),
a node (X) is conditionally independent of its non-descendants (ND1,
ND2)
P1 P2
ND1 X ND2
C1 C2
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The Joint Probability Distribution
Due to the Markov condition, we can compute the joint probability
distribution over all the variables X1, …, Xn in the Bayesian net using the
formula:
P(Xi|Xi-1,........., X1) = P(Xi |Parents(Xi ) )
Where Parents(Xi) means the values of the Parents of the node Xi

with respect to the graph
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Using a Bayesian Network Example:
Using the network in the example, suppose we want to calculate:

P(A = true, B = true, C = true, D = true) This is from the graph
= P(A = true) * P(B = true | A = true) * structure
P(C = true | B = true) P( D = true | B = true)
= (0.4)*(0.3)*(0.1)*(0.95)
A
These numbers are from the
conditional probability tables
B
C D
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Inference
• Using a Bayesian network to compute probabilities is called
inference
• In general, inference involves queries of the form:
P( X | E )
E = The evidence variable(s)
X = The query variable(s)
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Conclusion
There are innumerable applications to Bayesian Networks in
Spam Filtering, Semantic Search, Information Retrieval, and
many more. For example, with a given symptom we can
predict the probability of a disease occurring with several
other factors contributing to the disease. Thus, the concept of
the Bayesian Network is introduced in this article along with
its implementation with a real-life example
17
THANK YOU
18

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Rajiv Gandhi University , Arunachal

Real world applications are probabilistic in nature,

The generalized form of Bayesian network that

A Bayesian network graph is made up of nodes and Arcs (directed

The Bayesian network has mainly two

Probability Primer Random Variables: Refers to an event and there is some

Boolean Random Variables: Takes the value true or false.

2. A set of tables for each node in the graph

Each node in the graph is a A node X is a parent of

Informally, an arrow from

Where Parents(Xi) means the values of the Parents of the node Xi

Using the network in the example, suppose we want to calculate:

X = The query variable(s)

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