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    Regression Analysis of Factors Influencing GDP of India: Quantitative Analysis For Management Project

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    Shishir Soodana
    This document summarizes a quantitative analysis project examining factors that influence India's GDP using regression analysis. Univariate regression models found GDP was highly correlated with agricultural output and money supply in India. A multivariate regression using four variables had strong fit but showed multicollinearity between agricultural output and other variables. The conclusion is that India's GDP has a close linear relationship with money supply and agricultural output and is also impacted by global crude oil prices in recent years.

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    Regression Analysis of Factors Influencing GDP of India: Quantitative Analysis For Management Project

    Uploaded by

    Shishir Soodana
    22 views21 pages
    This document summarizes a quantitative analysis project examining factors that influence India's GDP using regression analysis. Univariate regression models found GDP was highly correlated with agricultural output and money supply in India. A multivariate regression using four variables had strong fit but showed multicollinearity between agricultural output and other variables. The conclusion is that India's GDP has a close linear relationship with money supply and agricultural output and is also impacted by global crude oil prices in recent years.

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    This document summarizes a quantitative analysis project examining factors that influence India's GDP using regression analysis. Univariate regression models found GDP was highly correlated with agricultural output and money supply in India. A multivariate regression using four variables had strong fit but showed multicollinearity between agricultural output and other variables. The conclusion is that India's GDP has a close linear relationship with money supply and agricultural output and is also impacted by global crude oil prices in recent years.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
    22 views21 pages

    Regression Analysis of Factors Influencing GDP of India: Quantitative Analysis For Management Project

    Uploaded by

    Shishir Soodana
    This document summarizes a quantitative analysis project examining factors that influence India's GDP using regression analysis. Univariate regression models found GDP was highly correlated with agricultural output and money supply in India. A multivariate regression using four variables had strong fit but showed multicollinearity between agricultural output and other variables. The conclusion is that India's GDP has a close linear relationship with money supply and agricultural output and is also impacted by global crude oil prices in recent years.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
    of 21

    Quantitative Analysis for Management Project

    Regression Analysis of factors Influencing GDP of India

    PRESENTED BY - GROUP 10
    ANJU EKKA (PGP27202) NIKHIL M (PGP27226) R MAHESWARAN (PGP27238) SHISHIR POONACHA S (PGP27251) VENKATESH S R (PGP27259) VIGNESH N (PGP27260)

    Agenda
     Introduction  Data Analysis  Assumptions  Univariate Regression Model  Multivariate Regression model

    Data Analyzed
    Data Source: www.indiastat.com www.rbi.org.in Dependent Variable: Y: GDP of India Independent Variable: X1: Agricultural output in India X2: Global crude oil prices X3: Money supply in India X4: Area under agricultural production

    Assumptions
     Random Errors are independent  Homoscedasticity: Random Errors have the same variance

    Var(Ii )=W 2
     Mean effect of Random Errors is Zero

    E(Ii )= 0

    GDP v/s Agricultural Output

    Good linear fit R squared = 0.670 Adjusted R squared = 0.662

    GDP v/s Agricultural Output


    Agricultural output
    3500000 3000000 2500000 2000000 1500000 1000000 500000 0 131848.22 199458.12 129468.15 108407.04 179429.55 203635.32 174790.45 111168.9 145543.83 96974.64 143481.6 99769.92 176419.2 80131.2 74253.2 191255.66 -500000 169928.77 129583.41 198372.16 94055.83 89409.27 196827.3 82061.8 Y Predicted Y Y

    Agricultural output

    Agricultural output
    150000 100000 50000 Residuals 0 -50000 0 -100000 -150000 -200000 Agricultural output 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000

    Predicted Y closely mirrors actual Y

    GDP v/s Crude Oil

    Bad linear fit ; R squared and adjusted R squared very low

    GDP v/s Crude Oil

    Global crude oil prices


    150000 100000 50000 Residuals 0 -50000 0 -100000 -150000 -200000 global crude oil prices 20 40 60 80 100 120

    Errors not normally distributed

    GDP (last 10 years) vs Global crude oil (last 10 years)

    Better linear fit over last 10 years ; variable to watch out for in the future

    GDP v/s Money Supply

    High linear fit ; R squared = 0.994 ; adjusted R squared = 0.987

    GDP v/s Money Supply


    Money supply
    3500000 3000000 2500000 2000000 1500000 1000000 500000 0 -500000

    Y Predicted Y 6244 7136 8510 10331 12406 15968 21230 27432 37873 54632 75696 97088 138757 187662 257547 355167 476535 697494 897933 1243411 1621557 2094670 2740681 Money supply

    Money supply
    150000 100000 Residuals 50000 0 -50000 0 -100000 -150000 -200000 money supply 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000

    Predicted Y follows actual Y

    GDP v/s Area Under Production

    Bad linear fit ; R squared = 0.200 adjusted R squared = 0.181

    GDP v/s Area Under Production

    Area under agricultural production


    150000 100000 Residuals 50000 0 -50000 0 -100000 -150000 -200000 Agricultural area 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

    Unequal variance ; Assumptions invalidated for this variable

    Multivariate Regression

    4 variables

    Good linear fit ; R squared = 0.996 ; Adjusted R squared = 0.995

    Multivariate Regression

    4 variables

    VIF high for agricultural output indicating multi-collinearity Corresponding eigen value is also very low

    Multivariate Regression

    4 variables

    Multivariate Regression

    step wise

    Area under agricultural production has been excluded due to multi collinearity Durbin Watson = 0.888 ; indicates positively correlated residuals

    Conclusion
     Regression model gives a good linear fit for GDP  GDP very closely related to money supply in economy  GDP also depends heavily on agricultural output  Global crude oil prices impacting GDP in recent times

    Thank You

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