GCSE: Probability

Dr J Frost (jfrost@tiffin.kingston.sch.uk)
GCSE Pack References: 208-215

Last modified: 15th April 2015

GCSE Specification
208. Write probabilities using fractions, percentages or decimals
209. Compare experimental data and theoretical probabilities. Compare
relative frequencies from samples of different sizes.
210. Find the probability of successive events, such as several throws of a
single die.
Identify different mutually exclusive outcomes and know that the sum of the
probabilities of all these outcomes is 1.
211. Estimate the number of times an event will occur, given the probability
and the number of trials.
212. List all outcomes for single events, and for two successive events,
systematically. Use and draw sample space diagrams
213. Understand conditional probabilities. Use a tree diagram to calculate
conditional probability.
214. Solve more complex problems involving combinations of outcomes.
215. Understand selection with or without replacement. Draw a probability
tree diagram based on given information.
RECAP: How to write probabilities

Probability of winning the UK lottery:

1 in 14,000,000
? ___1___
?
Odds Form 14000000
Fractional Form

0.000000714
? 0.0000714%
?
Decimal Form Percentage Form

Which is best in this case?

RECAP: Combinatorics
Combinatorics is the ‘number of ways of arranging something’.
We could consider how many things could do in each ‘slot’, then multiply these numbers
together.

1 How many 5 letter English words could there theoretically be?

e.g. B I L B O

26 x 26 x 26 x 26 ? x 26 = 26 5
2 How many 5 letter English words with distinct letters could there be?

S M A U G

26 x 25 x 24 x 23 ? x 22 = 7893600

3 How many ways of arranging the letters in SHELF?

E L F H S

5 x 4 x 3 x 2? x 1 = 5! (“5 factorial”)
STARTER: Probability Puzzles
Recall that:

In pairs/groups or otherwise, work out the probability of the following:

If I toss a coin twice, I see a Heads and Seeing exactly two heads in four throws of a coin.
1 5
a Tails (in either order).
?
? I randomly pick a number from 1 to 4, four times,
N
If I toss a coin three times, I see a 2 and the values form a ‘run’ of 1 to 4 in any order
2
Heads and 1 Tail. (e.g. 1234, 4231, ...).
? ?
3 In 3 throws of a coin, a Heads never NN After shuffling a pack of cards, the cards in each
follows a Tails.
suit are all together.
?
?
4 Throwing three square numbers on a NNN I have a bag of different colours of marbles and of
die in a row. OMG each. What’s the probability that upon picking of
them, they’re all of different colours?
?
?
How can we find the probability of an event?
1. We might just know! 2. We can do an experiment and count
outcomes

We could throw the dice 100 times for

For a fair die, we know example, and count how many times we see
that the probability of each outcome.
each outcome is , by
definition of it being a
Outcome 1 2 3 4 5 6
fair die.
Count 27 13 10 30 15 5
R.F.
?

This is known as a: This is known as an:

Theoretical Probability Experimental Probability
When we know the underlying Also known as the relative frequency , it is
probability of an ?
event. a probability based on observing counts.
?
Check your understanding

Question 1: If we flipped a (not necessarily fair) coin 10 times

and saw 6 Heads, then is the true probability of getting a
Head?

No. It might for example be a fair coin: If we throw a fair coin 10 times we
wouldn’t necessarily see 5 heads. In fact we could have seen 6 heads! So the
? only provides a “sensible guess” for
relative frequency/experimental probability
the true probability of Heads, based on what we’ve observed.

Question 2: What can we do to make the experimental

probability be as close as possible to the true (theoretical)
probability of Heads?
Flip the coin lots of times. I we threw a coin just twice for example and saw 0
Heads, it’s hard to know how unfair our coin is. But if we threw it say 1000 times
and saw 200 heads, then we’d have a much ? more accurate probability.
The law of large events states that as the number of trials becomes large, the
experimental probability becomes closer to the true probability.
RECAP: Estimating counts and probabilities

A spinner has the letters A, B

and C on it. I spin the spinner
Answer: ?
50 times, and see A 12 times.
What is the experimental
probability for P(A)?

The probability of getting a 6

Answer: on an unfair die is 0.3. I throw
times the die 200 times. How many
? sixes might you expect to get?
Test Your Understanding

A The table below shows the probabilities for spinning an A, B and C on a spinner. If I
spin the spinner 150 times, estimate the number of Cs I will see.

Outcome A B C
Probability 0.12 0.34 A

B
C
P(C) = 1 – 0.12 – 0.34 = 0.54
Estimate Cs seen?= 0.54 x 150 = 81

B I spin another spinner 120 times and see the

following counts:

Outcome A B C
A
Count 30 45 45

B
C

What is the relative frequency of B?

45/120 = 0.375
?
So far…
 208. Write probabilities using fractions, percentages or decimals
 209. Compare experimental data and theoretical probabilities. Compare
relative frequencies from samples of different sizes.
210. Find the probability of successive events, such as several throws of a
single die.
Identify different mutually exclusive outcomes and know that the sum of the
probabilities of all these outcomes is 1.
 211. Estimate the number of times an event will occur, given the probability
and the number of trials.
212. List all outcomes for single events, and for two successive events,
systematically. Use and draw sample space diagrams
213. Understand conditional probabilities. Use a tree diagram to calculate
conditional probability.
214. Solve more complex problems involving combinations of outcomes.
215. Understand selection with or without replacement. Draw a probability
tree diagram based on given information.
RECAP: Events
Examples of events:
Throwing a 6, throwing an odd number, tossing a heads, a randomly chosen person
having a height above 1.5m.

?
 The sample space is the set of all outcomes.
 An event is
a description of one or more outcomes.? It is a subset of the sample
space.
𝜉 The sample space

𝐴 𝐵
1
𝑃 ( 𝑨) = 2
3 3 5

We often use capital letters

1
to represent an event, then
use to mean the
From Year 7 you should be familiar with
probability of it.
representing sets using a Venn Diagram,
although you won’t need to at GCSE.
Independent Events !
When a fair coin is thrown, what’s the probability of:

?
And when 3 fair coins are thrown:
1
p(1st coin H and 2nd coin H and 3rd coin H) = ?
8

Therefore in this particular case we found the following

relationship between these probabilities:

P(event1 and event2 and event3)

= P(event1) x P(event2) x P(event3)
?
!Mutually Exclusive Events

If A and B are mutually exclusive events, they can’t happen

at the same time. Then:

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

! Independent Events
If A and B are independent events, then the outcome of
one doesn’t affect the other. Then:

P(A and B) = P(A) P(B)

But be careful…

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

1
P(num divisible by 2) = 2?

P(num divisible by 4) = 1?
4
1
P(num divisible by 2 and by 4) = ?
4

Why would it have been wrong to multiply the

probabilities?
Add or multiply probabilities?

Getting a 6 on a die and a T on a coin. +

 ×


Hitting a bullseye or a triple 20. +

 ×

Getting a HHT or a THT after three
throws of an unfair coin (presuming we’ve +
 ×

already worked out P(HHT) and P(THT).

Getting 3 on the first throw of a die

and a 4 on the second. +
 ×


Bart’s favourite colour being red and +

 ×

Pablo’s being blue.

Shaan’s favourite colour being red or blue. +

 ×

Independent?

Event 1 Event 2

Throwing a heads Throwing a heads

on the first flip. on the second flip.

No Yes


It rains tomorrow. It rains the day

after.
No
 Yes


That I will choose That I will choose

maths at A Level. Physics at A Level. No
 Yes

Have a garden Being called Bart.
gnome. 
No Yes

Test Your Understanding
a The probability that Kyle picks his nose today is 0.9. The probability that he
independently eats cabbage in the canteen today is 0.3. What’s the probability that
Kyle picks his nose, but doesn’t eat cabbage?

?
b I pick two cards from the following. What is the probability the first number is a 1
and the second number a 2?

1 2 2 3

?
I throw 100 dice and 50 coins. What’s the probability I get all sixes and all heads?
c

?
Tree Diagrams
Question: Given there’s 5 red balls and 2 blue balls. What’s the
probability that after two picks we have a red ball and a blue ball?
Bro Tip: Note that probabilities After first pick, there’s less
balls to choose from, so
generally go on the lines, and probabilities change.
events at the end.
4
?
6 R
5?
7 R
2? B
6
5 R
?
6
2
?
7
B
1
? B
6
Tree Diagrams

Question: Give there’s 5 red balls and 2 blue balls. What’s the
probability that after two picks we have a red ball and a blue ball?
We multiply across the matching
4
branches, then add these values.
6 R
5
7 R 5
2 B ?
21
6
5 R 5
?
6 21
2
7
B
10
1 B
P(red and blue) = ?
21
6
Summary

...with replacement:
The item is returned before another is chosen.
The probability of each event on each trial is
fixed.
...without replacement:
The item is not returned.
•Total balls decreases by 1 each time.
•Number of items of this type decreases by 1.

Note that if the question doesn’t specify which, e.g. “You pick two balls from a
bag”, then PRESUME WITHOUT REPLACEMENT.
Example (on your sheet)

3
?8

3
8?
?
5
8
5 5 25
?
× =
3
8
? 8 8 64
5
8?

( )(
3 5 5 3
× ?+ ×
8 8 8 8
Question 1

1 1 1
× =?
5 5 25

( 1 4
×
5 5
8
) (
4 1
)
+ ?× =
5 5
17
8
25
1−
25
= ?
25
Question 2

0.9
0.9
? 0.1
?
0.1 0.9
?
0.1
2
?
0.9 =0.81

2 ×0.1 ×?0.9=0.18
Question 3

4
5 13
?
14
9
13
?
5
9
?
14
13
8
13
9 8 36
× ? =
two consonants? 14 13 91

( 5
×
14 13)(
9 9
+ ? ×
5
14 13)=
45
91
Question 4

2
9
3
?
10
7
9
?
3
7
?
10
9
6
9

( 3 7
)( 7 3
)
× + ? × =
10 9 10 9
7
30
7 23
=
30?
1−
30
Question 5 – “The Birthday Paradox”

𝟑𝟔𝟒
?
𝟑𝟔𝟓

𝟑𝟔𝟑
?
𝟑𝟔𝟓

𝟑𝟔𝟓 𝟑𝟔𝟒 𝟑𝟔𝟑 𝟑𝟑𝟔

× × × …× =𝟎 . 𝟐𝟗𝟑𝟕…
𝟑𝟔𝟓 𝟑𝟔𝟓 𝟑𝟔𝟓 ? 𝟑𝟔𝟓

?
That’s surprisingly likely!
Question 6

64
? 110
Question 7 (Algebraic Trees)

𝑝
4
𝑝
4

𝑝 𝑝 1
× ?=
4 4 16
Question 8

𝑏 −1
𝑏 9
10

?
Question N
[Maclaurin M68] I have 44 socks in my drawer, each either red or black. In the dark I
randomly pick two socks, and the probability that they do not match is . How many of
the 44 socks are red?

Suppose there are red socks. There are therefore grey socks.

?
Doing without a tree: Listing outcomes
It’s usually quicker to just list
the outcomes rather than
draw a tree.

BGG:

GBG: ? Working
GGB:

Answer = 1904
?
4495
Test Your Understanding
Q I have a bag consisting of 6 red balls, 4 blue and 3 green. I take three balls out of
the bag at random. Find the probability that the balls are the same colour.

RRR:
GGG:
BBB: ?

What’s the probability they’re of different colours:

N
RGB:
Each of the orderings of RGB will have the same probability.
So
?
Probability Past Paper Questions

Provided on sheet.
Remember:
1. List the possible events that match.
2. Find the probability of each (by multiplying).
3. Add them together.
Past Paper Questions

?
Past Paper Questions

?
Past Paper Questions

?
Past Paper Questions

2
? 42

16
? 42
Past Paper Questions

222
380

?
Past Paper Questions

64
? 110
Past Paper Questions

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Past Paper Questions